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Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 4
Dolphins (1-2) vs Raiders (0-3) (London)—Must-win game for Miami QB Tannehill or off to bench he goes, as Fish have bye on deck; Miami scored 10-15 points in pair of 19-point losses last two weeks- they’re 9 for last 31 on 3rd down, 4-9 as a favorite under Philbin. Oakland scored 14-14-9 points in 0-3 start with rookie QB Carr under center; they didn’t have takeaway in last two games (-5), are 12-16 as underdog under Allen. Expect Miami to run more after dropping back 100 times last two games, with 41 runs. Dolphins won 10 of last 12 series games, winning last four by average score of 34-15- winning side scored 33+ points in five of last six series games. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-2 vs spread; AFC East non-divisional favorites are 1-5.
Packers (1-2) @ Bears (2-1)—Green Bay covered once in last seven games where spread was 3 or less points; they won eight of last nine series games, winning last four visits here, by 10-8-7-5 points, but Pack’s OL is struggling- they ran ball for 78.7 ypg in 1-2 start, gaining total of just 478 yards in two road losses. Don’t forget Pack also trailed Jets 21-3 in home opener, before rallying. Bears failed to cover last three games as a home underdog; they outscored foes 44-15 in second half of three games, winning two of three despite losing field position in all three games. Chicago used stingy red zone defense (16 points/six trips) to steal win in Swamp Monday night, but their secondary was beaten up pretty good. Bears are second in NFL at getting first downs (13) via penalty.
Bills (2-1) @ Texans (2-1)—Ryan Fitzpatrick was 20-33 in four years as Buffalo’s starting QB, now he goes against Bills, who won two of three visits here in series where road team won four of six meetings. Bills had huge edge in field position (14-22 yards in two wins, thanks to +4 turnover ratio; without it last week, they averaged just 4.8 ypp and had 101 penalty yards. Houston was just 2-12 on third down in Swamp last week, after being 16-29 in first two games. Foster’s hamstring is an issue; Blue had 78 yards on ground vs Giants. Buffalo is just 6-15-1 in last 22 games as a road dog, even with the win at Chicago. Texans are 1-5 in last six games as a home favorite. AFC South teams are 4-6 vs spread out of division; dogs are 8-0 vs spread in non-divisional games involving an AFC East team (7-0 as underdogs).
Titans (1-2) @ Colts (1-2)—Tennessee QB Locker was banged up last week, status unknown here; Titans are 1-10 in last 11 series games, losing last five, last four by 8 or less points- they lost last six visits here, with four of six by 8+ points. Tennessee has only two TDs on 22 drives last two games, after decisive win at Arrowhead in opener; they converted 4 of 22 on third down in losses (lost field position by 7-12 yards), 7-16 in win (+7 field position). Indy got well against awful Jaguars last week; they’ve scored 31.7 ppg in 1-2 start; they’ve scored 10 TDs with only eight 3/outs. Colts outscored last two opponents 47-6 in first half. Tennessee is 25-17 in last 42 games as a road dog; Colts are 5-6 as home favorites under Pagano. All three Titan games this season stayed under total.
Lions (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)—Jets’ OC Marty Mornhinweg was 5-27 as Lions’ head coach in 2001-02; somehow he keeps getting jobs. Jets had one TD in six red zone drives in frustrating 27-19 home loss to Chicago Monday; Smith threw awful pick in end zone, threw a pick-6 on first drive and Gang Green fumbled away two punts, handing Chicago 14 points in game where Jets outgained Bears 414-257. Jets won last three series games by 17-7-3 points; Lions split four visits here, but last one was in ’06. Detroit was 21-33 on third down in its two wins, 6-15 in loss; they’ve turned ball over three times in each of last two games, but their defense outscored Pack offense 9-7 in divisional win last week. Lions are 4-8 vs spread in game after their last 12 wins; Jets are 6-2 as home underdogs under Ryan.
Panthers (2-1) @ Ravens (2-1)—Steve Smith’s old team visits Charm City as lot of distractions loom in Baltimore; Panthers won 23-21 in only visit here , in ’06. Ravens are off pair of divisional wins with trip to Indy on deck; all six of their TD drives this season have been 80+ yards- they didn’t have takeaway in two of first three games, won in Cleveland despite allowing 10.9 yards per pass attempt. Panthers got manhandled at home by Steelers last week, allowing 264 rush yards; they've covered seven of last eight games as a road dog. Baltimore ran ball for 157-160 yards last two games- they have four TDs, seven FGs in last 11 red zone trips. Ravens are 6-8 in last 14 games as a home favorite. AFC North teams are 4-0 vs spread out of division; NFC South teams are 2-4.
Bucs (0-3) @ Steelers (2-1)—Tampa Bay lost OC Tedford (heart) for indefinite period, so they're without competent OC, as HC Smith is defensive guy; Bucs had three extra days to prepare after getting waxed in Atlanta, but there's been nothing good for them so far, losing at home to two backup QBs, then losing 56-14 in game where they had four takeaways (-1). Steelers didn’t have takeaway in first two games, were outscored 40-6 in second half of those games, then went to Carolina and pushed Panthers around; they’ve had problems with penalties, getting tagged for 86-75-91 yards in first three games. Pitt won eight of nine series games, winning last four, last three by 10+ points. Bucs were outscored 79-15 in losing three visits here, with last visit in ’06; they're 9-14 in last 23 games as a road underdog. NFL-wide, non-divisional home favorites are 11-16 vs spread.
Jaguars (0-3) @ Chargers (2-1)—Rookie QB Bortles gets first NFL start here, after Jags 0-3 start; since halftime of opener, Jax has been outscored 119-27, losing non-divisional road games by 17-31 points- they were outscored 51-7 in first half of last two games, 54-3 in second half of their two road games. Since 2006, San Diego has covered only three of 13 games as a double digit favorite; Chargers followed up home upset of Seattle with solid win at Buffalo; they’ve moved chains 46.7% of time on third down, won field position in all three games, by 8-14-7 yards. Loss of Mathews/Woodhead at RB means Rivers should throw ball more; Indy’s Luck was 33-43/385 against Jax defense last week. Over last 3+ years, Jaguars are 8-5 against spread as a double digit underdog.
Eagles (3-0) @ 49ers (1-2)—Niners been outscored 52-3 in second half of games; they’ve had 36 penalties for 305 yards, allowed 17 first downs via penalty, most in NFL. In come Eagles, first NFL ever to start 3-0 after trailing by 10+ points in all three games. Philly scored 30+ points in all three games, have 17 plays of 20+ yards, outscored foes 74-24 in second half of games- they’re 19-8 in last 27 games as a road underdog. 49ers have only one takeaway in last two games; they’re 15-7-1 as home favorites under Harbaugh, 0-1 this year. Iggles won five of last six series games, winning last four visits here in series where road team won four of last five meetings. All three 49er games this season stayed under total.
Falcons (2-1) @ Vikings (1-2)—Rookie QB Bridgewater gets first start here for Minnesota, which was outscored 50-16 in first two games without Peterson, running ball 41 times for 113 yards (ran it for 30-186 in opener with Peterson). Vikings have no takeaways in last two games; they’re 13-11 in last 24 games as a road dog. Falcons had three extra days to prep for this after crushing Bucs in Thursday nighter last week; they lost eight of last nine road games SU, are 12-7-1 as road favorites under Smith. Vikings played good defense last week, holding Saints to 20 points and two plays of 20+ yards. Atlanta won three of last four series games, won three of last four visits to Metrodome, which no longer exists.
Saints (1-2) @ Cowboys (2-1)—Dallas rallied back from down 21-0 to win at St Louis last week, but if Rams gained 448 yards on them, Brees has to be licking chops as he comes home to play. NO defense held AP-less Vikings without TD last week, after allowing 37-26 points in narrow road losses in first two games; Saints lost seven of last ten road games SU, failed to cover last six games as a road favorite. Cowboys are running ball for 156.7 ypg, very strong, but they’ve also had RB lose a fumble in five straight games. Saints won eight of last nine series games, whacking Dallas 49-17 LY- they’ve won last four visits here, averaged 37.7 ppg in last three series games, in series where road team won five of last six games.
Patriots (2-1) @ Chiefs (1-2)— NE has six TDs in three games; one on blocked FG return, another on a 1-yard drive; they’ve yet to gain more than 315 yards in any game, all while racking up 322 penalty yards to start season. Luckily for them they’re +7 in turnovers, with no giveaways in last two games. Chiefs got first win last week in Miami; they’re 3-5 in last eight games as home underdogs. KC ran ball for 133-174 yards in last two games, converting 15-32 on 3rd down after going 1-12 in opening loss to Titans. Pats covered once in last seven games as road favorite. KC won five of last six series games; Patriots lost six of last seven visits here, but last visit was in ’05. Belichick was 4-0 vs Reid when Reid was in Philly, including close Super Bowl win.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 4
Dolphins (1-2) vs Raiders (0-3) (London)—Must-win game for Miami QB Tannehill or off to bench he goes, as Fish have bye on deck; Miami scored 10-15 points in pair of 19-point losses last two weeks- they’re 9 for last 31 on 3rd down, 4-9 as a favorite under Philbin. Oakland scored 14-14-9 points in 0-3 start with rookie QB Carr under center; they didn’t have takeaway in last two games (-5), are 12-16 as underdog under Allen. Expect Miami to run more after dropping back 100 times last two games, with 41 runs. Dolphins won 10 of last 12 series games, winning last four by average score of 34-15- winning side scored 33+ points in five of last six series games. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-2 vs spread; AFC East non-divisional favorites are 1-5.
Packers (1-2) @ Bears (2-1)—Green Bay covered once in last seven games where spread was 3 or less points; they won eight of last nine series games, winning last four visits here, by 10-8-7-5 points, but Pack’s OL is struggling- they ran ball for 78.7 ypg in 1-2 start, gaining total of just 478 yards in two road losses. Don’t forget Pack also trailed Jets 21-3 in home opener, before rallying. Bears failed to cover last three games as a home underdog; they outscored foes 44-15 in second half of three games, winning two of three despite losing field position in all three games. Chicago used stingy red zone defense (16 points/six trips) to steal win in Swamp Monday night, but their secondary was beaten up pretty good. Bears are second in NFL at getting first downs (13) via penalty.
Bills (2-1) @ Texans (2-1)—Ryan Fitzpatrick was 20-33 in four years as Buffalo’s starting QB, now he goes against Bills, who won two of three visits here in series where road team won four of six meetings. Bills had huge edge in field position (14-22 yards in two wins, thanks to +4 turnover ratio; without it last week, they averaged just 4.8 ypp and had 101 penalty yards. Houston was just 2-12 on third down in Swamp last week, after being 16-29 in first two games. Foster’s hamstring is an issue; Blue had 78 yards on ground vs Giants. Buffalo is just 6-15-1 in last 22 games as a road dog, even with the win at Chicago. Texans are 1-5 in last six games as a home favorite. AFC South teams are 4-6 vs spread out of division; dogs are 8-0 vs spread in non-divisional games involving an AFC East team (7-0 as underdogs).
Titans (1-2) @ Colts (1-2)—Tennessee QB Locker was banged up last week, status unknown here; Titans are 1-10 in last 11 series games, losing last five, last four by 8 or less points- they lost last six visits here, with four of six by 8+ points. Tennessee has only two TDs on 22 drives last two games, after decisive win at Arrowhead in opener; they converted 4 of 22 on third down in losses (lost field position by 7-12 yards), 7-16 in win (+7 field position). Indy got well against awful Jaguars last week; they’ve scored 31.7 ppg in 1-2 start; they’ve scored 10 TDs with only eight 3/outs. Colts outscored last two opponents 47-6 in first half. Tennessee is 25-17 in last 42 games as a road dog; Colts are 5-6 as home favorites under Pagano. All three Titan games this season stayed under total.
Lions (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)—Jets’ OC Marty Mornhinweg was 5-27 as Lions’ head coach in 2001-02; somehow he keeps getting jobs. Jets had one TD in six red zone drives in frustrating 27-19 home loss to Chicago Monday; Smith threw awful pick in end zone, threw a pick-6 on first drive and Gang Green fumbled away two punts, handing Chicago 14 points in game where Jets outgained Bears 414-257. Jets won last three series games by 17-7-3 points; Lions split four visits here, but last one was in ’06. Detroit was 21-33 on third down in its two wins, 6-15 in loss; they’ve turned ball over three times in each of last two games, but their defense outscored Pack offense 9-7 in divisional win last week. Lions are 4-8 vs spread in game after their last 12 wins; Jets are 6-2 as home underdogs under Ryan.
Panthers (2-1) @ Ravens (2-1)—Steve Smith’s old team visits Charm City as lot of distractions loom in Baltimore; Panthers won 23-21 in only visit here , in ’06. Ravens are off pair of divisional wins with trip to Indy on deck; all six of their TD drives this season have been 80+ yards- they didn’t have takeaway in two of first three games, won in Cleveland despite allowing 10.9 yards per pass attempt. Panthers got manhandled at home by Steelers last week, allowing 264 rush yards; they've covered seven of last eight games as a road dog. Baltimore ran ball for 157-160 yards last two games- they have four TDs, seven FGs in last 11 red zone trips. Ravens are 6-8 in last 14 games as a home favorite. AFC North teams are 4-0 vs spread out of division; NFC South teams are 2-4.
Bucs (0-3) @ Steelers (2-1)—Tampa Bay lost OC Tedford (heart) for indefinite period, so they're without competent OC, as HC Smith is defensive guy; Bucs had three extra days to prepare after getting waxed in Atlanta, but there's been nothing good for them so far, losing at home to two backup QBs, then losing 56-14 in game where they had four takeaways (-1). Steelers didn’t have takeaway in first two games, were outscored 40-6 in second half of those games, then went to Carolina and pushed Panthers around; they’ve had problems with penalties, getting tagged for 86-75-91 yards in first three games. Pitt won eight of nine series games, winning last four, last three by 10+ points. Bucs were outscored 79-15 in losing three visits here, with last visit in ’06; they're 9-14 in last 23 games as a road underdog. NFL-wide, non-divisional home favorites are 11-16 vs spread.
Jaguars (0-3) @ Chargers (2-1)—Rookie QB Bortles gets first NFL start here, after Jags 0-3 start; since halftime of opener, Jax has been outscored 119-27, losing non-divisional road games by 17-31 points- they were outscored 51-7 in first half of last two games, 54-3 in second half of their two road games. Since 2006, San Diego has covered only three of 13 games as a double digit favorite; Chargers followed up home upset of Seattle with solid win at Buffalo; they’ve moved chains 46.7% of time on third down, won field position in all three games, by 8-14-7 yards. Loss of Mathews/Woodhead at RB means Rivers should throw ball more; Indy’s Luck was 33-43/385 against Jax defense last week. Over last 3+ years, Jaguars are 8-5 against spread as a double digit underdog.
Eagles (3-0) @ 49ers (1-2)—Niners been outscored 52-3 in second half of games; they’ve had 36 penalties for 305 yards, allowed 17 first downs via penalty, most in NFL. In come Eagles, first NFL ever to start 3-0 after trailing by 10+ points in all three games. Philly scored 30+ points in all three games, have 17 plays of 20+ yards, outscored foes 74-24 in second half of games- they’re 19-8 in last 27 games as a road underdog. 49ers have only one takeaway in last two games; they’re 15-7-1 as home favorites under Harbaugh, 0-1 this year. Iggles won five of last six series games, winning last four visits here in series where road team won four of last five meetings. All three 49er games this season stayed under total.
Falcons (2-1) @ Vikings (1-2)—Rookie QB Bridgewater gets first start here for Minnesota, which was outscored 50-16 in first two games without Peterson, running ball 41 times for 113 yards (ran it for 30-186 in opener with Peterson). Vikings have no takeaways in last two games; they’re 13-11 in last 24 games as a road dog. Falcons had three extra days to prep for this after crushing Bucs in Thursday nighter last week; they lost eight of last nine road games SU, are 12-7-1 as road favorites under Smith. Vikings played good defense last week, holding Saints to 20 points and two plays of 20+ yards. Atlanta won three of last four series games, won three of last four visits to Metrodome, which no longer exists.
Saints (1-2) @ Cowboys (2-1)—Dallas rallied back from down 21-0 to win at St Louis last week, but if Rams gained 448 yards on them, Brees has to be licking chops as he comes home to play. NO defense held AP-less Vikings without TD last week, after allowing 37-26 points in narrow road losses in first two games; Saints lost seven of last ten road games SU, failed to cover last six games as a road favorite. Cowboys are running ball for 156.7 ypg, very strong, but they’ve also had RB lose a fumble in five straight games. Saints won eight of last nine series games, whacking Dallas 49-17 LY- they’ve won last four visits here, averaged 37.7 ppg in last three series games, in series where road team won five of last six games.
Patriots (2-1) @ Chiefs (1-2)— NE has six TDs in three games; one on blocked FG return, another on a 1-yard drive; they’ve yet to gain more than 315 yards in any game, all while racking up 322 penalty yards to start season. Luckily for them they’re +7 in turnovers, with no giveaways in last two games. Chiefs got first win last week in Miami; they’re 3-5 in last eight games as home underdogs. KC ran ball for 133-174 yards in last two games, converting 15-32 on 3rd down after going 1-12 in opening loss to Titans. Pats covered once in last seven games as road favorite. KC won five of last six series games; Patriots lost six of last seven visits here, but last visit was in ’05. Belichick was 4-0 vs Reid when Reid was in Philly, including close Super Bowl win.
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