The Bum's NFL September Best Bets-Trends-Stats Etc !

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NFL

Thursday, September 11


Thursday night football could see thundershowers

When the ball is kicked off at M&T Bank Stadium it may be soaring through a thunderstorm. There is a 61 percent chance that the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens game will be playing with thundershowers.

The Ravens are currently a 2.5-point home fave with the total set at 44.5.

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Pitt looks for road win

September 10, 2014


Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Baltimore -3, Total: 44

Division rivals clash Thursday night when the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens.

In Week 1 of the NFL season, both of these teams were involved in sloppy affairs. Pittsburgh came away with a victory in the opening week, but the Ravens were unable to do the same. Now these teams square off against one another in what should be an excellent game with a lot of emotion. Last season, Baltimore won at home against Pittsburgh 22-20 as three-point favorites. The Steelers won their home game against the Ravens 19-16 as 2.5-point favorites. In the past three meetings between these teams, Pittsburgh is 3-0 ATS and the two teams have gone Over the total in two of the contests.

This game has the potential to be a shootout, despite the defensive reputation of both franchises. Pittsburgh allowed Brian Hoyer to throw for 230 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions, and Baltimore QB Joe Flacco is a far superior quarterback who is coming off of a contest in which he threw for 345 yards on an astounding 62 attempts. The Ravens will need to contain Pittsburgh star RB Le’Veon Bell, who rushed for 109 yards and a touchdown while also catching six passes for 88 yards against the Browns.

Two trends to consider are that Mike Tomlin is 3-12 ATS (20%) on the road in the first month of the season as the Steelers head coach, but home teams where the line is +3 to -3, coming off a loss in the first month of the season, after closing out the previous season with 2+ straight defeats, are a pitiful 28-62 ATS (31%) since 1983.

WR Lance Moore (groin) is questionable for the Steelers and CB Lardarius Webb (back) is questionable for the Ravens.

At the end of the second quarter of the season opener, Shaun Suisham kicked a 34-yard field goal to give the Steelers a 27-3 lead over the Cleveland Browns. The Steelers, however, would pretty much mail it in the rest of the game. They collectively blew a 24-point lead in almost one quarter of action. By the time there was 11 minutes left in the fourth quarter, these teams were tied at 27.

The offense in the game stalled at that point, with both teams failing to score until Suisham’s game-winning field goal with no time remaining. WR Antonio Brown was unguardable all day, catching five balls for 116 yards and a touchdown. WR Markus Wheaton lived up to the hype of being a breakout player this season, catching six passes for 97 yards. This tandem of Brown and Wheaton was able to get open whenever they pleased and QB Ben Roethlisberger had no trouble finding them.

New Steelers RB LeGarrette Blount was also able to barrel his way into the end zone for a touchdown. The Steelers defense will need to be better against Baltimore on Thursday. They allowed 183 rushing yards and 230 passing yards to what really is a weak Browns offense.

The Ravens had taken a 16-15 lead with just about six minutes left in the fourth quarter after Steve Smith caught an 80-yard touchdown from Joe Flacco. The Ravens failed to get the two-point conversion and took the field to defend the Bengals on their next drive. Right away, QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green connected on a 77-yard touchdown and that put the Bengals up 21-16. They would also get their two-point conversion on a pass from Dalton to WR Mohamed Sanu. Trailing 23-16, the Ravens were unable to score the rest of the game.

The Ravens offense was able to move the ball effectively but just couldn’t finish when they needed to. WR Steve Smith caught seven passes for 118 yards and a touchdown in his Ravens debut. Dennis Pitta hauled in 10 catches for 83 yards.

On the ground, Bernard Pierce lost a fumble for Baltimore and was replaced by Justin Forsett, who really performed well. Forsett rushed for 70 yards and a touchdown while also catching five passes for 14 yards. They will need to find a way to score touchdowns against the Steelers.

Baltimore’s defense was excellent against the rush, allowing only 79 yards on the ground. Outside of the A.J. Green touchdown, they would’ve been able to live with their performance against the pass. They can’t allow big plays like that against Antonio Brown and the Steelers.

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Week 2 Look-Ahead

September 9, 2014


Are the Miami Dolphins a real threat to win the AFC East?

Understanding one week doesn't make a season, that second-half performance against New England was an eye-opener. The defense got after Tom Brady and generally dominated. The offense looked multi-faceted. As someone pleased with the result at halftime, the Patriots' collapse appeared to be less about their ineptitude as it was Miami simply imposing its will.

Knowshon Moreno was a force, providing stability and creating balance for an offense that has lacked a reliable ground game for years. Ryan Tannehill made mostly great decisions and accurate throws. Mike Wallace, moved around in different formations, looked every bit the No. 1 the Dolphins are paying him to be. Charles Clay was the matchup problem most assumed he would be.

In the first half, a Wallace drop foiled a potentially huge play, bringing up the same old questions about him. Tannehill was picked off. The Patriots racked up 248 yards and 20 points. Given the presence of its impressive cheerleaders, Miami barely looked like the second-best team on the field, much less the division.

So, what's real? Are the Patriots really going to miss Logan Mankins this much? Can an offense that regained the services of Rob Gronkowski really look as bad as it did in accumulating just 67 yards as Brady hit the ground time and time again? That's Week 2's biggest question mark heading into this next set of games as the routine intensifies, but obviously, there are others.

New England travels to Minnesota to meet the team that posted Week 1's most lopsided result, winning at St. Louis by four touchdowns. Brady provides a significant step up from Shaun Hill and Austin Davis, but Harrison Smith offered up a reminder that he's one of the league's best emerging safeties and the cornerback tandem of Captain Munnerlyn and Xavier Rhodes could do damage under the radar for weeks until people start noticing. Up front, and this where the questions come easiest, the changing of the guard from Jared Allen and Kevin Williams to the current younger group will be worth watching over the long haul.

After being dominated and losing a pair of defensive starters for the season, including linebacker Derrick Johnson, how do the Chiefs pick up the pieces? It's safe to say Andy Reid's second season at the helm hasn't started as smoothly as last season's 9-0 run, so this will be his first dose of true adversity as Kansas City attempts to rebound on the road at Denver and Miami the next two weeks. Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe must step up as leaders or they'll be 0-3 before the next time they take the field at Arrowhead.

The Broncos answered a few questions about how they intend to overcome Wes Welker's extended absence, with plan A apparently consisting of Julius Thomas' beast mode. Emmanuel Sanders is clearly capable, too, coming up with six catches and climbing right into the role of Manning security blanket.

His old teammates survived squandering a 27-3 lead, so the Steelers will be fine without the receiver who criticized Ben Roethlisberger's leadership once in Denver. In fact, replacement Markus Wheaton made the key reception off a Big Ben audible to set up Shaun Suisham's game-winner, but it's worth wondering why they needed such heroics in the first place.

What caused Pittsburgh's defensive breakdowns? Cleveland's Terrence West is an intriguing young back, but a rookie backup making his NFL debut can't be reaching the century mark on the ground against you. The Browns got back into the game by gashing the defense, creating easy play-action opportunities that let Brian Hoyer find a rhythm. Did the huge cushion simply lead to a situation where Pittsburgh let its guard down or was the letdown a warning sign?

Joe Flacco has the receivers to hurt the Steelers and will be looking to make up for horrible decisions that cost his team against Cincinnati. With the Ray Rice situation creating distractions on a short week, it's going to be on the typically laid-back Flacco to get the team on task as they look to avoid dropping consecutive home games to start the season.

Tampa Bay is the only other team in danger of an 0-2 start at home, having lost a divisional game where Carolina's Cam Newton was limited to giving his team quality pep talks while wearing sweatpants. Doug Martin hurt a knee yet is expected to be fine for Sunday's Rams visit, but the status of both offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford and Mankins, acquired to anchor the line, will likely be unknown until the weekend.

St. Louis has its own issues to deal with after being the only team that failed to score an offensive touchdown in Week 1. Hill's strained quad could keep him out of the Tampa game, which means Austin Davis would get his first career start since Case Keenum still isn't up to speed after being scooped up when Houston acquired Ryan Mallett. Who is Davis? That's a valid question. He played in a prolific spread offense under Larry Fedora at Southern Miss, winning the job as a freshman despite originally coming in as a walk-on. He went undrafted.

Speaking of quarterback issues, a buddy asked which current NFC East starter would be most likely to be benched first. While we're probably at least a few weeks away from an answer, the early leader would probably be Philadelphia's Nick Foles considering how vital the other three are to their respective franchises.

Yep, he's the only one in the division that won in Week 1, but looked just as shaky and turnover-prone as his QB cohorts.

How did Foles manage to look so bad that Mark Sanchez appeared to be an attractive alternative? Well, in a timing-based offense that requires accuracy and quick decisions, the QB who led the entire NFL with a 119.2 passer rating was holding the ball too long and all over the place when he did let it go. Erasing a 17-point deficit isn't going to look as easy as it did against Jacksonville, which means he's got to get right and not be the weak link on an otherwise explosive offense. Foles will duel with Andrew Luck in Indianapolis on Monday night.

The other legitimate contender to find himself holding a clipboard isn't Eli Manning or Tony Romo. What's Jason Garrett going to say? Brandon Weeden, get in there? Even if Ryan Nassib has a better command of new coordinator Sean McAdoo's offense, it's more of a failure on his end that a two-time Super Bowl winner seems so uncomfortable in it. The Giants are home for Arizona, which should have Tyrann Mathieu back to strengthen a defense that performed better than expected in their first test without Darnell Dockett and Daryl Washington, both out for the season.

Washington scored six points and Robert Griffin III tripped over his own feet on a handoff, fumbling in the red zone. He doesn't look as confident as he did pre-injury. While Daniel Snyder 's interests remain invested in his long-term success, Kirk Cousins is the most highly-regarded backup in the division and may be better suited for the offense given the receivers on the roster. If Griffin can't be the dual threat he once was and can't get his weapons into the end zone, at some point, Jay Gruden will have no choice but to seek an alternative. The Jaguars visit Fed Ex Field looking to apply the type of pressure they got on Foles in the opener, so Griffin will have his hands full.

Romo should, too, since Tennessee harassed the Chiefs all day and look like a possible sleeper to reach the postseason. Can they contain Dez Bryant? If that's not possible, do they have the firepower to pile up points against Dallas' vulnerable defense?

Just how good are the Titans?

Entering Week 2, that's one of many worthwhile questions that will slowly start deciphering the answers to.

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Stats - Week 2

September 10, 2014

It was Mark Twain who once said, “There are three kinds of lies – Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics.”

With Week One of the 2014 NFL season, and two weeks of college football action, now in the history book it’s time to examine how the games have been actually played on the field, as opposed to the scoreboard, from both an ‘ATS’ (Against The Spread) and a statistical ‘ITS’ (Inside The Stats) perspective.

Note that all results are ATS in games played this season through Monday, September 8th unless noted otherwise.

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

With two games under the belt for most college football teams let’s examine the relevant offensive and defensive stats compiled season to date.

Because we like to compare apples-to-apples, these are total yardage numbers compiled with a minimum of two games played against FBS teams only. No FCS contest results are used.

Good Offenses – Yards Per Game
-- Arizona 621, Alabama 579, Auburn 554, Western Kentucky 554

Bad Offenses – Yards Per Game
-- SMU 170.5, Florida Atlantic 172.5, Vanderbilt 222.5

Ugly Offense – Points Per Game
-- SMU 3, Florida Atlantic 3.5, Vanderbilt 5

Good Defenses – Yards Per Game
-- Penn State 261.5, Texas 261.5, La Monroe 268

Bad Defenses – Yards Per Game
-- Florida Atlantic 702, Fresno State 613.5, Rice 576

Ugly Defense – Points Per Game
-- Fresno State 55.5, Florida Atlantic 48.0, Rice 48.0

Inside the Stats

Football games are won on the field and the scoreboard. The gambling public reacts more to the score than the stats inside the game.

Finding teams who outplayed they opponent in the stats but lost the game and, conversely, those who won the game but lost the stats is an added edge that can help you when it comes to handicapping the games each week.

With that, here are the teams who won ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) last week; won the game but were out-gained by 100 or more yards:

College Football: USC and Virginia

These are the teams who lost ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) last week; lost the game but out-yarded their opponent by 100 or more yards:

College Football: Miami (Ohio) and Stanford

There were no such occurrences in the NFL.

In closing, here are the games this week involving ‘double inside-out’ stat results from last week – or teams off a phony SU win but stat loss playing an opponent off a SU loss but a stat win, with the phony loser listed first:

College Football: Army-Stanford and Virginia Tech-East Carolina

NFL: San Francisco-Chicago

It’s What’s Trending

From a weekly NFL column I am writing in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are the hottest trends on this week’s card supplied by my well-oiled machine, the database:

-- Baltimore is 14-1 SU at home in games off a loss, including 5-0 SU and ATS the last five.

-- Carolina is just 5-15 SU and 5-14-1 ATS in home openers since entering the league, including 0-8-1 ATS as a favorite.

-- Chicago is a mind-boggling 0-11-1 ATS in games after battling an AFC opponent, and also 0-8 SU and ATS in its last eight games in San Francisco.

-- Dallas is a dazzling 9-0 ATS as a dog in its last nine AFC tilts.

-- Miami is a meager 4-19 SU and 2-20-1 ATS in division games off a win when facing a foe off a SU underdog win.

Stat Of The Week

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is 10-0 SU and ATS in games off a loss in his NFL career.

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Tech Trends - Week 2

September 9, 2014


Thursday, Sept. 11

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE...Last five meetings decided by 3 or fewer. Steel has covered last four meetings in close fashion, and Tomlin 6-3 as road dog since 2012. Tomlin 9-4 last 13 as dog as well. Slight to Steelers and "over," based on series trends.



Sunday, Sept. 14

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


DETROIT at CAROLINA...Panthers 6-1-1 last 8 as home chalk. Carolina also "under" 7-2 last 9 as host. Lions 3-8 vs. line last 11 away. Panthers and :"under," based on team trends.


MIAMI at BUFFALO...Bills have won and covered 3 of last 4 meetings including last two at Orchard Park. Buffalo 7-2 vs. line last nine as host. If Dolphins dog note 7-2 mark in role LY. Dolphins "under" 30-17-2 since 2011, "unders" 6-1-1 last eight in series. "Under" and Bills, based on team and series trends.


JACKSONVILLE at WASHINGTON...Jags 6-15-1 as dog since late 2012. Also "over" 7-2 last nine away from home. But Skins 5-13 last 18 vs. number. Slight to "over," based on Jags "total" trends.


DALLAS at TENNESSEE...Dallas was 6-2 as dog LY and is 7-4 as road dog past two seasons. Titans 3-8-2 vs. line last 13 as host pre-Whisenhunt. Titans also "over" 7-2 last nine at home. "Over" and Cowboys, if dog, based on "totals" and team trends.


ARIZONA at NY GIANTS...If G-Men chalk note 7-2 mark last nine at role at Met Life Stadium. If dog note Coughlin 15-9 last 24 in role. If Cards dog note 6-3 mark in role LY. Cards 12-6-1 vs. line since late 2012. Slight to Cards, based on team trends.


NEW ENGLAND at MINNESOTA...Belichick 0-4 as road chalk LY but was 4-0 off SU loss in 2013. Pats "over" 21-11-1 away in reg. season since 2011. Vikes "over" 13-5 last 18 since late 2012. Also 6-1 as home dog since 2012. "Over" and Vikings, based on "totals" and team trends.


NEW ORLEANS at CLEVELAND...Browns "under" 15-9-1 since 2011. Saints 0-4 as road chalk LY, 1-7 vs. line on reg.-season road but 4-1vs. line off SU loss in 2013. "Under," based on "totals" trends.


ATLANTA at CINCINNATI...Cincy 6-15-1 as home chalk since 2009, Bengals also "over" 6-1 last seven at home LY. "Over" and Falcons, based on "totals" and team trends.


ST. LOUIS at TAMPA BAY...Rams only 2-6 as road dog LY after 7-1 mark in role in 2012. Rams won and covered last two years vs. Schiano Bucs, both "under" as well. TB 7-15-1 vs. line since mid 2012. "Under" and slight to Rams, based on team and "totals" trends.


SEATTLE at SAN DIEGO...Seahawks 25-11-1 vs. line since 2012, 10-2-1 last 13 away. Bolts 9-3-1 as dog since LY. Seahawks, based on team trends.


HOUSTON at OAKLAND...If Oakland favored note 6-17 mark at home in role since 2006. Raiders 13-23-1 vs. line since late in 2011 campaign. Texans, if dog, based on Raider home chalk woes.


NY JETS at GREEN BAY...Jets 6-3-1 as dog in 2013. Pack 20-10 as home chalk 2009-12 before 3-4 mark in role LY. Jets, based on team trends.


KANSAS CITY at DENVER...Denver has won SU last four vs. Chiefs and has covered last three. Series "under" 6-1 last seven, a departure from the many Denver "overs" past few years. Broncos "over" 24-10 at home in reg. season since late 2009. Broncos and slight to "over," based on team trends.


CHICAGO at SAN FRANCISCO...SF 15-6-1 vs. spread as reg.-season host since 2011. Bears "over" 11-4-1 in Trestman debut LY, 6-2 "over" away. 49ers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.



Monday, Sept. 15

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

PHILADELPHIA at INDIANAPOLIS...Colts 10-4 last 14 vs. line as host. Birds "over" 7-2 last nine away. Colts and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

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TOP POWER LINES

Users of our matchup reports are familiar with our Power Line ratings, calculated using both teams' ratings and home field advantage. The Top Power Lines tool offers a way to view and compare current Power Lines in one simple report, as well as the Power Line Edge, where the Power Line differs significantly from the current line.

NFL > (101) PITTSBURGH @ (102) BALTIMORE | 09/11/2014 - 08:25 PM

Line: BALTIMORE -3 ******* PowerLine: BALTIMORE -1
Edge On: BALTIMORE (2)

NFL > (265) ATLANTA @ (266) CINCINNATI | 09/14/2014 - 01:00 PM

Line: CINCINNATI -5 ******* PowerLine: CINCINNATI -11
Edge On: CINCINNATI (6)

NFL > (259) ARIZONA @ (260) NY GIANTS | 09/14/2014 - 01:00 PM

Line: NY GIANTS 2.5 ******* PowerLine: NY GIANTS 8
Edge On: NY GIANTS (5.5)

NFL > (253) MIAMI @ (254) BUFFALO | 09/14/2014 - 01:00 PM

Line: BUFFALO 1.5 ******* PowerLine: BUFFALO -3
Edge On: BUFFALO (4.5)

NFL > (251) DETROIT @ (252) CAROLINA | 09/14/2014 - 01:00 PM

Line: CAROLINA -3 ******* PowerLine: CAROLINA -5
Edge On: CAROLINA (2)

NFL > (267) ST LOUIS @ (268) TAMPA BAY | 09/14/2014 - 04:05 PM

Line: TAMPA BAY -4 ******* PowerLine: TAMPA BAY 0
Edge On: TAMPA BAY (4)

NFL > (271) HOUSTON @ (272) OAKLAND | 09/14/2014 - 04:25 PM

Line: OAKLAND 3 ******* PowerLine: OAKLAND -1
Edge On: OAKLAND (4)

NFL > (275) KANSAS CITY @ (276) DENVER | 09/14/2014 - 04:25 PM

Line: DENVER -12.5 ******* PowerLine: DENVER -10
Edge On: DENVER (2.5)

NFL > (277) CHICAGO @ (278) SAN FRANCISCO | 09/14/2014 - 08:30 PM

Line: SAN FRANCISCO -7 ******* PowerLine: SAN FRANCISCO -17
Edge On: SAN FRANCISCO (10)

NFL > (279) PHILADELPHIA @ (280) INDIANAPOLIS | 09/15/2014 - 08:35 PM

Line: INDIANAPOLIS -3 ******* PowerLine: INDIANAPOLIS 2
Edge On: INDIANAPOLIS (5)

[StarDust Bum]

Smoke and mirrors: NFL bettors shouldn't overract to these Week 1 results

One of the most important rules professional bettors live by is to never overreact to what takes place in Week 1 of the NFL season.

This is easier said than done, as football fans spend the summer months foaming at the mouth in anticipation of some real live game action. Therefore, when the first sixty minutes of a 17-week schedule comes to a conclusion, we tend to get overly excited by the big performances and unnecessarily critical of the poor showings.

Here’s a look at three teams that may be causing bettors and fans alike to overreact, based on what transpired this past weekend.

Atlanta Falcons (+5.5 at Cincinnati)

There’s no bigger showdown on the schedule for the Atlanta Falcons than a home date with division rival New Orleans and it took a flawless effort from quarterback Matt Ryan (31/43, 448 yards, 3 TDs), an overtime fumble committed by Saints wide receiver Marques Colston and two 50-plus yard field goals from Matt Bryant for Atlanta to escape with a 37-34 victory last Sunday.

The Falcons were expected to bounce back from last season’s dismal 4-12 campaign, but this organization shouldn’t be viewed as the 13-3 squad that advanced all the way to the NFC Championship game in 2012.

Don’t buy into any of the hype just yet and be sure to take note that the Falcons have already been bet from +4 to +5.5 for the team’s Week 2 non-conference matchup in Cincinnati.


Green Bay Packers (-9.5 vs. N.Y. Jets)

It doesn’t matter if it’s Joe Montana and Jerry Rice or the ’85 Bears, no team is going to look good in a primetime road showdown with the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field.

In two primetime home contests last season, the Seahawks hammered the San Francisco 49ers 29-3 and trashed the New Orleans Saints 34-7, -and those were two damn good football teams.

Green Bay got the royal treatment from the defending champs in Week 1, but the Packers are still the favorites to win the NFC North and are currently listed at 12/1 to win the Super Bowl at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

This franchise is far better than what we saw last Thursday night, as evidenced by a Week 2 line move from -8 to as high as -9.5 for Sunday’s home date against the New York Jets.


Detroit Lions (+2.5 at Carolina)

If a team is opening up the season at home on a Monday night, they’re guaranteed to benefit from an electric atmosphere that not only helps fuel the adrenaline coursing through the veins of its players, but also aids in preventing the opposition from finding a consistent rhythm.

Case in point: the Detroit Lions, who looked nothing like a franchise that has recorded just one winning season since 2001 in the team’s 35-14 dismantling of the New York Giants.

Tom Coughlin’s crew was lousy in all three phases of the game and made the Lions look like one of the most well-oiled machines in all of professional football. New head coach Jim Caldwell may have something cooking in Detroit, but it will take more than just a good effort against a lousy team for sharp bettors to buy into the hype.

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NFL

Thursday, September 11


Thursday Night Football weather update

The Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Baltimore Ravens Thursday night and there is some weather in the forecast before you make your wagers on the game.

There is currently a 58 percent chance of rain at kickoff with temperatures in the mid 70s. There will also be a 10 mile per hour wind blowing towards the southeast corner of M&T Bank Stadium.

The Ravens are currently 2;5-point home faves with the total sitting at 44.5.


Huge line move in Week 2 matchup

Since the New York Giants opened as slight favorites for their Week 2 matchup with the Arizona, bettors have hammered the Cardinals, resulting in the line moving significantly in their favor.

The Giants opened as at -1.5 and were as high as -2 before bettors started piling on the Cardinals. The line has moved a total of 4.5-points since then and now sits at Arizona -2.5.

The Cardinals showed they have a strong defense and can be clutch with their 18-17 win over San Diego, while the Giants looked completely lost against the Lions.

[StarDust Bum]

Reeling Ravens face archrival Steelers

September 10, 2014


Maybe the NFL schedule makers did the Baltimore Ravens a big favor.

Thursday night's game couldn't come any more quickly for the Ravens, allowing them to turn away from the turmoil of the Ray Rice release and concentrate on football. And with a visit by the bitter rival Steelers on the agenda, the game becomes even more of a relief for Baltimore.

''Obviously it's a little different not having Ray here and realizing we're not going to have him here,'' quarterback Joe Flacco said. ''Having said that, we have to move on.''

Pittsburgh, which beat Cleveland last week, is a 2 1-2 point underdog against the Ravens, who fell at home to Cincinnati.

The Steelers could stamp themselves as an AFC contender. As if the Steelers need more incentive against the Ravens.

And then there's the little dance Steelers coach Mike Tomlin did last season when Baltimore's Jacoby Jones was returning a kickoff. The league fined Tomlin $100,000 for sideline interference because he got in Jones' way - they didn't collide - while watching the videoboard.

Tomlin promises Jones will be ''safe'' at home.

''It's a nonfactor in terms of what I'm doing in terms of preparing for this opportunity,'' he said, ''and obviously what needs to happen for us in the stadium. I don't tote those bags.''

Baltimore is toting lots of baggage, a bit too much to win this one.

STEELERS, 21-17

No. 14 Detroit (plus 2 1-2) at No. 12 Carolina

Liked what we saw from Panthers minus Newton more than what we saw from Lions last week.

BEST BET: PANTHERS, 30-23

No. 10 Arizona (plus 1) at No. 29 New York Giants

Cardinals spoiled our Upset Special in Week 1 by edging Chargers. This time they are ...

UPSET SPECIAL: CARDINALS, 21-13

No. 5 Philadelphia (plus 3) at No. 9 Indianapolis, Monday night

First team to 50 points wins? Not quite, but ...

COLTS 38-34

No. 8 New England (minus 3) at No. 20 Minnesota

Patriots ran out of gas in Week 1, Vikings never let off the gas. Still ...

PATRIOTS, 28-20

No. 15 Miami (minus 1) at No. 21 Buffalo

New owners on the way for Bills. Old habits, like losing, return.

DOLPHINS, 19-13

No. 27 Jacksonville (plus 6) at No. 28 Washington

Not sure the Redskins should be favored by 6 over Jacksonville State.

REDSKINS, 14-13

No. 6 (tie) New Orleans (minus 6 1-2) at No. 26 Cleveland

Saints should have won in Atlanta and they know it.

SAINTS, 31-21

No. 22 (tie) Chicago (plus 7) at No. 3 San Francisco

Bears know they should have won at home vs. Buffalo. Their anger won't help much this week.

49ERS, 22-17

No. 11 Atlanta (plus 5 1-2) at No. 4 Cincinnati

Bengals showed a little of everything, lots of guts at Baltimore.

BENGALS, 27-20

No. 1 Seattle (minus 5 1-2) at No. 16 San Diego

Even though there's little question Seahawks are NFL's best, this could be tight.

SEAHAWKS, 20-17

No. 32 St. Louis (plus 5 1-2) at No. 25 Tampa Bay

Rams plummeted to bottom of AP Pro32. Bucs also fell, but not nearly as badly.

BUCCANEERS, 23-13

No. 22 (tie) Houston (minus 3) at No. 31 Oakland

Texans headed for 2-0. Of course, they were 2-0 in 2013 and finished 2-14.

TEXANS, 17-16

No. 24 Kansas City (plus 13) at No. 2 Denver

Broncos headed for 2-0 before first road game - at Seahawks.

BRONCOS, 40-20

No. 18 New York Jets (plus 8 1-2) at No. 6 (tie) Green Bay

Jets headed for 2-0 ... oops, that thinking stops right here.

PACKERS, 26-16

No. 30 Dallas (plus 3 1-2) at No. 19 Tennessee

It will be easier to evaluate each team after this game. Maybe.

TITANS, 24-23

---

2014 RECORD: Against spread: (7-7-2). Straight up: (10-6).

Best Bet: 0-1 against spread, 0-1 straight up.

Upset special: 1-0 against spread, 0-1 straight up.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's Rated Games: 09/08

*****..........................................1 - 1

DOUBLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0

TRIPLE PLAYS................................0 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................0 - 0


NFL Rated Games For Sept.

*****.........................................2 - 2

DOUBLE PLAYS..............................5 - 2

TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0


RATED AND OPINONS ON ALL GAMES

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/08/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

09/07/14 16-*10-*0 61.54% +*2500 Detail

09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 19-*13-*0 59.38% +2350



Thursday, September 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Pittsburgh - 8:25 PM ET Pittsburgh +2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Baltimore - Over 44 500 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Rated Games:

*****..........................................0 - 0

DOUBLE PLAYS...............................0 - 2

TRIPLE PLAYS................................0 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................0 - 0


NFL Rated Games For Sept.

*****.........................................2 - 2

DOUBLE PLAYS..............................5 - 4

TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 2

September 12, 2014

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 11-0 ATS since September 28, 2008 as a dog when facing a team that gets less than 55% of their first downs via the pass.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Seahawks are 0-11 ATS (-10.86 ppg) since 2007 on the road when on exactly a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are 0-21-2 ATS (-9.0 ppg) in their careers after a game where Cutler had at least 20 completions and 1 or 2 TD passes, if at least three of those completions went to Marshall.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Fortyniners are 11-0 OU as a 7+ favorite when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week.

NCAA PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- Florida Atlantic is 10-0-1 ATS (12.1 ppg) since November 26, 2011 after a road loss.

NCAA PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- Miami is 0-9 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since November 2003 when they won by 34-65 last game and do not have 4+ losses on the season.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Bears are 10-0 OU since October 2012 on the road vs a non-divisional opponent.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams which have a line in week two and least eight points lower than in week one are 46-61-4 ATS. Active against Green Bay, Washington, Indianapolis

NCAA O/U TREND:

-- Oregon is 11-0 OU since September 12, 2009 in non-conference regular season games where the total is under 72 and they are not favored by 56+ points.

NCAA SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams that have fallen within a point of the spread in each of the past two games are 61-95 ATS. Active against Duke.

[StarDust Bum]

Sharp Moves - Week 2

September 11, 2014


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. In Week 1, bettors would've gone 1-2 if they followed the sharp plays with the Eagles-Jaguars outcome causing the professionals to turn up losers.

Below are some games that I have my eye on for Week 2!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Friday morning.

(Rotation #262) Minnesota +3 – No big shocks here that the public is all over the Patriots. After all, New England was beaten last week on the road, and for the first time in his career, quarterback Tom Brady is in last place in the AFC East by himself. On top of that, the Pats have only played four games when under .500 in the last 11 years, and they won and covered all four of those games. Minnesota looked great last week, albeit against St. Louis, but we have a feeling that maybe this team is better than we originally gave it credit for. If that turns out to be the case on Sunday, there could be a sinking feeling in Beantown, as the Patriots could legitimately slip to 0-2 after two weeks of the season.

Opening Line: Minnesota +3
Current Line: Minnesota +3
Public Betting Percentage: 67% on New England

(Rotation #264) Cleveland +6 – The sharpest play on the board in Week 2. The Browns are playing their opening game at FirstEnergy Stadium this year, and we really aren't all that sure why they are such massive underdogs in this game. New Orleans has had a history of playing poorly on the road, and they have gone 3-5 in each of the last two seasons away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Saints started off last week with a loss on the road in Atlanta, and this is probably a tougher atmosphere to be playing in because it isn't inside of a dome. Mother Nature could play a role here, and if she does, it certainly suits the Browns more than the Saints. The big question: Are the real Browns the ones we saw in the first-half against the Steelers last week or the ones who played in the second-half? That's the big problem that we have to try to work out.

Opening Line: Cleveland +6
Current Line: Cleveland +6
Public Betting Percentage: 74% on New Orleans

(Rotation #270) San Diego +5.5 – Again, no real surprises here. The Seahawks looked like the most dominating team in the NFL when they beat the snot out of the Packers last week on the opening night of the season. However, we still think they have some holes that could be exploited. The Chargers ended up losing on Monday Night Football and have to play on a short week, which isn't going to help matters any, but they have a history of pulling off upsets like this. That's a lot of points to be giving a team that historically will stay close to anyone in the NFL when stuck in that ridiculous underdog role.

Opening Line: San Diego +5.5
Current Line: San Diego +5.5
Public Betting Percentage: 68% on Seattle

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 2

September 12, 2014

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 11-0 ATS since September 28, 2008 as a dog when facing a team that gets less than 55% of their first downs via the pass.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Seahawks are 0-11 ATS (-10.86 ppg) since 2007 on the road when on exactly a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are 0-21-2 ATS (-9.0 ppg) in their careers after a game where Cutler had at least 20 completions and 1 or 2 TD passes, if at least three of those completions went to Marshall.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Fortyniners are 11-0 OU as a 7+ favorite when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week.

NCAA PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- Florida Atlantic is 10-0-1 ATS (12.1 ppg) since November 26, 2011 after a road loss.

NCAA PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- Miami is 0-9 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since November 2003 when they won by 34-65 last game and do not have 4+ losses on the season.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Bears are 10-0 OU since October 2012 on the road vs a non-divisional opponent.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams which have a line in week two and least eight points lower than in week one are 46-61-4 ATS. Active against Green Bay, Washington, Indianapolis

NCAA O/U TREND:

-- Oregon is 11-0 OU since September 12, 2009 in non-conference regular season games where the total is under 72 and they are not favored by 56+ points.

NCAA SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams that have fallen within a point of the spread in each of the past two games are 61-95 ATS. Active against Duke.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Top Action

September 12, 2014


DETROIT LIONS (1-0) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Carolina -3, Total: 43.5
Opening Line & Total: Panthers -3 & 44

Two 1-0 teams square off in Charlotte on Sunday with the Panthers hosting the Lions.

Detroit debuted its new offense at home Monday night and it was a major success. The Lions racked up 417 yards of total offense and defeated the Giants 35-14. WR Calvin Johnson had seven receptions for 164 yards and two touchdowns. Carolina played its opening game without QB Cam Newton (ribs), who will likely be the starter in Week 2. The Panthers went into Tampa Bay and stole a road win 20-14, and their defense will look to make Lions QB Matthew Stafford as uncomfortable as possible. However, Newton will also be up against a dominant front seven. He could be in trouble if he’s not moving as well after fracturing his ribs in the preseason.

These teams have played six games since 1995. The Panthers are 4-2 SU in those meetings (3-1 SU at home), but Detroit has covered in five of six. The Lions are 3-15 ATS off one or more straight Overs in the past three seasons. Carolina is 3-1 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog during that time. Lions S Don Carey (hamstring) is questionable for the game on Sunday and RB Reggie Bush (knee) is probable, but there are no other significant injuries for either team.

The Lions were dominant on Monday night against the Giants and a lot of that had to do with the play of QB Matthew Stafford. While WR Calvin Johnson hauled in two first-quarter touchdowns, Stafford made some excellent plays using his footwork that allowed him to find his go-to guy down the field. Stafford threw for 346 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in the game. He also rushed for a touchdown. WR Golden Tate made his Lions debut in the game and he certainly didn’t disappoint. Tate caught six passes for 93 yards working opposite of Johnson.

The offense, however, can’t take all the credit for the win, as the defense caused two turnovers and sacked Eli Manning twice for a loss of 19 yards. They could give the Panthers’ fits defensively. Carolina is rolling out a brand new receiving corps and just played a game with their backup quarterback. The Lions will need to take advantage of the Panthers’ adjustment to the arrival of Cam Newton.

With Newton out for Week 1, the Panthers turned to veteran QB Derek Anderson. Anderson has never been much of a threat as a quarterback, but he managed the game against Tampa Bay beautifully. Filling in for Newton is no easy task, but Anderson threw for 230 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. He took care of the ball and gave his team a chance to win the game. Rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin looked great in his NFL debut, hauling in six catches for 92 yards and a touchdown. He will face a shaky secondary with the Lions and could be in for yet another big game.

TE Greg Olsen was targeted 11 times against the Bucs and finished with eight receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown. He is the most experienced pass catcher on this team, and Newton will certainly look his way often all season. The Panthers defense, however, was the story in the opening week. They forced three turnovers in the game and had the Buccaneers offense confused all day. They now face a very difficult task in stopping a potent Lions offense.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (1-0) at NEW YORK GIANTS (0-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Arizona -3, Total: 43
Opening Line & Total: Giants -2.5 & 44.5

The Giants look to avoid an 0-2 start when they host the Cardinals in their home opener on Sunday.

Arizona scored just six points in the first half of their opening week game despite some big plays. In the fourth quarter, the Chargers had a 17-6 lead before the Cardinals started to click. QB Carson Palmer led two touchdown drives with the second one coming with just over two minutes left to give Arizona the 18-17 victory. The Giants, however, were demolished in Detroit, as QB Eli Manning threw two interceptions in a 35-14 loss. This Giants defense could struggle with Carson Palmer after allowing Matthew Stafford to throw for 345 yards and two touchdowns. The Cardinals defense, on the other hand, made timely stops against Philip Rivers and the Chargers.

Since 1992, the Giants are 9-3 SU and 6-5 ATS when hosting the Cardinals in New York. Even with last week's non-cover, Arizona is still 6-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season since 2011. Tom Coughlin, however, is 43-28 ATS in the first half of the season as head coach of the Giants. S Tyrann Mathieu (knee) and LB Alex Okafor (thigh) are listed as questionable for the Cardinals, while LB John Abraham (concussion) is out indefinitely. New York WR Odell Beckham (hamstring) is out indefinitely, and a couple of linemen are both questionable in DT Markus Kuhn (ankle) and OT James Brewer (back).

The Cardinals faced a lot of question marks heading into Monday night, but they responded with a big 18-17 victory in their home opener. The Arizona defensive line was dominant all night, allowing just 52 yards on the ground on 24 carries. They allowed 238 passing yards, but when they needed stops, they got them. The offense wasn’t nearly as consistent, struggling during the first half before eventually getting it going. QB Carson Palmer threw for 304 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Both touchdowns came in the fourth quarter on drives of 10 plays and 11 plays respectively.

Top RB Andre Ellington was a question mark coming into the game, but he looked great despite his injured foot. Ellington rushed for 53 yards on 13 carries and also added five receptions for 27 yards through the air. WR Larry Fitzgerald was held to just one reception for 22 yards, but fellow WR Michael Floyd stepped it up with a huge performance. Floyd had five receptions for 119 yards, including a 63-yard reception when the Cardinals were pressed up against their own goal line. They now have a matchup against a Giants offense that really struggled against the Lions.

New York's debut of its Green Bay Packers-inspired offense could not have gone worse. QB Eli Manning struggled behind a faltering offensive line, throwing for 163 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. He did not seem to have the timing down with his receivers that is required in this offense. New RB Rashad Jennings, however, had a very solid debut for the Giants. Jennings rushed for 46 yards and a touchdown while also hauling in four receptions for 50 yards. He will have a gigantic role in this offense this season. WR Victor Cruz was targeted six times in the passing game, but was able to bring in only two catches for 24 yards. The Giants defense really didn’t give Manning much of a chance though. They allowed Matthew Stafford to throw for 346 yards and were unable to cause a single turnover in this contest.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (0-1) at DENVER BRONCOS (1-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Denver -12.5, Total: 51.5
Opening Line & Total: Broncos -12.5 & 52

Two AFC West rivals collide on Sunday when the Broncos host the Chiefs.

Kansas City got off to a terrible start in Week 1, getting embarrassed 26-10 by the Titans in Arrowhead Stadium. QB Alex Smith struggled with 3 INT in his team’s defeat. Denver, on the other hand, took down the Colts 31-24 behind 269 yards and three touchdowns from QB Peyton Manning. If the Chiefs defense had that much trouble against Jake Locker and the Titans, they’ll be in for a long day facing the best offense in the league. The Broncos defense also looked excellent at times against the Colts, so Alex Smith will really need to get his offense going.

Last season, the Broncos won-and-covered in both meetings with Kansas City, including a 27-17 victory as a 7.5-point favorite at home. The Chiefs are 16-5 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 1992. Denver, however, is 19-7 ATS in games played on a grass field over the past three years. In addition to the absorbing a loss in the standings, Kansas City also lost both LB Derrick Johnson and DE Mike DeVito with season-ending Achilles injuries. Also, S Eric Berry (quad) and Husain Abdullah (quad) are listed as questionable for the Chiefs, but the Broncos have no significant new injuries.

After signing a big contract extension in the offseason, Chiefs QB Alex Smith had a horrible season opener, throwing for 202 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. Smith had not thrown that many picks in a regular-season game since October 14, 2012, and he will need to make better decisions against an improved Broncos secondary. Head coach Andy Reid must also call the game better from the sidelines, as he completely dropped the ball with his opening week gameplan with allowing star RB Jamaal Charles to get only seven carries in the game.

If the Chiefs are going to have any chance against the Broncos, Charles will need to have a great game. WR Donnie Avery led the team in receiving with seven catches for 84 yards, and the return of suspended WR Dwayne Bowe should really help open up the field for the rest of this offense. The Chiefs defense was a major letdown in the opening week, but it could get worse as they face the best offense in the NFL.

Peyton Manning’s season started off the right way with the quarterback picking up right where he left off from his record-setting 2013 season when he threw for 5,477 yards and 55 TD. He’ll look to exploit a Kansas City defense that is now depleted with injuries and coming off a game where they made the Titans look unbeatable. RB Montee Ball is now the featured back in this offense and he started off the year with 23 carries for 67 yards and a touchdown. He also caught two passes for 16 yards.

TE Julius Thomas, however, was the Broncos’ most utilized weapon. Thomas caught all three of Manning’s touchdown passes and finished with seven receptions for 104 yards. With WR Wes Welker suspended, Denver made it a goal to force the ball to the athletic tight end. DE DeMarcus Ware’s Broncos debut was a good one, as he had 1.5 sacks and two QB hits in the game. He will add a pass-rushing element to this defense that the team lacked a year ago. Rahim Moore was also excellent for Denver. The safety intercepted Andrew Luck twice in the opener, and will make Alex Smith pay if he makes any mistakes like he did in Week 1.