The Bum's NFL September Best Bets-Trends-Stats Etc !

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Betting Recap - Week 1

September 7, 2014


Overall Notes

NFL Week 1 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 7-7

Against the Spread 4-10


Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 8-6

Against the Spread 4-10

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8


Biggest Favorite to Cash

Philadelphia (-10) defeated Jacksonville, 34-17

Biggest Underdog to Cash

Buffalo (+7, +250 ML) defeated Chicago, 23-20 (OT)

Blowing in the Wind

-- Three public favorites were on their way to cashing easily, but the Steelers, Saints, and Patriots failed to cover. Pittsburgh managed a last-second field goal to edge Cleveland as six-point home favorites, 30-27, as the Steelers squandered a 27-3 lead before the Browns rallied to tie the game at 27-27.

-- New Orleans and New England weren't as lucky in the road 'chalk' role. The Saints blew a 13-0 advantage in a 37-34 setback to the Falcons in overtime, as Atlanta tied the game with a last-second field at the end of regulation. Atlanta cashed as three-point home favorites, while avenging a pair of losses to New Orleans last season.

-- The Patriots threw away a 17-7 edge at Miami, as the Dolphins outscored New England, 26-3 in the final 32 minutes of a 33-20 loss at Sun Life Stadium. New England closed as 3 ½-point road favorites, as Bill Belichick's team lost its season opener for the first time since 2003.

Back (and front) door left open

-- The Raiders were totally outclassed by the Jets in Week 1, getting outgained 402-158. However, Oakland managed to cash as six-point road underdogs in a 19-14 defeat at New York thanks to a Derek Carr touchdown pass in the final two minutes.

-- So you think you were sharp by taking the Jaguars and 10 points. Things looked good for Jacksonville backers with a 17-0 halftime advantage, but Philadelphia scored the final 34 points of the game, capped off by a fumble return for a touchdown with 1:23 left to cover the double-digit line. Fair to say (after the fact) that taking the Eagles -7 ½ in the second half was probably the easiest second half bet of the week.

Bark like a dog

-- Nine underdogs cashed on Sunday afternoon, including four road teams that won outright. Cincinnati and Minnesota weren't that shocking, but how many people had Buffalo winning at Chicago? The Bills built a 17-7 halftime lead at Soldier Field as seven-point underdogs, but Chicago rallied to tie the game and force overtime. Following a Chicago punt on its first possession of overtime, Buffalo drove for the game-winning field goal to shock the Bears, 23-20.

-- The Titans opened as six-point underdogs at Kansas City, but that line moved all the way down to three at kickoff. Tennessee rolled at Arrowhead Stadium, 26-10, knocking off the defending AFC West champions by limiting Kansas City to 245 yards of offense. For the second straight season, the Titans won their season opener on the road in the underdog role, as Tennessee stunned Pittsburgh last season in Week 1.

Chase is on

-- For the bettors that lost with favorites in the 1:00 kickoffs, have no fear because the 49ers took care of the business in the dreaded "chase" game with a 28-17 victory at Dallas as 3 ½-point road favorites. The same can't be said for those who wanted to fade Carolina after news broke that Cam Newton was inactive. The Panthers played very well without their starting quarterback as Derek Anderson led Carolina to a 20-14 triumph at Tampa Bay as four-point 'dogs, while the two touchdowns by the Bucs came in the fourth quarter.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Consensus Picks

September 8, 2014 »

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

7:10 PM N.Y. Giants +4.5 1843 41.30% Detroit -4.5 2620 58.70% View View

10:20 PM San Diego +2.5 2342 53.29% Arizona -2.5 2053 46.71% View View



Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

10:20 PM San Diego 46 1601 53.44% Arizona 46 1395 46.56% View View

7:10 PM N.Y. Giants 45.5 2018 63.72% Detroit 45.5 1149 36.28% View View

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's Rated Games:

*****..........................................1 - 1

DOUBLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0

TRIPLE PLAYS................................0 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................0 - 0


NFL Rated Games For Sept.

*****.........................................2 - 2

DOUBLE PLAYS..............................5 - 2

TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0


RATED AND OPINONS ON ALL GAMES

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/08/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

09/07/14 16-*10-*0 61.54% +*2500 Detail

09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 19-*13-*0 59.38% +2350

[StarDust Bum]

Seven Lessons - Week 1

September 9, 2014


Seattle Repeat?

We'll start at the top with the team at the top. How good can the Seattle Seahawks be? Seattle looked dominant in an opening game that was not an easy setup for them. The Seahawks were facing a talented, motivated opponent who had extra time to prepare for their defense and came in confident and mostly healthy. The result? Absolute domination by the Seahawks in every aspect of the game. Their defense looked every bit as good as the one that carried them to a Super Bowl victory last season, allowing just 255 total yards to a good Packers offense, limiting QB Rodgers to just 175 yards passing, giving up just 3.0 ypc, and surrendering only 16 points. In addition, the Seahawks harassed Rodgers all night long, forcing him to throw early or off his back foot more often than not. Rodgers threw ZERO pass attempts to CB Richard Sherman's side and essentially allowed the Seattle secondary to cut the field in half on passing downs. On offense, they looked in mid-season form and QB Russell Wilson seems to be improving. They found unique and multiple ways to get the ball in playmaker Percy Harvin's hands and the Packers defense had no answer for him when he was allowed to run in open space.

Someone better beat the Seahawks early (they do play San Diego and Denver the next two weeks) because, if not, they have a 7 game stretch after their bye in which they play just two playoff teams and get home games vs Dallas, Oakland, and the NY Giants (will be double-digit favorites). This Seattle secondary has a chance to be one of the best ever and their home dominance is now reaching epic proportions, 18-1 SU over the last 2-plus seasons with an average margin of victory of 16 points per game!!

More importantly, the entire franchise seems to be saying the right things and moving on from last season rather quickly. All the post-game interviews had Seattle players saying things like, "it's not about them, it's about us", "we just play our game", "last year was last year", if they keep that attitude……this year could be just like last year.

Matty Ice

Prior to the season, I made an effort to draft Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan in all of my fantasy leagues and I wound up getting him in every league without using a pick higher than the 7th round. Whether that says something about the quality of leagues I'm playing in or the general level of awareness about Ryan's talent I'm not sure, but regardless, I believe that Ryan's Week 1 results are not an aberration. Ryan, and the Falcons as a team, seem in line for a resurgence after a very disappointing 2013. Ryan was fantastic in the opening game of the 2014 campaign, throwing for 448 yards and 3 TD's against a Saints defense that was #2 against the pass last year. When WR's Roddy White and Julio Jones are healthy they are one of the best tandems in the league and Ryan did an excellent job of allowing them to use their big bodies to make catches.

Last season, with both of them hurt, Harry Douglas had to assume the role of #1 WR, that allowed him to gain valuable experience and confidence and he should be an excellent complementary receiver this year. The addition of Devin Hester makes this offense even more versatile. Hester should be used as an all-around athlete who gets touches in open space and the Falcons would be smart to utilize him in much the same way that the Seahawks use Percy Harvin. Hester had 5 catches for 99 yards but returned just 1 punt and had zero carries, expect both of those numbers to increase next week. Ryan faces a couple of quality defenses over the next two weeks (Cincinnati, Tampa Bay) but then gets a five-week stretch where he faces Minnesota, the N.Y. Giants, Chicago, and Detroit, all games in which he should be able to have a great deal of success. With a plethora of weapons at the WR position and an aging Steven Jackson in the backfield, the Falcons may become a passing team and Ryan's 43 pass attempts may become the norm.

Pass the Buck

With the focus on defensive holding and illegal contact, it's simply an acknowledgement of the passing league the NFL has become. However, it's always interesting to see just how much the tilt towards passing has effected a team’s ability to win and cover. For me, I consider 45 or more passing attempts in a game a "high" number. This year in Week 1 five QB's attempted 45+ passes in regulation, Nick Foles (45), Joe Flacco (62), Jay Cutler (46), Tom Brady (56), and Andrew Luck (53), those five QB's went 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS. Some would say, of course the teams that threw the ball more had poor SU and ATS records because teams that are behind throw the ball more. True, but Flacco, Cutler, and Brady work in offenses that are pass oriented and 45% of the total 262 pass attempts occurred in the 1st half, with both Brady and Foles actually attempting more 1st half passes. How do these Week 1 results compare to prior years?

QB Attempts
Year Statistics SU ATS
2014 5 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 1-4 2-3
2013 6 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 3-3 1-5
2012 5 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 2-3 0-5
2011 6 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 2-4 1-5
Overall Statistics SU ATS
2011-14 5.5 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 8-14 4-18


So, since 2011 when we started seeing an increase in the average betting totals for Week 1, we really haven't seen an increase in the number of games with a "high" number of pass attempts. However, those games have shown that throwing the ball an extreme number of times does not result in SU wins and renders you worthless ATS. Granted, this is a very small sample size but the results are interesting enough to warrant attention and could be useful in making 2nd half or in game wagers.

4) NFC L-EAST

How bad did the teams from the NFC EAST look over the opening weekend? NFC EAST teams went 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS with the only cover coming on a miracle defensive TD for the Eagles with under two minutes to play. Dallas and the New York Giants turned in two of the worst offensive performances of the week and the Redskins managed just six points. This certainly looks like Philadelphia's division for the taking as the Cowboys and Giants problems could be season long. Dallas has one of the worst defenses in the league and if QB Tony Romo plays the way he did in Week 1, the Cowboys will struggle to win games. The Giants have seemingly truly scuffled to adjust to their new West Coast passing scheme and after Manning completed just 48% of his passes in the preseason, he opened the regular season by going 18-of-33 for 163 yards and 2 INT's for a QBR of 27.8. Not to be outdone, Romo threw three INT's and garnered a QBR of 19.9. I've got to give credit to Philly head coach Chip Kelly, with his team trailing by 17 points at halftime and being shutout, he went into the locker room, made adjustments, and dominated the 2nd half 34-0. I'm still not a fan, but I must give credit where it is due. Now, I understand why Dallas owner Jerry Jones wanted to draft Johnny Manziel, the Cowboys are dangerously close to becoming irrelevant. Jones won't stand for that. My prediction, rookie DE Michael Sam will see the field for the Cowboys this season.

5) Quick Thoughts

When I can, I make an attempt to watch every NFL game. I usually hang out at one of the sportsbooks in Las Vegas and take in as many games as possible while compiling some notes. I thought it might be fun to list some of those notes here, along with some post game observations.

"WOW, RGIII is getting hit a lot"
RGIII wound up getting hit a total of 14 times vs the Texans. Twice as many contacts as any other QB took in Week 1.

"San Fran knows they have Dallas completely outclassed, I've never seen an NFL team take their foot off the gas after THE 1st QUARTER!"
San Fran's 2nd half possessions = 0 yds, 37 yds, 17 yds, 40 yds, 10 yds and a total of ZERO points.

"Ravens throwing the ball too much. This didn't work in the opener last year either, RUN the ball"
2014 Week 1 - Flacco put up 62 pass attempts to lead the league, the Ravens had just 20 rushes. Baltimore losses SU and ATS.

2013 Week 1 - Flacco put up 62 pass attempts to lead the league, the Ravens had just 21 rushes. Baltimore losses SU and ATS.

"Dolphins might have themselves a nice little RB combo"
Knowshon Moreno, 24 carries 134 yards. Lamar Miller, 11 carries 59 yards.

"Cam Newton hurt, RB's look slow, defense looks just fine"
The Panthers defense didn't allow a point until midway through the 4th quarter while holding the primary Buccs RB's to 21 yds on 13 carries. They created 3 TO's and controlled the LOS.

"Please, no more Bud Light or Shock Top promotions in the sportsbook"
I'd like to watch the games without having to endure promo teams for macro-brews. Why can't Firestone Walker or 3 Floyds do a beer give away?

6) SuperContest

The Las Vegas SuperContest is turning into the sports betting version of the World Series of Poker. This year's entries reached an all-time high as 1,403 entry fees were accepted. With a cost of $1,500, the prize pool reached a new high and consists of over 2.1 million dollars in potential winnings. This year's winner will claim a 1st place prize of over 700K, more than double what the first place winner took home just four short years ago. Just as the WSOP exploded and saw a dramatic increase in participants and prize money, so has the SuperContest. The difference is, I don't see the interest in this contest waning anytime soon. Sportswagering is becoming more mainstream and the $1,500 entry fee is a price point that doesn't price too many potential customers out of the market. The potential is there for 2,000-plus entrants.

With that said, let's look at the Week 1 results. Out of 1,403 entrants only 23 (1.6%) managed to go 5-0. With underdogs going 11-5 ATS over the opening week, that makes sense, but I would have ventured with the number of sharp players in this contest a predominantly underdog weekend would have resulted in more 5-0 cards. On the flip side, 72 entrants (5.1%) managed to pick ZERO winners. An old mentor of mine once told me, "it's easier to find a loser and fade him than to find a winner and follow him", these results seem to make that cryptic advice ring true. It will most likely take 55 or 56 wins to take home the 1st place prize so those who went 0-5 in week #1 must now handicap at a 70% clip for the next 16 weeks to have a chance to win…….that's a tough road to hoe.

7) Dirty Rice

I'll keep this part short and sweet as many others over the next few weeks and days will have more to say and much more eloquently than I, but I will say this, that sound you hear may just be executives at NFL headquarters and the Baltimore Ravens front office shredding documents and deleting texts and emails. If you think that yesterday was the first time anyone had seen the Ray Rice elevator footage………well, ok. The Ravens and the NFL parting ways with Rice is not the end of this, Baltimore plays a national TV game vs. Pittsburgh this Thursday night and I'd be very surprised if everyone working for the Ravens front office is still employed by kickoff.

Handicapping the NFL, in many ways, is about analyzing data and then making predictions, here are some easy ones. Ray Rice has played his last NFL game and Roger Goodell has seen his last days as commissioner, there is a DA in Atlantic City who will be job hunting soon, and Thursday's Baltimore/Pittsburgh game will have little to do with football.

The NFL has a unique chance to gain some good from this via revised policies and increased awareness but not as long as any of the parties who were involved are still around. Usually during October, the NFL has its players wear pink for Breast Cancer Awareness Month this year they should have them wear purple to help bring even more awareness to the issue of domestic violence. If the Ravens were smart, they would petition to wear all purple uniforms for the month and donate Ray Rice's 2014 salary (3.5 million) to Safe Horizon, the National Coalition Against Domestic Violence, and the House of Ruth.

Aloha.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Opening Line Report: Oddsmakers not sold on Niners in Week 2

Week 1 of the NFL season was quite the roller-coaster ride for fans – and surely for bettors, as well. The Week 2 lineup looks to bring more of the same, and it gets going in short order on Thursday night, when the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to face the archrival Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens are at home for a second straight week, and could find themselves in a rough spot if they can’t get it done against Pittsburgh. They opened the season Sunday with a 23-16 loss as a 1-point chalk against Cincinnati, and two AFC North Division losses could be tough to recover from.

“They’re already a game behind both the Steelers and the Bengals, a loss here puts them two back of the Steelers and if the Bengals take care of business versus the Falcons, that’s two games behind them,” Michael Stewart, an oddsmakers for CarbonSports.ag tells Covers.

The Steelers, meanwhile, blew all of a 27-3 halftime lead at home against Cleveland, needing a field goal as time expired to take a 30-27 win while failing to cash as a 5.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh opened as a 2.5-point favorite against a Baltimore team that desperately needs the win.

“This has historically been a very competitive rivalry and this game should be no exception,” says Stewart. “So far, the early action is split and I believe we will see little to zero line movement in this game.”

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-12)

The defending AFC champion Broncos jump into AFC West Division play, after holding off Indianapolis 31-24 but falling short as 8-point favorites, relinquishing almost all of a 24-7 halftime lead. The Chiefs, a playoff team last year, looked dreadful at home against Tennessee, losing 26-10 as a 3-point fave.

CarbonSports.ag opened Kansas City as a 11.5-point underdog and took immediate action on the Broncos. Stewart has a feeling the sharp bettors are trying to push this number even higher, before coming back on the Chiefs.

“Personally, I think the wiseguys are looking to get out ahead on this game and will eventually play it back +13.5 or even 14 if it gets that high, which it won’t in my opinion,” says Stewart. “This is a Chiefs team that looked awful at home versus the Titans and now travels to take on one of the best teams in the NFL. They’re surely going to struggle in this game and unless the wiseguys get involved, I can see us closing Broncos -13.”

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-7)

The Bears already find themselves in a pinch after suffering the biggest upset of the day Sunday, dumping their home opener 23-20 in overtime to 7-point underdog Buffalo.

Meanwhile, San Francisco and its fans will likely be amped for the regular-season debut of the brand-spanking new Levi’s Stadium.

Not that the Niners need to be at home to draw fans. Anyone watching San Francisco’s 28-17 road trouncing of the Dallas Cowboys Sunday couldn’t help but notice the huge roars following all the big 49ers plays – particularly by the defense, which created four first-half turnovers as San Fran cashed laying 3.5 points.

However, that sloppy play from Dallas has clouded the bookmaker’s view of San Francisco, which may or may not be as good as advertised.

“Our wiseguys hammered the Cowboys in their game versus the 49ers because I believe they, like me, are convinced they’re not a good team and are an organization in turmoil,” says Stewart. “We opened this game 49ers -7 and as we expected, so far all the money is on the favorite and we’re fine with taking on that money at -7.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

Indianapolis, which rallied but fell just short at Denver as an 8-point underdog in a 31-24 loss, aims to get back on track against a Philadelphia squad that mounted a successful comeback in Week 1.

The Eagles, giving 10 points, found themselves in a 17-0 halftime hole at home to Jacksonville, then scored the game’s final 34 points in a 34-17 victory.

The Colts hit the board as low as -2.5 and climbed to -3 for the Monday Night Football Week 2 showcase. The total for this game opened at a lofty 52.5 points and jumped to 53 with early money taking the Over with these two sides loaded with offensive weapons.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL line watch: Don't wait on Broncos vs. Chiefs

Spread to bet now

Kansas City Chiefs (+12) at Denver Broncos

Already in scramble mode after a stomach-punch, 16-point loss to the Titans at home in Week 1, the Chiefs will have to avoid doubling down on bad when they travel to Denver. It’s the worst matchup at the worst time, and the hefty 12-point spread probably won’t be enough.

Kansas City will be facing the Broncos without two key players who have probably been lost for the rest of the year. Pro Bowl linebacker Derrick Johnson and starting defensive tackle Mike DeVito both suffered ruptured Achilles tendons in the devastating loss to Tennessee.

And if all that isn’t enough to cause Chiefs fans to spend time alone in a dark room, consider KC’s schedule after Denver – New England at home, then road games at San Francisco and San Diego. Things ease up after that, but by Halloween it might already be curtains for a team that won its first nine games last season.


Spread to wait on

New England Patriots at (-3) at Minnesota Vikings

The Patriots can’t be this bad. Can they?

Oddsmakers don’t think so, and the Pats give three points this week in Minnesota despite peeing all over themselves in the second half in Miami, mainly because they couldn’t stop the Dolphins’ ground game. And the Vikes just happened to run the ball down the Rams’ throats in Week 1.

Still, the NFL is a game of adjustments and no one is better at taking away a team’s strength than Bill Belichick. He is loath to stack the defensive line to stop the run and prefers to flood the secondary, but this week he may be able to afford it because Matt Cassel doesn’t figure to throw for 300 yards. Early money is on New England, which could bump the number up to 3.5 by mid week.


Total to watch

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (44)

By now, Over players should know to approach AFC North games much like they would a rattlesnake.

Coaches in the division are wary of opening up their offenses and field-goal games grow on trees. This one shouldn’t be much different than the two the teams played last season (Steelers, 19-16 and Ravens, 22-20).

Baltimore in particular won’t be in a gambling mood after its one-possession loss to Cincinnati on opening day. This game could easily remain in the 30s and the 44-point number seems at least a field goal too heavy.

[jcindaville]

Thanks Stardust

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

NFL trends for Week 2 coming up Sunday..........(records are ATS)

-- Ravens are 3-9-1 as a divisional home favorite.

-- Packers covered 14 of last 21 as a home favorite.

-- Bears covered only four of last 12 road games.

-- Saints covered twice in last twelve road games.

-- Bills covered last five divisional home games.

-- Broncos covered 12 of last 16 divisional games.

**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but......

13) There were 129 plays of 20+ yards in the NFL last week; only 29 of them (23.4%) happened on third down. You’d think offenses would be more aggressive on third down, but maybe defenses are more aggressive, too.

12) Falcons/Steelers (8 each) had the most 20+ yard plays, Packers/Raiders (1 each) had the least.

11) Teams averaged 4.93 points per possessions when they got in the red zone (other team’s 20-yard line); Saints (38 points/6 trips), Falcons (21/3), Denver (24/4) did the best in the red zone.

Jaguars (0/1), Eagles/Texans (3/2 each), Jets (13/4) did the worst. Rams (0/1) only got there once.

10) There were 196 drives last week where teams started 80+ yards from the goal line; 34 (17.3%) of those resulted in TD’s. 23 of the 34 drives were exactly 80 yards; 11 were longer.

9) Teams averaged 1.47 points/possession on drives that started 80+ yards from goal line and that was with Atlanta scoring TD’s on four 80+-yard drives.

8) Teams converted 42.2% (166-393) of third down plays, which means teams averaged 12.2 third down plays per game. Just converting those plays flips field position and have hidden value in game stats.

7) Was very impressed by Charger kick coverage team Monday night; thought they had lot of fast guys who tackled well.

6) Was also impressed Monday night by how aggressive the Arizona pass rush was on the last series, bltizing to try and keep Philip Rivers off-rhythm. Much better plan than sitting back and letting a veteran QB pick them apart.

5) Tennessee Titans dropped from 100-1 to 60-1 in futures wagering on the Super Bowl in Las Vegas, all based on one strong game.

4) Buffalo Sabres’ owner Terry Pagula is going to be very popular in western New York, if he buys the Buffalo Bills and keeps them in western New York, as he said he’ll do.

3) Mets shut down David Wright for the last 18 days of the season; he has issues with his shoulder, which may be why he had a sub-par season.

2) 40+ years ago, Marvin Barnes teamed with flashy PG Ernie Degregorio to lead Providence to the 1973 Final Four. Barnes was the beast of the team, Degregorio its cocky floor leader- they were a lot of fun to watch. Barnes passed away this week at age 62, way too young to go. He was a great college player.

1) I am totally convinced that the best way for NFL teams to score more points would be to take Sundays away from the coaches, in other words, take the damn mikes out of the helmet, let quarterbacks call the plays and let the players own Sundays. You’d see more wide open play, better football.

Most football coaches are so damn conservative, they strangle the game.

[jcindaville]

Thanks Stardust

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 2

Thursday, September 11

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PITTSBURGH (1 - 0) at BALTIMORE (0 - 1) - 9/11/2014, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 14

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DETROIT (1 - 0) at CAROLINA (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 55-78 ATS (-30.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (1 - 0) at BUFFALO (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (0 - 1) at WASHINGTON (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 53-82 ATS (-37.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 72-98 ATS (-35.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 72-98 ATS (-35.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 72-98 ATS (-35.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (0 - 1) at TENNESSEE (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 41-21 ATS (+17.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (1 - 0) at NY GIANTS (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (0 - 1) at MINNESOTA (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (0 - 1) at CLEVELAND (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) against AFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (1 - 0) at CINCINNATI (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ST LOUIS (0 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 136-172 ATS (-53.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 136-172 ATS (-53.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 105-137 ATS (-45.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 37-57 ATS (-25.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 23-42 ATS (-23.2 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 2-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (1 - 0) at SAN DIEGO (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (1 - 0) at OAKLAND (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 37-70 ATS (-40.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (1 - 0) at GREEN BAY (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 155-114 ATS (+29.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (0 - 1) at DENVER (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (0 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, September 15

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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 1) - 9/15/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 2

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 11

8:25 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. BALTIMORE
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh


Sunday, September 14

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. TENNESSEE
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. BUFFALO
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
New England is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing New England
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. NY GIANTS
Arizona is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CLEVELAND
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. CAROLINA
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
Carolina is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
Carolina is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. WASHINGTON
Jacksonville is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 8 games on the road
Washington is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games

4:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. SAN DIEGO
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 9 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
San Diego5-1-1 SU in its last 7 games

4:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. TAMPA BAY
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing St. Louis

4:25 PM
HOUSTON vs. OAKLAND
Houston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

4:25 PM
NY JETS vs. GREEN BAY
NY Jets are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 7 games
Green Bay is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games
Green Bay is 3-7-1 SU in its last 11 games ,

4:25 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. DENVER
Kansas City is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Denver
Kansas City is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Denver's last 21 games

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Chicago is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago


Monday, September 15

8:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Indianapolis is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 2


Highest Week 2 total already moving upward

Bettors are well aware of the kind of offensive numbers the Philadelphia Eagles and the Indianapolis Colts are capable of putting up, and so are bookies.

The total for the Eagles-Colts Week 2 Monday Night Football meeting opened Sunday at 52.5 - the highest total of any game on the schedule - and it's already jumped a full point to 53.5 as of Monday at offshore books.


Historic week for passers in Week 1

Time and time again we hear that the NFL is becoming a pass-first league. Week 1 of the NFL season has reaffirmed that idea with a historic week for quarterbacks.

Passes were completed at a 64.3 percent rate, which is officially the highest completion percentage in a single week in NFL history via @ESPN_Numbers.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 2

Thursday, Sept. 11th

Pittsburgh at Baltimore, 8:25 ET
Pittsburgh: 27-13 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game
Baltimore: 13-4 OVER off an upset loss as a home favorite


Sunday, Sept. 14th

Detroit at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 52-24 UNDER when they allow 15 to 21 points
Carolina: 7-0 UNDER when they commit 2 turnovers

Miami at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Miami: 6-17 ATS off an upset win over a division rival
Buffalo: 30-14 ATS after a win by 3 or less points

Jacksonville at Washington, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 19-8 ATS in road games after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards
Washngton: 36-59 ATS as a home favorite

Dallas at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 48-70 ATS in road games after playing a game at home
Tennessee: 41-21 ATS in non-conference games

Arizona at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 13-4 UNDER in the first half of the season
NY Giants: 11-3 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3

New England at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
New England: 10-1 ATS off a division game
Minnesota: 13-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road

New Orleans at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 6-16 ATS against AFC North division opponents
Cleveland: 10-2 UNDER against NFC South division opponents

Atlanta at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 31-12 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game
Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS in home games

ST Louis at Tampa Bay, 4:05 ET
ST Louis: 0-6 ATS in road games against conference opponents
Tampa Bay: 56-36 UNDER as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Seattle at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Seattle: 70-25 OVER when they gain 6 or more total yards per play
San Diego: 28-12 UNDER in home games when they commit 2 turnovers

Houston at Oakland, 4:25 ET
Houston: 38-22 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3
Oakland: 13-28 ATS in home games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game

NY Jets at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
NY Jets: 14-4 ATS off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite
Green Bay: 101-69 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Kansas City at Denver, 4:25 ET
Kansas City: 16-5 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points
Denver: 21-10 ATS as a favorite

Chicago at San Francisco, 8:35 ET
Chicago: 5-18 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points
San Francisco: 21-12 OVER in all games


Monday, Sept.15

Philadelphia at Indianapolis
Philadelphia: 40-16 ATS when they gain 400 to 450 total yards
Indianapolis: 13-49 ATS when they allow 8 or more net passing yards/attempt

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 2

Pittsburgh at Baltimore
The Steelers head to Baltimore on Thursday night to face a Ravens team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 Thursday games. Pittsburgh is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 11

Game 101-102: Pittsburgh at Baltimore (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 133.605; Baltimore 132.199
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3); Over


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 14

Game 251-252: Detroit at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 133.469; Carolina 137.936
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 4 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Carolina by 2 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-2 1/2); Under

Game 253-254: Miami at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 132.872; Buffalo 135.067
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 2; 47
Vegas Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+1 1/2); Over

Game 255-256: Jacksonville at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 120.236; Washington 129.031
Dunkel Line: Washington by 9; 41
Vegas Line: Washington by 6; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-6); Under

Game 257-258: Dallas at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 131,196; Tennessee 137.200
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 6; 45
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3); Under

Game 259-260: Arizona at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 131.407; NY Giants 132.978
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2); Under

Game 261-262: New England at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 140.237; Minnesota 130.208
Dunkel Line: New England by 10; 45
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 49
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); Under

Game 263-264: New Orleans at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 134.607; Cleveland 131.554
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 3; 42
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+6 1/2); Under

Game 265-266: Atlanta at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 130.578; Cincinnati 139.007
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 5; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-5); Over

Game 267-268: St. Louis at Tampa Bay (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 127.349; Tampa Bay 129.306
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 34
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 6; 37
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+6); Under

Game 269-270: Seattle at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 136.273; San Diego 140.317
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 4; 48
Vegas Line: Seattle by 6; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+6); Over

Game 271-272: Houston at Oakland (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 128.923; Oakland 124.083
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5; 44
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-2 1/2); Over

Game 273-274: NY Jets at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 126.128; Green Bay 142.855
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 16 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 8; 46
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-8); Over

Game 275-276: Kansas City at Denver (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 129.791; Denver 140.467
Dunkel Line: Denver by 10 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Denver by 14; 51
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+14); Under

Game 277-278: Chicago at San Francisco (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 129.149; San Francisco 143.219
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 14; 51
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-6 1/2); Over


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 15

Game 279-280: Philadelphia at Indianapolis (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 137.166; Indianapolis 136.175
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 56
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 2

Thursday
Steelers (1-0) @ Ravens (0-1)-- Lot of distractions for Ravens in short week with Ray Rice debacle; they lost at home to Bengals last week, allowing 77-yard bomb with 4:58 left after rallying back from down 15-0 at half to take lead. Ravens won four of last six games in this series, with last five series games decided by 3 points or less. Only once in Steelers' last six visits here was game deicded by more than four points. Pitt blew 27-3 halftime lead at home last week, won 30-27 late despite Browns gaining 387 yards, 183 on ground. Steelers lost last three road openers, all by 10+ points- they covered once in last seven road openers, with five of the seven games staying under the total.