The Bum's NFL September Best Bets-Trends-Stats Etc !

[StarDust Bum]

Those LIGHTS OUT PLAYS are looking good..............Same goes for those TRIPLE PLAYS......GO NINERS.

[KazDog]

Great stuff Bum. Thanks for the plays!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Rated Games For Sept.

*****........................................0 - 0

DOUBLE PLAYS..............................2 - 1

TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0



SUNDAY NIGHT RATED PLAYS:

Indianapolis - 8:30 PM ET Indianapolis +8.5 500 *****

Denver - Under 53 500 *****

[StarDust Bum]

REVISED STANDING:

NFL Rated Games For Sept.

*****........................................0 - 0

DOUBLE PLAYS..............................3 - 1

TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Rated Games:

NFL Rated Games For Sept.

*****........................................1 - 1

DOUBLE PLAYS..............................2 - 1

TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0


NFL Rated Games For Sept.

*****........................................0 - 0

DOUBLE PLAYS..............................3 - 1

TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0


RATED AND OPINONS ON ALL GAMES

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/07/14 16-*10-*0 6153% +*2500 Detail

09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 17-*11-*0 60.71% +2450

[StarDust Bum]

Rated games double plays should read 3 - 2...................1 - 1 monday night and 2 - 1 today.....sorry bout that.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Rated Games:

*****........................................1 - 1

DOUBLE PLAYS..............................2 - 1

TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0


NFL Rated Games For Sept.

*****........................................1 - 1

DOUBLE PLAYS..............................3 - 2

TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0


RATED AND OPINONS ON ALL GAMES

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/07/14 16-*10-*0 6153% +*2500 Detail

09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 17-*11-*0 60.71% +2450

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

-- Oklahoma State QB JW Walsh broke his foot Saturday, is out 6-8 weeks.

-- Baltimore has a 9.5-game lead in AL East; their magic number to clinch is 10.

-- Yasiel Puig batted 7th for the Dodgers Sunday, after going 8 for his last 65. Will be very interested to see what the Dodgers do with their playoff roster.

-- In his last 36 holes of the BMW tourney, Morgan Hofmann had 17 birdies and an eagle. Thats pretty good at pitch 'n putt.

-- Big night in Detroit Monday; Royals-Tigers and Giants-Lions in Motown.

-- At what point does Peyton Manning become known as Mr September?

**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Sunday......

13) Falcons 37, Saints 34 OT-- Best game of day, but not lot of defense; only one of nine TD drives was less than 80 yards and that was 71. Teams combined to go 14 of 24 on third down. Falcons averaged 10.1 yards per pass attempt.

12) Vikings 34, Rams 6-- Worst game of day, good start for Mike Zimmer, who had to wait until age 58 to get his first head coaching job. Norv Turner made good use of speedy WR Patterson in this game-- he's a weapon.

11) Steelers 30, Browns 27-- Pittsburgh blew 27-3 halftime lead, then won at gun on a 41-yard FG. Hoyer played whole game for Browns, who gained 389 yards and didn't turn ball over. Only one TD in three red zone trip for Steelers.

10) Eagles 34, Jaguars 17-- Jax scored early, with turnover-aided drives of 44-21 yards, and led 17-0 at halftime,but was outscored 34-0 in second half, with bad beat of day when Iggles scored defensive TD with 1:23 left for the cover.

9) Jets 19, Raiders 14-- Eight teams were +2 or better in turnovers this week; only the Raiders/Jaguars lost, maybe two worst teams in NFL. Jets outrushed Oakland 212-25, but had only one TD, two FGs on four red zone drives.

8) Bengals 23, Ravens 16-- Cincy tried FGs on six of first seven drives, making first five. Flacco blew easy FG just before half with pathetic clock management and it cost them late. Bengals hit AJ Green for game-winning bomb with 4:58 left.

7) Bills 23, Bears 20 OT-- Buffalo ran ball for 193 yards, had 14-yard advantage in field position- they averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt, were +2 in turnovers. Jay Cutler passed for 341 yards, but also threw two interceptions.

6) Texans 17, Redskins 6-- Washington scored first, then had PAT blocked and never scored again. Houston blocked punt for TD, so rough day for Redskins' special teams. Teams combined for one TD, two empty trips on four red zone drives.

5) Titans 26, Chiefs 10-- KC was -24 in turnovers in 2012, +18 LY, now they're -3 this year. Titans had 162 rushing yards, 243 passing, as they outgained Chiefs by 160 yards and had 10-yard edge in field position.

4) Dolphins 33, Patriots 20-- Only thing more depressing than the Ram game was drafting Tom Brady in my fantasy league, then watching him get outscored by Ryan Tannehill, who doesn't even know which teams are in the AFC East. Dolphins had TD drives of 15 and 34 yards- they shut Patriots out in second half.

3) Panthers 20, Buccaneers 14-- Carolina gets a divisional road win with Newton in street clothes; rookie WR Benjamin looks like a keeper for Panthers. Tampa Bay DB dropped an INT in last 2:00 that would've set up at least a trying FG, then they fumbled on first play after the Carolina punt.

2) 49ers 28, Cowboys 17-- FOX had two 4:25 games; they insist on pretending the Cowboys are good, so they get marquee games. Since 1997, Dallas is 137-138 in the regular season, with one playoff win. Their last winning season was in 2009.

1) Broncos 31, Colts 24-- Week 1 so far: favorites are 4-9-1 vs spread, home dogs are 2-1. Under is 9-5 with two games left. Denver had a 24-7 lead at the half, then hung on for dear life for the win. Luck was impressive in the second half.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, September 8

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Game of the Day: Monday Night Football doubleheader
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New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 47)

The New York Giants debut their new-look offense with hopes of avoiding a repeat of their horrific start to the 2013 campaign when they visit the Detroit Lions on Monday night in the season opener for both teams. New York put itself out of playoff contention early last year, losing its first six games thanks largely to its shoddy offensive play. The Giants led the NFL with 44 giveaways, including a league-high 27 interceptions by Eli Manning, and ranked 28th in scoring with 294 points.

Offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride promptly retired after the season and New York brought in Ben McAdoo from Green Bay to install his version of the West Coast offense - a system with which Manning struggled during the preseason. Detroit is seeking just its third winning season in the last 15 after losing six of its last seven games in 2013 - including each of its final four. Coach Jim Schwartz took the fall for the meltdown and was replaced by Jim Caldwell, whose offensive-minded approach could do wonders for a team boasting the likes of Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford and Reggie Bush.

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Westgate LV Superbook opened the Lions as 4-point faves, but they now have Lions -6.5. The total opened at 46 and is now 47.

INJURY REPORT: Giants - CB Prince Amukamara (Probably, groin), LB Jon Beason (Probably, foot), WR Odell Beckham (Questionable, hamstring). Lions - S James Ihedigbo (Probable, knee).

POWER RANKINGS: Giants (+3) - Lions (+3.25) + home field (-3.0) - Lions (-3.25)

WEATHER REPORT: N/A

ABOUT THE GIANTS (2013: 7-9, 7-9 ATS, 7-9 O/U, 3rd NFC East): New York will be without its 2014 first-round pick as wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. will watch from the sideline with a hamstring injury that limited him throughout the preseason. Guard Geoff Schwartz will miss the first half of the season as he was placed on injured reserve/designated to return with a dislocated big toe on his right foot. To replace him, New York signed veteran offensive lineman Adam Snyder, who was released by San Francisco on Saturday.

ABOUT THE LIONS (2013: 7-9, 6-10 ATS, 8-8 O/U, 3rd NFC North): Stafford will have a second option after Johnson this season as Detroit added Golden Tate, who made a career-high 64 receptions for Super Bowl champion Seattle last season. That's good news for Johnson, who missed two games in 2013 due to a nagging knee injury and saw action in only one preseason contest in order to maintain his good health. "My body feels great," the superstar said. "This is as good as I've felt in a while." Stafford hopes the duo will help him eclipse the 4,500-yard plateau for a fourth straight season.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 7-0 in Lions last seven Monday games.
* Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Monday games.
* Over is 6-1 in Lions last 7 games in Week 1.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 60 percent of wagers are supporting the Lions.



San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 46.5)

The San Diego Chargers look to get off to a better start this year as they visit the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night in the season opener for both clubs. San Diego needed to finish 2013 with a four-game winning streak in order to qualify for the playoffs, where it defeated Cincinnati in a wild-card game before falling to AFC West rival Denver in the divisional round. The Chargers rode the strong play of Philip Rivers, who completed a league-leading and career-high 69.5 percent of his passes en route to Comeback Player of the Year honors.

The Cardinals reached double digits in victories for just the second time in their 26 years in Arizona but failed to reach the postseason due to the strength of the NFC West. The club went 2-4 against division rivals in 2013, including a 23-20 loss to San Francisco in the season finale. Arizona thrived at home last season, going 6-2 while allowing an impressive 17.8 points per contest, but could be without starting running back Andre Ellington, who hurt his foot Thursday and did not practice Friday.

TV: 10:20 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Westgate LV Superbook opened the Cards as 3-point faves in July and it's remained at that number. The total opened at 44.5 and is up to 46.5.

INJURY REPORT: Chargers - LB Manti Te'o (Probably, foot), TE Antonio Gates (Questionable, hamstring). Cardinals - S Tyrann Mathieu (Questionable, knee), RB Andre Ellington (Doubtful, foot).

POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (-2) + Cardinals (+1) + home field (-3.0) = Pick

WEATHER FORECAST: N/A

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (2013: 9-7, 9-6-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U, 3rd AFC West): San Diego hopes to improve upon its rank of 23rd in total defense with the return of linebacker Dwight Freeney and addition of cornerback Brandon Flowers. Freeney had his 2013 campaign abruptly ended when he tore his quadriceps in Week 4 while Flowers joins the club from division rival Kansas City, where he recorded a career-worst one interception but registered a personal-best six sacks. The Chargers were fifth in the league with an average of 393.3 total yards and could put up even better numbers with another strong effort from Rivers and a backfield that features three solid options in Ryan Mathews, Danny Woodhead and newcomer Donald Brown.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (2013: 10-6, 11-5 ATS, 8-8 O/U, 3rd NFC West): Carson Palmer had a strong initial season in the desert, throwing for a career-high 4,274 yards while completing 63.3 percent of his passes - his best mark since 2007 while with Cincinnati (64.9). Arizona's defense was a strong point in 2013, ranking sixth in both yards allowed (317.4) and sacks (47), but it took a major hit afterward. Karlos Dansby exited via free agency and fellow linebacker Daryl Washington was suspended for the entire 2014 campaign after violating the league's substance policy a second time while defensive end Darnell Dockett suffered a season-ending knee injury during training camp.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last five Monday games.
* Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Under is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 games in September.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 53 percent of wagers are behind the Chargers.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, September 8


Underdogs solid ATS between Giants-Lions

The underdog is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings between the New York Giants and the Detroit Lions.

That's a trend that will gives some hope for Giants backers as they currently sit at +6.5 road dogs for the matchup. The total is presently 47.


Road team cleaning up ATS between Cardinals-Chargers

When the San Diego Chargers and Arizona Cardinals have met recently, it's the road team that's been cashing in for spread bettors.

The visiting team is 5-1 against the spread in the last six clashes between the two. San Diego will be on the road Monday when they pay a visit to the Cardinals in the desert.

Arizona is currently three-point faves with a total of 46.5.


Trends show Chargers love high totals in September

The San Diego Chargers have a history of putting a lot of points on the board early in the year, evidenced by the Over going 4-1 in their last five September games.

The Arizona Cardinals host the Chargers in their season opening game Monday night.

The Cardinals are currently -3 faves with a total of 46.5.


Fading Super Bowl loser remains a hot trend

The Indianapolis Colts used 14-unanswered points in the fourth quarter to salvage a cover of the closing 8-point spread in their 31-24 loss to the Denver Broncos Sunday Night.

The Broncos' loss now puts the runner-up in the previous season's Super Bowl at 5-10 straight up and a dismal 3-12 against the spread in season openers since 2000.

The Super Bowl loser had taken on an average spread of -2 in Week 1 over the past 14 seasons, but after opening as touchdown faves at most shops, the Broncos closed as 8-point faves on their own turf.

Early lines have hit the board for Week 2 and oddsmakers have opened the Broncos as 12-point home faves versus the Kansas City Chiefs.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 1 underdogs a winner for sportsbooks around the globe

The dogs had their day in Week 1 of the NFL season Sunday. Pointspread underdogs finished 10-3 ATS on the first big slate of football action in 2014, handing sportsbooks across the globe a nice win to start the season.

Following a win for the favorite in the season opener between Seattle and Green Bay Thursday night – Seahawks winning 36-16 as 4.5-point chalk – the Sunday 1 p.m. kickoffs produced underdog winners in eight of the first 10 games of the day. Houston covering as a 3-point favorite versus Washington and Philadelphia coming back from 17 points down to win 34-17 as a 10-point fave were the lone favorites to hit early.

“The early games were very good for the books, and days like these are tough on the general betting public,” a spokesman for GTBets.eu told Covers. “Notable dog covers of the day were Atlanta, Miami, and Buffalo. Had Jacksonville pulled it off, it would have been a straight massacre.”

The Falcons, Dolphins and Bills were cash cows across the board for most books as well – all winning outright as underdogs. Atlanta (+3) knocked off New Orleans 37-34 in overtime, Miami (+3.5) stunned New England 33-20, and Buffalo (+7) forced overtime and eventually won 23-20 in Chicago.

“The Falcons, Bills and Dolphins we needed big,” Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, tells Covers. “Every game we were exposed on landed on our side. Very good day for the first Sunday.”

UK-based sportsbooks watched plenty of parlays burn up early with big favorites like the Patriots and Saints go down. According to Ladbrokes, Chicago was a very popular tie-in on many punters’ parlays cards, with many expecting the Bears to easily cover the touchdown spread at home.

“We did indeed have a very good Sunday with particularly well-backed favorites New England and New Orleans both losing being the most profitable of the results,” Alex Donohue of Ladbrokes tells Covers. “Chicago losing at home to Buffalo was also a good result as many punters included the Bears as a banker bet in multiples.”

In Las Vegas, bookmakers celebrated similar results. In the late afternoon starts, Carolina’s 20-14 win over Tampa Bay - with backup QB Derek Anderson in for the injured Cam Newton – was the biggest winner of the day at MGM properties.

“Carolina was the biggest win for us, beating the Bucs,” Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage, tells Covers. “That, then the Bills and the Bears tied for second. A short third was the Falcons beating the Saints.”

And even when the favorite did cash in Sunday, sportsbooks were still reaping the rewards. San Francisco dominated Dallas 28-17 as 4-point chalk. Stoneback says the wiseguy money jumped on the Cowboys, eclipsing what the public was betting on the 49ers.

“It was actually our fourth-best result of the day,” he says. “All the sharp money was on Dallas but we still had people betting the Niners. All the parlay cards and ticket count was high on San Francisco, but an onslaught of sharp money on Dallas made it a winner for us.”

The Sunday Night Football finish, with Indianapolis just covering as a 7.5-point underdog, was actually a breakeven game for bookmakers. Stoneback says there was so much first-half action on Denver and Over that it wiped out any profit from the overall game result.

“It was a small winner if that. Ninety-nine percent of the first-half bets were on Denver and the Over,” he says.

As for Monday night’s games, Stoneback doesn’t see the betting public blindly following the red-hot underdog trend from Sunday. Early money has come in on the Lions (-6.5) versus New York while siding with San Diego (+2.5).

“We’ll likely need the Giants and Cardinals, so we’ll be rooting for at least one favorite,” says Stoneback.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Rated Games:

*****........................................1 - 1

DOUBLE PLAYS..............................2 - 1

TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0


NFL Rated Games For Sept.

*****........................................1 - 1

DOUBLE PLAYS..............................3 - 2

TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0


RATED AND OPINONS ON ALL GAMES

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/07/14 16-*10-*0 6153% +*2500 Detail

09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 17-*11-*0 60.71% +2450




Monday, September 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount


N.Y. Giants - 7:10 PM ET N.Y. Giants +4.5 500 *****
Detroit - Over 45 500 DOUBLE PLAY


San Diego - 10:20 PM ET Arizona -2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Arizona - Under 46 500 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's Doubleheader

September 7, 2014


N.Y. Giants (0-0) at Detroit (0-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Detroit -6, Total: 47
Opening Line and Total: Detroit -4, Total 45.5

Two disappointing 2013 NFC teams look to start off the 2014 season with a confidence-building victory.

Last season, the Giants and Lions both had high expectations for themselves, but they both ended the year 7-9 SU. New York lost the first six games of the season in 2013 and that hole was too deep to dig out of. The Lions, on the other hand, were plagued by inconsistency all season and were never able to find their groove. When these teams met last year, the Giants prevailed 23-20 in Detroit. The game was decided on a field goal in overtime. Since 1992, the Giants are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS when playing on the road against the Lions. Since becoming the coach of the Giants, Tom Coughlin is 10-2 ATS in road games versus an NFC North opponent. For those interested in betting the total, 10 of the past 12 Monday night games that Detroit has played in have gone Under.

The Giants struggled last season, and a lot of that had to do with the poor play of their quarterback, Eli Manning. The two-time Super Bowl MVP threw for just 18 touchdowns with a career-worst 27 interceptions. New York brought in new offensive coordinator, Ben McAdoo, who will bring a similar look to what the Packers have done over the past few years. McAdoo has spent time as Aaron Rodgers’ quarterbacks coach, and the Giants are hoping that he can turn Manning back into a solid signal caller. If he is not taking care of the ball in this game, the Giants will struggle. Another player New York will rely on offensively is new RB Rashad Jennings.

The Giants signed the former Raiders rusher after a season in which he carried the football 163 times for 733 yards (4.5 YPC) and six touchdowns. Jennings is the type of no-nonsense runner that Tom Coughlin was begging for the past couple of years. His Week 1 matchup against a tough Lions front line will not be easy. The Giants defense will need to improve from last year. They allowed 223.3 passing yards per game (10th in NFL) and 108.9 rushing yards per game (14th in NFL). While those numbers don’t seem terrible, the Giants defense kept them out of many games last season. The addition of CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie should be a major boost to their secondary.

The Lions are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and it’s only a matter of time before they make themselves a threat in the NFC. The Lions brought in a new head coach in Jim Caldwell and new offensive coordinator in Joe Lombardi, who spent last season with the Saints and hopes to bring over a very similar attack. Last season, QB Matt Stafford threw for 4,650 yards with 29 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. If he can master the same offense that Drew Brees did, Stafford could be in for a big year. WR Calvin Johnson is fresh off a season in which he caught 84 passes for 1,492 yards and 12 touchdowns. He is also as healthy as he’s been in recent memory.

The signing of WR Golden Tate, who had 64 receptions for 898 yards and five touchdowns last year for Seattle, will allow Johnson to work with more room on the field. Against the Giants, it would be wise for this team to balance its offense with a heavy dose of RBs Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. At times they get too predictable when forcing the ball to Calvin Johnson. They will need to open up the field to beat the Giants. Detroit has one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL. The club allowed just 99.8 yards per game on the ground (6th in NFL) last season. The Lions must, however, improve their secondary. Last season, they were allowing 246.9 yards per game through the air (23rd in NFL).

San Diego (0-0) at Arizona (0-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Arizona -3, Total: 45
Opening Line and Total: Arizona -3.5, Total 44.5

Two of the more surprising 2013 teams face off Monday night in Arizona when the Cardinals host the Chargers.

Last season, both the Chargers and Cardinals flew under the radar but terrorized opposing coaches. San Diego went 9-7 SU and stole a Wild Card playoff spot in the AFC. Arizona missed the playoffs despite going 10-6 SU while even winning a road game in Seattle. These two teams rarely get the opportunity to face one another in the regular season, but when they have, it has been all San Diego. Since 1992, the Chargers are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS when playing against the Cardinals. When the teams have met in Arizona, San Diego has gone 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS.

Since 1992, the Chargers are 23-10 ATS in dome games. Bruce Arians, however, has gone 7-0 ATS as the Cardinals coach in home games where the Total is between 42.5 and 49 points. Four of the past seven games in this series have gone Over the total. The big injury news in this contest is Arizona star RB Andre Ellington, who is questionable with a foot injury. Teammate S Tyrann Mathieu (knee) is also questionable, while the Chargers have no key players that are questionable or doubtful for this game.

The Chargers were not expected to make the playoffs in the AFC last season, but they ended up winning 27-10 against the Bengals in the Wild Card round before losing to the Broncos 24-17 in the divisional round. Philip Rivers completely turned his career around last season, throwing for 4,478 yards with 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Rivers was accurate and made plays whenever his team needed him. One of the biggest recipients of Rivers' play was rookie WR Keenan Allen who caught 71 passes for 1,046 yards and eight touchdowns last season. The Chargers are hoping he can jump into the league’s elite in his sophomore campaign. If the passing game doesn’t get going for the Chargers, they’ll have a lot of trouble winning this game.

Arizona’s strength is stopping the run, so Rivers will need to make the most of his pass attempts. When he does hand the ball off, it will be to the three-person committee of RBs Ryan Mathews, Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead. San Diego had a solid rush defense last year, allowing just 107.8 yards per game on the ground (12th in NFL). However, the club will need to improve in defending the pass. The Chargers allowed 258.7 yards per game through the air (29th in NFL) last year. If they show up sluggish in Week 1, Carson Palmer could make them pay with deep balls quite often.

Arizona had a great season last year, but now it must set its sights on making small improvements to secure a spot in the postseason. Carson Palmer is back to orchestrate the offense after a year in which he threw for 4,274 yards with 24 touchdowns and 22 interceptions. The Cardinals will want him to make better decisions this season as he throws to a talented group of wide receivers. Also expected to lead this team is RB Andre Ellington. The former Clemson running back rushed for 652 yards and three touchdowns on just 118 carries last season. He also caught 39 balls for 371 yards and a touchdown. Ellington has breakaway speed at the running back position, but it's not clear yet if he will be sidelined by his foot injury.

The Cardinals also bolstered the best rushing defense in the league last year, allowing just 84.4 yards per game (1st in NFL). The loss of DL Darnell Dockett (knee, IR) could set them back a little in that area, but they should still be one of the better units in the league. Their secondary has some room to improve, as they allowed 233.0 yards per game through the air (14th in NFL). CB Patrick Peterson will look to establish himself as the top shutdown corner in football this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's Tip Sheet

September 7, 2014


Giants at Lions (-6 ½, 47) – 7:10 PM EST

New York finished the preseason unbeaten at 5-0, but that won’t exactly predict regular season success. The Giants began the 2013 campaign at 0-6, which not covering their first five games. New York heads to the Motor City for the season opener, taking on a Lions’ team searching for the magic of their playoff season in 2011, when Detroit started 5-0.

The Lions are loaded offensively with Matt Stafford, Reggie Bush, and Calvin Johnson at the skill positions, but Detroit dropped six of its final seven games to close out the 2013 season at 6-10. In that 1-6 stretch, Detroit covered only one time as Jim Schwartz is out as head coach and former Colts’ head man Jim Caldwell will run things this season for the Lions.

The Giants finished strong after the slow start by winning seven of the final 10 games last season, which included a 23-20 overtime triumph at Ford Field as 9 ½-point underdogs. The Lions erased a 13-3 deficit by tying the Giants at 20-20 with an interception return for a touchdown, but Josh Brown’s 45-yard field goal halfway through overtime lifted New York to the victory. The Giants have won each of the last three meetings with the Lions since 2007, which includes a pair of wins at Ford Field.

Under Tom Coughlin, the Giants have been a great ‘over’ team in road openers, going 9-1 to the ‘over’ in this situation since 2004. Last season, New York fell at Dallas in Week 1 by a 36-31 count, easily going ‘over’ the total of 48 ½. From a defensive standpoint, the Giants were torched in 2013 by allowing at least allowing at least 27 points five times away from Met Life Stadium, but cashed the ‘over’ in just three road contests.

Detroit hasn’t been a profitable team to back at Ford Field the last two seasons, posting a 5-10-1 ATS record, which includes a 3-5 ATS record in 2013. The Lions have won each of their past three season openers, including a 34-24 triumph over the Vikings in 2013 as four-point favorites. Detroit is playing its third Monday night game ever at Ford Field, as the Lions took care of the Bears, 24-13 in 2011 en route to a 5-0 start. Last season, the Lions lost on a last-second field goal to the Ravens as 4 ½-point favorites, 18-16, damaging any kind of playoff hopes in December.

Chargers at Cardinals (-3, 46 ½) – 10:20 PM EST

This situation doesn’t happen very often, when two teams play in the final preseason game then turn around and face off in the regular season opener. That’s the case in Glendale on Monday, as the Chargers won a 12-9 thriller against the Cardinals last week in a game in which no touchdowns were scored and no significant players participated.

San Diego found a way to qualify for the playoffs in 2013 with a 9-7 record thanks to four straight wins to end the season. The Chargers shocked the Bengals as six-point road underdogs in the Wild Card round, 27-10, but fell short in the divisional playoffs to the Broncos, but cashed as 7 ½-point ‘dogs. In Mike McCoy’s initial season as head coach of the Lightning Bolts, San Diego managed a 5-1-1 ATS record in the away underdog role, which included outright victories at Philadelphia, Kansas City, and Denver.

The Cardinals put together an impressive season at 10-6, but that was good for third place in the NFC West behind the Seahawks and 49ers, while missing the playoffs. Following a 3-4 start, Arizona won seven of its final nine games, as both losses in that stretch came by three points each to Philadelphia and San Francisco. Bruce Arians’ team compiled a 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS record at University of Phoenix Stadium, but the Cardinals are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against AFC opponents since 2011.

In the last regular season matchup between these teams, the Chargers blasted the Cardinals, 41-10 early in the 2010 season. San Diego is making its first meaningful trip to University of Phoenix Stadium, as the Bolts beat the Cardinals in their last regular season visit to Arizona in 2002 by a 23-15 count at Sun Devil Stadium.

[StarDust Bum]

Sportsbooks win Week 1

September 8, 2014

After the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks trounced the Green Bay Packers 36-16 last Thursday to open the 2014 NFL season, there was no way of predicting what would happen next. Public money came in on the Packers, pushing the Seahawks from 5-point favorites to -4.5 at close, and the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook got an early win.

But Sunday’s Week 1 action made the SuperBook and other sportsbooks even bigger winners, with underdogs going 7-6 straight-up and 10-3 against the spread. Wins by the Miami Dolphins (33-20 vs. the New England Patriots), the Atlanta Falcons (37-34 in overtime vs. the New Orleans Saints) and Buffalo Bills (23-20 in OT at the Chicago Bears) as dogs set the tone for a great day, according to Jay Kornegay, the SuperBook’s Vice President of Race & Sports Operations.

“The upsets – not just the covers but the outright wins by some of the underdogs – certainly treated us well,” Kornegay said. “Our bigger decisions of the day were a lot of these short favorites that so many public bettors like to support. The Saints they love, the Patriots. The 49ers got there for them, but by that time the damage had been done.

“It’s always those short favorites that we see, teams that attract a lot of public play. In the morning games, the two biggest short public teams, road favorites, lost and those were two really big decisions for us. It seems like the old days. Home dogs kind of came through for us.”

One home favorite that helped sportsbooks a lot by losing on Sunday was the Bears, who opened at -6.5 and closed at -7. Chicago tends to be a very public team and busted many parlay and teaser cards.

“As far as underdogs winning and covering, I’d have to say the Bears and the defense,” Kornegay said. “The Bills never winning in Chicago and going in there and finally winning with all their struggles at quarterback. Their linebackers are just awful.

“I’d have to say that’s one of the bigger surprises and one of our better decisions. I think that was the last straw that kind of broke the camel’s back for a lot of the bettors out there. It was the teaser killer.”

While the public won some money back on San Francisco’s 28-17 road win against the Dallas Cowboys as 3.5-point favorites, many sportsbooks were able to come right back in the Sunday Night Football game when the Indianapolis Colts (+8.5) rallied back to cover the spread in a 31-24 road loss to the Denver Broncos. However, Kornegay said the SuperBook did not really need the Colts in that one.

“The Bronco game, a lot people thought we did really well,” Konegay sad. “But we actually had a few bigger bets on the Colts. We didn’t mind accepting those thinking that we could have a liability going to the Broncos no matter what happened. Well, we didn’t think that many underdogs were going to cover, which basically eliminated so many parlays. By the time we got to the late game, it was pretty well balanced.”

The biggest line move of Week 1 took place in an NFC South matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers, who sat starting quarterback Cam Newton due to a rib injury. The Bucs opened as 2.5-point home underdogs and closed -4.5 at the SuperBook, with the line jumping from -3 when news broke that Carolina head coach Ron Rivera would likely make Newton inactive.

Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, had said late last week that the Panthers were still a good team regardless of Newton’s status, so he was not surprised by the result.

“I don’t know if they’re good or Tampa’s just not quite there yet,” Avello said. “Tampa’s probably got a long way to go. MCown’s not going to come in and be the answer and turn that team around in one year. They’ll be alright. They did fight back in the game.”

Like Kornegay, Avello said he was surprised by a few other teams that did disappoint bettors as favorites.

“The Bears losing at home was a surprise, the Patriots losing was a surprise, but I did expect big things from Miami this year,” Avello said. “The other game is probably Kansas City, the way they got beat at home because that’s usually a strong home field.”

The Chiefs looked like the same team that blew a 38-10 lead in a 45-44 loss to the Colts in the playoffs back in January, falling at home to the Tennessee Titans 26-10 as 3-point favorites. They seemed to pick up where they left off last season, just like the Bears, who some thought had fixed their defense.

“It was amazing though how we have these games up for four-and-a- half-months, all the analysis and the data and simulations and everything,” Kornegay said. “And there we are sitting at the end of day one, and a lot of us are scratching our heads. Wow, that’s not what I thought was going to happen in a lot of those games. Not all of them, but a lot of them.” Ironically, Kornegay said one of Sunday’s bigger stunners actually came courtesy of a double-digit favorite that trailed big early and not only came back to win but still managed to cover as well.

“The biggest surprise was probably the Eagles covered despite being down 17-0,” said Kornegay about Philadelphia, the biggest favorite in Week 1 at -10 who scored 34 points unanswered in a 34-17 victory.