Da bum's preseason thread with stats-trends- qb rotation etc. !!

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NFL

Friday, August 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Philadelphia - 7:30 PM ET Philadelphia +1 500

New England - Under 46.5 500


Tennessee - 8:00 PM ET Tennessee +3 500

New Orleans - Under 43.5 500


Detroit - 10:00 PM ET Oakland -2.5 500

Oakland - Under 40 500


San Diego - 10:00 PM ET San Diego +6 500

Seattle - Under 38.5 500

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Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

-- If Jimmy Graham dunks the ball after every TD pass this year and gets 15-yard penalties every time, will Brees stop throwing to him in the red zone? Not a help to kick off from the 20 after a touchdown.

-- A's have lost five of last six games, are tied in loss column with Angels, who are in a soft spot (Phillies/Rangers) of their schedule. Teams meet next weekend.

-- There is a kid in the Little League World Series who is 6-4, 229. At age 13.

-- Red Sox challenged two calls on the same play last night, lost both, then lost in extra innings to the Astros.

-- Cuban prospect Rusney Castillo is taking offers, with Bronx, Boston, Detroit said to be the three most interested team. Castillo is an outfielder.

-- Hyun-Jin Ryu heads to the DL with a pulled gluteal muscle, a genuine pain in the butt to my fantasy team, with the playoffs already underway.

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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.........

13) Rob Manfred will be next baseball commissioner; other than that, I know zero about the guy. It took him six votes of MLB teams to get the necessary 23 of 30 teams to vote for him; it was 20-10 after one vote, then 22-8 after three, before supposedly the Nationals got tired of being there and voted for Manfred so they could go home (votes took 4.5 hours).

Tampa Bay/Milwaukee were said to be two teams that flipped to get Manfred up to 22 votes. He’s going to be replacing former used car salesman Allen H Selig, someone who loves baseball, owned a team and did his best to improve the game; pretty tough act to follow.

12) Media whining about “pace of game” has gotten old quickly; do these two things and you lop 13-15 minutes off every game, immediately:
a) Ban managers/pitching coaches from ever visiting the mound during an inning, except for injuries and......
b) Cut 30 seconds per half inning of TV commercials; this has as much chance of happening as I have of dating Pamela Anderson, but it is one of the main reasons games take longer, the commercial breaks are longer.

11) Was watching old Florida-Alabama SEC title game late Thursday night on the new SEC Network; eerie watching Aaron Hernandez playi for the Gators, while announcers gushed about “…..what a great pro player this kid is going to be.”

10) Washington Nationals have won their last 11 games at Citi Field; they held the Mets to four runs in their 3-game sweep there this week.

9) Took more than a month, but Cubs finally brought Dan Straily to big leagues, hopefully to replace the hideous Edwin Jackson in the starting rotation. Its about freakin’ time. Straily ain't great, but he's better (and cheaper) than Jackson.

8) This is why coaches jump for bigger contracts: former Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe will now be analyzing ACC games on TV. He did tough duty at Wake Forest, getting one of the smallest schools in I-A football to the Orange Bowl game, a miracle of Bill Snyder-esque proportions, but eventually the Deacons didn’t win enough and he got shown the door, seven years after he turned down the Nebraska job.

It takes loyalty to turn Nebraska down and stay at Wake Forest, at least in football; Grobe is a terrific coach and would be a good option for someone next season.

7) Justin Simon, a California PG who has committed to Arizona, will spend his last year of high school at Brewster Academy in New Hampshire, a major weather downgrade. Why do kids do this? How does it help them?

He’s already got his scholarship for next year, why give up your last year of being a kid to play prep ball in New Hampshire? I’m sure there’s an excellent reason (play against better competition, maybe get better coaching) but it seems like sometimes, kids just grow up too soon.

6) Brian Hoyer is starting at QB Monday night for Cleveland; he and Johnny Manziel will play two series at a time, alternating playing with the first team OL.

5) Have Troy Tulowitzki and/or Carlos Gonzalez played their last games for the Rockies? They have this year; both are getting operated on, are finished for this season. Been a brutal year for Walt Weiss in Denver; makes you appreciate the job Clint Hurdle did there more and more.

4) Why are the Chargers/Cardinals playing in the last preseason game, then again in the season opener? What genius made that schedule?

3) In 1976, Clemson's weight room cost $250,000 to build. Alabama's new weight room costs $9 million.

2) Thursday night in St Louis, umpire Bob Davidson called the tying run out at the plate in the bottom of the 8th inning on a close play, but then IMMEDIATELY went to the kid with the replay headphones to ask for a review.

I thought he called the runner out for going out of the baseline—the catcher missed the tag, and replay people let the out call stand, so that had to be it, but the San Diego announcers were outraged and never broached that possibility. Was huge play in the game, for sure and St Louis wound up winning 4-3.

1) Injured pitcher Matt Harvey has to be driving the Mets nuts; he keeps saying he wants to pitch this year, their medical people say he should take it slow (another Met, Jeremy Hefner, re-injured his arm this month and needs another surgery) after Tommy John surgery, but Harvey seems like a spoiled brat who won’t shut up—he did a radio interview during a Met game, saying how he was throwing 95 and was almost ready.

Manager Terry Collins, whose ultimate job security will rely greatly on Harvey’s ongoing good health, apparently told the kid to put a sock in it, but then admitted to the media that Harvey can pretty much do what he wants, they can’t watch him 24 hours a day. Oy.

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NFLX
Dunkel

Week 2

Buffalo at Pittsburgh
The Steelers return home following last week's 20-16 loss to the Giants in New York as they host Buffalo on Saturday night. Pittsburgh is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's NFL preseason picks.

SATURDAY, AUGUST 16

Game 411-412: Green Bay at St. Louis (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 117.284; St. Louis 121.856
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 4 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-2 1/2); Over

Game 413-414: NY Giants at Indianapolis (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 120.028; Indianapolis 119.488
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2); Over

Game 415-416: Baltimore at Dallas (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 126.112; Dallas 119.132
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7; 37
Vegas Line: Dallas by 1; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+1); Under

Game 417-418: NY Jets at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 118.838; Cincinnati 125.989
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 7; 45
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-3 1/2); Over

Game 419-420: Buffalo at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 117.315; Pittsburgh 121.786
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-2 1/2); Under

Game 421-422: Miami at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 118.514; Tampa Bay 117.249
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2); Under

Game 423-424: Atlanta at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 119.476; Houston 119.042
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2 1/2); Over

Game 425-426: Arizona at Minnesota (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 120.519; Minnesota 124.930
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Over


SUNDAY, AUGUST 17

Game 427-428: Denver at San Francisco (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 119.393; San Francisco 125.031
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 5 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Over

Game 429-430: Kansas City at Carolina (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 123.384; Carolina 122.008
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 39
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Over


MONDAY, AUGUST 18

Game 431-432: Cleveland at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.868; Washington 123.730
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Over

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Saturday's Tip Sheet

August 16, 2014

This year’s preseason has been all about the home team and that trend continued on Friday. Prior to yesterday’s action, home teams were 15-2 straight up and that number improved to 19-2 after all four home squads captured victories last night.

Bettors also saw a bunch of low-scoring games in Week 1 but it appears that trend could be balanced out by next weekend. After watching the ‘under’ go 14-4 in the first 18 games of the preseason, the scoreboard was finally lit up on Friday as the ‘over’ went 4-0.

Seven of the eight teams in action scored 24-plus points and half of them busted 30 or more points. With starters getting more minutes and the new emphasis of penalties being called that favor the offense, bettors shouldn’t be surprised to see more points going forward.

We have eight more preseason games on Saturday and with the help of our expert handicappers, we’ll focus on four primetime matchups for you to follow.

Be sure to check out all the openers and lines moves, plus follow us on Twitter for daily NFL updates.

N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. ET)

2014 Preseason Records: NYJ (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS), CIN (0-1 SU, 0-0-1 ATS)

Week 1 Review: New York held off Indianapolis 13-10 but failed to cover as a 3 ½-point home favorite. The combined 23 points never threatened the closing total of 39. Cincinnati found itself on the short end of a wild shootout loss to Kansas City, 41-39. The Bengals earned a push (+2) with a late touchdown and two-point conversion while the ‘over’ cashed in the second quarter.

Preseason H2H: These teams didn’t meet last summer. In 2011, the Jets captured a 27-7 win at home while the Bengals returned the favor in 2012 with a 17-6 from Cincinnati.

Expert Handicapper Notes: Tony Stoffo - New York Jets at Cincinnati

We have a strong multi-year preseason trend going here - as the Bengals under head coach Marvin Lewis and the Bengals sure like to bring a big effort in their first home preseason game - as the Bengals are a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the spread the last 4 years. The Jets may be the perfect opponent to extend this streak for the Bengals as the Jets in the first road preseason game over the past 3 years are a money making 0-3.

N.Y. Giants at Indianapolis (7:00 p.m. ET)

2014 Preseason Records: NYG (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS), Indianapolis (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS)

Week 1 Review: This will be the third preseason game for the Giants, who defeated the Bills 17-13 in the Hall of Fame Game and the Steelers 20-16 last Saturday. The ‘under’ connected in both games, barely. The Colts lost a 13-10 decision to the Jets while covering as 3 ½-point road ‘dogs.

Preseason H2H: In last year’s preseason, the Colts defeated the Giants 20-12 as two-point road underdogs while the combined 32 points fell ‘under’ the closing total of 41 ½.

Expert Handicapper Notes: Mike Rose - New York’s season was over in October a year ago as the Giants started 0-6 before finishing the season 7-9. The Giants have a pair of preseason wins thanks to playing in the Hall of Fame game and their running game has shown significant improvement with the addition of RBs Rashard Jennings and rookie Andre Williams, who should be in the spotlight even more this week with backup RB Peyton Hillis out for a bit with an ankle injury suffered last week. The offensive line is clearly stronger and going to offer better protection for Eli Manning and the Giants QBs. Veteran backup Curtis Painter is 10/10 for 94 yards in the preseason and promising rookie Ryan Nassib has played well in two games going 19/33 for 220 yards. Manning may play more to get sharper in the new West Coast offense installed this year. The Giants had a top-10 defense last year while the Colts won 11 games with a defense that ranked #20 and was below average against the run and pass despite playing in a very weak division with poor QB play.

Buffalo at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. ET)

2014 Preseason Records: BUF (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS), PIT (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Week 1 Review: Similar to the Giants, this will be the third preseason game for the Bills. Buffalo bounced back from the HOF Game loss to New York with a 20-18 road win over Carolina last Friday. The Bills led from start to finish and avoided overtime by stopping the Panthers from converting a late two-point conversion. Pittsburgh fell to the aforementioned Giants 20-16 in Week 1. The Steelers offense produced nine points on three field goals while the defense helped the cause with a fumble recovery touchdown.

Preseason H2H: The pair met in 2012 and the Steelers ripped the Bills 38-7 as 2 ½-point road underdogs. The ‘over’ (39.5) cashed.

Expert Handicapper Notes: ASA – The Steelers' Mike Tomlin has been very successful in the preseason and goes out to win games. He had a 19-10 record in the preseason entering this season and they lost their opener in Week 1. After a rare “off” season last year where the Steelers finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs we expect them to emphasize winning this game in front of their home fans. Buffalo isn’t in a great spot here in our opinion. They are playing their 3rd straight week away from home after losing to the Giants in the Hall of Fame game in Canton, OH and then beating Carolina on the road last week 20-18. They squeaked by the Panthers despite the fact Carolina start QB Cam Newton didn’t even play in the game. The yardage was fairly close in that contest but the Panthers turned the ball over three times to just one for Buffalo which was the difference in the game.

Miami at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. ET)

2014 Preseason Records: MIA (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS), TB (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Week 1 Review: The Dolphins and Buccaneers both suffered 16-10 losses in Week 1 of the preseason on the road to the Falcons and Jaguars respectively. Each team also saw the ‘under’ connect as well.

Preseason H2H: These teams square off every preseason. The Buccaneers have won and covered the last three meetings, but two of the margins were decided by four points or less. Total bettors should note that the ‘under’ is 16-3 in the last 19 preseason encounters, which includes a current run of six straight.

Expert Handicapper Notes: Pat Hawkins – The Buccaneers looked very weak in their preseason opener last week against Jacksonville, losing 16-10 on the road. I expect head coach Lovie Smith and Tampa Bay to have their offense performing at a higher level than it did in the first week of the preseason. Prior to last week’s loss, Smith was 6-2 in his last eight exhibition games, which tells you that he takes these games to heart. Look for the Bucs to put a much better performance out on the field as Lovie makes his home debut against intrastate rival Miami.

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NFLX

Saturday, August 16

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Saturday's NFL Week 2 preseason betting primer
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Saturday marks the busiest day of the NFL's second week of exhibition action, with half the league taking the field. Here's a look at betting notes for the eight games scheduled for Saturday:

Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams (-2.5, 43)

* The battle for the fifth and final wide receiver job in Green Bay could very well come down to whichever of the contenders performs better Saturday afternoon; Myles Whyte, Chris Harper, Jeff Janis, Kevin Dorsey and Alex Gillett are all in the hunt. The Packers are expected to have running back Eddie Lacy make his preseason debut; he appeared in his first exhibition game against the Rams a year ago and ran for 40 yards on just eight carries.

* Quarterback Sam Bradford will see his first game action in nearly 10 months Saturday, with head coach Jeff Fisher predicting that Bradford would see at least a quarter of action - and possibly more. The Rams are expected to give running back Zac Stacy more work than the four carries he saw last week - though St. Louis didn't really need him, erupting for 150 yards on 32 carries in a 26-24 loss to the New Orleans Saints.


New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 41.5)

* Geno Smith and New York's first-team offense will play the entire first half against the Bengals, according to head coach Rex Ryan; Michael Vick will also see time under center, as will sixth-round pick Tajh Boyd, who will play ahead of Matt Simms. The Jets have won four of their last preseason games overall after dropping their previous five - including all four they played in 2012.

* Head coach Marvin Lewis told reporters that quarterback Andy Dalton will likely see between 15-25 snaps against the Jets; Dalton saw 22 and 23 snaps, respectively, in the second preseason game the last two seasons. Cincinnati will likely take it easy with its starters Saturday, as it begins a stretch of three games in 12 days that wraps up Aug. 28 against the visiting Indianapolis Colts.


Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (+1, 42.5)

* Veteran tight end Owen Daniels hasn't practiced since Monday as he deals with nagging leg soreness, and his status for Saturday night's game remains up in the air. A sprained ankle suffered by Asa Jackson - who had an interception in Baltimore's exhibition opener - has left the nickel back position wide open entering Saturday, with Chykie Brown and Dominique Franks expected to vie for playing time in Jackson's absence.

* Quarterback Tony Romo will see his first game action since undergoing back surgery in late-December; he's expected to be eased back in after participating in only 11 of the team's 16 scheduled practices - and avoiding practices on back-to-back days. Romo is expected to have his usual cast of characters against the Ravens, including running back DeMarco Murray, wide receiver Dez Bryant and tight end Jason Witten.


New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts (-2, 41.5)

* The Giants' secondary will face a major test against Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, but come in with positive momentum as the starters have yet to allow a passing touchdown through their first two preseason games. Quarterback Eli Manning has yet to really air it out - his longest throw of the preseason has been for just 10 yards - but head coach Tom Coughlin says looking for a deep strike isn't something he'll force against the Colts.

* The Colts' backfield will be a little more robust in the team's second exhibition game, with safety LaRon Landry and cornerback Vontae Davis expected to play versus the Giants after being limited by groin injuries. Luck and the first-team offense is expected to see up to 25 plays against New York, with receiver T.Y. HIlton expected to suit up despite missing a pair of practices this week.


Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 40.5)

* After receiving rave reviews from coaches and teammates - highlighted by receiver Mike Williams' assertion that Thursday's practice was "the best I've ever seen him," quarterback E.J. Manuel is expected to see plenty of time Saturday against the Steelers. He'll look to improve a scuffling Buffalo first-team offense that has managed just two field goals in five possessions through two exhibition games.

* The Steelers are expected to give all three of its prominent running backs playing time, though it's anybody's guess as to how Le'Veon Bell, LeGarrette Blount and rookie Dri Archer will be used against the Bills. Pittsburgh has been one of the worst teams in the preseason over the past season-plus, losing five straight exhibition games after going 19-6 over their previous 25 preseason contests.


Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 37.5)

* It isn't clear whether running back Knowshon Moreno (knee) will make his Dolphins debut against the Buccaneers, but he hasn't been full speed yet in practice and is expected to sit out at least another week. His absence will likely mean a decent workload for expected Week 1 starter Lamar Miller, who has reportedly looked sensational in camp.

* The focus on the Tampa Bay side of the ball will be on the progress of rookie wide receiver Mike Evans, who has looked inconsistent so far in training camp and will need to earn the No. 2 receiver job opposite Vincent Jackson. Last week's shoddy performance against the Jaguars has prompted coach Lovie Smith to shake up the offensive line, highlighted by the demotion of Jamon Meredith from the starting right guard spot.


Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans (-3, 40.5)

* Star wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones were given Thursday off to rest ahead of Saturday's tilt with the Texans; while White is expected to see the field, head coach Mike Smith hasn't said whether Jones - recovering from a major foot injury - would join him. The first team offense, led by quarterback Matt Ryan, is expected to play the entire first half in Houston.

* No. 1 quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't in danger of losing his Week 1 starting job. but could use a better performance Saturday than the one he posted in Houston's exhibition opener against the Arizona Cardinals (6-for-14, 55 yards, two interceptions.) Eyes will also be on No. 1 pick Jadeveon Clowney, who looked solid in his debut but will need to work on his drop-back coverage versus the Texans.


Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 39.5)

* Starting Cardinals tight end John Carlson is expected to see action against the team that released him back in March, but he likely won't play for long as Arizona looks to keep him fresh - and concussion-free - for the start of the regular season. Backup quarterback candidate Ryan Lindley may be playing for his spot on the roster; he's expected to see the majority of the second half.

* Fans hoping to see running back Adrian Peterson will be disappointed yet again, as the Vikings are expected to rest him until the start of the regular season - just as they have every year since 2011. The quarterback battle between Matt Cassel and Teddy Bridgewater will once again take center stage Saturday, with Cassel playing the opening half and Bridgewater expected to play the majority of the final two quarters.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, August 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount


N.Y. Jets - 7:00 PM ET Cincinnati -3 500

Cincinnati - Under 41 500


Baltimore - 7:00 PM ET Baltimore -2.5 500

Dallas - Over 42.5 500


N.Y. Giants - 7:00 PM ET N.Y. Giants +0 500

Indianapolis - Over 42 500


Buffalo - 7:30 PM ET Buffalo +1 500

Pittsburgh - Under 41 500


Miami - 7:30 PM ET Tampa Bay -2.5 500

Tampa Bay - Under 38.5 500


Atlanta - 8:00 PM ET Atlanta +3.5 500

Houston - Under 41 500


Arizona - 8:30 PM ET Minnesota -5 500

Minnesota - Over 40.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Preseason Tips

August 17, 2014

Week 2 Recap: The home teams put up a 5-0 straight-up and 3-2 against the spread record on Thursday and Friday. The road clubs bounced back nicely on Saturday night by compiling a 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS record, as the Vikings and Steelers each won by a combined five points at home with late scores. The ‘over’ went 4-4 last night after the ‘over’ finished a perfect 4-0 on Friday night.

Broncos at 49ers (-4 ½, 41 ½) – 4:00 PM EST

2014 Preseason Records: DEN (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), SF (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Previous preseason meeting: Broncos beat 49ers, 10-6 as three-point road underdogs in 2013.

Preseason review: Denver picked up a tiny bit of revenge from this past February’s Super Bowl beatdown by Seattle, as the Broncos rallied past the Seahawks, 21-16 as one-point home ‘dogs. The 49ers traveled east and didn’t put up much of a fight in a 23-3 defeat to the Ravens. San Francisco was outgained by nearly 200 yards, while Baltimore held the ball for almost 40 minutes.

Expert Analysis: Doc’s Sports - Denver has been getting blown out in Week 2 of the exhibition season and we fully expect that trend to continue on Sunday. The Broncos lost last year by 30 points and by 20 points in 2012 (both losses to Seattle). San Francisco is opening up a new stadium and that will give them the little extra effort needed to win this game by 7 to 10 points. This will be another regular season rematch and thus I do not expect the Broncos to move it up-tempo and John Fox is just 4-8 in Week 2 in the preseason.

Chiefs at Panthers (-3 ½, 40) – 8:00 PM EST

2014 Preseason Records: KC (1-0 SU, 0-0-1 ATS), CAR (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Previous preseason meeting: Chiefs beat Panthers, 30-10 as 3 ½-point home favorites in 1997.

Preseason review: Kansas City outlasted Cincinnati, 41-39, but pushed as two-point favorites. The Chiefs benefited from a pair of interception returns for touchdowns to win their third straight exhibition contest dating back to last August. Cam Newton sat out Carolina’s preseason opening loss to Buffalo, 20-18 as short home underdogs. The Panthers scored on a pair of long touchdown passes, but a late two-point conversion failed to tie the game.

Expert Analysis: Tony Stoffo - With Newton nursing offseason ankle surgery and an unsettled offensive line, the Panthers could only manage six points and 70+ yards in the first half against the Bills in Week 1. While even though the Chiefs put up 41 points on the Bengals in the first half, they could only manage three offensive field goal drives as the rest of their points were on 80-yard punt return and a 36-yard Sean Smith pick-six for a score. So I feel we have a ton of value in this total as the public and the odds makers have over-reacted to what the Chiefs did and posted an extremely high total here.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, AUGUST 17

Game 427-428: Denver at San Francisco (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 119.393; San Francisco 125.031
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 5 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Over

Game 429-430: Kansas City at Carolina (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 123.384; Carolina 122.008
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 39
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NFC West NFL betting preview: Niners primed for a fall in tough division

When the Seahawks defeated the 49ers in last year's NFC Championship Game, Richard Sherman called it "the real Super Bowl". Seattle and San Francisco remain favorites to win the NFL West, but don't forget about Arizona. The Cardinals won 10 games in 2013 behind a strong defense loaded with youth and talent.

Seattle Seahawks (2013: 13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS)

Odds to win division: -105
Season win total: 10.5

Why to bet the Seahawks: Quarterback Russell Wilson will be in just his third season as a starter. He's shown plenty of poise in his first two years and there’s every reason to assume he'll only get better. If Percy Harvin can stay healthy or rookie Paul Richardson makes an impact, we could see the Seahawks offense make strides in 2014. No team enjoys as much of a home-field advantage as the Seahawks with their 12th man at CenturyLink Field, where they are 15-1 the last two seasons.

Why not to bet the Seahawks: There really aren't many reasons to doubt the Seahawks, but they will come into the 2014 season with a target on their back. Everyone wants to beat the champions and the last two Super Bowl winners have gone on to miss the playoffs in the following season (New York and Baltimore).

Season win total pick: Over 10.5


San Francisco 49ers (2013: 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS)

Odds to win division: +130
Season win total: 10.5

Why to bet the 49ers: San Francisco was so close to winning the Super Bowl two seasons ago and came up just short in the NFC Championship Game, losing to the eventual Super Bowl winners in Seattle last season. The Niners have a talented young quarterback who many consider to have the biggest arm in the NFL. With Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin, Colin Kaepernick has no shortage of dangerous targets.

Why not to bet the 49ers: Injuries have taken their toll on San Francisco, which lost Kendall Hunter to a torn ACL, and LaMichael James to a dislocated elbow in training camp. That leaves the backfield in a fragile state, with an aging Frank Gore backed up by an injury-prone Marcus Lattimore and unproven rookie in Carlos Hyde. They also lost Glen Dorsey (out for the season) and Navarro Bowman, who is expected to miss at least the first half of 2014.

Season win total pick: Under 10.5


Arizona Cardinals (2013: 10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS)

Odds to win division: +800
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Cardinals: On the defensive side of the ball, the secondary will continue to be very good provided Tyronn Mathieu is healthy and top draft choice Deone Bucannon lives up to advanced billing. The Cardinals finished with the No. 1 run defense in 2013 and they’re the only team to have beaten the Seahawks in Seattle in the past two seasons.

Why not to bet the Cardinals: There’s concern in the linebacking corps as Karlos Dansby bolted to Cleveland and Daryl Washington has been suspended for the season. Along with safety Yeremiah Bell, who wasn't resigned, the team's top three tacklers from last season (270 in total) are all gone. It could be a rough year for Carson Palmer, as Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis all have ferocious pass rushes that will make life miserable for the immobile veteran quarterback.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5


St. Louis Rams (2013: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Odds to win division: +1,000
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Rams: Sam Bradford only played seven games last year, yet the Rams still managed to win seven games while playing in the toughest division in the league. His numbers look pretty impressive, with 14 touchdowns and just four interceptions. This could be the year that the Rams quarterback finally reaches his potential.

Why not to bet the Rams: While they look solid on defense and the running game should be strong with Zac Stacy coming off an impressive rookie campaign, there are still plenty of questions regarding this offense. The Rams averaged fewer than 200 yards passing per game and they don't exactly have a star-studded corps of receivers.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5

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Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

-- Texans 32, Falcons 7-- Houston lost 32-0 last week; you figure coaches put the hammer down and demanded more this game. Hard Knocks will be interesting to watch this week; rough night for the Falcons.

-- Giants 27, Colts 26-- Indy led 26-0 in 4th quarter. People bet on these games, but I'm not sure why.

-- Braves 4, A's 3-- Oakland lost six of its last seven games :-(

-- Vikings 30, Cardinals 28-- Teddy Bridgewater was 16-20/177 passing ball, led winning TD drive in last minute. Arizona led 21-13 after third quarter.

-- Brewers 3, Dodgers 2-- LA's 13-game win streak in Kershaw starts ends.

-- 9 of 16 guys left on Team USA haven't played in one NBA All-Star Game.

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Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind.........

13) Getting rid of the DH would help shorten baseball games; which do you think take longer, pitchers' AB's or David Ortiz AB's? Plus, with no DH you get fewer pitching changes within a half-inning, each of which is 4-5 minutes.

12) Greedy bastard update: For a mere $749, you can have two stadium seats from old Candlestick Park, which is being wrecked this year, with 49ers moving to a new stadium. Wonder how many suckers will buy those?

11) Staying in San Francisco for a minute, the baseball Giants are just 9-23 in their last 32 home games. No bueno.

10) New Jersey Giants have a new OC, 37-year old Ben McAdoo; Tom Coughlin's coaching career was already underway for eight years when McAdoo was born.

9) Giants' backup QB Curtis Painter has played in 14 games over his three seasons in the NFL; he started eight games for the Colts in 2011, when Peyton Manning was hurt. Colts were 0-8 in those games; Painter threw six TDs, nine INTs. You would think the Giants could find a better backup QB.

8) One last Giant note: NFL Fact Book lists seven senior VPs, seven regular VPs in the Giants' front office. Steelers list 17 people, in their entire front office.

7) Some NFL regular season games with coaching subplots:
-- Oct 26-- Vikings-Bucs-- Minnesota fired Bucs' DC Leslie Frazier as HC.
-- Nov 23-- Bucs-Bears-- Chicago fired Lovie Smith two years ago.
-- Dec 7-- Colts-Browns-- Cleveland fired Rob Chudzinski, after one year.

6) Bronx Bombers lost five of their last six games, scoring 10 runs; most teams juggle their lineup when they struggle, but Joe Girardi hasn't. Derek Jeter has batted 437 times this season; he's batted in the 2nd slot 427 of those 437 times. Girardi is a smart guy, but appears his hands are tied by having an aging legend on his team.

5) There are 63 offensive/defensive coordinators in the NFL (Houston doesn't list an OC, with Bill O'Brien as HC). 15 of the 63 are former NFL head coaches.

4) Aaron Rodgers looked very sharp in his preseason debut, but its hard to tell; did the Rams game plan on defense? I hope not; they didn't offer much resistence.

3) You look at Bucs' coach Lovie Smith's resume, you see he was at Arizona State from 1988-91, when Larry Marmie was the head coach. You look at Tampa Bay's coaching staff now, you see Larry Marmie as an assistant coach on defensive side of the ball. You want/need assistant coaches you can trust.

2) Kevin Sutherland shot first 59 ever on the Senior Golf Tour and he bogeyed the 18th hole- he shot 71 Friday, only leads by one stroke. Don't think anyone has ever shot a 58 on the PGA Tour; Sutherland would've, if he parred the 18th.

1) Don't just look at the scores: Ravens led 27-10 at halftime in Dallas, but defense scored a TD, then they ran a kick back for a TD. Baltimore's offense never took the field until 3:21 remained in the first quarter- they had a 96-yard TD drive before the half, but the 27 first half points is a little misleading.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, August 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount


Denver - 4:00 PM ET San Francisco -4 500

San Francisco - Over 41.5 500


Kansas City - 8:00 PM ET Kansas City +3 500

Carolina - Over 40.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend.......

13) Cab driver in Las Vegas posted all 23 of his fares on Twitter Saturday, adding what tip they gave him. After 23 fares, he had $69.30 in tips, so I learned that I'm a better than average tipper.

12) Reds-Rockies game was postponed Saturday because of a water main break outside the stadium, on a sunny day. They played a split doubleheader Sunday because Todd Helton's number 17 was retired yesterday- that game was sold out.

11) If you make the Hall of Fame, they'll make a bobblehead of you; former White Sox/A's/Cardinal skipper Tony Larussa had a bobblehead night in Oakland August 9, a figurine day in St Louis yesterday and has a bobblehead day in Chicago Aug. 30.

10) It takes 27 outs to win a ballgame; quality starting pitchers get you 21+ outs on a regular basis; pretty good starters get you 18+ outs. Suspect starters that cannot finish the 6th inning leave the bullpen exposed to overuse.

Teams like Houston/Bronx who struggle late in games, have starters who struggle getting those 18 outs; that puts undue strain on the bullpen.

9) Rough week for the A's, who are 7-10 since Lester/Cespedes trade; not sure if its a blip in schedule- all teams have rough times in a six-month season, or if its a real problem, as in, "...we traded our best hitter and now we can't score."

8) I can make trades in my fantasy league and it does not affect the team, since they are oblivious to what I'm doing-- there is no such thing as team chemistry in fantasy sports, but in Oakland, they basically blew up their offense. Hard as I try, I can't remember a contending team who traded their cleanup hitter during the season.

When the Samardzija trade happened, I wrote, "he (Cespedes) gives the low-budget A's their swagger--once he walks and breaks the bank, a lot of their invincibility goes too," Well, he didn't walk, he got traded and it seems a lot of Oakland's swagger has gone away, at least until someone else steps up and gets some big base hits.

7) It'll all come out in the end next month, whether the trades worked or not, but I wonder if one more trade for a right-handed bat isn't in Billy Beane's future? A's need more pop in their lineup; doesn't matter who pitches if you can't score.

6) Remember how NFL teams always had those Polaroids faxed down to the bench so players could study formations? Polaroids have been replaced by tablets; saw a few guys (including Bill Belichick) looking at tablets during games this weekend.

5) Took 55 at-bats, but Cubs' 2B prospect Javier Baez finally got his first major league walk; he struck out 21 times before that first walk.

4) Shouldn't major league teams have interpreters for all players who struggle to speak English? Asian players seem to have more interpreters than Hispanic guys who struggle just as much, making a living in a foreign country. Can't be easy.

3) The way NFL rules are set up now, if you don't throw a lot of vertical passes, you're a damn fool. Defensive backs aren't allowed to breathe on receivers, there are ton of penalties called on DBs, to point where I think eventually, they'll switch to the college rule, where pass interference is 15 yards. Got to stretch the defense.

2) Memo to directors on NFL games: Don't show hits on QBs in slow motion; it almost always looks like roughing the passer that way. Show it at real speed.

1) Browns-Redskins on ESPN tonight; Johnny Manziel vs RGIII. Browns said they will alternate QBs every third series. Jon Gruden is analyst on game where his brother Jay is coaching the Redskins; not sure how that will go. Browns' game last week got good ratings on NFL Network. Its still just a preseason game.

[StarDust Bum]

NFLX
Dunkel

Week 2

MONDAY, AUGUST 18

Game 431-432: Cleveland at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.868; Washington 123.730
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NFLX

Monday, August 18

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Game of the Day: Browns at Redskins
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Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins (-2.5, 41.5)

Robert Griffin III will get his first chance to unleash his new offensive approach Monday night as the Washington Redskins entertain the Cleveland Browns in the final game of the second week of the NFL's exhibition schedule. Griffin and the rest of the first-team offense operated a run-heavy strategy in the opener against New England, attempting just four passes. It didn't matter, as the Redskins led from start to finish en route to a 23-6 triumph.

Quarterbacking is also the main focus in the Browns' camp, where the battle for the Week 1 starting role rages on between current favorite Brian Hoyer and popular rookie Johnny Manziel. Hoyer will start Monday's showdown against the Redskins and will likely play most or all of the first half, while Manziel will take the helm for the majority of the second half. Manziel outperformed Hoyer in Cleveland's 13-12 loss to Detroit last weekend.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at Washington -3 but has since fallen a half-point. The O/U has risen by one point to 41 1/2.

INJURY REPORT: Cleveland: CB Buster Skrine (thumb) is out; DE Desmond Bryant (wrist) is questionable. Washington: DE Jason Hatcher (knee), ILB Darryl Sharpton (ankle) and RB Chris Thompson (ankle) are out; SS Brandon Meriweather (toe) is questionable.

ABOUT THE BROWNS (0-1): Hoyer has been generating plenty of attention so far in the preseason - much of it negative - but the veteran signal-caller isn't bothered by suggestions he may wind up either as the No. 2 quarterback or as a member of another team. "It doesn't matter," he told reporters last week. "What matters is what coach Mike Pettine thinks and what (offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan) thinks." Hoyer will need a strong showing against the Redskins, with Pettine expected to name his Week 1 starter Tuesday.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (1-0): It's a brand new day for Griffin and the Redskins' offense, which will look decidedly different under new head coach Jay Gruden. For starters, Griffin will be encouraged to call audibles depending on how opposing defenses are set up - something former offensive coordinator Shanahan avoided. "It's a quarterback's dream," Griffin said. "You want to have some control at the line of scrimmage to get out of some things and protect yourself with different protections."

TRENDS:

* Washington racked up 430 total yards in its exhibition opener; Cleveland had just 291.
* The Redskins are 11-2 in their last 13 preseason games.
* The Browns have allowed more than 20 points just once in their last five exhibition contests.

CONSENSUS: 61.84 percent of wagers on Consensus are backing the host Redskins.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, August 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cleveland - 8:00 PM ET Washington -2 500

Washington - Under 41.5 500