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**Udog** · 07-15-2014, 08:34 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

-- OK, Marv Albert doing summer league games on TV is weird, like it would be if Lebron James were playing in these games.

-- Nobody on the Dodgers hooked up Yasiel Puig with a batting practice pitcher? Robinson Cano's dad pitched to him.

-- SMU's big recruit, PG Emmanuel Mudiay, will skip college and pay pro ball in either Asia or Europe; rumor is he was going to have eligibility issues.

-- Not sure if this is related, but SMU picked up Ben Emelogu, a Virginia Tech transfer who averaged 10.5 ppg LY and will be eligible in 2015-16.

-- Troy Tulowitski's dog is named Ripken.

-- Cleveland Browns' owner Jimmy Haslem's truck-stop company agreed to pay a $92M penalty for cheating customers out of rebates and discounts. Yikes.

**********

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.........

13) If you see a young pitcher miss a start here or there, could be the pitcher isn’t hurt, teams are trying to find ways to limit their innings for the season, so as to not exceed 20% of their previous year’s (or career high) total.

Going over 20% of the previous season has been pegged as a cause of arm injuries. Rather than end a pitcher’s season in August, they’re going to try and give extra days here and there in between starts. It’s a tougher decision on how to deal with young pitchers on contending teams.

12) Los Angeles Lakers don’t have a coach yet; not sure how you go through summer league without a head coach/philosophy in place for the season, but that’s what they’re doing.

11) I speculated yesterday that Lebron James’ two-year contract had something to do with the Cavaliers’ new coach; apparently it actually has to do with the fact that the NBA’s labor agreement with the players ends in two years, so Lebron’s people want to be open to taking advantages of any new changes in the CBA that would benefit him.

10) Speaking of NBA coaches, Memphis coach Dave Joerger was on NBAtv during their game Sunday night and he was a chatterbox; they practically had to drag him off the air when they went to a commercial. Interesting guy to listen to.

9) Sonny Gray has been a classic stopper for the A’s this year; in nine starts after a loss, Gray is 7-1, 1.75. Sunday’s win in Seattle was especially important, keeping the Mariners eight games behind at the break.

8) AHL is going to a 7:00 OT, with teams going to 3-on-3 on the first whistle after the 3:00-to-play mark. 3-on-3 should create lot of scoring chances.

7) Creighton rookie Doug McDermott had 31 points for the Bulls in a summer league game; they also have Canisius rookie Billy Baron- both skilled shooters played for their dads in college.

6) You think about Nolan Ryan getting shoved out of the front office by the Texas Rangers, and then about how the Rangers have floundered this year and you wonder what Ryan is thinking about their plight. Doubt there’s a lot of sympathy there.

5) Wonder how much having the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas helps UNLV’s recruiting, or if it does at all? Kids watch these games, they see the arena and the city, you’d think it has to help a little bit.

4) We talked a few days ago about how Bronx Bomber starting pitchers have gotten only 33 outs all season, after the 7th inning. In his 20 starts this season, Johnny Cueto has gotten 35 outs after the 7th inning.

3) If you care about such things, AL holds a 103-87 edge over the NL in interleague play; that’s how I would decide who gets home field for the World Series, which league won interleague play.

2) You listen to NBA rookies at summer league and “speed of the game” is the one phrase that is repeated a lot. NBA games are just faster, with bigger, more skilled players than the college game.

1) The biggest question I have about Home Run Derby is this: Is it more popular than the actual All-Star Game? I don’t think one additional person watches the All-Star Game because it determines home field for the World Series- ratings are down for it. If they went USA against the World every other year, that could jazz the All-Star Game up a little bit.

**Udog** · 07-15-2014, 08:35 AM

Game of the Day: MLB All-Star Game

National League at American League (-107, 7.5)

Some of the faces will change but one theme remains the same for Tuesday's Major League All-Star Game: A retiring member of baseball's most storied franchise will command center stage for the second straight year. Retiring New York Yankees captain Derek Jeter gets the start at shortstop in his 14th and final Midsummer Classic looking to lead the American League to its eighth win in 11 years. Seattle ace Felix Hernandez draws the start for the AL against St. Louis right-hander Adam Wainwright.

Nike will commemorate Jeter's All-Star farewell with the launch of a commercial titled “RE2PECT” on Tuesday night that features a Who's Who of celebrities as well as opponents and fans paying homage to the future Hall of Famer. On the field, the AL will pit a stacked lineup featuring Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout and Nelson Cruz against a top-heavy National League pitching staff with two 12-game winners and a pair of 11-game winners. Home-field advantage goes to the victor - no small matter since the winning league has taken home the World Series title for five straight years.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, FOX

LINE HISTORY: Most books opened the American League as -110 home faves. The total opened 8 and has dropped to 7.5.

PITCHING MATCHUP: National League RH Adam Wainwright (12-4, 1.83 ERA) vs. American League RH Felix Hernandez (11-2, 2.12)

Hernandez was an obvious choice for Boston manager John Farrell after he went 8-1 over his last 12 starts and has allowed two runs or fewer while pitching at least seven innings in his last 11 outings. A five-time All-Star and former Cy Young Award winner, Hernandez's only loss during that stretch came in a 1-0 setback to Texas on June 13. Waiting in the wings is reigning Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer of Detroit - last year's AL starter along with a pair of strong left-handed starters in Oakland's Scott Kazmir and Boston's John Lester.

NL manager Mike Matheny of the Cardinals couldn't go wrong in choosing between Wainwright or Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, who has won eight consecutive starts and has allowed one run over his last 45 innings. Wainwright has pitched at least seven innings and yielded two runs in 15 of 19 starts and is 4-1 with six runs allowed over his last seven turns. Zack Greinke is well rested and could follow Dodgers teammate Kershawk to the mound for the NL, which has such depth that Cincinnati 12-game winner Alfredo Simon was a last-minute replacement.

TRENDS:

* Under is 8-0 in the past eight All-Star Games.
* The National League has won three of the previous four All-Star Games.
* The road team is 4-1 in the past five All-Star Games.

CONSENSUS: 63.64 percent of wagers on Consensus are on the American League.

Here's your weather report for the All-Star Game

It's looking like it's going to be a great night for baseball in Minneapolis Tuesday for the MLB All-Star Game. The forecast is currently calling for clear skies with a temperature of 64 degrees Fahrenheit at gametime.

The AL is presently a -107 fave with a total of 7.5.

**Udog** · 07-15-2014, 08:36 AM

Red-hot MLB All-Star Game total streak will surprise baseball bettors

When you think of All-Star Games, you're automatically drawn to images of high-scoring, highlight-reel action. Unless, of course, we’re talking about the MLB All-Star Game.

While other all-star showcases, like the NBA All-Star Game or NFL Pro Bowl, are known for their outpouring of offense, the MLB Mid-Summer Classic has displayed defense over the past eight years. And, totals bettors playing the under have cashed in each and every year in that span.

This season, the oddsmakers have cooked up a 7.5 total for Tuesday’s All-Star Game at Target Field in Minnesota. According to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, sportsbooks “look at past All-Star performances, the strength of the All-Star teams’ pitching staff and the stadium” when setting the total.

Last year, the American League blanked the National League 3-0, staying well Under the 8-run number set by oddsmakers. The year before, the NL shutout the AL 8-0 which just stayed below the 8.5-run total. In 2011, the NL won 5-1 with a total of eight runs. In 2010, the final score was 3-1 with a total of 8.5.

Books pegged the 2009 ASG with a 9.5-run number but the AL edged the NL 4-3. The two leagues produced that same score over 15 innings with a 10-run total in 2008. In 2007, the ASG finished 5-4 and just under the 10-run mark. And in 2006, the AL and NL combined for a 3-1 score which was well below the 10-run total.

Target Field has helped the Minnesota Twins produce a 47-42-5 Over/Under count at home this season and boasts the third highest park factor in the majors at 1.124 (a rating above 1.000 favors the hitter). Since opening in 2010, Target Field has transitioned from a pitcher-friendly park in 2010 and 2011, to a hitter’s park in 2012, 2013 and 2014.

MLB All-Star Games have posted an average of 4.78 collective runs between 2006 and 2013.

**Udog** · 07-15-2014, 08:37 AM

Indians midseason report: Average play, .500 record

CLEVELAND -- The Cleveland Indians went into the All-Star break with a record of 47-47. It's the 13th time this season they have been exactly at the .500 mark, and for most of the first half they haven't wavered more than three games above or below .500.

It will likely be a challenge for the Indians to mount a serious push for the postseason in the second half unless they start to get some consistent production from their injured and under-performing players. Two key players are currently on the disabled list: right-hander Justin Masterson and center fielder and leadoff hitter Michael Bourn.

Masterson is out with an inflamed right knee, but General Manager Chris Antonetti said the Indians expect him to be activated within a week following the resumption of play after the All-Star break. Bourn is behind Masterson in his rehab, and could still be sidelined for another couple of weeks.

Masterson has been one of the biggest disappointments on the team this year. A 14-game winner and All-Star selection last year, Masterson this year is 4-6 with a 5.51 ERA. It's hard to see the Indians climbing back into contention without a big second half from Masterson.

Antonetti said he is "exploring a lot of different things" in trade talks with other teams, but he is quick to add that the biggest need for the Indians in the second half is for the players being counting on to produce to start producing. In addition to Masterson, that list would also include designated hitter Nick Swisher, first baseman Carlos Santana, second baseman Jason Kipnis and utilityman Ryan Raburn, all of whom were important contributors last season.

Swisher has more errors than home runs, which is one reason he is being used more as a designated hitter than first baseman. The switch hitting Santana has shown some life lately, but he is still hitting just .189 against right-handed pitchers. Kipnis, like Masterson an all-star last year, is hitting just .255 with three home runs and 24 RBIs after hitting .284 with 17 home runs and 84 RBIs last year.

Raburn hit 16 home runs in 243 at-bats as a super sub last year, but this year he has hit just two home runs in 151 at-bats. With the exception of right-hander Corey Kluber, who had an all-star-caliber first half, the starting rotation has been in a constant state of flux.

So for the Indians to become a factor in the race in the second half, what they need most is simply better production from the players already on the roster. "I wish our record was better," said manager Terry Francona. "But I think the way we played (to get back to .500), the next two months, if we play good baseball, it's going to be very exciting."

**Udog** · 07-15-2014, 08:39 AM

White Sox midseason report: Consistently inconsistent

CHICAGO -- There are days the streaky White Sox look like contenders.

Then there are stretches like the four losses in five games heading into this week's All-Star break that leaves Chicago looking like anything but.

The White Sox flirted with .500 much of the season and their current 45-50 mark is eight wins better than at last year's break and six ahead of their pace after 95 games (39-56) in 2013.

Credit rookie Jose Abreu and left-handed pitcher Chris Sale for much of improvement and overachievement for a South Side team that lost 99 games last year.

Abreu, a 27-year-old first baseman from Cuba, tops the majors with 29 home runs and has twice been named American League rookie of the month and was also AL Player of the Month once. It's hard to imagine much White Sox success without him.

Sale's 8-1 record trails only Jose Contreras' 9-0 first half record in 2006 among best starts in White Sox history. Sale has a 2.08 ERA through 14 starts and has struck out 102 while walking just 16.

Abreu, Sale and shortstop Alexei Ramirez were set to represent the White Sox at this week's All-Star Game in Minneapolis. Sale was winner of the AL's Final Vote contest.

Even with Sale, the White Sox rank near the bottom of the American League in ERA (4.17), saves (19) and walks and hits per inning pitched (1.39). And 12 blown saves are tied for third most in the league. Closer Ronald Belisario (3-6) has struggled with a 6.35 ERA and just eight saves in 38 appearances.

Chicago stands 10 1/2 games behind first place Detroit, which seems poised to run away with the division in the second half.

So the only hopes for postseason lie with a wild card berth. And right now the White Sox are seventh in the wild-card standings, 6 1/2 games behind the co-wild card leading Angels and Mariners.

**Udog** · 07-15-2014, 08:41 AM

Twins midseason report: Upcoming homestand is key

The two weeks between the All-Star Game and the July 31 trade deadline will go a long way toward deciding whether the Minnesota Twins will be a buyer or a seller at the end of the month.

The Twins (44-50) improved significantly after three consecutive 90-loss campaigns and are 4 1/2 games better at the break this season than they were last year (39-53). At 10 1/2 games out of first place in the American League Central race, Minnesota appears on the surface as if it should be a seller. However, the Twins begin the second half with a season-long, 10-game homestand.

"This week was a big week for us," Twins second baseman Brian Dozier said. "Coming back from the All-Star break with 10 games at home, everything plays in our favor. We've just got to go out and win."

With the Tampa Bay Rays (44-53), Chicago White Sox (45-51) and Cleveland Indians (47-47) the opponents coming in during the stretch at home, the Twins could make up some ground between now and July 31.

"I know how the business side of it is, but it's our job to make those decisions hard," Dozier said. "I want to contend. I believe we can. We've got the people to do it. I'm not saying we may not need a couple extra pieces to do it, but we're going to be just fine."

The past month was disappointing for the Twins, who sat only three games under .500 on June 8 when they surprised the baseball world by signing veteran slugger Kendrys Morales to a one-year, prorated $12 million contract. At the time, the Twins were only five games behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central and 3 1/2 out of a wild-card spot.

"Why not the Twins?" Minnesota general manager Terry Ryan asked rhetorically after signing Morales.

By June 13, the Twins were just 3 1/2 games back in the division race and 2 1/2 out in the wild-card chase. However, a five-game losing streak that began June 24 in Anaheim set the Twins back, and by the end of it, Minnesota was nine games behind surging Detroit.

Another three-game losing streak in early July added another 1 1/2 games onto the Twins' hole, but a 5-2 road trip to Seattle and Colorado to end the first half provided a glimmer of hope.

**Udog** · 07-15-2014, 08:42 AM

Royals midseason report: Club hoping for surge

The Kansas City Royals entered the 2014 season coming off their best record since 1989. They replaced starting pitcher Ervin Santana with Jason Vargas and were counting on solid seasons from Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura. They struggled through the first half of 2013 and then caught fire in the second half, finishing with an 86-76 record.

Expectations were riding high in Kansas City. Through the first half of 2014, plus a few games, the team has pretty much met expectations thus far. At the All-Star break, the Royals are 48-46 and in second place in the American League Central, 6 1/2 games behind Detroit.

The offense still has to jell. The Royals are fourth in the American League with a .264 average, but they’re in the bottom half in runs. They’re last in walks and home runs, by a sizeable margin.

“Most of our guys -- Moose and Hoz included -- are second-half guys,” manager Ned Yost said. “All the signs are pointing upwards for us.”

At this point, all Yost can do is hope that it holds true again this season. “As an organization, we’ve said that those are the guys who are going to carry us offensively. I have no idea (why they’re second-have guys). If I knew, I would have fixed it.”

Yost can count on a solid rotation and a lights-out bullpen. The Royals have a combined ERA of 3.78, good for third best in the American League. The starters have a combined ERA of 3.57. Wade Davis, who is used primarily to protect a lead in the eighth inning, is 5-2 with a 1.16 ERA. And Greg Holland is going to his second straight All-Star Game with 25 saves in 26 chances.

The Royals are counting on a repeat of 2013, when they went 42-27 after the All-Star break. That kind of production in 2014 will put them right at the 90-win mark.

And the Royals, who have the longest postseason drought in the four major American professional sports, will take their chances with that.

**Udog** · 07-15-2014, 08:44 AM

Tigers midseason report: Streaky season

Things look bright for Detroit the remainder of the season after the Tigers entered the All-Star break with their third-largest lead to that point in the season, 6 1/2 games over the second-place Kansas City Royals.

Manager Brad Ausmus confesses he'll now begin to take peeks at the standings after spending the first half professing he isn't all that concerned about who sits where early in the season.

"Now, I might take a cursory look every once in a while," he said. "But if we keep our house in order, everything should work out fine."

Detroit was streaky up to the All-Star break, opening 27-12 before going 9-20 to fall out of first place when Kansas City swept the Tigers in a three-game set at Comerica Park to take a 1 1/2-game lead that evaporated in a couple of days.

The Tigers went into the break on a 17-6 spurt that included taking three of four from the Royals to take that 6 1/2-game lead. Detroit will have 71 games left when it resumes play July 18 at home against Cleveland.

"We've played much better the last three weeks," Ausmus said. "We hope to enjoy the time off and then come back and start over."

Spring training ended with the Tigers wondering who would replace shortstop Jose Iglesias, out for the year with shin splints in both legs. Rookie Eugenio Suarez, hauled up from Double-A after a brief test with Triple-A Toledo, has answered that question with solid defense and better-than-expected hitting.

The Tigers hit well until they hit their skid but outfielder J.D. Martinez emerged seemingly from nowhere and took a .346 average with 13 home runs and 43 RBIs into the break. The second portion of the schedule will show whether he's for real but his presence helped them out of their slump and made it much more difficult for teams to get through the middle of the Detroit lineup without difficulty.

"It seems like every team that does well has someone you don't expect to do well," Ausmus said. "There's always someone that steps up that plays well, hits well, pitches well."

Detroit's rotation has remained largely intact for the second year in a row, but bullpen reinforcements are expected due to inconsistencies at the back end. Closer Joe Nathan has 19 saves, but he also sports a 5.61 ERA and went nearly a month where closing a game for him was like closing your eyes and taking a swing at your hand with a hammer -- painful.

The Tigers have added veteran relievers Jose Veres and Octavio Dotel following the break in recent years to help them to the playoffs and some acquisitions such as that can be expected.

If teams figure out J.D. Martinez and take away Suarez's bat, Detroit could have problems down the stretch.

But the club should get immediate help with the return of Victor Martinez, who missed 11 of the club's last 13 games with a sore right side.

"He took some swings off the tee (July 13) and felt good," Ausmus said. "He's going to rest it the next four days. We'll come back Friday (July 18) and see how it feels."

With his club holding a 6 1/2-game lead with 71 to play, he should feel pretty good.

**Udog** · 07-15-2014, 08:47 AM

NBA roundup: Heat sign three

Miami Heat president Pat Riley continues to move on with life after LeBron James, announcing three signings on Monday.

The Heat officially re-signed guard Mario Chalmers and signed free agent forwards Josh McRoberts and Danny Granger.

The signings come one day after forward Luol Deng signed a two-year deal with the Heat worth $10 million per season.

The Heat plan to team Deng with the freshly re-signed Chris Bosh and also hope to re-sign free agent Dwyane Wade in the wake of James' decision to return home to the Cleveland Cavaliers.

---The Dallas Mavericks acquired forward Greg Smith from the Chicago Bulls in exchange for the rights to Tadija Dragicevic.

Smith (6-foot-10, 250 pounds) is a three-year veteran and holds averages of 3.5 points, 2.5 rebounds and 14.4 minutes in 89 career games (10 starts) with the Houston Rockets. He spent three years with the Rockets before being released on April 10, 2014. He was then signed by the Bulls on April 14, but never played for the team.

Dragicevic (6-foot-9, 222 pounds) was selected by the Utah Jazz with the 53rd overall pick in the 2008 draft.

---The Orlando Magic officially signed free agent forward Channing Frye. The deal reportedly is a four-year, $32 million contract.

The 6-foot-11, 255-pound Frye played and started in all 82 games last season with the Phoenix Suns, averaging 11.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 1.2 assists in 28.2 minutes per game.

The Magic also acquired two future second-round draft picks (2015, 2016), cash considerations and the contract of forward Anthony Randolph from the Chicago Bulls in exchange for the draft rights to forward Milovan Rakovic. Orlando intends to waive Randolph.

---The Detroit Pistons officially signed free agent guard Jodie Meeks to a multi-year contract. Terms of the agreement were not disclosed, but the deal reportedly is for three years and $19.5 million.

The 6-foot-4, 208-pound guard has career averages of 9.7 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.1 assists and 24.3 minutes in 355 games (194 starts) with the Los Angeles Lakers, Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks. He joins the Pistons after spending the last two seasons with the Lakers where he averaged 11.8 points, 2.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 27.2 minutes.

---San Antonio Spurs forward Matt Bonner signed a one-year, $1.448 million, veteran's minimum deal.

The defending champions are likely to bring back all 14 players on their NBA Finals roster. Only restricted free agent Aron Bynes is unsigned. The Spurs own refusal rights with the option to match any offer sheet another team would extend Bynes.

---Chandler Parsons is officially a Maverick. The restricted free agent forward signed three-year, $46 million offer sheet with the Mavericks on Thursday, and the Houston Rockets declined to match the deal.

Instead, the Rockets will use a large chunk of their cap space -- attained by trading Omer Asik to New Orleans and Jeremy Lin to the Lakers -- to bring in small forward Trevor Ariza.

---USA basketball chairman Jerry Colangelo confirmed the 19-player roster for the national team, headlined by 2012 gold medalists Kevin Durant, James Harden, Kevin Love and Anthony Davis.

The roster for the 2014 USA World Cup Team will be selected from the group and reports to training camp in Las Vegas July 28. DeMar DeRozan (Toronto Raptors) and Chandler Parsons (Dallas Mavericks) were added to the roster this week.

The full roster assembled by Colangelo, who has a 62-1 record since taking over the national team in 2005, includes: Bradley Beal (Washington Wizards); DeMarcus Cousins (Sacramento Kings); Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors); Davis (New Orleans Pelicans); Andre Drummond (Detroit Pistons); Durant (Oklahoma City Thunder); Kenneth Faried (Denver Nuggets); Paul George (Indiana Pacers); Blake Griffin (Los Angeles Clippers); Harden (Houston Rockets); Gordon Hayward (Utah Jazz); Kyrie Irving (Cleveland Cavaliers); Kyle Korver (Atlanta Hawks); Damian Lillard (Portland Trail Blazers); Love (Minnesota Timberwolves); Derrick Rose (Chicago Bulls); and Klay Thompson (Golden State Warriors).

**Udog** · 07-15-2014, 08:48 AM

NHL roundup: Bartowski signs with Bruins

Matt Bartowski avoided salary arbitration with the Boston Bruins, signing a one-year deal worth $1.25 million on Monday.

Bartkowski, 26, tallied 18 assists for the Bruins last season in 64 regular-season games and one assist in eight playoff games. He has 20 assists in 84 career games.

The deal avoids a July 30 arbitration date.

Bartkowski was drafted by the Florida Panthers in the seventh round of the 2008 draft, and came to the Bruins in a 2010 trade that included Dennis Seidenberg.

---The Los Angeles Kings agreed to terms on new contracts for restricted free agent defenseman Brayden McNabb and restricted free agent left winger Andy Andreoff.

The 23-year-old McNabb signed for two years. He is a 6-foot-4, 208-pound native of Davidson, Saskatchewan who has appeared in 37 career NHL regular-season games -- all with the Buffalo Sabres -- over the past three seasons, totaling eight points (one goal, seven assists) and 21 penalty minutes.

The 23-year-old Andreoff signed for one year. The 6-foot-1, 207-pound native of Pickering, Ontario recently wrapped up his second full season in Manchester, collecting 35 points (11 goals, 24 assists), a team-leading 133 penalty minutes in 76 regular-season games.

---Defenseman Dylan Olsen signed a two-year contract with the Florida Panthers.

The Panthers also signed forwards Garrett Wilson and Ryan Martindale to one-year, two-way contracts.

---The Carolina Hurricanes and right winger Justin Shugg agreed to a one-year, two-way contract.

Shugg will make $600,000 in the NHL or $70,000 in the American Hockey League this season.

---Defenseman Julius Honka and the Dallas Stars finalized a three-year entry-level contract.

Financial terms of the deal with Dallas' first-round pick (No. 14) in the 2014 draft were not disclosed.

---The Chicago Blackhawks hired Kevin Dineen, who coached Canada's women's national team to a gold medal at the Sochi Olympics, as an assistant coach.

Dineen was teammates with Blackhawks head coach Joel Quenneville from 1984 to 1990 when both were members of the Hartford Whalers.

---Tony Granato will join Mike Babcock's staff as an assistant coach with the Detroit Red Wings, according to reports.

Granato joined the Pittsburgh Penguins as an assistant coach in 2009 but was fired when Mike Johnston was hired to replace Dan Bylsma as coach on June 25.

Before joining the Penguins, Granato, who turns 50 on July 25, spent seven seasons with the Colorado Avalanche coaching staff, including parts of three seasons as their head coach. He guided the Avalanche to the Stanley Cup playoffs in back-to-back seasons in 2003 and 2004.

**Udog** · 07-15-2014, 08:51 AM

ACC college football betting preview: Florida State best team, worst bet?

The ACC is one of the nation’s premier conferences, and it gets even stronger with the addition of Louisville this year. You would think a conference with 14 teams would be a little top heavy, but that’s not necessarily the case.

Covers Expert Sean Murphy says why you should bet or fade each ACC program and gives his season win total pick for the upcoming college football campaign:

Florida State Seminoles (2013: 14-0 SU, 11-3 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: -350
Season win total: 10.5

Why bet the Seminoles: The two-time defending ACC champions are the odds on favorite to win a third straight title, and for good reason. Even after winning a national title, the sky is still the limit for this program. They’re loaded with returning talent – including Heisman winner QB Jameis Winston - and the rest of the ACC should be at least a step behind.

Why not bet the Seminoles: Will there be any value left? The Noles bandwagon is about as full as it can get after a staggering 11-3 ATS campaign a year ago. They’ll be firmly entrenched on everyone’s radar, meaning we’ll see lofty pointspreads on a weekly basis.

Season win total pick: Over 10.5

Louisville Cardinals (2013: 12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +800
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Cardinals: The winning pedigree is firmly entrenched in this program and it enters the new season with a big chip on its shoulder, as it certainly draws its share of critics. The cupboard is never bare at Louisville and new head coach Bobby Petrino will have his squad motivated.

Why not bet the Cardinals: With a new coaching staff will come some growing pains. Losing do-everything QB Teddy Bridgewater certainly doesn’t help matters either, not to mention the fact that the Cards move from the AAC to the ACC.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Pittsburgh Panthers (2013: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +5,000
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Panthers: The Panthers got some of their swagger back last season and should pick up right where they left off in Year 2 of the Paul Chryst era. Expect hardnosed, physical football week in and week out as the Panthers won’t back down from anyone in the conference.

Why not bet the Panthers: Is there enough talent on board to compete with the big boys? The Panthers are at least a year away from making a big splash. Putting points on the board consistently could be an issue against the conference’s better defenses.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5

North Carolina State Wolfpack (2013: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +6,000
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Wolfpack: Things are looking up for the Wolfpack and they should have an upset or two in them once ACC play begins. Injuries played a big role in their struggles a year ago. But as long as they can stay healthy, they can make a major leap and quite possibly win five or six games.

Why not bet the Wolfpack: Playing in the Atlantic Division will be the biggest detriment to Wolfpack success. There’s also the notion that maybe they don’t have the most durable pieces in place after last year’s injury-riddled campaign. Time will tell whether it was a fluke or reality.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5

Syracuse Orange (2013: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +6,000
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Orange: Most are down on the Orange, even after they’ve reached a Bowl game in three of the last four years. The program will be a little more settled in the second year of the post-Doug Marrone era and another winning ATS mark is well within reach under the guidance of the underrated Scott Shafer.

Why not bet the Orange: There’s a talent gap between the Orange and the majority of the other teams in the ACC. Recruiting has certainly played a role over the years, as Syracuse simply isn’t the most attractive destination for most blue chip recruits. A few standouts will need to carry the load and that might be asking too much.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5

Boston College Eagles (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +5,000
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Eagles: Few were paying much attention, but the Eagles enjoyed a nice bounce-back campaign a year ago and are poised to take another step forward in Steve Addazio’s second year at the helm. How many bettors will be interested in supporting the Eagles without star RB Andre Williams? The lighter the bandwagon, the more value we’ll likely see.

Why not bet the Eagles: It’s going to take some time for the winning culture to truly return to Chestnut Hill. The thinking is that we could see a letdown from the Eagles off a surprisingly strong 2013 season. A difficult schedule will undoubtedly play a significant role.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5

Clemson Tigers (2013: 11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +1,000
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Tigers: If Florida State slips up, Clemson will be right there to take over the ACC throne. The Tigers will once again field an elite squad, thanks to stellar recruiting in recent years. With a number of key pieces moving on to greener pastures, bettors might not be so quick to back the Tigers this year, providing some early season value.

Why not bet the Tigers: QB Tajh Boyd and WR Sammy Watkins won’t be easily replaced. Hopes remain high at the quarterback position, but as with most first-year starters, nothing is assured. The schedule starts tough with September road tests against Florida State and Georgia.

Season win total pick: Over 9.5

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2013: 4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +17,500
Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Demon Deacons: Wake Forest will need to hang its hat on its defense in 2014 and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The Deacons boast one of the most underrated secondaries in the ACC and are more than serviceable up front. If the offense can pack any sort of punch, they’ll be able to improve on last year’s ATS mark.

Why not bet the Demon Deacons: This is still a program that has its work cut out for it personnel wise. Any success this year would be considered a bonus, as the Deacons are probably looking at another two or three years before they can make any sort of splash in an extremely tough conference.

Season win total pick: Under 3.5

Virginia Cavaliers (2013: 2-10 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +5,000
Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Cavaliers: No one is expecting anything from the Cavaliers this season - much like last year when they fell just shy of a .500 mark against the spread. A similar tally is within reach in 2014, meaning there will be spots to back the Hoos. The defense is capable of keeping Virginia from being a complete embarrassment at the very least.

Why not bet the Cavaliers: There’s no question the Cavaliers are going to be an ACC bottom feeder this year, and probably next year as well. If you don’t have a high pain threshold, you’ll probably want to steer clear of a team that won’t put many points on the board on a weekly basis.

Season win total pick: Under 3.5

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2013: 7-6 SU, 5-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +1,500
Season win total: 6.5

Why bet the Yellow Jackets: This is a year for the Yellow Jackets to make a move, as the schedule affords them such an opportunity. Of their first 10 contests, only two will come against Top 30 teams from a year ago. I don’t mind supporting teams that bettors aren’t all that high on and Georgia Tech falls into that category in 2014.

Why not bet the Yellow Jackets: This is a team built on potential, but whether the players on the field can reach that high-water mark remains to be seen. There are still a lot of question marks up front on defense and the ACC is an awfully tough conference to work out issues in that department. Quarterback play has been an issue in recent years and that isn’t likely to change this season.

Season win total pick: Over 6.5

Duke Blue Devils (2013: 10-4 SU, 11-3 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +1,200
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Blue Devils: Duke’s schedule starts rather light, with four very winnable games right off the bat. In fact, it never really reached a fever pitch, meaning the potential is there for the Blue Devils to repeat last year’s 10-win performance. The offense should continue to roll along, with continuity where they need it most.

Why not bet the Blue Devils: The Blue Devils defense will continue to hold them back to a certain extent. Any slip ups by the offense won’t go unpunished, as this unit simply can’t afford to be overworked. A letdown is always a possibility off such an impressive 2013 campaign.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5

North Carolina Tar Heels (2013: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +800
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Tar Heels: If any team has a chip on its shoulder in the ACC, the Tar Heels are it. They got off to a brutal start last season, but won when it mattered most and enter the new campaign with plenty of momentum after crushing Cincinnati in the Belk Bowl. Larry Fedora’s spread offense will be fun to watch, if not one of the nation’s most high-scoring units. Could be solid Over value with UNC.

Why not bet the Tar Heels: North Carolina’s defense remains a weakness and that’s a problem in the ACC. While the offense will be explosive, it isn’t without a few question marks. After an extended run of success, opponents will most definitely gunning for the Tar Heels in 2014.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5

Miami Hurricanes (2013: 9-4 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +350
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Hurricanes: Miami could be a frontrunner for the Coastal Division title as long as everything goes according to plan. After posting a subpar ATS mark last season, there’s reason to believe the Hurricanes will stay a little further beneath the radar and improve on that record. Roster turnover shouldn’t be a big issue with outstanding depth.

Why not bet the Hurricanes: The Hurricanes have seen their win total improve in each of the last three years. Turning that trick for a fourth consecutive season is a tall task to be sure. The quarterback position needs to be settled - never a good thing. Neither is replacing a pair of anchors on the offensive line.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5

Virginia Tech Hokies (2013: 8-5 SU, 4-8-1 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +800
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Hokies: The Hokies have the element of surprise working for them coming off two bad seasons (by Blacksburg standards). Even without a proven quarterback, Virginia Tech is still capable of contending for the Coastal Division title. The defense could be downright nasty and if the Hokies catch a few breaks, they could shake up the ACC.

Why not bet the Hokies: The offense has too many question marks to mention. Logan Thomas had his share of issues, but he was better than anyone the Hokies have to work with heading into the 2014 season. The schedule gets tough in a hurry with a road date at Ohio State in Week 2 and a “tougher than it looks” home matchup against East Carolina the following week.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

**Udog** · 07-15-2014, 08:58 AM

WNBA
Dunkel

Washington at Phoenix
The Mystics head to Phoenix tonight to face a Mercury team that is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 home games. Phoenix is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-10). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.

TUESDAY, JULY 15

Game 651-652: Connecticut at Seattle (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 103.586; Seattle 112.749
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 9; 140
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 3 1/2; 144 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3 1/2); Under

Game 653-654: Los Angeles at Indiana (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 115.937; Indiana 111.332
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 4 1/2; 154
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2; 151 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-2); Over

Game 655-656: Washington at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 111.019; Phoenix 123.391
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 12 1/2; 150
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 10; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-10); Under

WNBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, July 15

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CONNECTICUT (9 - 13) at SEATTLE (9 - 14) - 7/15/2014, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 92-61 ATS (+24.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 4-1 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LOS ANGELES (9 - 11) at INDIANA (10 - 11) - 7/15/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 23-34 ATS (-14.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 14-24 ATS (-12.4 Units) after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 102-136 ATS (-47.6 Units) as an underdog since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 4-0 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 4-0 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (9 - 12) at PHOENIX (16 - 3) - 7/15/2014, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 255-309 ATS (-84.9 Units) in all games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 160-203 ATS (-63.3 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 48-70 ATS (-29.0 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1997.
PHOENIX is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in May, June, or July games this season.
WASHINGTON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
PHOENIX is 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 15+ games after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA

Tuesday, July 15

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Trend Report
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3:00 PM
CONNECTICUT vs. SEATTLE
Connecticut is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Connecticut is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Connecticut

8:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. INDIANA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games
Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
Indiana is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Los Angeles

10:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PHOENIX
Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 11 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing Washington

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Announcement

Tuesday's Trends and Indexes - 7/15 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

Tuesday's Trends and Indexes - 7/15 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

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