Announcement

**Udog** · 06-20-2014, 07:50 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

-- Cubs are 0-5 on the last game of a homestand, the only MLB team without a win on getaway night at home.

– Colorado (3-10), Pittsburgh (2-9) are worst teams in last game of a home series.

– Bronx (10-3), Giants (7-2), Reds (8-3) are best teams in last game of a home series.

– In case you’re wondering, Clay Buchholz holds record for longest no-hitter in terms of time of game, at 3:02. Kershaw’s was 2:58 Tuesday.

– VCU is building a $25M basketball practice facility; that’s what winning games gets you, increased alumni donations to build better facilties, which in turn helps the coach recruit better players.

– Thursday was 30th anniversary of the night Portland drafted Sam Bowie ahead of Michael Jordan. Whoops.

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Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here.........

13) Dodger pitchers tossed no-hitters 24 days apart, shortest span between no-hitters by one team since Johnny VanderMeer’s consecutive no-hitters in 1938, the second of which was the first night game played in Ebbets Field in Brooklyn, against the Dodgers.

12) After Clayton Kershaw struck out the last hitter Wednesday night, LA catcher AJ Ellis placed his helmet/mask on home plate before joining the celebration. Ellis sprained his ankle stepping on Tim Federowicz’ mask during the celebration after Josh Beckett’s no-hitter last month.

11) Cubs moved Kris Bryant, one of their two big prospects, up to AAA this week; he is a power hitting third baseman.

10) Homer Bailey makes $17M a year? Seriously? He should buy his agent’s wife a dozen roses every day, but is contract is still 1,000 times better than Edwin Jackson’s with the Cubs. Giving Jackson an 8-figure salary is unfathomable.

9) If Brock Holt can play catcher, he could be one of those guys who plays all nine positions in one game- he’s already played every one but catcher this season. Not sure what happens to Holt when Shane Victorino gets healthy; does he have to keep hitting .330 to stay in the lineup?

8) Bitcoin replaces Beef O’Brady’s as sponsor of the St Petersburg Bowl at Tropicana Field; there are too many bowl games, to the point where teams with losing records will be playing in them.

7) Drawings of the Atlanta Falcons’ new stadium remind me of the opera house in Sydney you see during the Australian Open every year. Looks like a series of big tents. Braves are getting a new stadium and now the Falcons are, too.

6) Michigan State has only had two basketball coaches since 1976, Jud Heathcoat and Tom Izzo; Pittsburgh Steelers have had three head coaches since 1968.

5) Golfer Trevor Immelman had an albatross (2 on a par-5) on the 13th hole at the Hartford Open, holing out from 246 yards away. An albatross is more rare than a hole-in-one.

4) Rory McIlroy flew to Ireland this week, but his clubs missed the flight, which didn’t make him very happy with the airlines—how do you leave a celebrity golfer’s clubs off the plane? Clubs eventually caught up to him in Ireland.

3) Speaking of golf, having it as an Olympic sport is a bad idea; nothing says amateur sports like McIlroy-Mickelson-Woods-Jason Day in a Final Four for Olympic medals. Golfers should have to carry their own bags in the Olympics.

2) Phoenix Suns have three first round picks in NBA Draft next week; Celtics have two. No word if the Suns are willing to part with one of the draft picks.

1) Very bad news for Kansas big man Joel Embiid, who apparently broke his foot during a recent workout. In a case like this, Embiid should be allowed to go back to Kansas for another year- wouldn’t that be fair? If I’m an NBA team, I look at Embiid, think of Sam Bowie/Greg Oden and I do not pick him. Those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it.

**Udog** · 06-20-2014, 07:52 AM

WNBA
Dunkel

Washington at Minnesota
The Lynx look to bounce back from their 92-79 loss to Phoenix on Wednesday and come into tonight's contest with a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games following a SU defeat. Minnesota is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-8 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.

FRIDAY, JUNE 20

Game 601-602: New York at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 105.143; Atlanta 118.157
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 13; 161
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 8 1/2; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-8 1/2); Over

Game 603-604: Washington at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 109.060; Minnesota 119.861
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 11; 151
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 8 1/2; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-8 1/2); Under

Game 605-606: Indiana at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 106.622; Chicago 112.297
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 5 1/2; 140
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3 1/2); Under

Game 607-608: Tulsa at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 107.771; Phoenix 120.388
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 12 1/2; 166
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 10; 162
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-10); Over

WNBA

Friday, June 20

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Trend Report
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7:30 PM
NEW YORK vs. ATLANTA
New York is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
New York is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Atlanta's last 14 games when playing at home against New York

8:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Washington is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games

8:30 PM
INDIANA vs. CHICAGO
Indiana is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Indiana is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indiana
Chicago is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indiana

10:00 PM
TULSA vs. PHOENIX
Tulsa is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tulsa's last 8 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Phoenix's last 8 games when playing at home against Tulsa
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Phoenix's last 18 games at home

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WNBA

Friday, June 20

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Ladies' Night: Catching up on the WNBA's best bets
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Basketball bettors are still scooping their jaws off the hardwood following the San Antonio Spurs’ somewhat surprising domination of the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals.

Now that the NBA season is over and March Madness is a distant memory, hoop heads have only one option – outside of wagering on those weirdo European leagues. The WNBA is in full stride but if you haven’t paid attention to the action in the “Dub”, we get you caught up on what you missed while you were sleeping:

Doggy Dog World

Underdogs owned the early betting of the WNBA season, going an unreal 15-6 ATS in the first 21 games of the season – a 71 percent ATS rate.

As always, trends like this tend to level out. Underdogs are 35-32 (52.24 percent) as of Wednesday, however, home underdogs continue to be a profitable play with a 13-8 ATS mark (62 percent).

The Tulsa Shock have been the liveliest underdogs in the league. Tulsa is just 4-5 SU but 6-2 ATS, covering the spread as pups in five of those six pointspread paydays.

Over rated

For those who poo-poo the lower-scoring action in the WNBA, the ladies have been exceeding the oddsmakers offensive expectations so far this season.

The league has produced a 38-29 Over/Under record as of Wednesday, paying out Over backers at a 56.72 percent clip. WNBA games are averaging 155.5 total points, with the Phoenix Mercury leading the league at 84.1 points per game. Phoenix, however, is just 5-5 Over/Under.

The top Overs teams include the Atlanta Dream (8-3 O/U), Minnesota Lynx (9-4 O/U), and Connecticut Sun (8-5 O/U).

On the other side of the total, the Washington Mystics (4-8 O/U), New York Liberty (5-7 O/U) and Seattle Storm (6-7 O/U) are the only three teams out of the 12 WNBA franchises staying below the number more often than not.

Best/Worst ATS

The Mercury boast a league-best 8-3 SU and ATS record so far this season. Phoenix is still paced by women’s basketball legend Diana Taurasi (18.6 ppg) but has a tremendous supporting cast, including fellow WNBA veteran Candace Dupree (15.2 ppg) and phenom Brittney Griner (16.5 ppg).

At the bottom of the barrel are the Los Angeles Sparks, who have stumbled to a 3-7 SU and ATS record. Los Angeles has plenty of fire power – ranked fourth in scoring – and featuring All-Star Candace Parker (20.2 ppg), but can’t stop opponents from scoring. The Sparks allow a league-worst 82.7 points per game, which is burning bettors with four straight ATS losses heading into Wednesday’s home game with Tulsa.

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**Udog** · 06-20-2014, 07:52 AM

MLB
Dunkel

NY Mets at Miami
The Mets look to follow up last night's 1-0 win over the Marlins and come into tonight's contest with a 7-1 record in Daisuke Matsuzaka's last 8 starts. New York is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Mets favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, JUNE 20

Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.597; Cubs (Jackson) 15.766
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-135); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115); N/A

Game 953-954: Atlanta at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 16.862; Washington (Strasburg) 15.995
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-175); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+155); Under

Game 955-956: NY Mets at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Matsuzaka) 15.266; Miami (Alvarez) 13.998
Dunkel Line: MY Mets by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Miami (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Under

Game 957-958: Philadelphia at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Burnett) 15.920; St. Louis (Garcia) 17.121
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Under

Game 959-960: Milwaukee at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Estrada) 17.070; Colorado (Bergman) 14.445
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-115); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-105); Under

Game 961-962: San Francisco at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 16.470; Arizona (Collmenter) 14.732
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-105); Over

Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Haren) 15.688; San Diego (Kennedy) 14.107
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: San Diego (-110); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-110); Under

Game 965-966: Baltimore at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Jimenez) 16.951; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 15.749
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Over

Game 967-968: Detroit at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 16.068; Cleveland (Kluber) 17.787
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-130); Under

Game 969-970: Houston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Cosart) 12.737; Tampa Bay (Price) 17.715
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 5; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-180); Over

Game 971-972: Seattle at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 15.803; Kansas City (Shields) 17.257
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-140); Under

Game 973-974: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Noesi) 16.160; Minnesota (Nolasco) 14.577
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+100); Over

Game 975-976: Boston at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Doubront) 16.951; Oakland (Mills) 15.587
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 977-978: Texas at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Saunders) 17.178; LA Angels (Richards) 16.246
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+170); Over

Game 979-980: Toronto at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Hendriks) 16.737; Cincinnati (Latos) 15.285
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+120); Over

**Udog** · 06-20-2014, 07:52 AM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, June 20

Pirates- Cubs
Morton is 3-0, 2.37 in his last three starts.
Jackson is 0-4, 9.00 in his last five starts.

Pirates lost three of their last four games, but won six of last nine on road.
Cubs won eight of their last ten home games.

Four of last five Jackson starts went over the total.

Braves-Nationals
Minor is 0-2, 4.91 in his last five starts.
Strasburg is 3-1, 3.51 in his last four starts.

Braves lost six of their last nne games.
Washington won five of its last six home games.
Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Atlanta games.

Mets-Marlins
Matsuzaka is 2-0, 3.64 in four starts for the Mets.
Miami won last five Alvarez starts (1-0, 1.08).

Mets lost eight of their last ten road games, but won last two.
Marlins lost nine of their last thirteen home games.

Under is 6-2-1 in New York's last nine games.

Phillies-Cardinals
Burnett is 1-3, 6.11 in his last five starts.
Garcia is 2-0, 0.64 in his last couple starts.

Philly won eight of its last ten games.
Cardinals won eight of their last eleven games, but lost last two.

Under is 9-2-1 in last twelve Cardinal games.

Brewers-Rockies
Estrada is 0-2, 7.94 in his last three starts.
Bergman is 0-1, 3.75 in two starts this season.

Milwaukee won seven of its last nine road games.
Rockies lost eight of their last eleven home games.

Last five Estrada starts went over the total.

Giants-Arizona
Lincecum is 1-1, 7.16 in his last three starts.
Collmenter is 0-2, 7.00 in his last three starts.

Giants lost eight of their last nine games.
Arizona lost seven of its last nine games.

Under is 8-3 in Arizona's last eleven home games.

Dodgers-Padres
Haren is 2-3, 5.55 in his last six starts.
Kennedy is 0-2, 5.84 in his last couple starts.

Dodgers won five of their last six games.
San Diego won three of its last four home games.

Last six San Diego games stayed under the total.

Orioles-Bronx
Jimenez is 0-4, 6.21 in his last six starts.
Kuroda is 0-2, 3.44 in his last three starts.

Orioles won six of their last eight road games.
Bronx won its last four home games.

Six of last seven Baltimore road games went over total.

Tigers-Indians
Porcello is 0-2, 5.68 in his last three starts.
Kluber is 0-1, 6.48 in his last three starts.

Tigers lost seven of their last eleven games.
Cleveland won 11 of its last 12 home games.

Six of last eight Kluber starts went over the total.

Astros-Rays
Cosart is 3-1, 4.01 in his last four starts.
Price is 1-3, 4.84 in his last six starts.

Astros lost five of their last six games.
Tampa Bay lost eight of its last twelve home games.

Three of last four Houston games went over total.

Mariners-Royals
Iwakuma is 2-1, 1.59 in his last three starts.
Kansas City won Shields' last eight starts (2-0, 3.00 in last two).

Mariners lost seven of their last ten games.
Kansas City won ten of its eleven games.

Eight of last ten Shields starts went over the total; 11 of Seattle's last 12 games stayed under the total.

White Sox-Twins
Noesi is 1-1, 8.68 in his last two starts.
Nolasco is 2-2, 5.88 in his last six starts.

White Sox lost six of their last eight road games.
Minnesota lost five of its last six games.

Nine of last twelve White Sox games went over total.

Red Sox-A's
Doubront was 1-2, 6.66 in his last five starts before going on DL.
Mills is 3-3, 7.76 in 10 MLB starts, last of which was in 2012. He was 4-2 in 12 AAA starts this season, with a 1.56 ERA. A's acquired him on Tuesday to replaced the injured Pomeranz.

Red Sox lost eight of their last ten road games.
Oakland won eight of its last ten home games.

Under is 10-1-1 in last twelve Boston games.

Rangers-Angels
Saunders is 0-1, 3.64 in his last three starts.
Richards is 2-0, 0.43 in his last three starts.

Texas lost three of its last four games.
Angels lost five of last seven games, but are 11-3 in last 14 at home.

Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Richards starts.

Blue Jays-Reds
Hendriks was 1-0, 2.31 in two spot starts last month.
Latos threw six shutout innings in his first '14 start Sunday.

Toronto lost four of its last five games.
Reds won six of their last eight games.

Under is 4-0-1 in last five Cincinnati home games.

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Morton 2-14; Jackson 6-14
-- Minor 2-9; Strasburg 4-15 (0 of last 7)
-- Matsuzaka 1-4; Alvarez 4-14 (0 of last 5)
-- Burnett 5-15 (4 of last 7); Garcia 1-6
-- Estrada 4-13; Bergman 1-2
-- Lincecum 6-14; Collmenter 5-12
-- Haren 6-14; Kennedy 4-15

-- Jimenez 4-14 (0 of last 5); Kuroda 5-14
-- Porcello 6-13; Kluber 4-15
-- Cosart 6-14; Price 7-15 (5 of last 7)
-- Iwakuma 1-9; Shields 3-15
-- Noesi 3-9; Nolasco 4-14 (4 of last 7)
-- Doubront 2-9; Mills 0-0
-- Saunders 1-5; Richards 3-14

-- Hendriks 0-2; Latos 0-1

**Udog** · 06-20-2014, 07:53 AM

MLB

Friday, June 20

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Trend Report
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4:05 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CHI CUBS
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

7:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. NY YANKEES
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
NY Yankees are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home

7:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

7:05 PM
DETROIT vs. CLEVELAND
Detroit is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home

7:10 PM
HOUSTON vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing Houston

7:10 PM
NY METS vs. MIAMI
NY Mets are 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Mets's last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Mets

7:10 PM
TORONTO vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Toronto is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home

8:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games
Minnesota is 3-7 SU in their last 10 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games at home

8:10 PM
SEATTLE vs. KANSAS CITY
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home

8:15 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

8:40 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. COLORADO
Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Colorado is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games
Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee

9:40 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing San Francisco

10:05 PM
TEXAS vs. LA ANGELS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 7 games on the road
LA Angels are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games
LA Angels are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing Texas

10:05 PM
BOSTON vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Boston is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Boston

10:10 PM
LA DODGERS vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games
LA Dodgers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
San Diego is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games

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**Udog** · 06-20-2014, 07:53 AM

MLB

Friday, June 20

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How to combat baseball betting fatigue
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There comes a time in every baseball season where I hit a wall. Baseball season is eight months long and there are almost 5,000 games to watch, read about, discuss and most importantly bet on. My baseball consumption includes betting on games, watching in sportsbooks and home, researching player and team data and trends and listening to games on the radio.

Baseball fatigue sets in a couple times a year and I have to re-evaluate my gambling strategy. I have a fairly short attention span and after a while statistics and daily trends all become mush. I’m not going to stop consuming baseball but it’s smart for me to step back and look at things a little differently when it comes to betting.

This is usually brought on by a rough stretch of betting. This kind of evaluation period isn’t available for most other sports. When I hit a rough patch during the football season there’s only a day or so to lick my wounds and reset. The incredibly long season in baseball is so long that it allows for a lot of bets to be made but also some time to step back and slow things down when necessary.

It’s strange that I hit a bad stretch in betting baseball around the same time every year but I do. This usually happens about 1/3rd of the way through the season and again about 2/3rds of the way through the season. One thing I learned from playing poker much of my life is to slow my roll when I’m on tilt. In poker I might play much tighter or just fold a couple hands after losing a few big hands in a row. In baseball betting I step back and look at the research I use before I place bets.

Before reassessing the data I take a sports holiday for a day or two. That’s right, no sports of any kind for 24 to 48 hours. This year my break took me away from all sports on outlets like ESPN, Deadspin and Covers and brought me to Netflix where I plowed through the new season of “Orange Is The New Black”. I think that did it. I may have missed a prime opportunity to bet against Verlander but I’m refreshed and ready to dive into data, trends, podcasts and websites again.

Covers has a great tool to use to get a macro view of baseball gambling trends over certain periods of time.
You can compare full game trends for straight up winners and losers, against the spread winners and losers and under/over totals. The best part of this information is that you can sort it by various time frames.

I don’t make run line bets so I can narrow my focus to my betting preferences. After clearing my head I’ve compared year long straight up and over/under total trends to the past month and week just to see how things have been overall. I use a lot of player and team specific trends and stats on a daily basis so it’s nice to step back and look at overall results. Since most trends normalize to an average you can find trends that have been running hot or cold lately that might regress back to their overall season averages.

My individual player research preferences won’t change much. I will always like pitchers with a high ground ball percentage and low HR per fly ball rate. Fangraphs provides great individual player data that I use fairly often when I’m intelligent about my baseball betting. Unfortunately when fatigue sets I will become lazy and rely on whatever I remember. This is bad. I don’t have a photographic memory and between all of the baseball media I consume I may have some recency bias and fail to remember that away teams are winning almost 49% of their games over the past month or that Jeff Samardzija has also hit a rough patch.

Now that all is clear it's back to the grind. Onward and Upward!

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**Udog** · 06-20-2014, 07:54 AM

MLB

Friday, June 20

Top 10 money pitcher on mound Friday

If you've been backing the Kansas City Royals with James Shields on the hill this season, you already know just how good of a play he's been. As of Thursday, Shields is the ninth-best money pitcher in baseball at +$634.

Shields and the red-hot Royals host the Seattle Mariners Friday. KC is currently -117 faves for the matchup.

Indians putting W's on the board behind this pitcher

The Cleveland Indians have been dominant as of late with Corey Kluber on the mound, going 7-1 in his last eight starts. Kluber will take the hill Friday against the Detroit Tigers.

Rick Porcello gets the start for the Tigers. The Tribe are currently -125 faves.

Jimenez, Orioles giving backers headaches as of late

The Baltimore Orioles are struggling mightily with Ubaldo Jimenez on the hill, going just 1-6 in his last seven starts. That's a trend worth paying attention to when Jimenez gets the ball Friday versus the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium.

New York is currently -123 faves for the AL East matchup.

This pitcher has been a risky play this season

San Diego Padres pitcher Ian Kennedy has been an poor play this season, bad enough to rank him in the bottom 20 money pitchers in baseball at $-508. Kennedy and the Padres face off against Dan Haren and their interstate rival Los Angeles Dodgers Friday at PETCO Park.

San Diego is currently -106 faves.

**Udog** · 06-20-2014, 08:47 AM

MLB

Friday, June 20

One trend had a huge night on the diamond

Three shutouts highlighted what was a low scoring night in Major League Baseball Thursday, meaning those betting on unders went home happy.

Teams went an incredible 1-11 over/under yesterday, coming in at a shockingly high 91.67 success rate. Unders are hitting just under 50 percent of the time so far this season.

Boston rotation gets reinforcements

The Boston Red Sox may be having trouble scoring runs, but their pitching looks dominant, and it could get even better soon.

Left-hander Felix Doubrant will be activated from the disabled list Friday night, when he will start against the A's. He missed the past month due to a strained left shoulder.

Right-hander Clay Buchholz, out with a hyperextended left knee, pitched six shutout innings for Triple-A Pawtucket in his second rehab start Thursday afternoon and flew to the Bay Area after the game to rejoin his teammates. Buchholz pitched six shutout innings, allowing two hits and two walks while striking out five.

Red Sox manager John Farrell said everything points to Buchholz making his next start in the major leagues, although a date is not yet scheduled.

Braves' Floyd breaks elbow in win over Nats

One pop turned Gavin Floyd's night from glorious to gut-wrenching.

The Atlanta right-hander, having battled back from Tommy John surgery to play an important role in the Braves' rotation, saw all the positive vibes from a dominant start wiped out Thursday. After the first pitch of the seventh inning, he called the trainer out to the mound, flexed his elbow and had to leave the game.

X-rays revealed that Floyd fractured his olecranon, a bone at the end of the elbow, putting a damper on the Braves' 3-0 triumph over the Washington Nationals.

**Udog** · 06-20-2014, 10:27 AM

MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, June 20

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PITTSBURGH (35 - 37) at CHICAGO CUBS (30 - 40) - 4:05 PM
CHARLIE MORTON (R) vs. EDWIN JACKSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 132-108 (+19.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 27-16 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in June games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 132-108 (+19.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 110-91 (+17.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 157-238 (-47.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 46-65 (-19.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 142-186 (-63.1 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 38-72 (-21.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 44-70 (-21.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 46-65 (-19.5 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 66-110 (-35.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 32-63 (-27.8 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 666-668 (-158.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
JACKSON is 14-31 (-14.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
JACKSON is 10-25 (-14.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
JACKSON is 9-24 (-15.0 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
JACKSON is 14-31 (-14.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
JACKSON is 12-25 (-15.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 7-3 (+2.7 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.2 Units)

CHARLIE MORTON vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
MORTON is 3-4 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 4.32 and a WHIP of 1.335.
His team's record is 6-6 (+0.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-6. (-1.6 units)

EDWIN JACKSON vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
JACKSON is 6-3 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 3.82 and a WHIP of 1.314.
His team's record is 6-7 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-6. (-0.6 units)

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ATLANTA (37 - 35) at WASHINGTON (37 - 34) - 7:05 PM
MIKE MINOR (L) vs. STEPHEN STRASBURG (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 31-27 (+21.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 since 1997.
ATLANTA is 34-19 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 52-35 (+15.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 41-55 (-19.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 6-1 (+6.6 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)

MIKE MINOR vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
MINOR is 3-2 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 4.96 and a WHIP of 1.566.
His team's record is 4-5 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-4. (+0.9 units)

STEPHEN STRASBURG vs. ATLANTA since 1997
STRASBURG is 3-5 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.381.
His team's record is 5-8 (-5.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-6. (+0.0 units)

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NY METS (33 - 40) at MIAMI (36 - 36) - 7:10 PM
DAISUKE MATSUZAKA (R) vs. HENDERSON ALVAREZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY METS are 58-60 (+18.2 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 58-60 (+18.2 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-3 (+1.0 Units) against NY METS this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.0 Units)

DAISUKE MATSUZAKA vs. MIAMI since 1997
MATSUZAKA is 1-0 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 3.65 and a WHIP of 0.649.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

HENDERSON ALVAREZ vs. NY METS since 1997
ALVAREZ is 3-1 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 2.62 and a WHIP of 1.078.
His team's record is 3-2 (+0.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.2 units)

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PHILADELPHIA (33 - 38) at ST LOUIS (39 - 34) - 8:15 PM
A.J. BURNETT (R) vs. JAIME GARCIA (L)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 187-208 (-40.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BURNETT is 8-29 (-18.4 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 since 1997. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 84-118 (-40.8 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 30-41 (-20.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday since 1997. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 69-98 (-34.5 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 54-84 (-33.4 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 38-59 (-26.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 0-6 (-8.2 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 115-70 (+25.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 71-35 (+27.7 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 119-102 (+26.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Friday since 1997.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-3 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GARCIA is 22-31 (-22.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 (+1.6 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

A.J. BURNETT vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
BURNETT is 8-7 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.63 and a WHIP of 1.364.
His team's record is 9-9 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 10-8. (+1.6 units)

JAIME GARCIA vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
GARCIA is 2-3 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 2.86 and a WHIP of 1.205.
His team's record is 4-3 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-6. (-5.8 units)

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MILWAUKEE (44 - 30) at COLORADO (34 - 38) - 8:40 PM
MARCO ESTRADA (R) vs. CHRISTIAN BERGMAN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 23-14 (+12.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 33-22 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 44-30 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 11-4 (+8.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 this season.
MILWAUKEE is 24-15 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 44-30 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
MILWAUKEE is 29-19 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 90-85 (+9.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 36-28 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MARCO ESTRADA vs. COLORADO since 1997
ESTRADA is 0-0 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.100.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.1 units)

CHRISTIAN BERGMAN vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
No recent starts.

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SAN FRANCISCO (43 - 29) at ARIZONA (31 - 45) - 9:40 PM
TIM LINCECUM (R) vs. JOSH COLLMENTER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-13 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 46-59 (-28.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
LINCECUM is 5-16 (-13.2 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 43-29 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 20-14 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 201-180 (+36.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 107-75 (+25.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 43-29 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 70-60 (+16.9 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 521-512 (+50.4 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 54-42 (+18.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 31-45 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 13-25 (-15.6 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
ARIZONA is 31-45 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ARIZONA is 20-32 (-11.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ARIZONA is 11-20 (-12.6 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
ARIZONA is 46-54 (-23.2 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-3 (+0.7 Units) against ARIZONA this season
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+5.0 Units)

TIM LINCECUM vs. ARIZONA since 1997
LINCECUM is 8-9 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 3.88 and a WHIP of 1.207.
His team's record is 12-13 (-5.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 11-14. (-5.0 units)

JOSH COLLMENTER vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
COLLMENTER is 2-1 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 5.85 and a WHIP of 1.350.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+2.1 units)

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LA DODGERS (40 - 34) at SAN DIEGO (31 - 42) - 10:10 PM
DAN HAREN (R) vs. IAN KENNEDY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 17-22 (-13.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
HAREN is 31-43 (-27.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HAREN is 58-74 (-38.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
HAREN is 30-43 (-28.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HAREN is 21-29 (-18.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HAREN is 24-32 (-20.8 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HAREN is 10-18 (-14.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 52-37 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 39-19 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 31-42 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 19-30 (-13.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
SAN DIEGO is 31-42 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN DIEGO is 22-36 (-16.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
KENNEDY is 2-8 (-8.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season. (Team's Record)
KENNEDY is 4-13 (-9.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KENNEDY is 7-17 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KENNEDY is 6-16 (-11.5 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 2-1 (+0.9 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.0 Units)

DAN HAREN vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
HAREN is 6-4 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 3.77 and a WHIP of 1.188.
His team's record is 10-6 (+2.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-6. (+2.6 units)

IAN KENNEDY vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
KENNEDY is 5-5 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.21 and a WHIP of 1.252.
His team's record is 6-6 (+0.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-4. (+2.3 units)

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BALTIMORE (37 - 34) at NY YANKEES (38 - 33) - 7:05 PM
UBALDO JIMENEZ (R) vs. HIROKI KURODA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
JIMENEZ is 36-48 (-19.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997. (Team's Record)
JIMENEZ is 2-11 (-9.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
BALTIMORE is 219-183 (+44.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 90-72 (+19.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 22-17 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
BALTIMORE is 32-14 (+20.6 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 20-12 (+10.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
BALTIMORE is 197-158 (+42.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 149-125 (+29.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 155-126 (+36.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 115-98 (+34.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
KURODA is 11-21 (-12.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-1 (+1.6 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.9 Units)

UBALDO JIMENEZ vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
JIMENEZ is 1-4 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 6.67 and a WHIP of 1.778.
His team's record is 1-4 (-3.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-1. (+2.9 units)

HIROKI KURODA vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
KURODA is 3-3 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 0.945.
His team's record is 4-4 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-0. (+7.0 units)

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DETROIT (37 - 32) at CLEVELAND (37 - 36) - 7:05 PM
RICK PORCELLO (R) vs. COREY KLUBER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 135-107 (-20.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 133-200 (-51.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997.
DETROIT is 6-11 (-9.4 Units) against the money line in June games this season.
DETROIT is 131-104 (-21.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 74-61 (-20.5 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 129-107 (+23.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 74-43 (+24.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 123-101 (+21.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 48-27 (+18.4 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 84-71 (+12.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 76-52 (+20.3 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
PORCELLO is 30-14 (+15.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 4-1 (+3.8 Units) against DETROIT this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

RICK PORCELLO vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
PORCELLO is 8-3 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 3.59 and a WHIP of 1.287.
His team's record is 12-7 (+3.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-12. (-5.6 units)

COREY KLUBER vs. DETROIT since 1997
KLUBER is 1-3 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.64 and a WHIP of 1.477.
His team's record is 3-4 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-3. (+0.7 units)

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HOUSTON (32 - 42) at TAMPA BAY (29 - 45) - 7:10 PM
JARRED COSART (R) vs. DAVID PRICE (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 44-89 (-37.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less since 1997.
TAMPA BAY is 29-45 (-27.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 16-22 (-15.4 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 6-12 (-10.9 Units) against the money line in June games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 16-22 (-15.4 Units) against the money line in games played in a dome this season.
TAMPA BAY is 20-28 (-15.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 16-25 (-18.5 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf this season.
TAMPA BAY is 23-30 (-15.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 8-17 (-14.2 Units) against the money line after shutting out their opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PRICE is 7-11 (-11.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
PRICE is 5-9 (-10.6 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-1 (+1.6 Units) against HOUSTON this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.8 Units)

JARRED COSART vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
COSART is 2-0 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 2-0 (+3.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.1 units)

DAVID PRICE vs. HOUSTON since 1997
PRICE is 3-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 3.10 and a WHIP of 0.862.
His team's record is 3-1 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

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SEATTLE (37 - 36) at KANSAS CITY (39 - 33) - 8:10 PM
HISASHI IWAKUMA (R) vs. JAMES SHIELDS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 125-109 (+7.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 13-4 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in June games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 24-14 (+10.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SHIELDS is 32-17 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 19-7 (+13.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 9-0 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in June games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 40-23 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 17-7 (+10.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SEATTLE is 16-10 (+9.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
IWAKUMA is 34-24 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
IWAKUMA is 33-23 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-2 (-0.1 Units) against SEATTLE this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)

HISASHI IWAKUMA vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
IWAKUMA is 2-0 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.563.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.2 units)

JAMES SHIELDS vs. SEATTLE since 1997
SHIELDS is 4-4 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 3.83 and a WHIP of 1.164.
His team's record is 8-5 (+1.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-4. (+4.4 units)

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CHI WHITE SOX (35 - 38) at MINNESOTA (33 - 38) - 8:10 PM
HECTOR NOESI (R) vs. RICKY NOLASCO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHI WHITE SOX are 98-137 (-26.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 10-26 (-18.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 96-132 (-24.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 50-84 (-27.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 41-57 (-18.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 46-40 (+15.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 25-22 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 507-530 (+37.8 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
NOESI is 6-0 (+8.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MINNESOTA is 79-116 (-32.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-23 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Friday over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 79-116 (-32.1 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-2 (+0.3 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

HECTOR NOESI vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
NOESI is 1-0 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

RICKY NOLASCO vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
NOLASCO is 0-2 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 6.63 and a WHIP of 1.579.
His team's record is 0-3 (-3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

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BOSTON (34 - 39) at OAKLAND (45 - 28) - 10:05 PM
FELIX DOUBRONT (L) vs. BRAD MILLS (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-2 (+0.0 Units) against BOSTON this season
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.0 Units)

FELIX DOUBRONT vs. OAKLAND since 1997
DOUBRONT is 1-2 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 8.56 and a WHIP of 1.756.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.4 units)

BRAD MILLS vs. BOSTON since 1997
MILLS is 0-0 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 8.31 and a WHIP of 2.079.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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TEXAS (35 - 37) at LA ANGELS (38 - 33) - 10:05 PM
JOE SAUNDERS (L) vs. GARRETT RICHARDS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA ANGELS are 22-8 (+12.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
LA ANGELS are 263-195 (+47.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday since 1997.
TEXAS is 69-37 (+23.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 60-48 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 11-5 (+8.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss this season.
TEXAS is 12-6 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA ANGELS are 116-117 (-21.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 10-14 (-16.2 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -175 to -200 over the last 3 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 45-62 (-31.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 108-115 (-28.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 82-87 (-22.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 54-61 (-16.8 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 2-1 (+1.2 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.1 Units)

JOE SAUNDERS vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
SAUNDERS is 1-3 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 2.89 and a WHIP of 1.179.
His team's record is 1-3 (-1.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.0 units)

GARRETT RICHARDS vs. TEXAS since 1997
RICHARDS is 2-1 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 4.15 and a WHIP of 1.413.
His team's record is 2-5 (-2.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-5. (-4.8 units)

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TORONTO (41 - 33) at CINCINNATI (35 - 36) - 7:10 PM
LIAM HENDRIKS (R) vs. MAT LATOS (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

LIAM HENDRIKS vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
No recent starts.

MAT LATOS vs. TORONTO since 1997
LATOS is 1-0 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 0.750.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.1 units)

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**Udog** · 06-20-2014, 10:32 AM

WNBA
Long Sheet

Friday, June 20

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NEW YORK (3 - 9) at ATLANTA (8 - 3) - 6/20/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 33-48 ATS (-19.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game this season.
ATLANTA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in June games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games in May, June, or July games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) on Friday over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 13-0 ATS (+13.0 Units) in home games after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-4 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-4 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (5 - 7) at MINNESOTA (9 - 4) - 6/20/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 250-305 ATS (-85.5 Units) in all games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 156-201 ATS (-65.1 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 151-192 ATS (-60.2 Units) after a division game since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 69-95 ATS (-35.5 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (5 - 5) at CHICAGO (6 - 5) - 6/20/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 96-134 ATS (-51.4 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
INDIANA is 36-57 ATS (-26.7 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 9-3 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 10-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TULSA (4 - 6) at PHOENIX (8 - 3) - 6/20/2014, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULSA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
TULSA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 34-49 ATS (-19.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 22-35 ATS (-16.5 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in home games after allowing 75 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULSA is 6-3 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 7-3 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 06-20-2014, 11:34 AM

MLB
Short Sheet

Friday, June 20

Pittsburgh at Chicago, 4:05 ET
Morton: PITTSBURGH 18-6 after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings
Jackson: 15-28 TSR when the money line is +125 to -125

Atlanta at Washington, 7:05 ET
Minor: ATLANTA 24-7 off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog
Strasburg: WASHINGTON 25-34 after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less

NY Mets at Miami, 7:10 ET
Matsuzaka: NY METS 1-13 after allowing one run or less in a win over a division rival
Alvarez: MIAMI 21-12 after 2 or more consecutive home games

Philadelphia at St Louis, 8:15 ET
Burnett: PHILADELPHIA 11-4 after 3 straight games where they committed no errors
Garcia: ST LOUIS 10-18 after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs

Milwaukee at Colorado, 8:40 ET
Estrada: 10-4 TSR as an underdog of +100 to +15
Bergman: COLORADO 40-59 at home when the money line is +125 to -125

San Francisco at Arizona, 9:40 ET
Lincecum: 18-9 TSR when the money line is +125 to -125
Collmenter: ARIZONA 8-16 as a favorite

LA Dodgers at San Diego, 10:10 ET
Haren: LA DODGERS 14-3 in road games after allowing one run or less in a win over a division rival
Kennedy: 6-16 TSR after a win

Baltimore at NY Yankees, 7:05 ET
Jimenez: BALTIMORE 22-33 after 2 or more consecutive wins
Kuroda: NY YANKEES 60-40 UNDER when the money line is -100 to -150

Detroit at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
Porcello: 37-18 TSR when the total is 7 to 8.5
Kluber: 19-7 OVER when the money line is +125 to -125

Houston at Tampa Bay, 7:10 ET
Cosart: HOUSTON 11-7 after a loss by 4 runs or more
Price: 7-11 TSR when the total is 7 or less

Seattle at Kansas City, 8:10 ET
Iwakuma: SEATTLE 19-7 UNDER after allowing 4 runs or less 4 straight games
Shields: 21-7 TSR when the money line is -100 to -150

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota, 8:10 ET
Noesi: CHI WHITE SOX 50-84 after a loss
Nolasco: MINNESOTA 15-9 after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games

Boston at Oakland, 10:05 ET
Doubront: n/a
Mills: n/a

Texas at LA Angels, 10:05 ET
Saunders: TEXAS 16-8 OVER on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5
Richards: LA ANGELS 33-18 OVER after a loss by 2 runs or less

Toronto at Cincinnati, 7:10 ET
Hendriks: n/a
Latos: n/a

**Udog** · 06-20-2014, 11:38 AM

MLB

Friday, June 20

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Friday's MLB betting cheat sheet: McCarthy burning bettors bad
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Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for the weekend's major league action:

Under Struck

Under bettors were handsomely rewarded Thursday with the most emphatic result of the season, as teams combined to go 1-11 O/U. Only one team scored more than five runs - the New York Yankees (-102, O 9), who fended off Toronto 6-4 in the lone over result of the day.

Minor Issue

Atlanta Braves lefthander Mike Minor enters Friday's game against Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals at +157 - his longest odds since June 18, 2012. Minor is 0-3 against the moneyline in three career starts as an underdog of +150 or greater.

McCarthy Era a Bad One

Arizona starter Brandon McCarthy will look to reverse a horrible trend Saturday as he and the Diamondbacks welcome the San Francisco Giants. McCarthy enters the weekend ranked last in the majors in value ($-1,252), with Arizona going a woeful 2-13 in his starts so far this season.

Tanaka Means Quality

New York Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka has an impressive streak going as he prepares to face the visiting Baltimore Orioles on Sunday. Tanaka has opened his career with 14 consecutive quality starts, racking up five double-digit strikeout efforts over that span.

Pitching Notes

* Kansas City ace James Shields hopes his teammates will continue providing plenty of run support Friday against visiting Seattle (+108, 7). Kansas City has scored six or more runs in eight of his last 11 starts, guiding him to a 10-1 mark against the moneyline and a 9-2 O/U record over that span.

* Chicago White Sox righty Andre Rienzo was once the highest-value starter in baseball, but will be looking to halt a personal four-game losing skid Saturday against host Minnesota. Rienzo has been an underdog in all 10 of his starts to date, and is 6-4 against the moneyline in those games.

* Detroit Tigers fireballer Max Scherzer will look to bounce back from his worst start of the season Sunday as he squares off against host Cleveland. Scherzer, who surrendered 10 runs over 4 1/3 innings last time out, is 8-4 with a 4.75 ERA in 16 career starts versus the Indians.

Hitting Notes

* Cleveland outfielder Nick Swisher hit a game-winning grand slam Thursday, halting a 2-for-24 slump during which he struck out 10 times. The Indians are 4-1 SU and 3-2 O/U in games in which Swisher goes deep entering Friday's tilt with the Tigers (+115, 8.5).

* Don't expect a home run barrage with St. Louis ace Adam Wainwright on the mound against Philadelphia Saturday. Members of the Phillies roster have combined for zero home runs in 131 career at-bats against Wainwright, striking out 32 times in the process.

* Sunday will feature a marquee pitcher-batter matchup as Texas ace Yu Darvish faces Mike Trout and the Los Angeles Angels. Trout has gotten the better of Darvish to date, batting .290 with four home runs in 31 career at-bats.

Totals Streak

San Diego Padres (0-5-1 O/U): Sound familiar? The Padres continue to confound oddsmakers, racking up six consecutive games in which they either scored or allowed one or fewer runs. San Diego is far and away the strongest Under bet in the league to date at 23-46-4 O/U.

Prop of the Day

Bettors may want to consider taking the Houston Astros to score first against Tampa Bay, a prop that pays -110. The Rays are the worst first-inning team in baseball, scoring just 22 times while batting a paltry .194.

Injury Notes

* Atlanta Braves hurler Gavin Floyd suffered a fractured elbow Thursday night and is out indefinitely. Floyd was solid in nine starts in his first season with the Braves, going 2-2 with a 2.65 ERA in nine starts; the Braves were 5-4 SU and 3-6 O/U in those contests.

* Boston Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz (knee) is expected to rejoin the major-league rotation sometime next week. Buchholz is 2-4 with a 7.03 ERA in 10 starts with the Red Sox, who are 4-6 SU and 6-3-1 O/U in those outings.

* Seattle Mariners DH Corey Hart (hamstring) will start a minor-league rehab assignment this weekend. Hart has been out since mid-May, with the Mariners going 16-14 SU, 8-20-2 O/U and earning 290 units in his absence.

Weather Watch

* Wind at Wrigley Field will blow in from center field at 8 mph for Friday afternoon's tilt between the host Cubs (+115) and Pittsburgh Pirates. Teams combined to score 7.7 runs with two homers in 10 games under similar conditions in 2013, down slightly from the stadium averages.

* Fans at Kauffman Stadium on Saturday afternoon will be greeted by wind blowing out to left field at 8 mph. Only one Royals home game last season featured wind blowing out to left - and it resulted in a 1-0 Kansas City victory.

* Busch Stadium is expected to see wind blowing out to center field at 6 mph for Sunday's game between host St. Louis and Philadelphia. The Cardinals went 7-2 SU while averaging 6.22 runs in nine games under similar conditions a season ago.

Umpire Note of the Day

Over is 16-5 in umpire Adrian Johnson's last 21 games calling balls and strikes. Johnson will be behind home plate for Friday's game between the Cardinals (-160, 7.5) and Phillies.

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**Udog** · 06-20-2014, 05:27 PM

MLB

Friday, June 20

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MLB Weekday Series – Five Key Takeaways
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It is time to again break down the MLB weekday series from Point Blank range, isolating the key issues that can place you far ahead of the game in the days ahead.

Diamondbacks – Baseball’s (Brandon) McCarthyism

There is often mention on these pages to Baseball’s “geometry”, those idiosyncratic angles at which balls travel that make determinations of merit through box scores a challenge. A screaming line drive to the warning track is an out for posterity, Pitcher beating Batter, while a broken bat blooper that barely makes its way to the OF grass is a hit, Batter beating Pitcher. And so forth. The key to successfully handicapping the sport is to understand the impact those vagaries have on statistics, and to not only develop the patience for them to gradually even themselves out, but to use the some of the advanced metrics to help to judge when the bounces are out of balance. There is money to be made in anticipating corrections, vs. a betting market that has historically been extremely linear in its behaviors, and likely always will be.

Which is a long-winded way of setting up McCarthy, after a span of 15 starts into the 2014 campaign that truly has been unique. Sometimes Baseball can be awfully cruel to its own.

McCarthy’s career has been an injury-plagued run of mediocrity. But after an arduous off-season workout regimen he was determined to turn things around with Arizona this season, and some of the results have been rather dramatic. With an increase of two MPH at the upper end of his velocity his K’s-per-9 are way up, from a career 6.1 to the current 7.6, but it has not come at the expense of control – BB-per-9 are down from 2.3 to 1.7, rating #13 (of the 99 pitchers with enough IP to qualify), with his K-to-BB rate of 4.6 at #12. And after posting a career-best rate of 48.2 percent ground-balls in 2013, he has taken that all the way to 55.5 this season, rating #8. It would seem to be a rather ideal package – strikeouts, ground-balls and control are a ticket to success from MLB mounds. And if we use the advanced metric of the xFIP tables, McCarthy has been the #8 pitcher in the Majors this season, a terrific 2.90. Or try SIERRA, which pegs him #11 at 3.02.

So how would you have done if you wagered on that desired performance bundle over 15 starts? You would have gone 2-13, with McCarthy’s personal bottom line at 1-9/5.18. And that’s Baseball.

How has it happened? It is one thing for a pitcher to have a run of ill fortune in one of the categories that can be tied to randomness, but McCarthy has had it happen across the board. First has been a lack of run support. The Diamondbacks have scored only 39 runs in those 15 games; they reached that count in Chase Anderson’s first four starts. His BABIP is .331, with only six pitchers faring worse, and far above the MLB average of .294. When runners have reached base they have scored often – his LOB% of 65.4 is well below the 73.1 MLB average. And perhaps most damaging of all is a 22.7 percent rate of HR/FB. No one else is above 18.7, and the league is at its customary 10.0.

Are the BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB counts a McCarthy flaw? Consider that his career in the former is .293; for LOB% it is 70.5; and his HR/FB rate is at 10.2. Since 2005 he has generally worked around the league average for those categories, but this season has been a disaster across the board.

Now the magic question – is there value to be found backing McCarthy going forward? It is not an easy answer. It is difficult to recall anyone throwing as many good pitches as he has with such poor outcomes, but there is also a confidence issue that comes into play, both for him and the struggling Diamondbacks behind him. When Baseball gets stretched to such an extreme, there are rarely easy answers.

Rangers – Yu Darvish flunks the A’s

As mentioned in the McCarthy take, the overall Baseball marketplace tends to favor straight lines extending, calling for various momentums to continue. Some of the sharper participants take a different tract, with regression portfolios when particular patterns become too extreme, not only taking advantage of the way the sport corrects itself, but also those market biases. That is a big part of the presentations on these pages, looking to find value by isolating performances that are stretched beyond the normal market vision.

One of those particular aspects is Pitcher vs. Team. With as many players as it takes to fill out a lineup, and the balancing act that usually entails, there are not many Pitcher vs. Team matchups that should call for long-term dominance, and when they range too far from the abilities of the players involved, they are more likely to regress than continue (as always, short samples allow for geometry to play too big of a role). But sometimes there is a catch, when a genuine logic is found in a matchup, and that takes us to the latest Darvish failure vs. Oakland.

That 10-6 loss in Oakland on Tuesday, when Darvish labored over five IP, drops the Texas ace to a well-publicized 1-8/4.94 against the A’s, including an 0-3/7.59 from that mound. Should a guy that is 35-13/2.93 against all other teams ever fall into that kind of rut vs. a particular group? Ordinarily, no, but this time there should be not be an anticipation of correction when the game is being played in the Bay area.

Yes, there has been some luck involved. A 4.94 does not equate to 1-8, but that is what can happen when the offense only scores 22 runs in the 10 starts that Darvish has had vs. the A’s. Two of the defeats came by 1-0 counts. But let some of the genuine logic take hold – the Oakland offense has handled him well because of an extreme patience at the plate, and as it continues, there are signs of frustration showing from one of the best performers in the sport. When a history vs. a team begins to get inside the head of a pitcher, it can become a prime handicapping factor, given what confidence means when toeing the rubber.

Darvish has worked 21 1/3 IP at Oakland, issuing 21 BB. That is not Baseball geometry; it is something of merit. Over 13 starts this season he has only topped 19.0 PPI three times, and they happen to be the three outings vs. the A’s. In the two games at Oakland he has needed 215 pitches to slog through 11 frames, with nine BB in the process. That Oakland patience should not come as news – the A’s not only lead the Majors in BB, but it is by a wide margin, drawing 12.8 percent more than anyone else. It is that particular matchup aspect that works into Darvish, and will remain a serious challenge for him to counteract.

Mets – The Bullpen that can’t be fixed

The Mets begin the weekend in last place in the NL East, but Washington injuries and Atlanta offensive ineptitude have them only five games out of first. That keeps a sense of optimism in play, especially for those that view their 10-16 record in one-run games as something out-of-balance. Had they won half of them, they would be in the heart in the chase. There can be merit to those thoughts at times – long-term analysis shows that teams tend to not stray far from .500 in that category. But this team may be an exception, and this is the ideal time to take a look – there is a particular flaw New York has to overcome in close games, and in a week in which the Mets have gone 2-0 in one-run decisions, it matters to note the role that their flaw played.

That flaw is the bullpen. While losing phenom Matt Harvey in the starting rotation was a major blow heading into the season, the injury suffered by closer Bobby Parnell was also of extreme significance. There simply is not a replacement on hand, and while there are some talented young arms on the roster, the experience and moxie to handle pressure has been a chasm they have not been able to cross. It was not solved in the close games this week. On Thursday, they managed to gut it out 1-0 at Miami because Zack Wheeler went the distance. And the 3-2 win in St. Louis on Wednesday came when they entered the bottom of the 9th up 3-1, and it was actually a failure from the bullpen that created the one-run margin.

At least there was a “save” on Wednesday, after another Jenrry Mejia had to be removed, recorded by Dana Eveland. Yes, the 31-year old journeyman Eveland, wearing his eighth different MLB uniform, getting only his second career save, the first coming back in 2005.

Here is the importance of the issue – when you lack offense, margins do not come easily. Through 73 games the Mets are hitting .230/.310/.347, which rate #29, #24 and #29 across the Majors. They are also #26 in K’s. There will not be many games with breathing room. That means someone has to be on the mound to get the final out in high leverage situations, which is where the season has broken down, and why they are 33-40, despite a +9 run differential.

Let’s look at the sad numbers. The overall bottom line is not horrid – a 3.35 ERA is #10, and 3.91 xFIP is #21. But those are not the proper measurements – as mentioned above, there are some talented young arms. It is when the pressure builds that it falls down. The bullpen already has 17 losses, three more than any other team. There have been 12 blown saves, with only Pittsburgh having more. They are #26 in BB-per-9 and #30 in wild pitches, showing where the command issues reside.

Is there an answer? How about 10 different relievers have a blown save already. Jose Valverde was not going to fit, but while his release was proper based on performance, it took away the one guy that had some experience that might have helped the others. Mejia has the raw stuff from his arm, but not the moxie. He has been scored on in five of his last eight appearances, with two losses in that span, although baseball considerately rewards him with a “hold” on Wednesday, despite that outing being a failure. Like Mejia, Jeurys Familia has good stuff, but is not ready for pressure settings. There are going to be days in on which Wheeler, Jon Niese or Bartolo Colon will bring a matchup that you find value in. For now you might want to only focus on the First Five Innings in those games, or a +1.5 if the price point works. Sitting back and hoping that the Mets can shut the door on a close game is not a good place to have an investment.

Giants – Buster Posey, and that “Last Full Season’

Individual season statistics carry a tremendous amount of weight throughout the Baseball landscape. The W/L counts determine the playoff participants; the individual player stats become the designated points for contract negotiations; and the yearbooks and stat sites for the sport use those measuring sticks prominently. But the shrewd handicapper should not be limited to that. The advantage of 162 games is a significant sample that balances out schedules, various ballparks, and weather conditions. But it does not have to be limited to a calendar year; a revolving 162 can bring you major edges, recognizing things much more quickly than you otherwise would. Make “Last Full Season” (LFS) a part of your arsenal, and you have added a valuable tool. Which takes us to Posey, and a drop in power that is becoming an important issue as the 2014 season progresses.

Posey exploded on the scene in 2010 with a .305/.357/.505 that included 18 HR over just 108 games, and after that injury-shortened 2011, he came back with a .336/.408/.549 in 2012, with 24 HR. He opened 2013 with more of the same carrying a .325/.395/.536 into an appearance the All Star Game, with 13 HR. He looked like a perennial All Star, on his way to another big season.

But what happens if we use that break last July as a starting point? The numbers change dramatically. Although we do not quite get to a full 162, a significant sampling of 471 PA’s shows a .261/.333/.369, with only 11 HR. That is a major drop across the board, but the most alarming comes in the power department – it is well over 100 points lower than his career to that point.

There is an * that does account for part of it – he played through a broken finger down the stretch LY, and the numbers fell accordingly. But if we reduce the comparisons to 2014 only, his slash line still brings a career low in each of the three categories. Posey is a valuable player, with even his reduced offensive production still comfortably above the MLB standard for catchers. But could it be that his value will come more from contact and line drives, and not the power to muscle the ball out of the West coast ballparks where he will play the majority of his games? Posey’s production levels will matter – while the Giants enter the weekend with the NL’s best record, the bullpen has sprung leaks recently, and veterans Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are struggling in the rotation.

Mariners – Erasmis Ramirez walks the tight rope

As noted above in the Posey take, 162 games offers a valuable sample, with enough bounces of the ball to give many of the peripheral categories the foundation they need to avoid “noise”. Three games obviously does not, but sometimes you need to step in and do a manual over-ride on the smaller samples. Like now, before having your morning coffee on the day of the next Ramirez start, and seeing that 0.00 allowance on the “Last Three Starts” charts jumping out at you.

Ramirez is not ready yet. He may never be anything special, lacking enough options from his repertoire. But he just got one of those magical short-term runs that Baseball offers, and before he takes the mound again some clouds need to be added to those recent sunny skies.

First note that Ramirez got a good luck of the draw in those games, facing the struggling Rays in the pitcher-friendly Trop, and also the punchless Padres in the late afternoon shadows of Petco. Taking advantage of that, he did not allow a run over 15.2 IP. But it was a most unconventional path. Ramirez allowed 20 runners to reach base through that span, but none of them made the circuit around the bases. That is not easy to accomplish, though it is obviously aided by weak bats in tough hitters ballparks.

Let’s take a look at those games on an individual basis. His xFIP at Tampa checks in at 5.82, at home vs. Texas it was 4.66, and at San Diego it was 4.16. Considering the quality of opposition and venue, you would grade each of those outings as a failure (the league is at 3.80 for the season), and the dismal ratio of 12 K’s vs. 11 BB is simply awful vs. those lineups.

If we drop the season charts down to a low enough level to incorporate the 48 1/3 IP Ramirez has worked, we find 163 pitchers. Of those, his xFIP places him at #148. That looks about right, and the way that you should be pricing him. As for that recent 0.00, if you are reading it from a newspaper pitching form, set your coffee mug right over top of it.

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**Udog** · 06-20-2014, 05:28 PM

MLB

Friday, June 20

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Declining double-digit MLB totals a wonder for the Under
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MLB totals of 10 runs or more are joining the likes of the stegosaurus and hand-written letters. With a surge in pitching quality and the crackdown on steroids in baseball, oddsmakers rarely tip the scales when it comes to double-digit totals.

Heading into Friday’s action, the Colorado Rockies’ home tilt with the Milwaukee Brewers is pegged with a total of 10.5 runs – just the 25th double-digit total so far this season. Those sky-high numbers have produced a solid profit for those playing the Under, posting a 9-15-1 O/U record – 62 percent Under.

Last year, there were only 70 games with totals of 10 or more runs, and those expecting high-scoring contests were dealt a 28-39-3 Over/Under count – 58 percent Under.

Over the past two MLB seasons there has been a drastic decline in double-digit totals and also how those games finished for bettors.

The 2012 season featured 183 games with totals of 10 or more runs, with Over bettors squeaking out a modest 88-84-11 O/U mark (51 percent Over). The season before that, there were 106 games with double-digit totals in 2011, going 55-44-7 Over/Under – 55 percent Over.

This shift in offensive output isn't breaking news to anyone following baseball over the past half decade. The league average runs per game has been on the decline, dipping from 8.76 runs per game (4.38 runs per team) in 2010 to 8.56 in 2011, 8.64 in 2012, 8.34 in 2013 and 8.30 in 2014 – an average of just 4.15 runs scored per team. According to Covers Expert Marc Lawrence, prior to 2010, the lowest average run production per team over the past 17 MLB seasons was 4.60.

"There has definitely been a drastic drop in overall scoring in MLB the past few seasons and pitchers are dominating, especially since starters pitch fewer innings and managers are more likely to turn to middle relievers and other specialists out of the bullpen," says Covers Expert Steve Merril.

Even before this sudden power outage at the plate – and the correlated decrease in totals of 10 or more runs - baseball handicappers were wary of double-digit Over/Unders, with many refusing to play any number above 9.5 and any total set at fewer than seven runs. Many attribute high totals to risky outside factors like ballpark and wind.

“I generally assume that totals are set abnormally high for good reason, but can't see any value playing the Over when you're counting on the winning team to score at least six runs,” Covers Expert Sean Murphy says. “I'm not surprised that the Under has been a solid bet over the last couple of years, with improved pitching across the board.”

Those ballpark and wind factors have absolutely played a big role in almost every double-digit total so far this season. The Colorado Rockies and their thin-aired homestead, Coors Field, are the most notorious culprits, responsible for 23 of the 25 double-digit Over/Unders in 2014. The Rockies have helped produce a 9-12-1 O/U record in those games heading into Friday’s 10.5-run total versus Milwaukee.

The unpredictable Chicago winds at Wrigley Field have factored into two double-digit totals this spring – April 4 versus Philadelphia (11) and April 24 versus Arizona (10). Both games played Under.

The only other teams to provoke a total of 10 or more runs were the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins, who clashed in the Rogers Centre on June 10 with a total of 10 runs. The hard-hitting Blue Jays, who lead the bigs in home runs with 95, were blanked 4-0 by the Twins, who boast a 4.29 collective ERA (26th in the majors).

Note: Coors Field has been the biggest factor when it comes to double-digit spreads since 2011. It has hosted 134 regular season games with totals of 10 or more runs, producing a 68-61-5 Over/Under (53 percent Over) record in that span.

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Friday's Trends and Indexes - 6/20 (MLB, WNBA, Misc.)

Friday's Trends and Indexes - 6/20 (MLB, WNBA, Misc.)

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