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The Bum's 2014-15 College Football Previews of Conferences

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  • #16
    Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

    Odds to win the college football national championship.......

    4-1-- Florida State-- They've still got a pretty good QB.

    6-1-- Oregon-Alabama-Oklahoma

    7-1-- Ohio State-- Not much competition in their league.

    9-1-- Auburn-- QB Marshall better stay off the weed.

    10-1-- UCLA- Veteran QB, NFL head coach; my choice to win it all.

    15-1-- LSU-- Like most of SEC, have a new QB this year.


    **********

    Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: College football trends to ponder......

    13) South Carolina covered its last five games with rival Clemson.

    12) New Mexico covered its last 11 games with San Diego State.

    11) Arizona State covered its last eight games with Washington Huskies.

    10) Western Michigan covered its last six weeknight games.

    9) Arizona covered seven of its last nine games with USC, but they're 0-5 vs spread in game following a SU upset win.

    8) Kentucky covered twice in its last 12 visits to Tennessee.

    7) Pitt Panthers covered last six games as a double digit favorite.

    6) Boston College is 0-11 vs spread in last 11 games as road favorites of 4+ points.

    5) UCLA covered once in its last eight visits to California.

    4) Navy covered 10 of its last 13 games with rival Air Force.

    3) Wisconsin covered its last eight games with Purdue.

    2) UConn covered 18 of its last 22 tries as a home underdog.

    1) Michigan State covered its last six games with Michigan, but Ohio State covered its last four visits to East Lansing.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #17
      Sun Belt college football betting preview: Little league holds big value

      The Sun Belt looks like a four-team race for the title, but that means there’s big betting value outside of those contenders in college football’s tiniest conference.

      UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (2013: 9-4 SU, 5-8 ATS)

      Odds to win conference: +110
      Season win total: 9

      Why bet the Ragin’ Cajuns: UL Lafayette is the best team on paper in the Sun Belt coming into the 2014 season. The Ragin’ Cajuns return 17 starters, including quarterback Terrance Broadway, who put up big numbers last season. The offense will be potent once again after averaging 33.8 points per game in 2013. Their defense improved last season and they will move forward once again.

      Why not bet the Ragin’ Cajuns: Despite returning 17 starters, UL Lafayette's best playmaker - Darryl Surgent - graduated. Surgent was a solid receiver and an exceptional return man, giving the Ragin’ Cajuns consistent good field position. Losing one skill guy shouldn’t be an issue, but Surgent was a difference maker and ULL will miss his presence.

      Season win total pick: Over 9


      South Alabama Jaguars (2013: 6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS)

      Odds to win conference: +320
      Season win total: 8

      Why bet the Jaguars: South Alabama was much better than its 6-6 record last year. The Jaguars were a competitive bunch with five of their six losses coming by seven points or less. With 15 returning starters, South Alabama should have good fortune and win the close games. The Jaguars improved on both sides of the ball in 2013, so this team is on the upswing.

      Why not bet the Jaguars: South Alabama’s schedule is brutal down the stretch as three of its last five games are on the road. Trips to Louisiana and Arkansas State in conference play, and a game at South Carolina will be difficult, especially if the Jaguars are fatigued or beset with injuries.

      Season win total pick: Over 8


      UL Monroe Warhawks (2013: 6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS)

      Odds to win conference: +450
      Season win total: 7

      Why bet the Warhawks: UL Monroe plays the quirky 3-3-5 defensive scheme and with nine starters back, the stop unit will be much improved. The Warhawks didn’t get a bowl invite last season despite winning six games, so they will play with a chip on their shoulder, especially since they return 15 starters in 2014.

      Why not bet the Warhawks: The loss of quarterback Kolton Browning to graduation leaves UL Monroe with a big hole to fill in 2014. The schedule doesn’t help either as the Warhawks play three road games at SEC opponents and close the season by playing four of their last five games on the road.

      Season win total pick: Under 7


      Arkansas State Red Wolves (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

      Odds to win conference: +450
      Season win total: 7

      Why bet the Red Wolves: Arkansas State has been a consistent team over the last three seasons. It is 28-11 over its last 39 games, so ASU has developed a winning tradition in Jonesboro. The Red Wolves will have a strong defense that should keep them competitive.

      Why not bet the Red Wolves: The Red Wolves return just four starters on offense and they will be playing for their fifth new coach in five years. Blake Anderson moves from offensive coordinator to head coach - a position he’s never held before. At some point, the coaching turnover has to catch up to Arkansas State and 2014 might be the year.

      Season win total pick: Under 7


      Troy Trojans (2013: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

      Odds to win conference: +1,200
      Season win total: 6

      Why bet the Trojans: Troy’s offense projects to be explosive this season and as long as it gets consistent play from the quarterback position, the Trojans will be competitive. Their conference schedule is very kind and Troy should be able to take advantage of that, making its a sleeper in the Sun Belt.

      Why not bet the Trojans: The Trojans defense has a lot to prove this year after four straight seasons of allowing more than 30 points per game. Troy’s team success hinges on the stop unit. Replacing QB Corey Robinson is also a major hurdle to overcome. He graduated as the Sun Belt’s all-time career leading passer.

      Season win total pick: Over 6


      Texas State Bobcats (2013: 6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS)

      Odds to win conference: +1,500
      Season win total: 6

      Why bet the Bobcats: The Bobcats offense has a very strong rushing attack that can eat clock while paying ball control. They return eight starters, including a ton of experience along the offensive line. Sophomore QB Tyler Jones got plenty of experience last season and natural improvement should occur in his second season.

      Why not bet the Bobcats: The Texas State defense returns only four starters and the coaching situation has set it back. Coordinator John Thompson has coached at big-name schools, but he was hired just one week before spring practice. He will implement a 4-2-5 scheme but with inexperienced players, the Bobcats will struggle to stop opponents in 2014.

      Season win total pick: Under 6


      Georgia Southern Eagles (2013: 7-4 SU, 1-0 ATS)

      Odds to win conference: +5,500
      Season win total: 5

      Why bet the Eagles: Georgia Southern has finished the last four years with a winning record. The Eagles won at Florida last season and with 15 returning starters, their transition from FCS to FBS may be a bit easier than normal. Their talent fits in well with Sun Belt opponents.

      Why not bet the Eagles: There’s a lot of change going on with Georgia Southern in 2014. Willie Fritz is the new head coach and he’s looking to open up the Eagles’ run-based offense. Depth is also an issue for Georgia Southern as it only has 63 scholarship players (FCS rules) compared to the 85 allowed for FBS teams. The Eagles also play seven of their 12 games on the road this season.

      Season win total pick: Under 5


      Idaho Vandals (2013: 1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS)

      Odds to win conference: +10,000
      Season win total: 3

      Why bet the Vandals: Idaho is taking a step down in class by joining the Sun Belt. The Vandals can only improve off their one-win season and the return of 17 starters is definitely a plus. The lesser competition will give Idaho a major boost and it will be a much improved team in 2014.

      Why not bet the Vandals: The Vandals finished dead last in the FBS in scoring defense last season, giving up 46.8 points per game. Things don’t get easier for Idaho as it is now in a conference known for explosive offenses. The Vandals’ offense also needs to step way up as they averaged just 18.2 points per game last year and only 15.8 ppg in 2012.

      Season win total pick: Over 3


      New Mexico State Aggies (2013: 2-10 SU, 4-7 ATS)

      Odds to win conference: +10,000
      Season win total: 3

      Why bet the Aggies: New Mexico State will benefit from playing in the Sun Belt conference. Its schedule was brutal in head coach Doug Martin’s first season. But this year, the Aggies have manageable games that are winnable. The offense will surprise teams and the ability to score points will make New Mexico State better in 2014.

      Why not bet the Aggies: Statistically, New Mexico State had the worst defense in the country in 2013. It allowed 44.6 points and 550 yards per game. It returns just five starters to that unit and must learn the new schemes under new defensive coordinator Larry Coyer.

      Season win total pick: Over 3


      Appalachian State Mountaineers (2013: 4-8 SU, 1-0 ATS)

      Odds to win conference: +20,000
      Season win total: 3

      Why bet the Mountaineers: Appalachian State suffered its first losing season since 1993 after going just 4-8 in 2013. Winning programs tend to bounce back strong off a subpar season, so the Mountaineers will be hungry coming into 2014. With 15 returning starters, including nine on offense, Appalachian State will improve this season.

      Why not bet the Mountaineers: The team is moving up from FCS to FBS and it is a young and inexperienced team. Head coach Scott Satterfield is in just his second season and he has little experience as well. Facing better competition every week will prove to be too much for the Mountaineers in their first season in FBS.

      Season win total pick: Under 3


      Georgia State Panthers (2013: 0-12 SU, 8-4 ATS)

      Odds to win conference: +25,000
      Season win total: 2

      Why bet the Panthers: After going 0-12 in 2013, there’s nowhere to go but up for Georgia State. Despite going winless, the Panthers lost five games by 10 points or less so they were somewhat competitive and it showed in their ATS record.

      Why not bet the Panthers: Georgia State hopes its second year in FBS play will be better. But with only nine returning starters, expectations are extremely low. The Panthers have a weak offense and a terrible defense and anything more than two wins would be considered a successful season in Atlanta.

      Season win total pick: Under 2
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #18
        Four dark-horse NCAAF bets to make the BCS Final Four

        College football will undergo an exciting change this year with the first ever four-team playoff to crown its national champion.

        Everybody has their opinion on which four teams will be left standing after the season is over. We all know the favorites, so let's take a look at some of the dark-horse teams that could find their way into college football's final four:

        Stanford Cardinal (+400 to make BCS playoff)

        Oregon and UCLA have gotten a lot of love this preseason which leaves the Cardinal as the odd men out in the Pac-12. Under head coach David Shaw, the Cardinal have won double-digit games and have gone to a BCS bowl game all three years.

        They lost three games in 2013 but only by an average of 4.3 points. One play in each game could have been the difference between a win and a loss. It's also important to note that Stanford is 5-0 in the last two years against the two favorites in the Pac-12, Oregon and UCLA.


        Wisconsin Badgers (+3,300 to win national title)

        Like Stanford, Wisconsin has two other teams favored ahead of it in its conference, Ohio State and Michigan State. In head coach Gary Anderson's debut season, the Badgers lost three regular season games, but the loss to Arizona State can be discarded due to the fluke referee mishap and the other two were close 7-point losses.

        What you get from teams like Wisconsin and Stanford are solid play on both sides of the football and more than often they don't make mistakes, which keeps them in every single game. The Badgers do have a tough opener against LSU but they also don't play Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State or Ohio State.


        South Carolina Gamecocks (+2,500 to win national title)

        Most books have odds for four different SEC teams to make the national semifinal (Alabama, Auburn, Georgia and LSU) but Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks are nowhere to be found. Yes, they have to replace the best player on their offense - and arguably the heart and soul of their team - in Connor Shaw, and the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft in Jadeveon Clowney. But they still have one of the most experienced teams in the SEC.

        South Carolina still has one of the best running backs in the nation, Mike Davis, and a consistently good and underrated defense. The Gamecocks get Georgia in Columbia, which is big, and despite drawing a tough cross-divisional slate with Auburn and Texas A&M, their strength of schedule could be enough to get them to the playoff - even with a blemish - if they win big down the stretch.


        Marshall Thundering Herd (+10,000 to win national title *field)

        Ah, the wild card. This team has the talent and the schedule to run the table, priced as a huge -600 favorite to win the C-USA title. But, they will need some help in order to get to the playoff.

        Marshall needs to take care of business in conference play - in a decisive manner with no sexy non-conference opponents - and hope that the landscape looks similar to 2007 when the regular season ended with a multitude of two-loss teams near the top of the polls.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #19
          Pressing Mississippi State

          July 22, 2014

          For nearly a decade, LSU and Alabama have clearly been the superior programs in the SEC West. Now obviously, the previous statement didn't apply to Auburn last season and in 2010 with Cam Newton. But other than those years, the rest of the division has been looking up at 'Bama and LSU.

          In 2014, however, I think the West is wide open. In fact, with the exception of Arkansas, there are six schools that have the potential to get to Atlanta.

          I mainly say this because 'Bama and LSU don't know what they are going to get out of the quarterback position. I doubt there are many that would argue that the Crimson Tide has the most talent in the nation on offense at 10 positions.

          But if a defensive coordinator can make things murky for that 11th and most vital player under center, an offense can only accomplish so much. Jacob Coker appears to be the likely starter at QB for 'Bama, even though Nick Saban wouldn't go that far at SEC Media Days last week.

          Coker has excellent size and skills, and there's no shame in riding the pine behind E.J. Manuel and Jameis Winston. There are lots of reasons to think he'll be a quality SEC quarterback, but Coker hasn't jumped in the fire against live bullets yet. His only playing time at FSU came in mop-up duty.

          Coker also missed spring practice and didn't arrive in Tuscaloosa until the first week of May. Has he had enough time to gel with his teammates and learn the offense? Only time will tell.

          Anthony Jennings helped LSU pull out a win over Arkansas in last year's regular-season finale. With Zach Mettenberger injured, Jennings made his first career start in a 21-14 win over Iowa at the Outback Bowl. He'll battle with Brandon Harris for the starting job in Baton Rouge.

          Jennings and Harris are both athletic guys in the mold of Jordan Jefferson, meaning you can expect Les Miles to get back to living and dying with a ground attack and a stout defense. In other words, last year was an aberration in terms of LSU's style of play.

          Auburn certainly feels as if it is as talented as its in-state rival, but Gus Malzahn's team has to play in Tuscaloosa and has a much tougher schedule than the Crimson Tide. As for Texas A&M, it has to vastly improve on defense and, like LSU and 'Bama, the QB position is a question mark.

          Where I'm going with all of this is that if there's a year for Ole Miss or Mississippi State to break through, this could be it. There's a lot to like about both squads that hail from the Magnolia State.

          I'll hit on the Rebels at some point in the next week or two, but I want to spend the rest of this column talking about Dan Mullen's team. That's because I'm extremely bullish on backing Mississippi St. to go 'over' 7.5 wins (at even money via LVH SuperBook).

          When breaking down a season win total (that's based on the 12 regular-season games only), the schedule is the most important part of the handicap. Unlike last year when Mississippi St. lost a tough non-conference game to Oklahoma St. 21-3 in Houston, the Bulldogs have four lay-ups in non-con play. We can mark down four wins vs. So. Miss, vs. UAB, at South Alabama and vs. UT-Martin.

          Mullen couldn't ask for a better draw in terms of the two games against SEC East foes. Mississippi St. hosts Vanderbilt and plays at Kentucky off an open date. Those aren't two given victories, but the Bulldogs will almost certainly be favored in both matchups.

          Another 'chalk' spot for MSU will come in the form of a Nov. 1 home game vs. Arkansas. My thinking is that I've already mentioned seven wins, leaving us to find just one more in five remaining games. The best spot to get that 'W' will be at home vs. Texas A&M on Oct. 4.

          When the Bulldogs went to College Station last season, they produced 556 yards of total offense but couldn't stop Johnny Pigskin in a 51-41 loss. When the Aggies come to Starkville this year, they will be playing their sixth game in six weeks and their third in a row away from College Station (A&M plays at SMU and vs. Arkansas in Arlington the two previous weeks). On the flip side, MSU will have two weeks to prepare for the Aggies thanks to an open date.

          MSU's four other games include three road assignments (at LSU, at Alabama and at Ole Miss) and a home game against Auburn. Those are most likely four underdog situations, but the game in Oxford and the home game against AU are certainly winnable contests.

          Remember, Mississippi St. had a 20-17 advantage at Auburn last year in the final two minutes. The Tigers had to mount a drive of 80-plus yards and get a last-second touchdown pass to pull out the win.

          Now let's talk personnel. Mississippi St. brings back eight starters on each side of the ball from a team that went 7-6 straight up and 8-5 against the spread. We noted the narrow loss at Auburn and the Bulldogs had more yards in defeats at Texas A&M and at South Carolina.

          And we haven't even hit on the injuries and off-the-field turmoil quarterback Dak Prescott was dealing with. Prescott spent the entire season concerned about the failing health of his mother, who finally succumbed to a long battle with cancer on Nov. 4. If Prescott hadn't been injured in a 20-7 home loss to Alabama, who knows how that game goes?

          In the setback against the Tide, MSU could only muster 199 yards of total offense. The Bulldogs' defense was tenacious on that night, setting up the offense with several short fields they couldn't capitalize on.

          Prescott returns for his junior campaign brimming with confidence. He's healthy and ready to build upon an impressive sophomore season. Prescott rushed for 917 yards and 13 TDs, while also throwing for 1,940 yards and 10 scores. Six of his top seven pass catchers are back, including one of the SEC's best wideouts in Jameon Lewish, who had 64 receptions for 923 yards and five TDs in 2013.

          The defense is led by rising junior linebacker Bernardrick McKinney, who has made 173 tackles in two seasons. In Mel Kiper's most recent 2015 mock draft, McKinney is listed as a first-round pick. The Bulldogs also have a rising superstar in sophomore defensive tackle Chris Jones, who had three sacks and 10 QB hurries while playing as a reserve last year.

          Despite giving up 59 points to LSU and 51 to Texas A&M, Mississippi St. only allowed 23.0 points per game last year. With Mettenberger and Manziel gone, I see MSU playing better defense in 2014. And with Prescott poised for a breakout season, I have no doubt that the Bulldogs are going to be more prolific offensively. They'll average more than last year's 27.7 PPG output and will also put up at least eight wins. Jump on this 'over' right now.
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #20
            2014 MWC Preview

            July 21, 2014

            2014 Mountain West Football Preview

            We’re Back, Again

            For the sixth consecutive year, the Mountain West sent at least five teams into postseason bowl games in 2013. The MWC has earned 62 bowl bids since 1999 and holds a 35-27 (.565) all-time record in those contests. However, the Mountain West finished with a 3-3 mark in postseason play in 2013, marking the third year in a row the league failed to post a winning bowl record (6-10 last three seasons).

            Fresno State (11-2), Utah State (9-5), Boise State (8-5), San Diego State (8-5), Colorado State (8-6), UNLV (7-6) and San Jose State (6-6) all reached bowl eligibility, marking the ninth year in a row, and tenth overall, the MWC has boasted at least five bowl-eligible teams.

            In fact, its .596 win percentage (28-19) in bowl games since 2004 is second only to the SEC’s .659 glossy (54-28) mark.

            Newbies

            The Mountain West has welcomed 22 new head coaches over the last 15 seasons, nine of which played in a bowl game in their rookie year.

            Former BYU head coach Gary Crowton posted the most wins and highest win-percentage among the group with 12 victories and an .860 win percentage in his inaugural year in 2001. Utah State’s Matt Wells became the first to conclude his inaugural season by leading his team to the Mountain West Championship Game and a bowl appearance.

            Two new head coaches debut this season: Bryan Harsin with Boise State and Craig Bohl with Wyoming.

            We Won’t Back Down

            The 2014 non-conference slate features 25 games against teams that earned bowl berths last season.

            Six non-conference opponents finished ranked in last year’s final USA Today/Coaches’ and Associated Press Top 25 polls.

            Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

            Mountain Division

            AIR FORCE (Offense - *7/2 Defense - 9/2)

            TEAM THEME: A MAJOR FLYOVER
            Talk about a difficult job. After winning 34 games in his first four seasons, and taking the program to six straight bowl games, Troy Calhoun is suddenly up against it. Between no redshirts, a successful Navy program siphoning off considerable talent, and government budget cuts, Calhoun has witnessed three years of regression. Ravaged by injuries, the Flyboys were forced to play a slew of backups last season, including four different QB’s. As a result, Air Force lost 10 games for the first time in the program’s history. Ron Vanderlinden, former Maryland head coach and LB coach at Penn State the last 13 years, arrives to shore up 2013’s dreadful defense.

            STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Falcons were the worst team in the nation in Turnovers Gained (9) last season.

            BOISE STATE (Offense - 5/2 Defense - 8/1)

            TEAM THEME: A COMFORTABLE PAIR OF SHOES
            An 8-5 record is perfectly acceptable at most schools, but not at Boise State. The school won 112 games during the double-oughts (2000-09), an unprecedented mark for any school since 1900. Now for the first time in eight years, the Broncos will head onto the blue turf led by someone other than Chris Petersen, who went 84-8 as HC from 2006-12. Fortunately, it's a familiar face, that of Bryan Harsin – who played his entire college career and then coached on the Bronco staff from 2001-10 (Boise went 61-5 during his tenure as OC from 2006-10). His staff is young with all sorts of ties to BSU. Petersen left some big shoes to fill. Harsin breaks in a new pair this year.

            STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The last 5-loss season for the Broncos was in 1998. They have averaged an 11-2 season since.

            COLORADO STATE (Offense - *5/1 Defense - 6/1)

            TEAM THEME: ROCKY MOUNTAIN HIGH
            Jim McElwain, a Nick Saban disciple, welcomes back the top returning passer in the Mountain West, Garrett Grayson, who threw for 3,696 yards and 23 TD’s last season. Three of Grayson’s top four receivers are back as well, but someone will need to fill the shoes of Kapri Bibbs, who left early for the NFL draft, and the loss of four senior OL. Fortunately, the Rams will be playing two-thirds of their games in the state of Colorado. McIlwain will try to build on last year’s successful campaign that concluded with an incredible 48-45 win over Washington State, a game in which they were down by 15 points with 3 minutes to play in the New Mexico Bowl.

            STAT YOU WILL LIKE: CSU was the only team in the nation to end the 2013 season with a 3,000 yard passer (Grayson) and a 1,500 yard rusher (Bibbs).

            NEW MEXICO (Offense - *6/3 Defense - 6/1)

            TEAM THEME: THE NEXT STEP
            The Lobos enter the 3rd year of a rebuilding plan masterminded by HC Bob Davie. Progress has been slow but the improvement is evident. “It’s time for us to take the next step and start to play the game the way it’s supposed to be played,” says Davie. The footprint on the team is its overland game, one that ranked No. 4 (308.8) overall last year. QB Cole Gautsche, who rushed for 872 yards last season, keys the offense. The problem is the Lobos owned the worst Passing Efficiency Defense in the nation in 2013. After enduring sanctions, New Mexico has a full 85-man roster for the first time since 2008, albeit only two 5th-year seniors on the squad.

            STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Lobos have been outscored 7.1 PPG under Davie. They had been outscored 26.0 PPG the prior three seasons.

            UTAH STATE (Offense - *4/1 Defense - 5/1)

            TEAM THEME: CHUCKIE’S BACK
            En route to winning back-to back-bowl games for the first time in school history last year, 1st-year HC Matt Wells was named MWC Coach of the Year. The Aggie defense did not appear to fall off much when Gary Andersen left for Wisconsin last year. After earning the top spot in the land in red zone defense in 2012, USU finished No. 6 last season. The big news this year, though, is the anticipated return of star QB Chuckie Keeton, a 3-year starter who missed the final seven games with a broken leg and knee injury last year. His backup, Darell Garretson, went 6-1 as a true freshman last year, including five straight wins to start his career.

            STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Aggies are 25-8 in their last 33 games, with the eight losses coming by a combined 48 points.

            WYOMING (Offense - 7/2 Defense - 9/3)

            TEAM THEME: A COWBOY COUP D’ETAT
            To quote Bill Connelly of SB Nation, “Wyoming pulled off a coup by landing Craig Bohl as its new head coach.” The former HC at North Dakota State led his team to three consecutive FCS championships the last three years, going 42-3 in the process – including a season-opening shocker at Kansas State last year. A former DC at Nebraska (his alma mater), Bohl needs to desperately remold a defense that surrendered nearly 50 PPG in its final six games last season. Losing QB Brett Smith in an early out to the NFL hurts but returning the Cowboys’ leading rusher and wide receiver is certainly a huge plus. September road trips to Michigan State and Oregon are not.

            STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cowboys were the worst-ranked team in the nation in Time Of Possession last season.

            West Division

            FRESNO STATE (Offense - 5/3 Defense - 8/1)

            TEAM THEME: CARR TROUBLES
            With the Derek Carr era now in the rear-view mirror, 2014 could be a very tough year for Tim DeRuyter in Fresno. The Bulldogs open with an ambitious schedule before the meat of the Mountain West slate kicks in. The defense remains nearly intact but the loss of Carr’s gaudy passing numbers (over 5,000 yards and 50 TD’s), and the three graduated receivers who combined for 33 TD catches, cannot be easily replaced. After a 10-0 start last season, Fresno saw a BCS bowl slip through its fingers, then suffered a throttling by USC in the Las Vegas Bowl. All things considered, the Bulldogs will be hard pressed to win a third straight MWC title.

            STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Six of the eight returning starters on defense played in all 13 contests last season.

            HAWAII (Offense - 7/4 Defense - 6/2)

            TEAM THEME: YAP-A-LAKALAKA
            Norm Chow heads into his third season as HC on the island of Oahu coming off a dismal 1-11 record. But the Rainbow Warriors weren't as bad as their record might indicate. In fact, we might even say they were the best 1-11 squad to come down the pike in a long time. You just couldn’t tell it in the win column. Consider: In Norm Chow’s first year at the helm with Hawaii in 2013, their 9 losses were by 31.1 PPG. Last year’s 11 defeats were by 13.0 PPG. With RB’s Joey Iosefa, Diocemy Saint Juste, and bruiser Steven Lakalaka – plus star DL Beau Yap – leading the charges, this team is certainly not lacking in name power.

            STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chow is 0-15 SU vs. greater-than .333 opponents, but 6-1 ATS vs. non-conferences foes.

            NEVADA (Offense - *7/3 Defense - 10/4)

            TEAM THEME: AULT HEIMER’S DISEASE
            It’s not surprising that the Wolfpack regressed big time following the second retirement of Chris Ault. The inventor of the pistol offense reached a zenith in 2010 (Colin Kaepernick’s senior year) when Nevada went 13-1. But in their first season under Brian Polian last year, the Pack went 0-8 against teams with a winning record. Polian’s team got ‘rappykacked’ by UCLA and Florida State early in the year on the road, and finished with an 0-6 road mark. They’ll once again turn to SR QB Cody Fajardo, who threw for 2,633 yards and rushed for 762 more last year. His .678 career completion percentage ranks third nationally and is tops in Nevada school history.

            STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Wolf Pack was the only one of 42 FBS teams last season to finish with a positive TO margin and a losing record.

            SAN DIEGO STATE (Offense - *6/3 Defense - 4/2)

            TEAM THEME: SUNNY IN SAN DIEGO
            For a football team that won 35 games between 2001-09, 34 wins over the last four years is especially notable. And after appearing in four bowls from 1969-2009, the Aztecs’ four bowls the past four seasons is downright inspiring. More impressively, they kept their bowl streak alive despite ranking dead last nationally in red zone defense – and fielding the 118th-ranked red zone offense. HC Rocky Long’s reliance on former head coach Bob Toledo (OC) and ex-NFL QB Brian Sipe (QB coach) speaks for itself. Quarterback Quinn Kaehler completed 232 of 389 passes for 19 TD's and 3,007 yards in 2013 and looks to have a breakout season this year.

            STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Aztecs were the only team in the nation to participate in four overtime games last season.

            SAN JOSE STATE (Offense - 5/2 Defense - 8/4)

            TEAM THEME: WITHOUT FALE(S)
            After taking the program from 1-12 to 11-2 in three years, Mike McIntyre left San Jose and handed the keys to Rod Caragher, who slipped to 5-7 last season. Safe to say the injury bug bit the Spartans hard in 2013 when their leading rusher, wide receiver and linebacker played in a combined three games all year! Caragher faces a stiffer test in 2014 – namely life without star QB David Fales. The good news is Tyler Winston, the MWC Freshman of the Year, is back after snaring 58 receptions for 858 yards last season. In addition, RB Jarrod Lawson was the team’s leading rusher (788 yards) as a freshman in 2013. A deep front seven will anchor the defense.

            STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Former Syracuse head coach and Michigan and Texas Defensive Coordinator Greg Robinson takes over as DC for the Spartans in 2014.

            UNLV (Offense - 7/4 Defense - 6/2)

            TEAM THEME: NOT MAKING THE GRADE
            With the team’s average APR score (925) falling 5 points short of minimum NCAA requirements, the Rebs were given sanctions: no postseason competition, replace four hours of practice time with four hours of academics weekly and have five days of football-related activities a week instead of six. Not what the program needed after finally crawling out from under a 6-32 rock by reaching the Heart Of Dallas Bowl last season. Biggest losses on the field this year include QB Caleb Herring (2,718 yards with 24 TD’s and 5 INT’s), and RB Tim Cornett (1,284 rushing yards with 15 TD’s). HC Bobby Hauck’s mission will be to somehow keep this squad glued together.

            STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The offensive line returns 136 career starts among six players with starting experience.
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #21
              FSU, Miami picked to win ACC divisions

              July 21, 2014


              GREENSBORO, N.C. (AP) - Florida State was an obvious choice as a favorite in one of the Atlantic Coast Conference's divisions.

              In the other one, the pecking order was nowhere near that clear.

              Miami was the pick to win the ACC's cluttered Coastal Division despite receiving fewer first-place votes than two other teams.

              ''I think it's wide open. I think that's why everybody got votes,'' North Carolina coach Larry Fedora said. ''Anybody could win it.''

              The league announced its predicted order of finish following a vote of 112 media members at its preseason media days.

              The Seminoles were picked as the overall league champions by 104 media members and received 109 first-place votes in their division to put them far ahead of Clemson, which had three.

              ''I feel very similar to this team as far as how it's went from an attitude standpoint, to a work standpoint to getting the results and what you needed to this stage and where it's at,'' Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher said. ''So from that standpoint, I do feel very confident.''

              It's hard to say who is the true favorite to face Florida State in the ACC championship game in December in Charlotte.

              Four Coastal teams were separated by 44 points: Miami had 614 points to 597 for Duke, 571 for Virginia Tech and 570 for North Carolina.

              Both the Blue Devils (33) and Tar Heels (27) received more first-place votes than the Hurricanes (26) - the Coastal favorites for the second straight year.

              ''I don't really get into all that. I'm trying to teach the team the opposite,'' Miami coach Al Golden said. ''We've got to teach this team to ignore the noise, to stay focused on the process and just turn this season into one-game missions. ... We're not really talking about Coastal championships and all that. We're talking about taking care of our business today.''

              For Duke - which won an unlikely Coastal title last year - at least the Blue Devils weren't in the cellar.

              In what had been an annual rite of July, the Blue Devils were the last-place pick in either their division or overall every year from 2000-2013 except one.

              This is by far the highest Duke has been picked since the league split into divisions in 2005. The Blue Devils were picked third overall in 1983, when the ACC had eight teams.

              ''There's got to be a sense of accomplishment,'' Duke coach David Cutcliffe said. ''The thing that you want them to understand is that if you like the way this tastes, you're going to have to get better. You don't stay the same. You have to have those tangible things that we do better for us to have a successful 2014 team.''

              Newcomer Louisville was picked third in the Atlantic, followed by Syracuse, North Carolina State, Boston College and Wake Forest.

              ''Were we picked to win it? Were we unanimous first? The bull's-eye is on us,'' new Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson deadpanned.

              ''I live in the real world, but (the low expectations are) a challenge,'' he added. ''It's not a huge margin for error this year. I get it. But it's still our challenge as coaches to put our guys in positions to be successful.''

              Miami, Duke, Virginia Tech and North Carolina combined to receive all but three first-place votes in the Coastal. Fifth-place pick Georgia Tech had one, Pittsburgh had two and last-place selection Virginia had none.

              Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston of Florida State was the overwhelming pick for preseason player of the year with 99 votes.

              Clemson defensive end Vic Beasley, who had six votes, was the only player besides Winston to receive multiple votes for the individual award.
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • #22
                Pac-12 college football betting preview: Ducks doomed by defense again?

                The Pac-12 is a conference loaded with serious college football playoff contenders, Heisman Trophy front runners, and big-name head coaches.

                Oregon is the obvious favorite, but Stanford, UCLA, and USC should be hot on the Ducks’ trail if they falter. Six teams look like bowl locks as many as 10 may end up being eligible.

                Arizona Wildcats (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

                Odds to win conference: +2500
                Season win total: 6.5

                Why bet the Wildcats: Rich Rodriguez has guided the Wildcats to two straight 8-5 campaigns and is now dealing primarily with his players who are familiar with his system. Wide receiver Austin Hill will be back from a knee injury and the defense was vastly improved in RichRod’s second season.

                Why not bet the Wildcats: Arizona was wildly inconsistent last season, with a 26-point drubbing of Oregon in between a home loss to Washington State and a 37-point setback at Arizona State. Quarterback B.J. Benker graduated. Included on the Wildcats’ schedule are games at Oregon and at UCLA.

                Season win total pick: Over 6.5


                Arizona State Sun Devils (2013: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS)

                Odds to win conference: +600
                Season win total: 7.5

                Why bet the Sun Devils: Arizona State surprised its way to the best record in the Pac-12 last season. Three-year starter Taylor Kelly returns at quarterback. The Sun Devils also return receivers Jaelen Strong and D.J. Foster and they get to play UCLA, Stanford, and Notre Dame at home.

                Why not bet the Sun Devils: Although the offensive line is somewhat depleted, the main concern -by a mile - is defense. Nine of 11 starters are gone, including third-round draft pick Will Sutton (defensive tackle) and outside linebacker Carl Bradford. Arizona State’s defense already was not very good.

                Season win total pick: Under 7.5


                California Golden Bears (2013: 1-11 SU, 2-10 ATS)

                Odds to win conference: +10000
                Season win total: 2.5

                Why bet the Golden Bears: Head coach Sonny Dykes is widely regarded as an offensive genius. He simply did not have the horses at his disposal in 2013, his first year at the helm. Quarterback Jared Goff is a highly-touted freshman who will have little pressure on him after last season’s debacle at California.

                Why not bet the Golden Bears: Still, Goff is a freshman and may not make a smooth transition to the college ranks without much help around him. The Golden Bears also have a new defensive coordinator, so this is obviously a transition period. Six of their opponents finished the 2013 season in the AP top 25.

                Season win total pick: Under 2.5


                Colorado Buffaloes (2013: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS)

                Odds to win conference: +10000
                Season win total: 4.5

                Why bet the Buffaloes: Colorado improved in just about every statistical category under new head coach Mike MacIntyre in 2013, including wins (from one to four). Quarterback Sefo Liufau showed promise as a freshman and now has a year under his belt. Fellow sophomore Addison Gillam made 119 tackles at linebacker last season.

                Why not bet the Buffaloes: Wide receiver Paul Richardson (83 catches, 1343 yards, 10 TDs) left early and was selected in the second round of the NFL Draft. The Buffaloes are still young and lacking depth. They are likely a year away from bowl contention, which will come when MacIntyre really has his own players in place.

                Season win total pick: Under 4.5


                Oregon Ducks (2013: 11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS)

                Odds to win conference: +115
                Season win total: 10.5

                Why bet the Ducks: Somewhat unexpectedly, quarterback Marcus Mariota is back for another season. A legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate, Mariota will once again be supported by a loaded backfield. The Ducks now have a year of experience under head coach Mark Helfrich and they get to play both Michigan State and Stanford at home.

                Why not bet the Ducks: As usual, it’s the defense that’s a question mark. For the first time in 15 years, the unit is being led by a new voice following the retirement of coordinator Nick Aliotti. Stanford ran all over Oregon in 2013 and a whole host of key contributors have departed what will be a depleted defensive line.

                Season win total pick: Over 10.5


                Oregon State Beavers (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

                Odds to win conference: +3300
                Season win total: 6.5

                Why bet the Beavers: Like Oregon, Oregon State has a signal-caller who opted to forgo the NFL Draft. Sean Mannion is back for his senior year after breaking the Pac-12 single-season record with 4,662 passing yards. The Beavers’ defense returns seven starters. They play four of their last five games at home, including versus Oregon.

                Why not bet the Beavers: Oregon State will be working with a new offensive coordinator (Danny Langsdorf left for a role with the New York Giants) and must deal with the loss of receiver Brandin Cooks (first-round pick of the New Orleans Saints). Defensive end Scott Crichton also left early and only one starter on the d-line returns.

                Season win total pick: Under 6.5


                Stanford Cardinal (2013: 11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS)

                Odds to win conference: +500
                Season win total: 9.5

                Why bet the Cardinal: The Cardinal have won back-to-back Pac-12 championships and head coach David Shaw - 25-4 lifetime in conference games - is back on board. Quarterback Kevin Hogan and all of his aerial weapons are also returning. The defensive line will be stocked full of seniors.

                Why not bet the Cardinal: Running backs Tyler Gaffney and Anthony Wilkerson graduated and a whole host of stalwarts on Stanford’s heralded offensive line are also gone. Shaw may be back, but the Cardinal saw their coordinators and various staff members raided by other programs. The schedule is brutal, with road dates at Notre Dame, Oregon, and UCLA.

                Season win total pick: Under 9.5


                UCLA Bruins (2013: 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS)

                Odds to win conference: +400
                Season win total: 9.5

                Why bet the Bruins: UCLA beat just about everyone it was supposed to last year, aside from a home loss to Arizona State, and is coming off a 42-12 drubbing of Virginia Tech in the Sun Bowl. Do-it-all quarterback Brett Hundley is back for his junior campaign. The Bruins entertain Oregon, USC, and Stanford all at home.

                Why not bet the Bruins: Departures from last season’s squad include wide receiver Shaq Evans and linebacker Anthony Barr. Even beyond Barr, the Bruins were further depleted at linebacker and along the defensive line due to graduation. Defensive coordinator Lou Spanos also left for the NFL’s Tennessee Titans.

                Season win total pick: Over 9.5


                USC Trojans (2013: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS)

                Odds to win conference: +500
                Season win total: 8.5

                Why bet the Trojans: Lane Kiffin is out. It’s hard to say that is not a good thing. Steve Sarksian is in. The jury is still out, of course, but he at least has ties to USC (coach from 2005-2008) and did well there in the past. Quarterback Cody Kessler is back in an attempt to soften the blow of receiver Marqise Lee’s departure to the NFL.

                Why not bet the Trojans: Sarksian is going to run things differently, starting with a much more up-tempo offense. A veteran offensive line would facilitate such a transition, but instead the head coach will be forced to almost complete rebuild up front. The Trojans lost three of their four best pass rushers from the 2013 squad.

                Season win total pick: Over 8.5


                Utah Utes (2013: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)

                Odds to win conference: +6600
                Season win total: 4.5

                Why bet the Utes: Utah should be in good shape at both running back and receiver. Bubba Poole will once again anchor the backfield and Devontae Booker was explosive in spring practice. Dres Anderson was the Pac-12’s leading receiver last season. The Utes will host both USC and Oregon.

                Why not bet the Utes: Quarterback could be a position of strength, but right now it is a question mark. Travis Wilson was plagued by physical problems in 2013. The defense has also been depleted by injuries and star pass rusher Trevor Reilly (8.5 sacks last year) graduated.

                Season win total pick: Over 4.5


                Washington Huskies (2013: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)

                Odds to win conference: +1400
                Season win total: 9.5

                Why bet the Huskies: Chris Petersen is one of the most well-respected coaches in the business after an extremely successful stint at Boise State. He takes over for Sarksian. Both the offensive and defensive lines remain largely intact. The Huskies play Stanford and UCLA at home, not to mention borderline guaranteed wins against visiting Georgia State and Illinois.

                Why not bet the Huskies: Quarterback Keith Price is gone and it’s not clear who’s going to be taking over for Washington. The defense has major question marks in the secondary. Petersen may be a proven coach, but is some kind of transition period necessary before his program really takes off?

                Season win total pick: Under 9.5


                Washington State Cougars (2013: 6-7 SU, 9-4 ATS)

                Odds to win conference: +2500
                Season win total: 5.5

                Why bet the Cougars: The Cougars won nine total games in the four years prior to Mike Leach’s arrival. In just two seasons under the offensive mastermind, they have already matched that number. Leach has the program on the rise and it could continue with experience at two of the positions Leach loves most: QB (senior Connor Halliday) and wide receiver.

                Why not bet the Cougars: Washington State was one of the most one-dimensional teams last season, averaging only 53.4 rushing yards per game. Improvement will not come easy with three of five offensive linemen having departed. Star safety Deone Bucannon is also gone.

                Season win total pick: Over 5.5
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • #23
                  Big Ten college football betting preview: Value in middle of conference

                  The Big Ten may be a new-look conference with 14 teams now in the fold, but the end result should be a similar one with a few absolutely awful teams and a few that could contend for the national championship.

                  Urban Meyer and Ohio State are hoping to seize what Michigan State took from them last season: a conference title.

                  Illinois Fighting Illini (2013: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS)

                  Odds to win conference: +10,000
                  Season win total: 4.5

                  Why bet the Fighting Illini: Tim Beckman is heading into his third year as head coach, which has generally been a good one for the top dog at Illinois. Big things are expected of Oklahoma State transfer Wes Lunt at quarterback. Lunt will have Josh Ferguson (779 rushing yards) back in the backfield.

                  Why not bet the Fighting Illini: The Illini lost three key receivers, so they are not riddled with veterans who can help Lunt ease into his new role. On the defensive side of the ball, Illinois recorded a total of 15 sacks last season. The unit returns eight starters, but that might not be a good thing.

                  Season win total pick: Under 4.5


                  Indiana Hoosiers (2013: 5-7 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

                  Odds to win conference: +10,000
                  Season win total: 5.5

                  Why bet the Hoosiers: Head coach Kevin Wilson is likely to do away with a two-quarterback system, so Nate Sudfeld will be able to get into more of rhythm. Regardless, the Hoosiers’ offense will be led by running back Tevin Coleman. With a star back and what should be Indiana’s best offensive line in years, Sudfeld will be in position to succeed.

                  Why not bet the Hoosiers: The Hoosiers are consistently a juggernaut on offense and nothing short of a disaster on defense. They allowed more than 38 points and 500 yards per game last season. A new defensive coordinator is obviously a wise move, but a transition to a 3-4 scheme may take some time. Indiana has only six home games after having eight in 2013.

                  Season win total pick: Under 5.5


                  Iowa Hawkeyes (2013: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

                  Odds to win conference: +1,400
                  Season win total: 8.5

                  Why bet the Hawkeyes: Iowa is on the rise after a four-win improvement to 8-5 last season. The team returns quarterback Jake Rudock, leading rusher Mark Weisman, leading receiver Kevonte Martin-Manley, and stud left tackle Brandon Scherff. The Hawkeyes do not have Ohio State, Michigan, or Michigan State on the 2014 schedule.

                  Why not bet the Hawkeyes: Six starters from the 2013 squad are gone, including all three linebackers and all-conference cornerback B.J. Lowery. The departure of NFL third-round draft pick C.J. Fiedorowicz leaves a void at tight end.

                  Season win total pick: Over 8.5


                  Maryland Terrapins (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

                  Odds to win conference: +10,000
                  Season win total: 7.5

                  Why bet the Terrapins: Maryland has improved from two wins to four wins to seven wins in three years under head coach Randy Edsall. His program will be inspired to get off to a fast start in a new conference and send a message to the Big Ten. Seven starters, including QB C.J. Brown, are back on offense and a whopping nine return on defense.

                  Why not bet the Terrapins: The ACC was bad last season outside of national champion Florida State, which may explain Maryland’s win total but also could leave the team unprepared for the spike in both competition and ruggedness in the Big Ten. The offensive line is somewhat depleted and the schedule includes dates with Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Michigan.

                  Season win total pick: Under 7.5


                  Michigan Wolverines (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

                  Odds to win conference: +900
                  Season win total: 7.5

                  Why bet the Wolverines: Head coach Brady Hoke managed to hire offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier away from Alabama. Nussmeier will have Devin Gardner back in action for the quarterback’s last hurrah in Ann Arbor. On defense, the Wolverines return all three starting linebackers and welcome prized cornerback recruit Jabrill Peppers.

                  Why not bet the Wolverines: This is the youngest team in Hoke’s four-year tenure at Michigan and the program seems to be stuck in neutral following an 11-win campaign in its first season under Hoke. The Wolverines allowed a nation-worst 114 tackles for loss last year and star offensive tackle Taylor Lewan has left for the NFL.

                  Season win total pick: Over 7.5


                  Michigan State Spartans (2013: 13-1 SU, 9-4-1 ATS)

                  Odds to win conference: +400
                  Season win total: 9.5

                  Why bet the Spartans: Michigan State is coming off a dream season in which it won the Big Ten title and the Rose Bowl. Quarterback Connor Cook (MVP of both the conference champion and the bowl game) is back, as is running back Jeremy Langford. The Spartans also boast one of the best duos of defensive ends in the nation.

                  Why not bet the Spartans: Six starters have departed last year’s defensive unit and just one starting linebacker returns. It’s hard to see the Spartans finishing second and third in the nation in total and scoring defense, respectively, yet again. The schedule includes Ohio State, Michigan, and road trips to Oregon and Penn State.

                  Season win total pick: Over 9.5


                  Minnesota Golden Gophers (2013: 8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS)

                  Odds to win conference: +5,000
                  Season win total: 6.5

                  Why bet the Golden Gophers: Minnesota has improved from three wins to six wins to eight wins in three years under head coach Jerry Kill. He is building his program with defense (25th in the nation in scoring defense last season), just like he did at Southern Illinois and Northern Illinois. Much of the offense returns, including leading rusher David Cobb.

                  Why not bet the Golden Gophers: Philip Nelson transferred and quarterback Mitch Leidner has minimal starting experience. Wide receiver is likely to be a problem following the departure of Derrick Engel. Kill’s health issues are also a concern. Minnesota has to play Michigan and Ohio State from the Big Ten East.

                  Season win total pick: Under 6.5


                  Nebraska Cornhuskers (2013: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)

                  Odds to win conference: +550
                  Season win total: 7.5

                  Why bet the Cornhuskers: Quarterback Tommy Armstrong has a year of experience under his belt and he has two of the top skill players in the conference at his disposal in running back Ameer Abdullah and receiver Kenny Bell. Defensive end Randy Gregory led the Big Ten in sacks last season.

                  Why not bet the Cornhuskers: Bo Pelini has been solid in six seasons, but he has not taken Nebraska to serious national prominence or even legitimate conference contention. The pressure is on in major way right now. Only three starters return on defense. A tough schedule includes games at Michigan State, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

                  Season win total pick: Over 7.5


                  Northwestern Wildcats (2013: 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS)

                  Odds to win conference: +4,000
                  Season win total: 6.5

                  Why bet the Wildcats: Northwestern went just 5-7 last season, but it lost two games in overtime and dropped two more by three points each. Seven starters return on defense and the offense once again features QB Trevor Siemian and RB Venric Mark. The Big Ten schedule lacks both Michigan State and Ohio State.

                  Why not bet the Wildcats: The Wildcats are coming off a bowl-less season after making it to the postseason in five consecutive years. An offensive line that was bad in 2013 doesn’t project to be much better. Injuries to the defense already mounted during the spring.

                  Season win total pick: Over 6.5


                  Ohio State Buckeyes (2013: 12-2 SU, 6-7-1 ATS)

                  Odds to win conference: -110
                  Season win total: 10.5

                  Why bet the Buckeyes: Quarterback Braxton Miller is back and has speedsters all around him on offense. Urban Meyer has brought in another outstanding recruiting class that should be able to contribute immediately. Ohio State’s defensive line should be scary. The schedule is a friendly one aside from a road trip to Michigan State.

                  Why not bet the Buckeyes: Ohio State wrapped up its 2013 campaign on a two-game losing streak. Running back Carlos Hyde is gone. So are four starters on the offensive line. Linebacker Ryan Shazier has also headed to the NFL.

                  Season win total pick: Over 10.5


                  Penn State Nittany Lions (2013: 7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS)

                  Odds to win conference: N/A
                  Season win total: 8.5

                  Why bet the Nittany Lions: New head coach James Franklin was a proven winner at Vanderbilt. He inherits a rising star at quarterback in sophomore Christian Hackenberg. The road schedule is friendly and PSU gets to play both Ohio State and Michigan State at home.

                  Why not bet the Nittany Lions: Penn State is still under NCAA sanctions, so depth is a problem and the team is not eligible for the postseason. Franklin has a tough job ahead of him for those two reasons. The Nittany Lions also have only one healthy returning starter on the offensive line.

                  Season win total pick: Under 8.5


                  Purdue Boilermakers (2013: 1-11 SU, 3-8-1 ATS)

                  Odds to win conference: +25,000
                  Season win total: 3.5

                  Why bet the Boilermakers: Purdue has an experienced defense, led by Ryan Russell, Sean Robinson, and Joe Gilliam in the front seven. Track star Raheem Mostert is a home-run threat on offense. The schedule is a good one, with Michigan and Ohio State nowhere to be found and five home games to start.

                  Why not bet the Boilermakers: The Boilermakers were a horrendous 1-11 in their first year under head coach Darrell Hazell. Purdue’s best player in 2013 was punter Cody Webster. The offensive line remains a huge concern.

                  Season win total pick: Under 3.5


                  Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2013: 6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS)

                  Odds to win conference: +20,000
                  Season win total: 4.5

                  Why bet the Scarlet Knights: Former Maryland head coach Ralph Friedgen is in as offensive coordinator - a post at which he excelled with Georgia Tech. Rutgers returns all five starters on the offensive line. The running back duo of Paul James and Justin Goodwin is also back.

                  Why not bet the Scarlet Knights: The Scarlet Knights will be making a tough transition from the American Athletic Conference to the Big Ten. There is already a quarterback controversy with Gary Nova and Chris Laviano. Rutgers’ defense was historically bad last season (it also has a new coordinator on that side of the ball) and the schedule is the toughest in school history.

                  Season win total pick: Under 4.5


                  Wisconsin Badgers (2013: 9-4 SU, 9-3-1 ATS)

                  Odds to win conference: +450
                  Season win total: 9.5

                  Why bet the Badgers: With four starters on the offensive line returning and Melvin Gordon at running back, Wisconsin should boast one of the best ground games in the nation. The schedule is phenomenal. The Badgers’ toughest road game is at Iowa and they won’t face either Ohio State or Michigan State.

                  Why not bet the Badgers: Head coach Gary Andersen’s first season ended with a sour two-game losing streak. Personnel changes abound, with only a total of eight starters returning. Tanner McEvoy and Joel Stave are relative question marks at quarterback and the front seven on defense is 100 percent new.

                  Season win total pick: Over 9.5
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Fade Alert - Ohio State

                    July 25, 2014

                    Since head coach Urban Meyer became head coach of Ohio State in 2012, the Buckeyes have posted a 24-2 record and that includes back-to-back 12-0 marks in the regular season.

                    Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag have posted a win total of 10 ½ (-120) for the 2014 regular season. While a lot of experts believe Meyer and company should dominate the Big Ten this season, I’m not one of them.

                    I believe UNDER 10 ½ is a great play and I also believe this Buckeyes squad is incredibly overrated.

                    Before going over all 12 of the Buckeyes' games this upcoming season, I would like to make some general observations about the team.

                    Defensively, Ohio State will field their worst secondary in 20-25 years on opening day against Navy. OSU returns only one starter (Doran Grant) in the defensive backfield. The other three DBs are greenhorns and will get torched all year.

                    Another glaring weak point for Ohio State is their offensive line. Again, I believe the Buckeyes will feature their worst offensive line in 20 seasons. Taylor Decker is the only returning full-time starter. He is moving from RT to LT in order to give Miller time to work his magic. Teams will pour through OSU's blockers and force Miller to make mistakes. The Buckeyes lost three great linemen to graduation in Andrew Norwell, Corey Lindsey and All-American tackle Jack Mewhort. The drop-off in protection will be profound.

                    Ohio State will also feel the loss of four more great players, in particular Ryan Shazier, Bradley Roby, Carlos Hyde, and Corey "Philly" Brown. All four were winners, plus Drew Basil was a steady placekicker and he also departs.

                    Again, it’s hard to ignore the 24-2 record the last two seasons but we can’t forget that the Buckeyes ended last year’s season with a two-game skid.

                    Some novice bettors might’ve forgotten that Miller was injured last season and fortunately Ohio State had a stable backup in senior Kenny Guiton. He’s gone and there isn’t much experienced behind Braxton this fall. If Miller were to be injured early in the season and unable to return, OSU could finish 7-5 or 6-6.

                    Let's look at Ohio State's 12 opponents.

                    Game 1 vs. Navy (at Baltimore): Quarterback Keenan Reynolds will burn the young OSU secondary. Reynolds is fast and shifty on his feet and accurate when passing for short gains. The Midshipmen return 15 starters and this is essentially a home game for them. Navy's secondary features four returnees with starting experience. Their offensive line is also a seasoned strength. Ohio State opened as a 19-point favorite and I believe Navy is the play. Ohio State will probably wear down the Midshipmen late but they won't win by 20. If Keenan Reynolds is hot and Navy can get to Miller two or three times, an enormous upset could definitely happen.

                    Game 2 vs. Virginia Tech: The Hokies bring back 14 starters. They will feature an unknown at QB. I would grade their offensive line with a B+ but the strength of this roster is the secondary. They have two 1st round draft picks in the defensive backfield. VT will treat this game as if it were the National Championship. Ohio State will probably be an 11 to 13-point home favorite at kickoff. I have no opinion on the point-spread because VT could fold early. Or, Frank Beamer may call a sterling game and the Hokies may get a few lucky bounces and leave Columbus in victorious fashion.

                    Game 3 vs. Kent State: Kent State has a terrible QB and no chance of winning this game. Ohio State will be favored by five TDs, maybe a little more. Ohio State has not lost to an in-state foe in a century. Kent State will mount no offense while allowing Miller to rack up TDs. Ohio State should be 3-0 or 2-1 after this contest.

                    Game 4 vs. Cincinnati: Ohio State will benefit from a bye week in the lead up to Cincinnati. The Buckeyes will be heavily favored and with good reason. UC always has a shot to win games with a gambler like head coach Tommy Tuberville calling the shots. Cincinnati also has the #1 QB prospect from three years ago in Gunner Kiel, who originally signed with Notre Dame. Look for OSU to go to 3-1 or 4-0 after this contest. UC's lack of blocking power will allow Ohio State to stop them quickly and force plenty of 3-and-outs.

                    Game 5 at Maryland: I believe this is the key spot on the Buckeyes' schedule. Most pundits don’t have much faith in Maryland this season. I do. The Terrapins have a diamond in the rough in QB CJ Brown. In between injuries, he has shown moments of brilliance. Maryland also has three outstanding six-foot-plus WRs, all NFL prospects. Ohio State will not move the ball steadily against Maryland. The Terps have nine starters back on defense. Ohio State will go off as a slight road favorite here. Look for Maryland to beat OSU soundly by avoiding OSU's front four with quick slant passes. Randy Edsall will best Meyer here. Ohio State falls to 4-1 or 3-2.

                    Game 6 vs. Rutgers (Homecoming): Both teams will be coming off bye weeks. Rutgers returns 16 starters but they will be outclassed in Columbus on Homecoming. Nova, the unpredictable Rutgers QB, will not evade OSU front seven. Rutgers' front seven is very light for a Big Ten school. They will get pushed around all day. Take Ohio State here. The Buckeyes may be laying 23 at home but they'll cover. Ohio State moves to 5-1 or 4-2.

                    Game 7 at Penn State: This game will be played on Oct. 25 in Happy Valley. This could be an extremely tough spot for OSU and bad weather is always possible. A hostile crowd is guaranteed as OSU has excelled at PSU in its last three trips there. Ohio State scored 63 against PSU last year and this will motivate Penn State. Look for new head coach James Franklin to get his first signature win as PSU's boss in this contest. PSU gunslinger Christian Hackenberg will burn OSU's secondary. Ohio State goes to 5-2 or 4-3.

                    Game 8 vs. Illinois: Ohio State will put up a huge number against Illinois. The Buckeyes may not cover, but they will win this game easily. Last year Ohio State scored 60 but still didn't cover. (They won 60-35 as 34 point favorites). Ohio State goes to 6-2 or 5-3.

                    Game 9 at Michigan State: I believe Michigan State is going to beat Oregon on Sept. 6. This could very well make the Spartans front-runners for the college football playoff. A win over Ohio State will stamp the Spartans' ticket to the four-team playoff. Look for QB Connor Cook to outplay Braxton Miller and for the Spartans to beat Ohio State as soundly as they beat them in the Big Ten Championship Game last year. Ohio State goes to 6-3 or 5-4.

                    Game 10 at Minnesota: Urban Meyer will not allow his team to fold. They are four touchdowns better than Minnesota and will win this contest by roughly that margin. OSU goes to 7-3 or 6-4.

                    Game 11 vs. Indiana: Ohio State destroys Indiana on a yearly basis. This year's contest may be very high scoring. OSU will win by 15-20. The Sudfeld/Roberson duo at QB for Indiana will put up points but not enough to beat OSU. Ohio State moves to 8-3 or 7-4.

                    Game 12 vs. Michigan: Ohio State was favored by 16 in Ann Arbor last year and won by one point on the last play of the game. This Michigan club is better and they enter this game with revenge on its minds. Ohio State may be deflated by not having a shot at the playoff. They could be beaten at home. This game is a toss-up, leaving Ohio State either 9-3, 8-4, or 7-5 for the regular season.

                    My prediction is that Ohio State will win eight games, nine perhaps, at best, and that’s only if Braxton Miller doesn’t get hurt.

                    The only problem with this winning ticket is that you have to wait five months to cash it.
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      C-USA college football betting preview: Marshall mighty, but not smart money

                      Conference USA undergoes a facelift with three programs bailing for bigger and better things in the AAC and two new teams joining the ranks in 2014.

                      At the top of the C-USA sits Marshall, which is not only a big favorite to win the conference crown but also a sleeper Cinderella to sneak into the new four-team national title playoff system.

                      Marshall Thundering Herd (2013: 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS)

                      Odds to win conference: -200
                      Season win total: 10.5

                      Why bet the Thundering Herd: Marshall is the clear-cut favorite in C-USA East this season, and the favorites to win the overall conference championship. The Thundering Herd return 14 starters, including quarterback Rakeem Cato. They play an extremely easy schedule and there’s a real possibility they go undefeated in 2014.

                      Why not bet the Thundering Herd: It’s no secret that Marshall will be very good this season, and you’ll have to pay a tax to bet it. The Thundering Herd may be double-digit favorites in every game and there will likely be a spot or two to fade Marshall as the pointspreads get inflated.

                      Season win total pick: Over 10.5


                      UTSA Roadrunners (2013: 7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS)

                      Odds to win conference: +300
                      Season win total: 8.5

                      Why bet the Roadrunners: UTSA returns one of the most experienced teams in the country with 20 starters coming back. The Roadrunners have won 15 games over the last two seasons and they are set to breakout in 2014. Head coach Larry Coker won a national championship at Miami and has a great shot of getting the Roadrunners to the C-USA title game.

                      Why not bet the Roadrunners: Despite 20 returning starters, UTSA does not return its quarterback. Eric Soza was a three-year starter and his loss leaves a major hole to fill. The Roadrunners need to find a suitable replacement, but that’s not a given with inexperienced players battling for the all important QB spot.

                      Season win total pick: Over 8.5


                      North Texas Mean Green (2013: 9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS)

                      Odds to win conference: +500
                      Season win total: 8

                      Why bet the Mean Green: North Texas has a solid foundation with this being head coach Dan McCarney’s fourth year on the job. The Mean Green possess a strong offensive line and their ability to run the ball and control the clock may be enough to keep them competitive.

                      Why not bet the Mean Green: The team had a breakout season in 2013 when it went 9-4 and won the Heart of Dallas Bowl. But North Texas will be hard-pressed to repeat last year’s success as it returns just nine starters while playing a tough schedule with five of its final eight games on the road.

                      Season win total pick: Under 8


                      Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2013: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)

                      Odds to win conference: +750
                      Season win total: 7.5

                      Why bet the Blue Raiders: Middle Tennessee has been a solid team over the last two years, winning eight games each season. It wouldn’t be a stretch for it to repeat that success in 2014, especially since it will have one of the best defenses in the conference.

                      Why not bet the Blue Raiders: Offense. MTU returns just five starters on offense and the quarterback situation is up for grabs. Head coach Rick Stockstill said he won’t name a starter until the Friday before the season opener and that doesn’t show much confidence in the players battling for the job.

                      Season win total pick: Under 7.5


                      Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2013: 8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS)

                      Odds to win conference: +1,000
                      Season win total: 7

                      Why bet the Hilltoppers: Western Kentucky’s offense projects to be explosive this season with eight starters returning, including QB Brandon Doughty. The new head coach is Jeff Brohm, who was the offensive coordinator last year, so the transition should be a bit smoother than normal.

                      Why not bet the Hilltoppers: The team is in flux right now with their third new head coach in three years and moving from the Sun Belt to C-USA. The defense also figures to regress sharply with just four starters returning. Western Kentucky lost conference players of the year on both offense and defense to graduation. That leaves the Hilltoppers without their best players on both sides of the ball.

                      Season win total pick: Under 7


                      Rice Owls (2013: 10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS)

                      Odds to win conference: +1,500
                      Season win total: 6.5

                      Why bet the Owls: Rice won the C-USA title last season, so it comes into 2014 with a lot of momentum. The Owls return only 12 starters but they have an experienced roster overall. Rice’s best attribute is its running game and its ability to possess the ball and control the clock make the Owls very competitive in this conference.

                      Why not bet the Owls: It’s hard to envision Rice repeating the 10-win season of 2013. Rice’s defense also tends to get overwhelmed by strong offenses and that will be the case once again this season. The Owls also must keep QB Driphus Jackson healthy because if he goes down, the season is likely doomed.

                      Season win total pick: Over 6.5


                      Florida Atlantic Owls (2013: 6-6 SU, 9-3 ATS)

                      Odds to win conference: +2,500
                      Season win total: 5.5

                      Why bet the Owls: The team showed a tremendous amount of resiliency after its head coach and defensive coordinator quit midseason. Florida Atlantic won its last four games, so that was positive momentum heading into the offseason. Only 11 starters return, but the Owls could surprise in 2014.

                      Why not bet the Owls: Florida Atlantic has major question marks along its offensive and defensive lines coming into this season. The Owls lost a total of six starters on those two units, so the line of scrimmage is a big area of concern. The schedule is also tough with their strongest opponents all coming on the road.

                      Season win total pick: Over 5.5


                      Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2013: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)

                      Odds to win conference: +2,500
                      Season win total: 5.5

                      Why bet the Bulldogs: Louisiana Tech should improve in its second year under head coach Skip Holtz. The Bulldogs also have a new defensive coordinator, Manny Diaz, who did good things at Texas and Mississippi State. The stop unit projects to be very good this year and that makes Louisiana Tech a sleeper in C-USA.

                      Why not bet the Bulldogs: Last season, Louisiana Tech relied too heavily on running back Kenneth Dixon. The quarterbacks were terrible in 2013 and the Bulldogs must get better production from that unit. The early schedule is brutal with four of their first five games on the road, including non-conference trips to Oklahoma and Auburn.

                      Season win total pick: Over 5.5


                      Old Dominion Monarchs (2013: 8-4 SU, 3-3 ATS)

                      Odds to win conference: +7,500
                      Season win total: 5

                      Why bet the Monarchs: Old Dominion is making the jump from FCS to FBS this season. The Monarchs return 17 starters from their eight-win team of 2013, so a successful transition isn’t out of the question, especially since they possess a potent offense that has averaged 36.7 points per game or more over the last three seasons.

                      Why not bet the Monarchs: With the move up in divisions, Old Dominion will face stronger opponents week in and week out. And that’s not a good thing for a poor defense. Over the last two seasons, Old Dominion has allowed an average of 32.3 points and 436 yards of offense per game.

                      Season win total pick: Over 5


                      UTEP Miners (2013: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS)

                      Odds to win conference: +15,000
                      Season win total: 4

                      Why bet the Miners: UTEP returns 15 starters in 2014 and the Miners will be in the second year of head coach Sean Kugler’s system. The team is built to be a physical running team and if the change in style takes another step forward, UTEP could be a litter better this season.

                      Why not bet the Miners: There’s still a lot of work ahead of UTEP, especially its implemented 4-2-5 defensive scheme. The defensive line is a key element for that type of defense, but the Miners will have three new starters along the line. The schedule will be difficult to navigate and while UTEP is better than last year, it may not be reflected in the win/loss column.

                      Season win total pick: Under 4


                      Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (2013: 1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS)

                      Odds to win conference: +20,000
                      Season win total: 3

                      Why bet the Golden Eagles: There’s nowhere to go but up for Southern Miss in 2014 and big improvement is expected. The Golden Eagles return 16 starters and they will be in the second year of head coach Todd Monken’s system. Injuries decimated this team last season but if they stay healthy, they could pull a big upset or two.

                      Why not bet the Golden Eagles: Southern Miss is an ugly 1-23 SU over the last two years. The offense has been pitiful while only averaging 18.4 points per game and the defense has been a sieve, allowing 39.9 points per game during the long losing slump. The Golden Eagles are also minus-35 in turnover differential the last two years. It’s tough to back a losing team like Southern Miss until it shows improvement on the field.

                      Season win total pick: Over 3


                      UAB Blazers (2013: 2-10 SU, 4-8 ATS)

                      Odds to win conference: +25,000
                      Season win total: 2.5

                      Why bet the Blazers: Sometimes a new voice and a different perspective can change the fortune of a team, and that’s what UAB hopes will happen. The Blazers return 15 starters from a team that was competitive at times last season. UAB has underachieved in recent years, so maybe this is the year it can turn things around.

                      Why not bet the Blazers: UAB has won three games or less in each of the last three seasons. With new head coach Bill Clark short on experience (Jackson State last year), expectations are extremely low for the Blazers once again. Unless the defense shows significant improvement, UAB will repeat what it’s done over the last three years.

                      Season win total pick: Under 2.5


                      Florida International Golden Panthers (2013: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)

                      Odds to win conference: +30,000
                      Season win total: 2

                      Why bet the Golden Panthers: Florida International was embarrassingly bad in head coach Ron Turner’s first season. However, with 17 returning starters, the Panthers have the experience to improve in 2014. The early schedule is favorable with their first four games at home, including a pair of FCS opponents to begin the season.

                      Why not bet the Golden Panthers: They lost by an average of 27 points per game last season, so they were hardly competitive. Florida International’s offense averaged a ridiculously low 9.8 points per game in 2013 and they were shutout three times.

                      Season win total pick: Over 2
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Find NCAAF betting value in these injury-plagued teams on the mend

                        Sometimes last season’s stats and records can be skewed, especially when it comes to teams that suffered through a rash of injuries.

                        With oddsmakers discounting those programs based on 2013’s output,and key players getting healthy, these teams can quietly provide extra betting value in the early goings of the 2014 college football schedule.

                        We look at four now-healthy teams giving their backers a boost with the returning of key talents:

                        Florida Gators (4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)

                        In 2013, the Gators were the poster child for injuries. They lost 17 players to season-ending injuries. Former five-star recruit, QB Jeff Driskel returns to redeem himself under new offensive coordinator Kurt Roper.

                        Also on offense, the Gators get back three potential offensive line starters (DJ Humphries, Tyler Moore and Chaz Green) and WR Andre Debose (led Gators in receiving TDs in 2011). Despite the injuries, the defense was still among the best in the SEC and will only get better with the return of LB Antonio Morrison.

                        Maryland Terrapins (7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

                        Since Randy Edsall took over, he hasn't been able to play with a full deck. Despite the injuries, Maryland has improved every year under Edsall. On offense, getting star wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Deon Long back will give Big Ten defenses fits.

                        On defense, corner Jeremiah Johnson returns from missing all but two games. The linebacker corps should also be healthier as they had to dig down into the third string at times last season. The Terps’ stop unit should tighten up after allowing 25.3 points per game last year.


                        California Golden Bears (1-11 SU, 2-10 ATS)

                        After going 9-3 at Louisiana Tech, Sonny Dykes 1-11 debut was the stuff of nightmares. In addition to losing over 50 starts to injury, the Golden Bears were also extremely young.

                        The defense gave up the most plays for over 20 yards in the FBS last season and one of the reasons was injuries. Defensive end Brennan Scarlett, safety Avery Sebastian and cornerback Stefan McClure all return from injury, hoping to erase the 45.9 points per game allowed by Cal in 2013.


                        Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS)

                        Southern Miss has won just one game in the last two years, going 6-18 ATS in that span. In Todd Monken's debut season in 2013, the Eagles were ravaged by injuries, mustering an average of only 17.1 points while giving up almost 42 points per game.

                        The defense should be the strength of this team in 2014 and it will be spurred by the returns of NT Rakeem Nunez-Roches and LB Alan Howze.
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

                          Over/under win totals for some college football teams........

                          11-- Florida State, Alabama, Oregon, Oklahoma, Ohio State

                          10-- South Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Baylor, Boise State, UCLA

                          9-- Auburn, LSU, Stanford, USC, Georgia, Clemson, Iowa

                          8-- Arizona State, Duke, Louisville, Miami, Michigan, Notre Dame

                          7-- North Carolina, Texas A&M

                          6-- Nevada.........4-- UNLV
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            MAC college football betting preview: Coaching changes, QB swaps headline Mid-American

                            In the calendar years of 2011 and 2012, the MAC went a combined 7-4 SU and 6-5 ATS in bowl games. It has since lost seven straight bowls (0-7 ATS), including five last season.

                            Bowling Green is the clear favorite to win the conference this time around while also giving the MAC its best chance for a bowl win. But there are plenty of other postseason contenders.

                            Akron Zips (2013: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)

                            Odds to win conference: +2,500
                            Season win total: 4.5

                            Why bet the Zips: The Zips won only six games combined in the four years prior to last season, when they suddenly improved enough for a five-win campaign. Quarterback Kyle Pohl and running back Jawon Chisholm are an experienced duo. The defensive will be inexperienced, but it’s hard to bet against veteran coordinator Chuck Amato.

                            Why not bet the Zips: Akron has stumbled through eight consecutive losing seasons. Both of last year’s starting cornerbacks are gone and only one starter on the defensive line returns. Three starting offensive linemen have departed, which could be problematic in front of a QB who has been error-prone in the past.

                            Season win total pick: Over 4.5.


                            Ball State Cardinals (2013: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)

                            Odds to win conference: +1,500
                            Season win total: 8.5

                            Why bet the Cardinals: Ball State has improved its season win total in every one of the four years with head coach Pete Lembo at the helm. The running game will be featured more prominently in 2014 and that’s a good thing. Jahwan Edwards is the school’s all-time leader in touchdown runs and needs just 697 yards to set Ball State’s rushing record.

                            Why not bet the Cardinals: Four-year starting quarterback Keith Wenning is gone. So too are three of the Cardinals’ top four receivers. Willie Snead (106 catches, 1,516 yards, 15 TDs) left for the NFL after his junior campaign. Only one starter on the defensive line is returning.

                            Season win total pick: Under 8.5


                            Bowling Green Falcons (2013: 10-4 SU, 10-4 ATS)

                            Odds to win conference: +125
                            Season win total: 9.5

                            Why bet the Falcons: Dino Babers is in as head coach after being at the helm of the leading offense in the FCS last season (Eastern Illinois averaged 589.5 YPG and 48.2 PPG). Junior quarterback Matt Johnson (3,467 passing yards, 25 touchdowns in 2013) should be one of the beneficiaries. Bowling Green’s defense led the MAC in fewest points allowed last season.

                            Why not bet the Falcons: The drawback of a first conference championship in 21 years is losing a head coach. Dave Clawson departed for Wake Forest. Three of the four starters in the secondary must be replaced. The interior of the defensive line is also a slight question mark.

                            Season win total pick: Over 9.5


                            Buffalo Bulls (2013: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

                            Odds to win conference: +2,500
                            Season win total: 7.5

                            Why bet the Bulls: Although they lost a few key offensive players, the Bulls return eight starters on that side of the ball, including QB Joe Licata. The offensive line, which brings back all five of its starters, could be the best in the conference. A soft early-season schedule could foster confidence.

                            Why not bet the Bulls: Buffalo must try to replace MAC Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack and the school’s all-time leading rusher, Branden Oliver. Even beyond Mack, the front seven is depleted. Under head coach Jeff Quinn, the Bulls are 4-27 SU and 8-22-1 ATS against opponents with winning percentages greater than .250.

                            Season win total pick: Under 7.5.


                            Central Michigan Chippewas (2013: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

                            Odds to win conference: +3,000
                            Season win total: 5.5

                            Why bet the Chippewas: The Chippewas open with a weak schedule that includes real opportunities for major-conference wins (vs. Purdue and Kansas). Quarterback Cody Kater is back after missing most of 2013 with a broken collarbone. Wide receiver Titus Davis opted against the NFL. A total of 18 starters return.

                            Why not bet the Chippewas: Under head coach Dan Enos, the Chippewas are 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS against winning MAC opponents. In 2013, four of their five conference wins came against teams that were either 0-8 or 1-7 in the MAC. A potential quarterback controversy could become a problem.

                            Season win total pick: Over 5.5.


                            Eastern Michigan Eagles (2013: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS)

                            Odds to win conference: +10,000
                            Season win total: 2.5

                            Why bet the Eagles: Chris Creighton boasts an overall record of 139-46 as a head coach, albeit with no experience at the FBS level. Running back Bronson Hill is back after recording the first 1,000-yard season for Eastern Michigan in a decade. The team’s four leading pass-catchers are all returning.

                            Why not bet the Eagles: A new coaching regime is in, which could be a good thing in the long run but will signal a transition period right now. The Eagles gave up an average of 510.8 yards and 45.2 points per game in 2013. They have recorded only one winning season since 1990 (6-5 in 1995).

                            Season win total pick: Under 2.5


                            Kent State Golden Flashes (2013: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)

                            Odds to win conference: +1,500
                            Season win total: 5.5

                            Why bet the Golden Flashes: Quarterback Colin Reardon has a year of starting experience under his belt and he will still have 2013 leading pass-catcher Chris Humphrey and leading rusher Trayion Durham at his disposal. The Golden Flashes boast a solid duo at linebacker in Matt Dellinger and DeVante’ Strickland.

                            Why not bet the Golden Flashes: Kent State went 11-3 in 2012 under Darrell Hazell but compiled a 4-8 mark in Paul Haynes’ first year at the helm. The Golden Flashes are one of only two MAC teams, along with UMass, without an FCS opponent on the schedule. On defense, the line will need almost a complete overhaul.

                            Season win total pick: Under 5.5


                            Massachusetts Minutemen (2013: 1-11 SU, 5-7 ATS)

                            Odds to win conference: +10,000
                            Season win total: 1.5

                            Why bet the Minutemen: Mark Whipple is back on board as head coach, 11 years after his first stint with the Minutemen, during which he won 49 games in six seasons. He will have options at quarterback with sophomore A.J. Doyle and also Blake Frohnapfel, who transferred from Marshall. The Minutemen are leaving the MAC in 2015 so they will be inspired to go out with some sort of bang.

                            Why not bet the Minutemen: Massachusetts is coming off back-to-back 1-11 campaigns in which the one win came against a team that went winless in the MAC. The defensive line is in shambles and there’s no depth to speak of aside from maybe at quarterback.

                            Season win total pick: Under 1.5.


                            Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (2013: 0-12 SU, 3-9 ATS)

                            Odds to win conference: +7,500
                            Season win total: 1.5

                            Why bet the Redhawks: The good news is that it can’t get any worse. But will it get better? Former Notre Dame offensive coordinator Chuck Martin is in as head coach. Fifteen starters return, which is not necessarily a great thing but at least the Redhawks will have some experience.

                            Why not bet the Redhawks: Miami (Ohio) has posted three losing seasons in a row, including a bagel last year. Don Treadwell is out, so the Redhawks will have to adjust to a new coaching staff. The 2013 team was dead last in the nation in red-zone offense, second worst in third-down conversions, and third worst in sacks allowed.

                            Season win total pick: Under 1.5.


                            Northern Illinois Huskies (2013: 12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS)

                            Odds to win conference: +250
                            Season win total: 8.5

                            Why bet the Huskies: Northern Illinois is loaded at running back with Cameron Stingily and Akeem Daniels. The Huskies also boast a talented receiver duo in Da’Ron Brown and Tommylee Lewis. They are 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games.

                            Why not bet the Huskies: Quarterback Jordan Lynch, who finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting, is gone. The defensive line and secondary also have to be rebuilt. A relatively young team will get a trial by fire with early road dates at Northwestern, UNLV, and Arkansas.

                            Season win total pick: Over 8.5.


                            Ohio Bobcats (2013: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)

                            Odds to win conference: +2,500
                            Season win total: 5.5

                            Why bet the Bobcats: The Bobcats have been consistent winners under former Nebraska head coach Frank Solich, with five consecutive bowl trips. They return seven starters on defense and will be extremely deep in their front seven.

                            Why not bet the Bobcats: Ohio will need an overhaul on offense following the departure of a star quarterback, two top rushers, five of the top six receivers, and three offensive linemen. Quarterback Tyler Tettleton and RB Beau Blankenship were the team’s undisputed leaders the past few years but are now gone.

                            Season win total pick: Under 5.5


                            Toledo Rockets (2013: 7-5 SU, 7-4-1 ATS)

                            Odds to win conference: +250
                            Season win total: 8.5

                            Why bet the Rockets: Sixteen starters - including six all-MAC performers - are returning. The Rockets should be dominant in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Kicker Jeremiah Detmer, a Lou Groza Award finalist last season, has converted 36 of 37 field goal attempts over the past two years.

                            Why not bet the Rockets: Experience will not necessarily mean success on the defensive side of the ball. Toledo allowed more than 420 yards per game last season. Former quarterback Terrance Owens is one of the few starters that have to be replaced.

                            Season win total pick: Over 8.5


                            Western Michigan Broncos (2013: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)

                            Odds to win conference: +4,000
                            Season win total: 3.5

                            Why bet the Broncos: Head coach P.J. Fleck has a year under his belt and probably won’t be as overconfident as he was heading into the 2013 campaign. He brought in a stellar recruiting class more heralded than a handful of Big Ten teams. All-MAC senior cornerback Donald Celiscar headlines an experienced and likely outstanding secondary.

                            Why not bet the Broncos: Western Michigan won only one game last season and it came via a 31-30 decision after Massachusetts botched a two-point conversion attempt. Freshmen are expected to compete for just about every single starting position on the offensive side of the ball.

                            Season win total pick: Under 3.5
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Top Big Ten QB's

                              July 30, 2014

                              1. Braxton Miller - Ohio State
                              Miller was the class of the Big Ten last year, finishing with 2,094 pass yards (63.5%), 24 pass TD, and only 7 INT. He also rushed for 1,068 yards (6.2 YPC) and 12 TD. He would've been a top Heisman candidate if he hadn't missed the better part of two games early in the season with an injury. There is still quite a bit of unfinished business for the senior at OSU. Despite gaudy numbers and two undefeated regular seasons in a row, he has yet to lead the Buckeyes to a Big Ten title or a bowl win. Another year under Urban Meyer should prove beneficial for the dual-threat quarterback, as will having his top three receivers back from 2013. Ohio State will open the season as one of the favorites to advance to the new College Football Playoff, and Miller will be one of the top Heisman hopefuls. Expect a big season.
                              Stock: Hold

                              2. Christian Hackenberg - Penn State
                              Surprised he's No. 2 on this list? Don't be. Hackenberg put together one of the best freshman performances in the nation last season, throwing for 2,955 yards (58.9%) and 20 TD's in the Nittany Lions' 12 games. His 246.3 passing YPG ranks him second in terms of returning quarterbacks in the Big Ten. He closed out the season on a high-note, with 339 yards (70%) with 4 TD and 0 INT in a win at Wisconsin - a notable victory considering very few road teams come away with a victory in Madison. PSU is going through a coaching change from Bill O'Brien to James Franklin. Franklin has worked wonders with overachieving quarterbacks in his years at Vanderbilt, and we expect that to translate well in State College. We expect that Hackenberg will only get better with a year's worth of experience and to improve on his stellar 2013 numbers.
                              Stock: Buy

                              3. Connor Cook - Michigan State
                              Arguably no quarterback in the nation silenced his critics more than Cook in 2013. Cook split time with Andrew Maxwell through the first four weeks of the season and stated publicly that he was upset that he didn't get snaps in crunch time during the 17-13 loss to Notre Dame. He got his wish and took sole possession of the starting gig from Week 5 on and he never looked back. Cook finished with 22 TD and only 6 INT, leading Michigan State to a Big Ten championship and Rose Bowl win, earning MVP honors in both games. The Spartans' receiving corps has a few question marks heading into the season and it never has been a team strength, but Cook made due last season and we don't expect any fall-off from last season's remarkable production.
                              Stock: Buy

                              4. C.J. Brown - Maryland
                              Brown is back for yet another season at Maryland as a sixth-year senior after receiving a medical waiver last spring in the wake on an injury that cause him to miss 2012. Brown started hot, throwing for 210+ yards in each of the first four games with 7 TD and just 1 INT. An early injury against Florida State in the fifth game caused him to miss two full games and better parts of two others and he was never the same player after that, finishing with just 6 TD and 6 INT over the final seven games. In his defense, he lost his two top receivers, Stefon Diggs and Deon Long, to injury in the same game on October 19th. Brown will need to improve his accuracy a bit, but with Diggs and Long returning, giving the Terps their top five pass-catchers back from 2013, this passing attack could be one of the top units in the Big Ten.
                              Stock: Buy

                              5. Nate Sudfeld - Indiana
                              With Tre Roberson transferring to Illinois State this summer, Nate Sudfeld will be the main main at Indiana. Sudfeld is more of a pocket-passer, amassing 21 TD and just 9 INT last year while averaging 210 pass yards per game in 2013. These two split time under center in 2013 with great results, Sudfeld airing it out and Roberson leading the way with his feet. The Hoosiers offense ranked 10th in total yards, 17th in pass yards, and 16th in scoring. Now if only that defense would show up once in a while.
                              Stock: Hold

                              6. Trevor Siemian - Northwestern
                              While battling injuries and sharing time with Kain Colter last season, Siemian got uneven results. He finished with 2,143 yards (59.7%) with 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions. This season, he's the only quarterback remaining on the Northwestern roster to have actually completed a pass. He doesn’t have much of a dual-threat ability as he rushed for just 33 yards last season and that could present a problem for the Wildcats as they would bring in Kain Colter to add that dimension to the offense in season’s past. But with three of his top four receiving threats from 2013 returning, we expect Northwestern becomes more of a passing team in 2014. Off the field, he has voiced his opposition to the players’ union at Northwestern, which is interesting as he is a leader in the locker room and that could become an issue with other players that support it. But for now, we expect a strong season from Siemian.
                              Stock: Buy

                              7: Devin Gardner - Michigan
                              Gardner didn’t get a lot of help from his running backs or offensive line last year, leading to some uneven performances. Still, he is capable of putting up huge numbers as evidenced in games against Notre Dame (294 yards, 4 TD), Indiana (503 yards, 2 TD), and Ohio State (451, 4 TD). Now his two best linemen from 2013 are gone and the unit remains a bit of a question mark. During spring, he was still recovering from a broken foot suffered against OSU that caused him to miss the bowl game and that allowed backup Shane Morris to garner more attention as a possible replacement. Despite losing five of the last six games in 2013, Gardner has the most experience on the roster and has the dual-threat ability that should keep him #1 on the depth chart. But if things start to go south in Ann Arbor, don’t be surprised if coach Hoke starts giving Morris more looks.
                              Stock: Hold

                              8. Joel Stave - Wisconsin
                              With RB Gordon and four of five returning offensive linemen back from 2013, whoever wins the starting QB spot in Madison is in a good position to succeed. The leader on the depth chart right now is Joel Stave. Stave had a decent 2013 campaign and would figure to be higher on this list, but we're not convinced that he will absolutely be the starter for the Badgers this fall. Speaking to team insiders, coach Anderson favors backup QB Tanner McEvoy's dual-threat ability over Stave's pocket-passing style. We're also concerned that whoever takes the QB job in Madison won't have a ton of options in the receiving corps now that WR Jared Abbrederis has departed. Stave might not be on this list by season's end.
                              Stock: Sell

                              9. Jake Rudock - Iowa
                              Rudock returns for his redshirt sophomore season after a solid 2013 campaign in which he threw for 2,383 yards (59%) with 18 TD and 13 INT. He is not likely to make any "wow" plays but is the prototypical Iowa quarterback. The numbers will never wow you with Rudock, but he can develop into a quality game-manager. He'll need to get better in the "big" games as he completed less than 54% with just 6 TD and 7 INT in Iowa's five losses last season. If Iowa wants to make the jump into the top-tier of the Big Ten, it starts with a better season from Jake Rudock.
                              Stock: Hold

                              10. Wes Lunt - Illinois
                              Lunt is still a bit of an unknown. He transferred from Oklahoma State after the 2012 season and had to sit out last fall due to NCAA transfer rules. Lunt threw for 1,108 yards (61.8%) with 6 TD and 7 INT in limited duty as a freshman at OK State and now looks to take over an offense in complete overhaul. He's not guaranteed the starting spot but he has just as much, if not more, experience than his two competitors, Aaron Bailey and Reilly O'Toole (combined 21 pass attempts last season) despite sitting out an entire season. He has favorable size (6'5" 210 lbs) and a live arm and could turn a few heads. We'll have to see a bit more of him before he rises on this list, but for now we like his potential.
                              Stock: Buy
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                              • #30
                                Week 1 Clashes

                                July 30, 2014

                                The start of the college football season is less than a month away and the opening weekend features a number of big games between the five major conferences. Here is a look at some of the big major conference matchups to start the season, some of which could have major consequences for the season.

                                With the new playoff system in place, there may be less pressure on the top teams to deliver a perfect season, but the inter-conference clashes may be more critical as the selection committee will need to evaluate the conference strengths side-by-side and at least one of the big five conferences will be left out. Here is a look at the opening weekend games between major conference foes that could directly or indirectly have an impact for the committee in December.

                                Rutgers vs. Washington State (Seattle): Absolutely no one is projecting either of these teams to be in the national title picture or even the Top 25, but this will be the first of five Big Ten vs. Pac-12 matchups of the season. While the Michigan State/Oregon game in Week 2 will be the game with serious implications, if one conference delivers a decisive 4-1 or 5-0 edge in the conference matchups, it could help to sway the committee if a one-loss Pac-12 champion is pitted up a against a one-loss Big Ten champion for the last playoff spot, actually a very realistic scenario. This Thursday night game is in Seattle, which has been far from a home-away-from-home for Washington State, as they have been blown out the past three seasons in the Emerald City games. Both of these teams went 6-7 last season after bowl defeats and both teams have coaches in their third seasons.

                                The similarities end there as Rutgers has been known for a stout rush defense, but an erratic offense while Washington State rarely runs the ball and plays track-meet style games. Rutgers is considered additional dead weight by many Big Ten supporters, but a significant non-conference win away from home would certainly provide a boost to the overall strength of the conference now with Rutgers and Maryland joining this season. It would be a big blow to the Pac-12 and this could be the swing game in the Big Ten/Pac-12 series with likely fairly substantial favoritism projecting a split in the remaining four games between the conferences.

                                UCLA at Virginia: The bigger non-conference game for UCLA will be with Texas in Arlington in two weeks, but many see the Bruins as a serious threat in the Pac-12, not just to return to the Pac-12 title game for the third time in four seasons, but to even play into the national conversation. UCLA has a very challenging schedule, but this is a loaded team with nearly the complete starting roster back from last season’s 10-3 team. UCLA crushed Virginia Tech from the ACC in the Sun Bowl last season with a 42-12 win and Virginia is not expected to be a great threat in 2014 coming off an ugly 2013 season in which the Cavaliers went 2-10. This is a veteran Virginia team with a lot of experience and the cross-country travel and early start time on the east coast could provide some advantages for the host. Virginia lost 59-10 at home last season against Oregon in a matchup vs. one of the Pac-12’s elite teams.

                                In fairness, UCLA fared no better against the Ducks with a 42-12 loss in Eugene last season and the statistics for Virginia and UCLA were nearly identical in that difficult matchup. With Florida State carrying the hopes of the ACC and sitting with a great shot to go undefeated again, this is not an overly meaningful game for the conference. A UCLA loss would be a big blow to the Pac-12, but as the opening spread will suggest, that would be a substantial upset.

                                California at Northwestern: These teams opened up the 2013 season in Berekley with Northwestern winning 44-30. It was a much closer game than the two touchdown margin suggests as the game was tied in the fourth quarter before Northwestern pulled away. California actually had more yards in the game and this will be a big game for both teams. Northwestern is coming off a disappointing season filled with close losses, so starting the season with positive momentum will be critical. California won just one game last season, but this was a competitive team that averaged over 450 yards per game on offense.

                                This is really a game that Big Ten cannot afford to lose at it would be very damaging for comparison arguments by season’s end, as Northwestern figures to be one of the better teams in the Big Ten West, and actually a legitimate contender. California with a brutal schedule is not expected to compete well after going 0-9 in the Pac-12 last season. Even if California is greatly improved, it is a program that won’t likely get consistent enough results to find the postseason considering how tough the Pac-12 North looks and with a non-conference game with BYU still ahead as well.

                                Alabama vs. West Virginia (Atlanta): It is not likely to be a great opening weekend for the Big XII, projected by some to be the conference most likely to be left out of the national playoff if they fail to produce an undefeated team as they won’t benefit from a conference championship game. The Big XII plays a nine-game conference schedule which has taken a toll in recent years as every recent championship contender has suffered a late season loss. West Virginia has an impossible opening task, but a respectable showing in a loss could go a long way to help the perception of the Big XII. Alabama has delivered dominant early season wins over Big Ten and ACC teams in recent seasons and that helped to push one-loss SEC teams to the top of the pile in the BCS pecking order in previous seasons.

                                Alabama is a national title contender, but this is a team with few returning starters and big shoes to fill with many 2014 NFL draft picks departing the roster. After a stunning 4-8 season in 2013, West Virginia has some pressure to rebound this season in the fourth season for Dana Holgorsen. The 70-33 Orange Bowl win after the 2011 season only carries so much weight two disappointing seasons later in what has been a difficult adjustment to the Big XII. It would be a stunning upset if West Virginia won, but Alabama has been upset in its last two games, losing as double-digit favorites to both Auburn and Oklahoma to close last season.

                                Clemson at Georgia: Now for the games with serious implications in the opening weekend. Last season, Clemson’s win over Georgia helped the Tigers secure an Orange Bowl spot despite getting blasted by Florida State and South Carolina later in the season. It was a great opening weekend game with Clemson winning 38-35, holding on despite allowing 545 yards to the Bulldogs. While everyone expects Florida State to win the ACC title again, Clemson could make a case for one of the six major bowl spots even in a runner-up position in the ACC Atlantic, as they did last season. Should Clemson take out Georgia, it would also boost the standing of the ACC if the champion of the conference wound up with a loss and was not a sure-thing for one of the four national playoff spots.

                                The implications of the opener are huge for Georgia, but less so for the SEC. The conference has done enough to be sure that they will have one of the four national playoff spots in any scenario and probably can make a case for two spots in several other scenarios. In the six major bowls, there are no longer limits on teams from each conference, so Georgia could have a favorable path to a major bowl for the first time since the 2007 Sugar Bowl if they win this game, even if they are not able to capture the SEC East title. Both teams have a lot of talent back on defense, but have unproven quarterbacks and this could be another exciting opening game with big stakes.

                                Florida State vs. Oklahoma State (Arlington): The Big XII will get the first chance to end the undefeated run for Florida State, but this year’s Cowboys squad looks much less equipped to deliver a big win than several of the teams the past few seasons in Stillwater. This opener in Arlington will provide a more favorable venue for Oklahoma State, but while Florida State is loaded with experience, the Cowboys are in a bit of a rebuilding year with only eight starters back in action. Oklahoma State passed a big test to open last season with a 21-3 win over Mississippi State, but this will be a much tougher task. If Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston gets suspended that could open up the opportunity for Oklahoma State, but ultimately this is likely going to be too touch of a test for the Big XII to earn many ‘points’ in comparison arguments against the ACC.

                                A Florida State loss would be a national game-changer and while a respectable showing from Oklahoma State will help the Big XII, it does not appear to be a year where the Cowboys will be carrying the flag for the conference. Florida State will face a schedule with more weight this season so the Seminoles could actually lose this game and still wind up in the national playoff if they win out and take the ACC title as it would be hard to leave out the defending national champion as a one-loss conference champion even if it becomes a down year for the ACC.

                                Wisconsin vs. LSU (Houston): Neither LSU or Wisconsin looks like a serious national title contender, but both are among the fringe contenders where it would not be shocking for either team to make the national playoff. This will likely serve as an elimination game in that regard as while the loser could still get there if they run the table the rest of the way with a conference championship, they might not have enough to get to a major bowl with two losses. The winner, meanwhile, will likely immediately emerge as a Top 10 team with a real shot to stay in the national mix all season. LSU is very young this season, but talent-rich as usual, coming off a 10-3 season. The 2013 Tigers were the worst defensive team that Les Miles has produced in many seasons and the key matchup in this game will be the LSU defense against the Wisconsin rushing attack. Neither team appears poised to make big plays in the air in this opener with depleted receiving corps on both sides and unclear quarterback situations, but both defenses could have some vulnerability.

                                Wisconsin failed in the Capital One Bowl last season against South Carolina of the SEC for a fourth consecutive bowl loss and this is a program in dire need of a marquee win outside of the conference. After impressive defensive numbers last season, Wisconsin will have to replace a great deal of key players and it may be the LSU running game that has a big day despite the focus on Heisman candidate Melvin Gordon for Wisconsin. This game would go a huge way for the Big Ten especially after many notable Big Ten vs. SEC defeats in recent seasons and while it would be a damaging loss for LSU, the SEC has plenty of teams in line to emerge in contention for the playoff picture.
                                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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