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**wayne1218** · 06-11-2014, 06:55 PM

EXPERT PICKS

SEAN MARTIN,
Events Editor
Bubba Watson halfway to the Grand Slam? It could happen.

D.J. PIEHOWSKI,
Digital Producer
Kuchar In my handmade Total Driving/Scrambling stat, these are the four that stick out. Everyone will miss fairways and greens this week. These guys handle it better than anyone.

RYAN SMITHSON,
Site Producer
Mickelson Great setup for Phil, especially if it gets muddy. I am down to four starts with Rory, but I can't bench him at a major.

ROB BOLTON,
Fantasy Columnist
Scott The U.S. Open is supposed to reveal the player that has it all and we’re supposed to narrow that down to four. Godspeed.

ANNE DETLEFSEN,
Site Producer
Mickelson It would be such a great story! He looked on the upswing in Memphis. This could be the year.

BRYAN MULLEN,
Site Producer
Stricker Stricker is trending nicely. He's coming off a T13 at THE PLAYERS and a T6 at the Memorial. Finished T8 last year at Merion.

CHRIS DUNHAM,
Site Producer
Dustin Johnson This is not the week to get cute. A 7,500-yard major layout with bunkers everywhere? I seem to remember DJ almost winning on a course like that in 2010.

MIKE McALLISTER,
Managing Editor
Els Hard to ignore Els' track record at the U.S. Open. Two wins early in his career, and three top-10s in his last four starts. And he seems to be playing better lately.

BILL COONEY,
Site Producer
Kuchar Suspenseless but superb. That type of game wins the U.S. Open. Put three of my picks in that category. Rory will have to make a ton of birdies to offset mistakes. Kuchar is due for a major.

JOHN SWANTEK,
Host, LIVE@
Kuchar He fits the profile of a U.S. Open champion perfectly, yet there's been a missing ingredient. I think he took last week off to figure out what it was.

HELEN ROSS,
Chief of Correspondents
Mickelson Maybe it's too much to ask but to see him complete the Grand Slam where his run of six U.S. runner-up finishes started would be spectacular.

BRIAN WACKER,
Staff writer
McIlroy Forget the 78 at Muirfield Village. It happens. McIlroy's game is made for a place like Pinehurst, and his game is certainly trending the right direction.

AMANDA BALIONIS,
Host, Trending on TOUR
Spieth Because really, this would be a great story. Spieth has 13 top 20's this season and said early week he's loving this course.. I believe him.

**wayne1218** · 06-11-2014, 07:00 PM

This week marks the 31st event of the 2013-14 PGA Tour season, as players head to Pinehurst No. 2 for the U.S. Open. Each week, a panel of experts will offer up their picks from four groups of players, based on Golf Channel's fantasy game, Fantasy Challenge. We will also keep track of their scores and standings. The panel includes: senior writers Rex Hoggard, Randall Mell and Jason Sobel; contributors John Hawkins and John Antonini; editorial director Jay Coffin; 'Morning Drive' host Gary Williams; staff writer Ryan Lavner and defending fantasy champion Charlie Rymer.

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Rex Hoggard

Group 1: Adam Scott: He may have arrived at the world's top ranking from his couch, but Scott has proven to be a world-beater since that landmark event, with a win at the Crowne Plaza Invitational and a tie for fourth at the Memorial.

Group 2: Steve Stricker: The part-time player has taken a little longer to play his way into game shape this season, but following a tie for sixth at the Memorial he seems to have finally arrived. He's also played well at Pinehurst in the past, having finished fifth at the 1999 Open.

Group 3: Paul Casey: The last time the U.S. Open champion came out of sectional qualifying it was Lucas Glover in 2009. In '09, he was paired with Woody Austin at the Columbus, Ohio qualifier. Casey was paired with Austin last week in Ohio when he punched his Pinehurst ticket. If that isn't convincing enough, the Englishman is playing some of his best golf in two years.

Group 4: Aaron Baddeley: Before the Australian lapsed into an extended slump, he was a regular on major championship leaderboards, including back-to-back top-30 finishes at the U.S. Open in 2007 and 2008. His game seems to be coming around just in time for Pinehurst.

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John Antonini

Group 1: Matt Kuchar: Oh, what a year this could have been. Kuchar leads the PGA Tour with nine top 10s this season and should have more than one win. A victory at Pinehurst will help him forget those poor final rounds in San Antonio, Houston and Augusta.

Group 2: Dustin Johnson: If not for a collapse in 2010 at Pebble Beach, he'd already have an Open title. He profiles nicely this year, ranking high in the FedEx Cup standings and the world ranking, as well as GIR and putting average.

Group 3: Ryan Palmer: Never a threat at a major, Palmer hits plenty of greens and has been putting well in 2014. He was runner-up this season at Humana and Honda. He's worth a look.

Group 4: Justin Thomas: No player in this group is on anyone's radar, so why not pick one of the guys with the most potential. Making his major debut, Thomas has played in six PGA Tour events this season and is seventh on the Web.com Tour money list.

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Will Gray

Group 1: Rory McIlroy: If he's on, his best is usually better than anything else the field has to offer. McIlroy knows what it takes to win this tournament and is still buoyed from his victory last month at Wentworth. The Ulsterman's lofty iron trajectories will prove beneficial when trying to find Pinehurst's turtleback greens, and while everyone will be making bogeys, McIlroy's ability to make more birdies than most will help to separate him from the field.

Group 2: Chris Kirk: Not exactly a household name among a group that includes plenty of them, but Kirk has won this season on Tour and has made 20 cuts in a row dating back to 2013. He has high finishes at a number of high-profile venues: top 25s at Augusta National, TPC Sawgrass, Colonial and Memorial in the last two months. He's above average around the greens and his even-keel demeanor will be an asset this week.

Group 3: Billy Horschel: Horschel has hit a ton of greens all season long, but his putter is finally starting to turn around - as evidenced by high finishes at both Muirfield Village and TPC Southwind in the last two weeks. Horschel was in contention a year ago at Merion, and he played well during the stroke-play portion of the 2008 U.S. Amateur when it was held at Pinehurst No. 2.

Group 4: Jeff Maggert: Only five players in this week's field made the cut at each of the two prior U.S. Opens staged at Pinehurst (1999, 2005), and Maggert is among that select company. A winner earlier this year on the Champions Tour, Maggert is playing some good golf right now and after we saw the over-50 circuit play such a significant role at the season's first major, it's possible we may see a similar storyline play out this week.

**wayne1218** · 06-11-2014, 07:02 PM

Each week of the season, our experts share their insights into which players fit the criteria for our four categories: Horse for the Course (a golfer who knows the track inside and out), Birdie Buster (a guy who could take it low this week), Super Sleeper (a player who could unexpectedly contend) and Winner.

This week, the PGA Tour is at Pinehurst No. 2 for the 114th U.S. Open.

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Horse for the Course

Farrell Evans, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Phil Mickelson
Sure, Pinehurst No. 2 looks different than it did when Lefty finished second here in 1999, but there are few players in the field this week capable of matching his touch and creativity around these turtleback greens

Bob Harig, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Mickelson
If loving the course creates any positive energy, then Lefty has it going into the U.S. Open. He has made no secret of his appreciation for the renovations at Pinehurst, and feels the setup suits his style of play and even offers him an advantage

Alf Musketa, ESPN Insider professional sports handicapper: Dustin Johnson
Pinehurst No. 2 will play to a maximum of 7,562 yards. It will feature wiry rough and difficult to hold turtleback greens. Getting as close to these greens to hit in higher approach shots will pay dividends for Johnson.

Gene WojciechowskI, ESPN.com columnist: Adam Scott
Same rationale for picking him to win (see below). Scott has played well in recent weeks, and this type of course will seem familiar to him.

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Birdie Buster

Evans: Bubba Watson
In his last three events, Bubba has a win at the Masters, a tie for 48th at the Players and a third at the Memorial, where a late decision in the final round to hit a driver cost him the tournament. Otherwise, he would have two wins in his last three starts.

Harig: Watson
The Masters champion might not make a lot of birdies this week, but he's been the best player this year, having won twice and with two runner-up finishes. He's coming off a solo third at the Memorial.

Musketa: Jim Furyk
Perhaps for the U.S. Open we should rename this category "Par Buster" because as we know, par is a good score at any U.S. Open track, and birdies will be rare. Furyk ranks No. 1 in scrambling on the PGA Tour at just under 70 percent through 48 rounds. The ability to get up and down could be the ticket to winning another U.S. Open for this former champion.

Wojciechowski: Matt Kuchar
He's been a top-10 machine this year. He did the smart thing by not playing at Memphis and getting some rest to do prep work for the U.S. Open. He's due to win his first major one of these days.

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Super Sleeper

Evans: Miguel Angel Jimenez
The 50-year-old Spaniard has missed the cut in seven of his 12 previous U.S. Open appearances, but in the championship he does have a tie for second in 2000 and tie for sixth in 2008. In April, he had a fourth in the Masters. Then he went on to earn wins on both the Champions Tour and the European Tour. His precise iron play and deft touch around the greens should keep him near the leaders on the weekend.

Harig: Bill Haas
His U.S. Open record is poor -- three missed cuts in five appearances -- but Haas is a solid player who has underachieved in the major championships. A five-time PGA Tour winner, he has three top-10s this year, including a tie for eighth at the Memorial.

Musketa: David Toms
At 175-1 in the future book odds, Toms is worthy of a super sleeper play. If hitting the fairway and avoiding the unpredictable rough becomes the key factor this week, driving accuracy moves way up the ladder and so will Toms, who ranks No. 2 in that stat on the PGA Tour.

Wojciechowski: Steve Stricker
A T-8 at last year's U.S. Open and a putting stroke to die for. That will come in nicely on greens that will expose crummy putters.

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Winner

Evans: Kuchar
The 35-year-old seven-time PGA Tour winner will become the ninth player in the last 10 U.S. Opens to make the tournament his first win in a major. He's been too consistent over the last five years not to win one of the big four. It's his time.

Harig: Rory McIlroy
Big ballpark, room off the tee. Those attributes at Pinehurst suit McIlroy, who might also wish for some rain and a softer golf course, under which circumstances he really excels. McIlroy has had his ups and downs this year, but his game has generally been solid. Avoiding a Friday downfall -- he's shot 40 or higher for nine holes in four of his last five PGA Tour events -- might be the biggest hurdle.

Musketa: Phil Mickelson
The sentimental choice if there ever was one. Mickelson has six runner-up finishes in the U.S. Open. You've heard it over and over how Mickelson needs one more major, the U.S. Open, to join an elite club of only five players to win all the majors at least once. I believe Mickelson plays better under pressure and he has that pointed directly at him this week having come so close here before. I expect his short-game magic around the greens to be the difference.

Wojciechowski: Jason Day
Yes, I know he's been injured this season. I also know he's played in three U.S. Opens and finished second twice. And he's played more than a few rounds on sandhill-type courses in his native Australia.

**wayne1218** · 06-11-2014, 07:04 PM

ESPN INSIDER BETTING GUIDE

The U.S. Open and The Open Championship are the most difficult golf major events to bet on with any confidence, primarily because the courses they play are extreme, have difficult hazards, sometimes harsh weather and deep rough. This week at Pinehurst No. 2, the U.S. Open graduated rough that we've become accustomed to has been redesigned to resemble an original look of the 1930s. Patches of love grass, weeds and sandy hardpan lies are now in place. A good or bad lie in these rough waste areas could determine the winner this year.

We always look to take advantage of the bookmakers' mistakes in value betting the future odds to win, and most certainly in head-to-head matchups.

Here are my contender and long-shot selections to win the U.S. Open, along with the best head-to-head matchups and prop bets.

Note: Odds courtesy of William Hill US Sports Book in Las Vegas.

Contenders

Bubba Watson (20-1)

It has been noted that Bubba usually hates the U.S. Open due to narrow fairways with its tricky setup and heavy rough. Simply put, those conditions do not favor Bubba Golf. However, Pinehurst No. 2 will offer a more wide-open look off the tee, and if you miss the fairway there is a better than average chance of having a bare sandy waste area lie. Bubba can hit all kinds of shots from bare lies. Does the 2012 Masters in a playoff come to mind?

If Bubba has room to work the ball off the tee, from there he's as good as any player to the green (currently ranking No. 7 in Greens in Regulation (GIR) this season, and was No. 4 in 2013). He plays fast greens well and is an underrated chipper. Also, he's the only player in the field with a shot at the yearly Grand Slam after winning at Augusta.

Jordan Spieth (25-1)

Spieth had a two-shot lead at one point in the final round at Augusta and was tied for the lead at the Players Championship. We get the feeling that this young phenom is relishing the big stage and is ready to take the next step and bag his first major. Despite missing the cut last year at Merion and a T-21 as an amateur in 2012, Spieth has all the tools to win a U.S. Open. With a solid irons-approach game in addition to being a great touch putter, he will climb the leaderboard. But what we like most is his determination and the five top-20 finishes in his last six starts.

Jason Dufner (40-1)

I'm leaning with the previous two major winners here, Dufner and Bubba, to use their recent championship experience and a make another run up the leaderboard. Dufner won his major, the 2013 PGA Championship at Oak Hill, on what I would call a one of the toughest courses in all of golf. Dufner has missed only one cut in 15 starts this season. He has five top-10 and nine top-20 finishes this season and just three weeks ago turned in his best performance, a playoff loss at Colonial. Dufner has been knocking on the door to win this event, posting back-to-back fourth-place finishes in the past two years.

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Long shots

Paul Casey (100-1)

Casey was once the No. 13-ranked player in the world. A series of rib injuries and a snowboarding shoulder injury in 2013 have set back this Englishman to No. 82. However, Casey is steadily climbing the rankings again. He has four top-25 finishes in his last four starts, and watching golf coverage I see his swing is back on plane and a rhythm that he has not shown in years. Plus, his putting has improved by switching to left-hand low or cross-handed putting.

Joost Luiten (120-1)

Other than Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott and Matt Kuchar, Luiten is the hottest player on the planet. His worst finish in the past four months is a T-26 at Augusta. Last week at the European Tour's Lyoness Open in Austria, he narrowly missed getting into a playoff by one shot and finished T-3. He hasn't missed a cut all year and hasn't finished outside of the top 35. Luiten is a real hidden-value future book bet in this Championship. While McIlroy is the favorite at 10-1 at most establishments, Scott 12-1 and Kuch 20-1, if you shop around you'll find Luiten anywhere from 75-1 to 130-1.

Retief Goosen (125-1)

I recall vividly in 2005 the Goose with a three-shot lead after 54 holes at Pinehurst. I know since I was a marshal for that event. While the Goose managed to let that one slip away, he still has two U.S. Open trophies and his game is rounding into form lately. He fired two rounds of 66 last week at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. No one putts fast greens better than the Goose, and with only humidity in the forecast, plus the fact that Pinehurst is a sand-base track that drains very well, the greens should be firm and fast all week.

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Matchups

Note: We were 3-0 in our matchups at the Masters

Jason Dufner (+115) over Jason Day

Day has finished second twice in the past three years in the U.S. Open, and it wouldn't surprise me that he fares well here if bombers rule. However, Day has only teed it up twice in the past nine weeks due to a thumb injury and in my opinion won't be sharp enough to contend. Dufner took last week off but before that played four straight weeks and was runner-up at the Crowne Plaza Invitational.

Billy Horschel (-175) over Patrick Reed

This is a play against Reed, whose game has spiraled downward since his infamous "I'm a top-five player" quote. He's missed four cuts in six starts with his best finish a T-48, and last week missed the cut again in Memphis. Meanwhile, Horschel has back-to-back top-20 finishes, including a sixth-place showing last week. We look for Horschel to play well again in the U.S. Open as he did last year at Merion (T-4).

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Props

Winning margin: 1 stroke (+160)

As we have seen in all sports there is so much parity today, and that parity has also transferred over to the PGA Tour. The difference in cut margin used to be 14.6 shots from the leader to the cut line; now it averages 10.8 strokes. Two of the past three PGA winners were in playoffs: Adam Scott defeated Jason Dufner at Colonial and Hideki Matsuyama knocked off Kevin Na in a sudden-death playoff at the Memorial.

I'd love to see an 18-hole U.S. Open playoff on Monday, as it would contain a ton of drama and more betting opportunities for us. But there has not been a U.S. Open playoff since Tiger Woods versus Rocco Mediate at Torrey Pines in 2008. We expect a tight leaderboard and a close finish, thus plus-160 is there for the taking.

Top-20 finish: Brendon Todd (4-1)

Todd, a North Carolina native, has gone through a windmill of coaches over the past three years and finally has settled with Scott Hamilton (who also works with Boo Weekley). The change has paid off with a win at the HP Byron Nelson Championship four weeks ago, and Todd has backed that up with two straight top-10 finishes. Todd has what it takes to win or contend this week, hitting fairways and making putts as his stats reflect (34th in driving accuracy and seventh in strokes gained putting).

**vols fan** · 06-11-2014, 07:08 PM

I really feel like I could pick 30 guys and still not win. Wide open as far as capping

**wayne1218** · 06-11-2014, 07:15 PM

Originally posted by vols fan View Post

I really feel like I could pick 30 guys and still not win. Wide open as far as capping

Me Too. That's usually what happens when I bet on golf. I lose!!!!

Pretty hard to pick 1 guy out of what, 150 or 200?

**wayne1218** · 06-11-2014, 07:17 PM

Seems to be a lot of love for Kuchar vols?

**elliott one** · 06-12-2014, 01:13 AM

LOVE THE POST WAYNE!! GREAT INFO!! Im a big round player. Not very good at calln the tourney winner. BOL!!

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