The Bum's WCup - Group Breakdown

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2014 World Cup Results

June 26, 2014

Betting Results

Group Stages
Wager Results
Favorites-Underdogs 28-11
Draws 9
Over-Under 28-18-2
Group Stages

Thursday, June 12
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
A Croatia vs. Brazil (-350) 3-1 Favorite Over (2.5)

Friday, June 13
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
A Mexico (+130) vs. Cameroon 1-0 Favorite Under (2)
B Spain vs. Netherlands (+360) 5-1 Underdog Over (2)
B Chile (-250) vs. Australia 3-1 Favorite Over (2.5)

Saturday, June 14
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
C Colombia (-120) vs. Greece 3-0 Favorite Over (2.5)
C Cote d' Ivoire (+165) vs. Japan 2-1 Favorite Over (2.5)
D Uruguay vs. Costa Rica (+785) 3-1 Underdog Over (2.5)
D England vs. Italy (+215) 2-1 Underdog Over (2.5)

Sunday, June 15
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
E Switzerland (+130) vs. Ecuador 2-1 Favorite Over (2.5)
E France (-350) vs. Honduras 3-0 Favorite Over (2.5)
F Argentina (-400) vs. Bosnia 2-1 Favorite Push (3)

Monday, June 16
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
F Iran vs. Nigeria 0-0 Draw (+250) Under (2.5)
G Germany (+115) vs. Portugal 4-0 Favorite Over (2.5)
G Ghana vs. United States (+180) 2-1 Underdog Over (2.5)

Tuesday, June 17
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
H Belgium (-400) vs. Algeria 2-1 Favorite Over (2.5)
H Russia vs. South Korea 1-1 Draw (+260) Under (2.5)
A Brazil vs. Mexico 0-0 Draw (+400) Under (2.5)

Wednesday, June 18
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
A Cameroon vs. Croatia (-160) 4-0 Favorite Over (2.5)
B Spain vs. Chile (+450) 2-0 Underdog Under (3)
B Australia vs. Netherlands (-450) 3-2 Favorite Over (3)

Thursday, June 19
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
C Colombia (+105) vs. Cote d'Ivoire 2-1 Favorite Over (2.5)
C Japan vs. Greece 0-0 Draw (+275) Under (2.5)
D Uruguay (+285) vs. England 2-1 Underdog Over (2.5)

Friday, June 20
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
D Italy vs. Costa Rica (+525) 1-0 Underdog Under (2.5)
E Switzerland vs. France (-130) 5-2 Favorite Over (2.5)
E Honduras vs. Ecuador (-165) 2-1 Favorite Over (2.5)

Saturday, June 21
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
F Argentina (-850) vs. Iran 1-0 Favorite Under (3)
F Nigeria (+350) vs. Bosnia 1-0 Underdog Under (2.5)
G Germany vs. Ghana 2-2 Draw (+475) Over (3)

Sunday, June 22
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
G United States vs. Portugal 2-2 Draw (+300) Over (2.5)
H Belgium (+120) vs. Russia 1-0 Favorite Under (2.5)
H South Korea vs. Algeria (+200) 4-2 Underdog Over (2)

Monday, June 23
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
A Cameroon vs. Brazil (-900) 4-1 Favorite Over (3.5)
A Croatia vs. Mexico (-160) 3-1 Favorite Over (2.5)
B Australia vs. Spain (-300) 3-0 Favorite Push (3)
B Netherlands (+150) vs. Chile 2-0 Favorite Under (2.5)

Tuesday, June 24
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
C Japan vs. Colombia (+110) 4-1 Favorite Over (2.5)
C Greece (+315) vs. Cote d'Ivoire 2-1 Underdog Over (2.5)
D Italy vs. Uruguay (+175) 1-0 Underdog Under (2.5)
D Costa Rica vs. England 0-0 Draw (+330) Under (2.5)

Wednesday, June 25
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
E Honduras vs. Switzerland (-220) 3-0 Favorite Over (2.5)
E Ecuador vs. France 0-0 Draw (+325) Under (3)
F Nigeria vs. Argentina (-240) 3-2 Favorite Over (2.5)
F Bosnia (+120) vs. Iran 3-1 Favorite Over (2.5)

Thursday, June 26
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
G United States vs. Germany (-145) 1-0 Favorite Under (2.5)
G Portugal (-285) vs. Ghana 2-1 Favorite Under (3.5)
H South Korea vs. Belgium (-125) 1-0 Favorite Under (2.5)
H Algeria vs. Russia 1-1 Draw (+150) Under (2.5)


Round of 16
Saturday, June 28
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
Brazil vs. Chile - - -
Colombia vs. Uruguay - - -

Sunday, June 29
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
Netherlands vs. Mexico - - -
Costa Rica vs. Greece - - -

Monday, June 30
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
France vs. Nigeria - - -
Germany vs. Algeria - - -

Tuesday, July 1
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
Argentina vs. Switzerland - - -
Belgium vs. United States - - -


Quarterfinals
Friday, July 4
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
TBA - - -
TBA - - -

Saturday, July 5
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
TBA - - -
TBA - - -


Semifinals
Tuesday, July 8
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
TBA - - -

Wednesday, July 9
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
TBA - - -


Third Place & Championship

Saturday, June 12
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
TBA - - -

Sunday, July 13
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
TBA - -

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Saturday's WCup Tips

June 27, 2014

Brazil vs. Chile (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Saturday is all about the South Americans. Two matches, four teams, and all from the host continent. It promises to be quite a day of soccer.

First up, Brazil play Chile at the Estadio Mineirão in Belo Horizonte. This looks like a wonderful match-up. Brazil have been far from convincing in the tournament so far. They were indebted to a dreadful refereeing decision to get them victory over Croatia in their first game, and then were unable to break down Mexico in a 0-0 draw. Even against Cameroon, a game they eventually won 4-1, there were moments when the Brazil back-line looked very shaky.

It has often been said, I think rightly, that Brazil beat teams on moments, rather than flow. So instead of having an individual style that is identified with the team, like Spain do, Brazil rely on moments of magic to win games. Now, those moments come from Neymar. In the past, it has been Ronaldo, Ronaldinho and Zico.

Chile have been hugely impressive so far, and they play with a relentless energy that makes them hugely appealing on the eye. The defence is leaky, and very very small. It is easy to see Chile having much the better of the game, but losing thanks to a header from a corner.

Brazil are 51/100 with sportsbook.ag to win the game in 90 minutes, and 1/4 in the Qualify from Tie market. These look far too short, and I feel Chile are the value for this match. They are 19/4 to win the game in 90 minutes, and 27/10 to qualify. However I’d prefer to back them in the handicap markets, where they Chile +1 is 7/5. Chile are the best team Brazil have faced so far, and I really would be amazed if we saw a thrashing.

In the first goalscorer market, even at a price as short as 7/2, Neymar looks tempting. He has shown that the unimaginable pressure on his shoulders does not affect him adversely. Some of his finishes have been fantastic. He seems to thrive off responsibility, and the fact that he is not the main man at Barcelona may go some way to explaining why he has has disappointed a bit in his first season. At the Nou Camp, Messi is king, not Neymar.

Top Bets: Chile -1 at 7/5, Neymar to score first at 7/2

Colombia vs. Uruguay (ABC, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Colombia meet Uruguay in the second All-South American game on Saturday. What an occasion it will be at the Maracana. Both sides will be fantastically supported, and the atmosphere will be electric.

Colombia have put in three excellent performances so far at this World Cup. They won all three group games, scoring nine goals in the process. They showed just how little they miss Falcao; in fact, his absence allows them to play one up front, and it arguably strengthens Jose Pekerman’s side. James Rodriguez, used in a central role, has been possibly the Player of the Tournament so far.

In all the controversy surrounding Luis Suarez’s serial biting, Uruguay’s achievement in turning round their tournament from losing 3-1 to Costa Rica in their opening match has been overlooked somewhat. Both wins against Italy and Uruguay were typically Uruguayan: belligerent, brave and resolute. They are the eternal underdog, despite their great history in the World Cup.

While it is tempting to foresee another heroic Uruguayan display in adversity, Tabarez’s side will miss Suarez terribly. Edinson Cavani has been playing a kind of ‘advanced destroyer’ role at this World Cup, leaving Suarez the only real source of magic. They throw in the odd atrocious performance, and their indiscipline often costs them. If Colombia make a good start, Uruguay could unravel. They rely a bit too much on keeping it tight early on.

Colombia are the 91/100 favourites, and this price has shortened a lot since it was confirmed that Suarez would miss the rest of the World Cup. I still think there’s some value to be had. Colombia’s focus did not waver in their 4-1 win over Japan in a meaningless match, and they just look much better than Uruguay. In Juan Cuadrado they have a great winger, and Teofilo Gutierrez and Jackson Martinez are two fine options up front.

A draw is 27/10, with a Uruguay win in 90 minutes 59/20. In the ‘Qualify From Tie’ market, Colombia are 5/11 and Uruguay 17/10.

Top Bet: Colombia to win at 91/100

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Round of 16 - Best Bets

June 27, 2014

The group stages of the World Cup are over. Half the teams still harbour hopes of being victorious in Rio on July 13th, while the other half have boarded the plane home, their hopes gone for another four years. The knockout stages of the tournament is where heroes are made. This is where it gets really interesting.

The real story of the World Cup so far has been the success of the South American teams, and the comparative failure of the Europeans. Brazil and Argentina both eased through their groups, while Chile and Colombia have fully lived up to their billing as potential surprise packages. Uruguay, after a shock 3-1 defeat to Costa Rica in the opening round, responded in typically belligerent style to record wins over Italy and England to go through, though not without serious controversy.

Four European teams, with six World Cups between them, have gone out at the first stage: Italy, England, Portugal and Spain. England simply weren't good enough, Italy were let down by one awful performance against Costa Rica, while Portugal’s exit was partly attributable to indiscipline, group rivals who exceeded expectations, and the lack of fitness of Cristiano Ronaldo. I predicted that Spain would find out that their style no longer worked, but I was amazed at quite how brutal their exit was.

My original major tip was Argentina and, despite three rather flawed performances, I am going to stick with Alejandro Sabella’s side. The team that wins the World Cup is rarely the team that starts best; rather, it is the team that gradually improves as the tournament goes on. I have drawn great encouragement from the fact that, despite struggling for periods, they won all three games. Winning when not at your best is perhaps the most important characteristic of a successful team.

And they have Lionel Messi who, luckily for fans, has turned up in his full majesty for this tournament. He has four goals already, two of which were absolutely crucial in securing wins. His performances have made up for disappointing contributions so far from Sergio Aguero and Gonzalo Higuain. Aguero is now out of the rest of the tournament with an injury.

They are in by far the easiest half of the draw. After facing Switzerland in the last 16, they meet either Belgium or the USA in the quarter-finals, with a likely meeting with the Netherlands in the semis. They cannot meet any of France, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Germany until the final, and play all of their games at reasonable times and in moderate conditions. At 4/1 I’m happy to have a top up on the Argentines.

At 3/1, Brazil seem much less appealing. They face Chile in the last 16, who are very hard to set up against. They play a formation (a sort of 3-4-1-2 with two wide forwards - told you it was odd) which no-one else in world football uses, and their relentless pressing means teams often struggle to get into a rhythm against them. Brazil’s usually sound defence has had some moments of real slackness so far, and Chile could punish them.

Even if they get past Chile, they would probably play Colombia, followed by either France or Germany. And that’s before the final - 3/1 is far too short.

I may have underestimated Germany, but I still feel they are to be swerved at 4/1. They only put in one truly excellent performance in the group stage and even in that, a 4-0 win over Portugal, their opponents had 10 men and had given up for half the match. Their three games have been played in the north-eastern cities of Fortaleza, Salvador and Recife, all played in ferociously hot temperatures. This will surely have taken the edge of Joachim Löw’s side, and I wonder how their stamina will hold for the knockout rounds.

France have been one of the teams of the tournament so far. Robbed of Franck Ribéry through injury, Les Bleus have shown they have an abundance of talent behind him. Mathieu Valbuena is a wonderfully gifted little midfielder who pulls the strings, while Karim Benzema, after a dreadful Euro 2012, has looked in fine form. They will surely beat Nigeria in the last 16, setting up a potential clash with Germany in the quarter-final. What a game that could be.

France are superb, but they may have peaked a little early and, while I’d back them to get to the semi-finals, I’d be wary of backing them if they were to face Brazil or Argentina. 7/1 seems about right.

This does not look like a vintage Netherlands side, but they won all three games in a very tough group, and have been given a delightfully kind path to the semi-finals. They face Mexico, before playing the winner of Costa Rica v Greece, two teams predicted to finish bottom of their groups. In Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie they have two geniuses, but they look too short of quality elsewhere to justify quotes of 11/2.

Colombia put in three really good performances to win Group C. Most encouraging of all was a 4-1 win over Japan, when they had already qualified. Attacking midfielder James Rodriguez has possibly been the player of the tournament so far. The suspension for Luis Suarez has pushed them into around 1/1 to beat Uruguay in the last 16, after which they have been drawn against either Chile or hosts Brazil. Despite a hard draw, it is hard to ignore 18/1 on a team that was second to none in the group stages.

I’m still not convinced by Belgium at 15/1, and I think they have a really tough draw as they take on the USA, who are 40/1 to win it. Chile are 30/1, but their defence just looks that little bit too flawed for them to be a realistic winner.

Top Bets: Argentina to win the World Cup at 4/1, Colombia to win the World Cup at 18/1

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WCup Round of 16 Odds

June 27, 2014


Explanation of Odds:

Three-Way Lines for Soccer include options for Team A, Team B, or a Draw. This wager is based on the first 90 minutes of play and any extra time added for injuries and substitution. If the game is tied after this period, the winning wager is the DRAW. Otherwise, the winning wager will be either Team A or Team B depending on the result.

The 90 minutes of play also relates to totals. Ex. If a game is tied 1-1 after 90 minutes, the UNDER (2.5) would be deemed a winning wager. Any goals scored thereafter would not for or against the total listed.

Team to Advance Odds include options for Team A or Team B only. This wager is based on the first 90 minutes plus the extra time (two 15-minute halves) and penalty kicks if necessary. The odds for favorites are higher in this bet and lower for underdogs.

Saturday, June 28

Brazil vs. Chile (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Brazil -188
Chile +450
Tie +350
Over 2.5 (-153)
Under 2.5 (+125)

Team to Advance Odds:
Brazil -400
Chile +270

Colombia vs. Uruguay (ABC, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Colombia -120
Uruguay +325
Tie +270
Over 2.5 (+115)
Under 2.5 (-144)

Team to Advance Odds:
Colombia -240
Uruguay +180

Sunday, June 29, 2014

Netherland vs. Mexico (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Netherlands -105
Mexico +270
Tie +260
Over 2.5 (-105)
Under 2.5 (-129)

Team to Advance Odds:
Netherlands -200
Mexico +160

Costa Rica vs. Greece (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Costa Rica +125
Greece +225
Tie +225
Over 2.5 (+205)
Under 2.5 (-250)

Team to Advance Odds:
Costa Rica -155
Greece +125

Monday, June 30, 2014

France vs. Nigeria (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

France -222
Nigeria +500
Tie +350
Over 2.5 (-114)
Under 2.5 (-114)

Team to Advance Odds:
France -450
Nigeria +300

Germany vs. Algeria (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Germany -344
Algeria +750
Draw +450
Over 2.5
Under 2.5

Team to Advance Odds:
Germany -790
Algeria +550

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Argentina vs. Switzerland (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Argentina -204
Switzerland +500
Tie +350
Over 2.5 (-129)
Under 2.5 (even)

Team to Advance Odds:
Argentina -450
Switzerland +300

Belgium vs. United States (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Belgium -125
USA +290
Draw +260
Over 2.5
Under 2.5

Team to Advance Odds:
Belgium -215
United States +180

Updated Future Odds to win the 2014 World Cup (6/30/14)

Brazil 3/1
Germany 4/1
Argentina 4/1
Netherlands 6/1
France 7/1
Belgium 15/1
Colombia 18/1
Mexico 22/1
Chile 25/1
Uruguay 30/1
USA 40/1
Costa Rica 40/1
Greece 80/1
Switzerland 80/1
Nigeria 200/1
Algeria 200/1

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World Cup Game of the Day: Brazil vs. Chile


Brazil vs. Chile (-175, +525, Draw +333)

Chile has lofty aspirations heading into Saturday's World Cup second-round match with host Brazil. But in order to advance to the round of eight for the first time since reaching the semifinals as the host nation 52 years ago, the upstart Chileans will need to do something they haven't done in their storied history - beat the Brazilians on their own turf. Chile rode victories over Australia and Spain to a spot in the final 16 before losing to the Netherlands.

The Brazilians cruised to first place in Group A, earning victories over Croatia and Cameroon and settling for a goalless draw against a game Mexican side. Yet, while the hosts appear to be the team to beat the rest of the way, Chile doesn't plan to be a pushover. "Brazil has often been Chile's nemesis but football changes, new generations come and new players appear," Chile midfielder Arturo Vidal said. "We've beaten (Spain), so we can beat Brazil."

TV: 12 p.m. ET, ABC

WORLD RANKINGS: Brazil: No. 3; Chile: No. 14.

INJURY REPORT: Brazil: None; Chile: None.

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Visiting Brazil has not been kind to Chile in the past, in the last 26 games, Brazil have won 25 and drawn 1. The Selecao may not have impressed everyone so far in this competition, but we should expect to see them go from strength to strength. Some will argue Chile were rather fortunate to beat Australia and have only qualified due to Spain's abysmal campaign. We'll see who comes out the Victory on Sunday night." Covers Experts' Footy Tipster

WAG WAR: Bruna Marquezine, girlfriend of Brazil star Neymar, vs. Daniela Aranguiz, wife of Chile forward Jorge Valdivia.



ABOUT BRAZIL: The home team is loaded with talent, but it's clear to everyone on both sides of Saturday's matchup that Neymar is the key to their continued success. The world-class star shares the World Cup lead with four goals while leading the team in shots (11) and shot assists (six). The bigger concern for the Brazilians is ensuring that Neymar keeps it clean against the Chileans; he and Thiago Silva both have one yellow card, and a second would result in an untimely one-game suspension.

ABOUT CHILE: An opponent as creative and fundamentally sound as the Brazilians is dangerous enough - but the hosts may have a decided advantage in another area, and that has to concern the Chilean side. Chile has won less than 41 percent of its header matchups so far in the tournament, while Brazil enters the knockout stage having prevailed in better than 68 percent of its aerial showdowns. With 28 of 136 group-stage goals coming via the header, don't be surprised if a well-placed redirection decides this one.

TWEET BEAT:



TRENDS:

* Brazil has beaten Chile three times in as many World Cup meetings, with each one taking place in the knockout stage.
* Chile has dropped back-to-back second-round games at the World Cup, losing by a combined score of 7-1.
* Brazil is 8-1-1 all-time in World Cup matches against continental rivals.
* Chile has lost 20 games and drawn six on Brazilian soil.

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World Cup 2014 knockout betting: Colombia vs. Uruguay


Colombia vs. Uruguay (June 28)



Two South American nations go head-to-head in the round of 16 as Group C winners Colombia face off against the Group D runners up, Uruguay.

Colombia have enjoyed a sensational World Cup campaign so far, winning all three of their group games. That has included nine goals scored, four of which came in their demolition of Japan in their final Group C fixture.

Uruguay’s qualification has been slightly more controversial. After a poor start to their campaign, losing 3-1 to Costa Rica, Luis Suarez returned and fired two past England in a dramatic 2-1 win, before beating the Italians 1-0.

However, the striker bit Italian defender Giorgio Chillieni in the following match, which has left his participation in the remainder of the competition in question. FIFA announced a nine game international ban for the Liverpool goal scorer, and the ball is now in Uruguay’s court as to whether they make an appeal or accept Suarez’s suspension.

Colombia are the current favorites on the 1×2 with Pinnacle Sports, with odds offered at 1.980 – an implied probability of 50.51 percent. Uruguay are available at 4.280 (a 23.36 percent chance of an upset), but will do well to beat the Colombians who have covered the spread in all three of their previous games.

During a recent Twitter Q&A, our Head of Sportsbook alluded that Luis Suarez’s absence from this fixture could be worth 0.25 of a goal to the Uruguayans. The current odds on the spread have Colombia as the 1.943 favorites on a -0.5 handicap, leaving bettors with even more of a predicament before placing their bets.

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Sunday's WCup Tips

June 28, 2014

Netherlands vs. Mexico (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

This quarter of the knockout stages of the World Cup is probably the weakest. Netherlands are the favourites, but for Costa Rica, Greece and Mexico it is a fantastic opportunity to get to their first World Cup semi-final.

The first game of the day sees the Netherlands meet Mexico at the Estadio Castelão in Fortaleza. Many tipped the Dutch to be the major big-name flop at this World Cup, but while fellow big-name Europeans Italy, England, Portugal and Spain fell by the wayside in the group stages, Louis van Gaal’s Oranje won all three group games, including a fantastic 5-1 over Spain in the third game of the tournament.

Mexico have gone out at the last 16 stage in each of the last five World Cups, and they will be desperate to go one step further this time. They were hugely impressive in Group A, winning seven points from three games. After managing a 0-0 draw with hosts Brazil, they secured qualification thanks to an excellent 3-1 win over Croatia.

The Netherlands are the 19/20 favourites with sportsbook.ag, and this looks decent enough to back. The Dutch defence has exceeded expectations so far, and in Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie they have two geniuses in the final third. They will also be helped by the fact that van Persie missed their last group game through suspension, and will be fresher for this tie as a result. Mexico are 14/5 to win the match in 90 minutes, while a draw is 13/5.

In the ‘Qualify From Tie’ market, the Netherlands, who have now lost in three finals without ever winning the World Cup, are 20/37, with Mexico 8/5.

One name stands out to me in the first goalscorer market, and it is Arjen Robben, who is quoted at 9/2 to break the deadlock. He has three already this tournament, and his dribbling will really test Mexico defenders who, while able to organise themselves well, are suspect when one-on-one against good dribblers. They aren't very quick either. Robben plays more centrally for the national team than in club football, and I can see him continuing his fine World Cup here. He has shown in the last year and a half that he can turn up in big games, and as one of the most accomplished finishers in the game, seems a great bet at the price offered.

Top Bet: Arjen Robben to score first at 9/2

Costa Rica vs. Greece (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

The second match of the day and the fourth match of the last 16 is, incredibly, Costa Rica vs Greece. Both sides were favourites to finish bottom of their group, with Costa Rica defying quotes of 50/1 on them winning a tough-looking Group D. These are, on paper, arguably the weakest two sides left in the competition. One of them will end up one game away from the World Cup semi-final, something they could barely have imagined before the tournament started.

Greece did exactly what they did in Euro 2012: after two poor performances, they still found themselves just needing to win their last group game to qualify. And they did just that, defeating the Ivory Coast 2-1 thanks to a last minute penalty from Giorgios Samaras. Amazingly, it was Samaras’s first international goal in two years. He has been a regular up front in that time,

Costa Rica were undoubtedly more impressive in the group stages than Greece, and so have been made favourites at 5/4. Greece are 12/5, with a draw 23/10. This is the shortest price on a draw in any of the last 16 ties.

With the tie likely to go to extra time, it may make more sense to look at the ‘Qualify From Tie’ market, where Greece are 23/20, and Costa Rica 20/27.

I feel Greece may have the edge here. They will need to stay fairly conservative. Even though ‘it’s only Costa Rica’, an attacking strategy simply does not suit Greece’s players. They defend deep, and spring counter-attacks. They have already kept Japan to a 0-0 with ten men, and they shouldn't find Costa Rica much harder to defend against. They have two fine centre-backs, while the three midfielders offer them ample protection.

Don’t expect goals. When Greece won Euro 2004, they won all three knockout games 1-0, beating the holders, the best team and the hosts in quick succession. Under 2.5 goals is strikingly short at 39/100, with over 2.5 at 1/1.

Giorgios Karagounis, at 37 years-old, is still a vital player in Greece’s midfield, connecting defence with attack. This Greek side is very unafraid of shooting, and Karagounis has a powerful shot on him. He constantly pops up with important goals for his country, and you could do a lot worse than backing him to score first at 20/1.

Top Bets: Greece to Qualify at 23/20, Giorgios Karagounis to score first at 20/1

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Top Over team in action Tuesday

Jun 30, 2014

Two teams advanced from the group stage with perfect Over/Under records: Colombia and Switzerland. Both sides were 3-0 O/U heading into the knockout phase and following Colombia's 2-0 win, only Switzerland is left unblemished for Over bettors.

Switzerland's backline looked like, ahem, Swiss cheese versus the French, allowing five goals. But they can score as well. Xherdan Shaqiri scored one of two hattricks in the group stage and they scored seven in their first three matches.

The Swiss take on Argentina Tuesday and Pinnacle Sports has set the goal total market at 2.5 and 3 goals. The Over is currently +110 and the Under is -121.

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World Cup start time helps books build bigger handle on USA-Belgium

Sportsbooks in Nevada and those online welcoming U.S. customers are bracing for what they’re calling “the biggest bet game” of the 2014 World Cup when the United States faces Belgium in the Round of 16 Tuesday.

The United States’ success in Brazil has been a boom for sportsbooks thanks in large part to a growing U.S. soccer market that has cheered – and bet – the USMNT through the group stage and into this elimination showdown.

The Americans come into Tuesday’s action priced as +190 underdogs to advance (Belgium -220) and are +360 pups in the 90-minute odds (Belgium -115, Draw +240), according to the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas. Online, at U.S.-facing book CarbonSports.ag, the USMNT is set as a +260 underdog for the 90-minute market, with Belgium at +110 and a Draw set at +250.

“The action has been really good, like the rest of the USA games,” Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag, told Covers Monday morning. “With our customer base, the USA games are going to see way more action than the other matchups.”

The United States’ opening contests in Group G created a “Super Bowl-like atmosphere” in Nevada casinos, where books were flooded with flag-waving bettors backing the Red, White and Blue. According to Las Vegas bookmakers, the USA drew 50 percent more money than its most recent opponent Germany last Thursday.

Tuesday’s match with Belgium is not only expected to draw more money than the United States' final group game due to the do-or-die elimination format but also due to the 4 p.m. ET start time. The United States’ 1-0 loss to Germany was a 12 p.m. ET kickoff, making for a very early morning – 9 a.m. – for Las Vegas soccer bettors. With the Round of 16 contest starting at 1 p.m. in Sin City, books have much more time to build a big handle.

“The handle should be enormous… with the later start time the handle will increase,” Ed Salmons, assistant manager at the LVH Superbook, tells Covers. “It’s hard to say right now (what the increase will be) since 90 percent of the money bet will come in on game day.”

Online books are also expecting a huge spike in action come Tuesday and say that while the later start doesn’t have as much impact with them as it does with Nevada books, they estimate the 4 p.m. ET kickoff will increase the handle on USA-Belgium by 10 percent.

“I would have to say this is our biggest bet game so far and we still have another day before the game, so the action is still coming in and will right through the game with our live betting markets,” says Stewart.

Currently, the LVH Superbook is dealing the United States at 50/1 to win the World Cup while Belgium comes into Tuesday priced at 20/1.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's World Cup Tips

June 30, 2014

Argentina vs. Switzerland (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

The last semi-finalist at Brazil 2014 will be made up from one of Argentina, Switzerland, Belgium and USA. Argentina are the strong favourites to make it to the semis, but they will face strong competition.

The first game of the day sees Argentina face Switzerland at the Arena Corinthians in São Paulo. Argentina have been dealt such a kind draw. First they were put in an easy group - they won all three games without ever really convincing. Second they were placed into comfortably the easier half of the draw, and third - their games are all played at moderate temperatures, away from the energy sapping heat of the northern venues.

Switzerland edged past Ecuador first up, before being hammered 5-2 by France, having been 5-0 down at one point. Needing to beat Honduras, Ottmar Hitzfeld’s teams duly obliged with a 3-0 win. Xherdan Shaqiri, Switzerland’s star man, grabbed a hat-trick. A winger, he is a powerfully built player with a vicious shot, but he moves around gracefully and is very underused at Bayern Munich. He will trouble Argentina’s suspect defence.

Argentina are the 1/2 favourites to win the match in normal time with sportsbook.ag. Switzerland are 57/10 shots, with a draw 33/10. The best value here would probably be a draw, just given that three of the six last 16 games so far have gone to extra time, with a fourth (Netherlands v Mexico) coming within about two minutes of a draw. Jose Pekerman’s team are 5/21 to qualify, with Switzerland 33/10.

The team that wins the World Cup is often the one that peaks at the right time, and there is lots to suggest Argentina will do this. They will still be full of energy after a favourable draw, and there was an openness in the Swiss defence in the 5-2 loss to France that will have Messi, Higuain, Lavezzi and Di Maria licking their lips in excitement. I just have a feeling Argentina will really pull their finger out now that the tournament has got serious.

In the first goalscorer market, PSG inside-forward Ezequiel Lavezzi looks a fair shout at 5/1. He replaces the injured Sergio Aguero, and he had enough chances after coming on in the 3-2 win over Nigeria to suggest that he could well be on the scoresheet today. He is a relentlessly hard worker and, despite often playing wide for PSG, the natural fluidity of Argentina’s front three means he will often find himself in goalscoring positions.

Top Bet: Ezequiel Lavezzi to score first at 5/1

Belgium vs. United States (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

The second game of the day is fascinating. It pits a Belgium side that won 3 out of 3 in the group without ever playing that well, against the USA, who qualified as rank outsiders from a tough-looking Group G.

The interesting thing about this match is that, while Belgium are strong favourites to qualify for the quarter-finals at 20/37, with USA 8/5, Belgium are not blessed with more big game experience than Klinsmann’s men, as is often the case with favourites. Belgium were drawn into an easy group, and their attack has looked poor throughout. Romelu Lukaku has been dreadful up front, while talented midfielders like Axel Witsel and Eden Hazard have failed to make a mark so far.

The USA have been great so far: they put in a thrillingly dogged performance to beat Ghana in that crucial opening match, before being very unlucky to draw 2-2 with Portugal in a game where they dominated long periods. There is a real mental strength to this team, and I think that could be the difference.

Certainly Belgium look too short to back at 1/1, with USA at 13/5. It may be best, however, to bear in mind the high number of draws in the knockout stage so far, along with both sides’ good defences, to back USA to qualify, without having to rely on them doing so in 90 minutes at 8/5.

I would not expect many goals. USA do not have the wingers to exploit Belgium’s alarming lack of full-backs, and both sides will inevitably be nervous. The conditions in Salvador, though tempered somewhat by the darkness, will be hot and sticky. Belgium are not a very fluid side, and 10/13 on One or Both Teams Not to Score looks the best shout.

USA showed how good they can be at the back in limiting Germany to only one in the last group game, while Belgium’s centre-back pairing of Vincent Kompany and Daniel van Buyten has looked steady so far. Van Buyten’s pace can catch him out, but the US don’t have great pace in attack, so he shouldn't be too exposed.

Top Bet: One or Both Teams Not to Score at 10/13

[StarDust Bum]

2014 World Cup Results

June 30, 2014


Round of 16
Saturday, June 28
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
Brazil vs. Chile 1-1 Draw (+375) Under (2.5)
Colombia (-135) vs. Uruguay 2-0 Favorite Under (2.5)


Sunday, June 29
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
Netherlands (+115) vs. Mexico 2-1 Favorite Over (2.5)
Costa Rica vs. Greece 1-1 Draw (+210) Push (2)


Monday, June 30
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
France (-250) vs. Nigeria 2-0 Favorite Under (2.5)
Germany vs. Algeria 0-0 Draw (+500) Under (3)


Tuesday, July 1
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
Argentina vs. Switzerland - - -
Belgium vs. United States - - -


Quarterfinals
Friday, July 4
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
France vs. Germany - - -
Brazil vs. Colombia - - -


Saturday, July 5
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
TBA - - -
Netherlands vs. Costa Rica - - -


Semifinals
Tuesday, July 8
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
TBA - - -


Wednesday, July 9
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
TBA - - -


Third Place & Championship

Saturday, June 12
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
TBA - - -

Sunday, July 13
Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
TBA - - -

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Quarterfinal Tips

July 4, 2014

Germany vs. France (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

This is the best looking day of the World Cup so far. There are two quarter-finals, with four excellent teams represented. The winners will go on to meet each other in Belo Horizonte. The victors there will be 90 minutes away from World Cup glory.

The first game of the day sees France play Germany at the Maracana. The two sides are arguably Europe's strongest, and the game looks like being very close. France were hugely impressive in the group, but they had to work for their 2-0 win over Nigeria, only sealing the game in injury time. Germany also won their group, but came perilously close to a huge shock against Algeria, against whom they needed extra time to beat.

The key to both teams' second round wins were their managers' first substitutions. Didier Deschamps started with Olivier Giroud leading the line, with Karim Benzema in an inside-left role. This didn't work. Giroud's hold up play was poor, and he and Benzema got in each other's way. When Giroud was taken off for winger Antoine Griezmann, Benzema was moved up front and France instantly improved. I expect Griezmann to start today.

Germany played three very similar players against Algeria in Mesut Ozil, Toni Kroos and Mario Gotze. While there are subtle differences among the trio, they all prefer to play just behind the striker. Algeria's massed defence played very narrow, and Germany simply didn't have the width to stretch Algeria. Once Andre Schurrle, another winger, came on for the quiet Gotze, Germany started testing the Algerian backline much more. There will be a clamour for Joachim Low to start Schurrle against the French.

France look excellent value here at 43/20 with Sportsbook.ag. The Germans will have tired a lot after playing the majority of their games in hot and humid conditions. France have, quite simply, looked better than Germany at the World Cup so far. While Germany have more tournament experience, they have ceased being the ruthless winners they were 20 years ago, and there is a softness to them that did not previously exist. They are 27/20 to win, with a draw 9/4.

Quarterfinal matches at the World Cup average almost exactly two goals per game, so under 2.5 is the favourite at 67/100. However, even given the low number of goals in normal time in the knockout rounds so far, over 2.5 appeals at 13/10 with two such attack-minded sides. Both teams to score is a 20/21 shot.

In the first goalscorer market, centre-forwards Karim Benzema and Thomas Muller are 5/1 and 4/1 respectively, but with so many good attacking midfielders on show, it may pay to look elsewhere. The two that stand out to me are Schurrle at 6/1 (he once scored four in one game for Germany) and France's midfield sensation Paul Pogba at 8/1.

Top Bet: France to win at 43/20

Colombia vs. Brazil (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Brazil face Colombia in both teams' second consecutive tie against a fellow South American team. It's another titanic clash. Brazil are still the favourites for the World Cup, but there are problems with the team. They are utterly reliant on Neymar (who, so far, has delivered) for attacking inspiration, while they are often a bit empty in the centre of midfield.

Colombia have been the best team at the World Cup so far, and attacking midfielder James Rodriguez the best player, who also scored the best goal. That came in a 2-0 win over Uruguay, whom they dominated from start to finish. This is their first ever game in the quarter-finals, which is extraordinary given the population and the number of world class players that have come from Colombia. It is a true golden generation. Can they keep calm?

Brazil have one big selection issue: defensive midfielder Luiz Gustavo, their best player in the win on penalties against Chile, is suspended. He knits the side together superbly, and his defensive mindset compensates well for the cavalier approach of the two full-backs. Paulinho and Fernandinho will most likely be the pair Scolari opts for, but neither are like-for-like replacements. And with James Rodriguez buzzing around in the gap between midfield and defence, it is a dreadful time for Brazil to be without Gustavo.

I just can't resist Colombia here. They are 3/1 to win the game in 90 minutes, and 2/1 to qualify. Given the number of games that have gone to extra time, I'd take the latter option. Prior to the tournament, you'd expect Brazil to be about 1/2 to win this match, but given how much Colombia have impressed, they are in fact 87/100. A draw is available at 27/10, and also looks like a sound bet. Here again, few goals are expected with under 2.5 the 37/50 favourite.

We have seen an unusual number of goals in extra time so far: all six goals in the Germany v Algeria and Belgium v USA games came after 90 minutes, and Colombia to win in extra time is hugely appealing at 13/1.

There is much to admire in the Brazil side: their team spirit is incredible, and Scolari has managed to forge a club-like bond between his players. So far they have dealt with the colossal pressure on them, but in Colombia they may just meet a slightly better team.

In the first goalscorer market, Neymar is too short at 27/10, even though he is comfortably Brazil's most dangerous player. Fred is 9/2, and may prosper against a questionable Colombia centre-back pairing. James Rodriguez is 13/2, with Teofilo Gutierrez, Colombia's first choice striker in the absence of Falcao, is 15/2.

Top Bets: Colombia to qualify at 2/1, Colombia to win in extra time at 13/1

[StarDust Bum]

Argentina vs. Belgium

July 4, 2014


Argentina vs. Belgium

Date/Time: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Estadio Nacional de Brasilia
Location: Brasilia, Brazil

Sportsbook.ag Line:
Argentina +120, Belgium +250, Tie after Regulation +225
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +130, Under -149)

Two teams coming off grueling extra-time victories in the Round of 16 will collide in Saturday's quarterfinals when Argentina meets Belgium.

Argentina has won all four of its matches in this tournament, with all four victories coming by a one-goal margin. After edging Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-1 and escaping past Iran 1-0, the Maracana outlasted Nigeria 3-2 to clinch Group F. In Tuesday's Round of 16 contest, Argentina failed to score until the 118th minute in a 1-0 win over Switzerland.

Belgium's World Cup fate has been the same as its opponent, winning all four of its matches, and all four of those victories coming by one goal. They edged Algeria 2-1 and posted back-to-back, 1-0 shutout wins over Russia and South Korea before holding off USA 2-1 in the knockout round. All six tournament goals for the Red Devils have come at least 70 minutes into each match with the half-dozen tallies coming at minutes 70, 78, 80, 88, 93 and 105. But these wins came with a price, as several of their key players were hurting on the road to their first quarterfinal berth since 1986.

Defender Thomas Vermaelen didn't play on Tuesday because of an injured hamstring, while right back Anthony Vanden Borre (cracked fibula) and defender Laurent Ciman (strained abductor) were unable to suit up either. Argentina opened the single-elimination tournament minus forward Sergio Aguero, who is doubtful to play in the quarterfinals because of a thigh injury.

Forward Lionel Messi has arguably been the best player in the World Cup, and has carried Argentina with four of his team's seven goals, and he also set up teammate Angel di Maria's one-timer with a perfect pass at the 118th minute to escape past Switzerland in the Round of 16. The other two tallies for the Maracana came on a fortunate own goal by Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Marcos Rojo's game-winner versus Nigeria. Although Argentina has not dominated in this tournament as many experts expected they would versus a perceived weak schedule, they did possess the ball for 55% against Bosnia-Herzegovina, a whopping 70% versus Iran, 57% versus Nigeria and 61% of the time against the Swiss.

The Maracana also fired 29 shots in their last match with 22 going on goal (76%), giving them 47 total shots with 35 on net (75%) in the past two matches combined. For the tournament, Argentina has 77 shots, with 49 on goal (64%). After generating only two corner-kick chances in their World Cup opener, they have produced 35 corner kicks over the past three contests, including 13 versus Switzerland. The Maracana have played a very clean tournament as well, with just one offsides call, and 24 total fouls and one yellow card (Rojo) in group play.

However, in the Round of 16, they were whistled for a whopping 19 fouls versus the Swiss, including three yellow cards (Rojo, di Maria and defender Ezequiel Garay). Rojo is not allowed to play on Saturday because of his two bookings. Argentina needs to stay disciplined because Belgium is likely to employ a defense-heavy game plan on Saturday.

Belgium has a pedestrian six goals in four World Cup matches, with four of those coming from substitute players (midfielders Marouane Fellaini, Dries Mertens and forwards Divock Origi and Romelu Lukaku), which shows the team's incredible depth. Starting defender Jan Vertonghen recorded the lone tally versus South Korea at the 78th minute to give his team its third straight win in the tournament, and it was midfielder Kevin De Bruyne scoring first against the Americans at the 93rd minute in the Round of 16 before assisting on Lukaku's tally 12 minutes later. Lukaku, whose underwhelming performance in group play led to his benching on Tuesday, was also instrumental in creating De Bruyne's tally, as his size (221 pounds), strength and quickness overmatched the U.S. defenders.

Belgium completely dominated the Americans in that victory, outshooting them 38-14 (27-9 in shots on goal) and producing a corner-kick advantage of 19 to 4. For the tournament, the Red Devils have 81 total shots, including 55 on goal (68%). Belgium held a possession advantage in each of their first two games, with 65% possession versus Algeria and 53% against Russia, but possessed the ball for only 49% and 47% of the time in their most recent two matches. But they have also been extremely dangerous with their challenges with 72 fouls and five yellow cards issued to midfielders Moussa Dembele and Axel Witsel, and defensemen Vincent Kompany, Toby Alderweireld and Vertonghen.

But Belgium's defense remains top-notch, with the only two goals allowed this tournament coming off a penalty kick as the result of Vertonghen's silly decision to grab his opponent by the arm in the box, and a 107th-minute tally by the Americans in a match they led by two goals at the time. Red Devils goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois has shown that he is clearly one of the better netminders in the world, making five saves in the win over USA. Belgium's top-notch defense could give Argentina a lot of trouble, just like Switzerland did.

[StarDust Bum]

Argentina vs. Belgium

July 4, 2014


Argentina vs. Belgium

Date/Time: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Estadio Nacional de Brasilia
Location: Brasilia, Brazil

Sportsbook.ag Line:
Argentina +120, Belgium +250, Tie after Regulation +225
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +130, Under -149)

Two teams coming off grueling extra-time victories in the Round of 16 will collide in Saturday's quarterfinals when Argentina meets Belgium.

Argentina has won all four of its matches in this tournament, with all four victories coming by a one-goal margin. After edging Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-1 and escaping past Iran 1-0, the Maracana outlasted Nigeria 3-2 to clinch Group F. In Tuesday's Round of 16 contest, Argentina failed to score until the 118th minute in a 1-0 win over Switzerland.

Belgium's World Cup fate has been the same as its opponent, winning all four of its matches, and all four of those victories coming by one goal. They edged Algeria 2-1 and posted back-to-back, 1-0 shutout wins over Russia and South Korea before holding off USA 2-1 in the knockout round. All six tournament goals for the Red Devils have come at least 70 minutes into each match with the half-dozen tallies coming at minutes 70, 78, 80, 88, 93 and 105. But these wins came with a price, as several of their key players were hurting on the road to their first quarterfinal berth since 1986.

Defender Thomas Vermaelen didn't play on Tuesday because of an injured hamstring, while right back Anthony Vanden Borre (cracked fibula) and defender Laurent Ciman (strained abductor) were unable to suit up either. Argentina opened the single-elimination tournament minus forward Sergio Aguero, who is doubtful to play in the quarterfinals because of a thigh injury.

Forward Lionel Messi has arguably been the best player in the World Cup, and has carried Argentina with four of his team's seven goals, and he also set up teammate Angel di Maria's one-timer with a perfect pass at the 118th minute to escape past Switzerland in the Round of 16. The other two tallies for the Maracana came on a fortunate own goal by Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Marcos Rojo's game-winner versus Nigeria. Although Argentina has not dominated in this tournament as many experts expected they would versus a perceived weak schedule, they did possess the ball for 55% against Bosnia-Herzegovina, a whopping 70% versus Iran, 57% versus Nigeria and 61% of the time against the Swiss.

The Maracana also fired 29 shots in their last match with 22 going on goal (76%), giving them 47 total shots with 35 on net (75%) in the past two matches combined. For the tournament, Argentina has 77 shots, with 49 on goal (64%). After generating only two corner-kick chances in their World Cup opener, they have produced 35 corner kicks over the past three contests, including 13 versus Switzerland. The Maracana have played a very clean tournament as well, with just one offsides call, and 24 total fouls and one yellow card (Rojo) in group play.

However, in the Round of 16, they were whistled for a whopping 19 fouls versus the Swiss, including three yellow cards (Rojo, di Maria and defender Ezequiel Garay). Rojo is not allowed to play on Saturday because of his two bookings. Argentina needs to stay disciplined because Belgium is likely to employ a defense-heavy game plan on Saturday.

Belgium has a pedestrian six goals in four World Cup matches, with four of those coming from substitute players (midfielders Marouane Fellaini, Dries Mertens and forwards Divock Origi and Romelu Lukaku), which shows the team's incredible depth. Starting defender Jan Vertonghen recorded the lone tally versus South Korea at the 78th minute to give his team its third straight win in the tournament, and it was midfielder Kevin De Bruyne scoring first against the Americans at the 93rd minute in the Round of 16 before assisting on Lukaku's tally 12 minutes later. Lukaku, whose underwhelming performance in group play led to his benching on Tuesday, was also instrumental in creating De Bruyne's tally, as his size (221 pounds), strength and quickness overmatched the U.S. defenders.

Belgium completely dominated the Americans in that victory, outshooting them 38-14 (27-9 in shots on goal) and producing a corner-kick advantage of 19 to 4. For the tournament, the Red Devils have 81 total shots, including 55 on goal (68%). Belgium held a possession advantage in each of their first two games, with 65% possession versus Algeria and 53% against Russia, but possessed the ball for only 49% and 47% of the time in their most recent two matches. But they have also been extremely dangerous with their challenges with 72 fouls and five yellow cards issued to midfielders Moussa Dembele and Axel Witsel, and defensemen Vincent Kompany, Toby Alderweireld and Vertonghen.

But Belgium's defense remains top-notch, with the only two goals allowed this tournament coming off a penalty kick as the result of Vertonghen's silly decision to grab his opponent by the arm in the box, and a 107th-minute tally by the Americans in a match they led by two goals at the time. Red Devils goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois has shown that he is clearly one of the better netminders in the world, making five saves in the win over USA. Belgium's top-notch defense could give Argentina a lot of trouble, just like Switzerland did.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's WCup Tips

July 4, 2014

Belgium vs. Argentina (ABC 12:00 p.m. ET)

The second pair of quarterfinals take place on Saturday, and two more excellent matches are anticipates. Argentina are the favourites to qualify for the final from this half of the draw, but can someone else cause a surprise?

First up Argentina face Belgium in Brasilia. Both teams put in unconvincing performances in their last 16 matches, before coming through after extra time. That half an hour of football will have had an effect on both teams, and the temperature in Brasilia, while nothing on what we have seen in the far north of the country, will be high. It could lead to a rather slow, patient game with few goals.

Argentina were dreadful for much of their game against Switzerland. There was no cohesion to the team, and the Swiss could well have nicked it. Angel Di Maria scored the 118th minute winner, but the Real Madrid man, having ended the season so well, has been completely off the pace at this World Cup, which has been a major source of Argentina’s problems. The squad does not have quite the depth in quality of some others, and so only one enforced change will be made: left-back Marcos Rojo is suspended, so left-footed centre-back José Maria Basanta looks set to fill in.

Belgium have somehow won all four games at this World Cup (admittedly against four fairly average opponents), but there has been little from their performances to suggest that they are capable of winning the World Cup. Having crashed from 500/1 in 2010 to going off at 13/1 to win the World Cup, there is a sense that Belgium have become overhyped. Nonetheless, they are still here and deserve credit.

Argentina are the 23/20 favourites with Sportsbook.ag, and this looks a price to be piled into. The vast numbers of Argentines pouring into Brazil will almost make the match a home game for Alejandro Sabella’s side. The importance of having the crowd behind you was emphasised hugely in Brazil’s win over Colombia. Like Brazil, Argentina seem to thrive under pressure and have a way of getting the job done when they’re not playing well. A draw is 11/5 with Belgium 27/10 to win inside 90 minutes. The ‘To Qualify’ market has Argentina at 5/9 and Belgium 157/100.

Bookies are expecting a low-scoring game: over 2.5 goals is 29/20 with the under option a 61/100 shot. In the first goalscorer market Lionel Messi leads the way at 14/5 and, for once, this may not be a bad price on him breaking the deadlock.

Top Bet: Argentina to win at 23/20

Costa Rica vs. Netherlands (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

The last quarterfinal, and the fifth last game of the whole World Cup, sees Netherlands play Costa Rica at the Fonte Nova in Salvador. Costa Rica are the surprise packages of the World Cup, but it is a 5/22 shot that their great journey will come to an end tonight against Holland, the only team left to have won all their games so far. Los Ticos played for over an hour against Greece with 10 men before winning on penalties.

The Dutch were five minutes from going out of the World Cup, before an extraordinary turnaround of goals in the 88th and 90th minutes put them through and sent Mexico home. The draw has opened out nicely for Louis van Gaal’s side - it’s not often you get to play a side as weak on paper as Costa Rica in a World Cup quarter-final.

Nigel De Jong is out of the World Cup with a groin strain, and so the impressive and versatile Daley Blind will step into defensive midfield, with Bruno Martins Indi playing on the left. Either that or Leroy Fer will come in as a straight swap. For Costa Rica, Oscar Duarte is suspended, and he will have to be wary of tiredness creeping into members of his squad after going the full distance against Greece.

I feel Costa Rica may have been unfairly written off here. While Arjen Robben is truly exceptional, this Dutch team looks pretty ordinary otherwise. Costa Rica managed to top the ‘group of death’, and the gritty win over Greece showed their mental strength. They have possibly the goalkeeper of the tournament in Keylor Navas, a defence that has conceded just twice in four matches, and a quick, dangerous forward in Joel Campbell. They are 6/1 to win in normal time and 7/2 to qualify. Holland are 1/2 to win, and a draw in 90 minutes is priced up at 63/20.

Holland have improved steadily throughout games, and Costa Rica will tire. As this happens, Robben’s influence will grow and, in the end, I expect the Oranje to get through. It may be worth getting on the half-time draw at 11/10. Both these sides played out exceptionally dull first halves in their last 16 ties, and Costa Rica have the ability to frustrate their opponents.

Top Bet: Draw at half-time at 11/10