The Bum's WCup - Group Breakdown

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Sunday's WCup Action

June 14, 2014


Group E: Switzerland vs. Ecuador (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Sportsbook.ag Line
Switzerland +135, Ecuador +190, Tie +205
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +170, Under -222)

Group E play of the 2014 World Cup opens on Sunday afternoon with what should be a tight matchup between Switzerland and Ecuador.

Ecuador made it to their third World Cup in four renewals by finishing above well-fancied Uruguay in CONMEBOL qualifying, and can land decent outsider odds by beating Switzerland in Group E's opening fixture. The South Americans improved on their early exit in 2002 when emerging from a group containing hosts Germany, Poland and Costa Rica four years later. They've won three and lost four of seven World Cup matches since debuting in 2002, prevailing in their first in Germany against Poland, so backing a draw in Brazil seems a fool's errand.

Reinaldo Rueda's men pit their wits against a Switzerland outfit managed by wily former Bayern Munich coach Ottmar Hitzfeld, but the Europeans could arrive in Brazil somewhat undercooked after an undeniably straightforward preliminary campaign.Seven wins and three draws from 10 qualifiers launched the Swiss into the FIFA world rankings top-10, but the fact that Iceland – who have never qualified for the World Cup – finished a distant second in their group tempers that form line. Erratic recent performances offer little indication as to how they might fare in the land of samba, with a 1-0 autumn win against Brazil and a 2-2 March draw with Croatia sandwiching a 2-1 loss to South Korea among other results.

Switzerland exited early in 2010 despite beating eventual winners Spain in their opener, but Ecuador – who have held Argentina twice since last June – have enough quality to ensure that only the former of those eventualities can occur in their home continent.

Group E: France vs. Honduras (ESPN, 3:00 p.m. ET)

Sportsbook.ag Line
France -400, Honduras +750, Tie +450
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +120, Under -149)

Group E play of the 2014 World Cup continues on Sunday with France heavily favored to breeze past Honduras.

France travels to a fifth successive World Cup with their usual roster full of talent, but Didier Deschamps' side's chaotic qualifying campaign – allied with their erratic tournament form – makes them a tough team to trust in Brazil. Deschamps' best 11 will feature seasoned performers Hugo Lloris, Patrice Evra and Franck Ribery, while much is expected of World Cup debutants Karim Benzema, Paul Pogba and Raphael Varane.

However, being a gifted bunch hasn't stopped France imploding at recent World Cups. The last time Les Bleus won their opening fixture was against South Africa 16 years ago, when they went on to become champions for the first and only time. A farcical trophy defense in Japan and South Korea four years later began with Fabien Barthez, Marcel Desailly, Patrick Vieira, Thierry Henry and company going down 1-0 against Senegal, who were playing in their first World Cup. A brace of opening-day 0-0 ties against Switzerland and Uruguay then followed in the last two editions.

However, though betting on another low-scoring bore draw is a tempting prospect, the 12 fixtures featuring either France or Honduras between September 10 and mid-May produced a whopping combined total of 43 goals.

With that in mind, a split-stake strategy on 2-2 and 3-3 draws should be implemented for this match, but Deschamps' men are worth tracking as their campaign unfolds. France followed up World Cup final appearances in 1998 and 2006 with group-stage exits in 2002 and 2010, a pattern that suggests they'll go well again in Brazil.

Group F: Argentina vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina (ESPN, 6:00 p.m. ET)

Sportsbook.ag Line
Argentina -277, Bosnia-Herzegovina +550, Tie +350
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over -125, Under -105)

Group F play of the 2014 World Cup begins on Sunday afternoon with Argentina heavily favored to beat Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Despite the exile of Juventus' Carlos Tevez from their roster, Argentina have the firepower to justify their status as second favorites at neighbors Brazil's World Cup party, and Alejandro Sabella's men should possess too much class for Group F second favorites Bosnia-Herzegovina. A frightening Albiceleste forward contingent containing Sergio Aguero, Gonzalo Higuain and four-time world player of the year Lionel Messi will be unleashed upon the tournament debutants, with goals expected to rain down on Safet Susic's side.

The Europeans only lost one qualifier and in goalkeeper Asmir Begovic, midfielder Miralem Pjanic and striker Edin Dzeko, they possess individuals worthy of their places among the planet's finest. Subsequent clashes with Iran and Nigeria should see them accrue two wins that deliver them to the last 16 at the first attempt, but a 2-0 loss to Argentina before the World Cup draw was made gives an accurate reflection of their chances against Sabella's side in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday.

The aforementioned Argentine forward trio’s combined club strike tally came in at just under 100 during the 2013-14 season and the last winners on South American soil will frighten every defense that they encounter in Brazil, but their own backline proved far from impregnable in qualifying. Argentina conceded seven goals in their final four fixtures when topping the CONMEBOL preliminary section. With that in mind, backing Messi and company to win a match in which both teams score, looks the way to squeeze as much value as possible from this fixture.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's World Cup Tips

June 15, 2014


Germany vs. Portugal (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)

Germany face Portugal in what is definitely Monday’s Game of the Day at the Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador. The game pits two of Europe’s most likely winners against each other, and the result will probably determine the winner of Group F, unless either Ghana or USA causes a shock.

After arriving on the world stage in 2010, this German generation has reached two semi-finals before going out. It is a generation rich in attacking talent - very different from what they used to be like: defensive, physical, five in defence. Many people earmarked this tournament as one where Germany might be the team to beat, but the hype has cooled over the last six months. The squad does not look as good as the one Joachim Löw took to Euro 2012, but a succession of injuries has robbed Germany of some of their best players. Marco Reus will be a particularly big loss.

They only go into the competition with one recognised striker, and although Miroslav Klose’s World Cup record is stellar, he is now 36. Travel times, as well have locations and times of games, have conspired against Germany.

Portugal’s main strength is the interesting link-up play between midfielders…. ah who am I kidding? It’s Cristiano Ronaldo. While they are not quite a ‘one-man team’, their whole strategy is set up to get the best out of the current World’s Best Player. The rest of the team is competent, with João Moutinho and Fabio Coentrão particularly good. With Cristiano in the side, Portugal will have a chance in any match they play.

Germany are the 19/20 favourites with Sportsbook.ag, but I can’t have any of that. Not one area of the team is hugely convincing, and I’m swaying towards backing Portugal at 5/2. The draw is a 13/5 shot. Interestingly there have been no draws in the ten games so far in Brazil.

Let’s have a look at the goalscorer markets where, despite representing the underdog, Cristiano Ronaldo leads the betting at 4/1. He scored 51 goals in 47 matches this year and is now probably just ahead of arch-rival Lionel Messi. The German goalscorer I like is 6/1 Thomas Müller, the joint winner of the 2010 Golden Boot. He is a strange, ungainly type of player, but he has the intelligence to be in the right place at the right time, and is a fantastically hard worker.

This World Cup has been much more open than people expected, and I predict this game will be similar. Both teams to score is a 20/27 shot, but I prefer over 2.5 goals at 4/5. It has been very refreshing seeing proactive attitudes from most teams in Brazil, and I see no reason why Germany and Portugal will be any different.

Top Bet: Portugal to win at 5/2

United States vs. Ghana (ESPN, 6:00 p.m.)

We are still waiting for our first draw of the 2014 World Cup. And while the tournament has been much more open than expected, I am all over the 5/2 on Ghana and USA to draw. With Portugal and Germany the other teams in the group, this is a game neither team can afford to lose. It would all but end their tournament. Bookmakers are finding it almost impossible to split the two teams, with USA the very slight favourite at 8/5 against the 17/10 Ghanaians.

I would have Ghana as slight favourites. Although the USA’s long travel schedule will not yet have taken its toll, the conditions in Natal will be more favourable towards Ghana. Kwesi Appiah’s Black Stars are a real team, and they have a strength in depth virtually unrivalled on their continent. They were the most impressive team in African qualifying, scoring 26 in 8 games and conceding just 5.

This is a more youthful USA side than in previous World Cups, but I have a concern as to where the goals are going to come from, particularly after Jozy Altidore suffered a confidence-sapping season in the English Premier League at Sunderland.

Top Bet: Draw at 5/2

Nigeria vs. Iran (ESPN, 3:00 p.m.)

Iran face Nigeria in the middle game on Monday. The game comes from Group F, where Argentina and Bosnia are the other sides. Iran are simultaneously the most unknown and the least highly rated team at this World Cup. They are coached by the vastly experienced Carlos Queiroz, who is an expert in the art of building a solid defence. They scored only eight goals in eight games when they won their qualifying group, but conceded just twice. Their pre-tournament friendlies ended 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 and a 2-0 win.

It is easy to see them frustrating Nigeria who look short of creative talent. Their most creative midfielder is Jon Obi Mikel, who plays a very defensive role for Chelsea, and they may struggle to break down an unambitious Iranian side. My favourite bet here is under 2.5 goals at 69/100.

Nigeria go into the match as the 19/20 favourites - they have a strong and quick front three, but the question is how often they can get the ball to them. A draw is available at 5/2, with an Iran victory a 3/1 shot.

Top Bet: Under 2.5 goals at 69/100

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Wednesday's WCup Tips

June 17, 2014


Chile vs. Spain (ESPN, 6:00 p.m. ET)

Spain vs Chile is surely the biggest game of Wednesday’s trio of soccer matches. After an astonishing 5-1 humbling at the hands of the Netherlands on Friday night, Spain are in the last chance saloon if they are to prove to the world that their style of patient passing football, ‘tiki-taka’, is still competitive at the highest level. Chile, meanwhile, got past Australia 3-1. They started the game in rip-roaring fashion, going two nil up inside the first quarter of an hour, but struggled to deal with Australia’s crossing thereafter. They only sealed the game thanks to a last minute strike from Jean Beausejour.

Spain are the 61/100 favourites with Sportsbook.ag, but after their traumatic result of just a few days ago this seems far too short, and I find the 4/1 about a Chile win much more appetising. The Chileans have the same devastating pace on the counter-attack that the Netherlands do. Their defence is suspect, but the primary weakness there is height, however Spain don’t put in many crosses at all, so this disadvantage may not be preyed upon by Spain. Spain are not a team that takes any notice of the opposition; they play their way, whoever the opponent may be.

A draw is available at 13/4 - this would be a great result for Chile, and would all but see them through. These are two very bold teams, and the game could be high-scoring. Chile aren’t a ‘grinding out a draw’ kind of side, but the price isn’t bad.

The most interesting tactical question of the match is whether Spain persist with Diego Costa as a centre-forward. He has just had a blistering season at Atletico Madrid, but Spain simply do not play to his strengths. Do they try and adapt their game to him, or do they play Cesc Fabregas as a ‘false number 9’? Spain’s attack was very blunt against a relatively inexperienced Dutch defence. Someone like Pedro, a real winger with more penetration and directness than many in the team, would be a good addition from Del Bosque.

In the First Goalscorer market, Diego Costa leads the way at 9/2, but this price looks much too short with Costa’s lack of fitness and how he doesn’t fit into the Spanish system. A better bet for a Spain goalscorer would be 10/1 Xabi Alonso, who takes penalties. Chile’s defence is not the most careful, and it is easy to imagine them diving into rash challenges in the box.

The nicest bet here, however, is Alexis Sanchez of Chile to break the deadlock at 8/1. While he often becomes a secondary star at Barcelona, he is well and truly the main man for Chile. He broke the deadlock against Australia, and with 23 goals from 66 internationals, he looks well placed to plant a dagger into Spanish hearts with the first goal.

Top Bet: Alexis Sanchez to score first at 8/1

Netherlands vs. Australia (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

The first game of the day sees Australia meet Netherlands in Porto Alegre. Australia are comfortably the weakest-looking team in the group. They are an inexperienced bunch but, apart from a nightmare first 15 minutes, gave much-fancied Chile a bit of a scare in their first game, despite going down to a 3-1 defeat. The Netherlands stunned Spain 5-1 and are now in pole-position to win the group. They are the 9/50 favourites, with Australia all the way out at 25/2 and the draw a 13/2 chance.

None of these make a huge amount of appeal, and there is more interest in the goalscorer markets. Apart from defenders from set-pieces, Arjen Robben, Robin van Persie and Wesley Sneijder are the only real Dutch goal threats. Of these, Robben at 4/1 looks the most attractive after his brace on Friday. Tim Cahill plays up front for Australia and is renowned as one of the best jumpers in world football. Cross it to him and there’s always a chance he’ll leap up onto the end of it. He’s a 10/1 shot.

Top Bet: Arjen Robben to score first at 4/1

Croatia vs. Cameroon (ESPN, 3:00 p.m. ET)

The last game of the day is from Group A and sees Cameroon meet Croatia in the Arena Amazônia in Manaus. Both teams lost their first game, but in very different ways. Croatia were hugely unfortunate to lose 3-1 to hosts Brazil in the tournament opener, having taken the lead; Cameroon, meanwhile, were extremely poor in a 1-0 (with two perfectly decent goals disallowed for offside) defeat to Mexico that left them with a huge uphill task to qualify.

Croatia are the 49/100 favourites. Cameroon are 5/1 and a draw is available at 7/2. Croatia are clearly better, but I’m happy to leave their price and instead look at prices opposing Cameroon goals. Alex Song, who often plays at centre-back for Barcelona, is the Indomitable Lions’ most creative midfielder, which says a lot. The team frequently looks lost in the final third.

Many people saw Croatia’s defence as a potential weakness, but they managed to keep out Brazil for much of their game in Sao Paulo, and 20/21 on Niko Kovac’s side keeping a clean sheet seems like a good bet.

Top Bet: Croatia to keep a clean sheet at 20/21

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's WCup Tips

June 18, 2014


Uruguay vs. England (ESPN, 3:00 p.m. ET)

Uruguay face England in Thursday’s most important World Cup match at the Arena São Paulo. Both teams lost their opening group matches, but in very different circumstances. While England came out of an unlucky 2-1 defeat to Italy with some credit, there was some serious soul-searching to be done in the Uruguayan camp as the two-time champions went down 3-1 to Costa Rica.

Italy look very likely to qualify, and unless Costa Rica prove that their victory over Uruguay was no flash in the pan, this game could go a long way to deciding who follows Italy to the knockout stages. A defeat would be almost fatal. A draw would be a better result for Roy Hodgsons’s England side - they would back themselves to get a better result against Costa Rica than Uruguay do against Italy (assuming Italy beat Costa Rica on Friday).

The big team news is that Luis Suarez returns for Uruguay. He terrorised the English Premier League last year and will be the key if the South Americans are to unlock the English defence. For England, the main question comes over the role of Wayne Rooney. Will he play through the middle, or on the left. Will he play at all?

England’s good performance against Uruguay has seen them backed into 91/100 favourites with Sportsbook.ag, but this seems too short against a side that, whatever its faults, has good tournament experience. Uruguay are 14/5 with a draw chalked up at 27/10.

Traditionally, both these teams have had their strength in defence, but I’d question whether that is the case this year. England creative lots of chances against Italy, and they have a less formidable defence than at most past tournaments, with full-backs Glen Johnson and Leighton Baines particularly suspect defensively.

Likewise Uruguay aren’t great at the back. Diego Godin had a fine season with Atletico Madrid, but his partner is 33 year-old Diego Lugano. Never the quickest, Lugano’s lack of pace has now become a severe problem. It forces Uruguay to sit very deep and play too uncreative destroyers in central-midfield, both of whom have disciplinary problems. Daniel Sturridge, who leads the England attack, is very quick and can certainly exploit this lack of pace. I’m very keen on over 2.5 goals at 19/20.

The joint leaders of the First Goalscorer market are Liverpool duo Sturridge and Suarez, both at 4/1. With superior service and without a strike partner to take half his chances, Sturridge looks a better shout at the prices. Raheem Sterling, who almost broke the deadlock for England against Italy and was their outstanding player, is now as short as 7/1 to score first. Rickie Lambert will be England’s Plan B - it is easy to foresee him scoring late on.

Top Bet: Over 2.5 goals - 27/10

Colombia vs. Ivory Coast (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

In the first game of the day, Colombia meet Ivory Coast. Having been backed from 150/1 three years ago into around 25/1 now, Colombia are tipped by many to do well in Brazil. They were very convincing in a 3-0 win against a limited Greece side, and they are 11/10 favourites to all but seal qualification with a win in Brasília. Ivory Coast came from behind to beat Japan 2-1 in their first game, putting them in a great position to qualify.

Ivory Coast are available at 23/10 here, and a draw is 5/2, but I’d be inclined to get on Colombia. They have the attacking weapons to open up the ageing Ivorian defence. Juan Cuadrado was excellent on the wing against Greece, while James Rodriguez in behind Teofilo Gutierrez both have lots of goals in them.

In Kolo Touré and Sol Bamba, Ivory Coast have a defence that is vulnerable to pace, and Colombia certainly have that.

Top Bet: Colombia to win at 11/10

Greece vs. Japan (ESPN, 6:00 p.m. ET)

In a real ‘do or die’ game in Natal, both Japan and Greece know that a defeat is likely to end their participation at the World Cup, while a draw would not be of much more help. This is a must-win. Japan played some good stuff in their 2-1 defeat to Ivory Coast, but as so often, they were let down in both penalty areas. Their finishing wasn’t good enough, and their defending was naive. Everywhere else, they were excellent.

Greece were totally outplayed in a 3-0 defeat to Colombia in a match they did not for one moment look like getting anything out of. There is a chronic lack of creative players in their team, although their defence is not the worst.

Japan should win this one. They are the 11/10 favourites and rightfully so. Greece are at 11/4 with a draw at 5/2. While Greece’s centre-backs are good, their two full-backs (particularly left-back Jose Holebas) often get caught far too high up the field. Japan have the pace and the quick passing to exploit that. Shinji Okazaki, who can play both wide right and up front, looks a good pick for first goalscorer at 6/1. He has scored 38 in 76 goals, and has recently become the regular goalscorer Japan have craved.

Top Bets: Japan to win at 11/10, Shinji Okazaki to score first at 6/1

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's WCup Tips

June 22, 2014


Croatia vs. Mexico (ESPN2, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Croatia play Mexico in what is effectively a play-off for who qualifies for the last 16 of the World Cup. The game takes place at the Arena Pernambuco in Recife and Croatia need to win to qualify. A draw or a defeat, and Mexico will progress.

Both sides have been impressive at the World Cup so far: Croatia were hugely unlucky to lose 3-1 to Brazil in the tournament’s opening game. They matched the Brazilians until a highly dubious penalty went against Niko Kovac’s side in the 71st minute. They then dismantled an appalling Cameroon side 4-0 in a ruthless display of attacking football. Mario Mandzukic, the wantaway Bayern Munich striker, scored twice.

Mexico faced Cameroon first up and, after having two perfectly good goals ruled out for offside, eventually broke through to win 1-0 thanks to Oribe Peralta’s strike. El Tri then put in a superb display to frustrate Brazil to a 0-0 draw, with goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa sensational.Their two results have been particularly notable because their defence was seen as a weakness before the tournament.

Neither team has any issues with injury or suspension, although there is a chance Mexico boss Miguel Herrera could introduce Manchester United forward into the team. However, this looks unlikely given that a draw would send his team through.

Croatia is the very slight favourites at odds of 3/1 with sportsbook.ag, and given the confidence with which they played when needing a win against Cameroon, this price looks quite attractive. Worries about a vulnerable defence have been eased a bit with impressive performances from Dejan Lovren and Sime Vrsaljko, while the midfield is packed with invention and creativity. Wingers Ivica Olic (naturally a striker) and Ivan Perisic (normally plays out wide, but has the physique of a centre-forward) both have plenty of goals in them.

Mexico is available at 8/5, but given that a draw would see them through, fanciers of the Mexicans will be more tempted by quotes of 5/2 about a stalemate. However the pace of Croatia’s attack could give them a hard time, and their centre-backs, while strong and brave, are not quick.

Over 2.5 goals at 11/10 looks much too long. Both sides’ strength is arguably their attack, and given the way teams have approached crucial matches at the World Cup so far, it is surprising to see anything longer than evens on a high-scoring game.

In the first goalscorer market, Mario Mandzukic leads the betting at 9/2, but my favourite bet here is the 6/1 Ivica Olic, who just seems to keep on going. His fantastic work rate means he gets a lot of chances, and he gave Benoît Assou-Ekotto of Cameroon a torrid time the last time Croatia played. For Mexico, Oribe Peralta is 6/1 with Giovani Dos Santos 8/1.

Top bets: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10, Ivica Olic to score first at 6/1

Brazil vs. Cameroon (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

The other match in Group A sees probably the biggest mismatch of the tournament. Brazil, needing a point to qualify and a win to all but guarantee winning the group, play a Cameroon side that has been the worst team at the World Cup so far.

Having offered nothing in a 1-0 defeat by Mexico, Cameroon, nicknamed the ‘Indomitable Lions’ disintegrated completely in an indisciplined 4-0 loss to Croatia. Alex Song was sent off, and Assou-Ekotto and Benjamin Moukandjo started fighting each other on the pitch. Even at 21/1, Cameroon make no appeal.

Brazil is as short as 9/100, with a draw at 19/1, but there is no appeal in this market. Brazil is 2/1 just to keep a clean sheet. There may be more value in the first goalscorer market. Neymar is the market leader at 5/2, but for someone who isn't a centre-forward this should be avoided.

Fred has lived up to his reputation as Brazil’s weakness with two poor performances. The best bet here is to get on Oscar to score first at 9/2. He was Brazil’s brightest spark against Croatia and plays with more freedom for Brazil than for Chelsea.

Top bet: Oscar to score first at 9/2

Netherlands vs. Chile (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

The Netherlands face Chile in one Group B at the Arena Corinthians in São Paulo. Both teams have already qualified, notably at the expense of Spain, so this match is a decider for who wins the group. Chile need to win, or they face the likely task of a game against the hosts Brazil in the last 16, so there is plenty to play for.

Before the tournament started, Netherlands was the favorites for this game, but Chile have been backed into very slight favouritism at 31/20. There is good reason for this - Sampaoli’s men were more convincing in their defeat of Australia than the Dutch were, and they probably afforded Spain fewer chances than Holland. A Dutch victory is at 8/5 with a draw a 5/2 shot.

Bookmakers are expecting a high-scoring game, and with less at stake than usual in World Cup matches, they should not be disappointed and over 3.5 goals is as short as 17/10. This is a decent price given that these are two teams with much better attacks than defences. Chile is highly vulnerable to crosses, and the Netherlands should send many more of these over than Spain did. Chile has more attacking options than almost anyone in the tournament, and their attacking movement is a joy to behold.

Top bet: Over 3.5 goals at 17/10

Australia vs. Spain (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Well, who would have thought it? The game between Australia and Spain, instead of being a match between the group winners and the whipping-boys, is in fact a battle to avoid the wooden spoon. Spain, whatever the outcome here, will leave Brazil embarrassed. They have utterly failed to realise that their tiki-taka style of football has been worked out, and they have been well and truly blasted off their perch.

Australia has lost twice, but scorelines of 3-1 and 3-2 demonstrate that Australia have made an excellent account of themselves. Their side is young, and they have given defences some real problems. having been around 18/1 to win this match before the tournament started, the two sides’ contrasting fortunes has seen Australia shortening into 11/2. Spain are 2/5 with a draw 17/4.

Spain’s defense has been so porous, with seven conceded from two games, that Both Teams To Score simply cannot be ignored at 10/13. They struggle to deal with crosses, and in Tim Cahill Australia have one of the best jumpers in world football. He could give Pique and Ramos some serious problems.

Top bet: Both Teams To Score at 10/13

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's Group A Action

June 22, 2014


Group A: Cameroon vs. Brazil (ESPN2, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Sportsbook.ag Line
Brazil -909, Cameroon +1900, Tie +850
Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (Over Even, Under -120)

Brazil was a heavy favorite to win the 2014 World Cup, but they have not fared as well as many expected them to in group play. They face Cameroon on Monday in a match that could shake things up in the knockout rounds.

Cameroon was given the worst odds to advance to the knockout rounds out of Group A and they have shown why with two losses in a row. They will not be advancing in the tournament, but could throw things off for the home team with a shocking win Monday.

Cameroon played a close game against Mexico in their first game of group play, but they came away with a 1-0 loss and were much worse in their second match. Cameroon played against Croatia and they were dominated right from the start. Eleven minutes into the game, Ivica Olic scored to put Croatia up 1-0 and that goal would have been all Croatia needed, but they wound up pounding their opponent by a 4-0 score. Cameroon had just seven shots on goal compared to Croatia’s 14 and they have not scored in the tournament so far. Croatia added goals at the 48-minute, 61-minute and 73-minute marks in the blowout. Cameroon will be sent home after their match with Brazil, but they could make a mark on the tournament by upsetting the home favorites.

Brazil played against Mexico in their second game of group play and despite being expected to win, they were able to only come away with a 0-0 tie. They ran into a hot goaltender and couldn’t find the back of the net. A win over Cameroon is now monumental for Brazil’s chances to win this tournament as the host and pre-World Cup favorite to win it all.

Brazil was able to create some opportunities in their match against Mexico, but the efforts of Guillermo Ochoa were too much for them to handle. Ochoa made some stellar saves in the first half, and not many goaltenders around the world could’ve done what Ochoa did. Brazil outshot Mexico 8-3 on goal and had possession of the ball for 53% of the game. They must, however, simplify things in the offensive zone. Chances are good for the heavily-favored squad, but they need to be able to finish. If Brazil does not beat Cameroon, they could be in serious jeopardy of advancing.

Group A: Croatia vs. Mexico (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Sportsbook.ag Line
Croatia +150, Mexico +160, Tie +250
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +115, Under -135)

Croatia and Mexico meet Monday afternoon in what will be a Group A match with massive implications in terms of who will be advancing to the knockout round.

Croatia was unable to pick up a victory over Brazil in its opening match of group play, but the club certainly competed throughout the course of that game. They followed up that loss with a dominant showing against Cameroon and have at least given themselves a chance to advance to the Round of 16. Mexico may not have beaten Brazil in their last game, but they were able to come away with a 0-0 draw. They are now in position to advance past the group stage if they are able to defeat Croatia.

After losing their World Cup opener 3-1 to Brazil, Croatia needed to defeated Cameroon, and they had no problem doing that with a 4-0 blowout. Croatia was dominant in their performance, as they outshot Cameroon 14-7 on goal. They didn’t have much of an edge in time of possession with just 51%, but they made the most of their time with the ball. Eleven minutes into the game, Ivica Olic scored to give Croatia a 1-0 lead, and they piled it on once the second half started. Ivan Perisic made it 2-0 at the 48-minute mark and Mario Mandzukic added two goals at 61 minutes and 73 minutes to give Croatia an impressive victory. A win over Mexico would have them advancing to the knockout round.

Not many people gave Mexico much of a chance against Brazil, but they stood their ground and were able to come away with a scoreless tie. Guillermo Ochoa was monumental in securing that tie for his team, coming away with some really outstanding saves. Brazil was flying all over the field for the entire game, outshooting Mexico 8-3 on goal in the contest. They also had possession for 53% of the game compared to Mexico who had it for just 47%. Ochoa, however, was able to blank Brazil and that now puts Mexico in a great position to advance to the single-elimination round. They will need to beat a Croatia team that can also advance with a victory, so both of these teams will be hungry.

[StarDust Bum]

2014 World Cup Results

June 22, 2014

Betting Results

Group Stages

Wager Results

Favorites-Underdogs 17-9

Draws 6

Over-Under 21-10-1

Group Stages


Thursday, June 12

Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

A Croatia vs. Brazil (-350) 3-1 Favorite Over (2.5)


Friday, June 13

Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

A Mexico (+130) vs. Cameroon 1-0 Favorite Under (2)
B Spain vs. Netherlands (+360) 5-1 Underdog Over (2)
B Chile (-250) vs. Australia 3-1 Favorite Over (2.5)


Saturday, June 14

Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

C Colombia (-120) vs. Greece 3-0 Favorite Over (2.5)
C Cote d' Ivoire (+165) vs. Japan 2-1 Favorite Over (2.5)
D Uruguay vs. Costa Rica (+785) 3-1 Underdog Over (2.5)
D England vs. Italy (+215) 2-1 Underdog Over (2.5)


Sunday, June 15

Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

E Switzerland (+130) vs. Ecuador 2-1 Favorite Over (2.5)
E France (-350) vs. Honduras 3-0 Favorite Over (2.5)
F Argentina (-400) vs. Bosnia 2-1 Favorite Push (3)


Monday, June 16

Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

F Iran vs. Nigeria 0-0 Draw (+250) Under (2.5)
G Germany (+115) vs. Portugal 4-0 Favorite Over (2.5)
G Ghana vs. United States (+180) 2-1 Underdog Over (2.5)


Tuesday, June 17

Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

H Belgium (-400) vs. Algeria 2-1 Favorite Over (2.5)
H Russia vs. South Korea 1-1 Draw (+260) Under (2.5)
A Brazil vs. Mexico 0-0 Draw (+400) Under (2.5)


Wednesday, June 18

Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

A Cameroon vs. Croatia (-160) 4-0 Favorite Over (2.5)
B Spain vs. Chile (+450) 2-0 Underdog Under (3)
B Australia vs. Netherlands (-450) 3-2 Favorite Over (3)


Thursday, June 19

Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

C Colombia (+105) vs. Cote d'Ivoire 2-1 Favorite Over (2.5)
C Japan vs. Greece 0-0 Draw (+275) Under (2.5)
D Uruguay (+285) vs. England 2-1 Underdog Over (2.5)


Friday, June 20

Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

D Italy vs. Costa Rica (+525) 1-0 Underdog Under (2.5)
E Switzerland vs. France (-130) 5-2 Favorite Over (2.5)
E Honduras vs. Ecuador (-165) 2-1 Favorite Over (2.5)


Saturday, June 21

Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

F Argentina (-850) vs. Iran 1-0 Favorite Under (3)
F Nigeria (+350) vs. Bosnia 1-0 Underdog Under (2.5)
G Germany vs. Ghana 2-2 Draw (+475) Over (3)


Sunday, June 22

Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

G United States vs. Portugal 2-2 Draw (+300) Over (2.5)
H Belgium (+120) vs. Russia 1-0 Favorite Under (2.5)
H South Korea vs. Algeria (+200) 4-2 Underdog Over (2)


Monday, June 23

Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

A Cameroon vs. Brazil - - -
A Croatia vs. Mexico - - -
B Australia vs. Spain - - -
B Netherlands vs. Chile - - -


Tuesday, June 24

Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

C Japan vs. Colombia - - -
C Greece vs. Cote d'Ivoire - - -
D Italy vs. Uruguay - - -
D Costa Rica vs. England - - -


Wednesday, June 25

Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

E Honduras vs. Switzerland - - -
E Ecuador vs. France - - -
F Nigeria vs. Argentina - - -
F Bosnia vs. Iran - - -


Thursday, June 26

Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
G United States vs. Germany - - -
G Portugal vs. Ghana - - -
H South Korea vs. Belgium - - -
H Algeria vs. Russia - - -

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's World Cup Tips

June 23, 2014


Italy vs. Uruguay (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Tuesday’s biggest match sees Italy play Uruguay in what is a straight play-off for the last 16. Uruguay need a win, while a draw would see Italy through. Costa Rica are top of the group, and only Italy can realistically leapfrog the World Cup’s real surprise package and secure a date with, most likely, either Ivory Coast or Greece. Both sides were embarrassed by Costa Rica and, for two sides who have won a quarter of the World Cups over history between them, exiting at the group stage is seen as a major failure.

The game takes place at the Estadio das Dunas in Natal, in the north-east of Brazil, at 1 o’clock in the afternoon. The conditions will be very difficult in the searing midday sun, and this will have an effect on the play. Uruguay will have the greater advantage in the conditions: they defend deep, and have players who can burst forward with pace into the opposing half. Interestingly, of the six games to be played in the north of the country between Europeans and non-Europeans, the European side has won just once. And that one occasion was Croatia’s 4-0 win over a Cameroon side that had ten men for most of the match.

Italy are very slight favourites to win the match at 8/5 with Sportsbook.ag, but seeing as they have only scored twice in two games and were awful against Costa Rica. Uruguay are 17/10 to do the job, with a draw at 9/4.

Already in this World Cup there have been two instances of matches where one team needs to win, and the other only needs a draw. Both times the team that has only needed a draw has gone into half-time 0-0, and then won the match. These matches were Mexico 3-1 Croatia and Netherlands 2-0 Chile. The team that needs to win commits more and more men forward as time ebbs away, leaving gaps for the opposition to exploit. Italy to be winning at full-time after going into half-time level is a very tempting 9/2 shot.

Bookmakers are expecting a low-scoring game, with under 2.5 goals at 77/100 and over 2.5 at 1/1. Uruguay’s defence, however, looks a bit overrated, particularly if the ponderous Diego Lugano plays. Meanwhile Oscar Tabarez’s side have the wonderful Luis Suarez at the other end of the pitch - possibly the best striker in world football. If you’re betting on this market I’d be more inclined towards the ‘over’.

In the first goalscorer market, the two main frontmen, Suarez and Mario Balotelli, lead the way at 7/2 and 9/2 respectively. However there are strong calls in Italy for new Borussia Dortmund striker Ciro Immobile to be handed a start. He may make more appeal at 11/2 after a fantastic season with Torino, where he was the top Serie A goalscorer.

Top Bet: Draw/Italy in the half-time/full-time market at 9/2.

England vs. Costa Rica (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

The other match in this group sees England face a Costa Rica side who, as we all expected, have little to play for in the last group stage game. But incredibly, the reason they have nothing to play for is that, after stunning victories over Uruguay and Italy, they are now guaranteed of a place in the knockout rounds for the first time ever. And having been around 10/1 to beat England before the tournament started, they are now as short as 5/2. England, with two close defeats, are 1/1 and a draw is 13/5.

Both sides will rest players for this, particularly England with Roy Hodgson keen to give as many people as possible a taste of tournament football. Adam Lallana, Luke Shaw, Ben Foster, Chris Smalling, Frank Lampard, James Milner, Phil Jones, Ross Barkley and Jack Wilshere will all get their first starts of the tournament.

However the bet I like here is for Daniel Sturridge, one of the two regular starters, to score first. He has looked sharp so far and at 7/2 looks a good prospect against a defence that, while it is brave and organised, may be vulnerable to Sturridge’s pace.

Top Bet: Daniel Sturridge to score first at 7/2

Colombia vs. Japan (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Colombia meet Japan face off in Group C at the Arena Pantanal with both teams almost assured of their fate. Colombia will top the group barring a minor miracle, while Japan would need to win, hope Greece and Ivory Coast draw, and for goal difference to go their way to qualify. Colombia have won both their matches and have been very impressive. They have a wealth of attacking talent and the ability to break down stubborn defences.

Japan have disappointed slightly. Their old weaknesses have come to the fore: they are good in the middle third of the pitch, but struggle to break teams down, while their defence struggles with height and physicality.

Even though they may well rest players, it is very hard to ignore quotes of 6/5 about a Colombia win here. They came second in South American qualifying and are now as short as 25/1 to win their first World Cup. Japan look far too short at 11/5, while a draw is 13/5. However the gulf in class between the sides is such that I am amazed to see odds-against quotes on Colombia.

Top Bet: Colombia to win at 6/5

Ivory Coast vs. Greece (ESPN2, 4:00 p.m. ET)

The match that is likely to decide who follows Colombia into the last 16 from Group C sees Greece face Ivory Coast at the Castelão in Fortaleza, only three degrees south of the equator.

In an amazing twist of fate, Greece - just as dour, defensive and brave as always - find themselves in the same position as before their final group game: two poor performances, one point, and yet bizarrely finding themselves in the position where a win from their final game would see them through. Ivory Coast turned around a 1-0 half-time deficit to beat Japan, before losing 2-1 themselves to Colombia.

The Elephants, with Drogba and the Toure brothers still in the squad, are the 19/20 favourites, but for a team that has developed a deserved reputation as bottlers, this does not look appealing. A Greece win is 27/10, while a draw can be backed at 13/5.

My favourite bet in this match is the half-time draw at 21/20. Despite needing a win, it is against Greece’s nature to be too bold; instead they will sit back and aim to still be in with a chance by half-time.

Top Bet: Draw at half-time at 21/20

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's WCup Tips

June 24, 2014


Argentina vs. Nigeria (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Argentina face Nigeria in one of two simultaneous Group F games, happening at 1 o’clock Brazil time. Argentina have been dealt an extremely favourable draw: not only are they in an easy group, they are also playing all their matches in friendly conditions. This match takes place at the Estadio Beira-Rio, in the far south of Brazil. Hundreds of thousands of Argentines are crossing the border to be in Porto Alegre for the game.

The game is meaningless for Argentina in terms of qualification, but Nigeria still have lots to play for. They need a point to guarantee progress, otherwise they will be sweating on whether or not Iran can beat Bosnia.

Argentina have been underwhelming so far, and needed a last minute piece of Lionel Messi magic to beat Iran. They are heavy favourites here at 11/25 with sportsbook.ag, and despite two iffy performances, I see little from Nigeria to suggest that they can trouble Alejandro Sabella’s side. Backing Argentina +1.5 looks the best option at quotes of 27/20. I expect Argentina, like Brazil, to take this opportunity of a third group game to really kick-start their tournament. Nigeria, because they may not even need a point, make little appeal at either 15/2 to win the match, or 3/1 to take a draw from it.

In the first goalscorer market, Gonzalo Higuain and Sergio Aguero have been very disappointing so far for Argentina, in contrast to the majestic Messi, who is stupidly short at 5/4 to score first. I’m going to stick with fancying Higuain at 5/2 - he has the ability to punish a dodgy Nigerian defence.

Top bet: Argentina -1.5 at 27/20

Iran vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Iran meet Bosnia-Herzegovina at the spectacular Fonte Nova stadium in Salvador. Only one side has anything to play for, but surprisingly that side is Iran, not the fancied debutants Bosnia, who have crashed out after two defeats. Iran were stubborn in a 0-0 with Nigeria, and then suffered last minute heartbreak against Argentina after a wonderfully dogged defensive performance. Carlos Queiroz’s men could even have won the match.

Iran need to win this match, and hope that Nigeria do not beat Argentina, in order to qualify. However they could find it difficult against a Bosnia side who, despite a short-lived visit to this major tournament, look well set for the future. They gave Argentina a good game first up, while bad finishing let them down against Nigeria.

Bosnia play best when given freedom, and the freedom of having nothing to play for makes them appealing at 6/5 to win the game. They will be bolder than in previous matches, where they sacrificed some attacking threat for more defensive solidity, and it didn’t really work. Iran are 11/5 to claim the win they need, while a draw is 12/5.

Surely this time Safet Susic will field the two strikers who were so key in getting them to Brazil together. Vedad Ibisevic and Edin Dzeko scored 18 between them in just 10 games in qualifying, and are 7/2 and 5/2 respectively to break the deadlock. The market leader for Iran is Charlton Athletic striker Reza Ghoochannejhad at 11/2.

Top bet: Bosnia-Herzegovina to win at 6/5

France vs. Ecuador (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

France play Ecuador in one of two Group E matches on Wednesday evening. This game takes place at the famous Maracana in Rio de Janeiro. France only need a point to fully guarantee winning the group, while Ecuador need to equal Switzerland’s result against Honduras to progress to the last 16, where they would likely face an all-South American tie with second-favourites Argentina.

In 3-0 and 5-2 wins over Honduras and Switzerland, France have arguably been the most impressive side at the World Cup so far. They have not been hampered at all by the injury to Franck Ribery, with Mathieu Valbuena admirably taking full control of the creative side of the job. Karim Benzema has scored three times already.

They are the strong favourites to win at 69/100, and given their last two performances there seems little reason to doubt that the French steamroller will come to a halt. Ecuador are 7/2 to claim a win that would 99.9% guarantee their progress, while a draw is a 3/1 chance. Bookies are right in predicting a high-scoring encounter given both sides’ games so far. Over 2.5 is 77/100.

The first goalscorer market for this match is an interesting one. Benzema’s form is stellar, but 3/2 is short enough on him for me to look elsewhere. Ecuador’s centre-backs, Guagua and Erazo, are a potential weakness, and it is easy to foresee 7/2 shot Olivier Giroud bullying them. He links up well with Valbuena and is a good shout. The 7/1 on Enner Valencia, scorer of all three Ecuador goals in Brazil, isn’t as skinny as it might be either.

Top bet: Olivier Giroud to score first at 7/2

Honduras vs. Switzerland (ESPN2, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Honduras, despite two defeats from two, still stand a tiny chance of getting to the knockout stages, but all the attention in Manaus will be on Switzerland, who only need to better Ecuador’s result against France to get through. After a fine opening day win, Ottmar Hitzfeld’s Swiss side were brought crashing back down to earth as their French neighbours spanked them 5-2. Honduras were also outplayed by France, before surrendering a 1-0 lead to lose to Ecuador.

The conditions in Manaus, a city almost unreachable by road in the heart of the Amazon, favour Honduras greatly. Of the three matches at the Arena Amazonia so far, only one favourite has won. The humidity and the heat are testing, particularly to teams like Switzerland who are a) European, and b) reliant on a high-energy style of playing.

All this means 2/5 on Switzerland looks too short, with 333/100 on a draw the best bet, given that if, as expected, France beat Ecuador, it would be enough for Switzerland to qualify. A Honduras win is 6/1.

By far the best bet here is Over 3.5 at evens (1/1) in the Total Cards market (yellow = 1, red = 2, max 3 per player). Before the tournament, Honduras kicked lumps out of England in a friendly; against France they had Wilson Palacios sent off and had three other yellows, while between them Ecuador and Honduras had five yellows last time out. They are a team that is highly aggressive, and relies on fouling to break up the rhythm of their opponents.

Top bet: Over 3.5 Total Cards at 1/1

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Group E Play

June 24, 2014


Group E: Honduras vs. Switzerland (ESPN2, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Sportsbook.ag Line:
Switzerland -250, Honduras +600, Tie +333
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over -144, Under +115)

Switzerland looks to move forward to the knockout stage of the World Cup when it takes on winless Honduras on Wednesday in the Brazilian rainforest in Manaus.

The Swiss began the tournament with a narrow 2-1 victory over Ecuador in extra time, but was steamrolled 5-2 by France in its follow-up game. Honduras also got pounded 3-0 by Les Blues, but played much better in a 2-1 defeat to Ecuador, with their tally ending a 32-year, goal-less drought in World Cup play. With France virtually assured to move on to the Round of 16 with six points and a +6 goal differential, Switzerland needs at least a draw plus an Ecuador loss to France to keep playing in the 2014 World Cup. This match takes place exactly four years to the day these teams last met in the World Cup when the clubs played to a 0-0 tie that eliminated both teams from the tournament.

Honduras will once again be a huge underdog, but key midfielder Wilson Palacios will be able return after picking up two yellow cards in the first half versus France, which kept him out of the Ecuador match. Honduras actually got on the board first in the 31st minute of that game when Carlo Costly scored the country's first World Cup goal since 1982, ending a drought of five straight goal-less games. Even though Enner Valencia tallied at both the 34-minute mark, and 65 minutes in for the game-winner, Honduras still held the edge in many statistics. They outshot Ecuador 16-8 in total shots, including 9-5 in shots on goal. Ball possession was nearly even though (49% Honduras, 51% Ecuador), but Honduras had three times fewer corner kicks (four) than Ecuador did (12). Honduras also picked up a couple of yellow cards in the first half with Victor Bernardez and Jerry Bengtson. Honduras continues to be led on defense by Maynor Figueroa, who played an outstanding match four years ago in the scoreless draw with Switzerland. But Honduras needs to win by a wide margin to have any shot of moving to the next round, so expect them to attack much more than usual.

Switzerland has to be extremely concerned with their defense, especially with the loss of Steve von Bergen for the rest of the tournament after he fractured his cheekbone. He is arguably their best defensive player. His substitute Philippe Senderos had a brutal showing versus France, and was a big reason why Les Blues netted five goals. Despite that result, Switzerland could pack it in for a low-scoring tie on Wednesday and hope France rolls past Ecuador. The Swiss really need Xherdan Shaqiri to provide some offense for this club, which does have a little momentum with goals in the 81st minute (Blerim Dzemaili) and 87th minute (Granit Xhaka) against France. They wound up with a ton of shots (17), but put only eight of those on goal. In their Cup opener, they attempted 18 shots with 12 of those on target. But the Swiss did hold the edge in possession over France (57% to 43%) and had more corners (5-3), but less fouls (12-16) and no cards. Switzerland are the more experienced and quicker team in this matchup, and should be confident they can bounce back from the debacle versus France.

Group E: Ecuador vs. France (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Sportsbook.ag Line:
France -140, Ecuador +385, Tie +270
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over -120, Under -109)

France looks to continue its impressive World Cup run when it wraps up Group E play Wednesday versus an Ecuador team with hopes of advancing to the knockout stage.

France had little problem with Honduras to begin their World Cup quest, winning easily by a 3-0 score, and followed that up with a 5-2 pummeling of Switzerland. Ecuador began its World Cup with a 2-1 loss to Switzerland, but came back with a 2-1 victory over Honduras to give them three points that ties the country with Switzerland for second place in Group E. These teams last met in a friendly in 2008 that resulted in a 2-0 win for France.

Ecuador showed great courage coming back from a 1-0 deficit to beat Honduras with a pair of Enner Valencia goals, but they were still badly outshot 16-8, including 9-5 on goal. Ecuador did have a slight edge in possession at 51% to 49% and took 12 corner kicks compared to four corners for Honduras. But some key players picked up yellow cards, including goal-scoring hero Enner Valencia, as well as speedy midfielders Jefferson Montero and Antonio Valencia. Ecuador has committed 32 fouls in the World Cup, while their opponents have committed just 24 against them.

France star Karim Benzema has three of his team's eight goals so far in the World Cup, with one goal apiece for Olivier Giroud, Moussa Sissoko, Blaise Matuidi and Mathieu Valbuena. Although France throttled Switzerland, they did allow two goals after the 80th minute of that game and got out-possessed 57% to 43%. France did fire 22 shots though, with 16 of those shots on goal. That gives the club 42 shots for the tournament, with 26 of those on net. But Les Blues also has 29 fouls and four yellow cards during their two wins. And a silly yellow card in the 88th minute of a 5-2 match by Yohan Cabaye will keep him off the field for Wednesday's contest.

[StarDust Bum]

Suarez could be banned by FIFA

June 24, 2014


RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) - Luis Suarez could be banned by FIFA for up to 24 matches or two years for apparently biting Italy defender Giorgio Chiellini, according to the governing body's disciplinary rules.

Still, any action could depend on FIFA judging the case using video evidence - which FIFA President Sepp Blatter is on record this year as supporting.

''Video evidence can contribute greatly to fair play, provided the sport's disciplinary bodies are prepared to use it - and they should,'' Blatter wrote in his column in FIFA's weekly magazine in February.

Now, the future of Luis Suarez at the World Cup depends in the first instance on the report of Mexican referee Marco Rodriguez.

On Tuesday, FIFA said only that it was waiting for Rodriguez's report before evaluating it. That is a standard procedure following every match at a FIFA competition.

There is a World Cup precedent for video review.

In a 1994 quarterfinal, Italy defender Mauro Tassotti's elbow to the face of Spain's Luis Enrique escaped the referee's attention. FIFA later banned Tassotti for eight international matches.

Rodriguez and his two assistants appear not to have seen - or realized the severity - of Suarez apparently biting Chiellini late in Tuesday's match.

Had they done so, or thought so, Suarez would surely have been shown a red card for ''serious foul play.''

The code allows for suspensions to be applied by time or number of international matches

''Unless otherwise specified, it may not exceed twenty-four matches or twenty-four months,'' Article 19 of the FIFA code states.

The use of video evidence is an intriguing aspect of this case.

Television and still images have clearly shown Chiellini pulling aside his blue shirt to reveal marks on his left shoulder.

Proof which can be presented to a FIFA disciplinary hearing includes ''audio or video recordings.''

If the referee's report to FIFA does not fully deal with an incident, the code appears to allow challenges.

FIFA would find it hard to resist overwhelming evidence provided by the 34 cameras trained on each World Cup match as part of its high-tech broadcasting operation.

[StarDust Bum]

2014 World Cup Results

June 24, 2014

Betting Results
Group Stages
Wager Results
Favorites-Underdogs 22-11
Draws 7
Over-Under 25-13-2
Group Stages


Thursday, June 12
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
A Croatia vs. Brazil (-350) 3-1 Favorite Over (2.5)


Friday, June 13
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
A Mexico (+130) vs. Cameroon 1-0 Favorite Under (2)
B Spain vs. Netherlands (+360) 5-1 Underdog Over (2)
B Chile (-250) vs. Australia 3-1 Favorite Over (2.5)


Saturday, June 14
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
C Colombia (-120) vs. Greece 3-0 Favorite Over (2.5)
C Cote d' Ivoire (+165) vs. Japan 2-1 Favorite Over (2.5)
D Uruguay vs. Costa Rica (+785) 3-1 Underdog Over (2.5)
D England vs. Italy (+215) 2-1 Underdog Over (2.5)


Sunday, June 15
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
E Switzerland (+130) vs. Ecuador 2-1 Favorite Over (2.5)
E France (-350) vs. Honduras 3-0 Favorite Over (2.5)
F Argentina (-400) vs. Bosnia 2-1 Favorite Push (3)


Monday, June 16
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
F Iran vs. Nigeria 0-0 Draw (+250) Under (2.5)
G Germany (+115) vs. Portugal 4-0 Favorite Over (2.5)
G Ghana vs. United States (+180) 2-1 Underdog Over (2.5)


Tuesday, June 17
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
H Belgium (-400) vs. Algeria 2-1 Favorite Over (2.5)
H Russia vs. South Korea 1-1 Draw (+260) Under (2.5)
A Brazil vs. Mexico 0-0 Draw (+400) Under (2.5)


Wednesday, June 18
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
A Cameroon vs. Croatia (-160) 4-0 Favorite Over (2.5)
B Spain vs. Chile (+450) 2-0 Underdog Under (3)
B Australia vs. Netherlands (-450) 3-2 Favorite Over (3)


Thursday, June 19
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
C Colombia (+105) vs. Cote d'Ivoire 2-1 Favorite Over (2.5)
C Japan vs. Greece 0-0 Draw (+275) Under (2.5)
D Uruguay (+285) vs. England 2-1 Underdog Over (2.5)


Friday, June 20
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
D Italy vs. Costa Rica (+525) 1-0 Underdog Under (2.5)
E Switzerland vs. France (-130) 5-2 Favorite Over (2.5)
E Honduras vs. Ecuador (-165) 2-1 Favorite Over (2.5)


Saturday, June 21
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
F Argentina (-850) vs. Iran 1-0 Favorite Under (3)
F Nigeria (+350) vs. Bosnia 1-0 Underdog Under (2.5)
G Germany vs. Ghana 2-2 Draw (+475) Over (3)


Sunday, June 22
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
G United States vs. Portugal 2-2 Draw (+300) Over (2.5)
H Belgium (+120) vs. Russia 1-0 Favorite Under (2.5)
H South Korea vs. Algeria (+200) 4-2 Underdog Over (2)


Monday, June 23
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
A Cameroon vs. Brazil (-900) 4-1 Favorite Over (3.5)
A Croatia vs. Mexico (-160) 3-1 Favorite Over (2.5)
B Australia vs. Spain (-300) 3-0 Favorite Push (3)
B Netherlands (+150) vs. Chile 2-0 Favorite Under (2.5)


Tuesday, June 24
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
C Japan vs. Colombia (+110) 4-1 Favorite Over (2.5)
C Greece (+315) vs. Cote d'Ivoire 2-1 Underdog Over (2.5)
D Italy vs. Uruguay (+175) 1-0 Underdog Under (2.5)
D Costa Rica vs. England 0-0 Draw (+330) Under (2.5)


Wednesday, June 25
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
E Honduras vs. Switzerland - - -
E Ecuador vs. France - - -
F Nigeria vs. Argentina - - -
F Bosnia vs. Iran - - -


Thursday, June 26
Group Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
G United States vs. Germany - - -
G Portugal vs. Ghana - - -
H South Korea vs. Belgium - - -
H Algeria vs. Russia -

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Group H Play

June 25, 2014


South Korea vs. Belgium (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Sportsbook.ag. Line
Belgium -140, South Korea +350, Tie +295
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over -105, Under -125)

Group H play concludes on Thursday with heavily-favored Belgium needing only a draw with desperate South Korea to win the group.

South Korea was pummeled 4-2 versus Algeria in their most recent game, but still have a mathematical chance at advancement due to a 1-1 tie earned in the tournament opener. But the Taeguk Warriors need to beat the Red Devils by at least three goals and hope that Russia beats Algeria in a game played simultaneously with this one. Belgium, which won both of its matches so far (2-1 versus Algeria and 1-0 over Russia), needs only a draw to assure themselves of being the group champion, and a they could still take Group H with a loss combined with an Algeria defeat or draw.

South Korea held the possession advantage against both Russia (52% to 48%) and Algeria (54% to 46%), but has been outshot 31-19 in the World Cup, including 18-12 in shots on goal. They didn't attempt a single shot during the first half of their loss to Algeria. The Taeguk Warriors have been very disciplined this tournament with only one offsides call and just 20 fouls committed, compared to 31 fouls for their opponents. However, South Korea has amassed five yellow cards already with defenseman Lee Yong and midfielder Han Kookyoung picking up cards versus Algeria to join forward Son Heung-min and midfielders Ki Sung-yueng and Koo Ja-Cheol all getting booked in the World Cup opener. Hueng-min and Ja-Cheol were the goal scorers versus Algeria and will try to spend most of their time in the Belgium half of the field for a Taeguk Warriors team desperate to tally at least three goals on Thursday.

Belgium has a pedestrian three goals in two World Cup matches -- all from substitute players (midfielders Marouane Fellaini, Dries Mertens and forward Divock Origi), but they have created several great chances with 27 total shots, and 17 of those winding up on net. The Red Devils have also held a possession advantage in each game, with 65% possession versus Algeria and 53% against Russia. But they have also been extremely dangerous with their challenges with 34 fouls and three yellow cards issued to midfielder Axel Witsel and defensemen Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen. But Belgium's defense remains top-notch, with the only goal allowed this tournament coming off a penalty kick as the result of Vertonghen's silly decision to grab his opponent by the arm in the box. Center back Vincent Kompany was able to play through a groin injury in the last match, and is virtually 100 percent healthy for Thursday. As the leader of his team's great counter-attack, Kompany will play a big role in determining the fate of Group H.

Algeria vs. Russia (ESPN2, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Sportsbook.ag. Line
Russia +120, Algeria +220 Tie +237
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +130, Under -158)

Algeria and Russia both wrap up Group H play on Thursday in a match where the winner has a great chance to advance to the knockout round.

After losing a late lead in a 2-1 defeat to Belgium in its World Cup opener, Algeria stormed back for a 4-2 victory over South Korea to pick up a crucial three points. Russia was able to earn only a 1-1 draw with South Korea to begin the tournament, and a subsequent 1-0 loss to Belgium has Russia needing a victory to have any chance to advance to the Round of 16 for the first time ever. Algeria knows that a win plus a Belgium loss to South Korea will put them in first place in Group H, but a tie on Thursday should also send them through for the first time ever, unless the unlikely scenario occurs where South Korea beats a favored Belgium squad by at least three goals. The only injury concern for either team is whether or not Russia defenseman Aleksandr Kozlov can play after suffering an injury versus Belgium.

Algeria failed to score a goal in the entire 2010 World Cup, but coach Vahid Halilhodzic's club already has five tallies in its first two matches in this tournament. The team's penalty-kick goal by midfielder Sofiane Feghouli was its only shot on goal versus Belgium in a match where they attempted just three total shots, but was much more aggressive against South Korea with 15 shots on goal, eight shots on net, and four shots in net by four different players (forward Islam Slimani, defenseman Rafik Halliche and midfielders Abdelmoumene Djabou and Yacine Brahimi). And after being dominated in possession by Belgium (65% to 35%), Algeria held the ball 46% of the time versus South Korea. Although Algeria has been very physical in this tournament with 34 fouls, they have picked up only two yellow cards with midfielder Nabil Bentaleb in the opener and defender Madjid Bougherra in the most recent match.

With Russia needing a victory for a chance at advancement, expect Fabio Capello's squad to be much more aggressive in this match. But it's all about finishing for this team that has attempted a solid 29 total shots, with 16 of those on goal, so far in the tournament. But only Alexander Kerzhakov was able to find the back of the net for Russia in the World Cup when he was inside the goalie box after a failed clearing attempt by South Korea hit Russia's Andrey Eshchenko in the chest and landed right on Kerzhakov's foot for an easy goal. Russia's defense has played pretty well too with only two goals allowed. One of those tallies came at the 88-minute mark by Belgium, while the other occurred in the opening match when Russia goalie Igor Akinfeev let a seemingly harmless South Korea shot go right through his hands. Russia has lost time of possession in both of its matches, but only by small margins (52% to 48% and 53% to 47%). Russia has also been disciplined enough to not get whistled for any offsides, and have committed only 24 fouls so far, incluidng a pair of yellow cards to midfielders Oleg Shatov and Denis Glushakov.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Group G Play

June 25, 2014


United States vs. Germany (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Sportsbook.ag. Line
Germany -144, United States +650, Tie +125
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over -109, Under -120)

After letting a chance to win Group G slip away with a goal allowed in the 95th minute, the United States and Germany are still in the driver's seat to advance to the next round when the two clubs meet on Thursday.

The Americans nearly had their second straight 2-1 victory to open the tournament, but a horrendous giveaway in midfield by Michael Bradley allowed Portugal to score the equalizer on the last kick of the game. Germany also had a chance to clinch the group, but had to settle for a 2-2 draw with heavy underdog Ghana. Both teams will advance on Thursday with a tie, and Germany (+4 goal differential) will likely get through to the Round of 16 even with a loss to the Americans.

The United States could also lose and get through with a Ghana/Portugal tie or a Portugal win by less than three goals. But if the U.S. loses and Ghana wins by at least two goals, the Americans would be sent home. The United States will still be missing starting striker Jozy Altidore, who is likely finished for the 2014 World Cup because of a left hamstring injury. The head coach of the Americans knows this German side very well, as Jurgen Klinsmann has both played and coached Germany in past World Cups.

The Americans have been led by forward Clint Dempsey, who scored a goal in the first 30 seconds of the tournament opener, broke his nose later that game, and also scored at the 81st minute against Portugal with what looked to be the game-winner at the time. John Brooks Jr. and Jermaine Jones have the club's other two goals in the World Cup.

USA has been outshot badly in this tournament by a combined total of 41-23, but are an even 17-17 in terms of shots on goal with nine corner kicks compared to 11 for their opponents. The Americans have also lost the time of possession in both matches, holding the ball for only 40% of the time versus Ghana and 48% of the time versus Portugal.

But the United States has been whistled for only 23 fouls and two offsides in the World Cup and their only booked player was Jones picking up a yellow card versus Portugal. It will be interesting to see how star midfielder Michael Bradley bounces back from a match in which he failed to score a point-blank opportunity with the goalie out of net (his shot was blocked by a Portugal defender) and turned the ball over in the final minute to allow Portugal to force a tie. But the U.S. has to be confident in the play of goalie Tim Howard, who has made some brilliant saves this tournament, especially versus Portugal.

Germany has scored six times in the World Cup with Thomas Muller netting half of those goals against Portugal. Muller, who also has an assist during the tournament, has eight goals in eight career World Cup matches.

Mats Hummels, Mario Gotze and Miroslav Klose have the other tallies for the Germans, with Klose's tally marking his 15th career World Cup goal, which ties Ronaldo for the all-time record. Germany possessed the ball for 54% of the time versus Portugal and 59% of the time versus Ghana, and hold an 11-9 edge in corner kicks on their opponents.

But Germany has been outshot by a hefty 34-24 margin in total shots for the tournament (19-15 in shots on goal). With the Germans needing only a tie to win this group, expect them to employ a more defensive game plan on Thursday.

Portugal vs. Ghana (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Sportsbook.ag. Line
Portugal +135, Ghana +177, Tie +260
Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (Over +155, Under -188)

Group G play of the 2014 World Cup wraps up on Thursday afternoon with Portugal and Ghana both needing a win and some help to push through to the Round of 16.

Portugal is quite a longshot to advance due to their minus-4 goal differential, but if they can beat Ghana 3-0 and have Germany beat the United States by a 2-0 margin, they will advance to the knockout stage. Ghana would only need to win 2-0 over Portugal plus a 1-0 Germany victory over the U.S. to reach the Round of 16.

Both of these clubs are coming off somewhat surprising draws, as Portugal needed a goal in the 95th minute versus the United States to keep its chances intact of advancing, while Ghana played heavily-favored Germany to a 2-2 draw in its last match. Ghana's Michael Essien is unlikely to start again due to his lingering toe injury, but Portugal should see an improvement on their back line with the return of Pepe who missed the last game after his silly head-butt to Germany's Thomas Muller.

Portugal, referred to as Seleccao, saw star Cristiano Ronaldo play a horrible match versus the US due largely to a lingering knee injury, but he still found a way to serve a perfect cross to the head of Silvestre Varela in the final minute of stoppage time to help his team earn a draw and keep small hopes alive for moving on in this tournament. Nani opened the scoring in that epic draw with an easy goal five minutes in off a horrible clear by the American defender.

Although Portugal carries a minus-4 goal differential due to getting waxed 4-0 by Germany in the World Cup Opener, the team has outshot both of its opponents, holding a 20-15 total shots advantage over the U.S. after outshooting Germany 14-13. But of Seleccao's 34 shots in the World Cup, only 18 have been on net. Portugal has also been pretty even in ball possession, holding a slim 52% to 48% advantage over the Americans after allowing the Germans to have a 54% possession.

Ghana, known as The Black Stars, really put the pressure on the Germans in their last match with 20 total shots, including 10 on goal. Germany attempted only 11 shots with six on goal. That gives Ghana 41 total shots (18 on goal) for the tournament while limiting their opponents to a paltry 19 total shots (13 on goal). Ghana's 4-3-3 formation and excellent goaltending by Fatau Dauda could cause trouble for Portugal's erratic attack.

The Black Stars did lose possession time to Germany by a substantial 59% to 41% margin, which was just the opposite of their first game when they held the ball 60% of the time versus the Americans. But Ghana has played extremely rough in this tournament with 27 fouls and three yellow cards. Two of those cards went to midfielder Sulley Muntari's whose booking in the 94th minute of the battle of Germany will earn him a one-game suspension. Midfielder Mohammed Rabiu also has to be careful not to pick up another yellow card like he did in that first match.

Ghana's lone goal of their first match came at the 82nd minute from Andre Ayew, assisted by Asamoah Gyan on a sweet back-heel pass. This duo was at it again versus Germany with one goal each -- Ayew tallying at the 54th minute, and Gyan scoring nine minutes later.

[StarDust Bum]

WCup Round of 16 Odds

June 27, 2014


Explanation of Odds:

Three-Way Lines for Soccer include options for Team A, Team B, or a Draw. This wager is based on the first 90 minutes of play and any extra time added for injuries and substitution. If the game is tied after this period, the winning wager is the DRAW. Otherwise, the winning wager will be either Team A or Team B depending on the result.

The 90 minutes of play also relates to totals. If a game is tied 1-1 after 90 minutes, the UNDER would be deemed a winning wager. Any goals scored thereafter would not for or against the total listed.

Team to Advance Odds include options for Team A or Team B only. This wager is based on the first 90 minutes plus the extra time (two 15-minute halves) and penalty kicks if necessary. The odds for favorites are higher in this bet and lower for underdogs.

Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag

Saturday, June 28

Brazil vs. Chile (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Brazil -188
Chile +450
Tie +350
Over 2.5 (-153)
Under 2.5 (+125)

Team to Advance Odds:
Brazil -400
Chile +270

Colombia vs. Uruguay (ABC, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Colombia -120
Uruguay +325
Tie +270
Over 2.5 (+115)
Under 2.5 (-144)

Team to Advance Odds:
Colombia -240
Uruguay +180

Sunday, June 29, 2014

Netherland vs. Mexico (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Netherlands -105
Mexico +270
Tie +260
Over 2.5 (-105)
Under 2.5 (-129)

Team to Advance Odds:
Netherlands -200
Mexico +160

Costa Rica vs. Greece (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Costa Rica +125
Greece +225
Tie +225
Over 2.5 (+205)
Under 2.5 (-250)

Team to Advance Odds:
Costa Rica -155
Greece +125

Monday, June 30, 2014

France vs. Nigeria (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

France -222
Nigeria +500
Tie +350
Over 2.5 (-114)
Under 2.5 (-114)

Team to Advance Odds:
France -450
Nigeria +300

Germany vs. Algeria (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Germany -344
Algeria +750
Draw +450
Over 2.5
Under 2.5

Team to Advance Odds:
Germany -790
Algeria +550

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Argentina vs. Switzerland (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Argentina -204
Switzerland +500
Tie +350
Over 2.5 (-129)
Under 2.5 (even)

Team to Advance Odds:
Argentina -450
Switzerland +300

Belgium vs. United States (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Belgium -125
USA +290
Draw +260
Over 2.5
Under 2.5

Team to Advance Odds:
Belgium -215
United States +180

Updated Future Odds to win the 2014 World Cup (6/30/14)

Brazil 3/1
Germany 4/1
Argentina 4/1
Netherlands 6/1
France 7/1
Belgium 15/1
Colombia 18/1
Mexico 22/1
Chile 25/1
Uruguay 30/1
USA 40/1
Costa Rica 40/1
Greece 80/1
Switzerland 80/1
Nigeria 200/1
Algeria 200/1