Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 04-17-2014, 01:49 AM

Playoff Props posted

The NBA Playoffs begin this weekend and the oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag are offering up proposition wagers on the upcoming postseason.

The oddsmakers believe that the Miami Heat or Indiana Pacers will win this year’s Eastern Conference while the Western Conference is more open.

The first available prop for bettors is determining who the Heat or Pacers will meet in this year’s NBA Finals.

NBA Finals Possible Matchups

Heat vs. Thunder 5/2
Heat vs. Spurs 27/10
Heat vs. Clippers 8/1
Heat vs. Rockets 15/1
Heat vs. Blazers 39/1
Heat vs. Warriors 47/1

Pacers vs. Spurs 6/1
Pacers vs. Thunder 7/1
Pacers vs. Clippers 16/1
Pacers vs. Rockets 38/1
Pacers vs. Blazers 77/1
Pacers vs. Warriors 90/1

Field (Any Other Matchup) 7/1

The top two choices feature the Heat against the Thunder (5/2) and Spurs (27/10), which isn't surprising since Miami faced each team in their last two final appearances.

If you don’t believe Miami will three-peat this summer, you can bet on the field at Sportsbook.ag as well.

Bettors will have to lay $225 to win $100 if they want to take the other 15 teams. If you expect a third straight title for Miami, then you’re return is plus-180 (Bet $100 to win $180).

Sportsbook.ag has offered up odds on other postseason teams as well.

Will They Win the 2014 NBA Championship?

Heat
Yes +180 No -225

Spurs
Yes +300 No -400

Thunder
Yes +350 No -475

Pacers
Yes +700 No -1200

Clippers
Yes +1300 No -2750

Rockets
Yes +2500 No -8500

Will They Win the 2014 Western Conference?

Spurs
Yes +150 No -185

Thunder
Yes +180 No -225

Clippers
Yes +450 No -650

Rockets
Yes +1200 No -2250

Warriors
Yes +2500 No -8500

**StarDust Bum** · 04-17-2014, 12:57 PM

NBA playoff matchups set

When the Memphis Grizzlies edged the Dallas Mavericks in overtime Wednesday night, sealing the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference playoffs, the first-round matchups for the NBA's postseason were set.

The Grizzlies avoided a first-round matchup with the top-seeded San Antonio Spurs, instead earning a date with the second-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. The Mavericks will square off with the Spurs.

In the other Western Conference opening-round series, the third-seeded Los Angeles Clippers will play the sixth-seeded Golden State Warriors in an all-California affair, and the fourth-seeded Houston Rockets and fifth-seeded Portland Trail Blazers will meet.

In the East, the Nets lost their regular-season finale to the Cleveland Cavaliers, dropping Brooklyn from the fifth seed to the sixth seed. The Nets will play the third-seeded Toronto Raptors, while the Washington Wizards moved up to No. 5, setting up a battle with the fourth-seeded Chicago Bulls.

The East's top seed, the Indiana Pacers, meet the Atlanta Hawks, the only playoff team with a losing record. The defending champion Miami Heat, seeded second, will play the seventh-seeded Charlotte Bobcats.

The NBA's opening-round playoff matchups:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

No. 1 Indiana (56-26) vs. No. 8 Atlanta (38-44) -- Game 1 is Saturday

No. 2 Miami (54-28) vs. No. 7 Charlotte (43-39) -- Game 1 is Sunday

No. 3 Toronto (48-34) vs. No. 6 Brooklyn (44-38) -- Game 1 is Saturday

No. 4 Chicago (48-34) vs. No. 5 Washington (44-38) -- Game 1 is Sunday

WESTERN CONFERENCE

No. 1 San Antonio (62-20) vs. No. 8 Dallas (49-33) -- Game 1 is Sunday

No. 2 Oklahoma City (59-23) vs. No. 7 Memphis (50-32) -- Game 1 is Saturday

No. 3 Los Angeles Clippers (57-25) vs. No. 6 Golden State (51-31) -- Game 1 is Saturday

No. 4 Houston (54-28) vs. No. 5 Portland (54-28) -- Game 1 is Sunday

**StarDust Bum** · 04-17-2014, 12:59 PM

Four of the most important stats for betting the NBA Playoffs

The NBA Playoffs are almost here and with the postseason picture all but painted, basketball bettors are beginning to size up the potential matchups.

Before you start getting down on the NBA title futures or wager on the series and Game 1 odds, make sure to check out just which teams excel in these important statistical categories, provided by the mad stats scientists at NumberFire.com:

Second-chance points for/against

Nothing makes or breaks a bet more than a late put-back or a huge offensive rebound that resets the shot clock. Teams with the tenacity to grab those second-chance looks and limit their opponents from them are the ones you want your money on when the playoffs heat up.

The Portland Trail Blazers are the best playoff-bound team at generating second-chance buckets, averaging 16.2 second-chance points per game. Behind them are the Toronto Raptors (15.4), Chicago Bulls (15.0), and Memphis Grizzlies (14.6).

On the other side, the Grizzlies don’t give foes many extra looks, limiting teams to 12.2 second-chance points per game, followed by the Indiana Pacers (12.3), Oklahoma City Thunder (12.4) and Chicago Bulls (12.5).

Surprisingly, some of the top contenders for the NBA title – and those that will see the heftiest pointspreads in the playoffs - rank among the teams allowing the most second-chance points. The Houston Rockets average 14.7 second-chance points against while the Los Angeles Clippers (14.3) and defending champion Miami Heat (14.3) are near the top of the list.

Crunch-time free throws

With playoff spreads tighter than John Stockton’s shorts, every point counts. And when it comes to playoffs success – and ATS success – free throws can quickly add up. Putting your money on a team that won’t fold at the line when the pressure is on is imperative to covering the spread.

NumberFire.com tracks just how well teams shoot freebies in crunch time, providing free-throw percentage in the final five minutes in games decided by five or fewer points – an incredible stat that unveils which teams have ice water in their veins and which teams can’t hit ‘em when they count.

The Thunder top playoff-bound teams with an 85.8 percent clip from the foul line in the last five minutes of games decided by five points or less, which is actually better than their 80.7 free-throw percentage on the season.

Other teams cashing in foul shots late into close games are the Trail Blazers (84.4), Atlanta Hawks (83.3), Grizzlies (82.7) and Dallas Mavericks (80.5) – all three shooting better when the pressure is one than their season averages from the foul line.

As for those postseason teams with knocking knees at the stripe in close games, the Brooklyn Nets stand out as the worst crunch-time team at the foul line, shooting just over 70 percent (70.4) in the last five minutes of games decided by five points or less. The Nets shoot 75.4 percent from the line on the year.

Behind Brooklyn, in terms of poor foul shooting in the crunch, quiver the Rockets (73.9), Raptors (75.0), and Washington Wizards (75.5).

Bench plus/minus

Being able to depend on your reserves is a huge part of pushing through the postseason. With the grind of intense and physical playoff action coupled with the constant travel, teams can wear down quickly if a series goes six or seven games.

Being able to hold the fort while your starters get a blow is crucial come the second season, and no one does that better than the San Antonio Spurs. The NBA’s top team in the regular season boasts an outstanding 8.2 plus/minus when its reserves take the floor. It’s no wonder Gregg Popovich has no problem sitting his stars from time to time.

The Clippers have the second-most steady bench in the Association, with a 7.1 plus/minus. Behind L.A. are the Thunder (6.6), Heat (5.3), Golden State Warriors (4.8), and Rockets (4.7).

The thinnest roster heading to the postseason belongs to Atlanta, which has an underperforming bench with a -0.6 plus/minus on the season. The Nets (-0.5), Charlotte Bobcats (-0.3) and Wizards (0.8) also lack production – on both ends of the floor – when they lean on their backups.

Points off turnovers

Defense wins championships, which is why we always see lower scores come playoff time. But a great defense produces easy offense off turnovers, and when points are at a premium, the team that scores with ease will always cover the spread.

No one has converted their opponents’ mistakes into layups and dunks like Nets, who score 19 percent of their total points off turnovers. Brooklyn averages 8.6 steals and forces 15.9 turnovers per game. The Heat (18.9), Wizards (18.2), and Clippers (18.0) round out the top playoff-bound clubs scoring off turnovers this season.

The Trail Blazers, at 13 percent, get the lowest percentage of points off turnovers in the NBA. Portland averages only 12.1 turnovers forced per game and steals the ball 4.8 times an outing. Behind the Blazers sit the Bobcats (14.9), Rockets (15.0) and Spurs (15.9).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-18-2014, 12:46 AM

Playoff Series Odds posted

April 17, 2014

First Round - Best of 7 Games (2-2-1-1-1)

How to read the Odds:
Ex. Bet $4,000 on Miami (-4000) to win $100 or Bet $100 to win $2.50
Ex. Bet $100 on Charlotte (+1600) to win $1,600

Ex. Bet $225 on Houston (-225) to win $100 or Bet $100 to win $44.44
Ex. Bet $100 on Portland (+190) to win $190

Eastern Conference

1 Indiana vs. 8 Atlanta

Series Price: Pacers -750 Hawks +550
2013-14 Head-to-Head: Split 2-2

4 Chicago vs. 5 Washington

Series Price: Bulls -205 Wizards +175
2013-14 Head-to-Head: Wizards 2-1

2 Miami vs. 7 Charlotte

Series Price: Heat -4000 Bobcats +1600
2013-14 Head-to-Head: Heat 4-0

3 Toronto vs. 6 Brooklyn

Series Price: Nets -120 Raptors +100
2013-14 Head-to-Head: Split 2-2

Western Conference

1 San Antonio vs. 8 Dallas

Series Price: Spurs -900 Mavericks +620
2013-14 Head-to-Head: Spurs 4-0

4 Houston vs. 5 Portland

Series Price: Rockets -225Trail Blazers +190
2013-14 Head-to-Head: Rockets 3-1

2 Oklahoma City vs. 7 Memphis

Series Price: Thunder -420 Grizzlies +330
2013-14 Head-to-Head: Thunder 3-1

3 L.A. Clippers vs. 6 Golden State

Series Price: Clippers -400 Warriors +320
2013-14 Head-to-Head: Split 2-2

Odds to win the 2014 NBA Finals

Miami Heat 11/5
San Antonio Spurs 3/1
Oklahoma City Thunder 4/1
Indiana Pacers 8/1
Los Angeles Clippers 11/1
Houston Rockets 23/1
Brooklyn Nets 40/1
Chicago Bulls 60/1
Portland Blazers 50/1
Golden State Warriors 60/1
Memphis Grizzlies70/1
Toronto Raptors90/1
Dallas Mavericks 100/1
Washington Wizards125/1
Charlotte Bobcats 200/1
Atlanta Hawks 900/1

Odds to win the 2014 Eastern Conference

Miami Heat 2/3
Indiana Pacers 2/1
Brooklyn Nets 15/1
Chicago Bulls 15/1
Toronto Raptors20/1
Washington Wizards 50/1
Charlotte Bobcats 75/1
Atlanta Hawks 300/1

Odds to win the 2014 Western Conference

San Antonio Spurs7/5
Oklahoma City Thunder 9/5
Los Angeles Clippers 26/5
Houston Rockets 11/1
Portland Blazers 25/1
Golden State Warriors 30/1
Memphis Grizzlies30/1
Dallas Mavericks 50/1

**StarDust Bum** · 04-18-2014, 12:48 AM

Saturday's Late Action

April 17, 2014

**Atlanta at Indiana**

-- As of late Thursday afternoon, most books had Indiana (56-26 straight up, 38-43-1 against the spread) listed as a 7.5-point home favorite for Saturday's Game 1 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The total is 186, while the Hawks are +270 on the money line (risk $100 to win $270).

-- Indiana certainly hasn't looked like a No. 1 seed lately. In fact, Frank Vogel's team has lost 13 of its last 23 games. Nevertheless, the Pacers garnered the top seed in the Eastern Conference thanks to Miami's woes (injuries) down the stretch and a crucial home win over Oklahoma City this past Sunday. Indiana won a 102-97 decision over the Thunder as a one-point home underdog thanks to a triple-double from Lance Stephenson, who tallied 17 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds. David West added 21 points, while Paul George and C.J. Watson scored 20 apiece.

-- George was a monster in last year's playoffs, going toe-to-toe with LeBron James for the first six games of the East finals. He finished the regular season averaging 21.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.9 steals per game. West averages 14.0 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, while Stephenson is the club's third-leading scorer (13.8 PPG), top assist man (4.6 APG) and second-leading rebounder (7.2 RPG).

-- Roy Hibbert is in the midst of an abysmal shooting slump, as the seven-foot-two-inch center from out of Georgetown has made only three of his last 29 attempts from the field.

-- Atlanta (38-44 SU, 38-43-1 ATS) has been an underdog 51 times this season, compiling a 23-27-1 spread record. However, we should note that the Hawks have taken the cash in five consecutive games as underdogs, winning four of those contests outright.

-- Atlanta was the No. 3 seed in the East when its perennial All-Star power forward Al Horford was lost for the season with a torn pectoral muscle in late December. Without Horford, the Hawks faded fast and they dropped 14 of 15 games from Feb. 4 to March 8. Since March 10, however, Mike Budenholzer's squad has won 12 of 21 games to hold off the hard-charging Knicks to get into the playoffs.

-- Atlanta is led by Paul Millsap, who earned his first invite to the All-Star Game after inking a two-year deal with the Hawks during the offseason. Millsap averaged 17.9 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.1 blocked shots per game. Jeff Teague also enjoyed a solid season, averaging 16.5 points and 6.7 assists per contest. He gets a lot of those helpers after dishing off to Kyle Korver, who averages 12.0 PPG and makes 47.2 percent of his 3's and 92.6 percent of his free throws.

-- These teams met in last year's playoffs with the Pacers advancing in six games. These clubs split four regular-season meetings, but Atlanta won the most recent encounter in blowout fashion at Indy two Sundays ago. The Hawks held Indiana to its lowest first-half scoring output (23) in franchise history. They led the Pacers by 32 at intermission and cruised to a 107-88 win as eight-point road underdogs. Teague led the way with a game-high 25 points, while Millsap added 17 points and 11 boards. Pero Antic, a seven-foot stretch center who can drain 3-balls, had 18 points on 7-of-8 shooting from the field, including 3-of-4 makes from 3-point land. Antic's range can pull his defender, whether it be Hibbert, West or Luis Scola, away from the basket and create more room for Teague to operate with dribble penetration.

-- The 'over' went 44-37-1 overall for the Hawks this year, going 24-16-1 in their road assignments.

-- The 'under' went 44-35-3 overall for the Pacers, cashing at a 25-16 clip in their home games.

-- In four head-to-head meetings this year, the totals were a wash (2-2) but we'll mention that the 'over' is 9-4 in the last 13 head-to-head encounters.

-- The Las Vegas Superbook (LVH) has the Pacers as -600 favorites to win the series. The Hawks are available for a +450 return (risk $100 to win $450).

-- Tip-off on ESPN is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. Eastern.

**Memphis at Oklahoma City**

-- As of late Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Oklahoma City (59-23 SU, 43-37-2 ATS) listed as a seven-point 'chalk' with a total of 192.5. Gamblers can take the Grizzlies to win outright for a +250 payout.

-- OKC is the No. 2 seed in the West after winning 34 of 41 home games and going 23-16-2 ATS. The Thunder avoided a three-game losing streak by winning Wednesday's regular-season finale over Detroit by a 112-111 count as a 14.5-point home favorite. Kevin Durant scored 42 points and dished out six assists.

-- Durant is probably going to win his first MVP award this year. The Texas product averaged a league-high 32.0 points, 7.4 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. Russell Westbrook missed games due to knee issues but appears to be 100 percent going into the postseason. In 46 games, Westbrook averaged 21.8 points, 6.9 assists and 5.7 rebounds per contest.

-- Memphis (50-32 SU, 36-43-3 ATS) had to battle down the stretch just to earn a playoff berth, but it did just that with five consecutive victories, including Wednesday's 106-105 overtime home win over Dallas. Both the Grizzlies and Mavs went winless over the top-seeded Spurs, so they played the regular-season finale with postseason intensity in hopes of avoiding an opening-round matchup with San Antonio. Zach Randolph paced the winners with 27 points and 14 rebounds, while Marc Gasol added 19 points, nine boards and nine assists.

-- Memphis owns a 14-18-1 spread record in 33 games as an underdog this year. The Grizz are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games at OKC.

-- OKC won three of four head-to-head meetings over Memphis this year, going 2-1-1 ATS. Totals were a wash (2-2). In the most recent showdown on Feb. 28, the Thunder won 113-107 as a six-point home 'chalk.' Durant dropped 37 points on the Grizz, who outscored OKC by 10 in the final stanza to earn their supporters a backdoor push.

-- The 'under' is 43-39 overall for Memphis, 26-15 in its road assignments.

-- The 'over' is 42-40 overall for OKC, 21-20 in its home outings.

-- The 'over' is 14-5 in the last 19 head-to-head meetings between these Western Conference rivals in Oklahoma City.

-- For the series price, LVH made the Thunder the -400 'chalk.' The Grizz are +330 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $330).

-- ESPN will have the broadcast at 9:35 p.m. Eastern.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-18-2014, 12:50 AM

Fearless Predictions

April 17, 2014

Eastern Conference

Matchup Betting Notes

Indiana Pacers vs. Atlanta Hawks Analysis: Pero Antic's 3-point shooting created huge issues for Indiana last time the teams played, so it's worth wondering whether the matchup woes he creates will keep Roy Hibbert from regaining his rhythm. The Pacers have had their struggles in Atlanta, too, snapping a 12-game regular-season losing streak there in February. This won't be an easy chore.

Prediction: Pacers win 4-3

Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls Analysis: Al Jefferson will test Miami inside, but unless Bismack Biyombo accelerates his development by two years these next few weeks, it won't be enough to keep the Heat from moving on comfortably. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist can potentially be a thorn in LeBron James' side down the road, but he's still too raw to make a significant dent.

Prediction: Heat win 4-1

Toronto Raptors vs. Brooklyn Nets Analysis: This series will be decided by how well the Nets can frustrate Jonas Valanciunas, since the Raptors are formidable when he stays out of foul trouble and imposes his will. He went for 20 and 13 in Toronto's lone win at Barclays Center this season, but Kevin Garnett is currently feeling spry and can still be one of the league's best agitators and paint defenders. Expect experience to win out as Brooklyn's decision to tank in order to avoid Chicago pays off.

Prediction: Nets win 4-2

Chicago Bulls vs. Washington Wizards Analysis: Tom Thibodeau will look to ruin John Wall's first playoff experience by attempting to make him work at every turn, so count on that battle of wills deciding what looks to be a very competitive series. It's easy to dismiss the Wizards' lack of playoff experience since they haven't been here since '08, but Marcin Gortat and Trevor Ariza have each reached the Finals as important role players. Wall, who shot 50 percent in leading the Wizards to wins in two of three regular-season meetings, has the athleticism to complicate matters and push this series to a deciding game. At home, Chicago should have the edge in a Game 7.

Prediction: Bulls win 4-3

Western Conference

Matchup Betting Notes

San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks Analysis: The Mavericks lost all four regular-season meetings against their Southwest Division rivals, surrendering 112.25 points in seeing their defensive deficiencies capitalized upon. Although you should never sell Dallas short due to Rick Carlisle's merit as a brilliant strategist, it's hard to imagine the Spurs losing four times to anyone this early in the postseason. Gregg Popovich has his guys rested, relatively healthy and ready to go.

Prediction: Spurs win 4-2

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies Analysis: The Grizzlies sought out this matchup as opposed to dealing with the Spurs, so we'll see how they fare in containing Kevin Durant. The likely MVP topped 30 in three of the four meetings against Memphis, but Tayshaun Prince, Tony Allen and long potential x-factor James Johnson are worthy adversaries. Because Marc Gasol is so effective as a defensive anchor and Zach Randolph helps slow the pace down, OKC is going to have to work for everything it gets.

Prediction: Thunder win 4-3

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors Analysis: With Andrew Bogut likely out for the entire playoffs and certainly for the length of this series, the Warriors have no answer inside for the Clippers. Stephen Curry is capable of keeping the Warriors in games with his shooting flurries, but keep in mind that Klay Thompson forced Chris Paul to miss seven of his first eight shots in the most recent meeting on March 12 and the Clippers won going away. Blake Griffin should continue his impressive season by helping L.A. control this series.

Prediction: Clippers win 4-1

Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trail Blazers Analysis: Dwight Howard and James Harden can absolutely lead the Rockets to an NBA Finals, but they're just as capable of flaming out early. Free-throw shooting is going to be a major factor, as is Patrick Beverley toiling at less than 100 percent at the point. Damian Lillard can take advantage and help steal this series if he's able to find his shooting stroke. He was held to 39 percent as Houston won three of four regular-season meetings, but his streaky nature and ability to raise his game in big moments can help a very capable Portland supporting cast steal a Game 7. LaMarcus Aldridge averaged 26.8 points and 15.5 rebounds against the Rockets, so Howard and friends have and will continue to struggle keeping him in check.

Prediction: Trail Blazers win 4-3

**StarDust Bum** · 04-19-2014, 01:09 AM

Saturday's Playoff Games

April 18, 2014

Brooklyn (44-38) at Toronto (48-34)

Eastern Conference First Round - Game 1
Tip-off: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Toronto -2.5, Total: 193.5

The first game of the NBA playoffs tips off north of the border at Air Canada Centre on Saturday afternoon when the Raptors host the Nets in Game 1.

Toronto came out of nowhere this season and won the Atlantic Division over a heavily favored Brooklyn team. The Raptors finished strong down the stretch with a 9-3 SU mark (4-7-1 ATS) in their final 12 games to secure the No. 3 seed, and played well at home all season with a 26-15 SU record (21-19-1 ATS). The No. 6 seed Nets rebounded from a rough start to find themselves a spot in the playoffs where they can avoid Miami and Indiana in the first round. This franchise hasn't won a postseason series since 2007, but did get some playoff experience in last season's tough seven-game series loss to Chicago in the first round. But Brooklyn played poorly on the road this season at 16-25 SU (18-23 ATS) and is just 15-22 SU (16-19-2 ATS) in Toronto since 1996.

This season, the teams split four games (SU and ATS), including 1-1 (SU and ATS) in each city. The Nets won 102-100 in their first trip north of the border on Nov. 26, but were crushed 96-80 in a return trip on Jan. 11. The Raptors have a 4-star trend of going 15-2 ATS (88%) when coming off a road loss this season. The only injury concern for either team is Toronto PF Amir Johnson, who injured his ankle in the season finale and is questionable to suit up in Game 1.

The Nets had a roller-coaster season, but were happy to end up with the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference. While their offense was bad (98.5 PPG, 21st in league) and their rebounding atrocious (minus-4.8 RPG margin, 2nd-worst in NBA), they were a quality defensive team that held opponents to 99.5 PPG (11th in league). PF Kevin Garnett (6.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG) has coasted by all season, missing games for rest and minor injuries. Now the big man is healthy and ready to be a leader for a team that rallied around the loss of its starting center Brook Lopez (20.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.8 BPG). In four games against the Raptors this season, SF Paul Pierce (13.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG) was excellent, averaging 19.8 PPG (56% FG, 59% threes) and 4.5 RPG in 30.8 MPG against the team. He was constantly able to free himself up for three-pointers and his experience is going to help the Nets greatly in this series.

Brooklyn, however, will only go as far as PG Deron Williams (14.3 PPG, 6.1 APG) takes them. Williams has dealt with injuries throughout the entirety of his Nets career, but he is still their best player and has a tough matchup at the point guard position with Kyle Lowry. Williams averaged 13.5 PPG and 8.0 APG in two games against the Raptors this season, and will need to be even better if the Nets are going to advance in this series. SG Joe Johnson (15.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG) has been slowed by a calf injury, and will also be counted on to provide a good chunk of offense. In the four meetings with Toronto this season, he averaged a solid 14.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG and 4.0 APG.

The Raptors had an outstanding regular season on both ends of the court, scoring 101.3 PPG (13th in NBA) and allowing 98.0 PPG (7th in league). They should also have a significant advantage on the boards where they outrebounded teams by +1.5 RPG (12th in NBA). Now they turn their attention to a big run in the Eastern Conference playoffs, and will lean mostly on SG DeMar DeRozan (22.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.0 APG) to carry the bulk of the scoring load. In three games against the Nets this season, DeRozan averaged 22.3 PPG on an efficient 50% FG and 56% threes. He has a major mismatch with a slower Joe Johnson likely to be checking him from the opening tip.

PG Kyle Lowry (17.9 PPG, 7.4 APG, 4.7 RPG) had a breakout season for the Raptor, and will need to use his speed and quickness to get the best of a matchup with a slower Deron Williams. In four meetings with the Nets this season, Lowry averaged 22.0 PPG (50% FG, 48% threes), 6.0 APG, 4.8 RPG and 2.3 SPG. One player who must really take his game to the next level is C Jonas Valanciunas (11.3 PPG, 8.8 RPG). The big man averaged 10.3 PPG and 8.8 RPG in just 24.5 MPG in this series, and must find a way to impact the game even when the Nets opt to go with a small-ball lineup.

Golden State (51-31) at L.A. Clippers (57-25)

Western Conference First Round - Game 1
Tip-off: Saturday, 3:35 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Los Angeles -7, Total: 211.5

The 2014 playoffs begin for the Warriors and Clippers this Saturday afternoon when they meet for Game 1 at Staples Center.

Golden State put together an exciting season with the “splash brothers” and eventually finished in sixth place in the Western Conference. The team played well over its final stretch of games, winning five of its last seven SU (6-1 ATS), including 2-1 SU (3-0 ATS) in its last three away games. The Warriors had a strong showing in last year's playoffs as the sixth seed, defeating the Nuggets in six games before giving the Spurs a run for their money, taking the series to six games but eventually faltering to the more experienced and talented team. Los Angeles really turned it on down the stretch, winning 20 of its final 25 games (15-9-1 ATS) to close the regular season. They have won 7-of-10 games coming into the playoffs with all three losses coming against other Western Conference playoff teams (Dallas, Oklahoma City, Portland). L.A. was the No. 4 seed in last season’s playoffs, but could not overcome the stingy defense of the Grizzlies, and after winning the first two games of the series, the club lost four in a row and was sent home after the first round. Golden State played very well on the road this season, going 24-17 SU while putting together a 23-18 ATS record. On the other hand, the Clippers were a force at home with a 34-7 SU mark (21-20 ATS) and won their games there by an average of 10.8 PPG.

All four games in the season series were won by the home club, with only one game decided by less than 11 points. Los Angeles was 3-1 ATS in the series and rolled to wins of 126-115 and 111-98 when the teams last met on March 12, as the Clippers outshot the Warriors 49% FG to 44% FG. Both teams are relatively healthy coming into the playoffs with C Andrew Bogut (ribs) expected to miss the first few games of the series for the Warriors and SF Danny Granger (hamstring) is probable for the Clippers after missing the last nine games of the season.

Golden State once again will play a first-round series against the NBA’s best offense, and will counter with a team that has put up 104.3 PPG (10th in league) this season while hitting 38.0% of its three-pointers (4th in NBA). The Warriors finished out the season by scoring 114.8 PPG (48.1% FG) over their final five games, but allowed their opponents to score 109.2 PPG (44.4% FG) in that time as well. Overall on the season, their defense gave up just 99.5 PPG (10th in NBA) on 43.6% FG (4th in league) and 34.4% threes (3rd in NBA). PG Stephen Curry (24.0 PPG, 8.5 SPG, 1.6 SPG) made more three-point shots (261) than anyone else in the NBA this season and was impressive over his final four games with 33.3 PPG, 9.5 APG, 5.8 RPG and 3.0 SPG before sitting out the final contest for rest. He was solid against the Clips this season over four games too, averaging 22.0 PPG (53% FG) to go along with 9.5 APG and 4.5 RPG.

PF David Lee (18.2 PPG, 9.3 RPG) missed some time late in the season with a sore hamstring, but came back to look at full strength and shot 12-of-14 from the field for 25 points and nine rebounds in the team’s second-to-last game. Over 24 career games (19 starts) against Los Angeles, Lee has compiled 16.0 PPG (53% FG) and 9.7 RPG. SG Klay Thompson (18.4 PPG, 42% threes) was second in the league with 223 made three-pointers, and he put up 18.8 PPG (47% FG) with 2.0 SPG against the Clippers over four games this season. In 12 playoff games last year, Thompson scored 15.2 PPG (44% FG) while making 42% of his threes.

The Clippers had the league's most prolific offense this season, netting 107.9 PPG, while hitting 47.4% of their shots (3rd in NBA), but only 35.2% threes (22nd in league). The team is scoring even more coming into the playoffs with 111.8 PPG (48.4% FG) over their final five games of the regular season. Their defense was average on the season in terms of points allowed (101.0 PPG, 14th in NBA), but limited opponents to 44.1% FG (5th in league) and an NBA-best 33.2% threes, which is crucial facing such a great long-range shooting team like the Warriors. PG Chris Paul (19.1 PPG, 10.7 APG, 2.5 SPG) had a double-double in each of his past two games, and has averaged 20.9 PPG (48% FG), 9.5 APG, 5.0 RPG and 2.2 SPG over 40 career postseason games. He was tremendous against the Warriors over three games this season too, compiling 28.0 PPG (47% FG), 12.7 APG and 3.7 SPG.

PF Blake Griffin (24.1 PPG, 9.5 RPG) finished off the regular season scoring at least 23 points in each of his last six games played, and averaged a double-double (25.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG) with 2.0 SPG in his four contests against Golden State this season. He really struggled in his playoff stint last year against the Grizzlies though, scoring just 13.2 PPG (45% FG) while grabbing only 5.5 RPG in six games. C DeAndre Jordan (10.4 PPG, 13.6 RPG, 2.5 BPG) led the league in shooting this season at 67.6% FG, and did very well against the Warriors this season with 10.3 PPG (64% FG), 15.3 RPG and 3.5 BPG. The team will also count on SG Jamal Crawford (18.6 PPG, 3.2 APG) to contribute more offense than he did last postseason when he scored just 10.8 PPG on 39% FG and 6-of-22 threes (27%).

Atlanta (38-44) at Indiana (56-26)

Eastern Conference First Round - Game 1
Tip-off: Saturday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Indiana -7.5, Total: 187.5

The Pacers worked hard to earn the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, and will begin their quest for the franchise's first NBA Championship on Saturday when they host the Hawks.

Atlanta nearly fell out of the playoff picture with six straight losses from March 21-29, but finished the regular season strong with a 7-3 record (SU and ATS) in its final 10 games to clinch the No. 8 seed. Indiana also struggled late in the season with a 2-7 mark (0-9 ATS) from March 22 to April 6, but won three of its final four games (SU and ATS) to capture the top spot in the East. These two clubs also met in the first round of last year's playoffs in the No. 3 vs. No. 6 matchup, with the Pacers winning the series in six games, including blowout victories in all three home games by 17, 15 and 23 points.

But this season, the teams split four games, including the 8-point underdog Hawks rolling to a shocking 107-88 victory at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in the most recent meeting on April 6. While Atlanta shot 56% FG and 44% threes that night, host Indiana managed shooting clips of 41% FG and 25% threes as the game marked the eighth time in the past nine meetings at this venue where the Over occurred. Both teams have favorable betting trends for the series opener, as the Hawks are 27-10 ATS (73%) on the road in the past three seasons after having won three of their past four games, while the Pacers are 43-28 ATS (61%) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the past two seasons. There are no new injuries for either team, as Atlanta is still without PF Gustavo Ayon (shoulder), while Indiana is still missing C Andrew Bynum (knee).

The Hawks had an extremely up-and-down season, but finished 15th in the league in both scoring (101.0 PPG) and defense (101.5 PPG allowed) and find themselves playing against a Pacers team that they are confident they can defeat. Atlanta's playoff hopes ride on the shoulders of PF Paul Millsap (17.9 PPG, 8.5 RPG), the team’s only All-Star. Millsap has really struggled against the tough frontcourt of the Pacers this season, averaging just 8.8 PPG (31% FG) and 9.3 RPG in four meetings. He will need to find a way to get himself going offensively or the Hawks will struggle to earn even one win in this series. Another player with the capability of helping Atlanta keep this series competitive is PG Jeff Teague (16.5 PPG, 6.7 APG). Teague has been hot in the final five games of the season, averaging 17.6 PPG (52% FG, 43% threes) in just 29.0 MPG, but he hasn't been very effective in this season series with a pedestrian 14.3 PPG (45% FG, 25% threes), 4.3 APG and 3.0 TOPG.

SF Kyle Korver (12.0 PPG, 47% 3PT) will need to find some holes in the Pacers defense throughout the course of this playoffs series. Korver was great against the Pacers in the regular season though, averaging 14.0 PPG on a blistering 65% FG (10-of-20 threes) with 4.0 RPG and 3.8 APG in 34.3 MPG. Another key to this series could be C Pero Antic (7.0 PPG, 4.2 RPG) who gave the Pacers fits this season with 17.0 PPG on 72% FG with 5.0 RPG in two meetings.

The Pacers achieved their goal of getting home-court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs due to an excellent defense (92.3 PPG allowed, 2nd in NBA) and a willingness to get on the glass (+3.5 RPG margin, 3rd in league). This helped make up for a poor offense (96.7 PPG, 24th in NBA) that didn't share the ball very well (20.1 APG, 27th in league). The Pacers will need a big series from Paul George (21.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG), who is the team’s only consistent source of offense. Against the Hawks this season, George averaged 22.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 3.3 SPG in 35.8 MPG.

If the Pacers are going to advance to the NBA Finals, C Roy Hibbert (10.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 2.2 BPG) is going to have to wake up. The All-Star averaged just 2.3 PPG and 3.5 RPG in 21.8 MPG over his final four games of the regular season, and didn't do much in the season series versus Atlanta either with a paltry 5.0 PPG on 28% FG and 3.8 RPG in the four meetings. But Hibbert was a huge part of this offense in the playoffs last season with 17.0 PPG and 9.9 RPG, and if he is not playing well, the Pacers will really struggle to move on. The biggest X-factor in this series is going to be SG Lance Stephenson (13.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 4.6 APG), who played poorly against the Hawks in the regular season, averaging just 8.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG and 4.0 APG in 29.7 MPG. PG George Hill (10.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.5 APG) has been slumping to finish the season, scoring just 2.7 PPG (3-of-8 FG) in the final three games. He doesn't have to score all that much versus Atlanta, who he averaged 9.0 PPG and 4.3 APG against during the regular season, but he will really need to concentrate on containing Jeff Teague.

Memphis (50-32) at Oklahoma City (59-23)

Western Conference First Round - Game 1
Tip-off: Saturday, 9:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Oklahoma City -7, Total: 192.5

A healthy Russell Westbrook will look to help lead the Thunder against the Grizzlies when the teams open their postseason on Saturday in a rematch of last season’s Western Conference semifinal series.

Oklahoma City appeared ready to make a deep run in the playoffs last season, but star PG Russell Westbrook got hurt. In that series, Memphis was able to focus on Kevin Durant, and knocked the Thunder out in five games. However, it was a very competitive series as every game was decided by six points or less. Oklahoma City was able to get some revenge during the regular season as they took three of the four games in this series, including two straight at home. In the most recent meeting on Feb. 28 at Chesapeake Energy Arena, the Thunder won a high-scoring affair, 113-107, as the teams combined to shoot 50.3% FG and 52.6% threes. Durant scored 37 points in that game, as Oklahoma City had a 16-point lead entering the final quarter before holding off Memphis for the victory.

The Grizzlies have been on a torrid pace as of late, averaging 105.8 PPG on 52% FG during their five-game win streak. Memphis was just 10-13 without C Marc Gasol (14.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.3 BPG) this season, but is 40-19 (.678) with its big man in uniform. When Gasol is on the floor for the Grizzlies, Memphis has one of the most versatile frontcourts in the NBA. He is one of the best passing centers in the league, and that allows PF Zach Randolph (17.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG) to have the one-on-one matchups on the low block. Randolph is not going to wow you with crazy athleticism, but he is a smart player that is relentless when attacking the rim. Randolph averaged 16.5 PPG and 11.0 RPG during the four meetings with the Thunder during the regular season, but he struggled with his shot, making just 37% FG and 67% FT. But he was a beast against Oklahoma City in the playoffs last season, averaging 18.4 PPG (45% FG) and 10.8 RPG during the five-game series.

PG Mike Conley (17.2 PPG, 6.0 APG, 2.9 RPG) set a career-high for points this season, giving the Grizzlies a third scorer they desperately need. He also ran the offense effectively all season, especially against the Thunder, who he averaged 15.0 PPG and 8.3 APG against over three meetings. Conley's heady play on both ends of the court is a big reason why Memphis ranks third in the NBA in both fewest turnovers (12.9 TOPG) and scoring defense (94.6 PPG allowed). These two stats are huge for a team that at times can struggle to score, ranking 27th in the NBA with only 96.1 PPG. Mike Miller (7.1 PPG, 46% threes) is the only consistent long-range shooter on the team, and he burned Oklahoma City this season for 9.8 PPG on 58% threes (7-of-12). The biggest advantage for the Grizzlies is the fact that they are built to win in the playoffs, where the tempo tends to slow down and possessions become more valuable, so that could play a big role in this series if they are able to slow down the high-powered Thunder.

Oklahoma City is a bit too careless with the ball, averaging 14.8 turnovers per game on the season (5th-worst in NBA). However, that has not prevented the club from scoring, as it ranks fifth in the league in points at 106.2 PPG on an impressive shooting clip of 47.1% FG (6th in NBA) and a solid 36.1% threes (14th in league). Free throws tend to play a big role in the playoffs, and the Thunder rank second in the NBA in this department at 80.6% FT. Compare that to the Grizzlies' 74.1% FT clip (23rd in league), and the Thunder will have a great chance to prevail if it turns into a free-throw contest. PG Russell Westbrook (21.8 PPG, 6.9 APG, 5.7 RPG) is scary enough when he is playing a normal game. Add the fact that he was unable to play in the playoffs last season against the Grizzlies, and Memphis is going to have to be ready to protect the rim. When Westbrook is able to get some points in transition early, he becomes nearly impossible to slow down, which Memphis witnessed first-hand this season when Westbrook tallied 24.0 PPG (58% FG), 7.5 APG, 4.0 RPG and 2.5 SPG in two meetings. While SF Kevin Durant (32.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG) is the star of the team, Westbrook is the guy that gets both the team and fans into the game.

Durant just wrapped up his fourth scoring title in the past five seasons, including 30.8 PPG (52% FG), 6.0 RPG and 5.0 APG versus Memphis this season. He is too good for anyone to slow down from scoring, but he has become a more complete basketball player. With Westbrook out last season, he put too much pressure to do it on his own, and wound up with 28.8 PPG during the series loss to the Grizzlies, but he shot just 42% FG and 36% threes in the five games. Durant demands such a focus from the defense, and he has done a great job this season of making the extra pass to get a teammate an easy basket with a career-high 5.5 APG. The team is more prepared for a deep playoff run this season because the bench has been bolstered with players like PG Reggie Jackson (13.1 PPG, 4.1 APG, 3.9 RPG), SF Caron Butler (9.7 PPG, 3.2 RPG) and SG Jeremy Lamb (8.5 PPG) to give the team more scoring from the second unit. Jackson had to play a lot of minutes last postseason when Westbrook went out, and played very well versus Memphis with 13.8 PPG (50% FG), 6.2 RPG and 3.8 APG in the five-game series. PF Serge Ibaka (15.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.7 BPG) has continued to improve on the offensive end, while remaining one of the best shot-blockers in the game. He also held his own against the strong Grizzlies frontcourt this season, averaging 15.0 PPG (51% FG), 9.3 RPG and 2.5 BPG in four meetings.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-19-2014, 01:11 AM

Saturday's Early Action

April 18, 2014

Nets at Raptors (-2 ½, 194) – 12:30 PM EST – ESPN

Brooklyn: 44-38 SU, 42-40 ATS
Toronto: 48-34 SU, 46-33-3 ATS

The top two teams in the Atlantic Division meet in the 3/6 playoff matchup to tip off the 2014 NBA Playoffs at the Air Canada Center. However you want to characterize it, the Nets manipulated their way into the sixth seed after embarrassing losses to the Knicks and Cavaliers to close out the regular season, setting up a potential matchup with the Heat in the second round, a team they swept 4-0 this season. Brooklyn won’t have it easy in this round against a Toronto team that gave them fits in four meetings.

The Raptors and Nets split four matchups this season, with three of those games decided by four points or less. When Brooklyn was struggling back in November and Deron Williams was sidelined, the Nets went into Toronto and edged the Raptors, 102-100 as 6 ½-point underdogs on November 26 which snapped a five-game skid. The Raptors won two of the next three meetings, including a 104-103 triumph at the Barclays Center on January 27 with leading scorer DeMar DeRozan out due to injury, as three of the four games finished ‘over’ the total.

Toronto is one of the least experienced playoff teams, as DeRozan is making his postseason debut, while second-leading scorer Kyle Lowry played 13 games off the bench for the Rockets during the 2009 playoffs. The Raptors put together a 26-15 straight-up record at home, but barely profited at the Air Canada Center with a 21-18-2 ATS mark. When facing playoff opponents at home, the Raps struggled by putting together a 6-7 SU/ATS record, which included a pair of wins over sub-.500 Atlanta.

When reviewing the four games between the Nets and Raptors, three times Brooklyn played with no rest, as Jason Kidd’s club put together a dreadful 6-14 SU and 8-12 ATS record on the second of a back-to-back. That situation obviously doesn’t apply during this series, but it should be noted that the Nets didn’t play their best against the Raptors due to the rest spot, while Toronto played Brooklyn once without rest.

The Nets weren’t a strong road club, posting a 15-25 SU and 17-23 ATS mark away from the Barclays Center. Since covering as double-digit underdogs at Indiana in early February, Brooklyn owns a putrid 3-8 SU/ATS ledger the last 11 opportunities as a road ‘dog, although two of those victories came at Miami. In the past 17 games in the away ‘dog role, 13 times the Nets were limited to 99 points or less, as three contests in which they surpassed the 100-point mark ended in overtime.

Warriors at Clippers (-7, 211 ½) – 3:30 PM EST – ABC

Golden State: 51-31 SU, 41-38-3 ATS
Los Angeles: 57-25 SU, 46-35-1 ATS

It’s a battle of Northern California against Southern California as these two Pacific Division rivals meet in the playoffs for the first time ever. The Clippers and Warriors split four games this season with the home team winning each time, while Los Angeles took both meetings at Staples Center by double-digits. Los Angeles built a 2-0 lead over Memphis in the first round of the playoffs last season before dropping four straight, as the Clippers will try to get over the hump in Doc Rivers’ postseason debut as the leading man of the Clips.

The Warriors advanced to the second round of the playoffs last season and gave the Spurs a major scare before bowing out in six games. Now, Golden State returns to the postseason with the same seed (6) and playing the underdog role once again. Mark Jackson’s team failed to cover in both losses at Staples Center, but put together a 10-6 ATS record in the road underdog role this season, which included outright victories at Indiana, Miami, and Dallas.

The Clippers dominated opponents at home this season, going 34-7, but covered just 21 times. As a single-digit home favorite, Los Angeles compiled an 11-11 SU/ATS record, which includes a 3-7 ATS record since mid-January. After getting blown out by Phoenix on December 30, the Clippers have broken the 100-point barrier in 25 straight games at Staples Center, but the ‘under’ is currently on a 9-3-1 run in Los Angeles.

Since January 2013, the home team has won each of the last seven meetings, including three straight resounding victories by the Clippers at Staples Center. The Warriors are banged-up in the frontcourt with center Andrew Bogut out indefinitely due to a bruised rib, but forward David Lee will be ready for the playoffs after missing eight of the final 12 games with a hamstring pull.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-19-2014, 01:13 AM

Saturday's Late Action

April 17, 2014

**Atlanta at Indiana**

-- As of late Thursday afternoon, most books had Indiana (56-26 straight up, 38-43-1 against the spread) listed as a 7.5-point home favorite for Saturday's Game 1 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The total is 186, while the Hawks are +270 on the money line (risk $100 to win $270).

-- Indiana certainly hasn't looked like a No. 1 seed lately. In fact, Frank Vogel's team has lost 13 of its last 23 games. Nevertheless, the Pacers garnered the top seed in the Eastern Conference thanks to Miami's woes (injuries) down the stretch and a crucial home win over Oklahoma City this past Sunday. Indiana won a 102-97 decision over the Thunder as a one-point home underdog thanks to a triple-double from Lance Stephenson, who tallied 17 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds. David West added 21 points, while Paul George and C.J. Watson scored 20 apiece.

-- George was a monster in last year's playoffs, going toe-to-toe with LeBron James for the first six games of the East finals. He finished the regular season averaging 21.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.9 steals per game. West averages 14.0 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, while Stephenson is the club's third-leading scorer (13.8 PPG), top assist man (4.6 APG) and second-leading rebounder (7.2 RPG).

-- Roy Hibbert is in the midst of an abysmal shooting slump, as the seven-foot-two-inch center from out of Georgetown has made only three of his last 29 attempts from the field.

-- Atlanta (38-44 SU, 38-43-1 ATS) has been an underdog 51 times this season, compiling a 23-27-1 spread record. However, we should note that the Hawks have taken the cash in five consecutive games as underdogs, winning four of those contests outright.

-- Atlanta was the No. 3 seed in the East when its perennial All-Star power forward Al Horford was lost for the season with a torn pectoral muscle in late December. Without Horford, the Hawks faded fast and they dropped 14 of 15 games from Feb. 4 to March 8. Since March 10, however, Mike Budenholzer's squad has won 12 of 21 games to hold off the hard-charging Knicks to get into the playoffs.

-- Atlanta is led by Paul Millsap, who earned his first invite to the All-Star Game after inking a two-year deal with the Hawks during the offseason. Millsap averaged 17.9 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.1 blocked shots per game. Jeff Teague also enjoyed a solid season, averaging 16.5 points and 6.7 assists per contest. He gets a lot of those helpers after dishing off to Kyle Korver, who averages 12.0 PPG and makes 47.2 percent of his 3's and 92.6 percent of his free throws.

-- These teams met in last year's playoffs with the Pacers advancing in six games. These clubs split four regular-season meetings, but Atlanta won the most recent encounter in blowout fashion at Indy two Sundays ago. The Hawks held Indiana to its lowest first-half scoring output (23) in franchise history. They led the Pacers by 32 at intermission and cruised to a 107-88 win as eight-point road underdogs. Teague led the way with a game-high 25 points, while Millsap added 17 points and 11 boards. Pero Antic, a seven-foot stretch center who can drain 3-balls, had 18 points on 7-of-8 shooting from the field, including 3-of-4 makes from 3-point land. Antic's range can pull his defender, whether it be Hibbert, West or Luis Scola, away from the basket and create more room for Teague to operate with dribble penetration.

-- The 'over' went 44-37-1 overall for the Hawks this year, going 24-16-1 in their road assignments.

-- The 'under' went 44-35-3 overall for the Pacers, cashing at a 25-16 clip in their home games.

-- In four head-to-head meetings this year, the totals were a wash (2-2) but we'll mention that the 'over' is 9-4 in the last 13 head-to-head encounters.

-- The Las Vegas Superbook (LVH) has the Pacers as -600 favorites to win the series. The Hawks are available for a +450 return (risk $100 to win $450).

-- Tip-off on ESPN is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. Eastern.

**Memphis at Oklahoma City**

-- As of late Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Oklahoma City (59-23 SU, 43-37-2 ATS) listed as a seven-point 'chalk' with a total of 192.5. Gamblers can take the Grizzlies to win outright for a +250 payout.

-- OKC is the No. 2 seed in the West after winning 34 of 41 home games and going 23-16-2 ATS. The Thunder avoided a three-game losing streak by winning Wednesday's regular-season finale over Detroit by a 112-111 count as a 14.5-point home favorite. Kevin Durant scored 42 points and dished out six assists.

-- Durant is probably going to win his first MVP award this year. The Texas product averaged a league-high 32.0 points, 7.4 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. Russell Westbrook missed games due to knee issues but appears to be 100 percent going into the postseason. In 46 games, Westbrook averaged 21.8 points, 6.9 assists and 5.7 rebounds per contest.

-- Memphis (50-32 SU, 36-43-3 ATS) had to battle down the stretch just to earn a playoff berth, but it did just that with five consecutive victories, including Wednesday's 106-105 overtime home win over Dallas. Both the Grizzlies and Mavs went winless over the top-seeded Spurs, so they played the regular-season finale with postseason intensity in hopes of avoiding an opening-round matchup with San Antonio. Zach Randolph paced the winners with 27 points and 14 rebounds, while Marc Gasol added 19 points, nine boards and nine assists.

-- Memphis owns a 14-18-1 spread record in 33 games as an underdog this year. The Grizz are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games at OKC.

-- OKC won three of four head-to-head meetings over Memphis this year, going 2-1-1 ATS. Totals were a wash (2-2). In the most recent showdown on Feb. 28, the Thunder won 113-107 as a six-point home 'chalk.' Durant dropped 37 points on the Grizz, who outscored OKC by 10 in the final stanza to earn their supporters a backdoor push.

-- The 'under' is 43-39 overall for Memphis, 26-15 in its road assignments.

-- The 'over' is 42-40 overall for OKC, 21-20 in its home outings.

-- The 'over' is 14-5 in the last 19 head-to-head meetings between these Western Conference rivals in Oklahoma City.

-- For the series price, LVH made the Thunder the -400 'chalk.' The Grizz are +330 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $330).

-- ESPN will have the broadcast at 9:35 p.m. Eastern.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-19-2014, 01:14 AM

Opening Round Angles

April 18, 2014

With help from our trusted well-oiled database, let’s examine four time-tested proven theories that have lined our pocket during the opening round of playoffs since 1991. Here’s what the machine has to say.

No. 8 Seeds Are Behind The 8-Ball

For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the post-season. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.

Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost over 70% of time (47-123) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks, the 2007 Golden State Warriors and the 2012 Philadelphia 76ers were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and advance to Round Two of the playoff.

And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch out of the match with alarming regularity, going 3-25 SU and 8-20 ATS, including 1-14 SU and 3-12 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a loss of 14 or more points in their last game.

Upset Losers Are Winners

No, it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.

That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 35-7 SU and 27-14-1, a rock solid number. And if they are squaring off against a No. 6 or lower seed they improve to 24-1 SU and 18-6-1 ATS.

Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. That’s because they don’t lose their composure. Instead they almost always elect to dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.

Double-Digit Dogma

Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 30-17-2 ATS in this role.

And if these same guys are involved in a game with the Over/Under total set at 193 or higher they zoom to 24-7 ATS, including 17-3 ATS when facing a non-division foe.

Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.

And Down Goes Frazier

The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are wobbly and oftentimes one punch away from being counted out.

With glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 6-33 SU and 12-27 ATS away from home this round, including 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in lid-lifters.

Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are 3-26 SU and 8-21 ATS on their way to the canvas.

Trending

Defending champions (the Miami Heat in this case) are 15-7 SU and 14-7-1 ATS in Game One of Round One the following season.

Enjoy the opening round of the 2014 NBA playoffs.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-19-2014, 10:38 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, April 19

Nets/Raptors split four games this season, with three of four going over total and teams going 1-1 in each building. Toronto has won one playoff series in its history (2001); they're 1-4 overall in first round series-- this is Raptors' first playoff appearance since '08. Nets are playoffs for 2nd time in last eight years; they haven't won playoff series since '07, but a veteran nucleus they have has won elsewhere. Nets lost four of last five games, are 18-23 vs spread on road. Toronto won six of last eight, with seven of those eight games going over the total. Casey has experience edge as a head coach, but both he and Kidd are in playoffs for 1st time.

Home side won last seven Warrior-Clipper games; Golden State lost last three visits here by 26-11-13 points. Golden State is in playoffs for just third time in 20 years; they won 1st round series last two appearances. Clippers are in playoffs for third time in row, first time they've done that since they were the Buffalo Braves in 1976. LA won seven of its last ten games, with eight of those ten going over total. Warriors won five of last seven games overall; under is 47-33 in their games this year, 25-16 on road. Golden State has had coaching turmoil; two assistants have been fired in last month.

Pacers are under lot of pressure after going 6-9 in last 15 games, though they did win three of last four; since Feb 12, Indiana is 6-24-1 against spread. Indiana beat Hawks in six games in playoffs LY, winning three games played here by 17-15-23 points- teams split four meetings in this season, going 1-1 in each building. Hawks won six of last eight games, with five of last six staying under total; Atlanta is in playoffs 7th year in a row, going 3-3 in first round previosu six years. Vogel won two of his three first round series; Budenholzer is rookie HC who was Spurs' aide.

Memphis ousted Oklahoma City in five games in playoffs LY, got to the Western Conference finals, and still fired its coach- Joerger is rookie HC but Grizzlies won last five games overall, despite covering only once in last five games as an underdog. Thunder won three of four vs Memphis this year, winning two games here by 9-6 points; OC won nine of last ten at home (7-2-1 vs spread)- they won last three first round series but decent amount of pressure on after making Finals in '14 then flopping in LY's second round. This is Brooks' 5th year as Thunder's coach.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-19-2014, 10:40 AM

NBA

Saturday, April 19

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Saturday's NBA playoffs betting news and notes
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Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors (-2.5, 194)

The Nets' starters boast a combined 399 career playoff games, while there are three playoff rookies - guard DeMar DeRozan, forward Terrence Ross and center Jonas Valanciunas - among the Raptors' first five. The teams split four meetings this season, with each squad going 1-1 on its home floor and three of the four games decided by four points or fewer.

After a slow start and a notable trade that sent swingman Rudy Gay to Sacramento, Toronto went 42-22 over the final four-plus months of the season to record a franchise record in victories and storm to the Atlantic Division crown - its first since 2006-07. DeRozan and point guard Kyle Lowry were the catalysts all season for Toronto, combining to average 40.6 points and 11.4 assists and stepping up their games against Brooklyn; DeRozan averaged 22.3 points and Lowry 22 points versus the Nets.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Toronto.
* Home team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
* Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers (-7, 211)

The Golden State Warriors went into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed last season and knocked off the third-seeded Denver Nuggets. They will be attempting to turn the same trick again this spring, though the competition will be different when the Warriors visit the third-seeded Los Angeles Clippers. Golden State and Los Angeles did not get along very well during the regular season, and Warriors guard Klay Thompson continued the war of words this week by talking about Clippers All-Star forward Blake Griffin. “He’s kind of like a bull in a china shop, kind of out of control sometimes,” Thompson told 95.7 The Game radio in San Francisco. “And then you do just see him flop sometimes, like how can a guy that big and strong flop that much?”

The Clippers are primed for a deep playoff run and brought in coach Doc Rivers in part for his experience in the postseason. Rivers is the biggest change from last spring, when Los Angeles dropped a first-round series to the Memphis Grizzlies under Vinny Del Negro, but he is not the only difference. The Clippers led the league in scoring and became a defensive force as the season progressed and DeAndre Jordan grew more comfortable with his role as an enforcer and rim protector. Clippers G Chris Paul averaged 28 points, 12.7 assists and 3.7 steals in three games against Golden State this season.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Warriors are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Under is 9-3-1 in Clippers last 13 home games.

Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers (-7.5, 186)

Atlanta was 10 games under .500 on April 3 before closing with six wins in the last eight games, including a 107-88 drubbing of the Pacers in Indiana on April 6. The Hawks bowed out in six games in the first round to the Pacers last season, dropping the final two games after evening the series with a pair of home victories. Atlanta doesn’t have Al Horford this time around but does have All-Star Paul Millsap. Atlanta can spread the floor with its frontcourt rotation of Millsap, Pero Antic, DeMarre Carroll and Mike Scott, and all five in the starting lineup are capable of stepping out and hitting 3-pointers.

The Pacers went 10-13 over the last six weeks of the season, briefly dropping out of the top spot in the East before winning three of four to close things out and top the Heat by two games. Indiana’s slump came after trading away veteran Danny Granger and signing mercurial center Andrew Bynum, and downturns in production from Roy Hibbert and Paul George didn’t help. Hibbert averaged 17 points and 9.9 rebounds in the playoffs last spring and the Pacers are counting on him to carry a heavy load again. Hibbert averaged five points on 28.1 percent shooting and 3.8 rebounds in the four games against the Hawks.

TRENDS:

* Over is 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings in Indiana.
* Favorite is 25-9-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings.
* Pacers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Conference Quarterfinals games.

Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder (-7, 192.5)

The Memphis Grizzlies eliminated an Oklahoma City team missing Russell Westbrook from last season’s playoffs and take aim at stunning the Thunder again when the first-round series opens in Oklahoma City on Saturday. The trio of Gasol, power forward Zach Randolph and point guard Mike Conley are used to waging battle with the Thunder, having surprisingly taken Oklahoma City to seven games in the 2011 conference semifinals before last season’s impressive series victory.

The Thunder posted the NBA’s second-best record despite Westbrook missing 36 games due to his balky knee and are expecting the first-round series to be quite a tussle. “It’s going to be a tough but fun series,” Kevin Durant told reporters. “We have a lot of history with these guys. We’re looking forward to getting the opportunity to play for a championship.” Durant is the favorite to win NBA MVP honors after leading the league in scoring with a 32-point average, the highest since Kobe Bryant averaged 35.4 points for the Lakers in 2005-06.

TRENDS:

* Grizzlies are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
* Under is 5-1 in Thunder's last six Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last five Conference Quarterfinals games.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-19-2014, 12:09 PM

Saturday, April 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Brooklyn - 12:30 PM ET Brooklyn +3 500 *****

Toronto - Under 192.5 500 *****

Golden State - 3:30 PM ET Golden State +7 500 DOUBLE PLAY

L.A. Clippers - Under 210.5 500 *****

**StarDust Bum** · 04-19-2014, 07:40 PM

EVENING PLAYS:

Atlanta - 7:00 PM ET Atlanta +7.5 500 *****

Indiana - Under 186.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Memphis - 9:30 PM ET Oklahoma City -7.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Oklahoma City - Under 191.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Announcement

Da Bum's 2014 NBA Playoff Best Bets- News,Stats-Trends !

Da Bum's 2014 NBA Playoff Best Bets- News,Stats-Trends !

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