Da Bum's 2014 NBA Playoff Best Bets- News,Stats-Trends !

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday, June 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Antonio - 9:00 PM ET San Antonio +4.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Miami - Over 197 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[Udog]

Alright! Another good one on the Spurs! I may have to go back and beef up my play a little. Thanks, Bum! Good luck tonight!

[StarDust Bum]

No problem Dog.......keep that bankroll building up............

[StarDust Bum]

Heat look to bounce back

June 11, 2014


San Antonio (76-27) at Miami (67-33)

NBA Finals
Game 4 - San Antonio leads series 2-1
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Miami -5, Total: 197.5

The Heat look to even the NBA Finals on Thursday night after allowing the Spurs to take control of the series in Game 3.

From the opening tip on Tuesday, San Antonio made it clear that it was not intimidated by playing on the road. The club put on an unbelievable shooting display (59.4% FG, 45.0% threes, 81.2% FT) in a 111-92 blowout of the four-point favorite Heat. The Spurs, who are now 34-16 SU (28-22 ATS) away from home, turned the ball over 12 times in Game 3 compared to the Heat's 20 miscues. Although Miami is only 24-25-1 ATS at home this season, the club is still 40-10 SU, and is also 6-2 SU (4-4 ATS) versus San Antonio at AmericanAirlines Arena over the past three seasons.

For those betting in this contest, the Spurs are 24-9 ATS over the past three seasons after a road win in which they scored 110 or more points. But they are only 2-8 ATS in the fourth game of a playoff series in that time timeframe while Miami is 3-0 ATS in fourth games of series this year. The Heat also happen to be 8-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the past three years. Sixteen of the past 22 games played in Miami between these teams since 1996 have gone Under the total.

The Spurs put on an offensive clinic against the Heat in Game 3, scoring 111 points in the game, including a 71-point first half where they shot an NBA Finals record 75.8% FG. SF Kawhi Leonard (15.7 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 1.3 SPG in series) played the best playoff game of his life on Tuesday, scoring a career-high 29 points (10-of-13 FG, 3-of-6 threes) while also coming away with four rebounds, two steals and two blocks in 39 minutes. Leonard, who scored only 9.0 PPG in the first two games of this series, also played some smothering defense on LeBron James while the Heat were threatening to make a comeback early in the fourth quarter.

SG Danny Green (12.3 PPG, 2.7 SPG in series) also had a huge game for the Spurs, finishing with 15 points (7-of-8 FG, 1-of-2 threes), three assists and five steals in just 21 minutes of play. Green did most of his damage from inside the three-point line, which is something that the Heat defense was not ready for on Tuesday. His ability to drive the ball should make him an extremely tough cover the rest of the way, as Miami will not be able to simply key in on his jumper. PF Tim Duncan (17.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG in series) continued to be a presence inside, playing 30 minutes and ending up with 14 points and six rebounds. Miami has been no match for Duncan when he is catching the ball with at least one foot in the paint, so San Antonio will definitely look to get Duncan the ball more often if the outside shots stop falling. PG Tony Parker (18.3 PPG, 6.3 APG, 1.3 SPG in series) and SG Manu Ginobili (15.3 PPG, 5.3 APG, 1.7 SPG in series) combined to score 26 points in this game, but when their role players aren’t shooting the lights out in Game 4, they will need to be way more aggressive in getting shots for themselves.

Although Miami was blown out on its home floor on Tuesday, there was seemingly not much that they could do to prevent it. The Spurs were not missing anything from the outside in the first half and it put the Heat in too big of a hole to climb out of. SF LeBron James (27.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 4.3 APG, 3.3 SPG in series) was not at his best on Tuesday, despite getting off to a hot start. James had 15 points in the first quarter, but he finished with just 22 points (9-of-14 FG) in the game. Kawhi Leonard really gave him trouble in the second half and James wound up with seven turnovers and a game-low rating of minus-21. The superstar abandoned his jumper late in the contest and should look to be more aggressive when his defenders back off of him in Game 4 and beyond.

SG Dwyane Wade (18.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.3 SPG in series) was also strong offensively in this game, ending up with 22 points (8-of-12 FG) in 36 minutes. However, Wade committed five turnovers and was exploited defensively at times. He will need to be much more active as he chases around the Spurs’ shooters the rest of the series. One of the best sources of offense in this series for Miami has surprisingly been PF Rashard Lewis (12.7 PPG in series). Lewis was a non-factor for most of the playoffs and regular season for Miami, but he has now scored 14 points in back-to-back games and has reached double-digits in five straight contests. If Lewis can continue to hit his threes (4-for-5 in Game 3, 9-for-18 in series), the floor is going to be wide open for his teammates to operate. PF Chris Bosh (15.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG in series) will need more touches the rest of the way, as he hit all of his four attempts in Game 3. He also has to get in the paint more, as he pulled down only three rebounds in 34 minutes and finished with a minus-18 rating.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

San Antonio at Miami
The Heat look to bounce back from their 111-92 loss in Game 3 and come into tonight's contest with a 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home. Miami is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

THURSDAY, JUNE 12

Game 707-708: San Antonio at Miami (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.973; Miami 133.974
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 9; 203
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 5; 197
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, June 12

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SAN ANTONIO (76 - 27) at MIAMI (67 - 33) - 6/12/2014, 9:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 8-7 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 9-6 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, June 12

Spurs scored 41 points in first quarter, 71 in first half Tuesday; their eFG% was over 100% in first quarter, second time they've done that in this series. Home team won 12 of last 17 series games, but lost two of three in this series; Spurs lost seven of last nine visits here. Nine of last 12 Miami games went over total; seven of last eleven San Antonio games stayed under. Spurs are just 4-5 on road in playoffs, 3-2 vs spread when getting points. Heat is 8-1 SU at home in playoffs, 6-3 vs spread. Miami was -22 in 40:05 that Lebron James sat out in first three games. Spurs scored 110-111 points in their two wins, 96 in their loss.

Over is 50-37 in playoffs this season.
Favorites are 35-52 in playoffs this season




NBA

Thursday, June 12

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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. MIAMI
San Antonio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Antonio's last 10 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 10 games when playing San Antonio
Miami is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games


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NBA

Thursday, June 12

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Game of the Day: Spurs at Heat
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San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat (-5.5, 197)

Spurs lead series 2-1

The San Antonio Spurs are coming off an epic performance and look to claim a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals when they visit the Miami Heat on Thursday. San Antonio set an NBA Finals record by shooting 75.8 percent from the field in the first half and led by as many as 25 points while rolling to a 111-92 victory in Tuesday’s Game 3. Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard broke out of his funk by scoring a career-best 29 points.

Miami forward LeBron James had 22 points but 14 of them came in the first quarter before Leonard clamped down on him on the defensive end. Leonard scored 16 points on 5-of-5 shooting in the opening period as San Antonio scored 41 points and had 71 at the half against the shell-shocked Heat. “One thing about (the Spurs), if you make a mistake, they’re going to make you pay,” James said afterward. “And they made us pay more often than not.” Game 4 is doubly important to the Heat with the NBA switching from a 2-3-2 series format to a 2-2-1-1-1 as a second straight Spurs victory in Miami would put San Antonio in position to clinch the series at home in Sunday’s Game 5.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The Heat opened at -5.5, quickly dropped to -5 and have since gone back up to -5.5. The total opened at 198 but has slowly dipped to 197.

INJURY REPORT: N/A.

ABOUT THE SPURS: Leonard was a huge disappointment while averaging just nine points and two rebounds over the first two games before erupting for the best performance of his three-year career. He made 10-of-13 field-goal attempts and also frustrated James over the final three quarters. Leonard set the tone for the Spurs with the strong first quarter showing as he cast aside the tentativeness he displayed over the first two games. “I just was in attack mode,” Leonard told reporters afterward. “Trying to be aggressive early. Just knocking down a couple of shots got me going. My teammates found me. They did a good job of getting me involved.”

ABOUT THE HEAT: Starting point guard Mario Chalmers has been a complete non-factor in the series and missed all five of his field-goal attempts while scoring just two points in Game 3. Chalmers is averaging just 3.3 points on 3-of-12 shooting and has the same number of turnovers as assists (nine apiece) as Miami is getting badly outplayed at the point-guard position. “Still at the drawing board,” Chalmers said after Game 3 in response to questions about his poor play. “Everybody else is doing their job, and it’s me that’s not helping the team right now. And I don’t want to be that guy. I don’t know what it is right now but I have to figure it out.”

TRENDS:

* Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 following a double-digit loss at home.
* Spurs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference.
* Over is 5-0 in Miami's last five home games.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-nine percent of wagers on consensus on the Spurs.



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NBA

Thursday, June 12

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Spurs-Heat Game 4: The game inside the game
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The degree by which San Antonio dominated Game #3 would have been difficult to project, with the opening salvo among the best offensive basketball ever played in the NBA Finals. But the manner in which the Spurs controlled play should not have come as a surprise. So the best way to begin building a handicap for Game #4 is to take a couple of steps back.

When it was time to project Game #2 on this page there was a breakdown of how difficult the opener was to ******, because of the absence of LeBron James down the stretch. But there was a clear reality when he was on the court, and this was the key takeaway in terms of setting the tone for viewing the ensuing matchup -

“This series will turn on the efficiency and passing of the San Antonio offense vs. the activity of the Miami defense in the passing lanes.”

That is exactly what Game #3 was about, after Gregg Popovich made an adjustment and put Boris Diaw into the starting lineup. The Spurs move the ball better than any team in the NBA, with that being a major part of their success at a time in which unimaginative offenses, relying on dribbling and pick-and-rolls, are the vogue. And as fast as they move it with their usual starting lineup, when Diaw replaces Splitter, which they can do against a team like Miami that lacks a pivot threat on offense, the spacing and pace become even more dynamic. That offense exploded for 41 points in the first quarter, the most in a Finals game since 1967, and of the 13 made FG’s, there were nine assists. There could have been even more assists, but Miami’s befuddled defense committed four shooting fouls in the period.

Yes, the shooting percentage for San Antonio, which opened 19-21, will look like a statistical outlier. But a focus point that has been talked about here during the playoffs, and will roll on with us through the future, is how much those percentages are shaped by the quality of the shot. The Spurs were getting excellent looks, with the Heat rotations consistently a step slow. They only managed eight steals, after getting 14 in the opener, and when they do not impact the passing lanes their defense can be had around the basket, without the presence of a shot blocker (only one of the 64 San Antonio attempts got swatted away).

As for Diaw, his impact goes far beyond what the traditional statistics measure. He had nine points, five rebounds and three assists in 37:17, which could elicit yawns. But the fact that only James and Kawhi Leonard played more minutes shows his significance, and since the start of the Oklahoma City series his +/- is up to +71. Pro-rate it to 48:00, and they have been beating two outstanding teams by 13.0 points per game when he is on the floor. His presence particularly helped to create space for Leonard, who looked remarkably confident in knocking down 10-13 shots, and carried that confidence boost to the other end of the court for solid defense on James.

The headache now for Erik Spoelstra is finding a way for his defense to be able to compete. But it is not just about defense. So let’s take a step back again to this page in the projecting Game #3, a take on the chemistry issues that can make Spoelstra’s adjustments even more difficult.

“Keep this as a major part of your thinking, in expounding on that theme – the Spurs know who they are. But because the Miami rotations have changed so much during the playoffs, the Heat will not show the same rhythm and chemistry. Prime example - Ray Allen had not had back-to-back games all season of 32:00 or more until the first two of this series. Meanwhile Udonis Haslem has gone from being a starter to an 0:46 sneeze on Sunday. The shots made by James enabled them to overcome that, but through 96 minutes a ratio of 32 assists vs. 27 turnovers is not the kind of chemistry that wins championships.”

Yes, by altering the rotation so much, the defensive chemistry is struggling. But so is the offense - through three they have nearly as many turnovers (47) as assists (49). And no, you will not win a championship with that. Lost amidst the rubble of the Tuesday loss was the fact that Miami actually connected well from the field, a 32-62 that included 10-21 triples, and to lose at home by 19 when a team shoots that well is extremely rare. Once again the offense relied too much on perimeter shots, and James was only able to get to the FT line for three attempts.

So is it really that bleak for the Heat? From an X’s and O’s standpoint, yes, there is not a chalkboard solution. But there is that matter of having the greatest player in the game, surrounded by a lot of veterans that can reach back for something. Over the past two playoff runs Miami is 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS off of a loss, beating the spread by a significant 106.5 points over those games. Three times in the Finals they have lost to the Spurs in double figures, including that 113-77 disaster in Game #3 LY, and rebounded to win the next contest (2-1 ATS).

The market pattern will reflect this – Miami will certainly go off as a bigger favorite on Thursday than in Game #3, with -5 common already. As you build your handicap that recent Heat history absolutely matters, because they will compete at a high level come tipoff. But because this matchup is what it is, they have to do more than compete at a high level to cover that impost - they will have to execute at a level they might not have reached yet in the 2014 playoffs (Game #7 vs. Indiana was as much about the Pacers being bad as the Heat being great).




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NBA

Thursday, June 12

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NBA roundup: Silver fears legal holdup in Clippers' sale
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NBA commissioner Adam Silver acknowledged Wednesday that he is worried the sale of the Los Angeles Clippers to former Microsoft executive Steve Ballmer will be slowed down in the courts.

"The biggest concern is that we're going to get stuck in a quagmire, of sorts, in litigation," Silver said during an appearance on ESPN Radio's "Mike & Mike."

"But the outcome seems pretty clear as I said the other day: Shelly (Sterling) has an agreement with Steve Ballmer. She sold the team. There was a document signed by Donald Sterling giving her the right to negotiate that sale."

Shelly Sterling negotiated a $2 billion sale of the team to Ballmer on May 29 that her husband said last week he would sign off on. But Donald Sterling has since issued statements vowing to fight the sale.

---Timing was not on the side of the Miami Heat in Game 3 of the 2014 NBA Finals.

Chris Bosh said Miami played its "worst game of the season, probably the worst game we've played together" Tuesday in a 111-92 loss to the San Antonio Spurs.

LeBron James called for a more physical mindset in Game 4 on Thursday after a two-hour film session with coach Erik Spoelstra during which the coach tried to light a fire under his team.

The Spurs shot lights-out from the start of the game. The Spurs shot an otherworldly 86.7 percent from the floor in the first quarter. San Antonio shot 75.8 percent for the first half, which set an NBA Finals record for the opening two quarters, and maintained a double-digit lead for most of the game.

--- Game 3 of the 2014 NBA Finals generated a 10.3 overnight rating on ABC, up from last year's Game 3 between the same teams.

The broadcast marked the 40th consecutive time an NBA Finals game won the night across all television, nearly doubling its competition. San Antonio (40.5), Miami (30.9), West Palm Beach (18.2), Austin (17.9) and Memphis (14.8) were among the top local markets.

Game 3 also generated 346,000 unique viewers on the ESPN3 digital platform, up 61 percent from last year.

Game 4 is Thursday at 9 p.m.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Thursday, June 12


Crucial line update for Game 4 of NBA Finals

Game 4 of the NBA Finals tips off at American Airlines Arena in tonight in Miami and it seems that bettors think the series will head back to San Antonio tied at 2 games apiece.

The line, in what is pretty much a must win game for the Heat, is back up to Miami -5.5. The Heat opened as 5.5-point favorites for the crucial matchup, but they were quickly bet to -5. However, the Heat were bet back to -5.5 just a few ours later.

[StarDust Bum]

Adjusted Series Prices

June 13, 2014

Below are the series prices from Sportsbook.ag

Adjusted Series Price (Opening Series Price)

NBA Finals

San Antonio vs. Miami (Spurs lead 3-1)
Spurs -1500 (-120)
Heat +900 (+100)

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Saturday, June 14


Saturday morning line update for Game 5 of NBA Finals

The San Antonio Spurs are just one win away from capturing their fifth NBA title and the line moves suggest bettors think the Spurs will get the job done Sunday night in San Antonio.

The Spurs are listed as 6-point favorites as of Saturday morning. They opened at -5.5 Friday morning and were quickly bet to -6. However the number did flip back to San Antonio -5.5 Friday afternoon, before settling back at -6 Friday night.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Miami at San Antonio
The Heat look to avoid elimination on Sunday night and come into Game 5 with an 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games when trailing in a playoff series. Miami is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+6). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SUNDAY, JUNE 15

Game 709-710: Miami at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 131.797; San Antonio 127.150
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 4 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+6); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, June 15

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MIAMI (67 - 34) at SAN ANTONIO (77 - 27) - 6/15/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 57-47 ATS (+5.3 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 48-40 ATS (+4.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 81-59 ATS (+16.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 287-227 ATS (+37.3 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 72-47 ATS (+20.3 Units) in home games in all playoff games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 71-51 ATS (+14.9 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 93-70 ATS (+16.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 110-81 ATS (+20.9 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
MIAMI is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 32-19 ATS (+11.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 9-7 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 9-7 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, June 15

Spurs are first team since '77 Blazers to win consecutive Finals games by 19+ points; they can win fifth NBA title tonight. SA shot 59%/57% in the two games in Miami; they're 8-1 vs spread in last nine home games. Heat is 5-4 on road in playoffs. Home team lost three of four games in this series. Nine of last 13 Miami games went over total; eight of last twelve San Antonio games stayed under. Miami was -22 in 50:26 that Lebron James sat out in first four games. Spurs scored 110-111-107 points in their three series wins, 96 in their loss.

Over is 50-38 in playoffs this season.
Favorites are 35-53 in playoffs this season, 1-3 in this series.




NBA

Sunday, June 15

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
MIAMI vs. SAN ANTONIO
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Miami's last 18 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 9 games


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NBA

Sunday, June 15

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Heat - Spurs Game 5: The game inside the game
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A series that many hoped would resemble the seven-game thriller of last June has been filled with Mastery, not Mystery. So as the teams head to San Antonio for Sunday night, the question becomes whether there is anything that the Heat can do to prevent a Championship trophy, on Fathers Day, going to someone called “Pops”.

The Miami issues in this series have been documented on these pages. The Game #2 win was not good basketball from the Heat, but rather a great individual performance from LeBron James that overcame a mediocre floor game. Outside of that, considering that the Spurs are flowing offensively as well as any team since the Magic-Worthy-Kareem Lakers, it has not been a surprise that they were able to take advantage of the Miami holes. It is how easily it has happened that would have been difficult to anticipate – no team in NBA Finals history ever won back-to-back road games by 40 points.

To recap the cracks in the Heat armor, it is a bit of a Good News/Bad News situation. The good is that Erik Spoelstra had a cast of veterans on the bench that he could mesh into just about any flow that was needed, and through these playoffs there has been a lot of lineup juggling, largely successful through the earlier rounds. The bad is that the San Antonio chemistry and execution is at such a high level that it takes a tremendous amount of teamwork to be able to match up. Spoelstra’s current configuration lacks that teamwork. Rashard Lewis, Ray Allen and Norris Cole are getting many more minutes than they had been accustomed to, and there just is not any way to get them into a defensive rotation that can cope with the way that the Spurs are moving the ball, especially when there is not a shot blocker to protect the rim. Imagine Spoelstra’s desperation when he went to Toney Douglas down 46-28 in the second quarter, the first time Douglas had left the bench in the first half of these playoffs.

San Antonio shot a sparkling 58.2 percent in the two wins at Miami, with 46 assists paving the way. It was a beautiful ballet of basketball to watch. Until the Heat got the ball, when those same chemistry issues came into play. By halftime of Game #4 Miami was down to a 50-50 ratio of assists to turnovers for the entire series, and imagine how ugly the Game #4 bottom line would have looked if not for that late barrage from James Jones (4-4 for 11 points, nailing all three triples) – the Heat were sitting on 75 with a little over 2:00 remaining.

There is also an issue that goes beyond the tactical X’s and O’s. A couple of weeks ago there was a take here on Dwayne Wade, and how the injury time off may have actually kept him a little fresher for the playoffs, with his spark vs. Indiana reminiscent of his former abilities. On Thursday Wade simply looked gassed. There was no lift in his legs, and he only managed 3-13 from the field, with two rebounds, over 32:54. He does get an extra day off before Game #5 tips off, but that may not be enough.

For as good as Miami has been in winning back-to-back titles, there simply may not be any options to correct the flaws this matchup brings. Spoelstra can not build a defensive chemistry over two practice sessions, and with Kawhil Leonard gaining in confidence as he guards James, the answers on offense are problematic as well. James has continued to shoot well from the perimeter, but as was discussed on this page earlier in the series, Gregg Popovich will give him those shots all evening.

Consider this – James was a terrific 19-31 from the field in the two games in Miami, including 6-12 from beyond the arc, and the Heat lost by 40. How does that happen? It happens because the offense works best when he is getting to the basket to break down the defense and create for the others. Leonard and the Spurs are closing that off, with part of the result reflected in James only getting to the line for nine FT attempts in the two defeats. As for the other part of the equation, on Thursday he only had two assists, and for the series it has been 18 turnovers vs. 15 successful dishes.

Now on to Sunday. The early markets have settled in at San Antonio -6, which marks the biggest underdog price Miami has been offered in the 380 games of the James era. But even the most ardent of Zig-Zag followers are going to find it difficult to reach into their pockets. If there is a chance for the Heat to be in the hunt it will not come from X’s and O’s adjustments, but from James reaching back for a special effort, or Wade finding his legs again. As such, if you harbor Miami notions you may want to look at individual James props instead, rather than a team wager – it would be no surprise if he played well into the 40’s if the game is competitive.

That last line perhaps says it all. In the Game #4 prelude the closing line was that for the Heat to win - “they will have to execute a level they might not have reached yet in the 2014 playoffs”. The gap really is that wide, and if Sunday brings us the last chance to see the Spurs in this configuration (Tim Duncan could make this his NBA Swan Song), the level of basketball they have played is something that will be appreciated far into the years ahead.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Sunday, June 15

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Game of the Day: Heat at Spurs
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Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (-6, 196)

The San Antonio Spurs are one victory away from their fifth NBA title and can claim their first championship since 2007 when they host the Miami Heat in Sunday’s Game 5. San Antonio rolled to back-to-back dominating wins in Miami to take a 3-1 series lead and is in good shape when you consider no NBA team has ever recovered from that deficit in NBA Finals play. The Spurs’ three victories are by an average of 18.3 points.

Heat standout LeBron James was among the stunned players over how easily San Antonio dismantled Miami the past two games. “I mean, they smashed us,” James told reporters. “Two straight home games, got off to awful starts. They came in and were much better than us in these two games. It’s just that simple.” Spurs veteran Tim Duncan expects a fierce effort from the Heat as San Antonio attempts to avenge last season’s finals loss to the Heat. “We’re going to use our home court and we’re going to come with the same focus that we did in these last two games, and hopefully close it out at home,” Duncan told reporters.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened at -5 before moving to -5.5 and now currently sit at -6. The total opened at 197 before being bet down to 195.5.

INJURY REPORT: N/A

ABOUT THE HEAT: James is averaging 27.5 points in the series and is very much aware that no team has ever recovered from a 3-1 deficit to win the NBA Finals. He asserts that the players only have themselves to blame for the hole Miami finds itself in but doesn’t want to look past Sunday and ponder the historical aspect. “It’s never been done before but we’re still a confident bunch, even though our heads are lowered down right now,” James told reporters. “Of course, being down 3-1 and losing two straight games at home, that’s just human nature. But we’ve still got to go out and play on Sunday.”

ABOUT THE SPURS: Small forward Kawhi Leonard produced back-to-back stellar efforts in Miami – averaging 24.5 points and nine rebounds in the two games – but versatile Boris Diaw has also been a valuable performer since San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich inserted him into the starting lineup for Game 3. Diaw had a solid all-around game with eight points, nine rebounds and nine assists in Game 4 and is averaging 6.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.8 assists in the series. “He knows what’s going on most all the time,” Popovich told reporters. “At the offensive end he’s a passer. He understands mismatches. He knows time and score. At the defensive end, he knows when to help. He’s active. So he just helps the whole team have a better IQ, I think.”

TRENDS:

*Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 NBA Championship games.
*Spurs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 8-3 in Heat last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
*Under is 26-12 in the last 38 meetings.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-four percent of bettors are backing the Heat +6.

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NBA
Short Sheet

Sunday, June 15

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat, 8:00 ET

NBA Finals Game 5 Betting Trends

San Antonio Spurs
25-12 ATS against Southeast division opponents
22-10 ATS after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better
8-1 ATS in home games after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread
8-1 ATS in home games after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half

Miami Heat
9-0 ATS in road games after a game with 35 or less rebounds
12-4 ATS in road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread
12-3 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite
13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) off a home loss

NBA Finals Game 5 Over/Under Trends

San Antonio Spurs
13-4 OVER in home games after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more
21-10 OVER when the total is between 190 and 199.5
12-2 UNDER off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog

Miami Heat
13-5 OVER as a # 2 seed in the playoffs
13-5 OVER in all playoff games
11-2 UNDER in road games when playing with 2 days rest

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Game 5 - Heat at Spurs

June 14, 2014

San Antonio’s road to redemption is nearly complete as the Spurs are one victory from claiming the fifth title in franchise history. Following a pair of wins in South Florida where the Spurs shot lights out, the defending Western Conference champions return to the AT&T Center on Sunday night to host a Heat squad that may be nearing the end of their dynasty.

With the NBA Finals tied at 1-1, the Spurs connected on 75% of its shots from the floor in the first half of Game 3 and built a 25-point lead en route to a 111-92 triumph over the Heat as four-point underdogs. The Spurs didn’t skip a beat in Thursday’s Game 4, jumping out to a 55-36 halftime advantage as San Antonio rolled to a 107-86 victory to cash as five-point ‘dogs. Gregg Popovich’s team improved to 12-4 ATS the last 16 games in the postseason, including three straight wins and covers on the highway.

It seemed impossible for the Spurs to repeat their shooting effort from Game 3, but San Antonio wasn’t too far off in Game 4 by knocking down 57% of its attempts from the floor. Every game in this series San Antonio has relied on someone different to carry load, but Kawhi Leonard put up two of the best efforts in his career in Miami by scoring 29 points in Game 3 and a team-high 20 points and 14 rebounds in Game 4. Boris Diaw was inserted into the starting lineup for the first time in the series on Thursday and nearly put up a triple-double with eight points, nine rebounds, and nine assists.

The Heat’s run at a three-peat looks to be over barring a miracle comeback, as Miami isn’t receiving the balanced scoring and contributions that San Antonio is getting right now. Dwyane Wade captured Finals MVP when the Heat won their first title in 2006, but the Miami guard is coming off one of the worst playoff performances in his career by shooting just 3-of-13 from the floor for 10 points. LeBron James can carry the load only so much, putting up 19 points in the third quarter of Game 4 and scored a game-high 28 points. James is averaging 27 points per game and is probably the Most Valuable Player in this series, as the best thing for Miami is to hit the road after two poor performances at American Airlines Arena.

Miami’s 13-game winning streak in the playoffs off a loss came to a close on Thursday, but the Heat is back in the underdog role in Game 5. Erik Spoelstra’s club has won and covered just once in three tries as a ‘dog this postseason, while going 2-0 SU/ATS since 2012 when receiving points off a defeat in the playoffs (which includes a win Game 2 of this series against San Antonio).

VegasInsider.com’s Chris David says on Sunday night that Miami does have a tall mountain to climb, “Based on the first four games, especially the last two, it’s hard to make an argument for Miami in Game 5 even though the point-spread does appear to be a tad inflated. However, when San Antonio wins on the hardwood it wins at the betting counter, rather easily too. In their 15 postseason wins, the first three came by 5, 4 and 6 points to the Mavericks. In the last 12 victories, every game was decided by double digits.”

Rallying from a 3-1 deficit will be tough for the Heat, as David believes there is another approach to possibly making money with Miami, “There have been 31 teams who have trailed 3-1 in the NBA Finals and amongst them, only 15 have managed to force a Game 6 but there is a caveat for bettors. Nine of those teams were playing at home in Game 5 and now that the series is back to a 2-2-1-1-1 format, San Antonio is hosting the fifth encounter. I don’t believe the Heat are dead just yet and I feel the adjusted series price on the Heat at 9/1 odds is very generous, especially when you’re backing the best player in the world. Small risk, big reward in my opinion!”

The biggest issue with Miami so far in this series is not being able to keep up with San Antonio’s offense. David breaks down things from the totals perspective, “The ‘under’ cashed in Game 4 but one more 3-pointer by Miami at the end almost cost you. San Antonio’s hot-shooting has balanced out the slow pace by both clubs and the Heat’s offense has been, by their standards, poor. I believe the best look on Sunday will be the ‘under’ in Miami’s team total, which is hovering around 95 points. The most they scored in this series is 96 and if you believe the Heat can win, it will have to be with their defense.”

Leonard is currently the favorite to claim the MVP, as oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag have made the former San Diego State standout an overwhelming 5/12 (Bet $100 to win $41) favorite to win the NBA Finals Most Valuable Player. David says this award though is up for grabs, depending on what happens on Sunday, “Leonard has been great the last two games but unless he blows up again in Game 5, I believe this award will go to Tim Duncan, who is a media favorite. Bettors can get down on a solid 8/5 (Bet $100 to win $160) price for Duncan. And if you believe the Heat can rally and win a couple more games, James at 10/1 odds looks very appealing.”

Sportsbook.ag MVP Odds
Kawhi Leonard, Spurs (5/12)
Tim Duncan, Spurs (8/5)
Tony Parker, Spurs (5/1)
LeBron James, Heat (10/1)
Boris Diaw, Spurs (20/1)
Manu Ginobili, Spurs (50/1)
Danny Green, Spurs (75/1)
Dwyane Wade, Heat (100/1)
Chris Bosh, Heat (150/1)

The Spurs are currently listed as six-point favorites on Sunday night, while the total is set at 195 ½. Game 5 tips off at 8:00 PM EST and can be seen on ABC.

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Heat try to stay alive

June 14, 2014


Miami (67-34) at San Antonio (77-27)

NBA Finals
Game 5 – San Antonio leads series 3-1
Tip-off: Sunday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: San Antonio -6, Total: 195

The NBA Finals head back to Texas on Sunday as the Spurs look to close out the series in five games and get a revenge victory over the Heat after last year’s upsetting loss.

This series has been absolutely dominated by San Antonio, which is coming off yet another big win in Game 4. The club breezed to victory by a score of 107-86 as five-point underdogs in Miami while shooting an incredible 57% from the field; marking the third time in this series that the team has shot that well. As usual, the Spurs were getting great shots with tremendous ball movement, finishing with 25 assists in the game while absolutely dominating the boards as they outrebounded the Heat 44-27. Miami has actually had a few great shooting performances of their own in this series, hitting better than 51% of its field goals in both Games 2 & 3, but has just seemed outmatched, as LeBron James is the only player on the team with consistent numbers throughout the NBA Finals.

Going back on the road does not bode well for the Heat either as they are just 27-23 SU (24-24 ATS) in away games over the entire season. Meanwhile, San Antonio probably feels like it has a lock on this series since the club is an incredible 42-11 SU (28-25 ATS) when playing at home while going 10-2 SU (8-4 ATS) there in the playoffs.

These two clubs have obviously had a storied matchup over the past few seasons against each other and Miami holds a slight 9-7 SU (7-9 ATS) edge when facing the Spurs over the past three seasons. In that time, San Antonio is 4-3 (SU and ATS) in its home games.

Some trends that bettors may want to take notice of is that the Heat are 9-0 ATS in road games after a game with 35 or fewer rebounds over the past two seasons while the Spurs are 22-10 ATS (69%) in the past two seasons after a game where they made at least 55% FG.

Fatigue will likely be the only type of concern that needs to be watched in this contest, as neither side is nursing any significant injuries for this important game.

The Heat have seen their scoring output drop in the playoffs (97.8 PPG) while they have put up just 92.8 PPG in the NBA Finals through four games. Their defense has also been much worse in this series as they are allowing the Spurs to drop 106.0 PPG on them, which is much greater than the 95.1 PPG (48% FG) allowed over the entire postseason.

SF LeBron James (27.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 3.8 APG, 2.5 SPG in series) scored a team-high 28 points in Thursday’s loss while failing to record a steal for the first time in six games. He has made 60% of his shots in the NBA Finals while also hitting an incredible 11-of-18 threes.

SG Dwyane Wade (16.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.0 SPG in series) played very poorly in Game 4, shooting just 3-for-13 from the field with 10 points while adding four assists and four steals. The game was his worst shooting performance of the postseason, and he has also really struggled with ball security in this series as he has turned it over 3.8 times per game.

C Chris Bosh (14.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG in finals) averaged 18.0 PPG in the two games on the road in this series but netted just 10.5 PPG in the two home contests while grabbing just seven total rebounds. He has also been non-existent on the defense side of the ball with just one block in the series after averaging 1.3 BPG in the playoff games before the finals.

SG Ray Allen (11.0 PPG in series) has made 8-of-19 (42%) threes in this series but has scored double-digit points just twice.

The Spurs have been on an absolute tear through these playoffs, hitting 49% of their shots while averaging 106.5 PPG. Their defense has been great as well, giving up just 97.5 PPG (45% FG) to their opponents.

PF Tim Duncan (15.8 PPG, 10.5 RPG in series) had 10 points and 11 boards in Thursday’s victory and now has three double-doubles in the first four games of the NBA Finals. He was tremendous in the first two contests of this series when playing at home, averaging 19.5 PPG and 12.5 RPG.

PG Tony Parker (18.5 PPG, 5.3 APG, 1.0 SPG in finals) had 19 points on 8-of-15 shooting in Game 4 while recording a series-low two assists. He’s been amazingly consistent over these four games and has actually shot 8-for-15 from the field in three games against the Heat so far while making just 13-of-18 from the charity stripe in the series.

SF Kawhi Leonard (16.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.3 SPG in finals) was the difference maker in the two games at Miami, leading the team in scoring in both wins while averaging 24.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.5 BPG and 2.5 SPG. He has done well shooting from all areas of the floor, making 23-of-39 (59%) shots overall and 8-of-15 from behind the arc.

SG Manu Ginobili (13.3 PPG, 4.5 APG, 1.3 SPG in finals) had only seven points in Thursday’s victory, but was great in the two games at home (17.5 PPG, 7.5 APG) to start this series.

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Role players have the Spurs rolling

June 14, 2014



SAN ANTONIO (AP) - If the polling for NBA Finals MVP was being done before Game 5, no one from the star San Antonio trio of Tony Parker, Tim Duncan or Manu Ginobili would have led the balloting.

That would sound like a good sign for the Miami Heat.

It's not - not with the way Kawhi Leonard and Boris Diaw are playing for the Spurs.

They are role players in name only. Leonard has led the scoring charge in the last two games and Diaw has more assists than any other player in the series. They're a big reason why the Spurs can wrap up a championship on Sunday night, when they take a 3-1 series lead into Game 5 of the finals.

Leonard averaged 24.5 points on 68 percent shooting in Games 3 and 4. And in the Spurs' three wins, they've outscored Miami by 65 points with Diaw on the floor.

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Sunday, June 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:00 PM ET Miami +5.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

San Antonio - Over 196 500 TRIPLE PLAY