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Monday's Trends and Indexes - 4/14 (MLB, NBA, NHL, Misc.)

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  • #16
    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Monday, April 14


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    BOSTON (25 - 55) at PHILADELPHIA (17 - 63) - 4/14/2014, 7:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 10-7 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 9-8 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
    11 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MIAMI (54 - 26) at WASHINGTON (42 - 38) - 4/14/2014, 7:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WASHINGTON is 5-5 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
    MIAMI is 6-4 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MILWAUKEE (15 - 65) at TORONTO (47 - 33) - 4/14/2014, 7:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MILWAUKEE is 6-3 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    MILWAUKEE is 6-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CHARLOTTE (41 - 39) at ATLANTA (37 - 43) - 4/14/2014, 7:35 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ATLANTA is 9-2 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
    ATLANTA is 11-0 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
    9 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    OKLAHOMA CITY (58 - 22) at NEW ORLEANS (32 - 48) - 4/14/2014, 8:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-3 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SAN ANTONIO (62 - 18) at HOUSTON (53 - 27) - 4/14/2014, 8:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HOUSTON is 7-4 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
    HOUSTON is 6-5 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
    7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    ORLANDO (23 - 57) at CHICAGO (47 - 33) - 4/14/2014, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ORLANDO is 34-43 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games this season.
    ORLANDO is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in road games this season.
    ORLANDO is 47-61 ATS (-20.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 90-64 ATS (+19.6 Units) in home games when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.
    CHICAGO is 38-52 ATS (-19.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 34-52 ATS (-23.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ORLANDO is 5-3 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    CHICAGO is 7-2 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LA LAKERS (25 - 55) at UTAH (24 - 56) - 4/14/2014, 9:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA LAKERS are 72-90 ATS (-27.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    LA LAKERS are 13-22 ATS (-11.2 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
    LA LAKERS are 48-71 ATS (-30.1 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    LA LAKERS are 48-67 ATS (-25.7 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    UTAH is 111-82 ATS (+20.8 Units) in home games after a division game since 1996.
    LA LAKERS are 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
    LA LAKERS are 92-64 ATS (+21.6 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
    UTAH is 33-43 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all games this season.
    UTAH is 11-20 ATS (-11.0 Units) second half of the season this season.
    UTAH is 13-22 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
    UTAH is 17-30 ATS (-16.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
    UTAH is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    UTAH is 5-5 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
    UTAH is 6-4 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MEMPHIS (48 - 32) at PHOENIX (47 - 33) - 4/14/2014, 10:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PHOENIX is 51-28 ATS (+20.2 Units) in all games this season.
    PHOENIX is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
    PHOENIX is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    MEMPHIS is 93-78 ATS (+7.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    MEMPHIS is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
    MEMPHIS is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    MEMPHIS is 54-40 ATS (+10.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MEMPHIS is 5-4 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
    MEMPHIS is 6-4 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MINNESOTA (40 - 40) at GOLDEN STATE (49 - 31) - 4/14/2014, 10:35 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GOLDEN STATE is 6-3 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    GOLDEN STATE is 7-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Comment


    • #17
      NBA
      Dunkel


      Memphis at Phoenix
      The Grizzlies come into their contest with the Suns tonight carrying a 4-1 ATS record in the last 5 meetings between the two teams. Memphis is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Grizzlies favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

      MONDAY, APRIL 14

      Game 501-502: Boston at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)

      Dunkel Ratings: Boston 113.029; Philadelphia 116.482
      Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 206
      Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 3 1/2; 212
      Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3 1/2); Under

      Game 503-504: Miami at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Miami 123.848; Washington 120.659
      Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 3; 199
      Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 3 1/2; 191 1/2
      Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3 1/2); Over

      Game 505-506: Milwaukee at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 108.987; Toronto 124.806
      Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 16; 209
      Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 11; 204
      Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-11); Over

      Game 507-508: Charlotte at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 115.716; Atlanta 116.502
      Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 203 1/2
      Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 3 1/2; 198
      Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3 1/2); Over

      Game 509-510: Oklahoma City at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 115.489; New Orleans 114.212
      Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1 1/2; 200 1/2
      Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 203 1/2
      Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+7 1/2); Under

      Game 511-512: San Antonio at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 122.857; Houston 127.333
      Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 4 1/2; 209 1/2
      Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 6; 212
      Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+6); Under

      Game 513-514: Orlando at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 112.419; Chicago 130.517
      Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 18; 190
      Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 12; 184
      Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-12); Over

      Game 515-516: LA Lakers at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 102.644; Utah 116.481
      Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 14; 208
      Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 5 1/2; 211 1/2
      Dunkel Pick: Utah (-5 1/2); Under

      Game 517-518: Memphis at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 126.135; Phoenix 125.173
      Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 1; 204 1/2
      Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3 1/2; 196 1/2
      Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+3 1/2); Over

      Game 519-520: Minnesota at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 119.508; Golden State 123.200
      Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 3 1/2; 205
      Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 7 1/2; 208
      Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+7 1/2); Under

      Comment


      • #18
        NBA
        Short Sheet

        Monday, April 14


        Atlanta at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
        Santana: ATLANTA 11-1 off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog
        Hernandez: PHILADELPHIA 11-22 after 2 or more consecutive wins

        Washington at Miami, 7:10 ET
        Zimmermann: 39-16 TSR when the total is 7 to 8.5
        Hand: MIAMI 73-126 after a loss

        Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 7:10 ET
        Rodriguez: PITTSBURGH 17-7 after 6 or more consecutive road games
        Bailey: CINCINNATI 19-38 in home games after a win by 8 runs or more

        St Louis at Milwaukee, 8:10 ET
        Lynn: ST LOUIS 18-31 in road games after a win
        Garza: MILWAUKEE 10-2 in all games

        NY Mets at Arizona, 9:40 ET
        Wheeler: NY METS 49-23 OVER as a road underdog of +100 to +150
        Collmenter: ARIZONA 9-1 OVER after a loss

        Colorado at San Diego, 10:10 ET
        Lyles: COLORADO 24-54 as a road underdog
        Stults: 14-7 TSR when the total is 7 or less

        Tampa Bay at Baltimore, 7:05 ET
        Archer: TAMPA BAY 5-16 after a loss by 6 runs or more
        Chen: 18-11 TSR as an underdog

        Seattle at Texas, 8:05 ET
        Elias: n/a
        Lewis: n/a

        Oakland at LA Angels, 10:05 ET
        Chavez: OAKLAND 122-79 after a win
        Santiago: LA ANGELS 6-14 in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games

        Comment


        • #19
          MLB

          Monday, April 14


          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Monday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet
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          Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles (-101, 7.5)

          Cold pitching stat: Orioles starter Wei-Yin Chen has failed to get out of the sixth inning in two starts so far in the 2014 season.

          Hot batting stat: Former Ray Delmon Young has been on fire for Baltimore to start the year, batting 10-for-22 in the last five games.

          Weather: Mostly cloudy with a high in the 70's.

          Key betting stat: Tampa are on a four game winning streak against Baltimore and are 4-1 in the last five games on the road to the O's.


          Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (-129, 9)

          Cold pitching stat: Rangers starter Colby Lewis will be making his first big league start since 2012. He will be facing rookie Roenis Elias who made the jump from AA to Seattle this spring.

          Cold batting stat: Mariners 1B Justin Smoak hasn't had a hit in a staggering 13 at bats, compiling a woeful seven strikeouts at the plate.

          Weather: 24 MPH NW winds should become a factor should the Texas wind keep blowing throughout the day.

          Key betting stat: Over is 3-1-1 in the last five Seattle-Texas meetings.


          Oakland A's at Los Angeles Angels (105, 8)

          Hot pitching stat: Oakland's Jesse Chavez had the best start of his career in his last outing, setting a career high for K's with nine.

          Cold batting stat: A's star Coco Crisp may miss out on today's contest after tweaking his hamstring on the weekend.

          Weather: High of 83 degrees in sunny California.

          Key betting stat: Angels are 4-1 against righties over their last five games.


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          Comment


          • #20
            MLB

            Monday, April 14


            ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Monday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet
            ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

            Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (110, 8)

            Hot pitching stat: Newly acquired Braves pitcher Ervin Santana showed great command in his first start for Atlanta, setting a MLB record by throwing 20 straight strikes to open the game.

            Hot batting stat: Chase Utley currently leads the majors with a .500 batting average.

            Weather: Cloudy with SW winds going as high as 17 MPH.

            Key betting stat: Atlanta have opened the season by going 4-1 in their last five road games.


            Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (-121, 7.5)

            Cold pitching stats: Homer Bailey faced the Cardinals in his opening two starts of the season, blowing Reds leads in both outings.

            Cold fielding stat: Pittsburgh have committed multiple errors in three of four games as the Pirates have developed some bad habits/luck as of late in the field.

            Weather: 80% precipitation puts this game at risk of wet, rainy weather for now.

            Key betting stat: Cincinnati have lost all four of their opening series to start the season, dropping two out of three games in all four heading into Monday's series opener with the Buccos.


            Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (127, 7.5)

            Cold pitching stat: Washington's Jordan Zimmerman will start against the Marlins yet again after failing to get out of the second inning in his last start, also against Miami where he allowed five runs on seven hits. Washington came back to win despite Zimmerman's awful start.

            Hot batting stat: Giancarlo Stanton has three home runs on Zimmerman in 19 career at bats despite having just four hits on the Nationals starter to his name.

            Weather: Overcast with weather in the low 70's.

            Key betting stat: Both Miami and Washington are ice cold coming into Monday. Washington has a three game losing skid while things are much worse for the Marlins who have seven straight defeats.


            St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (-113, 7.5)

            Hot pitching stat: Matt Garza will look to continue his strong start to the season for the Brewers as the former highly touted pitching prospect already has a near no-hitter to his name as well as a respectable six inning outing in his last start against the Phillies.

            Hot batting stat: Brewers slugger Ryan Braun is 4-for-10 with a home run lifetime against Cardinals starter Lance Lynn.

            Weather: Cold and cloudy with a temp. below 40 and winds of 21 MPH to the northwest.

            Key betting stat: Despite their hot start, the Brewers will face a stern test in their NL Central rivals. The Cardinals are 8-2 in their last ten attempts against the Brewers at Miller Park.


            New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks (-128, 9)

            Cold pitching stat: Arizona looks to figure out the backend of their rotation by testing out unproven Josh Collmenter who hasn't started a game since 2012.

            Hot batting stat: The Mets have allowed 21 home runs this season, something that bodes well for the Diamondbacks bats this series.

            Weather: Sunny and warm with weather topping the 70's.

            Key betting stat: Over is 6-1 in the last seven Mets-Diamondbacks contests.


            Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres (-121, 7.5)

            Hot pitching stat: Surprise end of the rotation starter Jordan Lyles earned his stay in the Show for the Rockies in his last start, holding the White Sox to just one run and five hits in six plus innings of work.

            Hot batting stat: Colorado's Charlie Blackmon has one of the best batting statlines going into mid-April with a .488 average and nine RBI's.

            Weather: Highs nearing 80 are expected for tonight's night game.

            Key betting stat: Four straight games between the two teams have went Under, including six of the last seven played in San Diego and away from the high altitudes of Coors Field.


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            Comment


            • #21
              MLB

              Monday, April 14


              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              MLB Weekend Series - Five Key Takeaways
              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              It's time to continue our look at the 2014 MLB season from Point Blank range, as we break down the weekend series to find major edges that can keep you ahead of the game in the days and weeks ahead.

              Astros - Scott Feldman, “Believe it or not”


              Feldman’s performance at Texas on Friday was a great human interest story, working seven shutout innings two days after his father passed away. He deserves kudos. That performance lifted him to a most unlikely 2-0/0.44 for the 2014 season, statistical evidence that he has been as good as any pitcher in the sport so far. But he hasn’t. This has been a classic example of “Baseball Being Baseball”, and as such you need to adjust properly.

              To generate numbers that impressive, a pitcher ordinarily needs to be doing a lot of things right. They are not easy to find with Feldman. He has not commanded the strike zone, missing with 38.3 percent of all pitches. He sports a downright awful ratio of eight W’s and five HBP vs. only seven K’s. But two magic outliers have built his bottom line – of the 21 runners he has put on base, only one scored, and opponents have a microscopic .119 hit rate on balls in play.

              Consider that latter number through this comparison – all other balls in play vs. the Houston defense have turned into hits at a .321 clip, which would rate #27 in the Majors. That shows just how much good fortune Feldman has been receiving from baseball’s geometry. He is who he is, a competent journeyman who could end up in a contender’s uniform by mid-summer, but not someone that can maintain this level.


              Royals - Does the Offense have an upside

              Minnesota’s struggling pitching staff sent Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Gibson and Kevin Correia to the mound against Kansas City this weekend, with that trio sporting a 6.41 ERA and 1.76 WHIP entering the series. In sweeping the Royals, they worked to tunes of 2.11 and 1.03 in the same categories, and it could have been even better – a misplayed bunt by Trevor Plouffe in the 8th inning would have turned Correia’s earned run count from three to one, had the official scorer ruled it differently. Meanwhile a mediocre Twins bullpen did not allow a run over 5 2/3 frames.

              The end result was a sweep that dropped Kansas City to the bottom of the AL Central, despite the season beginning with such optimism. It is easy to see where the problem is. Again. In 2013 the pitching and defense were good enough to make the playoffs – a 3.45 ERA ranked 6th in the Major Leagues, and the defense was #8 on the Park-Adjusted ratings. But the Royals were #18 in runs and #24 in total bases. So far this season the pitching has actually improved a notch to 3.38, while the defense checks in at #5. Yet they have gone backwards in the standings. The offense brings up the bottom of the MLB tables in runs and total bases, with the alarming total of a lone home run through 356 at-bats. And while the opposing starters have included names like Verlander, Scherzer and Sale, as a group they have worked to a 4.40 tune, with a 1.36 WHIP, against all other opponents. In other words, close to average.

              Once upon a time there was optimism fueled by home-grown prospects Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. Gordon has turned out to be good, not great; Butler’s slugging percentage fell of by nearly 100 points in 2013, and you need a magnifying lens to find the current rate; Moustakas has been arguably the worst everyday player in the Majors this season; while Hosmer still has time on his side at 24. Those four bat at key offensive positions in the lineup, and the gap between their production, and what a contender needs from those spots, may be too wide for pitching and defense to make up for.


              Reds - Billy Hamilton, “You can’t steal first base”

              The Reds really want Hamilton to succeed – his speed is so dynamic in the way that he can alter games on the base-paths and in CF. Those 333 stolen bases across his first three Minor League seasons is something that may never be seen again. But stealing requires being on base, of course, and that is the problem. For as good as those counts were, he actually had more strikeouts than steals in the Minors – 348. That was a warning sign, and yet Cincinnati broke spring with him as the lead-off hitter, despite his ominous .256 average and .308 on-base at AAA Louisville LY. It isn’t working. And it isn’t working at a truly awful level.

              It is one thing to struggle, and Hamilton certainly has – a dismal .195 on-base, with 50 percent more K’s than hits, and only two walks. But that becomes magnified when you are struggling at the key leadoff spot. How bad has it been? Hamilton has been the No. 1 hitter in the lineup in eight home games in his career. In three of those games the Reds lost 1-0. That already matches the number of 1-0 defeats they had suffered in their 11+ seasons at the Great American Ballpark, and nearly 900 games.

              Now the question becomes how long Cincinnati management waits before sending him down for a second tour at AAA. There is an old baseball axiom that “You don’t learn to hit in The Show”, and they are running the risk of ruining his confidence. It is awfully hard to draw walks in the Majors when pitchers know that you can’t hit strikes. It is also awfully hard to generate offense with that little production at the top; having already lost three games in which they allowed two runs or less, they simply can not afford to let too many get away.


              Nationals - Defensive adjustments:

              When Washington took the field at Atlanta on Sunday, there were only three Nationals playing the position they were projected to back in the spring – Jayson Worth in RF, Ian Desmond at SS, and Adam LaRoche at 1B. So naturally there is the usual handicapper’s task of making adjustments, and plugging other players and their abilities and characteristics into those spots. But this time it may be a bit more of a challenge – several players are now at a position that might not be fully comfortable with.

              Danny Espinosa replaces Ryan Zimmerman in the lineup. Naturally that is a big offensive drop, but there is also a glove issue, with Anthony Rendon sliding over from 2B to 3B. Rendon is showing his ability to handle MLB pitching so far, but can he handle 3B? Because of his fast trajectory to the Majors, Rendon skipped AAA, and Sunday was only his 79th game as a professional at the position. The Nats also chose to bat him at leadoff, which adds an additional mental pressure.

              In the OF it may not seem like a big offensive drop in going from Denard Spann to what will likely be a Kevin Frandsen/Nate McLouth platoon, assuming that McLouth’s knee is OK. But that platoon will be in LF, with Bryce Harper moving over to CF. There is a major defensive gap between Spann and Harper in that key spot, while Frandsen did not play in the OF at all with the Phillies the last two seasons, and McLouth did not take up LF full-time until the Orioles put him there in 2012. As for catcher, it is a case of trying to patch with Jose Lobaton and Sandy Leon until Wilson Ramos returns.

              This defense bears watching, especially with Desmond’s ugly glove start to the season (five errors), and there should be a quick focus on the range charts. But if there is a sliver lining, it is the fact that the Washington pitching staff leads the Majors by a wide margin in Strikeout rate, which helps to keep the ball out of play. In the immediate future, they may need to.


              Diamondbacks - Brandon McCarthy “Takes one for the Team”

              The next time McCarthy takes the mound the pitching forms will show an 0-2/7.78, and with the Diamondbacks behind him also playing poorly, the oddsmakers may have to be generous to find takers. You may want to be among them.

              McCarthy is doing a lot of things right. His upper-end velocity is up a full two mph, and he has only issued three walks over 19 2/3 frames, building on a command that has led to one free pass or none 18 times over 25 starts since coming to Arizona. His ground ball rate has been phenomenal, with 35 outs recorded vs. only three in the air. In his past two starts, neither the Dodgers nor the Rockies managed a fly-ball out, while 26 were retired on the ground. Which leads to part of the conundrum – those teams did manage four HR’s. Four HR’s without a fly-out is a distribution we will not see often. Giving up homers is obviously not good, but when those are the only fly balls, it calls for a different interpretation.

              Let’s take it a step further. McCarthy’s box vs. the Dodgers on Friday will show six runs on 10 hits over seven IP. That is bad, but the last two runs, and three hits, never should have happened. He actually worked a decent seven frames, retiring 11 batters in a row in one stretch. But the Arizona bullpen was gassed, with Kirk Gibson using six relievers to throw 103 pitches at San Francisco the previous evening. So McCarthy was sent back out for the 8th to “Take One for the Team”, and face the heart of the Dodger order. That sequence cost his early-season ERA nearly a full run, and raised his WHIP from 1.17 to 1.32, but the shrewd handicapper might be able to take advantage of those misleading counts going forward.


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              Comment


              • #22
                NBA
                Short Sheet

                Monday, April 14


                Boston at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
                Boston: 14-6 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent
                Philadelphia: 3-12 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less

                Miami at Washington, 7:05 ET
                Miami: 13-2 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4
                Washington: 6-14 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins

                Milwaukee at Toronto, 7:05 ET
                Milwaukee: 22-43 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent
                Toronto: 11-1 ATS after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games

                Charlotte at Atlanta, 7:35 ET
                Charlotte: 8-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite
                Atlanta: 0-8 ATS in home games off a home win against a division rival

                Oklahoma City at New Orleans, 8:05 ET
                Oklahoma City: 48-27 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3
                New Orleans: 19-29 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent

                San Antonio at Houston, 8:05 ET
                San Antonio: 12-1 ATS after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots
                Houston: HOUSTON is 5-13 ATS after 2 games where opponent was called for 25 or more fouls

                Orlando at Chicago, 8:05 ET
                Orlando: 12-23 ATS as a road underdog
                Chicago: 14-6 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games

                LA Lakers at Utah, 9:05 ET
                LA Lakers: 48-71 ATS in road games
                Utah: 53-31 ATS in home games off a loss against a division rival

                Memphis at Phoenix, 10:05 ET
                Memphis: 4-12 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite
                Phoenix: 22-10 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses

                Minnesota at Golden State, 10:35 ET
                Minnesota: 17-40 ATS off a close road loss of 3 points or less
                Golden State: 28-13 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less

                Comment


                • #23
                  *
                  904 Marlins
                  907 Cards
                  517 Grizzlies +3.5

                  Comment

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