Services Assassination Thread

[frankb03]

Buzz

Not at all. I found your post very insightful! Thanks!

[savage1]

Frank-trends are important but not everything.
I still think of Marc Lawrence's big GOY in college football in 2002 when he gave out UCLA which was playing afwul against USC, which was playing great;his pick was based on past trends between the two teams.
If you recall, USC won game by about 50 points. Enough said.

[frankb03]

I am a big believer in team trends and situation systems but they aren't my only deciding factor when I make a play.

Unlike Marc, when I'm capping a game I try to find trends or systems that work against my play. Of course, I can always find something but I have to way its merit. As an example tonights Laker/Hawks game. All the trends are against a play on the Hawks. However, I find it very difficult to make a play on a home favorite off a 46 point home victory vs. a team off a 25 point road loss. Statistically it a huge system that favors the Hawks.

[savage1]

I assume you mean the Cavs.

[frankb03]

Yeah! I mean Cavs. The Hawks were who got blown out by 46. My bad!

[BiloxiUMreb]

Now we're talkin'

Great posts guys. In particular, Buzz and his psychology theory and MMM (You saavy sweetie) about we humans think something's better if we pay for it! Buzz is so right on, there really isn't any need for discussion. Every experienced bettor knows full well that in the NFL, in particular, any team is capable of beating any other STRAIGHT UP in the right circumstances, i.e., NO beating TB TWICE in 2002, Detroit pounding St. Louis this year, and on and on. In the pros I believe the following are the key factors to handicapping a game:

SCHEDULE SITUATION- Sandwiches, look aheads, short weeks, etc. (30%)

REAL TEAM PSYCHOLOGY- Which team is more ready to play? IN the NFL, this is a business and no matter how much a player (team) tries to convince itself that its pumped up and ready to play, THEY (just like anybody else) CAN"T FOOL THEMSELVES. Sure lip service is always given ("This Arizona ballclub has had some tough breaks, but they've got the athletes to beat us if we don't bring our "A" game"). Inside, though, the real feelings are "These guys really suck. They haven't won on the road since 1977, we have better athletes at every position, and there is just no way we should get beat". Performance level is mostly influenced by what the sub-consious thinks, not what the lips are made to say. In our own jobs, we have days where the workload is really easy and we just kind of sleepwalk through it SIMPLY because we know full effort is not required. NFL players are working on Sundays....They aren't alot different from us. (30%)

GAME PLANNING- Which staff better prepares to exploit the other guys weaknesses. IMO, nobody does this better than Bill B at NE.(30%)

TRENDS AND OTHER- A good friend of mine calls trends "yesterday's losers". They are of some benefit, but, at least in my way of thinking they are corroborative only. I will NEVER play a game based on a trend. Trends might reinforce the opinion I've arrived at using fundamental and psychological analysis, or they might cause me to back down some on a play, but they will never CAUSE me to make a play of any kind. (10%)

These are just my thoughts for what they're worth.

PS This probably should be posted on another thread, but this one seems to have the most sophisticated participants and I thought it would generate more useful dialogue posted here...

[MemphisMafia]

BiloxiUMreb

A very insightful post into the hows and whys we can or cannot make a selection on todays games . I tend to agree with everything you posted and a perfect example of your analysis was last nites Syracuse / Mizzu game , as we where led to believe that revenge factors , home team comes alive , ATS trends that strongly favored the Tigers , and the telling straw was the all-powerful books made them a favorite .

All that smoke was quickly blown from the picture within minutes of tip-off and what we where left with was a " National Champ " , very well coached with a ton of talent returning key players with lots of moxie facing a team that has more skeletons in the closet than Sybil .

One could believe several things here , either they ( odds-makers ) where deliberately trying to mask the outcome " or " they are human and called the goat the wrong color ( I favor the latter ). I discovered a few weeks back all I need to know about this Mizzu team and traps been on thier case like a bloodhound also with such statements as all the Pepto Bismal has disappeared from the towns shelves months ago . It plays directly into the psychology of the games make-up as eluded to by many . Services had to be bumming about the outcome because several where on it and it does not bode well for thier reputation to consider the human-side of these match-ups .

Again a fine job by all here and lets keep learning from eachother because we are all we got !


G.L.

***MMM***

:cool: :cool: :cool:

[shorty3830]

mmm

same with you, i took missouri once against iowa state in a situation i loved them in, and that will be it for at least another month

saw a lot of respected people on them last night

Biloxi, i like your breakdown of handicapping the pros , it is something i have never been able to do quite well, and that is because my main 2 factors which go into what i play in the colleges are ::1)line value............2)emotions

i admit, it is hard for the average, or even somewhat good gambler to recognize line value all the time in a sport like college basketball..........with 370+ teams on the board though, the likelihodd of getting line value is greatly increased from a pro sport where there is never more than 1 or 2 points of it......not to mention, sometime 'the man' understands the public will read way to much in to a recent win or loss and raise or drop a line sometimes 3-5 points, giving tremendous line value

as far as emotions, there is nothing better than a game where you are almost positive (never can be positive) one team will play hard and the other won't, or one team will play hard and theother sucks.........i will come up with my 5* and 10* plays usually if both factors are at work

i guess the purpose of this long post is to at least explain what goes into what i do..........a typical lying service will say they have computers, inside information, sound 50-0 system or something to explain why they like a game and that should not be enough.........i hope and believe that most of the people here at bettorschat that have played my plays have read the posts themselves and through their own knowledge , made an educated decision to do so

lets keep winning
b

[frankb03]

Some great insight from some experienced players. Great job!

Vegas' job is to balance the action. They know last night game was on ESPN. They also know the general public likes to bet favorites. Novice bettors are going to play the home favorite probably 90%. Last nights line was not a 'trap'. Last nights line was derived by Vegas fully knowing they'd get a boat load of action on the televised home team.

I don't know shit about college BB. When I saw the line move from -4.5 to -7 and many services on Mizz I jumped on Syracuse. Good teams getting that many points are often a good play.

[BiloxiUMreb]

The MAN'S mission

Always been a fascination of mine and even though all the participants here understand it, I'm compelled from time to time to remind myself of just what the linesmaker's job is. First, he is not a handicapper...What the final outcome of the game turns out to be is completely irrelavent to the oddsmaker. He is a psychologist in his own unique way. His job is to evaluate, not the realtive strengths of the games participants, but instead to evaluate the betting public's own psychology. He is not a gambler....he hates risk. His assignment is as simple as it gets. At what number can I set this game to attract equal play on both sides. THE ONLY WAY HE CAN DO THIS SUCCESSFULLY is to handicap, not the teams, BUT US!!! He must take the same info that we (and the services) all have at our fingertips and ANALYZE AND CORRECTLY PREDICT what WE will do with that data. Great case in point was last night Cuze/MO. He obviously had the "wrong" team favored...But from whose perspective. From ours, yeah...But from his he was almost perfect...Vegas action had about 51% of the action on the CUZE. In the final analysis, HE DID HIS JOB (even with the "wrong" team favored) ALMOST PERFECTLY. The books netted right at 5% of all the action on that game. In this case, had he made the game, say a pick, surely much more of the action would've gone to MO which on the surface looks like it would've been a good thing for the man....Vegas books would've netted probably 10-15% of the total action. BUT WAIT...if the play gets way out of balance, the books are gambling AND THEY DON"T WANT TO DO THAT. To the extent that the betting goes such that the books stand to net much more than 5% of the action, THEY COULD ALSO ACTUALLY LOSE REAL MONEY ON A GAME. They are not greedy...Don't have to be...5% of all action is a whole lotta money.

At the end of the day....we handicap the games and the MAN handicaps US....And that's the facts sports fans...

[BiloxiUMreb]

Repetitively Redundant

Sorry Frank...Didn't see your post before posting my last

[MemphisMafia]

Agreed :

And never let us lose sight of this fact !!!


G.L.

***MMM***

:cool: :cool: :cool:

[frankb03]

BiloxiUMreb

The MAN'S mission: what a great post!!!

I get a kick out of the statement "the line's a trap". Someone posted last night they weren't going to play Cuse because the line is a trap. Yes, Vegas is trying to entice the gamblers to play a certain team. Vegas knows about as much as we do regarding who's gonna win ATS. NOTHING!

Line's aren't traps. Players have been around long enough and have been burned too many times by a play that seemed too easy. I know its 20/20 hindsight but looking back is anyone really surprised that Syracuse ranked 17th at 11-1 beat a mediocre 6-5 team that lost at home to Belmont. Who the fuck is Belmont? Did gamblers play the 2003 Mizz team or the Mizz team's history?

[BiloxiUMreb]

Frank

Thanks, Frank. Nice to know that at least of some of what I post is enjoyed by some of the readers. Y'know, as you read posts on all the different threads its really easy to separate the experienced gamblers from the rookies. If we pound on it hard enough, maybe some of the newbies will actually take the opportunity to learn from those of us who were in their positions many, many years ago. It kills me, though, when an obviously inexperienced player tries to argue with some of the points we elder guys make. The main difference in us is that we speak from the brain, while they speak from the heart...GL

[Silence]

trends

trends not good to make play only to make play better or not as much ok

silence