Monday's Trends and Indexes - 3/10 (NBA, NCAAB, NHL, Misc.)

[Udog]

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, March 10

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DENVER (27 - 35) at CHARLOTTE (29 - 34) - 3/10/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 26-35 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all games this season.
DENVER is 143-191 ATS (-67.1 Units) when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.
DENVER is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
CHARLOTTE is 46-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) in home games in March games since 1996.
CHARLOTTE is 86-120 ATS (-46.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 37-57 ATS (-25.7 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 17-36 ATS (-22.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (33 - 29) at MIAMI (43 - 17) - 3/10/2014, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-4 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 5-4 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (15 - 47) at NEW YORK (24 - 40) - 3/10/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 22-40 ATS (-22.0 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 20-38 ATS (-21.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) second half of the season this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-23 ATS (-12.3 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
NEW YORK is 62-44 ATS (+13.6 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games in March games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 27-37 ATS (-13.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW YORK is 12-21 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 5-4 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 6-3 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (35 - 26) at BROOKLYN (31 - 30) - 3/10/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 112-146 ATS (-48.6 Units) in March games since 1996.
TORONTO is 37-23 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in road games this season.
TORONTO is 65-40 ATS (+21.0 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points since 1996.
TORONTO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.
BROOKLYN is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 6-4 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 6-5 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (26 - 35) at UTAH (22 - 41) - 3/10/2014, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-0 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-0 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ORLANDO (19 - 45) at MILWAUKEE (12 - 50) - 3/10/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 63-80 ATS (-25.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 11-20 ATS (-11.0 Units) in road games this season.
ORLANDO is 41-55 ATS (-19.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
ORLANDO is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 26-35 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 21-36 ATS (-18.6 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 18-32 ATS (-17.2 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in home games after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 66-94 ATS (-37.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 8-2 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 7-3 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHOENIX (36 - 26) at LA CLIPPERS (44 - 20) - 3/10/2014, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 37-27 ATS (+7.3 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 29-20 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
PHOENIX is 40-21 ATS (+16.9 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
PHOENIX is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in road games this season.
PHOENIX is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
PHOENIX is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
PHOENIX is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 152-210 ATS (-79.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 103-140 ATS (-51.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 5-5 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 5-5 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

NCAAB
Dunkel

St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga
The Bulldogs (26-6) play St. Mary's tonight in the West Coast Conference semifinals and catch the Gaels with an 0-7 ATS record in their last 7 games against teams with a winning SU record. Gonzaga is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-6). Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, MARCH 10

Game 515-516: Delaware vs. William & Mary (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 55.733; William & Mary 49.264
Dunkel Line: Delaware by 6 1/2; 156
Vegas Line: Delaware by 4 1/2; 153
Dunkel Pick: Delaware (-4 1/2); Over

Game 517-518: St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's 58.999; Gonzaga 67.720
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 9; 125
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 6; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-6); Under

Game 519-520: San Francisco vs. BYU (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 59.052; BYU 66.651
Dunkel Line: BYU by 7 1/2; 149
Vegas Line: BYU by 4 1/2; 154
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-4 1/2); Under

Game 521-522: Ball State at Ohio (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 45.732; Ohio 56.943
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 11
Vegas Line: Ohio by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+13 1/2)

Game 523-524: Kent State at Miami (OH) (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 49.953; Miami (OH) 56.081
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 6
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (-2 1/2)

Game 525-526: Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 46.418; Eastern Michigan 56.312
Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 10
Vegas Line: Eastern Michigan by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (+12 1/2)

Game 527-528: Bowling Green at Northern Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 51.790; Northern Illinois 51.599
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 3
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+3)

Game 529-530: Manhattan vs. Iona (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 58.155; Iona 60.708
Dunkel Line: Iona by 2 1/2; 160
Vegas Line: Pick; 156
Dunkel Pick: Iona; Over

Game 531-532: Denver vs. North Dakota State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 53.913; North Dakota State 62.212
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 8 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 5 1/2; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (-5 1/2); Over

Game 533-534: South Dakota State vs. IPFW (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 56.960; IPFW 55.462
Dunkel Line: South Dakota State by 1 1/2; 136
Vegas Line: South Dakota State by 4; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: IPFW (+4); Under

Game 535-536: Western Carolina vs. Wofford (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 50.057; Wofford 50.979
Dunkel Line: Wofford by 1; 144
Vegas Line: Wofford by 3; 131
Dunkel Pick: Western Carolina (+3); Over

Game 541-542: MD-Eastern Shore vs. Norfolk State (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: MD-Eastern Shore 36.474; Norfolk State 49.889
Dunkel Line: Norfolk State by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Norfolk State by 11
Dunkel Pick: Norfolk State (-11)

Game 543-544: South Carolina State vs. Savannah State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina State 38.624; Savannah State 43.692
Dunkel Line: Savannah State by 5
Vegas Line: Savannah State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina State (+7 1/2)

[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel

Denver at Charlotte
The Nuggets head to Charlotte tonight with a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games versus the Bobcats. Denver is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Bobcats favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Denver (+6). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, MARCH 10

Game 501-502: Denver at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 112.660; Charlotte 115.518
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 3; 213
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 6; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+6); Over

Game 503-504: Washington at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 121.694; Miami 126.430
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 5; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 7; 204
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+7); Under

Game 505-506: Philadelphia at New York (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 98.569; New York 121.254
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 22 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 15 1/2; 213
Dunkel Pick: New York (-15 1/2); Under

Game 507-508: Toronto at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 121.175; Brooklyn 126.4339
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 5; 187
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 2 1/2; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-2 1/2); Under

Game 509-510: Atlanta at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 112.006; Utah 113.680
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 1 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 203
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+2 1/2); Under

Game 511-512: Orlando at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 112.664; Milwaukee 116.881
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 4; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-1 1/2); Over

Game 513-514: Phoenix at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 118.914; LA Clippers 130.804
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 12; 231
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 10; 220
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-10); Over

[Udog]

NHL
Dunkel

Pittsburgh at Washington
The Penguins come into Washington tonight with a 6-0 record in their last 6 contests versus the Capitals. Pittsburgh is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-135). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, MARCH 10

Game 1-2: Pittsburgh at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.648; Washington 10.204
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-135); Over

Game 3-4: Nashville at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 10.124; Ottawa 11.556
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-150); Under

Game 5-6: Phoenix at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 10.541; Tampa Bay 12.176
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-145); Over

Game 7-8: Columbus at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.669; Dallas 10.572
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+115); Under

Game 9-10: Winnipeg at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 12.475; Colorado 11.322
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+145); Under

Game 11-12: Los Angeles at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 12.230; Calgary 10.943
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-150); Over

Game 13-14: Toronto at Anaheim (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 10.971; Anaheim 12.456
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-190); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-190); Over

Game 15-16: NY Islanders at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 10.505; Vancouver 9.412
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+155); Under

[Udog]

NBA

Monday, March 10


Underdogs have a solid showing Sunday

Underdogs had a solid day against the spread in NBA action Sunday.

It was the dogs' day, going 6-3 ATS in Sunday's games, hitting at a mark of almost 67 percent, the highlight of which was the Los Angeles Lakers 114-110 win over Oklahoma City as 12-point dogs.

Home dogs were an even more impressive 3-0 ATS.


Suns' guard Eric Bledsoe, doubtful for Monday's game

Bledsoe underwent arthroscopic surgery to repair meniscus cartilage in his right knee on January 9th. He has returned to practice but is not expected to play Monday against the Clippers.


Heat guard Dwyane Wade, doubtful Monday

Wade is expected to sit out Monday's game against the Wizards due to a scheduled day of rest.


Pacers lose fourth straight, fail to cover again

The Indiana Pacers continue to struggle. After last night's 105-94 road loss to the Dallas Mavericks the Pacers have now lost four games in a row straight up, but the skid for Pacers backers goes back much further.

Indiana has failed to cover the spread in seven consecutive games and are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games. They will try to get back on track Tuesday when they host the Boston Celtics.

[Udog]

Keselowski wins when Earnhardt runs out of gas

LAS VEGAS -- When Dale Earnhardt Jr. ran out of gas coming off turn two on the last lap of the Kobalt 400 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday, Brad Keselowski passed Earnhardt, took the lead and raced on to the win.

With the victory, Keselowski joined Earnhardt and Kevin Harvick in the win column early in the season, all but guaranteeing slots in the Chase for the Sprint Cup championship postseason.

Earnhardt was able to coast to a second-place finish. Paul Menard came in third, pole sitter Joey Logano took fourth, and Carl Edwards, who was on the same fuel-saving strategy as Earnhardt, rounded out the top five.

The field began cycling through green-flag pit stops with about 63 laps to go in the 267-lap race. Earnhardt and Edwards waited until later in the cycle, hoping they could get enough fuel to finish the race. The yellow flag waved for the final time just a few laps after the cycle completed, and almost all of the other drivers else pitted for a splash of fuel to make sure they could go the distance. Earnhardt and Edwards, though, stayed out.

When the race returned to green, Earnhardt drove out to a lead of more than two seconds over Edwards. With just over 20 laps to go, Keselowski passed Edwards for second and closed in on Earnhardt. As Keselowski closed, Earnhardt's plan to save fuel flew out the window and he had to pick up speed to fend off the charging Keselowski. As a result of having to pick up speed to remain up front in the closing laps, Earnhardt's fuel didn't hold out.

Keselowski was on somewhat of a different pit strategy than most of his competitors throughout the race. He stayed out during the first caution of the race on lap 17 to inherit the lead. Later, he fell out of the top 10 during another caution as several drivers took only two new tires, while he stayed on pit road long enough for four.

By lap 120, Keselowski worked his way up to fourth. As Keselowski continued to move forward, Harvick (who won last week's race), Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch showed the way up front.

The yellow flag waved again on lap 155. Again, Keselowski opted to stay out while everyone else pitted, regaining the lead. Harvick moved up to second when the race restarted but fell off the pace with 74 laps to go. He wound up spending time in the garage because of an issue with a left front wheel.

A few laps after Harvick's problems, Keselowski pitted under green after staying out during the previous caution. But a few laps later, everyone else also pitted under green, cycling Keselowski back into the lead.

Keselowski then built up a cushion of nearly 5.75 seconds, only to see the field bunched up by the fourth and final caution of the race with 47 laps to go. While he and others pitted for fuel, Earnhardt stayed out, hoping the fuel he had would carry him to the checkered flag.

Johnson wound up finishing sixth, unable to make his way back toward the front after his final pit stop. Ryan Newman was seventh, Kasey Kahne eighth, Jeff Gordon ninth, and Matt Kenseth rounded out the top 10

NOTES: With the win, Keselowski starts the season with three top-five finishes. ... Keselowski also won the NASCAR Nationwide Series race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Saturday. ... Earnhardt's second-place finish ties his worst finish so far this season, second a week ago at Phoenix International Raceway. ... Earnhardt has started a Sprint Cup season with three top-five finishes for the first time. ... Keselowski earned a Sprint Cup win at Las Vegas for the first time. ... The yellow flag waved four times, with all of the cautions being for debris.




Jimmie Johnson still the fave to win Sprint Cup series

Jimmie Johnson is still the favorite to take home the Sprint Cup series at 5/2. He currently sits 16 points behind the leader - Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Earnhardt Jr. is listed at 8/1 after his strong start to the season. He was less than a lap away from winning the Kobalt 400 before running out of gas and getting passed by Brad Keselowski, who is listed at 7/1. Keselowski sits just one point back of Earnhardt Jr.

Here is a complete list of odds courtesy the LVH Superbook:

JIMMIE JOHNSON 5/2
BRAD KESELOWSKI 7/1
KYLE BUSCH 8/1
MATT KENSETH 8/1
DALE EARNHARDT JR 8/1
KEVIN HARVICK 8/1
DENNY HAMLIN 10/1
JOEY LOGANO 12/1
KASEY KAHNE 15/1
JEFF GORDON 15/1
TONY STEWART 20/1
KURT BUSCH 20/1
CARL EDWARDS 20/1
CLINT BOWYER 30/1
RYAN NEWMAN 30/1
GREG BIFFLE 40/1
BRIAN VICKERS 100/1
JAMIE McMURRAY 100/1
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 100/1
MARTIN TRUEX JR 200/1
AUSTIN DILLON 200/1
PAUL MENARD 200/1
KYLE LARSON 200/1
MARCOS AMBROSE 500/1
DANICA PATRICK 1000/1
FIELD 100/1

[StarDust Bum]

MAC Betting Notes

March 9, 2014


MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE

March 10, 12-15 (Opening Round games at campus sites of higher seeds...Remaining games at Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH)

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: TOLEDO, BUFFALO, WESTERN MICHIGAN, AKRON

THE WAY WE SEE IT:

Like the Horizon League, and in hopes of ensuring a better chance to land an at-large bid, the MAC has re-arranged its postseason tournament where the division winners earn byes into the semis and the No. 3-4 seeds start in the quarters. That makes seeding the Final Four an easy task. The question is who wins?

What we know for sure is that it’s been 10 years since a West Division team has cut down the nets in this tourney. And the team from the West with the best chance is TOLEDO, who returns to the party after sitting out on the sidelines with an NCAA imposed suspension for low APR grades. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS the last four games in this event and 3-0 ATS the last three when taking points. UT dominated beatable opponents (18-1 SU versus sub .500 foes) but struggled in conference wars at the pay window (4-13 ATS at press time) this season.

Like Toledo, BUFFALO was one of five teams that returned 4 starters this season and that experience paid off for first-year head coach Bobby Hurley as the Bulls are 12-5 SU and 13-4 ATS in conference play at press time.

WESTERN MICHIGAN was the last team from the West Division to claim the crown in 2004, and they could be in position to do so again this year. A 9-1 SU closing run at press time, along with a 5-0 ATS mark as tourney favorites, makes the Broncos legit. AKRON, the defending champion, has made the finals each of the last 7 years and is 7-1 SUATS the last three years in this tournament. A 13-2 SU mark in its last fifteen MAC tourney games certainly deems the Zips worthy here.

THE SLEEPER: OHIO U

Like Akron, the Bobcats know the route to the title game, having made it there 3 of the last 4 years, while winning the crown two times in that span. Weak on the glass (#200 in the nation), OU makes up for its ability in games against sub .600 opponents, going 33-4 SU at press time under head coach Bill Wucznyski. That should get them out of the first round at to the ‘Q’, where anything can happen.

KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON BUFFALO AS A DOG

The Bulls have bagged the cash in 8 of their last 9 MAC meetings when taking points. They are also 5-1 ATS as a dog in this tourney. Hurley was adept as a dog in his playing career and the league has yet to catch up with his playbook. It all points to the points. Take ‘em if you see ‘em.

EXTRA TOURNEY TRENDS & NOTES

AKRON: 9-1 ATS vs #2-3 seeds, 8-1 ATS vs opp off DD SU win, 7-1 ATS L8, 5-1 ATS off DD ATS win, 0-3 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss…

BALL STATE: 6-1-1 ATS w/3+ days rest, 6-2-1 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 0-4 ATS with same-season double revenge, 1-4-1 ATS dogs off SU dog win, 3-11-1 ATS L15…

BOWLING GREEN: 4-1 ATS as favs vs opp off SU loss, 0-9 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 2-7 ATS off SUATS loss, 2-7 ATS w/same-season double revenge, 5-17 ATS L22…

BUFFALO: 4-0 ATS vs #2-3 seeds, 5-1 ATS dogs of 5 < pts, 5-2 ATS vs opp w/revenge, 2-6 ATS off DD SU win…

CENTRAL MICHIGAN: 5-1 ATS as favorites, 4-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 4-1 ATS vs opp w/revenge, 1-5 AT as dogs < 8 pts, 1-4 ATS vs opp off SU fav loss…

EASTERN MICHIGAN: 4-0 ATS vs #1 seed, 7-1 ATS vs opp off DD SU win, 0-3 ATS w/same-season revenge, 1-8 ATS L9, 1-7 ATS away, 1-6 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss...

KENT STATE: 8-2 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 4-1 ATS off SU fav loss, 4-1 ATS as DD favs, 4-1 ATS w/same-season single revenge, 0-4 ATS as dogs < 6 pts...

MIAMI,OHIO: 4-1 ATS vs #1 seed, 1-5 ATS favs off BB SUATS wins, 2-6 ATS off SU dog win…

NORTHERN ILLINOIS: 3-0 ATS off BB SUATS losses, 5-2 ATS dogs vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 0-2 ATS off SU dog win, 1-3 ATS as DD dogs…

OHIO: 6-1 ATS w/same-season single revenge, 11-2 ATS as dogs > 1 pt, 10-2 ATS off DD ATS win, 4-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 1-6 ATS L7, 1-5 ATS as #3 seed…

TOLEDO: 5-1 ATS L6, 6-2 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses, 0-3 ATS vs opp w/revenge off SU dog win, 1-5-2 ATS off SUATS win vs opp off DD SU win...

WESTERN MICHIGAN: 5-1 ATS favs vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 7-2 ATS L9, 0-6 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss, 0-6 ATS dogs vs opp off BB SU wins, 0-4 ATS off SU dog win.

TECH NOTES

-- Favorites with same-season single revenge are 18-7 ATS…

-- Underdogs off a SU favorite loss are 6-1 ATS…

-- Teams with same-season double revenge are 15-31 ATS off a SU win and 1-7 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss…

-- #1 seeds are 9-1 ATS as favorites of 11 > pts…

-- #2 seed dogs are 2-8-1 ATS L11…

-- #3 seeds off a SU favorite loss are 6-0 ATS but 1-9 ATS off BB SUATS wins…*

-- #6 seed dogs are 1-7 ATS L8 games…

-- #8 seed DD dogs are 3-9 ATS…

-- #9 seeds are 5-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins.

[StarDust Bum]

C-USA Betting Notes

March 10, 2014


CONFERENCE USA

March 11-15 -- All games at the Don Haskins Center, El Paso, TX (home court of UTEP)

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: SOUTHERN MISS, LA TECH, MIDDLE TENNESSEE, UTEP

THE WAY WE SEE IT:

With Memphis out of the way, it’s time a new #1 seed makes a name in this tourney. The Tigers had captured the crown 7 of the last 8 years in the C-USA tourney before bolting for the new American Athletic Conference. A lot of which went hand-in-hand with the fact the top seed in this tourney has made it to the title game 9 of the last 10 years, while cutting down the nets 10 of the last 13 years. That being the case, the dilemma is that no less than four teams were tied atop the conference standings at 12-3 heading to press time. The good news is the top 4 seeds in this tourney receive double byes, with seeds 5-9 getting a single bye.

From an all-important RPI standpoint, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI sits atop the pack in the C-USA. The Golden Eagles were the runner-up in this tourney last year and won 27 games before losing in the quarterfinals of the NIT last season. Head coach Donnie Tyndall is 52-15 SU with USM at press time, including 46-5 versus .666 or less opponents, and is the team to beat.

LOUISIANA TECH was the preseason favorite to win the conference and did not disappoint after transferring in from the WAC. Like Southern Miss, the Bulldogs dominated sub .666 or less opponents this season (20-2 SU and 10-5 ATS at press time) and should arrive in a nasty mood after having been bounced in the first round of the WAC tourney as a 12.5-point, #1 seed last year.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE, another ‘new kid on the block’ in the conference this year, holds down the 3rd best RPI ranking in the loop. The Blue Raiders won the Sun Belt last season before eventually losing in the first round of the Big Dance. MTSU’s strength is on the glass where they outrebound foes a net +4.3 RPG this season after finishing +5.7 last year.

UTEP plays host to the tourney, owning the #72 RPI rating at press time, so they will need to make some noise in order to get an invite. A 152-38 SU record at the Don Haskins Center, including 10-3-1 ATS when getting points, should serve them well.

THE SLEEPER: TULSA

The Hurricane started slow (0-4 SU) but closed like their namesake with 7 straight wins (8-1 ATS) at press time. We’re now located in South Florida and if there is one thing we’ve learned since residing in this state, it’s that you don’t step in front of a hurricane at full force.

KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON SOUTHERN MISS IN GAME ONE

The Eagles have been golden in conference tourney lid-lifters (10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS), which ties directly into their aforementioned dominance against .666 or less opposition.

EXTRA TOURNEY TRENDS & NOTES

CHARLOTTE: 4-0 ATS as favs vs opp off BB SU/ATS wins, 1-9 ATS off SU loss, 1-5 ATS L6, 3-8 ATS w/revenge

EAST CAROLINA: 3-0 ATS off DD SU win, 1-6 ATS off SU loss, 1-6 ATS vs opp off SU win

FLORIDA ATLANTIC: 0-4 ATS vs opp w/revenge, 0-3 ATS off SU/ATS win, 1-5 ATS as favs, 1-3 ATS off DD ATS loss

LOUISIANA TECH: 4-0 ATS as dogs < 7 pts, 4-1 ATS off SU dog win, 0-2 ATS off DD ATS win, 1-5 ATS vs opp off DD SU win

MARSHALL: 2-0 ATS as dogs off SU loss, 4-1 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss, 0-2 ATS vs opp off BB SU/ATS wins, 1-4 ATS favs < 7 pts

MIDDLE TENNESSEE: 4-1 ATS as dogs > 3 pts, 1-7-1 ATS L9, 1-6 ATS off BB SUATS wins, 1-4 ATS as favs vs opp off SU loss

NORTH TEXAS: 2-0 ATS off BB SU losses, 4-1 ATS off 3+ SUATS wins, 3-1 ATS as dogs 3 < pts, 1-4 ATS off DD ATS win

OLD DOMINION: 3-0 ATS as dogs of BB SU/ATS wins, 2-0 ATS off BB SU losses, 0-4 ATS vs opp off SU fav loss, 0-2 ATS w/same-season single revenge

RICE: 5-0 ATS off BB SU losses, 4-0-1 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 6-1-1 ATS dogs 5 > pts, 6-1-1 ATS w/3+ days rest

SOUTHERN MISS: 5-1 ATS favs off BB SU wins, 1-6 ATS off SU dog win, 1-6-1 dogs off BB SUATS wins, 2-6 ATS vs opp off BB SU/ATS wins

TEXAS SAN ANTONIO: 1st year in tourney

TULANE: 4-1 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU loss, 3-1 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 3-1 ATS vs #1 seed, 0-5 ATS L5, 1-4 ATS off BB SU/ATS wins

TULSA: 3-0 ATS w/same-season single revenge, 3-1 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 0-3 ATS w/same-season double revenge, 2-6 ATS vs opp off DD SU win

UAB: 5-1 ATS off DD ATS win, 4-0 ATS as dogs off DD SU win, 1-11 ATS L12 games, 1-9 ATS favs 6 < pts…

UTEP: 5-0-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 3-0 ATS as DD favs, 8-2 ATS favs vs opp off SU win. 1-3 ATS as dogs vs opp off SU win.

TECH NOTES:

-- Teams off a DD SU win are 13-1-1 ATS vs opp off SU/ATS loss…

-- Teams off BB SU/ATS losses are 11-1 ATS w/same-season single revenge…

-- Favorites w/revenge are 5-1-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win…

-- Underdogs off BB SU losses are 10-3 ATS vs opp off SU loss…

-- #2 seeds are 0-5-1 ATS w/revenge…

-- #3 seeds are 1-7 ATS off BB SUATS wins…

-- #4 seeds are 1-5 ATS as DD dogs…

-- #7 seeds are 0-4 ATS L4 but 8-2-1 ATS off BB SU/ATS wins…

-- #9 seeds are 8-2 ATS vs opp off SU/ATS win.

[StarDust Bum]

Sleeper Squads

March 10, 2014


It's the best week of the year for college basketball betting fans, as every team in every conference has a shot to play its way into the NCAA tournament. There are always clubs that come out of nowhere to steal bids, and we've got a look at some of the ones that can do some damage and blow up some bubbles in the process.

Rhode Island Rams (14-17, 16-11 ATS) – The Rams have covered their last five games, and they have gone 3-2 SU in those duels. Their only losses both came by three points to UMass and St. Joe's. Not only are the Minutemen up first, but next in line is GW. Both of those teams have already locked up their spot to the dance. With Rhode Island playing so well, the A-10 Tournament could get turned upside down, but this isn't the only team we think could prove to be problematic in Brooklyn.

La Salle Explorers (15-15, 7-19-1 ATS) – We know. That ATS record was atrocious this season for La Salle. However, last season, this team went from the First Four to the Sweet 16, and there are a lot of holdovers from that club. In fact, only Ramon Galloway is gone. Steve Zack is a better big man now, and the rest of the numbers are falling in line too, but the bottom line is that the A-10 has been a horror to try to win games in. Don't discount the possibility that, while Rhode Island is doing damage on one side of the bracket, La Salle might be blowing up the other, especially with as suspect as some of the teams at the top of the A-10 have been playing of late.

Northern Illinois Huskies (14-16, 16-11-1 ATS) - The Huskies served notice to the rest of the MAC when they upset Toledo a few weeks ago. They'll be favored against lowly Bowling Green to start off the MAC Tournament, and then it's off to a game with Buffalo, a very winnable fixture for a team which loves to take the air out of the basketball. The best part about the Huskies? They're 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games entering this tourney. Even if NIU doesn't win it, we know we don't want to fade it on the college basketball betting lines.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (18-11, 19-10 ATS) – Why? Do you have a better idea who is winning the Big Ten Tournament? The Cornhuskers are the fourth seed in this tournament, but they'll be dogs in every game which they play for sure. However, they already have upsets of Wisconsin and Michigan State of late, and they are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine. Why “Nebrasketball” you ask? Why not?!

Alabama Crimson Tide (13-18, 11-14-3 ATS) – Florida is winning the SEC. We know this. There's a reason that the team didn't lose a conference game all season long. But if you look at the rest of the draw Alabama is set to face, and you realize that Trevor Releford is Alabama's answer to the crazy stuff which Marshall Henderson does for Ole Miss, you'll realize that maybe we're not so crazy. LSU seems destined to crash out of this tournament in a hurry, and up next would be Kentucky, who could beat Bama by 30 or lose by 20. The Tide’s covered their last three (including nearly beating Kentucky), and they at least have to think they can make it to the weekend at the Georgia Dome whether anyone else believes in them or not.

[Udog]

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Monday, March 10

WM & MARY: 16-6 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams

DELAWARE: 22-45 ATS versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game

ST MARYS-CA: 1-7 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4

GONZAGA: 7-1 ATS when playing their 2nd game in 3 days

SAN FRANCISCO: 21-11 ATS after 2 consecutive conference games

BYU: 3-11 ATS after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games

BALL ST: 3-13 ATS after a game with 9 or less assists

OHIO U: 13-4 ATS in first round tournament games

KENT ST: 15-5 ATS as a road underdog or pick

MIAMI OHIO: 4-13 ATS as a home favorite or pick

C MICHIGAN: 15-30 ATS after 2 consecutive conference games

E MICHIGAN: 32-19 ATS after a conference game

BOWLING GREEN: 17-38 ATS in March games

N ILLINOIS: 11-4 ATS after 2 consecutive conference games

[Udog]

NBA
Short Sheet

Monday, March 10

Denver at Charlotte, 7:05 ET
Denver: 26-35 ATS in all games
Charlotte: 21-11 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses

Washington at Miami, 7:35 ET
Washington: 17-8 ATS as a road underdog
Miami: 1-11 ATS at home after playing 3 consecutive road games

Philadelphia at New York, 7:35 ET
Philadelphia: 7-16 ATS off a home loss
New York: 9-1 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog

Toronto at Brooklyn, 7:35 ET
Toronto: 16-6 ATS as a road underdog
Brooklyn: 41-60 ATS after a game where they covered the spread

Atlanta at Utah, 9:05 ET
Atlanta: 10-21 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders
Utah: 18-7 ATS after having lost 4 of their last 5 games

Orlando at Milwaukee, 8:05 ET
Orlando: 9-1 OVER after a combined score of 225 points or more
Milwaukee: 15-27 ATS as a home underdog

Phoenix at LA Clippers, 10:35 ET
Phoenix: 16-7 ATS as a road underdog
LA Clippers: 21-8 OVER off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite

[Udog]

NHL
Short Sheet

Monday, March 10

Pittsburgh at Washington, 7:05 ET
Pittsburgh: 19-6 SU when playing their 4th game in 7 days
Washington: 4-11 SU after 2 or more consecutive unders

Nashville at Ottawa, 7:35 ET
Nashville: 27-17 SU revenging a same season loss vs opponent
Ottawa: 7-14 SU as a home favorite

Phoenix at Tampa Bay, 7:35 ET
Phoenix: 10-21 SU in road games
Tampa Bay: 6-0 SU after a home game where both teams score 3 or more goals

Columbus at Dallas, 8:35 ET
Columbus: 8-2 SU after a close win by 1 goal in their previous game
Dallas: 1-6 SU after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games

Winnipeg at Colorado, 9:05 ET
Winnipeg: 7-16 SU vs. division opponents
Colorado: 11-3 SU revenging a same season loss vs opponent

LA Kings at Calgary, 9:05 ET
LA Kings: 16-3 SU after 2 straight wins by 2 goals or more
Calgary: 23-45 SU off a close loss by 1 goal to a division rival

Toronto at Anaheim, 10:05 ET
Toronto: 8-15 SU as a road underdog
Anaheim: 34-13 SU as a favorite

NY Islanders at Vancouver, 10:05 ET
Ny Islanders: 6-2 SU in road games after having lost 4 of their last 5
Vancouver: 4-11 SU after scoring 2 goals or less in 3 straight games