Wednesday's Trends and Indexes - 2/26 (NBA, NCAAB, NHL, Misc.)

[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel

Houston at LA Clippers
The Clippers host a Houston team that is coming off a 129-103 blowout win over Sacramento and is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU victory of more than 10 points. LA is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 26

Game 701-702: Orlando at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 109.103 Philadelphia 110.221
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 216
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 3 1/2; 212
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3 1/2); Over

Game 703-704: Atlanta at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 113.793; Boston 112.375
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 2; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2); Under

Game 705-706: Cleveland at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 113.796; Oklahoma City 129.600
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 16; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 13 1/2; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-13 1/2); Over

Game 707-708: New Orleans at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 114.814; Dallas 126.113
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 11 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 7; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7); Under

Game 709-710: LA Lakers at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 112.382; Memphis 121.049
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 8 1/2; 187
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 11 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+11); Under

Game 711-712: Golden State at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 122.852; Chicago 125.349
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 183
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 3 1/2; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3 1/2); Under

Game 713-714: Detroit at San Antonio (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 113.095; San Antonio 125.496
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 12 1/2; 215
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 10 1/2; 210 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-10 1/2); Over

Game 715-716: Phoenix at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 118.657; Utah 119.451
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 1; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 2; 202
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+2); Over

Game 717-718: Brooklyn at Portland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 118.518; Portland 125.444
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 7; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 3; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-3); Over

Game 719-720: Houston at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 121.448; LA Clippers 129.683
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 8; 217
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 5 1/2; 221
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-5 1/2); Under

[Udog]

NCAAB

Wednesday, February 26

Wichita St. wins 30 straight, is college hoop's best bet

Wichita State not only made history Tuesday night by defeating Bradley 69-49 and becoming the first team in college basketball to start a regular season 30-0, they also are the best bet in college hoops.

The Shockers are now 20-6-1 against the spread in lined games this season, including a remarkable 11-1 ATS mark on the road.

Wichita State will have the chance to finish the regular season a perfect 31-0 when they host Missouri State Saturday.


Coach of the year candidates cashing for bettors

Bleacher Report’s Thad Novak ranked the top 20 candidates for college basketball’s coach of the year, placing Virginia’s Tony Bennett No. 1 for his work in putting the surprising Cavaliers atop the ACC at the moment. Virginia is 23-5 straight-up (SU) and respectable 14-9-1 against the spread (ATS).

But who among Novak’s favorites is doing the best job at the betting window?

That would be Wichita State’s Gregg Marshall, whose team is first in the nation with a 20-6-1 ATS mark. Marshall was Novak’s No. 2 choice for coach of the year. Among others in Novak’s top 20 who are providing particularly strong returns on bettors’ investments: Larry Brown at Southern Methodist (16-8 ATS, 15th), Jay Wright at Villanova (17-8 ATS, tied for seventh), Tim Miles at Nebraska (17-8 ATS, tied for seventh) and Steve Alford at UCLA (17-9 ATS, 16th).

[Udog]

NBA

Wednesday, February 26

Suns' guard Goran Dragic, questionable Wednesday

Dragic twisted his right ankle Tuesday against the Timberwolves and is questionable to play Wednesday against the Jazz.


Rockets and Clippers open with huge O/U

The Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets are second and third, respectively, in scoring offense this season and they have gotten a huge line to show.

The line for the game opened at an extremely high 220. When you consider that earlier this season these teams scored a combined 255 points.


Warriors failing to cover in Chicago

The Golden State Warriors start their six game road trip in Chicago, a court that hasn’t been good to them. The Warriors are 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four in Chicago.

Golden State opens as a 3-point road favorite Wednesday.


Cavs not a safe double-digit dog play

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been terrible this season against the spread when they are double-digit dogs. When the Cavs are spotted 10 or more points this season they are 1-4 ATS.

The Cavs opened at +13.5 when they visit the Thunder Wednesday.

[Udog]

NHL

Wednesday, February 26

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NHL teams feeling the biggest effects of the Olympics
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With the two-week Olympic break finally drawing to an end, it's back to normal for the majority of NHL teams - but not all of them.

A handful of clubs were profoundly affected by the break, and NHL bettors should keep a close eye on these teams as action resumes this week. Here are the five teams impacted the most by the break and the fallout from the Olympic tournament:

New York Islanders (22-30-8, 14th in the East)

Islanders GM Garth Snow isn't a happy guy these days after watching John Tavares - his star forward and captain - suffer a season-ending knee injury in Canada's quarterfinal win over Latvia. Tavares was slumping prior to the break, scoring once and adding an assist in six games, but is still third in the NHL in scoring. The Islanders were considered a long shot at best to reach the postseason, sitting 12 points out of eighth, but the Tavares injury erases what little hope they had.

Detroit Red Wings (26-20-12, 8th in the East)

The Red Wings are in a better position than the Islanders at the moment, but that could very well change. Their captain, Henrik Zetterberg, played through a herniated disk in his back during Sweden's tournament-opening victory over the Czech Republic but withdrew from the tournament shortly after. He underwent surgery last week and won't be evaluated for another eight weeks, putting his return this season - and Detroit's playoff hopes - in serious jeopardy.

Chicago Blackhawks (35-11-14, 3rd in the West)

The Blackhawks had a whopping 10 players selected to the various Olympic teams, including six - Sweden's Marcus Kruger, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Johnny Oduya and Canada's Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp and Duncan Keith - who played for the teams that tangled for gold. That means a lot of extra games and travel miles to deal with. And, with Chicago in a fight for top spot in the conference, that can only be a hindrance.

Ottawa Senators (26-22-11, T-9th in the East)

The Senators could see a significant difference in their post-Olympic fortunes based primarily on how they weren't affected by the break. Ottawa sent just two players to Sochi - tied with Florida and Nashville for the fewest of any NHL team - and one of them, Milan Michalek of the Czech Republic, didn't make it past the quarterfinals. The other, Swedish defenseman Erik Karlsson, may have been the best player in the tournament, and at 23 should still have fresh legs.

Tampa Bay Lightning (33-20-5, 3rd in the East)

The Lightning could have been facing a major crisis after forward Martin St. Louis reportedly asked for a trade when he was initially left off the Team Canada roster by his own GM, Steve Yzerman. St. Louis was later added as an injury replacement, and would go on to help the Canadians repeat as gold medalists. With a satisfied St. Louis in the fold and injured Steven Stamkos benefiting from the extended time off, the Lightning appear primed for a run at top spot in the East.


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[Udog]

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Wednesday, February 26

ARIZONA ST: 2-18 ATS after one or more consecutive overs

AUBURN: 0-10 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival

NEBRASKA: 12-1 ATS after 2 consecutive conference games

OHIO U: 0-11 ATS off a road win against a conference rival

MIAMI: 11-0 ATSoff a home win by 10 points or more

DREXEL: 0-9 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less

NOTRE DAME: 0-8 ATS after playing a road game

OLE MISS: 13-1 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive overs

[Udog]

NBA
Short Sheet

Wednesday, February 26

Orlando at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
Orlando: 5-18 ATS as a favorite
Philadelphia: 30-17 OVER in home games after playing a game as an underdog

Atlanta at Boston, 7:35 ET
Atlanta: 66-95 ATS in road games off a home loss
Boston: 40-20 ATS against Southeast division opponents

Cleveland at Oklahoma City, 8:05 ET
Cleveland: 10-21 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread
Oklahoma City: 20-9 ATS off a upset loss as a favorite

New Orleans at Dallas, 8:05 ET
New Orleans: 25-14 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more
Dallas: 6-16 ATS in home games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games

LA Lakers at Memphis, 8:05 ET
LA Lakers: 12-4 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games
Memphis: 10-25 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points

Golden State at Chicago, 8:05 ET
Golden State: 12-2 OVER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points
Chicago: 32-47 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins

Detroit at San Antonio, 8:35 ET
Detroit: 4-15 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points
San Antonio: 11-2 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more

Phoenix at Utah, 9:05 ET
Phoenix: 10-2 ATS against Northwest division opponents
Utah: 38-18 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200

Brooklyn at Portland, 10:05 ET
Brooklyn: 38-58 ATS after a game where they covered the spread
Portland: 18-7 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread

Houston at LA Clippers, 10:35 ET
Houston: 8-0 ATS after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games
LA Clippers: 5-16 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games

[Udog]

NHL
Short Sheet

Wednesday, February 26

Boston at Buffalo, 7:35 ET
Boston: 16-4 SU after a division game
Buffalo: 16-42 SU in all games

Detroit at Montreal, 7:35 ET
Detroit: 2-8 SU off a loss against a division rival
Montreal: 36-46 SU as a favorite

Los Angeles at Colorado, 10:05 ET
Los Angeles: 2-8 SU after having lost 3 of their last 4 games
Colorado: 15-4 SU revenging a loss

St Louis at Vancouver, 10:35 ET
Detroit: n/a
Montreal: n/a

[StarDust Bum]

Sleeper Schools

February 26, 2014


2014 NCAA Tournament Upset Threats

The 2013 NCAA Tournament featured some big surprises with teams seeded #9, #12, #13, and #15 all making it to the Sweet 16, with #9 seed Wichita State making the Final Four along with two #4 seeds.

This year’s tournament may not have a ‘Dunk City’ or a ‘shocking’ final four entrant but here are a few deep sleepers that could win a few games from double-digit seed positions.

That is, of course, if they get in.

Wisconsin-Green Bay: The Horizon League lost a couple of programs before this season (notably Butler) but Green Bay has dominated the league at 12-2 while going 22-5 overall. The Phoenix will be the heavy favorite to win the automatic tournament bid in the post-season tournament but they have a chance to get an at-large bid if they get upset. Green Bay has played two elite teams this season and they played commendably in those contests, beating Virginia and losing by just three against Wisconsin. 7’1” senior center Alec Brown is a NBA prospect while the backcourt is led by diminutive junior Keifer Sykes who has scored over 20 points per game. The Phoenix has solid depth with eight players averaging at least 11 minutes per game and there is good balance with strong efficiency numbers on both sides of the ball. Green Bay has shown versatility winning with great defense in holding 12 foes to fewer than 60 points this season while also scoring 80 or more points nine separate times. This is a complete team with veteran talent and a team that no foe will want to draw in a possibly the dreaded #5/12 matchup.

St. John’s: It has taken some time to develop but this young Red Storm squad had hit its stride late in the season. Half of the 10 losses for St. John’s have come against top 10 RPI teams and all of those games were close games with three of the five defeats decided by five points or less. St. John’s nearly won at Villanova last weekend and while this could be a team that ends up right on the bubble, wins in nine of the last 11 games could help to benefit the case for inclusion. St. John’s does not have a great deal of quality wins outside of a win over Creighton but this squad has next level talent and a proven veteran coach that has the team peaking at the right time after some early ups-and-downs. Having already played many of the top teams in the country should help to prepare the team for a potential first round matchup against a less talented team in a likely #8/9 or #7/10 draw should St. John’s finish up the season strong. St. John’s would also be a candidate for one of the first four play-in games depending on how the season finishes out and where the bubble ends up. In recent NCAA Tournaments teams like Virginia Commonwealth and LaSalle have used those games as springboards to great runs in March Madness and this is a team to keep an eye should they make the dance field.

Richmond: The Atlantic 10 has no shortage of quality teams with St. Louis, Virginia Commonwealth, George Washington, and St. Joseph’s getting the most attention. Richmond is a team that may be overlooked as the Spiders feature one of the best defenses in the conference and this squad is battle tested after playing several prominent non-conference games. The Spiders did not win many of those games which will have the program teetering on the NCAA Tournament bubble but playing close with teams with elite talent like Florida and North Carolina should give the team confidence in any matchup. The Spiders are led by their backcourt with Cedrick Lindsay and Kendall Anthony being the top performers on the team and there has been great improvement as the year has gone by from the talented young frontcourt. Richmond has been one of the better teams in the nation at defending the 3-point shot which means they could give trouble to a favorite that is reliant on outside shooting in a tournament setting. Richmond has work to do to even make the field but this team could be an overlooked upset threat in March.

Middle Tennessee State: The Blue Raiders currently lead the Conference USA standings but no team in the league is a guaranteed a spot in the big dance. Five teams are currently 10-3 or better in the standings as the monster league with 16 teams is watered down with some of the new entrants struggling at the bottom. Middle Tennessee State has made a smooth transition to the conference but they will need to win the conference tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament field. No team is playing better late in the season with the Blue Raiders winning nine in a row heading into this week’s big game at Louisiana Tech. Five wins on current streak have come on the road and the Blue Raiders played some credible games in the non-conference season with losses to Florida, Cincinnati, and Mississippi. Being fairly centrally located can also be a plus for the Blue Raiders in the tournament as they won’t face long travel unless they are sent out west to San Diego or Spokane. This is a very tough defensive team that forces a great deal of turnovers with a lot of pressure, something that has led teams like Louisville and VCU to tournament success in recent years. A veteran squad with four seniors that contribute significantly could be a threat if they can get into the picture as last season the Blue Raiders met disappointment with a loss in a first four game with St. Mary’s.

Nebraska: The Cornhuskers started the Big Ten season 0-4 and that was after suffering four non-conference losses. Nebraska is 8-2 in the last 10 games however with marquee wins over Ohio State and at Michigan State. This is a team that is on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble right now but with a favorable schedule down the stretch they could make a compelling case for inclusion barring a bad loss or a one-and-done showing in the Big Ten tournament. Nebraska might need to beat Wisconsin in the regular season finale to get into the tournament but should the Huskers take three of the final four games and finish 11-7 in a very strong Big Ten, it will be tough to leave them out. This is a team that no one will want to see lined up against them in the bracket as a young team with only one senior has improved dramatically as the season has gone on and is starting to win games away from home. Six of the last seven foes have been held below 60 points as the defensive efficiency ratings continue to support Nebraska as a high quality team and while the offense is not explosive, the Huskers do a great job of taking care of the ball and getting to the line. This is a team that is much better than the overall season picture represents and would be a dangerous double-digit seed in the big dance.

[StarDust Bum]

Bracketology Update

February 26, 2014


We're getting closer to Selection Sunday, so it's time for another Bracketology update as we close February. Recent developments on a very fluid "bubble" have created some different seeding dynamics which have resulted in numerous adjustments from our last complete update two weeks ago.

Remember, for all of our "Bracketology" updates, the term "protected seed" refers to seeds 1 thru 4 in each region, and usual favorable geographic placement in the sub-regional round.

As usual, we break down the projected matchups by each region, beginning with the sub-regionals, which this season will begin on Thursday, March 20, with the Dayton "First Four" games played on March 18 and 19. Straight-up records and RPI as of Sunday, February 23 are included.

By the way, Selection Sunday is just three weeks away.

EAST REGIONAL (New York City)

At Buffalo...

1 Syracuse (SUR 25-2, RPI-8) vs. 16 Southern (16-11, 186)/Robert Morris (18-11, 128)...After back-to-back losses to BC and Duke following some hair-rasing escapes vs. Pitt and NC State, the 'Cuse is definitely wobbling on the top line and is very close to dropping to a No. 2 seed. Either way, we expect Jim Boeheim's bunch to make an appearance in nearby Buffalo for the sub-regionals. And, whaddya know, here again is Robert Morris, once again taking charge in the Northeast, and the home team of the Pittsburgh Airport could even bypass a 16 vs. 16 play-in game if it keeps winning, as it has done for six straight and 13 of its last 14 games. Southern U continues to set the pace over Alabama State in the SWAC, which will go upscale for this year's conference tourney in the Houston Rockets' Toyota Center.

8 New Mexico (21-5, 21) vs. 9 St. John's (18-10, 53)...Any doubts about New Mexico possibly missing the field have been all but been eliminated after last Saturday's thumping of San Diego State. The Lobos might warrant a better seed than an 8 by Selection Sunday, but we still think the Mountain West is only a 2-bid league unless an upset occurs in the conference tourney at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. Even with Saturday's close loss at Villanova, the recent trajectory of St. John's has it safely into the field of 68, especially with so many bubble teams struggling in recent weeks.

At San Diego...

4 Louisville (23-4, 29) vs. 13 Delaware (20-9, 64)...After Saturday's last-second win at Cincinnati, Louisville is looking very good for a protected seed, although in this update we're not sending the Cards anywhere near their home base for the sub-regionals. Delaware's hold on the top seed in the fast-approaching Colonial Tourney is becoming a bit tenuous after recent losses to Towson and Drexel, which are going to believe (along with William & Mary) that they have a real shot in the CAA tourney, which in March moves north on I-95 from its traditional home at the Richmond Coliseum to the Baltimore Arena, former home of the NBA's Baltimore Bullets during the days of the original Gus Johnson as well as Earl Monroe. That venue, however, might be a plus for nearby Towson, located in the Baltimore 'burbs.

5 Ohio State (22-6, 17) vs. 12 Harvard (22-4, 52)...Thad Matta's bunch has steadied since a January slump and won six of its last seven, but we still have the Buckeyes outside of protected seed territory (which could mean the difference between closer-by Milwaukee or Buffalo, and a much longer trip to a place like San Diego, for the sub-regionals...which might be the first time anyone would prefer trips to Milwaukee or Buffalo over San Diego). Harvard was recently challenged by Yale in the Ivies, but the Eli took a tumble last weekend vs. Columbia, and are at risk of losing again this weekend to either Princeton or Penn and perhaps removing the showdown aspect of their March 7 matchup vs. Tommy Amaker's Crimson.

At Raleigh...

2 Villanova (24-3, 4) vs. 15 Vermont (19-9, 111)...Were it not for Creighton and those two puzzling blowout losses to the Bluejays, Jay Wright's Wildcats would probably be projected onto the top line. Which they still might reach if they win the Big East Tourney and a side such as Syracuse slips another time or two. Meanwhile, Vermont will likely be entering the fast-approaching America East Tourney as the likely top seed. The home team of Strat-o-Matic headquarters on Long Island, Stony Brook, looms as the top challenger for the event that now holds it preliminary rounds at the Albany Great Danes' SEFCU Arena before the highest remaining seed hosts the title game on March 15.

7 Texas (20-7, 24) vs. 10 Saint Joseph's (19-7, 39)...A couple of heavy losses over the past week at Iowa State and Kansas have dropped Texas a couple of lines and make it unlikely that the Longhorns can qualify as a protected seed and a chance at the desired San Antonio sub-regional. As for St. Joe's, we are now projecting the Hawks comfortably into the field and away from the cut line after ascending to second place in the rugged A-10 and winning 15 of their last 18. All a sweet redemption for HC Phil Martelli, who was feeling some heat on Hawk Hill not long ago.

At Milwaukee...

3 Michigan (19-7, 18) vs. 14 Iona (19-8, 78)...Last Sunday's impressive comeback win over Michigan State solidified John Beilein's Wolverines into protected seed territory, as we expect the Selection Committee to grant a pretty wide berth to Big Ten members. Surging in recent weeks has been Iona, which has moved clear form the pack in the Metro-Atlantic and will likely enter the conference tourney in Springfield, MA as the top seed and favorite. Jim Baron's Golden Griffs from Canisius, the "Pollsters" from Quinnipiac, and the Jaspers from Manhattan (which is actually in The Bronx!) are all going to think they have a real shot in that event, too.

6 UConn (21-6, 26) vs. 11 Cal (18-9, 49)...After moving within sight of protected seed territory, UConn took a step backward on Sunday when losing at home vs. SMU. Still, the Huskies look safely into the field after last year's academic-related ineligibility. Cal does not have a lot of room for error after several losses over the past five weeks, but the Feb. 1 win over Arizona is a nice chit to cash on Selection Sunday, and the Bears avoided a potentially-disastrous weekend at home by handling Southern Cal on Sunday after absorbing a beating at the hands of UCLA on Thursday night.

SOUTH REGIONAL (Memphis, TN)

At Orlando...

1 Florida (25-2, 3) vs. 16 Davidson (17-11, 150)...There is not much intrigue about the Gators' sub-regional destination, almost assuredly to be Orlando, and results elsewhere over the past couple of weeks suggest it is not too far-fetched to assume Billy Donovan's team could end up as the number one seed in the entire Big Dance. Stay tuned. The SoCon race has had more turns than Sunday's Dayton 500, but as the regular-season checkered flag gets ready to fall, familiar Davidson is back in front after a recent surge that has seen the Wildcats win 10 in a row.

8 Kansas State (18-9, 42) vs. 9 Xavier (18-9, 57)...Both of these sides have hit some bumps lately but still look to be clear of the cut line...at least for now. Bruce Weber's K-State has been alternating wins and losses for almost a month and can probably back into the field of 68 continuing the same pattern, although the Wildcats' seed could continue to fall. Much the same for the "X" men, but keep in mind that Chris Mack's Musketeers have a pretty tricky slate before we even get to the Big East Tourney, with surging St. John's and league leaders Villanova and Creighton still to come. Yes, there is still time for Xavier to play itself into some serious bubble trouble.

At Milwaukee...

4 Saint Louis (25-2, 11) vs. 13 Stephen F. Austin (25-2, 71)...At this point, we don't think there is any doubt that Saint Louis will advance into the Dance as a protected seed, as the Billikens have not lost in almost three months (and that was vs. still-unbeaten Wichita State) and lead the well-regarded A-10. Even more prohibitively favored in its conference tourney will be SFA, which is in the process of running away with the Southland's regular-season crown for new HC Brad Underwood. We were saying the same things about the Nacogdoches bunch last year at this time, however, before the 'Jacks got KO'd in the conference tourney, which was won by Northwestern State. In the same scenario this March, could SFA merit some at-large consideration?

5 Iowa (19-7, 34) vs. 12 Green Bay (22-5, 56)...We have had Iowa hovering in the 4-6 seed range since New Year's and simply split the difference with the Hawkeyes, who would probably be thrilled to have a sub-regional assignment in Milwaukee. So, of course, would nearby Green Bay, which has overcome a few bumpy efforts to assume command of the Horizon League. The Packers, er, Fighting Phoenix, will get to host the conference tourney in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds if they hold on to the reg.-season crown, and then would get play again at home for the conference tourney title if they reach the final round.

At Raleigh...

2 Duke (22-6, 9) vs. 15 Boston U (20-9, 86)...Interestingly, it was not long ago that there was concern about selling tickets for the sub-regional at PNC Arena if no Carolina-based ACC teams would be participating, as was originally expected. Now, however, with nearby Duke appearing solid for a protected seed, and red-hot North Carolina knocking on the door as well, the local ticket scalpers are smiling. Homecourt edge in the Patriot League Tourney is probably going to be decided between loop newcomer Boston U and D.C.-based American U, which sits just across the street from where Norah O'Donnell used to work at the NBC News Washington bureau before she moved to CBS.

7 Stanford (18-8, 41) vs. 10 George Washington (20-7, 30)...The significance of Stanford's win over UCLA last Saturday goes beyond moving the Cardinal a good distance on the safe side of the Big Dance cut line. It also likely means that HC Johnny Dawkins, widely rumored to need an NCAA bid to save his job, can finally start breathing a bit easier. It would also intrigue greatly if Stanford drew the same sub-regional pod as Dawkins' alma mater Duke, and mentor Coach K, as those sorts of things often happen in the NCAA Tournament. As for George Washington, it could have been in a some bubble trouble had it a lost last week at Richmond, but the Colonials survived. Still, with losses in three of four, Mike Lonergan's crew is advised to stop the bleeding quickly before Selection Sunday.

At San Antonio...

3 Creighton (23-4, 7) vs. 14 Georgia State (20-7, 95)...It was a bit too close for comfort on Sunday vs. Seton Hall, but another escape by Creighton increases the likelihood Doug McDermott ends his college career with a protected seed in the Big Dance. One team the big boys might want to avoid is Georgia State, with an explosive backcourt featuring HC Ron Hunter's son R.J., plus a slew of higher-profile D-I transfers. The Panthers have run away with the Sun Belt's regular-season crown, but will need to survive the conference tourney in New Orleans to advance to the Dance, or settle for an NIT berth instead.

6 Oklahoma (20-7, 23) vs. 11 Colorado (20-8, 27)...Colorado did not help itself with that Saturday blowout loss vs. Arizona, but the Buffs still have enough cushion to stay on the right side of the cut line. Besides, it's not as if there is a surge of contenders moving off of the bubble to steal a bid in recent weeks. Lon Kruger's Oklahoma has no such worries, and would surely like a sub-regional assignment in San Antonio, probably the most convenient available site for OU. If this matchup were to occur, it would pit old Big 8/12 rivals.

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis, IN)

At St. Louis...

1 Wichita State (29-0, 9) vs. 16 NC Central (21-5, 126)...We continue to hear some chatter about Wichita not being worthy of a regional number one seed. Not only do we think the Shockers will land on the top line, we think they could even lose in "Arch Madness" in St. Louis and probably stay a number one seed. Have the experts forgotten that Gregg Marshall's team made the Final Four last spring? The MEAC reps often get sent to one of the 16 vs. 16 play-in games at Dayton, but if league leader NC Central should win the conference tourney, we suspect the loop will miss the First Four entirely this season. The conference tourney begins March 10 at the venerable Norfolk Scope, long ago one of the home courts for Julius Erving and the ABA Virginia Squires.

8 SMU (22-6, 45) vs. 9 VCU (20-7, 25)...The last time SMU made the Big Dance, Bill Clinton had been living in the White House for only a couple of months (1993), and the Ponies were representing the long-forgotten Southwest Conference. But vet HC Larry Brown knows his way around the NCAA Tourney and can begin to make reservations after Sunday's win over UConn. VCU has taken a few road losses lately which have likely pushed its seed down into the dreaded 8-9 range, where a number-one seed almost surely awaits in the following round of the sub-regional.

At Spokane...

4 Michigan State (22-6, 16) vs. 13 Toledo (23-4, 28)...Frankly, we were considering moving Michigan State out of protected seed territory after Sunday's loss at Michigan, as the Spartans continue to alternate wins and losses for the fifth straight week. Tom Izzo's team hasn't been fully healthy that entire stretch, and if those nagging injuries continue to persist, MSU could drop another line or two. As for Toledo, it will be favored in the fast-approaching MAC Tourney at Cleveland, which seems to annually have a thrill-packed title game. A team to watch in that event might be Bobby Hurley's Buffalo Bulls, who have the look of a spoiler and own perhaps the loop's top weapon in PF Javon McCrea.

5 North Carolina (20-7, 22) vs. 12 BYU (20-10, 36)/Missouri (18-9, 44)...We are getting real close to putting the Tar Heels into a protected seed slot and perhaps ticket Roy Williams' bunch for the nearby Raleigh sub-regional. That is all in the cards if Carolina continues its sizzling recent form that sees it take nine straight wins into Wednesday's bloodbath vs. NC State. We're finally siding with ESPN's Joe Lunardi and relenting on BYU, whose November wins over Stanford and Texas have looked better as the season progresses. Of course, the Cougs can still make it easy on themselves and simply win the WCC's automatic bid in its conference tourney two weeks hence at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas. Missouri is one of several SEC teams that can't seem to win on the road and is in deep bubble trouble. A quick glimpse at the league table at the start of the week notes a stunning seven-way (!) tie for fourth place, all with 7-7 league SU records!

At St. Louis...

2 Kansas (21-6, 1) vs. 15 New Mexico State (21-8, 79)...Kansas continues to cut it close at times (such as last week's 1-point escape at Texas Tech) and lurks just off of the top line, but the St. Louis sub-regional still seems a safe bet. These games will be played in the Scottrade Center, home of the NHL's St. Louis Blues and the Missouri Valley "Arch Madness" Tourney, and not the Edward Jones Dome, so we wonder if there are going to be enough tickets for the crush of Jayhawks fans, who have numbered more than 20,000 alone for games played at the Rams' dome in March from past years. What is left of the WAC has turned into a more interesting race than many expected, with Dick Hunsaker's Utah Valley State challenging consensus favorite and recent familiar Big Dance face New Mexico State. Tickets are very available for a tourney to be held in front of a smattering of fans at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

7 Memphis (21-6, 37) vs. 10 Providence (18-10, 62)...Memphis has missed some of its chances to move into protected seed territory, and efforts like last Saturday's against lowly Temple make us wonder if the Tigers are even good enough for a number seven. The American reps, however, will likely be given plenty of respect by the Selection Committee. Providence is by no means clear of bubble trouble, but considering recent efforts by many in that clump of teams, the Friars have a leg up on most of those, especially when straightening out just in time after blowing a big halftime lead, then recovering, against Butler last Sunday.

At Buffalo...

3 Virginia (23-5, 15) vs. 14 Belmont (21-8, 61)...There was a point this season, as recently as late December, when we weren't even projecting Virginia into the field of 68. But nearly two months of steady performance suggests Tony Bennett's Cavs have to be taken seriously in March. One of these years, maybe Belmont finally wins one of these sub-regional games, although Rick Byrd's Bruins have only come close once (vs. Duke in 2009) in six previous Big Dance tries since 2006. Belmont will be favored in the upcoming OVC Tourney in Nashville, played across town from campus and the Bruins' Mike Curb Center at the Municipal Auditorium, which looks as if it landed in Music City from an episode of the The Jetsons.

6 UCLA (21-6, 14) vs. 11 Arkansas (18-9, 65)...UCLA was positioning itself into protected seed territory (and a likely sub-regional assignment in San Diego) until last Saturday's loss at Stanford. The Bruins can still climb to a three or four seed, but they'll need to finish fast to do so. Speaking of finishing fast, Mike Anderson's Arkansas is one SEC side that is threatening to break from that logjam in the middle of the pack, as the Razorbacks have won five of their last six entering a crucial showdown on Thursday at Kentucky.

WEST REGIONAL (Anaheim)

at San Diego...

1 Arizona (25-2, 2) vs. 16 Weber State (13-7, 163)/VMI (17-10, 222)...Arizona, now minus injured key cog F Brandon Ashley, has looked a bit unsteady at times lately. But after sweeping last week's challenging road trip at Utah and Colorado (and thumping the Buffs in the process), we can still project the Cats on the top line. Regional observers believe the Big Sky is a bit down this season, and Weber State is only a provisional favorite for what should be a wide-open tourney that begins in a few weeks. The Sky champ is likely to be involved in one of the 16 vs. 16 play-in games at Dayton. So is the Big South champ, with VMI (which reached the Elite Eight back in 1976) and Scott Cherry's High Point looking like the teams to beat in the conference tourney.

8 Gonzaga (23-6, 31) vs. 9 Pitt (20-7, 33)...Both of these sides have lost a little bit of luster in recent weeks. Especially Pitt, which was on the wrong end for the fifth time in its last seven games on Sunday vs. Florida State. The Panthers have been dropped down the seeding ladder accordingly. Gonzaga is still likely to win the WCC regular-season crown, but serious contenders don't lose games to San Diego, as the Zags did last Saturday. These two look like candidates for the dreaded 8-9 seeds.

At Orlando...

4 Kentucky (21-6, 10) vs. 13 North Dakota State (21-6, 67)...There are only two sure Big Dance bids coming out of the SEC, and Kentucky is going to get one of them. A seed in the 3-4 range looks likely for Coach Cal's latest diaper dandies edition. Meanwhile, in the Summit, a topsy-turvy race has finally developed some definition with North Dakota State emerging as the team to beat. The Mastodons of IPFW, Joe Scott's Pioneers of Denver, and the local favorite South Dakota State Jackrabbits will be other teams to watch in the upcoming league tourney at Sioux Falls, SD.

5 Cincinnati (24-4, 19) vs. 12 Oregon (18-8, 39)/Baylor (18-9, 39)...Mick "The Ghost" Cronin and his Cincinnati Bearcats might warrant a seed better than a five, but we have simply moved them down a line after Saturday's American showdown vs. Louisville. Still time for Cincy to move into a number three or four slot. We had counted both Oregon and Baylor out of the mix as recently as our last update. But extreme fluidity on the bubble and recent surges by the Ducks (three straight wins) and Bears (four straight wins, including a romp last Saturday at West Virginia) have put them both back in the mix.

At Milwaukee...

2 Wisconsin (22-5, 5) vs. 15 UCSB (18-7, 103)...A couple of weeks ago we had moved Wisconsin out of a protected seed, which is extra-important for the Badgers this season considering the chance to play in nearby Milwaukee during the first weekend. But a recent surge, capped by Saturday's rousing win at Iowa, has Wiscy and the pride of Chester, PA, HC Bo Ryan, now up to a two line in our projections. Have a hoagie, Bo! UC Irvine's loss Saturday at Cal State Northridge has allowed Bob Williams' UCSB Gauchos to move back into pole position for the upcoming Big West Tourney at the Anaheim Ducks' Honda Center. The team with the best chance to reach the Dance this season currently with a sub-.500 mark, however, might be the Big West's recently-surging Long Beach State, sitting at 12-14 after wins in 8 of its last 11 games. Watch these guys.

7 UMass (21-5, 13) vs. 10 Arizona State (19-8, 32)...After hitting a few bumps in late January and then getting dumped at home by underdog George Mason, UMass needed to bounce back against George Washington and VCU last week and the Minutemen did so, solidifying their spot in the field and (for the moment) likely staying out of the dreaded 8-9 seed slot. ASU is off a difficult week with losses at Colorado and Utah (the Sun Devils thumped in the latter) and could fall into some bubble trouble if the same thing happens later this week at home vs. Stanford and Cal. ASU's win a few weeks back vs. Arizona, however, is going to come in handy if needed on Selection Sunday.

At Spokane....

3 San Diego State (23-5, 20) vs. 14 Mercer (22-7, 73)...Losing a bit of gloss in recent weeks has been San Diego State, as losses at Wyoming and New Mexico have cost it a line in our latest projections. The Aztecs also can't play in the sub-regional on their own Viejas Arena court in San Diego. At the moment, Mercer holds a tiebreaker edge over pesky Florida Gulf Coast for homecourt edge in the Atlantic Sun Tourney, but that didn't help the Bears last season, as Andy Enfield's "Dunk City" caught an updraft at just the right time in the conference tourney. By the way, who will be the "Dunk City" of this March?

6 Iowa State (21-5, 12) vs. 11 Southern Miss (23-5, 35)...Fred Hoiberg's Cyclones have recovered from a January slump to win six of their last seven, though three of those are vs. lower-division TCU and Texas Tech sides. ISU has a case to make for a protected seed, but let's see how the Cyclones do in a difficult final stretch of their season with K-State, plus rejuvenated Baylor and Ok State, still to come before the Big 12 Tourney. As for Conference USA, it could be a 2 or 3-bid league, especially with the bubble in flux, but USM recovered from a pair of road defeats with a couple of impressive home wins last weekend, including comeback job vs. pesky UTEP, to suggest it might emerge from that scrum that will decide itself in the conference tourney at the Don Haskins Center in El Paso (edge to Tim Floyd's Miners) in a couple of weeks.

Last four byes: Cal, Colorado, Arkansas, Providence.

Last four in: BYU, Missouri, Oregon, Baylor.

Last four out: Minnesota, Georgetown, La Tech, Tennessee.

Next four out: Saint Mary's, LSU, Clemson, Dayton.

[Udog]

Great reading, Bum! Thanks! Good luck tonight!