Saturday's Trends and Indexes - 2/22 (NBA, NCAAB, NHL, Misc.)

[Udog]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, February 22

First Post?

SEC home underdogs of 7 or less points are 11-8-1 vs spread.

Summit League home favorites of 8+ points are 6-8 vs spread.

[Udog]

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Saturday, February 22

XAVIER: 7-0 ATS after a win by 15 points or more

IOWA: 8-0 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite

GA TECH: 0-7 ATS home after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers

NC: 6-0 ATS in February games this season

LOUISVILLE: 11-0 ATS off a home win against a conference opponent

KENT: 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less

VILLANOVA: 9-0 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 games

OKLAHOMA ST: 0-6 ATS in February games this season

NOTRE DAME: 0-6 ATS off a road loss this season

TULSA: 6-0 ATS in February games this season

NEVADA: 6-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season

RHODE IS: 0-10 ATS after a game giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds

WM & MARY: 6-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more this season

LASALLE: 0-7 ATS as a road underdog or pick this season

UTEP: 6-0 ATS in road games this season

VANDY: 7-0 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders

SYRACUSE: 6-0 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or lesS

LA MONROE: 0-12 ATS revenging a same season loss

TX ARLINGTON: 7-0 ATS in road games off a loss against a conference opponent

LOYOLA-IL: 10-0 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent

[Udog]

NBA
Short Sheet

Saturday, February 22

Memphis at Charlotte, 7:05 ET
Memphis: 22-9 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins
Charlotte: 12-24 ATS when playing on back-to-back days

New Orleans at Washington, 7:05 ET
New Orleans: 0-10 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite
Washington: 13-3 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games

Dallas at Detroit, 7:35 ET
Dallas: 9-1 ATS in road games after allowing 110 points or more
Detroit: 4-13 ATS against Southwest division opponents

New York at Atlanta, 7:35 ET
New York: n/a
Atlanta: n/a

Indiana at Milwaukee, 8:35 ET
Indiana: 8-1 ATS off a road loss
Milwaukee: 0-8 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as a home underdog

Minnesota at Utah, 9:05 ET
Minnesota: n/a
Utah: n/a

Boston at Sacramento, 10:05 ET
Boston: n/a
Sacramento: n/a

Brooklyn at Golden State, 10:35 ET
Brooklyn: 5-15 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 200
Golden State: 18-8 ATS in home games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread

[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel

Dallas at Detroit
The Mavericks come into tonight's matchup in Detroit with a 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games versus Central Division teams. Dallas is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Mavericks favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 22

Game 501-502: Memphis at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 123.740; Charlotte 119.667
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 4; 175
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 2; 180
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-2); Under

Game 503-504: New Orleans at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 114.821; Washington 123.501
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 8 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 6; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-6); Over

Game 505-506: Dallas at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 123.702; Detroit 118.152
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 5 1/2; 219
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 3; 214
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3); Over

Game 507-508: New York at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 117.439; Atlanta 115.647
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 3; 202
Dunkel Pick: New York (+3); Under

Game 509-510: Indiana at Milwaukee (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 124.852; Milwaukee 110.980
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 14; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 10 1/2; 189
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-10 1/2); Over

Game 511-512: Minnesota at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 116.511; Utah 120.805
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 4 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+4 1/2); Under

Game 513-514: Boston at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 114.394; Sacramento 119.587
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 5; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 8; 199
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+8); Under

Game 515-516: Brooklyn at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 119.000; Golden State 126.608
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 7 1/2; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 5; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-5); Over

[Udog]

NCAAB
Dunkel

All Remaining Games

Game 677-678: Quinnipiac at Niagara (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Quinnipiac 56.961; Niagara 50.058
Dunkel Line: Quinnipiac by 7
Vegas Line: Quinnipiac by 4
Dunkel Pick: Quinnipiac (-4)

Game 679-680: South Dakota State at North Dakota State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 51.811; North Dakota State 61.847
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 10
Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 8
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (-8)

Game 681-682: SE Missouri State at Tennessee Martin (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SE Missouri State 48.142; Tennessee Martin 41.584
Dunkel Line: SE Missouri State by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: SE Missouri State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SE Missouri State (-3 1/2)

Game 683-684: Western Illinois at South Dakota (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 49.633; South Dakota 52.219
Dunkel Line: South Dakota by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: South Dakota by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Illinois (+4 1/2)

Game 685-686: St. Peter's at Monmouth (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 49.944; Monmouth 49.326
Dunkel Line: St. Peter's by 1
Vegas Line: Monmouth by 2
Dunkel Pick: St. Peter's (+2)

Game 687-688: Wofford at Davidson (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 52.108; Davidson 63.556
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Davidson by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (-8 1/2)

Game 689-690: Morehead State at Murray State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 55.359; Murray State 56.919
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Murray State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (+3 1/2)

Game 691-692: Jacksonville State at Tennessee Tech (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville State 40.282; Tennessee Tech 50.247
Dunkel Line: Tennessee Tech by 10
Vegas Line: Tennessee Tech by 5
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee Tech (-5)

Game 693-694: NE-Omaha at Denver (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NE-Omaha 50.357; Denver 60.618
Dunkel Line: Denver by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Denver by 9
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-9)

Game 695-696: North Dakota at Northern Arizona (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota 50.099 Northern Arizona 47.767
Dunkel Line: North Dakota by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Arizona by 1
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota (+1)

Game 697-698: Eastern Kentucky at Austin Peay (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 52.393; Austin Peay 44.122
Dunkel Line: Eastern Kentucky by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Eastern Kentucky by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Kentucky (-5 1/2)

Game 699-700: Idaho State at Montana (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 46.098; Montana 54.682
Dunkel Line: Montana by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Montana by 7
Dunkel Pick: Montana (-7)

Game 701-702: Weber State at Montana State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 55.268; Montana State 45.285
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 10
Vegas Line: Weber State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Weber State (-2 1/2)

Game 703-704: Eastern Washington at Southern Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 52.741; Southern Utah 40.368
Dunkel Line: Eastern Washington by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Eastern Washington by 8
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (-8)

Game 705-706: Northern Colorado at Sacramento State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Colorado 53.387; Sacramento State 48.337
Dunkel Line: Northern Colorado by 5
Vegas Line: Northern Colorado by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Colorado (-2 1/2)

[Udog]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, February 22

Kansas State (-5) made 11-21 from arc, beat Oklahoma 72-66 Jan 14, in game where both teams made less than 35% inside arc. Wildcats are 2-3 as road underdogs, losing last five road games, with three of last four by 6 or less points, or in OT. Oklahoma is 2-3 in its last five games- they're 1-2 as home favorites- they won four of last five home games, but lost to Texas Tech. Big X home favorites of 5 or less points are 9-5 vs spread.

UTEP won all five C-USA road games; they've won 10 of last 11 games, are 3-0 as C-USA dogs. Miners got swept by Southern Miss LY, by 6-18 points, after going 8-2 in previous ten series games. USM is 5-1 as a home favorite, winning home games by 22-9-31-3-17-29 points- after a pair of losses on road last week, Golden Eagles hammered UTSA by 29 Thursday. C-USA home favorites are 36-25 against the spread.

Ohio State (-3.5) lost 63-53 at Minnesota Jan 16, ending six-game series win streak; Gophers lost last six visits here, with four of six losses by 14+ points. Minnesota lost five of last seven games as NCAA hopes are slipping away; they're 1-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 12-21-4-3-8 points. Ohio State won five of last six games; they're 3-3 as a home favorite. Big Dozen home faves of 8+ points are 14-10 vs spread.

Akron (+5.5) won 83-80 in double OT at Akron Jan 12, after trailing by 9 in second half, 5 in first OT. Zips made 9-15 from arc that game- they won last four series games, are 1-4 as home favorites, with one home win by more than 8 points. Ohio is 2-3 in last five games; they're 3-1 as road underdogs, losing road games by 16-6 points. MAC home favorites of 4 or less points are 6-10 against the spread.

Kansas (-4) lost 81-69 at Texas Feb 1; Longhorns were 30-45 on the foul line, Jayhawks 13-19. Kansas is 11-3 in last 14 series games, with Horns losing five of last six visits here, last two by 10-26 points. Big X double digit home favorites are 4-10 against spread. Jayhawks are 3-1-2 as home favorite, with five of six home wins by 10+ points. Texas is 2-3 as road underdog, losing last two away games by 17-9 points.

Syracuse (-2.5) outscored Duke 26-12 on foul line, beat Blue Devils Feb 1 in OT 91-89; Duke was 15-36 from arc, Orange 3-4. Both teams lost last game; Duke blew 11-point second half lead in 74-66 loss Thursday in Chapel Hill. Syracuse lost at home to BC Wednesday- they've scored 61 or less points in each of last five games. ACC home favorites of less than 7 points are 10-20 vs spread. Duke is 4-2 as a home favorite.

Saint Louis won last 18 games, is 11-0 in A-13, 2-3 as home favorite, but covered only once in last five games overall; Billikens beat GW last two years, by 22-8 points- their last three wins were by total of eight points. Colonials lost two of last three games, are 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 4-10-17 points. A-13 home favorites of 5+ points are 15-17 vs spread. GW lost last four visits here, three by 10+ points.

Boise State led by 11 with 3:48 left, collapsed in 73-69 loss at UNLV on Feb 1, its 5th loss in last six series games. Home team won seven of last eight series games; Rebels lost two of last three visits here, are 2-2 as dog on road. Mountain West home favorites of 8 or less points are 13-11 vs spread. Boise is 2-5 as a home favorite; their last two home games were decided by total of 3 points. Birch had six blocked shots in first game.

Stanford won four of last five games, covered last five at home- they've covered last five home games, but lost 91-74 (+5.5) at UCLA Jan 23, as Bruins forced 19 turnovers (+13), made 55% inside arc. Bruins won four in row, 13 of last 15 series games, but split last four visits here. Pac-12 home teams are 11-13 vs spread in games where spread was less than 4 points. Cardinal won four of their last five road games.

New Mexico won four of last five games vs San Diego State- they beat Aztecs in last two Mountain West tourneys, but lost two of last three series games played here. Lobos won eight of last nine games, are 3-3 as home favorite, winning last four in Pit. San Diego State lost at Wyoming in last road game, after winning 20 games in row- they're 6-3 vs spread in last nine games overall. MW home teams are 13-15 vs spread if spread was 4 or less points.

Arizona (-14) shot 59% inside arc, beat Colorado 69-57 at home Jan 23; home teams won all five regular season meetings. Wildcats lost by 1-13 points in Boulder last two years- teams split pair of meetings in Pac-12 tourney. Pac-12 home underdogs of 5 or less points are 11-6 vs spread. Arizona's last four road games were all decided by 3 or less points or in OT. Colorado won its last five home games, even without Dinwiddie.

North Dakota State (-4) won 85-77 at South Dakota State Jan 25, just its second win in last six series games; Jackrabbits lost five of its last six visits here, losing by 27-22-12-23-3 points. ND State won four in row, nine of last ten games- they're 1-3 as home favorites, winning by 22-13-6-11 points. SD State won/covered its last six games; they're 3-1 as road dog. Summit League home favorites of 8+ points are 6-8 vs spread.

Murray State won last three games with Morehead State, beating them in double OTon road LY after blowing 20-point second half lead. Racers won six of last seven games but split last four on road- they're 7-0 SU at home in OVC, but failed to cover last three home games. Morehead won its last game in double OT; they've won four in row on road, five in row overall. OVC home favorites of 5 or less points are 9-10 vs spread.

[WThotrod]

As always, thanks for the useful info and BOL today. Thanks, Udog!

[Udog]

NASCAR number: Countdown to Daytona

There is one day remaining before the 2104 Daytona 500; hence, the number for today is:

1: The position coveted by every driver in the Daytona 500 field. And, obviously, it is also the number of drivers who will accept the Harley J. Earl trophy in Victory Lane as the winner of the first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race of the season. What we do not know is whether we will have a surprise winner like Trevor Bayne in 2011, or an established star taking the checkered flag, like Jimmie Johnson last year. On Sunday afternoon, we should have the answer.





Notebook: Johnson's third car might be fastest

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. -- Perhaps the third time really is the charm for Jimmie Johnson.

After wrecking his primary Daytona 500 car in the second 150-mile qualifying Budweiser Duel at Daytona on Thursday, Johnson was down two No. 48 Chevrolets.

Johnson had trashed the intended Daytona 500 backup car five days earlier in the Sprint Unlimited.

The six-time champion expected his third Speedweeks car might be a rewrapped version of a Hendrick Motorsports teammate's Chevy. Instead, a brand new No. 48 was ready for Friday's practice, fully painted and detailed.

What's more, Johnson said the current version may be faster than the primary and backup he destroyed.

"We've been very impressed and happy with the speed this third car has had," Johnson said prior to the final NASCAR Sprint Cup Series practice session Saturday at Daytona International Speedway. "Not a situation we wanted to be in, by any means, but I wasn't aware of the preparation and our car count coming down here. Obviously we want to bring our best two race cars and we felt that was the case.

"But we brought two cars that we had a lot of success with last year, and a build on those cars that were last year's mindset and technology. Some of our teammates built new vehicles and brought them down here, and they have had a little speed on us even through qualifying."

Johnson was surprised his team also had a new car at his disposal.

"I wasn't aware that we had a (new) generation car like this, and that's what our third backup is," Johnson said. "With our single-car runs (Saturday in practice) the car had a few tenths more speed in it than our best car, the car that we had slated for the Daytona 500.

"So, with all that, it's nice to have the speed, and we'll take it from there."

TRACK TIME FOR TRUEX

Martin Truex Jr. was worried. The same wreck in the Duel that clobbered Jimmie Johnson's Chevrolet also crippled Truex's No. 78.

The Furniture Row team had no choice but to roll out a backup car, but unlike Johnson, Truex got no track time with the replacement on Friday.

Fortunately, a break in the weather allowed him to run laps on Saturday morning to get the feel of the backup car.

Truex was elated at the results, and that helped ease the pain of knowing he'll have to give up his second-place starting position in Sunday's Daytona 500 and take the green flag from the back of the field.

"I was definitely relieved to get some time in the car," Truex said after Saturday's practice. "Honestly, I'm really excited about this race car. Without a shadow of a doubt, this car is better than the one we ran the other night in the qualifying race.

"The Furniture Row guys did another good job. I even hate to call this car a backup because of how good it felt."

DROPPING BACK

From a viewing aspect, one of the most compelling stories in Sunday's Daytona 500 will be the speed coming from the rear of the field.

All told nine cars must drop to the back for the start of the race. Jimmie Johnson, Martin Truex Jr., Clint Bowyer, Jamie McMurray, Michael Waltrip and David Ragan -- all accomplished restrictor-plate race car drivers -- went to backup cars after their primary entries were KO'd in the final corner of the second Duel.

Tony Stewart, Danica Patrick and Bobby Labonte also will take the green from the rear because of blown engines and subsequent unapproved engine changes last Saturday.

[Udog]

As always, thanks for the useful info and BOL today. Thanks, Udog!

You're welcome, rod! I hope it's going well for you today!

[Udog]

Four NASCAR betting angles to follow for the Daytona 500

It’s a whole new season for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, kicking off with the running of the Daytona 500 - NASCAR’s biggest race - Sunday.

The "Great American Race" is the heaviest-bet event of the NASCAR schedule, so oddsmakers make sure their odds and numbers are as finely tuned as the cars tearing up the course at Daytona International Speedway. And like any successful driver, you need a good crew chief in your ear, keeping you on the right track.

NASCAR expert Greg Engle has four betting angles that could put you in the fast lane to profits at the Daytona 500:

Meet your maker

Ford and Chevy have won the last five Daytona 500 races with Ford taking three and Chevy taking two. Toyota has only one Sprint Cup points paying win at Daytona, that coming in the 2008 July race. Denny Hamlin did win the Sprint Unlimited in a Toyota last Saturday but thanks to a spate of crashes, only seven cars were running at the end.

Pass on the pole

One of the big stories is young rookie Austin Dillon winning the pole. The Richard Childress Racing driver was fast in the practices leading up to qualifying and Sunday he and the other Richard Childress drivers, Paul Menard and Ryan Newman should be near the front Sunday. Newman is a former Daytona 500 winner (2008) and Menard won the Brickyard 400 last season, another of NASCAR’s big races.

Starting up front doesn’t guarantee at win at Daytona. Nine of the 55 Daytona 500 races (16.3%) have been won from the pole. The last to do so was Dale Jarrett in 2000. Jeff Gordon is the only active driver to accomplish the feat (1999). Here’s a breakdown for the rest of the field and where past winners started from:

• 16 of the 55 Daytona 500s (29.0 percent) have been won from the front row.
• 27 of the 55 Daytona 500s (49.0 percent) have been won from a Top-5 starting position.
• 40 of the 55 Daytona 500s (72.7 percent) have been won from a Top-10 starting position.

Run with the ratings

One of the most important stats for bettors is driver rating. These ratings are put together by NASCAR and use a combination of laps led, wins and highest finishes. The higher the rating, the stronger that driver is and the better chance you’ll see them in Victory Lane. Here are the Top 10 driver ratings for Daytona (ratings are for all Daytona races from 2005-2013).

Kyle Busch 96.9
Tony Stewart 93.0
Matt Kenseth 92.6
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 89.7
Kurt Busch 88.8
Jimmie Johnson 88.4
Jeff Gordon 87.2
Clint Bowyer 86.2
Denny Hamlin 83.7
Kasey Kahne 82.4

No ordinary Joe

After Thursday night’s Budweiser Duel qualifying races, it’s obvious that Joe Gibbs Racing will be a team to keep an eye on. Denny Hamlin won last Saturday night’s Sprint Unlimited and the second Duel race Thursday night. His teammate, Matt Kenseth, led 31 of the 60 laps in route to victory in the first Duel race.

[Udog]

Game of the Day: Canada vs. Sweden

Canada vs. Sweden (+150, 4.5)

Canada looks to repeat as Olympic champion Sunday as it faces fellow unbeaten Sweden in the gold-medal showdown in Sochi. Both teams used strong defensive efforts to reach the championship match. The Swedes fell behind early but rallied behind Erik Karlsson's game-winner to upend Finland 2-1 in the first semifinal, while Carey Price turned aside 31 shots and Jamie Benn provided all the offense the Canadians would need with a second-period goal in a thrilling 1-0 victory over the rival U.S.

Both teams are dealing with injuries to star players heading into what should be an entertaining title game. The Swedes have had to make do without Detroit Red Wings forward Henrik Zetterberg, who suffered a herniated disk in his back and could be forced to miss significant time once the NHL season resumes next week. The New York Islanders are in the same boat after Canadian forward John Tavares suffered two torn knee ligaments in a victory over Latvia and has already been ruled out for the remainder of the season.

TV: 7 a.m. ET, NBC, CBC

LINE HISTORY: Canada was installed as an early -190 favorite, but has dipped slightly to -182 with the over/under holding steady at 4.5.

INJURY WATCH: Canada - F John Tavares (Out - knee); Sweden - F Henrik Zetterberg (Out - back).

ABOUT TEAM CANADA (5-0-0): Canadian fans have been concerned about their team's inability to convert quality scoring chances - but while Friday's victory may have been close on the scoresheet, supporters had to be happy with the way Canada controlled the play. That has been a theme of the tournament for the Canadians, who aren't blowing teams out but have been the most defensively responsible team in the tournament, having surrendered just three goals in five games. Price is expected to get the assignment against Sweden after shutting down the prolific Americans in the semis.

ABOUT TEAM SWEDEN (5-0-0): The Swedes rolled through Group C action without much resistance, then trounced Slovenia 5-0 in the quarterfinals before getting all they could handle from an energetic Finnish side missing three key players. Sweden eventually wore Finland down - carrying the play over the final two periods and getting the eventual game-winner from Karlsson, who may very well be the best player in the tournament to date. The Swedish power play has been the most potent in the competition and Canada will need to play a disciplined game or risk getting beaten on special teams.

TRENDS:

* Karlsson has a tournament-best eight points (four goals, four assists) while Drew Doughty leads Canada with six points (four goals, two assists).
* Sweden G Henrik Lundqvist is one of only three netminders with more than one shutout in the tournament.
* The Swedes trailed for only one minute, 23 seconds in the entire competition going into their semifinal against Finland.
* Canada has surrendered just one goal in its last 144 minutes, 32 seconds of action.