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I only cap NFL so these will be my last plays this year. Been a good year. Good luck fellas!
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
2* Denver over Seattle
Note: As of Friday this lin is 2-2.5. I am waiting for it to drop before I wager on it.
Note: I have a 16-1 (0.5 units to win 8 units) future on Seattle to win the Super Bowl that I posted on this site last February (see futures tab on home page). I will be locking in a profit by taking Denver for 5.5 units.
The big game is here....let's make some dough! I like the Broncos in this matchup. If you are a straight value bettor there is some value on Sea at 2.5 because my calc line is Denver -1, but in the short term value means very little and it's about matchups (an I think the line comes back closer to 1). I simply don't see how the Seahawks can keep up with the Broncos. When I analyze games I use the body of work but also look at the 5 most recent games because that can often tell you where the team is heading. Let's look at the stats:
Special Teams:
Seattle has a slight edge defensively in the special teams department. Regarding FG's it is about even...both kickers are very good. Seattle's kicker only missed 2 FG's all year and Denver's only missed 1 (and it was 50+ yards). On kick off returns Seattle is averages 21 YPC and Denver 25. In regards to punt returns Seattle averages 11 YPC and Denver 9 YPC. Seattle allows 2 less net yards per punt attempt.
When Denver has the ball:
It's no secret that Denver's offense is great, but I actually think it is underestimated. They average 37.1 PPG vs. teams that have combined to allow 24.2 PPG...that is astounding! They score 10 more PPG than the 2nd scoring team in the NFL. For the year they have averaged 4.1 YPR and 8.3 YPPA (3rd during regular season). Over the last 5 games they are similar (4 YPR and 7.7 YPPA). One of the things that makes them so deadly is they score a TD in the redzone 73% of the time (1st in league). Another factor is they convert 46% of their 3rd downs (2nd during reg season). Seattle's D was actually only 10th in the league allowing 3rd down conversions. No doubt the Seahawks D is for real. They allow only 3.9 YPR and 5.8 YPPA, with similar numbers in their most recent 5 games (3.3, 5.9)...but they haven't encountered an offense like Denvers. Denver's offensive line is one of the best in the league allowing only 20 sacks all year (they are ranked 1st in pass protection by Football Outsiders) and Seattle's defensive line is not their strong suit. They had 44 sacks (10th during reg season) and are ranked 13th vs the run and 8th vs the pass according to Football Outsiders advanced stats. If you give Manning time he will eat you alive. Seattle has had the most INT's in the league (23), some of this is ther ball hawking, but some is luck. While, Manning has only thrown 10 INT's all year. As we know, the team that wins the TO battle covers 77% of the time in the NFL. Also, Denver has been very unluck in the TO department, they are -7 in fumbles (2nd only Det) and fumbles are almost 100% luck. Denver's strength of schedule was easy this year, but they still averaged 13 PPG more than the teams they played allowed all year. Seattle only faced 1 top 10 offense all year (NO) and they may have only allowed 15 PPG, but this is vs teams that have combined to score 22 PPG (7 PPG less).
When Seattle has the ball:
There is all this talk about the Seahawks D, but Denver's D has been playing VERY well lately. For the season they allowed 3.9 YPR (10th) and 7.1 YPPA (15th), but let's look more recently. Over the past 5 games they have allowed only 3.2 YPR (for reference this would have been 2nd during reg season) and 6.2 YPPA (would have been 3rd during reg season)! Seattle averages 4.3 YPR (12th during reg season). But, I think Denver will slow down their run game and force R. Wilson to throw...and I love that! Denver's defensive line is ranked 3rd. Wilson may have averaged 8.4 YPPA during the regular season, but over the last 5 games the averaged an abysmal 6 YPPA...that would be dead last in the NFL during the regular season! I don't see Seattle scoring enough to keep up with Denver.
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
2* Denver over Seattle
Note: As of Friday this lin is 2-2.5. I am waiting for it to drop before I wager on it.
Note: I have a 16-1 (0.5 units to win 8 units) future on Seattle to win the Super Bowl that I posted on this site last February (see futures tab on home page). I will be locking in a profit by taking Denver for 5.5 units.
The big game is here....let's make some dough! I like the Broncos in this matchup. If you are a straight value bettor there is some value on Sea at 2.5 because my calc line is Denver -1, but in the short term value means very little and it's about matchups (an I think the line comes back closer to 1). I simply don't see how the Seahawks can keep up with the Broncos. When I analyze games I use the body of work but also look at the 5 most recent games because that can often tell you where the team is heading. Let's look at the stats:
Special Teams:
Seattle has a slight edge defensively in the special teams department. Regarding FG's it is about even...both kickers are very good. Seattle's kicker only missed 2 FG's all year and Denver's only missed 1 (and it was 50+ yards). On kick off returns Seattle is averages 21 YPC and Denver 25. In regards to punt returns Seattle averages 11 YPC and Denver 9 YPC. Seattle allows 2 less net yards per punt attempt.
When Denver has the ball:
It's no secret that Denver's offense is great, but I actually think it is underestimated. They average 37.1 PPG vs. teams that have combined to allow 24.2 PPG...that is astounding! They score 10 more PPG than the 2nd scoring team in the NFL. For the year they have averaged 4.1 YPR and 8.3 YPPA (3rd during regular season). Over the last 5 games they are similar (4 YPR and 7.7 YPPA). One of the things that makes them so deadly is they score a TD in the redzone 73% of the time (1st in league). Another factor is they convert 46% of their 3rd downs (2nd during reg season). Seattle's D was actually only 10th in the league allowing 3rd down conversions. No doubt the Seahawks D is for real. They allow only 3.9 YPR and 5.8 YPPA, with similar numbers in their most recent 5 games (3.3, 5.9)...but they haven't encountered an offense like Denvers. Denver's offensive line is one of the best in the league allowing only 20 sacks all year (they are ranked 1st in pass protection by Football Outsiders) and Seattle's defensive line is not their strong suit. They had 44 sacks (10th during reg season) and are ranked 13th vs the run and 8th vs the pass according to Football Outsiders advanced stats. If you give Manning time he will eat you alive. Seattle has had the most INT's in the league (23), some of this is ther ball hawking, but some is luck. While, Manning has only thrown 10 INT's all year. As we know, the team that wins the TO battle covers 77% of the time in the NFL. Also, Denver has been very unluck in the TO department, they are -7 in fumbles (2nd only Det) and fumbles are almost 100% luck. Denver's strength of schedule was easy this year, but they still averaged 13 PPG more than the teams they played allowed all year. Seattle only faced 1 top 10 offense all year (NO) and they may have only allowed 15 PPG, but this is vs teams that have combined to score 22 PPG (7 PPG less).
When Seattle has the ball:
There is all this talk about the Seahawks D, but Denver's D has been playing VERY well lately. For the season they allowed 3.9 YPR (10th) and 7.1 YPPA (15th), but let's look more recently. Over the past 5 games they have allowed only 3.2 YPR (for reference this would have been 2nd during reg season) and 6.2 YPPA (would have been 3rd during reg season)! Seattle averages 4.3 YPR (12th during reg season). But, I think Denver will slow down their run game and force R. Wilson to throw...and I love that! Denver's defensive line is ranked 3rd. Wilson may have averaged 8.4 YPPA during the regular season, but over the last 5 games the averaged an abysmal 6 YPPA...that would be dead last in the NFL during the regular season! I don't see Seattle scoring enough to keep up with Denver.
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