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Denver vs. NE
I grabbed NE +7 the second it opened because I knew that it would drop and it would be best number available, but now that it is gone I would only lean NE at +6 or higher. I don't bet for action, I bet for money and this line is accurate at this point. You can't lay -110 on a coin flip or you will get buried in the long run. The Pats are 9th in YPR and face a Denver D that was 10th. In the air, Brady hasn't had the years he has in the past (17th in YPPA). Denver's D is 15th in YPPA. Denver's run game is 20th in YPR v NE's rush D that is 24th. Obviously, Manning is awesome but NE's pass D isn't too bad (13th in YPPA allowed). Of the 14 games Denver has won, 13 were by 7+, but their SOS was 2nd easiest in the league (the Patriots was 18th). I think the injury of Denvery's DB is significant with Jammer now having to start. Denver has been playing better than NE as of late (NE has benefited from a great TO ratio in recent weeks). NE consistently outplays their numbers so it is hard to go against them. I would lean at NE at +6 or better.
Seattle vs. SF
This line is spot on at 3.5. I have these two teams equal and give SEA 3.5 for home field advantage. Analyzing the most recent games SF is
playing much better. If i trusted Kaepernick I would be on SF at +3.5, but I don't. He relies on his athleticism and is not a good decision maker from the pocket. The team that wins the TO battle covers 77% in the NFL, so if Kaep does throw a couple picks it is lights out vs a Seattle team that is so good. If Kaep doesn't throw a pick I think SF covers the 3.5...but I simply can't trust him.
I grabbed NE +7 the second it opened because I knew that it would drop and it would be best number available, but now that it is gone I would only lean NE at +6 or higher. I don't bet for action, I bet for money and this line is accurate at this point. You can't lay -110 on a coin flip or you will get buried in the long run. The Pats are 9th in YPR and face a Denver D that was 10th. In the air, Brady hasn't had the years he has in the past (17th in YPPA). Denver's D is 15th in YPPA. Denver's run game is 20th in YPR v NE's rush D that is 24th. Obviously, Manning is awesome but NE's pass D isn't too bad (13th in YPPA allowed). Of the 14 games Denver has won, 13 were by 7+, but their SOS was 2nd easiest in the league (the Patriots was 18th). I think the injury of Denvery's DB is significant with Jammer now having to start. Denver has been playing better than NE as of late (NE has benefited from a great TO ratio in recent weeks). NE consistently outplays their numbers so it is hard to go against them. I would lean at NE at +6 or better.
Seattle vs. SF
This line is spot on at 3.5. I have these two teams equal and give SEA 3.5 for home field advantage. Analyzing the most recent games SF is
playing much better. If i trusted Kaepernick I would be on SF at +3.5, but I don't. He relies on his athleticism and is not a good decision maker from the pocket. The team that wins the TO battle covers 77% in the NFL, so if Kaep does throw a couple picks it is lights out vs a Seattle team that is so good. If Kaep doesn't throw a pick I think SF covers the 3.5...but I simply can't trust him.
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