Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 1/16 (NFL, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, Misc.)

[Udog]

NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, January 16

Brooklyn at Atlanta, 3:05 ET
Brooklyn: 3-6 ATS vs. Atlanta
Atlanta: 10-2 ATS off road loss

New York at Indiana, 7:05 ET
New York: 21-9 Under after winning three of last four games
Indiana: 25-12 ATS after home win by 10 or more points

OKC at Houston, 9:35 ET
OKC: 11-2 Over away after playing as an underdog
Houston: 29-12 at home off an away division win

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships

San Francisco at Seattle
The 49ers head to Seattle for the NFC Championship carrying a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points. San Francisco is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 19

Game 301-302: New England at Denver (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 141.602; Denver 141.678
Dunkel Line: Even; 59
Vegas Line: Denver by 4 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: New England (+4 1/2); Over

Game 303-304: San Francisco at Seattle (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 142.597; Seattle 142.834
Dunkel Line: Even; 35
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3 1/2); Under




NFL
Long Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 19

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NEW ENGLAND (13 - 4) at DENVER (14 - 3) - 1/19/2014, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 80-47 ATS (+28.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 160-120 ATS (+28.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against AFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 98-71 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 69-44 ATS (+20.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (14 - 4) at SEATTLE (14 - 3) - 1/19/2014, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 5-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 19

New England at Denver, 3:00 ET
New England: 7-0 ATS against AFC West division opponents
Denver: 17-4 OVER after leading their last 3 games by 7+ points at the half

San Francisco at Seattle, 6:30 ET
San Francisco: 10-2 OVER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better
Seattle: 11-3 ATS revenging a loss against opponent




NFL

Conference Championships

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Trend Report
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3:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 9 games when playing on the road against Denver
New England is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games on the road
Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 9 games when playing at home against New England

6:30 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. SEATTLE
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home


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[Udog]

NFL Conference Championships: Hot bets and moving odds

All odds current as of 11 a.m. ET, Jan. 16.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-5.5, 56)

Sure, it’s Peyton Manning squaring off against Tom Brady again. That’s the angle everybody is all over and it’s understandable considering Brady is 10-4 straight up and 7-5-2 against the spread in head-to-head matchups with Manning. But this game goes well beyond Manning vs. Brady. This is the type of game that can hammer books if they don’t have the right number.

At Sunday evening’s open, Sports Interaction had Denver set as a 6-point favorite, just like a pile of other online shops. That number didn’t even hold for 30 minutes before dropping to 5.5 and was all the way down to 4.5 by Monday morning. It bounced between 4.5 and 5 for a couple of days before jumping back up to 6 Wednesday evening. Currently, it’s holding at Denver -5.5, but where it ends up by kickoff is anyone’s guess. As for the total, it opened at 54.5 and has climbing ever since. With each of the last four matchups between these two teams topping the total, that was to be expected. The over/under is at 56 as of Thursday.

Where the action is: We’re seeing about 73 percent of our action coming in on the Patriots at +5.5.


San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 39.5)

From a bookie’s standpoint, there isn’t much you can do with this game. The Seahawks and 49ers were easily the top teams in the NFC this season and are basically mirror images of each other. With home-field advantage, the Seahawks opened as 3-point favorites and that line hasn’t budged at Sports Interaction. The two clubs have split their last four meetings outright, but the Seahawks have covered the number in each of those contests.

The total came out at 40 points and dipped to 39.5 within minutes. Since then it’s bounced around from 39.5 and 40, currently sitting at 39.5. With four of the last five meetings playing below the total, we could see this number drop further, especially if weather becomes a factor on Sunday.

Where the action is: San Francisco bettors are accounting for 59 percent of our action at +3. This one should end up with a relatively even split between the two teams.

[Udog]

Inside the Stats: Arizona, Xavier, Creighton streaking

All results are ATS (Against The Spread) through January 15, unless noted otherwise.

Hot, Hot, Hot

Pay close attention to teams that are streaking ATS. Streaks can be a gravy train to the winner’s circle. Here is a list teams taking the court this weekend riding hot streaks (minimum seven results):

Air Force 7-1
Arizona 6-1
Creighton 8-1
Harvard 7-1
Kansas State 7-1
Michigan State 7-1
Xavier 8-0


Not, Not, Not

Here is a list teams taking the court this weekend riding cold ATS streaks (minimum seven results):

Akron 1-6
Boston College 1-8
Drexel 1-8
LSU 1-7-1
Marquette 1-6
Marshall 1-6
Middle Tennessee State 1-6
North Carolina 1-6
Oregon 1-6
Pen State 0-7
South Alabama 1-8
St. Johns 1-6
Texas State 1-6


Top Dogs

According to our database, these have been the best underdogs in all games played versus fellow Division-1 foes:

Dayton 4-0
Houston 5-1
Kent State 4-0
Utah 4-0
Xavier 4-0

The worst underdogs this season have been:

Boston College 1-6
Colorado State 1-5
LaSalle 0-4
Northwestern 1-8
South Alabama 1-8
Texas State 1-7
Valparaiso 1-5


Chalk Talk

According to our database, these have been the best favorites in all games played versus fellow Division-1 foes:

Harvard 7-0-1
Pacific 6-1
Texas Tech 4-0

The worst favorites this season have been:

Bradley 0-4-1
Loyola Chicago 0-6
Notre Dame 1-7-1


Defense Dominates

Once again here is a list of the Top 5 college hoops teams on the defensive front, in Defensive Field Goal percentage and Rebound Margin. Look to ‘play on’ these teams in either revenge or underdog roles:

Defensive Field Goal Percentage:

1. Clemson 35.9
2. Florida State 36.3
3. SMU 36.5
4. Iowa 36.8
5. Arizona 37.1

Rebounding Margin:

1. Quinnipiac +13.6
2. Kentucky +13.6
3. Indiana +12.2
4. UAB +12.1
5. Arizona +11.9

Here is a list of the Top 5 NBA defensive teams:

Scoring Defense:

1. Pacers 88.1
2. Bulls 91.9
3. Raptors 96.4
4. Spurs 96.4
5. Bobcats 96.6

Rebounding Margin:

1. Thunder +5.1
2. Pacers +4.5
3. Warriors +4.1
4. Trailblazers +3.6
5. Grizzlies +3.5


Turn Up The Heat

After winning back-to-back NBA championships, the Miami Heat’s glory days have turned into gory ways this season.

Consider: in games versus losing teams last season Miami was 43-4 SU and 29-18 ATS.

This season they are 16-9 SU and 10-15 ATS against the same, including 0-8 ATS in games in which their losing opponent is off a win.

After dropping its third game in a row for the first time this campaign in a loss at Washington (after partying with the President at the White House) this past Wednesday, it’s time for the Heat to turn it up if they wish to complete a three-peat.


Stat Of The Week

The Sacramento Kings are 15-1 OVER away in games versus Southwest Division opponents (Friday at Memphis).

[Udog]

NHL
Short Sheet

Thursday, January 16

Nashville at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
Nashville: 3-15 playing third game in five days
Philadelphia: 19-6 Over off an away win

Detroit at NY Rangers, 7:05 ET
Detroit: 8-3 as an away underdog
NY Rangers: 7-13 as home favorite of -200 or less

Montreal at Ottawa, 7:35 ET
Montreal: 6-0 away after losing 2 of last 3 games
Ottawa: 6-11 as home favorites

NY Islanders at Tampa Bay, 7:35 ET
NY Islanders: 2-11 off a road loss
Tampa Bay: 11-4 after playing 2 straight road games

San Jose at Florida, 7:35 ET
San Jose: 5-0 Under off a road win by 1 goal
Florida: 12-3 Under at home vs. non-conference games

LA at St. Louis, 8:05 ET
LA: 0-8 away after a division game
St. Louis: 18-4 after playing a home game

Edminton at Minnesota, 8:05 ET
Edminton: 10-31 as an underdog
Minnesota: 9-1 at home after a non-conference game

Bsoton at Dalas, 8:35 ET
Bsoton: 14-3 after a division game
Dallas: 3-14 vs. teams that have 29 or more shots on goal per game

New Jersey at Colorado, 9:05 ET
New Jersey: 29-26 as road dogs
Colorado: 5-11 at home vs. teams that score less than 2.4 goals per game

Vancouver at Phoenix, 9:05 ET
Vancouver: 1-10 in second half of the season
Phoenix:20-11 after playing a game with 3 or few goals scored

Winnipeg at Calgaruy, 9:05 ET
Winnipeg: 8-3 after losing 4 of last 5 games
Calgary: 2-11 after losing 5 of last 6 games




NHL

Thursday, January 16

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Kings at Blues: What bettors need to know
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Los Angeles Kings at St. Louis Blues (-137, 5)

Goals are expected to be at a premium when the St. Louis Blues host the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday night in a matchup of the league's top two defensive clubs. St. Louis has surrendered two or fewer goals in eight consecutive games during its current 8-1-0 stretch to climb within two points of Central Division-leading Chicago with two games in hand. The Blues ended a five-game losing streak in the series (playoffs included) with a 5-0 thrashing of the visiting Kings on Jan. 2.

Los Angeles enters a critical portion of its schedule while attempting to win back-to-back games for the first time since a three-game run from Dec. 17-21. The Kings will play five straight and seven of their next eight contests on the road, with the only home game during that span coming against league-best Anaheim. Los Angeles is coming off a brawl-filled 1-0 win over Vancouver behind Jonathan Quick's 27th career shutout - his first since returning from a 24-game injury absence.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBC Sports, TSN2

LINE: The Blues opened 143 and are now -137.

ABOUT THE KINGS (28-14-5): With Quick healthy, Los Angeles made a move to address its cluttered goaltending situation by trading Ben Scrivens to Edmonton in exchange for a third-round pick in this year's draft. Scrivens, who made 10 consecutive starts after Quick was injured and went 7-5-4 with a 1.97 goals-against average in 19 games this season, could see more playing time after the Oilers dealt away goatender Devan Dubnyk. Rookie Martin Jones, the second netminder in league history to win his first eight starts, was recalled from Manchester of the American Hockey League on Wednesday.

ABOUT THE BLUES (32-8-5): Brian Elliott had ripped off seven straight wins, including a 30-save shutout against the Kings two weeks ago, before a 2-1 defeat in Vancouver last Friday. Still, coach Ken Hitchcock is opting to go with Jaroslov Halak in net versus Los Angeles and will start Elliott in Saturday's showdown against visiting Anaheim. "I'm not sure," Hitchcock said of his reasoning for the netminder rotation. "Brian has played well, Jaro has played really well, both guys deserve to keep playing so we're going to keep playing both guys."

TRENDS:

* Home team is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Kings are 0-6 in their last six vs. Central.
* Kings are 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.
* Blues are 4-1 in their last five vs. Pacific.

OVERTIME:

1. St. Louis allowed a power-play goal in Tuesday's 2-1 win over Phoenix, its only one in 21 chances over the past seven games.

2. Kings D Matt Greene with not accompany the team on the road trip after suffering an upper-body injury in a fight Monday night.

3. Los Angeles has allowed a league-low 96 goals while the Blues are next with 100.


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[Udog]

NCAAB

Thursday, January 16

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Arizona State at Arizona: What bettors need to know
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Arizona State Sun Devils at Arizona Wildcats (-11.5)

Top-ranked Arizona looks to remain unbeaten Thursday when the Wildcats host in-state rival Arizona State, which is coming off a 15-point loss at UCLA. While Arizona is off to the best start in school history, the Sun Devils have been plagued by inconsistent play. Point guard Jahii Carson led Arizona State to a 7-1 start, but the 5-10 sophomore has shot 34.8 percent from the field and averaged 14.4 points and 1.8 assists over the last five games.

Carson is hoping to bounce back from a dismal effort against UCLA last Sunday, when he scored nine points on 4-of-17 shooting in 30 minutes. “(Carson) didn’t play anywhere near his capability and that certainly has a tremendous impact on our team because he’s such a key player for us,” coach Herb Sendek told reporters. The Sun Devils need a huge game from Carson against Arizona, which ranks fourth nationally in scoring defense (56 points per game) while shooting 48.7 percent from the field.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1

LINE: The Wildcats opened as 11.5-point home faves.

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (13-4, 2-2 Pac-12): With Carson drawing most of the media attention, it’s easy to overlook the impact of guard Jermaine Marshall, who is the team’s second-leading scorer (15.6) while shooting 49.2 percent. “He’s one of our conference’s best guards,” Arizona coach Sean Miller told reporters. “Statistically speaking, when Arizona State’s at their best he seems to have a big night. He’s a kid who can score. Not just a shooter but somebody who can score.” The frontline is led by 7-2 center Jordan Bachynski, who has nine double-doubles this season.

ABOUT ARIZONA (17-0, 4-0): Freshman forward Aaron Gordon, named as the USA Basketball Male Athlete of the Year earlier this week, leads a dominant frontcourt that includes Brandon Ashley, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and 7-foot center Kaleb Tarczewski. Versatile guard Nick Johnson, who has averaged 13.8 points while shooting 51.4 percent in four career games against the Sun Devils, needs eight points to become the 48th member of Arizona’s 1,000-point club. Johnson plays three different positions and leads the Arizona defense, which has held opponents to 28 percent shooting from beyond the arc.

TRENDS:

* Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six Thursday games.
* Sun Devils are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

TIP-INS:

1. Arizona leads the all-time series 144-80, including a 5-1 mark over the past six games.

2. Arizona State G Shaquielle McKissic is averaging 12.3 points and six rebounds over the past eight games.

3. The Wildcats are 31-7 in Pac-12 games at the McKale Center under Miller.


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[Udog]

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Thursday, January 16

Louisville: 8-0 ATS off a home win vs. conference opponent

Vanderbilt: 0-6 ATS at home vs. teams with winning percentage of 80% or better

UConn: 3-14 ATS after 2 or more SU wins

Colorado: 16-6 ATS as home dog of 3 or less points

Ohio State: 22-10 ATS off a SU favorite conference loss

Pepperdine: 0-8 ATS at home after 3 games as road dog

Santa Clara: 5-15 ATS at home off an ATS loss

Utah: 14-3 ATS at home off a 3 or less point loss

Cal Davis: 3-10 ATS in all games this year

Long Beach State: 20-6 ATS away after a game with 165 or more points scored