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**Udog** · 01-10-2014, 08:53 AM

NFL Divisional Weekend opening lines

With Wildcard Weekend in the books, next week's NFL Divisional Weekend matchups are set and early lines are already out.

The San Diego Chargers' reward for their impressive 27-10 road win in Cincinnati is a trip to Denver to face the Broncos. The Broncos are listed as early 10-point faves in what will be the third time they play each other this season. Back in Week 10 the Broncos covered a 7-point spread in San Diego winning 28-20, but the Chargers returned serve by going into Denver five weeks later and stealing a 27-20 victory in a game where they were 10-point dogs.

The Patriots opened as 7.5-point home faves as they welcome the Colts and Andrew Luck to Gillette Stadium, where New England went 6-2 ATS this season. The Colts earned the trip to New England with their improbable 45-44 comeback win over Kansas City Saturday. This is the first time these two teams will face each other this season.

In the Saturday NFC matchup The New Orleans Saints travel to Seattle to take on the top seeded Seahawks who opened as 8-point home faves. This will be a rematch of a Week 13 game where the Seahawks manhandled the Saints 34-7 in Seattle on Monday Night Football and obliterated the 6.5 point spread. The Saints were 1-7 ATS on the road this season, but managed to claim their franchise's first ever road playoff win Saturday in Philadelphia.

In a rematch in what might have been the game of the year in the NFL, The San Francisco 49ers take on the Panthers in Carolina. This game has opened as a Pick'em, which seems appropriate seeing as both teams love to run the ball, play great defense and have a dynamic quarterback. The first meeting was the Panthers' breaking out party of sorts, as they bruised their way to 10-9 victory at Candlestick Park.

**Udog** · 01-10-2014, 08:53 AM

NFL line watch: Keep an eye on Chargers-Broncos total

Spread to bet now

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (+2)

After winning last week in Lambeau Field, the 49ers will be backed by the public this week.

That public money is going to go up against the sharp, professional money as those bettors will be on the underdog in this game.

San Francisco is a known commodity with the public after playing in the Super Bowl last season. The 49ers also have revenge in this game after losing at home 10-9 to Carolina as 6-point favorites earlier this season. Revenge is a strong betting angle for public bettors.

There’s also liability for the sportsbooks with teasers in this game, especially with the current line of Panthers +2. They make a strong teaser bet, especially with the total low at 42. The sportsbooks want to get this line down to at least 1 for that reason, and since we expect the sharp money to be on the underdog, we suggest betting Carolina now as the current number will be gone soon.

Spread to wait on

Indianapolis Colts (+7) at New England Patriots

The world was against Indianapolis in their game against Kansas City last week.

The Colts went from a 2.5-point favorite to a 2.5-point underdog at one point in the betting last week. The public and sharps were both on the Chiefs as a small underdog and the big money move showed dislike for the Colts.

The way the game played out swayed nobody’s opinion as the Colts trailed 38-10 in the second half. While they wasted all their energy, the Patriots were sitting at home and getting rest.

Some sportsbooks have already moved this line to New England -7.5 and it will most likely go higher once the public starts betting. If you like the Colts in this game wait until right before kick off as the best number will be available then.

Total to watch

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (54.5)

It will be interesting to see what the bettors do with the total on this game, especially since this is the third meeting of the season between San Diego and Denver.

The oddsmakers opened this total high at 54.5, which is the highest of the four games this weekend. The first game in San Diego had 48 points scored and the second meeting in Denver had 47 points scored.

San Diego has played 14 of their 17 games Under 55 points and two of those Overs came in Weeks 1 and 2. So over their last 15 games, the Chargers are 14-1 to the Under based on the posted total.

Denver went 10-6 to the Over based on the current total with two of those Unders coming against the Chargers. In Denver’s home playoff game last year, the Broncos and Ravens combined to score 73 points.

Overall, it’s hard to play Denver games Under the total. But the numbers suggest that’s the way to play this game. Some sportsbooks have moved the total to 55, so we’ll see which way the money moves this total come Sunday afternoon.

**Udog** · 01-10-2014, 08:53 AM

NFL Divisional Weekend trends: Bye might not mean Super Bowl

Once again, after expanding its playoff format to 12 teams in 1990, the NFL left the door wide open to the possibilities of a Wild Card team running the table and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

Since the Wild Card system began in 1970, only 10 wild card teams have advanced all the way to the Super Bowl. Of those, only six won the Super Bowl. And of those 10 wild card teams, only four teams managed to win three games on the road to make it to the Super Bowl - the last three of whom captured the crown.

In fact, five of the last seven Super Bowl champions have played in the first round of the playoffs, including the Baltimore Ravens last season.

Will the trend continue this season or will the top seeded teams have their say? And speaking of top ranked teams, the No. 1 seed from the NFC has not won a Super Bowl since 1999.

It’s important to remember that 39 of the last 47 Super Bowl winners have owned a Top 10 ranked defense. (Are you listening Carolina, New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle?)

Remember, it’s not always the best team that wins in the NFL playoffs… it’s the hottest.

Before we crown anyone just yet, let’s first check a few Divisional Round angles in the NFL playoffs that are noteworthy. All results are since 1990 and are ATS (Against The Spread), unless noted otherwise.

Bye And Large Top Seeds Up To Speed

No. 1 seeds enjoy the luxury of not only hosting a game in this round but also play with an added week of rest.

For the most part these teams have met with modicum of success, going 67-25 SU and 48-42-2 ATS in this role.

The best the NFC has to offer has gone 37-9 SU and 28-17-1 ATS, including 22-8-1 ATS as favorites of 6 or more points. The NFC spotlight shines on top-seeded Seattle this Saturday.

While not up to par with the NFC, top seeds from the AFC have gone 30-16 SU and 20-25-1 ATS, including 7-2 SU and ATS when facing a foe off a Wild Card round spread win of more than 17 points. No. 1 seed Denver will look to improve on those numbers when they host division rival San Diego on Sunday.

Success Breeds Success

Speaking of the added benefit of an extra week to prepare this time of the year, rested hosts in this round that enjoyed success last season use that experience to their advantage.

That’s confirmed by the fact that teams that won 11 or more games last year are 32-6 SU and 24-13-1-1 ATS at home with a week to prepare in Divisional Round contests.

Denver, New England and Seattle all fit the bill this season, rather cautiously though as teams in this role are just 8-4 SU and 4-8 ATS the last seven years.

On the flip side, teams that were losing teams last years (seven or fewer wins) are just 4-24 SU and 11-16-1 ATS in this round, including 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS when playing off an upset, underdog win.

New Orleans and San Diego look to oblige this week.

Clint Eastwood Says

Here’s a brief capsule of this year’s Divisional Round combatants along with some relevant Good, Bad and Ugly trends…

New Orleans at Seattle (-8, 47.5)
Good: Seahawks 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS home behind QB Russell Wilson
Bad: Saints 1-5 SU and ATS away all-time in the playoffs
Ugly: Seahawks 0-3 SU and ATS vs. Saints when New Orleans off SU and ATS win

Indianapolis at New England (-7.5, 53)
Good: Colts QB Andrew Luck 6-1 SU and ATS as a dog vs. greater than .667 opp
Bad: Visiting team 5-13 ATS in Colts postseason games
Ugly: Pats QB Tom Brady 0-6 ATS playoffs w/rest vs. opp off back-to-back wins

San Francisco at Carolina (+2, 42)
Good: Niners QB Colin Kaepernick 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS away vs. non div opp
Bad: Playoff road favorites off playoff road favorite win are 1-3 ATS
Ugly: Niners are 3-15 ATS all-time vs. Panthers, 0-5 ATS last five away

San Diego at Denver (-10, 54.5)
Good: Chargers QB Phillip Rivers 4-1 ATS as a playoff dog
Bad: Broncos 2-6 SU and ATS last eight playoff games
Ugly: Broncos QB Peyton Manning 1-6 ATS home favorite vs. San Diego

Highway Blues

Life on the road for Wild Card round teams who won at home has been rocky at best, especially if those who grabbed the cash as well.

These highwaymen are just 13-37 SU and 18-30-2 ATS in this role against well-rested higher-seeded foes.

And if these same Wild Card winners take to the road against .750 or less opponents, they dip to a filthy 3-24 SU and 8-18-1 ATS in these affairs.

Indianapolis will try its best to avoid becoming road kill this week.

Stat Of The Week

In NFL Divisional Round playoff game history since 1990, there have been only two home underdogs. They both won the game straight up.

**Udog** · 01-10-2014, 08:54 AM

NFL mid-week line moves: NFC Divisional Round action report

Odds for this weekend’s NFL Divisional Round matchups have been on the board since the Wild Card games wound down. That’s more than enough time for the betting public and wiseguys to have their say.

We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this weekend’s NFC playoff games and where those odds could end up come kickoff.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks - Open: -9.5, Move: -7, Move: -8, Move: -7.5

Some books banked on the Seahawks' dominance over the Saints in Week 13 – a 34-7 win on Monday Night Football – and opened Seattle as big as 9.5-point favorites. Other shops, like CarbonSports.ag, posted this game closer to the current number.

They opened the Seahawks -7 and instantly took big money to move the line to -8 on Saturday night. Following that adjustment, Saints money showed at the increased spread and trimmed the line to Seattle -7.5

“Most of that money that bet the Saints +8 was recreational and there’s no question in my mind, the public is on the Saints and that’s one of the reasons why we opened Seahawks -7,” Stewart tells Covers. “We expected public money to back the dog but we couldn’t ignore the sharp action that hammered the Seahawks -7. Bottom line, we’re dealing a great line at 7.5 and I very much doubt we’ll move off that number.”

The total for this NFC Divisional Round matchup has dropped as many as two points, with some markets coming down from 48.5 to 46.5. Sharp money grabbed the Under early on and the forecast for Seattle is calling for a 90 percent chance of rain showers.

“I do believe 46.5 is as low as we’ll go on this total, but we’re still four days out and all weather reports at this time indicate rain but it’s not going to be cold and no wind,” says Stewart.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers – Open: Pick, Move: +2.5, Move: +1

Oddsmakers were on the fence about this NFC Divisional battle, setting Sunday’s game at a pick’em. Carolina edged San Francisco 10-9 on the road back in Week 10 but early money pounced on the red-hot Niners, driving the spread as high as Carolina +2.5 before Panthers money took the home team plus the points.

“I think our sharps realized this game was never going to get to 49ers -3 – like it did versus the Packers - and they decided to take the +2.5 while it was still there,” says Stewart. “This is a situation where sharps and the public are on opposite sides. So far 75 percent of the money is on the 49ers but we very much like our position and we’ll have no problem going into this game needing the dog.”

The total for Sunday’s game has come down as much as one point from 43 to 42 at some books. Early money sided with the Over at CarbonSports.ag, but sharp action forced the books hand, dropping the number to 42.5. The extended forecast for Carolina is calling for 27 percent chance of rain with winds getting up to 7 mph.

“I could see us eventually going to 42 as these are two very good defensive teams but more importantly, both offenses like to run the ball and eat up the clock,” says Stewart. “We’ve booked this total so far dead even so at this time, no need to move this total unless of course we see more sharp action betting us Under.”

**Udog** · 01-10-2014, 08:54 AM

NFL mid-week line moves: AFC Divisional Round action report

Odds for this weekend’s NFL Divisional Round matchups have been on the board since the Wild Card games wound down. That’s more than enough time for the betting public and wiseguys to have their say.

We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this weekend’s AFC playoff games and where those odds could end up come kickoff.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots – Open: -7.5, Move: -7

The comeback Colts drew the early money for this first of two AFC Divisional Round games, first forcing an adjustment to the juice then a half-point move from 7.5 to Patriots -7. The key number is getting the job done, with bettors split on this Saturday showdown.

“Since going to -7, we’ve seen great two-way action at that number and unless a sharp group bets us this game, we won’t be moving off the key number of seven,” Stewart tells Covers.

As for the total for Saturday’s game in New England, most shops are dealing a number between 53.5 and 52.5 points. According to Stewart, early money took the Over and bumped their total from 52.5 to 53.5.

“So far, 75 percent of the action is on the Over and it’s understandable why the public is betting it Over, when you consider the Colts not only scored 45 points in last week’s playoff game, but more importantly their defense gave up 44 points and over 500 offensive yards to the Chiefs,” he says. “One can’t help but look at this game versus the Pats and think Over.”

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos – Open: -10.5, Move: -9

This will be the third meeting between the Bolts and the Broncos this season, with the teams splitting wins on the road. Early sharp money marched in on San Diego and forced an initial move to Denver -9.5 and the public followed suit, jumping on the upstart Chargers. That has kept books busy juggling the juice on this AFC West rematch. CarbonSports.ag is currently dealing San Diego +9.5 (-120).

“At this point, we’re reluctant to go to Broncos -9 or even down to -8.5, because that would allow for all our bettors to tease the Broncos down to below the key number of three and that’s a concern for us,” says Stewart, who mentions that seven of a possible eight outcomes on teasers hit during the Wild Card Weekend. “While we are concerned about going down to -9 or 8.5, if the straight action keeps backing the dog in this one we’ll eventually get there.”

As for Sunday’s AFC total, books hung the number high, with some markets posting the total at 56 points trying to protect from Broncos bettors who love to take their side and the Over. Under money has dropped the Over/Under as low as 54.5, as of Wednesday afternoon. The forecast for Denver is calling for a slight chance of snow and temperatures in the low 40s.

“So far, 60 percent of the early action is on the Under but that’s of little concern because I know by game time we’re going to need this game under as the public gets more involved over the weekend,” says Stewart. “Also, being the last game of the weekend, I have a feeling we’ll have a ton of parlay liability tied to the Over and that liability will outweigh any straight bet exposure."

**Udog** · 01-10-2014, 08:54 AM

Capping NFL rematches: What to keep, throw away for the Divisional Round

Another week, another round in the NFL Playoffs and another slate of three rematches from the regular season as Wild Card Weekend breaks way into the AFC and NFC Divisional Playoffs.

Once again, we will be looking at what to keep from the previous meeting and what to throw away as team collide for a second time this weekend.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 46.5)

Original meeting: 34-7 Seattle (Week 13)

What to keep: Seattle will have homefield advantage in this game, a place where they are 7-1 straight up and a spot in which the Saints struggle with their well known problems of playing outdoors beyond the Superdome. The Seahawks are just 5-3 at home ATS, but even with a road win over the Eagles in the Wild Card it is hard to trust a Saints team that is 2-7 ATS on the road.

What to throw away: New Orleans had just 44 yards rushing in its Week 13 loss at Seattle, a number that will likely improve after the Saints rushed for 185 yards in their win over the Eagles. If New Orleans can get some yardage on the ground and open up spots in the Seahakws coverage for Drew Brees with the secondary being forced to commit to the run, this should be a different game than the blowout we were treated to in the regular season.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (Pick, 42)

Original meeting: 10-9 Panthers (Week 10)

What to keep: Both of these teams are built from defense and it was evident during their Week 10 clash when they failed to combine for more than 20 points in one of the lowest scoring matchups of 2013. Carolina gives up 15.1 points per game while the 49ers aren't too far off allowing just 17.2. It was no surprise that their original meeting was a drag em' out, low-scoring affair, and this is a game that once again could be reminding us all of when NFL playoff games were won with defense.

What to throw away: Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree were both non-factors in the Panthers' 10-9 win in Week 10. Davis left the game early from concussion and Crabtree has recently returned to peak form after being injured at the start of the regular season. Both were big contributors in the Niners road win in Lambeau with Crabtree catching eight passes for 125 yards and Vernon Davis hauling in a TD pass. If those two can continue to produce, the Niners will likely have a higher chance of success against a stingy Panthers defense.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-10, 54.5)

First meeting: 28-20 Denver (Week 10)
Second meeting: 27-20 Chargers (Week 15)

What to keep: Phillip Rivers can seemingly do no wrong after missing the playoffs in 2012. The QB, who has had to shake the "Choker" label more than a few times, has rattled off big wins against top caliber opponents all season. Sweeping the Kansas City Chiefs and beating the Indianapolis Colts this season, the Chargers have shown up when playing top teams during the regular season, and showed up again last week in their win over the Cincinnati Bengals. They defeated the Broncos on the road and they only lost by one score in their loss to Peyton Manning at home. If their previous encounters are any indication this game should be decided by single digits based on the numbers.

What to throw away: Denver's rushing game was non-existent in their loss as the Broncos could only muster 18 rushing yards in their last meeting. Denver manages 117 rushing yards per game so expect that trend to reverse, especially with a rested offensive line/backfield that is motivated to help Manning lead the Broncos to redemption after their shocking upset to the Ravens in this game last season at home.

**Udog** · 01-10-2014, 08:55 AM

NFL Divisional betting preview: Hot bets and moving odds

All odds current as of 11 a.m. ET, Jan. 9.

Saturday, Jan. 11.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 47)

Even after the Saints earned a big road win at Philadelphia last week, they aren’t getting much love against the Seahawks. Drew Brees struggled to get much going against Philadelphia’s pass defense and finished with 250 passing yards to go along with one touchdown and two interceptions. Now the Saints face a Seahawks club that is 7-1 at home and owns the top total defense, scoring defense and passing defense in the NFL. So, it’s no surprise that the total has dropped from 48.5 at the open to 47 now.

Where the action is: The Saints are seeing 64 percent of Sports Interaction's bets as 8-point road underdogs.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7, 52.5)

It may not be pretty, but the Indianapolis Colts continue to find ways to win. Last week it was Andrew Luck’s fumble recovery that pushed them past the Kansas City Chiefs. This week they may need some more luck against the Pats. Although the Colts have proven they can keep pace on the scoreboard, last week’s defensive performance against the Chiefs is a big concern. The Colts allowed Alex Smith to throw for almost 400 yards with four touchdowns with star running back Jamaal Charles on the sideline. You have to think Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are licking their chops.

Where the action is: The Pats opened as 7.5-point favorites but that line has dropped to -7 with solid support for the Colts coming in. About 70 percent of our bets are currently backing Indy at +7.

Sunday, Jan. 12

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (+1, 42)

Now we’ll get to see what the Panthers are made of. They come into this game as the hottest team in the league with just one loss on their record after starting the season 1-3. They also dropped the 49ers 10-9 in San Francisco back in Week 10, sacking quarterback Colin Kaepernick six times in the process. Still, the 49ers are coming on strong as well and earned a lot of toughness points last week by beating the Packers in frigid Lambeau Field. With a couple of big-play quarterbacks squaring off, this one might come down to who breaks the biggest play when his team needs it most.

Where the action is: This line is bouncing around all over the place. The Panthers opened as 2-point home dogs but the game then moved to a pick ‘em. Now Carolina sits as a 1-point underdog and the total has dropped from 43 at the open to 42. About 61 percent of Sports Interaction bettors are siding with San Francisco.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 54)

A lot of bettors made a pile of money this year betting the Broncos and the over, but now that we’re in the playoffs, betting habits have changed. San Diego has already beaten Denver once this season and has won five straight, covering the number in four of those contests. That alone seems to be enough to sway a good portion of our betting public, even with Peyton Manning on the other side. The Broncos remain +237 Super Bowl favorites.

Where the action is: This number opened at Denver -10 and then dipped to -9.5 not long after. The total has dropped from 55 to 54. As of noon Thursday, 65 percent of our bets are coming in on the underdog Chargers at +9.5.

**Udog** · 01-10-2014, 08:55 AM

NFL weather report: An early look at Divisional Weekend

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 46.5)
There is a 90 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the mid 40s. There will be a 15 mph wind blowing towards the Northeastern corner of the field.

Indianapolis Cots at New England Patriots (-7.5, 52)
There is a 57 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the mid 40s. There will be a 12 mph wind blowing towards the North end zone.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (Pick'em, 42)
There is a 54 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the mid 50s. There will be a seven mph wind blowing across the field.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 54)
There is a 14 percent chance of snow with temperatures in the low 40s. There will be a seven mph wind blowing across the field.

**Udog** · 01-10-2014, 08:57 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Division round

Indianapolis at New England
The Colts head to New England after a 45-44 win over Kansas City in the Wild Card round and carrying a 9-0 ATS record in their last 9 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Indianapolis is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+7 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 11

Game 111-112: New Orleans at Seattle (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 134.432; Seattle 146.570
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 12; 50
Vegas Line: Seattle by 8; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-8); Over

Game 113-114: Indianapolis at New England (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 137.116; New England 137.129
Dunkel Line: Even; 48
Vegas Line: New England by 7 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+7 1/2); Under

SUNDAY, JANUARY 12

Game 115-116: San Francisco at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 139.663; Carolina 140.790
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1; 46
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+2); Over

Game 117-118: San Diego at Denver (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 142.848; Denver 140.518
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Denver by 10; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+10); Under

NFL
Long Sheet

Division Round

Saturday, January 11

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NEW ORLEANS (12 - 5) at SEATTLE (13 - 3) - 1/11/2014, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 57-83 ATS (-34.3 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (12 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 4) - 1/11/2014, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 159-120 ATS (+27.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 97-71 ATS (+18.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 68-44 ATS (+19.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 12

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SAN FRANCISCO (13 - 4) at CAROLINA (12 - 4) - 1/12/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (10 - 7) at DENVER (13 - 3) - 1/12/2014, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 15-1 ATS (+13.9 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
DENVER is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
DENVER is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
DENVER is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Division Round

Saturday, January 11

New Orleans at Seattle, 4:35 ET
New Orleans: 0-6 ATS in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders
Seattle: 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Indianapolis at New England, 8:15 ET
Indianapolis: 7-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game
New England: 0-7 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite

Sunday, January 12

San Francisco at Carolina, 4:05 ET
San Francisco: 6-0 ATS in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders
Carolina: 10-0 UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over a division rival

San Diego at Denver, 4:40 ET
San Diego: 19-8 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5
Denver: 16-30 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games

NFL

Division Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 11

4:35 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Seattle is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games at home

8:15 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing New England
Indianapolis is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing New England
New England is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
New England is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

Sunday, January 12

1:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. CAROLINA
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games
Carolina is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games
Carolina is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games

4:40 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. DENVER
San Diego is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Denver
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 1-6-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against San Diego
Denver is 6-10-4 ATS in its last 20 games when playing San Diego

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**Udog** · 01-10-2014, 09:02 AM

NFL

Saturday, January 11

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Saints at Seahawks: What bettors need to know
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New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 46)

The New Orleans Saints are coming off their first postseason road win in franchise history, but the degree of difficulty will rise dramatically when they visit the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks on Saturday. It will be a rematch of a Dec. 2 game in Seattle, when the Seahawks manhandled New Orleans 34-7 and held the Saints to their lowest point total since October 2008. "This is definitely going to be a personal game," New Orleans cornerback Keenan Lewis said. "They embarrassed us last time."

The Seahawks have embarrassed a number of opponents, particularly on their home field, where they are 15-1 over the past two seasons. Among the reasons for Seattle's dominance at CenturyLink Field is its rabid fan base known as the 12th Man, which set a Guiness Book World Record for crowd noise with a reading of 137.6 decibels in the thrashing of the Saints last month. The Seahawks are hoping to see the return of explosive wide receiver Percy Harvin, who has played in only one game since returning from offseason hip surgery.

TV: 4:35 p.m., Fox.

LINE: Seattle opened -8.5 and is now -8. The total is down two points from the opening 48.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 98 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 21 mph.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (12-5): New Orleans' high-powered offense struggles away from home, managing only 36 points in three December road losses before pulling out a last-second 26-24 win at Philadelphia last week. Drew Brees, the only QB with three 5,000-yard seasons, threw for 250 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions against the Eagles but now must contend with a defense that limited him to 147 yards and held the Saints to 188 total yards - the lowest total since Brees and head coach Sean Payton arrived in New Orleans in 2006. New Orleans overcame an injury to running back Pierre Thomas to churn out 185 rushing yards against Philadelphia - including 97 by former first-round pick Mark Ingram - while its defense held the NFL's leading rusher, LeSean McCoy, to 77 yards on 21 carries.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (13-3): Seattle leveled off after steamrolling the Saints, losing at San Francisco and falling to Arizona for its first home defeat in two seasons before closing the campaign with a dominant defensive performance against St. Louis. Wilson was being mentioned for league MVP honors at one point in the season but he stumbled down the stretch, averaging 171.3 yards passing and throwing for four touchdowns and three interceptions in the four games following the beatdown of New Orleans. Marshawn Lynch rushed for 1,257 yards and 12 touchdowns but he cracked 100 yards only once in the last eight games. The Seahawks led the league in fewest points (14.4) and yards (273.3) allowed per game while registering an NFL-high 28 interceptions - eight by cornerback Richard Sherman.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Seahawks are 12-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Saints last four Divisional Playoffs games.
* Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last five vs. NFC.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brees owns the highest completion percentage (67.0) in postseason history and is the only QB with three 400-yard games in the playoffs.

2. Wilson has 24 overall wins and 15 at home in his first two seasons, the most by a quarterback in the Super Bowl era.

3. Saints TE Jimmy Graham had 16 TDs during the regular season but was limited to three catches for 42 yards and a score by Seattle.

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NFL

Saturday, January 11

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Colts at Patriots: What bettors need to know
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Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7.5, 51.5)

Andrew Luck's first visit to New England resulted in the worst defeat of his two-year career - a 59-24 beating at the hands of the Patriots in his rookie season. Luck appeared on the way to absorbing a defeat of similar magnitude a week ago, but he rallied the Indianapolis Colts from a 28-point second-half deficit to a stunning 45-44 victory over Kansas City in the opening round of the playoffs. The improbable win earned Luck a second crack at Tom Brady and host New England on Saturday night.

Luck has amassed 11 wins in the fourth quarter and overtime in his first two seasons - the most in the NFL during that span - but now the Colts have to find a way to take down the winningest quarterback in postseason history. Brady is 17-7 in the playoffs, which includes five trips to the Super Bowl and three championships, and guided New England to an 8-0 home record this season. Brady is working with a patchwork receiving corps that is missing tight end Rob Gronkowski, who caught two touchdown passes against the Colts last season.

TV: 8:15 p.m., CBS.

LINE: The Patriots opened -7.5. The total is down to 51.5 from the opening 53.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with an 86 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 13 mph.

ABOUT THE COLTS (12-5): While Luck stole the headlines by leading five second-half touchdown drives and throwing for four TDs and a career-best 443 yards, second-year receiver T.Y. Hilton also had a coming-out party by hauling in 13 catches for 224 yards and a pair of scores in the second-biggest playoff comeback in league history. The onus will again be on the Luck-to-Hilton combination due to the absence of a consistent running game by Indianapolis, which has relied more on Donald Brown that early-season acquisition Trent Richardson, who fumbled on his lone carry last week. Another concern for the Colts is a defense that allowed a total of 20 points in winning the last three regular-season games but was shredded by a Kansas City offense that was without its top weapon in Jamaal Charles for the majority of the contest.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (12-4): Multiple injuries to Gronkowski and the departure of Wes Welker to free agency has left New England scrambling to cobble together an effective passing attack and it's reflected in the numbers - Brady's 25 touchdown passes and 87.3 passer rating are his lowest since the 2006 season. Converted college quarterback Julian Edelman helped fill the void with 105 receptions - nearly tripling his previous career high - and 1,056 yards, but the Patriots have shown an increasing reliance on sledgehammer running back LeGarrette Blount, who rambled for 265 yards and four touchdowns in the last two games. The defense, which lost Pro Bowl tackle Vince Wilfork and middle linebacker Jerod Mayo to season-ending injuries, suffered another blow when third-leading tackler Brandon Spikes was placed on injured reserve.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in January.
* Patriots are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 playoff games.
* Under is 13-6-1 in Patriots last 20 playoff home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brady, who is 11-3 at home in the postseason, needs three TD passes to surpass Brett Favre (44) for the second-highest total in playoff history.

2. Colts OLB Robert Mathis led the league with 19.5 sacks during the regular season and had a pivotal strip-sack in last week's victory.

3. The Patriots joined San Francisco as the only teams to win at least 10 games in 11 consecutive seasons.

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**Udog** · 01-10-2014, 09:05 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Divisional Round

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 46.5)

Saints’ commitment to run vs. Seahawks’ rushing defense

The Saints got the road-woe monkey off their backs with a win at Philadelphia in the Wild Card Round, thanks in part to their commitment to the running game. New Orleans, despite missing RB Pierre Thomas, handed the ball off 36 times to Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson and Darren Sproles, marching for 185 yards on the ground. That cut down on turnovers and chewed up 34:53 worth of clock, keeping the Eagles’ explosive offense off the field.

The Seahawks' stingy defense is a much tougher test than Philadelphia’s porous stop unit. But, if Seattle does have one weakness, it’s against the run. The Seahawks were pushed around by opposing rushing attacks in their three losses this season. They allowed the Colts to put up 109 rushing yards and a score, watched San Francisco rumble for 163 yards, and gave up 139 yards rushing in the loss to Arizona. The Saints fell behind quickly in their Week 13 loss to Seattle and ran the ball just 17 times, so it won’t be hard to improve on those numbers.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7.5, 51.5)

Colts’ comebacks vs. Patriots’ fourth quarter defense

The Colts are becoming as predictable as a Rocky movie. Scene 1: Indianapolis gets its head beat in for two quarters. Scene 2: Bell rings for halftime, head coach Chuck Pagano does his best Mickey impersonation before a pump-up montage to awesome 80’s cock rock. Scene 3: Colts come out swinging and rip victory from the clutches of defeat. Cue credits and Survivor. Indianapolis did just that versus Kansas City Saturday, scoring 35 points in the second half. That’s kind of been the calling card of the Andrew Luck era in Indy.

The Patriots enjoyed a bye week and hopefully figured out a way to get through the fourth quarter without needing a pile of points. New England’s offense has masked a serious issue, with the defense unable to close out games by itself. The Pats have given up 31 total points in the final frame over their last three outings – offsetting that by answering with 49 points of their own. However, those fourth-quarter lapses could come back to bite New England hard if the Colts get on the comeback trail.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (Pick, 41)

Niners’ momentum vs. Panthers’ bye week blues

As past playoff pushes have shown us, it’s the hot team – not the higher seed – that has the edge. And no team in football is hotter than the 49ers. Not even the icy temps at Lambeau Field could slow down San Francisco, which has won seven in a row (4-3 ATS). The 49ers are coming off a massive victory over Green Bay on a last-second field goal and are out to avenge a loss to Carolina earlier this season.

The Panthers built up a lot of momentum in the final weeks of the season, winning three straight and 11 of their final 12 games to grab the No. 2 seed in the NFC and a first-round bye. But many are asking if Carolina has peaked and whether taking a week off will cool the Panthers’ play. Carolina is no fan of the bye week – playoff or regular season. The Panthers are 0-3 SU and ATS coming off the bye week under coach Ron Rivera and were knocked out of the playoffs in 2008 after a 12-4 season earned them a first-round break, losing 33-13 as 9.5-point favorites to Arizona in the Divisional Round.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-10, 54)

Chargers’ third-down success vs. Broncos’ third-down defense

The Bolts have already laid the blueprint for beating the Broncos, knocking off Denver 27-20 as 10-point road underdogs in Week 15. San Diego controlled the tempo and dominated time of possession in that game, burning up 38:49 to Denver’s 21:11. A big part of that win – and the Chargers’ overall success – is the team’s ability to keep the chains moving on third down. San Diego ranks tops in the NFL in third-down conversion rate, picking up the first 48.17 percent of the time, and went 6 for 12 on third downs in the win over Denver.

The Broncos defense has been the elephant in the room all season. Denver’s stop unit has been burned for big numbers and is missing one of its key cogs in LB Von Miller, who is out for the season with a torn ACL. The Broncos were in the middle of the road in terms of third-down defense, limiting opponents to a 38.07 conversion percentage (16th), but can’t afford to keep the Bolts on the field Sunday. San Diego did a great job holding on to the ball and removing Peyton Manning and the Denver offense from the equation in Week 15.

**Udog** · 01-10-2014, 12:37 PM

Where the action is: Saturday's Divisional line moves

The NFL Playoffs continue this weekend with the Divisional Round. In the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks entertain the New Orleans Saints, while in the AFC, the New England Patriots host the Indianapolis Colts.

We talk to oddsmakers about all of the betting action coming in on both of these postseason showdowns.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks - Open: -8, Move: -7.5

Most wagering outlets opened this with the home team either -8 or -8.5 with not a whole lot of line movement since post. The Saints earned their first postseason road victory in franchise history in Philadelphia last week and will look to build on that in Seattle. CenturyLink Field is a different beast, however, and the Seahawks posted a SU record of 7-1 (5-3 ATS) in the regular season.

"The Seahawks line hasn't moved one bit since early Monday morning when we went from -8 to -7.5, and I honestly don't see this line moving much if at all before game time," says Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag. "Action is coming in exactly as we expected, with a bit more Saints money coming in and we're OK with that money."

The Total has been a different story for this NFC matchup. Most shops opened the number at 48 and with some unsavory weather conditions in Seattle's forecast, bettors - sharp and public alike - have backed the Under all week.

"Tuesday we got wiseguy play on Under 48, so moved to 47.5, and another sharp played it Under 47.5, so we have gone all the way to 45.5," said Mike Perry, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag. "This appears to be a weather play, as there is supposed to be rain all day accompanied by 25-30 mph winds. Fifty-nine percent of cash is on the Under."

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots - Open: -7

Here we have a similar situation as above. There hasn't been a flurry of movement as most books opened the Pats as TD-faves over the visiting Colts.

"Regarding the line, we've been dealing Pats -7 all week but just this morning we went to Colts +7 (-115)/Pats -7 (-105) because we're starting to see a lot more money come in on the underdog Colts," Stewart tells Covers.

As far as the total is concerned, bettors have again backed the Under with some weather conditions to consider.

"Got sharp play under 53, so moved to 52," Perry says. "Another game with somewhat nasty weather expected. It's supposed to rain all day and winds will be 20 mph."

**Udog** · 01-10-2014, 10:12 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Division Round

Saints (12-5) @ Seahawks (13-3)—NFL-wide, four of last five #6 seeds to advance to this game also won this game, all as underdogs. New Orleans got first-ever road playoff win in Philly last week, only third time in nine road games this year they scored more than 20 points (averaged 30+ ppg at home). Seattle (-6) blasted the Saints 34-7 in a Week 13 Monday night game, outgaining NO 429-188, forcing six 3/outs on ten drives. Seattle is 5-3 as home favorite this year, with only SU loss to Arizona in Week 16. Saints are 2-3 as an underdog this year; they’re 3-5 SU on road, three losses by 6 or less points. Over last seven years, #1 seed in NFC is 1-6 vs spread in this game, losing SU four of last six years. Saints lost 41-36 here in playoffs three years ago; they’re 6-7 overall vs Seattle, losing four of last five visits here, with three of four losses by 10+ points. Fourth road game in five weeks for Saints; Seattle had bye last week and is playing third straight home game- they did score 17 or less points in four of last six games.

Colts (12-5) @ Patriots (12-4)—Indy was down 38-10 at home last week early in third quarter, rallied for unlikely 45-44 win, advances to visit New England squad that crushed them 59-24 here LY, third straight series win (by 3-7-35) in series where home team won last five meetings. Colts lost last three visits here, with last win in 2006. Colts are 5-3 on road this year, giving up 7 or less points in three of five wins- they’ve beaten 49ers-Seattle-Denver this year, so they’re capable, especially since Brady isn’t exactly surrounded with great talent at skill positions. Colts are 4-2 vs spread as an underdog this year, but their last four losses were all by 10+ points, with three of those happening on road. NFL-wide, #2 seeds are 6-0 SU in this round last three years, 5-1 vs spread, with non-cover by half-point. #2 seed in AFC won this game four of last five years, is 5-5 vs spread in last ten. Patriots have bye into this round for 7th time in last decade; with the bye, they’re 6-1 SU, 3-3-1 vs spread in this round.

49ers (13-4) @ Panthers (12-4)—Carolina is a home underdog against a team they beat on the road, plus they had bye last week; think Rivera played the “no respect” card this week? Panthers (+6) won 10-9 at Candlestick back in Week 10, shutting 49ers out in second half, holding them to 2-13 on 3rd down in game where both sides completed exactly 50% of its passes. Carolina started season 1-3, then finished it 11-1; they’re 5-0-1 as home favorites this year and were 10-point favorites in the push. 49ers are on road for third straight week; they won their last seven games overall, were held to 9 or less points in three of their four losses. Niners are 4-5 overall in Charlotte, losing 31-14/23-20 in last two, last of which was in ’10. Last SF win here was 25-22 in OT in ’01, last year these teams were NFC West rivals. Key for Panthers is getting WR Smith back on field; he is the key element of their offense- bye week had to help there. #2 NFC seeds won/covered this game last four years; NFL-wide, #2 seeds are 5-1 vs spread in this game the last three years.

Chargers (10-7) @ Broncos (13-3)—San Diego won last five games to get here, one of which was Thursday night win on this field in Week 15; they’ve won four of last five visits to Mile High City- they outrushed Denver 177-18 in the game here, 131-84 in the Week 10 game, when Denver (-7) won 28-20 at Qualcomm, the day Manning tweaked his ankle in last 2:00 of game. San Diego is 5-4 on road this year with only one loss (27-17 at Oakland in Week 5) by more than four points- they’re 6-3-1 vs spread as underdogs, 3-1-1 on road. Broncos are 7-1 at home this year, 6-2 vs spread, with all seven wins by 10+ points- Charger loss three weeks ago was their most recent home game. Charger coach McCoy was Denver’s OC for two years, so he has to have at least a little insight into what makes Manning’s offense click. Over last eight years in NFL, #1 seeds are 7-9 SU in this round, 4-12 vs spread. Over last decade, AFC #1 seeds are 2-8 vs spread in this round; Broncos (-9) lost this game at home to the Ravens LY, 38-35.

**Udog** · 01-10-2014, 10:16 PM

NFL

Saturday, January 11

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Tale of the Tape: New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
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A spot in the NFC Championship Game is at stake Saturday afternoon when the Seattle Seahawks entertain the New Orleans Saints.

The Seahawks boast one of the most impressive home-field advantages in pro sports - and will get an added boost with the return of star wide receiver Percy Harvin. The Saints are no pushovers, boasting a top-flight offense led by Drew Brees and an underrated defense that should give Seattle fits.

Here is the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson didn't dazzle like some of the league's top signal-callers, but he was effective when he needed to be. The Seahawks finished 26th in the league with just 3,236 passing yards, but Wilson threw for a respectable 27 touchdowns with nine interceptions - the second-lowest total in the NFL. Wilson did contribute greatly to a Marshawn Lynch-led rush attack that compiled the fourth-most yards in football (2,188), racking up 14 scores.

Brees didn't return to the 5,000-yard passing club in 2013, but was still one of the top options in the NFL with 4,943 passing yards, 39 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions. That said, the veteran signal caller struggled in last week's victory over Philadelphia (249 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) and will likely find the sledding even tougher against a stout Seattle defense. New Orleans ranked 25th in rushing yards during the regular season but had 185 in the victory over the Eagles.

Edge: New Orleans

Defense

The Seahawks rose to prominence on the strength of the best pass defense in the league. Seattle limited opponents to a paltry 2,752 passing yards - more than 350 fewer than the second-place Saints - while giving up just 16 touchdowns through the air and snagging a league-best 28 interceptions. The Seahawks were slightly more charitable in the running game - allowing the seventh-fewest yards - but surrendered only four scores on the ground while forcing seven fumbles.

Few teams can match what Seattle does on the defensive side of the ball, but New Orleans has proven throughout the year to be one of those teams. The Saints held foes to just 194 passing yards per contest while allowing 20 touchdowns and racking up 49 sacks - five more than the Seahawks. Like Seattle, New Orleans is more susceptible in the rushing department. The Saints allowed 1,786 yards on the ground while surrendering 11 scores and forcing three fumbles.

Edge: Seattle

Special Teams

The Saints had one of the worst return games in the league this season, averaging a paltry 6.1 yards on 32 punt returns - the third-lowest mark in the NFL - and an even 23 yards per kickoff return with a long attempt of 82 yards. New Orleans struggled against opposing kickoff returns - allowing 25.2 yards per attempt - but limited foes to 7.5 yards per punt return. Veteran kicker Shayne Graham is 6-for-6 since replacing the ineffective Garrett Hartley in Week 16.

Seattle had the 27th-best kick-return average during the regular season (21.2), but finished ninth in the league in punt-return average (11.1) on a whopping 52 opportunities. The Seahawks were near the middle of the pack in kickoff-return average against (24) but held opponents to a paltry 3.9 yards per punt on 21 attempts. Kicker Steven Hauschka was nearly automatic, connecting on 33-of-35 field-goal chances - including 14-of-15 from 40 yards and beyond.

Edge: Seattle

Notable Quotable

"They did a lot of things well. They rushed the passer well. They covered well. We didn't feel like, at the end of the day we felt like we didn't have much rhythm, we didn't have many opportunities ... the more balanced you can be is better." - Brees on the Saints' Week 13 loss in Seattle

"We're really a very disciplined, film-watching football team. I think when you work that hard, when you study that hard, when you're not out partying and you're spending that time watching film, and getting ready for your opponents, it benefits you." - Seahawks defensive back Richard Sherman

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NFL

Saturday, January 11

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Tale of the Tape: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
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One of the NFL's best veteran quarterbacks tangles with one of the league's top young gunslingers as Tom Brady leads the New England Patriots against Andrew Luck and the visiting Indianapolis Colts in Saturday night's AFC Divisional Round playoff game.

Brady and the Patriots enjoyed a first-round bye after posting a 12-4 regular-season record, including an 8-0 mark at Foxboro. Luck and the Colts rallied from a 28-point deficit to stun Kansas City 45-44 in last week's wild-card showdown.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Luck had a solid if unspectacular second season in the NFL, leading a Colts pass attack that ranked 17th in the league in yardage (3,725) with 23 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions. He had an eventful game against the Chiefs, throwing for 436 yards with four TDs and three interceptions. The rush attack was up-and-down for most of the season, ranking in a tie for 20th in yardage (1,743) but finishing with a respectable 15 scores while fumbling just three times.

Despite dealing with long-term injuries to top receiving options Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola, Brady managed to put together another solid campaign. The future Hall of Famer lifted New England to 10th spot in the NFL in passing yards (4,087) with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The Patriots overcame Stevan Ridley's fumbling problems to rank ninth in yards on the ground (2,065) on 4.4 yards per attempt while finishing second with 19 touchdowns.

Edge: New England

Defense

Last week's shootout with Kansas City notwithstanding, the Colts had a strong season when it came to defending the pass. Indianapolis allowed the 13th-fewest yards through the air (3,711), countering 21 touchdowns against with 15 interceptions and 42 sacks. The Colts' run defense was a disappointment - allowing the seventh-most yards while getting torched for 14 TDs - and surrendered 150 yards to a Chiefs team playing without injured star Jamaal Charles.

The Patriots' defense was banged up all season, but still managed to impress in stretches. New England ranked 18th in opposing passing yards (3,824), allowing 25 touchdowns but grabbing 17 interceptions and compiling 48 sacks - second-most in the AFC. The Patriots were gashed for 2,145 rushing yards - the third-highest total in the league - but held their own against red-zone ground attacks, allowing just 11 touchdowns on the season.

Edge: Even

Special Teams

Indianapolis ranked near the middle of the pack in both kickoff return average (23.5 yards) and punt return average (9.9). The Colts weren't nearly as effective at defending returns, allowing the seventh-highest kickoff average (25.2) and the second-highest punt average (13.7) - highlighted by a 98-yard return from Rams speedster Tavon Austin in St. Louis' Week 10 win. Kicker Adam Vinatieri was sensational, connecting on 35-of-40 field-goal opportunities.

New England was solid on returns in 2013, ranking 12th in kickoffs (24 yards per attempt) and 11th in kickoffs (10.8). The Patriots also did a solid job at defending returns, allowing just 20.8 yards per kickoff return try and 7.6 yards per punt return attempt - both top-10 marks league-wide. Stephen Gostkowski was one of the top kickers in the NFL, hitting 38-of-41 field-goal chances - including 16-of-19 from 40 yards or longer.

Edge: New England

Notable Quotable

"It's truly an honor to have an opportunity to field a team and compete against the likes of coach (Bill) Belichick who will go down as one of the greatest coaches in the history of the National Football League." - Colts offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton

"I think we rally together really well. I think we lean on each other. I think we trust each other. We play with a lot of heart, and I think that shows." - Patriots running back Shane Vereen

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Division Round (Saturday,January 11 - Sunday, January 12)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Division Round (Saturday,January 11 - Sunday, January 12)

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