NFL Division plays

[roccodean]

Based on 1-5*

2* 6 point tease (or 6.5 at -120 if needed to get Car at 7.5) Seattle -1.5/Carolina +7.5

analysis to follow

Carolina will close -2 or 2.5 so I would get this in asap if u like it

[roccodean]

My calc line on IND,NE is 5.9 so the value is on Indy, but cant trust Luck and Indy's D is banged up so only a lean on Indy

Seattle
My calculated line is Sea -7 so there is no value on the straight wager, but I don't see Seattle losing this game outright. The Saints strength is their pass offense which averages 7.9 YPPA (6th during reg season), but the Seahawks have the best pass D in the league allowing only 5.8 YPPA! The Saints cannot run the ball (26th during the reg season) and won't be able to against a Seahawks D that allows only 3.9 YPR. When Seattle has the ball they will have no problems rushing versus a Saints D that allows 4.6 YPR (28th during regular season). Seattle will control this game and get the win. I have a 28-16 ATS playoff trend favoring the Seahawks based on the Saints winning as a short dog last week. Sea dominated when they played during the regular season (6.2 YPP VS 3.6 YPP)...I don't see any difference here.
Carolina
This line is based on public perception and not the numbers. My calculated line is Carolina -2.7. The real question is how much does coaching and playoff experience matter? I can't quantify this (I don't think anyone can), hence my tease on Carolina. I think this is a 3 point game either way and getting 7.5 is a great play. Let's examine the numbers...these teams are almost identical. Offensively, SF averages 4.4 YPR and 7.7 YPPA. While Carolina offensively averages 4.2 YPR and 7.1 YPPA. Defensively, the Niners allow 3.9 YPR and 6.5 YPPA. Carolina allows 4.0 YPR and 6.8 YPPA. I think the most underrated part of the game and what we as handicappers often overlook is the offensive and defensive lines. Football Outsiders have Carolina's off line at 13th during the regular season, while SF's was 27th. And Carolina's defensive line is 9th, while SF's is 22nd. Last time they played Car held SF to 2.9 YPP! Give me two nearly equal teams with a huge spread!

[BigWeiner]

Line is a pk right now and I like 9ers +7, but good luck Rocco

[Sirporkie]

GL Rocco!

[roccodean]

Line is a pk right now and I like 9ers +7, but good luck Rocco

think it is a 3 point game either way