NFL Wildcard

[roccodean]

Based on 1-5*

2* Cinci -6.5
Prob upgrade to 3*
Analysis to follow

[Kaptain]

thanks for the info Rocco...........gl with the play

Great Wild Card Fact



In general in the NFL the straight up winner also covers 86% of the time.

It is even better in the Wild Card round...In Wildcard round from '93-present straight up winner is 82-8-3 ATS (91%) ATS, including 24-0 ATS in last 6 years.

[BigWeiner]

Good luck Rocco, I like the 9ers

[roccodean]

2* cin -6.5
If you follow me you know I rarely bet favorites (because the line is often shaded toward them) and very rarely bet favs 6+. But, I think Cinci runs away with this game because this is a matchup problem for the Chargers. San Diego's only statistical strength is their passing offense (8.2 YPPA, 4th during regular season), but they will be stifled by the Bengals' pass D that was 2nd in the NFL allowing only 5.9 YPPA. San Diego's D is one of the worst in the league; they allow 8 YPPA (2nd to last in NFL) and 4.6 YPR (27th). If the weather is bad Cinci should have no problem running on the Chargers...they had 164 yards rushing in their regular season meeting. Cinci has been great at home this year (8-0 ATS) and are averaging 34.4 PPG there (SD allows 24 PPG on the road). I see Cinci winning this one by 14+.

2* phil -2.5

I think that the Saints are getting more respect than deserved in this matchup due to Drew Brees and their name. But, Philly is the much better team. The Saints have a terrible run game (offensively and defensively). They average 3.8 YPR (26th) and allow 4.6 YPR (28th). This plays right into Philly's hands because they are the best in the league rushing for 5.1 YPR. If weather is a factor the Eagles have a clear advantage. Foles and Brees have had very similar seasons. Here are the numbers. Brees: QBR 70, 68.6%, 7.9 YPPA, 39 TD, 12 INT's. Foles: QBR 69, 64%, 9.1 YPPA, 27 TD's, 2 INT's. The biggest discrepancy are their interceptions, and the team that wins the turnover battle covers the spread 77% of the time. In the air defensively, the Eagles have a slight advantage allowing 6.8 YPPA vs. the Eagles 7.3. I think that the Eagles are simply the better more well rounded team and have the ability to pound the ball against the Saints or put it in the air.