NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 17 (Sunday, December 29)

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 29

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday Night Football betting: Eagles at Cowboys
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+6.5, 52.5)

With Tony Romo likely watching from the sideline, the Dallas Cowboys will try to save their season Sunday night when they host the Philadelphia Eagles in a winner-take-all showdown for the NFC East title. The final game of the NFL regular season will probably feature veteran backup Kyle Orton and the Cowboys taking on second-year stud Nick Foles and the explosive Eagles offense, with the winner earning a home playoff game next weekend. Philadelphia is relatively healthy and coming off arguably its best game of the season, while Dallas had lost four of six prior to last week's dramatic win over Washington.

"I think the guys have got a lot of confidence in me. I've got a lot of confidence in myself," said Orton, who has started 69 games in his career. "I can fall back on my experience. I've played a lot of games in this league. I don't feel I have to do too much with the ball, just get it to 29 (DeMarco Murray), 82 (Jason Witten) and 88 (Dez Bryant)." Bryant tweaked a back injury in practice this week, but the star wide receiver expects to play, unlike standout linebacker Sean Lee, who will miss his fifth game with a neck injury. "We're prepared to get the Cowboys' absolute best no matter who is the quarterback," said Philadelphia defensive coordinator Billy Davis, "and they are going to get our best."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Dallas opened +1.5 and now sit +6.5. The total opened 55.5 and is down to 52.5.

WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT THE EAGLES (9-6): Philadelphia owns the rare distinction of having the NFL's leader in passer rating (Foles, 118.8) and the league's top rusher (LeSean McCoy, 1,476), not to mention electric receiver DeSean Jackson and his career-high 79 catches for 1,304 yards. McCoy needs 37 yards to break the franchise's single-season rushing record (Wilbert Montgomery, 1512 yards in 1979), even though he has received more than 20 carries only four times all season. Foles completed 84 percent of his passes last week in a 54-11 trouncing of Chicago and threw two touchdown passes with no interceptions to improve his numbers to 25 TDs and two INTs.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (8-7): Orton has not started a game since the final day of the 2011 season - with Kansas City - and the 31-year-old has thrown only five passes this season and just 15 total passes the last two years. Without Romo (back), the Cowboys' offense will likely rely on Murray, who has rushed for 439 yards and five touchdowns over his past four games. The Dallas defense actually might be the team's biggest problem at the moment, however, as the team has allowed at least 21 points in every game since the first matchup with Philadelphia - a 17-3 road victory on Oct. 20.

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 7-1 in Eagles last eight road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Cowboys have signed 41-year-old QB Jon Kitna to serve as a backup on Sunday. Kitna, who made nine starts for an injured Romo in 2010, last played in the NFL in 2011.

2. Only two wide receivers in the NFL average more yards per reception than Eagles WR Riley Cooper (18.1).

3. Philadelphia has allowed 21 points or fewer in 10 of its last 11 games.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 29

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tale of the tape: Eagles at Cowboys
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The battle for the NFC East title is on, while the Cowboys and Eagles compete for the division victory and a spot in the playoffs. In this loser goes home scenario, the Eagles attempt to hold on to their one win lead while the Cowboys try to sneak in to the playoffs with a 9-7-0 record.

Offense

Confidence is high behind quarterback Nick Foles who has a remarkable 25 TDs to just two INTs and a 4-1 record over their last five. Foles is completing 63.9 percent of his passes and enters the week with the highest quarterback rating (118.7) of quarterbacks attempting 200 or more passes. The Eagles rank first in the league in rushing yards with 161.9 and second in average total yards with 420.7. The high-scoring Eagles are averaging 27.9 points per game and have two players in the top 10 in their respective offensive categories. Running back LeSean McCoy is first in the league in rushing yards with 1,476 over 287 carries. Wide receiver DeSean Jackson has nine touchdowns on the year and is tied for second overall in receptions of 40 yards or more with eight.

The Cowboys come in to Week 17 averaging the third most points per game at 27.8. The Cowboys have struggled with the running game, but running back DeMarco Murray has been a one man army putting up nine touchdowns and 1,073 yards through 200 attempts. The Cowboys only have three players with over 150 yards rushing and only have three players that have scored a rushing touchdown (Murray, Joseph Randle and Phillip Tanner). With quarterback Tony Romo out for the season nursing a herniated disk, Kyle Orton will take his place attempting to lead the Cowboys to the postseason. Throughout his 9 year career, Orton has 14,661 total yards and 1,296 completed passes over 2,219 attempts for a 58.4 percent completion percentage. He has 81 TDs and 57 INTs in his career, but over the 2013 has only thrown five passes.

Edge: Philadelphia Eagles


Defense

The Eagles defense have allowed an average of 24 points per game (ranked 16th) and allowed 107.5 rushing yards - good for 12th overall. The Eagles defense have allowed 285.2 passing yards (30th) and 392.7 total yards ranking them 30th in the league. Cornerback Brandon Boykin is tied for fourth with five interceptions including one for a TD and an INT return of over 76 yards. Offensive Linebacker Trent Cole has three forced fumbles this year and leads the Eagles with 8.0 sacks. Middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans has a team high 120 tackles and 4.0 sacks. The Eagles defense is tied for eigth in the league in total interceptions with 17.

The Cowboys defense is ranked last in the league in total yards allowed averaging 418.6 a game and second last in passing yards allowed with 290.7. They are allowing an average of 27.2 points per game and 27th in the league in rushing yards allowed, giving up an average of 127.9. Defensive tackle Jason Hatcher has been the shining star of the Cowboys defense acquiring 9.0 sacks, one forced fumble and 37 tackles. The Cowboys only have three players with over 5.0 sacks and rank 31st in the league in total sacks with 29.0. Middle linebacker Sean Lee leads the Cowboys in interceptions with four including one TD and an interception of 74 yards. With Lee ruled out again Sunday with a neck injury, the Cowboys will feel his presence missed against an Eagles team that likes to take shots down field.

Edge: Philadelphia Eagles


Special Teams

Eagles kicker Alex Henery has been average all year completing 22-of-27 field goals (82 percent). He has made 1-of-2 from 50 or more yards but really has struggled in field goals between 40-49 yards going 6-of-9 for 67 percent. Philadelphia has only two punt returns of 20 or more yards with a season long of 32 yards. They have returned 24 kicks of 20 or more yards and only two returns of 40 yards or more.

Placekicker Dan Bailey has made 25-of-27 field goals including a perfect 8-of-8 record from inside 40-49 yards. He is 6-of-7 (86 percent) on field goals of 50 or more yards. The Cowboys are ranked sixth in kick returns, averaging 25.2 yards over 43 returns. They have shown the ability and explosiveness to make huge plays returning five punts of 20 or more yards and two returns of 40 or more. Dallas has 28 kick returns of 20 or more yards and three of 40 or more.

Edge: Dallas Cowboys


Notable Quotable

"The sky's the limit. We're still in the beginning phases of what we want to do. Players getting used to one another. We feel like we can get a lot better." - Eagles offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur

"(Cowboys coach) Jason Garrett can get out there. (Owner) Jerry Jones can get out there. It doesn't matter to me, it doesn't matter to anyone else in this locker room. We're on a mission and they're in our way. Period." - Eagles cornerback Cary Williams.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NFL weather report: Sunday's forecasts

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-5.5, 41.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow across the field at 12 mph.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-7, 43.5)
Temperatures will be in the high-40s with mostly cloudy skies and a 50 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 44)
Temperatures will be in the low-40s with an 83 percent chance of rain.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5, 46)
Forecasts are calling for a 90 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the low-40s.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 44.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with a 46 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3, 53)
Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with a 56 percent chance of snow in the forecast. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 20 mph.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-8, 47)
Forecasts are calling for a 100 percent chance of rain. Temperatures will be in the high-30s with wind blowing across the field at 5 mph.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+11, 53.5)
Temperatures will be in the high-50s with wind blowing across the field at 6 mph.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-10, 44.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny and clear skies.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-11.5, 43)
Temperatures will be in the low-40s with a possibility of foggy conditions.

[Udog]

Essential betting tidbits for Week 17 of NFL football

- Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in its last six games versus divisional opponents, while the Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS against the AFC South.

- Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has completed just 57 percent of his passes with four TDs and three interceptions in three career games against Jacksonville.

- The New York Jets have dominated Miami ATS in recent years, going 12-3 in their last 15 meetings.

- The over is 18-6-2 in New York's previous 26 road games against teams with winning home records. The Dolphins are 4-3 in Miami.

- Detroit has been a final-month bust in recent years, going 1-7 ATS in its last eight December contests.

- Minnesota will likely be without running back Adrian Peterson for the season finale. With Toby Gerhart also on the sidelines, Matt Asiata will get the start. Asiata had 30 carries for 51 yards and three scores in Week 15 against Philadelphia.

- Houston has played to the Under in nine of its last 11 road games versus teams with losing home records. The Titans are 2-5 in Tennessee.

- Running back Chris Johnson is likely playing in his final game in a Titans uniform. Johnson averages 89.9 yards with three total touchdowns in 11 career games against the Texans.

- Cleveland has been one of the lower-scoring teams when it comes to season finales, playing to the Under in eight of its last 11 Week 17 encounters.

- The Under is 13-5 in Pittsburgh's last 18 home games, and 10-4 in the Steelers' previous 14 divisional games.

- Washington has been dreadful when it comes to beating the spread against weaker competition, going 14-30-3 ATS in its last 47 games against teams with losing records.

- Redskins WR Pierre Garcon has racked up 17 catches for 167 yards and a touchdown in his last two games against the Giants.

- The Bengals are one of only three NFL teams to go into the final week with an unbeaten home record - New Orleans and New England are the others - and are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games.

- Baltimore is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games in Cincinnati.

- The Panthers have traditionally been a solid bet in the closing weeks of the NFL season, going 39-19-2 ATS in their last 60 December games.

- The home team is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between Atlanta and Carolina - and so is the favorite.

- Green Bay will have quarterback Aaron Rodgers back from a collarbone injury for Sunday's pivotal Week 17 encounter with Chicago, in which the winner claims the NFC North title. Rodgers has thrown for 2,513 yards with 19 TDs and six interceptions in 11 career games versus the Bears.

- Chicago (-28) is the only current division leader with a negative point differential; the Packers (-16) would need to win by 16 or more points Sunday to avoid a similar fate.

- Buffalo has had trouble stringing together consecutive solid games, going 5-14-1 ATS in its last 20 games following an ATS win and 7-21-1 ATS in its last 29 outings following a SU victory.

- Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has 53 touchdown passes in 23 career games versus the Bills - easily the highest total against any opponent.

- Tampa Bay has held tough on the road against tough opponents, going 18-6 ATS in its last 24 road games versus teams with winning home marks.

- The Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings, and 4-0 in the last four encounters at New Orleans.

- The Broncos and Raiders share a strange ATS trend, with the road team going 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings.

- The Over is 10-2-1 in Denver's previous 13 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. The Broncos shelled Houston 37-13 in Week 16.

- Both the 49ers and Cardinals have been strong plays, with San Francisco 6-0 ATS in its last six road games and Arizona going 6-0 ATS in its previous six contests overall.

- Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer has fared reasonably well against the 49ers in his career, passing for 550 yards with three touchdowns and a pair of interceptions in two meetings.

- Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games but is expected to play its second and third-stringers for most of its season finale at San Diego. The Chiefs are already locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC.

- The Under is 9-1 in the Chargers' last 10 games versus conference opponents.

- St. Louis won't make things easy in its final game of the season in Seattle, having gone 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games versus teams with winning records.

- The Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings - and with both teams boasting impressive defenses, that trend could continue.

- Dallas and Philadelphia, which meet Sunday night for the NFC East title, have been two of the league's top teams when it comes to turnover differential. The Cowboys are tied for third at plus-11 on the season, with the Eagles right behind at plus-10.

- The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Philadelphia enters as a seven-point road fave.

[Udog]

Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

It's the final week of the NFL season which means there are some teams playing for their postseason lives and some teams that are out but enjoy playing the role of spoiler.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons - Open: +7, Move: +6

A win and the Panthers can clinch the NFC South crown and a first-round bye. They can get the same result with a New Orleans Saints loss but taking care of their own business will be top priority. At 9-5-1 ATS, the Panthers have been one of the best bets all season.

"Bet count is currently 2-to-1 favoring the Panthers," the oddsmaker tells Covers. "However, there is sharp money backing the Falcons at the +7 value creating a 2-to-1 money wagered condition favoring the Falcons."


Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots - Open: -7.5, Move: -9, Move: -7.5

The math is simple for the Patriots: Win and enjoy a first-round bye. Losses by both the Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts will also ensure the Pats secure a bye, but if they trump the Bills Sunday, it will be mission accomplished.

"Both sharp and public bettors are lining up on the Pats this week and the number is currently sitting at 9 and probably will see more movement before kick off," our contact said. "Sharps backed the Pats at the -7.5 value and the public is still piling on at the -9 value."


Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears - Open: -3

These two bitter NFC North rivals have everything to play for Sunday. A win and Green Bay takes the division while a win or a tie will earn the Bears the division crown. Bettors have lined up for this one but results are almost equally divided.

"This game of course has huge implications and has huge volume to back that fact and has had no overwhelming public favorite," the oddsmaker said. "The sharp betting contingency is backing the Packers at -3."

Meanwhile, despite some typically frigid December conditions in the Windy City, the betting public has piled on the Over here.

"The Over has been getting murdered moving from 51.5 to 53.5 based on pure public betting volume."


Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers - Open: -10, Move: -9

It will take a lot for the Chargers to slip into the playoffs as they need a win along with losses from the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins. Since the Chiefs are in, limited snaps from the starters seems to be in the cards as the squad prepares for the playoffs.

"Despite rumors of limited play from the starting KC squad combined with San Diego needing a win to get to the playoffs, Sharp money is backing the Chiefs at the +10 value," says the oddsmaker. "Public money is behind San Diego based on their win or go home scenario."

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 29

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ravens at Bengals: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 43)

The defending Super Bowl champs look to bounce back from a damaging defeat and give themselves a chance to repeat when they visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. While the Baltimore Ravens can technically lose and still back into the playoffs if several other teams in the hunt also lose, they can make it much easier on themselves with a win coupled with losses or ties by either San Diego or Miami.

In order to deliver the Bengals their first loss at home this season, Baltimore will need to put forth a better effort than the one it submitted in a 41-7 home loss to New England, which forced four Ravens turnovers to drop them out of AFC North contention. Cincinnati, which locked up that division crown while crushing Minnesota, 42-14, still has something to play for, as it can attain a first-round bye in the playoffs with a win and a loss by the Patriots, who are hosting Buffalo. The first matchup between Baltimore and Cincinnati on Nov. 10 saw the Ravens blow a 17-0 lead - including a Hail Mary touchdown pass by the Bengals that forced overtime - before winning 20-17 in the extra session.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: The Bengals opened as 5-point faves and are now -7. The total opened at 44.5 and is down to 43.

WEATHER: There is a 46 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with wind blowing across the field at 7 mph.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (8-7): Coach John Harbaugh has made the postseason in each of his first five seasons with Baltimore, turning playoff football into one of the trademarks of the organization. Along the way, another trademark has been the team's ability to bounce back from losses like the one it sustained against New England; the Ravens have won their last nine games following double-digits setbacks. Quarterback Joe Flacco, who has zero touchdowns and two interceptions in his last two games, has struggled at Cincinnati, where he has four scores and six picks through the air in his last four full games at Paul Brown Stadium.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (10-5): The chances of the Patriots falling at home to the Bills may not be very high, but Cincinnati has indicated it will not rest its starters and has every intention of going all in to give itself a chance to move up the playoff ladder. "We're going to do everything we can to win the football game with our guys and go at it that way," coach Marvin Lewis told reporters this week. Some Bengals players have hinted that hurting Baltimore's chances is an extra incentive, especially given the fact that Baltimore has won five of the last six meetings between the division rivals.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Ravens are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings in Cincinnati.
* Over is 4-0 in Bengals last four home games.
* Ravens are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in December.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Flacco needs 280 passing yards to join Vinny Testaverde as the only quarterbacks in franchise history to reach 4,000 in a season.

2. Bengals QB Andy Dalton (4,015 yards) needs 117 yards to surpass Carson Palmer's franchise mark for a season, set in 2007.

3. Baltimore had three turnovers and totaled 189 yards in the overtime win against Cincinnati earlier this season.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[jt4545]

Thanks my friend and always good luck