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**Udog** · 12-27-2013, 11:43 AM

NFL Opening Line Report: Parity makes Week 17 worth it

Week 17 of the NFL season is usually a mess.

You have a handful of games with playoff implications while the majority of the card is loaded with teams just finishing up a lost season or resting their stars before the postseason.

But, thanks to the vast amount of parity in the NFL this season, Week 17 is no longer the most feared week for books and bettors. It could just be one of the best weeks ever.

“When you have incentive, the line is easier to make,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “All those rankings and stats we look at make sense. You’re not wondering about who is playing hard or protecting their assets.”

All but a few of the Week 17 games have some sort of say in how the playoff picture is painted, including two divisional matchups that hold a golden ticket to the tournament for whichever team wins Sunday.

The NFC East title is on the line when the Philadelphia Eagles visit the Dallas Cowboys. Korner says his team of oddsmakers had the Cowboys as the early favorites before the Eagles thumped the Bears on Sunday night. Now, this game is being dealt with Philadelphia as a 2.5-point favorite. Despite Dallas’ tendency to tank in these must-win games, the line is based strictly on current form.

“We’re factoring in what just happened,” says Korner. “Dallas squeaked one out and the Eagles were on national TV romping. I think Philly as a small favorite is the way to go.”

As for the NFC North, the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers duke it out for the division. Korner sent out a suggested line of Chicago -5 with Packers QB Aaron Rodgers out.

If Rodgers does return for the first time since breaking his collarbone in Week 9, this line will rise – but maybe not as much as bettors would think. Most weeks, Rodgers would be worth at least a touchdown. But at less than 100 percent, Rodgers impact on the spread declines.

“I don’t know if the bettors will let us have too big of a jump,” Korner says. “I don’t think (Rodgers) is worth as much in a one-game situation where it could disrupt the flow that (backup QB Matt) Flynn may have. And he’s not healthy. If he would be a 100 percent Sunday, he would have been 100 percent this past game when they really needed him.”

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-13, 47)

The Saints need to win in order to punch their passport to the playoffs. New Orleans hasn’t looked like a Super Bowl contender in recent weeks but comes back to the Superdome, where its offense is averaging 32.9 points compared to 17.8 points on the road.

“We sent out 13.5 on this,” says Korner. “This is a game New Orleans is going to want to get out to a big lead and just cost from there. I think that the way bettors see this, the Saints need the win and they’re going to draw the money. And we don’t want to be cheap on any team that needs the win.”

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5, 44.5)

Both teams need to win Sunday. Cincinnati already has the AFC North locked up but can vastly improve its playoff seeding with a victory and some outside help. Baltimore is scratching and clawing for a AFC Wild Card spot after an embarrassing loss to New England Sunday.

“We sent out this at Bengals -7.5. The -5.5 is way too low,” says Korner. “Cincinnati isn’t relaxing. It may be more important for them to win and improve their playoff rankings. I know Baltimore needs to win but coming off a horrible loss and being on the road – I just don’t think they show up as much as Cincinnati will.”

**Udog** · 12-27-2013, 11:44 AM

NFL line watch Week 17 betting: Jump on Giants vs. Redskins

Spread to bet now

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5)

Has there been a more bizarre NFL team in recent years than the Redskins? Washington started its season with controversy about its nickname and will likely finish it with eight straight losses. The last time the Redskins won, we were still eating Halloween candy.

Washington lugs a 3-12 record (1-6 on the road) into New Jersey this Sunday, with Mike Shanahan coaching his final game for the team. The only thing that smells halfway decent about this one from the Skins’ perspective is the short commute. Don’t be sucked by the half a point or the Giants’ overall lousy play. New York is actually 6-3 since its nightmare 0-6 start and should cover. Jump quickly on this one.

Spread to wait on

Buffalo Bills (+8.5) at New England Patriots

This one might be a game-time decision for bettors, because there are a lot of moving parts at the top of the AFC playoff picture. At 1 p.m. ET, the 10-5 Bengals play at home against Baltimore in a game Cincinnati absolutely has to win to have a shot at the No. 2 AFC seed, which comes with a home game and a bye.

If the Bengals get it done, the 11-4 Patriots will have to hold serve in their 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff against the Bills in order to keep that No. 2 seed for themselves because Cincy won their head-to-head battle. New England also has an outside shot at the top seed in the AFC, but Denver would have to go down at Oakland. Best to see how the Bengals are doing around 3:45 p.m. ET. Then if you can, move before the numbers or vig changes on this game.

Total to watch

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (43.5)

Have you also noticed that scores are coming down? The results, no doubt, are inflated O/U totals and the cold weather. Heading into Monday night the Under had carried in 11 of 15 games during Week 16. With depressed posted totals for Week 17 (only two games in the 50s – Detroit at Minnesota and Denver at Oakland), the pendulum appears to have swung back for the final weekend of the season.

That has created a buying opportunity on the Browns-Steelers game. Until this past Sunday, Cleveland averaged nearly 30 points in its previous three games. The Steelers, meanwhile, have had no problem scoring points at home. With a modest 43.5 on the board, an Over play looks solid.

**Udog** · 12-27-2013, 11:44 AM

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Sports betting doesn’t take a break over the holiday and action has been steadily impacting the odds for Week 17 of the NFL season.

Here’s a look at the biggest adjustments on the board heading into the regular season finale Sunday.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons – Open: +7.5, Move: +6

The Panthers have punched their postseason ticket and can become the NFC’s top seed with some help in Week 17. However, the Falcons are fighting to the finish and some books have trimmed this spread below the key number at some books.

"Sharp money took the points with the Falcons. We went to -7 and haven’t moved off that number," says Peter Childs of Sportsbook.ag. "We’ve seen most of the recreational bettors bet the road favorite, which is to be expected. So far, we’ve booked this game dead even but we know come gametime we’re going to need the Falcons big in this one."

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts – Open: -13, Move: -11.5

The Colts have been pegged into the postseason for a while and can still earn a first-round bye with a win over Jacksonville and losses to the Patriots and Bengals. That may be a lot to ask for and Indianapolis could be scoreboard watching the Baltimore-Cincinnati game, pulling their starters if the Bengals get up on the Ravens.

"It will be interesting to see how the Colts plan on playing this," says Childs, who opened Colts -11 and has remained at that spread. "While they say they’re going to go for the win and play all their starters, at the end of the day the players know it’s somewhat of a worthless game for them so motivation is going to be key."

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots – Open: -8.5, Move: -10.5, Move: -9.5

The Patriots are desperate for the No. 1 seed in the AFC but will need help from Oakland to steal it away from Denver Sunday. New England head coach Bill Belichick has never been much on resting his guys and cruising into the playoffs, so expect the Pats in full force.

"Pats opened -10 and immediately got hit with sharp money plus the points, we went straight to -9.5 and have been dealing that number since," says Childs. "The public is hammering the favorite and at this point. I’m not sure when, but I have a feeling we’re going to have to go back to -10 to offset all the Pat’s -9.5 money we’re seeing. About 80 percent of the action is on the Pats. This might be our biggest decision of the weekend."

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys – Open: +1.5, Move: +7.5

This line jumped six points at some markets when rumors that Tony Romo would miss the game due to a back injury hit the news. However, the Cowboys are playing it very coy with Romo’s injury and haven’t ruled out their QB for Sunday night’s do-or-die divisional matchup with the Eagles. The total also moved, dropping from 56 to 52.5 points.

"We opened Eagles -3 and then saw the news about Tony Romo being out for this game. After closing it and discussing a new number with our oddsmakers, we reopened with the Eagles -7.5 and we got hit up hard with Eagles money," says Childs. "But as news has trickled down that Romo might be able to play and hasn’t been 'ruled out', we’re starting to see some Cowboy money come in and we’ve adjusted with the news as well, going from -7.5 to now dealing -7 on this Sunday night game."

**Udog** · 12-27-2013, 11:45 AM

NFL Week 17 road map: Games that matter

As the NFL reaches the final week of the regular season, more than half the teams in the league still have something to play for.

Whether it's a playoff spot, a first-round bye or home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs, teams have a variety of motivations entering Week 17. Some control their own fate, while others need a little - or a lot - of help to realize their postseason dreams.

Here's a look at the games that matter as the season winds down Sunday:

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 44.5)

The Bengals have already clinched the AFC North title, but have a first-round bye in their sights. To land one, they'll need a home victory against the Ravens, combined with a New England Patriots loss in their season finale against Buffalo. The Ravens face a more harrowing path to the playoffs; they need either a win combined with a San Diego or Miami loss, or defeats by the Chargers, Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers if they fall in Cincinnati.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+6, 45)

The Panthers face a wide range of outcomes. A victory or a New Orleans loss against Tampa Bay would secure the NFC South championship. Carolina also has an outside shot at the top seed in the NFC and home-field advantage all the way to the Super Bowl, but would need a win over the visiting Falcons combined with losses by the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-5.5, 41)

Miami doesn't control its destiny in its season finale. The Dolphins need to beat the Jets at home, but can't reach the playoffs unless they also get a Baltimore loss to Cincinnati, or a San Diego victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. Miami may benefit from playing a Jets team with nothing on the line, which may prompt them to give some second and third-stringers an audition.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 44)

The Steelers have the longest odds of any team still alive in the playoff hunt. Pittsburgh faces a must-win scenario at home against Cleveland, but that's only the beginning, it also needs Miami, Baltimore and San Diego to all lose. That would leave all four teams in a tie at 8-8, with Pittsburgh owning the tiebreaker in that scenario based on 4-2 NFC North record and the best conference record (6-6) of the remaining teams.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-11.5, 45.5)

Indianapolis has already secured the AFC South championship, but has a first-round bye in its sights. The Colts can secure the extra week of rest with a home victory over Jacksonville and a loss by both New England and Cincinnati. Indianapolis has the benefit of facing a Jaguars team with nothing to play for, a threadbare receiving corps and an expected time split between running backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Jordan Todman.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-8, 47)

With the AFC East division already wrapped up, the Patriots find themselves in a great spot to improve their position entering the postseason. The Patriots will lock up a first-round by with a victory over the Bills; even if they lose, they'll get an extra week off if Cincinnati and Indianapolis both lose. New England also has a shot at the top seed in the conference, but will need a win combined with a Denver loss.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+11.5, 53.5)

Led by one of the most historically proficient offenses in NFL history, the Broncos are in position to enjoy a home-field edge throughout the AFC playoffs. If Denver earns a victory or tie in Oakland, or if New England loses to or ties Buffalo, Denver will have the top seed in the conference. Expect Peyton Manning and Co. to pile up the points against a Raiders defense that ranks among the worst in the league.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-11, 43)

The Seahawks find themselves in a similar situation as the Broncos. Seattle can clinch the NFC West and home-field advantage throughout the postseason with a home victory in its season finale against division rival St. Louis. The Seahawks will also earn the No. 1 seed if San Francisco drops its last game in Arizona. Seattle fell 17-10 to the Cardinals on Sunday for its first home loss in 15 games.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (OFF)

The NFC North Division title is at stake when the Packers visit the Bears at Soldier Field. Chicago holds a half-game lead over Green Bay, and can secure the division championship with either a win or a tie versus the Packers. Green Bay will have their MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers back under center for the first time since Nov. 4 when he broke his collarbone.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (Pick'em, 42)

Last week's home loss by the Seahawks opened the door for San Francisco to seize the division title. But it will need to dispatch the tricky Cardinals and hope Seattle loses at home to St. Louis. San Francisco can add home-field advantage throughout the playoffs to its resume with a victory, a Seattle loss and a Carolina loss. Arizona advances with a win or tie and a New Orleans loss - a result the Cardinals will already know come game time.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-9.4, 45)

The Chargers have the most interesting afternoon ahead of them, as they'll already have a good idea of their playoff future going into the game against the visiting Chiefs. San Diego can only earn an AFC wild-card berth if both Miami and Baltimore lose their early games and the Chargers go on to beat a Kansas City club that has already clinched the No. 5 seed and will be resting its starters.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+6.5, 52.5)

The final game of the NFL's regular season will decide who emerges from the mediocre NFC East. The Eagles own a slight edge over the host Cowboys, meaning they can clinch the division championship with a win or tie. Dallas needs to win outright - and faces an uphill battle a quarterback Tony Romo deals with a back injury. Neither team is eligible for a first-round bye.

**Udog** · 12-27-2013, 11:45 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 17

Philadelphia at Dallas
The Eagles look to clinch the NFC East title against a Dallas team that is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games in Week 17 of the season. Philadelphia is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-6 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 29

Game 301-302: Carolina at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 136.899; Atlanta 127.550
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 9 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Carolina by 6; 46
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-6); Under

Game 303-304: Green Bay at Chicago (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 128.107; Chicago 127.223
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1; 49
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 305-306: Houston at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 122.822; Tennessee 126.915
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4; 48
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+7); Over

Game 307-308: Cleveland at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.172; Pittsburgh 138.965
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 16; 39
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-7); Under

Game 309-310: Washington at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.239; NY Giants 125.422
Dunkel Line: Even; 49
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 4; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4); Over

Game 311-312: Baltimore at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 129.905; Cincinnati 141.329
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 11 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 5 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-5 1/2); Under

Game 313-314: Jacksonville at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 125.856; Indianapolis 130.289
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 4 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 11 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+11 1/2); Over

Game 315-316: Philadelphia at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 138.210; Dallas 128.464
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 6 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-6 1/2); Under

Game 317-318: NY Jets at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 124.040; Miami 139.068
Dunkel Line: Miami by 15; 38
Vegas Line: Miami by 6; 41
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-6); Under

Game 319-320: Detroit at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 131.660; Minnesota 130.354
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 52
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3); Over

Game 321-322: Buffalo at New England (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 123.204; New England 140.765
Dunkel Line: New England by 17 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: New England by 8 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: New England (-8 1/2); Under

Game 323-324: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 131.565; New Orleans 137.432
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6; 53
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 13; 47
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+13); Over

Game 325-326: Denver at Oakland (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 141.319; Oakland 122.966
Dunkel Line: Denver by 18 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Denver by 12; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-12); Under

Game 327-328: San Francisco at Arizona (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 142.234; Arizona 144.231
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2; 46
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+1 1/2); Over

Game 329-330: Kansas City at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 138.267; San Diego 138.017
Dunkel Line: Even; 49
Vegas Line: San Diego by 10; 45
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+10); Over

Game 331-332: St. Louis at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 131.754; Seattle 146.570
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 15; 38
Vegas Line: Seattle by 10 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 12-27-2013, 11:46 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 17

Sunday, December 29

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CAROLINA (11 - 4) at ATLANTA (4 - 11) - 12/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 59-38 ATS (+17.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 51-26 ATS (+22.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
ATLANTA is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (7 - 7 - 1) at CHICAGO (8 - 7) - 12/29/2013, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (2 - 13) at TENNESSEE (6 - 9) - 12/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
HOUSTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
HOUSTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
HOUSTON is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
TENNESSEE is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (4 - 11) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 8) - 12/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 91-61 ATS (+23.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 46-24 ATS (+19.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (3 - 12) at NY GIANTS (6 - 9) - 12/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 3-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (8 - 7) at CINCINNATI (10 - 5) - 12/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games this season.
CINCINNATI is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
BALTIMORE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 60-89 ATS (-37.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (4 - 11) at INDIANAPOLIS (10 - 5) - 12/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (9 - 6) at DALLAS (8 - 7) - 12/29/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 157-120 ATS (+25.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 58-36 ATS (+18.4 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
DALLAS is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
DALLAS is 31-54 ATS (-28.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (7 - 8) at MIAMI (8 - 7) - 12/29/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (7 - 8) at MINNESOTA (4 - 10 - 1) - 12/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (6 - 9) at NEW ENGLAND (11 - 4) - 12/29/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 158-120 ATS (+26.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 11) at NEW ORLEANS (10 - 5) - 12/29/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 26-46 ATS (-24.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-41 ATS (-23.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (12 - 3) at OAKLAND (4 - 11) - 12/29/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 22-41 ATS (-23.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 27-51 ATS (-29.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 26-49 ATS (-27.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (11 - 4) at ARIZONA (10 - 5) - 12/29/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (11 - 4) at SAN DIEGO (8 - 7) - 12/29/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 3-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 4-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (7 - 8) at SEATTLE (12 - 3) - 12/29/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 98-133 ATS (-48.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 20-38 ATS (-21.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 56-83 ATS (-35.3 Units) off a division game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 3-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 4-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-27-2013, 11:47 AM

NFL

Week 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, December 29

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Detroit's last 25 games on the road
Detroit is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Detroit

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. PITTSBURGH
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Pittsburgh's last 18 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. TENNESSEE
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Houston

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Jacksonville is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games
Indianapolis is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
Indianapolis is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. MIAMI
NY Jets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing Miami
Miami is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Miami is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing NY Jets

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY GIANTS
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 3-5-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
NY Giants are 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
NY Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Washington

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Baltimore is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore

4:25 PM
BUFFALO vs. NEW ENGLAND
Buffalo is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo

4:25 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. SAN DIEGO
Kansas City is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Diego
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 9 games when playing at home against Kansas City

4:25 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

4:25 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing Seattle
St. Louis is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games

4:25 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NEW ORLEANS
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

4:25 PM
DENVER vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Denver's last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games when playing Denver

4:25 PM
GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 9 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-5-1 SU in its last 8 games ,
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games at home

8:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. DALLAS
Philadelphia is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Philadelphia's last 18 games
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas's last 11 games at home

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**Udog** · 12-27-2013, 11:49 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 17

First Post

Panthers (11-4) @ Falcons (4-11)-- Carolina won NFC South with dramatic win last week, but can still get #1 seed if they win here and Rams upset Seahawks later in day. Panthers hammered Atlanta 34-10 (-7.5) in Week 9, with four takeaways (+2), 15-yard edge in field position. Carolina won four of last five road games, with last two wins by total of five points. Falcons covered last four tries as underdog, after being 1-4 in first five; underdogs covered last five Atlanta games; Falcons lost by 10 in SF Monday, is on a short week as dismal season comes to end. Carolina lost last five visits here, with four of five losses by 8+ points. Home teams are 9-1 vs spread in NFC South games, 2-1 if underdogs. Six of last seven Carolina games stayed under the total; five of seven Atlanta home games went over.

Packers (7-7-1) @ Bears (8-7)-- Winner-take-all in NFC North; if game ends in a tie, Chicago wins division- they beat Pack 27-20 (+10.5) in Week 9, when Packers lost Rodgers for rest of season. Bears had 442 TY that night, as Pack scored only one TD on three trips to red zone, in first loss to Bears in last seven series games. Packers won last three visits here, by 7-10-8 points; series has been swept 8 of last 12 years. Chicago had chance to clinch division last week but laid egg in 54-11 loss at Philly; Bears are 5-2 at home, with five of seven games decided by six points or less. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in NFC North divisional games, 5-3 at home. Four of last five Packer games, five of last six Chicago games went over the total. No line posted yet as I type this; Rodgers' status will be determined later in week.

Texans (2-13) @ Titans (6-9)—If you own the Texans, you order the coach to lose this game to guarantee #1 pick in draft, right? Houston (-7.5) beat Titans 30-24 in OT in Week 2, were 2-0, haven’t won since; they outrushed Tennessee 172-119, outgained them by 204 yards, surviving a -2 turnover ratio, but now they’re a pathetic 2-12-1 vs spread, 1-5-1 on road, losing away games by 21-31-1-3-7-22 points. Coach got fired, QB got benched, then got his job back when backup got hurt. Texans won three of last four visits here; season series was split four of last five years. Titans are 2-3 vs spread this year in game following a win; they’re 3-2-1 when favored this year, 1-1-1 at home- they’ve lost last five home games after winning first two. Houston has two takeaways (-8) in its last six games; Titans have two (-8) in last four games. AFC South home teams are 4-5-1 vs spread in divisional games, 2-3 when favored. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Titan games, 5-3 in last eight Texan tilts.

Browns (4-11) @ Steelers (7-8)—Pitt needs lot of help but is still alive/kicking for playoff spot; they’re 7-4 in last 11 games after 0-4 start, scoring 30-38 points last two weeks, stopping Packers on goal line in last minute last week- they scored TD on defense/special teams in four of last five games, and covered six of last seven, but were underdogs in five of six covers. Pitt is 4-3 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, winning at Heinz by 3-13-10-10 points. Cleveland is 0-6 (1-5 vs spread) since its Week 10 bye, losing last three road games by 21-1-11 points; they’re 3-4 as road underdogs, with only road win in Week 3 at Metrodome when Hoyer was QB. Browns lost last nine visits here, with eight of nine by 11+ points; they’re 3-24 in last 27 series games. Steelers were -11 in turnovers the first four weeks, are +7 since; they’ve scored 27+ points in five of last six games. AFC North home teams are 8-2 vs spread in divisional games, 5-2 when favored. Six of last eight Cleveland games, last four Steeler games went over total.

Redskins (3-12) @ Giants (6-9)—Miserable season ends for Redskins, who lost last seven games, last two by single point each; they’re 1-4 as road underdogs this year, losing on road by 18-15-24-7-8-1 points, winning only 24-14 at Oakland (-3) in Week 4. Not only that, but Rams have their #1 pick in April. Giants are 6-3 in last nine games after 0-6 start; they’re 3-4 as favorites this year, 2-3 at home, with home wins by 16-4-14 points- four teams that beat them in Swamp are all still alive for playoffs. Skins’ two TDs last week were on short fields (33-43 yards); they’ve lost four of last five visits to Swamp, and lost 24-17 (+1) at home to Giants four weeks ago. Big Blue ran ball 35 times for 66 yards in last two games combined, scoring one TD on 26 drives, with 12 three/outs; only a pick-6 in last 5:00 last week got them to OT against generous Lions at Ford Field. NFC East home teams are 5-5 vs spread in divisional games, 4-4 if favored. Three of last four Giant games, four of last six Redskin games stayed under the total.

Ravens (8-7) @ Bengals (10-5)—Baltimore needs this game to make playoffs, but Cincy is just third team ever (’52 Lions/’00 Rams) to score 40+ points in four straight home games in same year; they’re 7-0 SU/ATS at home, winning at home by average score of 34-17, beating Brady/Rodgers/Big Ben/Luck. Five of their seven home wins are by 10+ points. Bengals are this good despite having advantage in field position in only four of 15 games. Ravens had 4-game win streak snuffed out by Patriots last week; they’ve scored only one TD on 24 drives in last two games, as Flacco’s bum left knee, has made him immobile in pocket. Bengals (+1) lost 20-17 at Baltimore in Week 10, with 134 Cincy penalty yards offsetting 364-189 edge in total yardage; series has been swept five of last eight years. Ravens lost three of last four visits here, losing by 10-5-6 points; AFC North home teams are 8-2 vs spread in divisional games, 5-2 if favored. Three of last four Raven games, four of last five Bengal games went over the total.

Jaguars (4-11) @ Colts (10-5)—Indy is playing in playoffs next week unless Patriots stumble against Buffalo and Colts get bye; Indy played very good defense last two weeks, allowing one TD on 24 drives with 12 three/outs in last two games- they hammered Jax 37-3 (-9) back in Week 4, with four sacks, three takeaways and a defensive TD, but Jags won last two visits here, 17-3/22-17 in season series that split in six of last 11 years. Jaguars are 4-3 in second half of season after 0-8 start; their last five games were all decided by 7 or less points. Jax covered its last four road games, won SU in last three, with only loss 35-19 at Denver (+27). Bradley has done good job keeping team playing hard, but they’ve also given up 190 rushing yards/game in last two weeks, a red flag. Colts are 5-2 SU at home, 2-3 as home favorite, with home wins by 4-6-6-8-22 points, with losses to Dolphins/Rams. AFC South home favorites are 4-5-1 vs spread in divisional games, 2-3 if favored. Over is 8-3 in last eleven Jaguar games, 1-3 in last four Indy games.

Eagles (9-6) @ Cowboys (8-7)—Orton starts at QB for Dallas, with a 41-year old Algebra teacher (Kitna) backing him up, so spread swung 8 points with Romo expected to be sidelined with lumbar disk problem. Dallas allowed 21+ points in each of last eight games since pummeling Eagles 17-3 (+3) in Week 7, KO’ing Foles with concussion while outgaining Iggles 368-278 in game that was 3-0 Pokes at half. Philly won six of last seven games, crushing Bears 54-11 last week in meaningless game for them, huge game for Chicago; Eagles are 5-2 on road, 3-1 as road favorites; this is only their third game on carpet all year- they won 36-21 (+2.5) at Swamp in Week 5, then got pounded 48-30 at Metrodome (-6) two weeks ago. Dallas allowed 35 ppg over last three games; with LB Lee out, can they stand up vs Eagle running attack? Orton has NFL experience (35-34 record in 69 career starts) so Cowboys aren’t destitute here, but tough spot for Orton to step into. NFC East home teams are 5-5 vs spread in divisional games, 1-1 if home dogs. Seven of last eight Dallas games, last three Philly games went over total.

NY Jets (7-8) @ Dolphins (8-7)—Road team won six of last eight series games; Jets won five of last seven visits here, but lost 23-3 (-1.5) at home to Miami four weeks ago, outgained 453-177 with a -2 turnover ratio. Fish had 16-yard advantage in field position, held Jets to 2.4 ypa. Miami needs a win and help to make playoffs after laying egg in Buffalo last week; all seven of their home games decided by 4 or less points, with Fish 4-3 SU, 1-2 as home favorites. Bills said they had Taneyhill’s snap counts last week, leading to shutout win that ended Dolphins’ 3-game win streak. Jets turned ball over only three times in last three games; they’re +3 in turnovers in their seven wins, -20 in eight losses. Miami has one takeaway in six of its last seven games, with first Jet game (three TAs) the 7th game. This is only third game on grass this year for Jets; they lost 38-13 (+3.5) at Tennessee in Week 4, lost 30-20 (+10) at Carolina two weeks ago. AFC North home favorites are 4-4 against spread in divisional games. Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Miami games, 3-6 in last nine Jet games.

Lions (7-8) @ Vikings (4-10-1)—Seems like long time ago, but Detroit (-5) beat Vikings 34-24 on Opening Day, passing for 352 yards with four takeaways (+2) that helped them to 15-yard advantage in field position, but roof fell in on both teams since, with Detroit -18 in turnovers over its last eight games. Lions lost five of last six weeks, with only win over Rodgers-less Packers on Thanksgiving; they’re 3-4 on road, with all seven games on natural grass. Detroit allowed only one offensive TD on 24 drives in last two games, but offense has been turning ball over so much, they’ve self-destructed, and now a coaching change looms. Lions are 1-14 in last 15 visits to Metrodome, which closes down after this game; four of their last five losses here were by 10+ points. Vikings got crushed in Cincinnati last week, after spanking Eagles here week before; they won last three home games, averaging 35 ppg. NFC North favorites are 7-3-1 vs spread in divisional games, 5-3-1 at home. 13 of 15 Viking games this season went over the total.

Bills (6-9) @ Patriots (11-4)—NE needs win to keep bye next week, which is huge; they snuck past Bills 23-21 (-9.5) in season opener, outgaining Bills by 145 yards, converting 11-20 on 3rd down, but scoring only two TDs on five red zone drives, with Bills scoring a long defensive TD to stay close. Patriots won 19 of last 20 series games including last 12 played here, but three of last four in Foxboro were decided by 8 or less points- they’re 4-2 as home favorites, winning home games by 3-20-3-10-24-3-1 point. Misleading score last week; Pats won 41-7, but scored two defensive TDs late and had only one TD drive of more than 53 yards. Buffalo won last two games, blanking Miami last week; they’re 1-5 as road underdogs this year, losing on road by 7-13-18-13-21 points, with wins at Miami/Jaguars. Bills ran ball for 198/203 yards in last two games and held six of last seven opponents under 5.0 yards/pass attempt, but this is it for them, while Pats sharpening up for postseason. Five of seven Buffalo road games, four of last five Patriot games went over total.

**Udog** · 12-28-2013, 09:30 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 17

All Remaining Games

Bucs (4-11) @ Saints (10-5)—New Orleans needs win to make playoffs; they’ve lost three of last four games but are 7-0 at home (6-0-1 ATS), with five of seven home wins by 18+ points. Saints (-3) nipped Bucs 16-14 in Week 2 at Tampa, game that was delayed early on by T-storms- NO scored nine points on four red zone drives, keeping Bucs in game when they completed only 9-22 passes. Tampa lost last four series games, losing 27-16/41-0 in last two visits here; they’re 4-3 in second half of year after 0-8 start, 2-4 as road dogs, losing away games by 1-20-8-3-21-10 points, with win at Detroit. Ryan’s defense has only three takeaways (-9) in its last eight games; shortest TD drive for Saints in last five games is 71 yards. Bucs ran ball 35 times for 98 yards in last two games, leading to field position deficits of 18/20 yards; over last seven games, they’re 20-86 on 3rd down. Home teams are 9-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games, 6-1 if favored. Last six Saint games, four of last five Buccaneer games stayed under the total.

Broncos (13-2) @ Raiders (4-11)— Pryor gets nod at QB for Oakland, but his agent claims they’re setting him up to fail, as chaos continues to reign in Bay Area. Denver needs to win if Patriots won at 1:00, to clinch home field thru AFC playoffs; Broncos won four of last five visits here, with all five games decided by 13+ points. Denver (-15) beat Oakland 37-21 in Week 3 despite -2 turnover ratio, running ball for 164 yards while piling up 31 first downs and 536 TY. Broncos are 5-2 on road, 4-3 as road favorites, winning away games by 18-3-8-7-24 points. Raiders lost last five games (1-4 vs spread); they’re 3-4 at home, but lost last three home games by 29-4-25 points. In their last four games, Broncos outscored opponents 83-31 in second half; in their last two games, 40 of their 44 first downs came on 1st/2nd down- they missed injured WR Welker (concussion) on 3rd down, converting only four of last 20 on that down. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in AFC West games, 3-1 on road. Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Oakland games, 5-2 in Denver road games.

49ers (11-4) @ Cardinals (10-5)—Games in Seattle/New Orleans will affect tenor of this game; Cardinals need Bucs to upset Saints in Superdome for them to have playoff shot, while 49ers can win division if they win and Rams were to upset Seattle. Arizona is 3-0-1 as home favorite this year, with only loss in seven home games 34-22 on a Thursday night to Seattle. Cardinals won last four home games, scoring a defensive TD in each of last three. Niners won last five games, clinching playoff spot late Monday night with red zone stop vs Atlanta; 49ers are 5-2 on road, losing at Seattle/New Orleans. Redbirds (+11) turned ball over four times (-2) in 32-20 loss at Candlestick in Week 6; Niners had 16-yard edge in field position, in game where Cards outgained them 403-387, but 11 of 14 Redbird drives started 80+ yards from goal line. Series has been swept eight of last nine years; 49ers won three of last four visits here. NFL West home teams are 6-4 vs spread in divisional games this year. Six of last seven 49er games, three of last four Arizona games stayed under the total.

Chiefs (11-4) @ Chargers (8-7)—Spread is out of whack because KC is locked into #5 seed next week, while San Diego needs win/Cincinnati win to make playoffs, so by kickoff you’ll know whether Bolts have shot to make playoffs, but zero motivation for Chiefs to play anyone who is banged up. Chargers (+3.5) outscored Chiefs 31-24 in second half of 41-38 win at Arrowhead in Week 12, sixth straight series win for San Diego. KC lost last five visits to Qualcomm, with three losses by 18+ points. Chiefs were 9-0 at their bye, are 2-4 since, with -4 turnover ratio last week, after being +21 in first 14 games. KC scored 101 points in winning last two road games; they’re 6-1 on foreign soil, with only road loss 27-17 at Denver. Chargers scored 30 ppg in staying alive with three straight wins; they’re 4-3 at home, with Week 1 loss to 2-13 Texans (led 21-7 at half) now looming as a damaging blow. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in AFC West divisional games, 4-2 at home. Four of last five Chief games went over total; five of last seven San Diego games stayed under.

Rams (7-8) @ Seahawks (12-3)—Seattle needs win here or an Arizona win to clinch division, home field thru NFC playoffs. Seahawks lost two of last three games after 11-1 start; they’re 4-3 as home favorites, losing at home for first time last week- they’ve got four home wins by 21+ points. Rams had ball inside Seattle’s 10-yard line on last play but didn’t score in Week 9’s 14-9 Monday night home loss, first game Clemens started after Bradford’s knee injury; St Louis is 2-5 vs spread on road this year, 1-2 with Clemens starting- their road losses are by 7-24-15-10-20 points. Rams are +17 in turnovers in their seven wins, -7 in eight losses; without their franchise QB, need to create turnovers/special teams plays to win, and Austin hasn’t been playing, which hurts special teams. Seattle won 15 of last 17 series games, winning last eight played here, with six of eight by 10+ points. Last Ram win here was ’04 playoff game. Home favorites are 4-2 vs spread in NFC West divisional games. Last four games for both teams stayed under the total.

**Udog** · 12-28-2013, 09:34 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 17

Sun, Dec. 29

Carolina at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 9-2 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games
Atlanta: 4-17 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7

Green Bay at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 56-34 ATS in December
Chicago: 2-9 ATS against conference opponents

Houston at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Houston: 2-9 ATS against conference opponents
Tennessee: 28-14 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game

Cleveland at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 20-35 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
Pittsburgh: 14-4 ATS at home after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5

Washington at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Washington: 11-2 ATS in road games after 2 straight losses by 6 or less points
NY Giants: 11-3 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3

Baltimore at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 37-21 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3
Cincinnati: 60-89 ATS versus division opponents

Jacksonville at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 6-17 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Indianapolis: 11-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Philadelphia at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 29-14 ATS revenging a home loss against opponent
Dallas: 1-8 ATS in home games after a win by 6 or less points

NY Jets at Miami, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 17-6 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent
Miami: 2-10 ATS after gaining 3.5 or less yards/play in their previous game

Detroit at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 3-12 ATS after 2 straight losses by 6 or less points
Minnesota: 10-1 ATS in home games after a loss by 21 or more points

Buffalo at New England, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 7-18 ATS in road games off a home win against a division rival
New England: 29-12 ATS in the last 2 weeks of the regular season

Tampa Bay at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 4-14 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
New Orleans: 9-1 ATS in home games off a road loss

Denver at Oakland, 4:25 ET
Denver: 8-1 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3
Oakland: 0-7 ATS at home after allowing 25 points or more in 3 games

San Francisco at Arizona, 4:25 ET
San Francisco: 3-13 ATS in road games after playing on Monday night football
Arizona: 38-21 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent

Kansas City at San Diego, 4:25 ET
Kansas City: 46-68 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3
San Diego: 17-6 ATS in home games after having won 3 out of their last 4

St Louis at Seattle, 4:25 ET
St Louis: 15-37 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game
Seattle: 9-1 ATS off 4 or more consecutive unders

**Udog** · 12-28-2013, 09:35 AM

NFL injury report: Four injuries undervalued by oddsmakers

When marquee players go down with injuries, oddsmakers notice and value is lost for bettors. The key is to find lesser-known players that could have an impact on the scoreboard. Here are four NFL injuries not to undervalue in Week 17.

Tony Gonzalez, WR, Atlanta Falcons (Questionable, toe).

Despite having a 4-11-0 record, the Falcons are ranked 6th in total passing yards averaging 267.5 and 12th in total yards averaging 345.5. Of the Falcons 35 offensive touchdowns, 24 have come through the air. There's no surprise one of quarterback Matt Ryan's favorite targets has been Tony Gonzalez with 39 receptions for 803 yards and 6 TDs. The Falcons host a Panthers team with a defense ranked 7th against the pass, 2nd against the rush and allow the fewest points per game with 14.7. Atlanta will likely struggle putting up points while the Panthers look to clinch the NFC South and get a first-round bye.

Atlanta is a 6-point home underdog against the Panthers. The total is 45.5.

Dennis Johnson, RB, Houston Texans (Questionable, hip).

With three running backs already on injured reserve (Ben Tate Arian Foster, and Deji Karim) the Texans find themselves in trouble at the running back position. Running back Dennis Johnson is questionable with a hip injury which may leave him on the Texans sideline alongside many others. If Johnson does not start, Jonathan Grimes and rookies Ray Graham and Toben Opurum will be the Texans backs. This may not be such a meaningless game for Houston with players competing for starting jobs and roster spots in 2014 and rookies trying to prove their worth.

The Texans are 7-point road underdogs against Tennessee. The total is 43.5.

Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens (Questionable, hamstring).

The defending Superbowl Champion Ravens find their playoff hopes still alive but almost all of it rests on a victory in Week 17 against the Bengals. The Ravens are ranked 26th in points averaging 20.2, 29th in total yards with 313.1 and 28th in rushing yards with 85.4. One part of the Ravens' offensive struggles has been the battle of injuries all year especially at the wide receiver position. In 2013 Smith has 62 receptions for 1101 yards and 4 TDs. Baltimore will likely struggle to run the ball against a Bengals team ranked 6th against the run allowing only 99.8 yards per game.

The Ravens are 6-point road underdogs against the Bengals. The total is 44.5.

Cullen Jenkins, DT, New York Giants, (Questionable, shin/quad).

The New York Giants defense has been the saving grace of a team that has played so poorly all season. The Giants defense have allowed 337.7 total yards, good for 12th, 227.5 passing yards (13th) and 110.1 rushing yards ranking 15th. One aspect the Giants have struggled with defensively is pressuring the quarterback. The Giants are tied for 25th in total sacks with 31.0. With their tackle Jenkins out, the Giants may have difficulty with the Redskins who are ranked 5th in rushing yards with 138.2 and 9th in total yards with 377.6. With both teams having pride and jobs to play for, the Giants will feel the defensive presence of Jenkins missed.

The Giants are 3.5-point home favorites against the Redskins. The total is 45.5.

**Udog** · 12-28-2013, 10:08 PM

NFL

Sunday, December 29

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Sunday's NFL Week 17 betting cheat sheet: Early action
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5, 45)

Jacksonville coach Gus Bradley's first year in Jacksonville has to be considered a moderate success - at least the second half of it. After losing their first eight games by an average of 22.2 points, the Jaguars won four of five after their bye week. The defense has been hit with key injuries late in the season, which has contributed to the Jaguars allowing 380 rushing yards over their past two games - both losses.

Indianapolis has been fairly balanced on offense, but the ground game is a bellwether for its success - the Colts are 9-1 when rushing for over 100 yards, including their past two games. Colts QB Andrew Luck (7,914) needs seven passing yards to surpass Cam Newton for the most by an NFL player in his first two seasons. The Colts have forced 10 turnovers in their last three wins and have been especially tough against the pass in recent weeks.

ODDS: Indianapolis is listed as a 10.5-point fave, down a point from an 11.5-point open. Over/under is down a half-point to 45.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+5.5) + Indianapolis (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -10.5
TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games vs. the AFC.
* Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. divisional opponents.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-5.5, 41.5)

Much-maligned Jets rookie quarterback Geno Smith took his lumps in the first meeting with the Dolphins before getting benched at halftime. Running back Chris Ivory can help avoid a repeat performance for Smith by making some hay in the ground game against Miami's 25th-ranked rush defense. Ivory ran for 109 yards last week against Cleveland, but mustered just 61 in the first meeting versus Miami.

Miami QB Ryan Tannehill, who sits 291 yards away from 4,000, threw for a season-high 331 yards and two touchdowns earlier this month versus New York. Brian Hartline reeled in nine receptions for a campaign-best 127 yards and a touchdown against the Jets, but dropped three passes last week. Hartline is 22 yards shy of amassing back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons.

ODDS: Miami is a 5.5-point fave after opening at -6.5. The over/under is up a half-point to 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms and wind blowing across the length of the field at 13 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: New York (+3.8) + Miami (0.0) + home field (-3.0) = Dolphins -6.8
TRENDS:

* Jets are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 December games.
* Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
* Road team is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 51.5)

Stud wide receiver Calvin Johnson was limited to part-time duty last week due to knee and ankle injuries, but needs eight yards to become the first receiver in league history to reach 1,500 yards in three consecutive seasons. QB Matt Stafford is 67 yards shy of reaching 4.500 for the third straight season. He has thrown multiple interceptions in four of the past five games - 11 overall - during a late-season swoon.

Vikings QB Matt Cassel, who will make his sixth start of the season, amassed 382 yards in a 48-30 upset of Philadelphia on Dec. 15 before throwing three picks in last week's 42-14 drubbing in Cincinnati. Minnesota has also been hindered by injuries star running back Adrian Peterson, who is third in the league in rushing with 1,266 yards but has played in two of the last three and managed only a combined 58 yards on 18 carries.

ODDS: Minnesota is a 3-point fave, with the over/under down a half-point to 51.5.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (+1.0) + Minnesota (+4.5) - home field (-3.0) = Lions -0.5
TRENDS:

* Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight December games.
* Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. the NFC.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-7.5, 43.5)

Receiver Andre Johnson has tied the NFL record of five 100-catch seasons (shared by Wes Welker) and is one of the few bright spots in a dismal season. Johnson ranks second in the NFL with 103 receptions and fifth with 1,358 receiving yards. Texans DE J.J. Watt has 9.5 sacks, less than half of his 2012 total (20.5) when he was named the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year.

Running back Chris Johnson has experienced a lukewarm campaign but is just 50 yards away from posting his sixth consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season. Johnson had a 96-yard outing against Houston in September but that output is his second-highest of the campaign and he has rushed for 46 yards or fewer seven times. Tennessee has dropped five home games in a row.

ODDS: Tennessee opened at -6.5, but the line has been bet up one point. The total is down a half-point to 43.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with mostly cloudy skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 9 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Houston (+7.5) - Tennessee (+2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Titans -8.5
TRENDS:

* Texans are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
* Titans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with losing records.
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Tennessee.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 44)

Josh Gordon, whose 1,564 receiving yards are the most in a single season in team history, needs one touchdown catch to join Gary Collins, Braylon Edwards and Paul Warfield as the only Browns to reach double digits in a season. Gordon is 10 receptions away from breaking Ozzie Newsome's single-season record of 89, which the Hall of Fame tight end recorded three times. Cleveland has lost each of its last nine visits to Pittsburgh.

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has dominated the Browns over his career, winning 16-of-17 starts - including all eight at home. The veteran has posted a quarterback rating of 100 with 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions against Cleveland. Roethlisberger, who thrown 14 TD passes and only two picks over his last six overall games, is 247 yards away from breaking his own franchise record of 4,328 set in 2009.

ODDS: Pittsburgh is a 7-point fave, with the total up a half-point to 44.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-40s with showers in the forecast.
POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+6.0) + Pittsburgh (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Steelers -10
TRENDS:

* Browns are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. teams with losing home records.
* Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5, 46)

The Redskins will be attempting to snap a seven-game slide when they visit the Giants in the season finale on Sunday.Redskins linebacker London Fletcher could be playing the final game of his career while extending his NFL record for linebackers to 256 straight games played. Running back Alfred Morris has gone over 100 yards in each of his first three career games against New York.

Giants quarterback Eli Manning is suffering through the worst regular season of his career with 17 touchdowns, 26 interceptions and seven fumbles. He overcame a five-INT disaster in a loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 15 to throw for 256 yards and one pick in an overtime victory last week. Wide receiver Victor Cruz is expected to miss the game with a knee injury.

ODDS: The Giants have held as a 3.5-point fave, with the total climbing a half-point to 46.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with rain expected and winds blowing across the width of the field at 11 mph later in the game.
POWER RANKINGS: Washington (+7.0) - New York (+3.3) + home field (-3.0) = Giants -6.7
TRENDS:

* Redskins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine December games.
* Giants are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. the NFC.
* Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in New York.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 44.5)

The Ravens, who fell 41-7 to New England last week, have won their last nine games following double-digits setbacks. Quarterback Joe Flacco, who has zero touchdowns and two interceptions in his last two games, has struggled at Cincinnati, where he has four scores and six picks through the air in his last four full games at Paul Brown Stadium. Baltimore had three turnovers and totaled 189 yards in the overtime win against Cincinnati earlier this season.

Cincinnati, which locked up that division crown while crushing Minnesota, 42-14, still has something to play for, as it can attain a first-round bye in the playoffs with a win and a loss by the Patriots, who are hosting Buffalo. Bengals QB Andy Dalton (4,015 yards) needs 117 yards to surpass Carson Palmer's franchise mark for a season, set in 2007.

ODDS: The Bengals are 6.5-point faves after opening at -5. The total is holding at 44.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with mostly cloudy skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 9 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Baltimore (+0.5) + Cincinnati (-4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals -7.5
TRENDS:

* Ravens are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Bengals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Baltimore is 2-6 ATS in its last eight visits to Cincinnati.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+5.5, 45.5)

Carolina has won 10 of its last 11 games primarily on the strength of a strong run game and a dominant defense. The defense was as tough as ever against the Saints, sacking Drew Brees six times and forcing two turnovers as star linebacker Luke Kuechly racked up 24 tackles. With Newton nursing an ankle injury that might limit his role in the running game, running back DeAngelo Williams (810 yards, 3 TDs) is likely to carry the bulk of the load.

Atlanta doesn't have any postseason motivation, but the Falcons would like to send off tight end Tony Gonzalez on a high note as he wraps up what he says will be his final season. Gonzalez has caught a pass in 210 consecutive games - the second-longest streak in NFL history - and already has gone over 800 receiving yards for the 13th time in his career.

ODDS: Atlanta is a 5.5-point dog, down from an open of +7. The total is up a half-point to 45.5.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (-4.5) + Atlanta (+5.0) - home field (-3.0) = Panthers -6.5
TRENDS:

* Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven divisional games.
* Falcons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Favorite is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

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**Udog** · 12-29-2013, 08:02 AM

NFL

Sunday, December 29

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Sunday's NFL Week 17 betting cheat sheet: Late action
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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3, 53)

In addition to the return of franchise quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay could regain the services of Randall Cobb. The wide receiver has been on the shelf since suffering a broken leg against Baltimore in Week 6 but nearly made his return last week. Eddie Lacy's status also is uncertain after the rookie running back, who has scored four touchdowns while averaging 96.7 yards over his last three games, injured his ankle against Pittsburgh.

Jay Cutler has not fared well against the Packers in his career, posting a 1-8 record that includes a loss in the NFC championship game three seasons ago. The quarterback did not play in the first meeting this season due to a groin injury. Chicago must find a way to stop Green Bay's rushing attack, as the Bears rank last in the league with an average of 161.5 yards allowed on the ground.

ODDS: Chicago is a 3-point dog, with the total set at 53.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-20s with a 56 percent chance of snow and wind gusting out of the northwest at 20 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (+4.0) + Chicago (-1.3) + home field (-3.0) = Bears -8.3
TRENDS:

* Packers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs. divisional opponents.
* Bears are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games.
* Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-7.5, 47)

Buffalo dominated on the ground with 203 yards in last week’s 19-0 win over Miami and is second in the NFL in rushing offense (142.5) - an area it can exploit against the Patriots, who are 29th against the run (131.7). The Bills can lean on that rushing attack with quarterback EJ Manuel (knee) sitting out the season finale in favor of Thad Lewis. Buffalo’s defense leads the NFL with 56 sacks.

New England is trying to wrap up an undefeated home slate and ensure a game or two in its own building during the playoffs after posting a strong effort on both sides of the ball in last week's 41-7 throttling of Baltimore. The Patriots made several plays in pass coverage against the Ravens and won the turnover battle 4-0. New England has taken four straight and 19 of the past 20 meetings.

ODDS: New England opened at -8.5 but has been bet down one point. The total is holding at 47.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-30s with rain expected throughout the afternoon.
POWER RANKINGS: Buffalo (+3.5) - New England (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -11.5
TRENDS:

* Bills are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a SU win.
* Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
* Favorite is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-11, 47.5)

Tampa Bay won three in a row after opening the season with eight consecutive defeats, but the offense has slowed markedly over the past four games, averaging 11 points in the three defeats. Rookie quarterback Mike Glennon has struggled to move the offense in the the four-game stretch, throwing for four touchdowns and four interceptions, failing to surpass 180 yards and absorbing 17 sacks.

A typically potent potent offense has hit a few bumps in the road, averaging 12 points in its three defeats in December - all away from home. Drew Brees has thrown two scoring passes and four interceptions in back-to-back losses at St. Louis and Carolina, but he has been spectacular under the dome in New Orleans with 24 touchdowns - including four games with at least four scoring passes - against only three picks.

ODDS: The Saints are 11-point faves, down from an opening line of -13. The total is up a half-point to 47.5.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+4.3) + New Orleans (-4.3) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -11.6
TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Saints are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 Week 17 games.
* Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+11, 53.5)

Denver can lose the top seed with a loss and a win by New England so there will be no lack of motivation despite the 37-21 romp against the Raiders in Week 3 - a game in which Peyton Manning threw for 374 yards and three touchdowns. Manning, who guides an offense that averages a league-best 38.1 points, has a ton of weapons at his disposal; the Broncos are the only team in history to have five players score at least 10 touchdowns.

Terrelle Pryor, who lost his job as a result of a knee injury and lack of production, has struggled in the passing game (five TDs, 11 INTs) but is a dangerous threat with his legs, rushing for 527 yards and averaging 7.1 yards a pop. Backup Rashad Jennings has been a capable fill-in for oft-injury Darren McFadden, who is finally healthy, so expect Oakland to try and utilize the ground game to both keep the ball away from Manning.

ODDS: The Raiders are 11-point dogs, down from a +13 opening line. The total is holding at 53.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with sunny skies.
POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-7.0) + Raiders (+6.5) - home field (-3.0) = Broncos -10.5
TRENDS:

* Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last eight December games.
* Raiders are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (PICK, 42)

San Francisco is allowing an average of 14.8 points during its five-game winning streak but needed a late defensive touchdown in order to seal a 34-24 victory over Atlanta on Monday because of some holes in pass coverage. NaVorro Bowman’s 98-yard interception return for a TD masked some of those deficiencies and kept the team riding a high after the game.

Arizona has won its last three games and is looking for its first 11-win season since moving from St. Louis in 1988. Arizona could become just the second team (New England, 2008) to miss the playoffs with 11 wins under the current alignment. Carson Palmer needs 133 yards to become the first quarterback in history to reach 4,000 yards with three different teams.

ODDS: The game is a pick 'em after opening at 49ers -1.5. The total is set at 42.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: San Francisco (-6.0) + Arizona (-3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals -0.5
TRENDS:

* 49ers are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 games on grass.
* Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games.
* San Francisco is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-10, 44.5)

Kansas City hasn't beaten a team that currently has a winning record since knocking off Philadelphia in Week 3 and has lost three of its last five despite running back Jamaal Charles' outstanding play. Charles, who will be limited Sunday, has an AFC-best 1,287 rushing yards and is trying to lead the conference in rushing for the second straight season. He's also one of the Chiefs' top receivers with 70 catches for 693 yards.

San Diego has found balance on offense in recent weeks and had enough success against the Raiders to overcome three turnovers. Running back Ryan Mathews has come on at the end of the season, compiling at least 99 rushing yards and a touchdown in three straight games, but was held out of practice Thursday because of an ankle injury.

ODDS: San Diego is a 10-point fave, up a half-point from the opening line. The total is down a half-point to 44.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with sunny skies.
POWER RANKINGS: Kansas City (-2.3) + San Diego (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Chargers -2.2
TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
* Kansas City is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games in San Diego.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-11.5, 43)

Standout defensive lineman Robert Quinn had three sacks in last Sunday’s victory over Tampa Bay and has a franchise-record 18 on the season, bettering the mark of 17 set by Kevin Carter in 1999. He is slightly ahead of Indianapolis Colts standout Robert Mathis (17.5) in the battle for the NFL’s sack crown and has also forced seven fumbles – one behind Mathis for the league lead.

The play of second-year quarterback Russell Wilson is a prime reason why the offense has sputtered over the past three weeks. Wilson was just 11-of-27 for a career-low 108 yards against the Cardinals and has the same number of interceptions as touchdowns (three each) during a stretch in which Seattle is averaging just 16.7 points. Seattle has won 15 of the last 17 meetings, including a win in St. Louis on Oct. 28.

ODDS: Seattle is installed as a 11.5-point fave, up from an opening of -10. The total is holding at 43.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with overcast skies and fog a possibility.
POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+1.5) + Seattle (-7.3) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -11.8
TRENDS:

* Rams are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Seahawks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a SU loss.
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+7, 52.5)

Philadelphia owns the rare distinction of having the NFL's leader in passer rating (Nick Foles, 118.8) and the league's top rusher (LeSean McCoy, 1,476), not to mention electric receiver DeSean Jackson and his career-high 79 catches for 1,304 yards. McCoy needs 37 yards to break the franchise's single-season rushing record, even though he has received more than 20 carries only four times all season.

With Tony Romo on the mend, Kyle Orton takes over under center. Orton has not started a game since the final day of the 2011 season - with Kansas City - and the 31-year-old has thrown only five passes this season and just 15 total passes the last two years. Without Romo (back), the Cowboys' offense will likely rely on running back DeMarco Murray, who has rushed for 439 yards and five touchdowns over his past four games.

ODDS: Dallas opened +1.5 but the line has since been bet down a whopping 5.5 points. The total is down three points to 52.5.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Philadelphia (-3.0) + Dallas (-0.5) + home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -0.5
TRENDS:

* Eagles are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Cowboys are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 December games.
* Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

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**Udog** · 12-29-2013, 08:05 AM

NFL

Sunday, December 29

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Jets at Dolphins: What bettors need to know
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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-5.5, 41.5)

The Miami Dolphins allowed one AFC East team to win the division title by pretty much laying an egg against another last week. On Sunday, the Dolphins look to defeat the other division rival when they host the New York Jets and receive some help in order to clinch the conference's final wild-card berth. Miami needs to win on Sunday and have Baltimore (8-7) lose at Cincinnati or San Diego (8-7) defeat visiting Kansas City in order to find its way into the postseason for the first time since 2008.

The Dolphins put forth a listless performance last week as they accumulated just 103 total yards in a 19-0 setback to Buffalo, allowing New England to win the division title as a result. Ryan Tannehill was sacked seven times and injured his left knee, but is expected to play as Miami seeks to defeat New York for the second time this season. The Jets posted a 24-13 victory over Cleveland last week for their second win in three outings following a 23-3 loss to the Dolphins on Dec. 1.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Miami opened -6.5 but has moved to -5.5. The total is up a half-point to 41.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow across the field at 12 mph.

ABOUT THE JETS (7-8): Much-maligned rookie Geno Smith took his lumps in the first meeting before getting benched at halftime. Running back Chris Ivory can help avoid a repeat performance for Smith by making some hay in the ground game against Miami's 25th-ranked rush defense. Ivory ran for 109 yards last week against Cleveland, but mustered just 61 in the first meeting versus Miami.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (8-7): Tannehill, who sits 291 yards away from 4,000, threw for a season-high 331 yards and two touchdowns earlier this month versus New York. Brian Hartline reeled in nine receptions for a campaign-best 127 yards and a touchdown against the Jets, but dropped three passes last week. Hartline is 22 yards shy of amassing back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Jets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 meetings in Miami.
* Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Dolphins last six games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Dolphins hold the edge for a postseason berth in an event of a three-way tie due to a better conference record.

2. The Jets have won of the last eight meetings in South Beach, but are just 1-6 on the road this season.

3. Miami has yielded a franchise-record and NFL-high 58 sacks this season.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 17 (Sunday, December 29)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 17 (Sunday, December 29)

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