NFL Week 17

[roccodean]

1-5*

2* NYJ +6

2* Chicago +3

analysis to follow

[Kaptain]

gl with the NFL Rocco.............thanks for the early post

[roccodean]

1* Jax +11

[roccodean]

2* Jax +11

In my opinion, this is simple...Indy should not be double digit favs versus anyone in the league. This line is inflated for 2 reasons; first because Indy is playing for playoff positioning and second because Indy blew out KC last week. Let's debunk both of these. It is a myth that teams fighting for the playoffs vs. teams that are out of the playoffs will be more motivated and hence cover more. In fact, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season teams that are 2 games or move below .500 vs. teams that are .500+ are 204-172-6 ATS. Not a trend you want to bet blindly (51%), but it debunks the myth that bad teams give up late in the year. Indy may have blown KC out on the score board, but Kc was +0.3 in yards/play, but suffered from a -4 TO differential. Ind averages 4.4 YPR (12th) and only 6.7 YPPA (12th). Their defense is very bad; they are 26th vs the run (YPR) and 22nd vs the pass (YPPA). Indy has benefited from a +11 TO margin including +7 in fumbles. The Jags numbers are obviously not good, hence their record, but I think they have enough to keep it within the number. My calculated line is Indy -9.5 so the value is definitely on the Jags here.

2* NYJ +6

I usually like to bet on teams off shutout losses (Miami) because they are undervalued in the market the following week, but because of playoff implications and because the Jets are undervalued I think this number is actually inflated. The Jets Achilles heel all year is their turnovers. They are -5 in fumbles and -17 in total. If Gino smith is careful with the ball their defense is so good they can complete with most teams. The Jets allow only 3.3 YPR (1st in NFL) which will put extra pressure on Tennehill who I am not a big believer in. Tannehill's QBR is 27th in the league behind the likes of McGloin and Ponder. Offensively, the Jets run game is above average (4.4 PR, 9th) and should be able to run on Miami's D that is 19th in YPR allowed. I have a good 122-58 ATS trend favoring the Jets. My calculated line is Miami -4. I think this is a tight game either way and like the Jets money line small also.

2* Chicago +3

I think this is a big over reaction to Rodgers' return. Statistically these teams are almost exactly the same, and you are giving me 3 points at home...I will take that! My calculated line is pick 'em here, so getting the 3 is a great number. GB rushes for 4.6 YPR vs. Chi's 4.5 YPR. GB has the edge at QB with Rodgers if he is healthy. But, one good hit and he is out of the game. Defensively, GB is 27th in YPR and Chic is 32nd in YPR. In they air both teams allow 7.7 YPPA (26th). So, as you can see both defenses are bad and GB only has a slight edge in the pass game (if Rodgers is fully healthy). Chicago also qualifies for multiple trends including one that is 44-15 ATS playing on dogs that lost ATS by 25+ last week (and 2 other variables)...because these teams are often undervalued (the public only remembers what they saw last week). Da Bears!

[roccodean]

1* 6.5 point tease (-120): Arizona +7.5/ Pitt -0.5

Ariz

These 2 teams are very similar statistically and getting 7.5 is a great number especially in a game that should be low scoring. SF has the edge at running the ball (28th for Ariz and 10th for Ariz). But, don't see SF scoring many points vs. Arizona's D that is 2nd vs the run and 5th vs the pass (YPPA). I have a very good trend on Arizona that is 98-43 ATS playing on home dogs off dog win and a couple other factors. My calculated line is Ariz -0.5.

PIT

I usually back teams when the public thinks they have given up, but after the Browns terrible losses the last couple weeks the word from the locker room is that they have checked out for the season. I don't see Pitt losing this game. Joe Haden is questionable for the Browns and he is their best defender, I think Big Ben has a big day vs a Browns D this is usually 20th in YPPA. The Browns offense is bad (22nd in YPR) and 23rd in YPPA and Campbell is very inconsistent and will face a Steelers' D that allows only 6.7 YPPA (8th). My calculated line is Pit -7, so the line is right on but I love them at a pick em.

[flashypants]

Gl pal

[libertypl]

BOL rocco. Nice write ups, thanks for taking the time.

[Sirporkie]

GL Rocco