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**Udog** · 12-26-2013, 11:21 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Six of the more interesting NFL games this weekend.........

-- Packers @ Bears-- Can Green Bay win division with Aaron Rodgers not playing in half the games?

-- Eagles @ Cowboys-- Spread shifted eight points with Romo out.

-- Texans @ Titans-- Houston clinches #1 pick in draft with 14th straight loss; the way their season has gone, they'll win.

-- Bucs @ Saints-- New Orleans is 7-0 at home; 8-0 gets 'em to playoffs.

-- 49ers @ Cardinals-- Arizona win + Saint loss = Cards in playoffs

-- Ravens @ Bengals-- Baltimore gets in with a win, but Bengals haven't lost at home this season.

*****

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Random thoughts on a winter day......

13) Clippers-Warriors has turned into a heated rivalry; teams play again on January 30. we'll find out who the NBA office thinks are its best refs by what officials they put on that game.

12) Dwight Howard has missed 13 more foul shots than the entire Dallas Mavericks' team. Howard had 20 rebounds last night, is playing really well for the 19-11 Rockets, but 56% isn't good and thats an improvement.

11) Dallas Cowboys signed Jon Kitna for one game; he's been an algebra teacher in state of Washington the last two years. His one week holding the clipboard will earn Kitna $55,294, more than I make in a year.

10) Brooklyn Nets' payroll is $102.2M, by far highest in the NBA; at what point do they pull the plug on Jason Kidd and GM Billy King? Speaking of King, what has he ever done to rate him being an NBA GM?

9) I've got no opinion on the sleeved unfiorms NBA teams wore Christmas Day, but they need to put numbers on the front, so refs can identify the players better. Uniforms in CYO even have numbers on the front.

8) I'm not a big fan of the NBA rule that allows the ball to be advanced to the hash mark in the front court when a timeout is called; it creates more interesting end-of-game situations, but it does so in an artificial way.

7) This season is just 4th time in last 20 years no NBA coaches got fired before Christmas, maybe because 13 were fired last offseason.

6) Toronto Raptors (11-15) are leading their division; only three teams in Eastern Conference are over .500.

5) On other hand, Houston Rockets are 19-11, but wouldn't have the home court edge in first round of the playoffs, if they started today.

4) Knicks are 0-9 vs the West, 9-10 against the East. If ESPN insists on putting them on TV every Christmas,, let them play an eastern team.

3) Memo to Hollywood film makers: No more movies about Nazis. Really, enough already. Now there's another one coming out. Get an original idea.

2) Buffalo (2,386 miles) travelled the farthest to its bowl game, other than two teams that played in Hawai'i. Maryland (27 miles) travelled the shortest distance, other than Tulane, which played on its home field.

1) Interesting that the NHL takes three full days off for Christmas; no games from the 24th-26th; they're also taking an Olympic break from Feb 9th-26th. What happens to teams without lot of Olympic participants?

**Udog** · 12-26-2013, 11:21 AM

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Sports betting doesn’t take a break over the holiday and action has been steadily impacting the odds for Week 17 of the NFL season.

Here’s a look at the biggest adjustments on the board heading into the regular season finale Sunday.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons – Open: +7.5, Move: +6

The Panthers have punched their postseason ticket and can become the NFC’s top seed with some help in Week 17. However, the Falcons are fighting to the finish and some books have trimmed this spread below the key number at some books.

"Sharp money took the points with the Falcons. We went to -7 and haven’t moved off that number," says Peter Childs of Sportsbook.ag. "We’ve seen most of the recreational bettors bet the road favorite, which is to be expected. So far, we’ve booked this game dead even but we know come gametime we’re going to need the Falcons big in this one."

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts – Open: -13, Move: -11.5

The Colts have been pegged into the postseason for a while and can still earn a first-round bye with a win over Jacksonville and losses to the Patriots and Bengals. That may be a lot to ask for and Indianapolis could be scoreboard watching the Baltimore-Cincinnati game, pulling their starters if the Bengals get up on the Ravens.

"It will be interesting to see how the Colts plan on playing this," says Childs, who opened Colts -11 and has remained at that spread. "While they say they’re going to go for the win and play all their starters, at the end of the day the players know it’s somewhat of a worthless game for them so motivation is going to be key."

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots – Open: -8.5, Move: -10.5, Move: -9.5

The Patriots are desperate for the No. 1 seed in the AFC but will need help from Oakland to steal it away from Denver Sunday. New England head coach Bill Belichick has never been much on resting his guys and cruising into the playoffs, so expect the Pats in full force.

"Pats opened -10 and immediately got hit with sharp money plus the points, we went straight to -9.5 and have been dealing that number since," says Childs. "The public is hammering the favorite and at this point. I’m not sure when, but I have a feeling we’re going to have to go back to -10 to offset all the Pat’s -9.5 money we’re seeing. About 80 percent of the action is on the Pats. This might be our biggest decision of the weekend."

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys – Open: +1.5, Move: +7.5

This line jumped six points at some markets when rumors that Tony Romo would miss the game due to a back injury hit the news. However, the Cowboys are playing it very coy with Romo’s injury and haven’t ruled out their QB for Sunday night’s do-or-die divisional matchup with the Eagles. The total also moved, dropping from 56 to 52.5 points.

"We opened Eagles -3 and then saw the news about Tony Romo being out for this game. After closing it and discussing a new number with our oddsmakers, we reopened with the Eagles -7.5 and we got hit up hard with Eagles money," says Childs. "But as news has trickled down that Romo might be able to play and hasn’t been 'ruled out', we’re starting to see some Cowboy money come in and we’ve adjusted with the news as well, going from -7.5 to now dealing -7 on this Sunday night game."

**Udog** · 12-26-2013, 11:22 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 17

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5, 45.5)

Redskins’ first-half defense vs. Giants’ slow starts

A big part of the Redskins’ downfall this season was the early holes the team dug itself. Washington’s defense couldn’t stop opponents from jumping out a quick led, putting pressure on Robert Griffin III to air it out and taking the bite out of a running game that ranks among the best in the NFL. The Redskins allowed opponents an average of over 17 points in the first half and that’s been even worse recently, giving up an average of 23 points in the first two frames the past three outings.

However, the Giants may let the Redskins off the hook in Week 17. New York takes a while to get things going on offense, scoring only 8.4 first-half points per game on the year – lowest in the NFL. Turnover troubles have snuffed out plenty of scoring drives for Eli Manning & Co. The G-Men did manage to put 13 points on the board in the first 30 minutes versus Detroit last week but are averaging 4.3 first-half points the last three games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-13, 47)

Bucs’ offensive penalties vs. Superdome crowd

The Saints are a completely different team in the Big Easy and a lot of that has to do with the environment. The Superdome crowds are not only giving New Orleans some extra energy on offense but have helped the defense limit opponents to just 15.4 points per home game – third lowest – compared to 22.4 points per road game.

The Superdome faithful narrowly missed the record for the loudest indoor crowd earlier this month and will be a bug in the ear of Bucs’ rookie QB Mike Glennon all game. Tampa Bay has been one of the least disciplined offensive lines in the NFL, getting flagged for delay of game nine times – tied for most in the NFL – for a total of 40 yards lost this season. The Buccaneers have also been whistled for 15 false starts and 23 holds equaling 227 yards lost – second most in the NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-9.5, 45)

Chiefs’ bench vs. Chargers’ playoff push

Andy Reid is toying with the idea of resting his starters against the Chargers in Week 17, and by the looks of this spread, oddsmakers are expecting the Chiefs head coach to do just that. Reid told the media he could play his backups Sunday, much like he did when he was on the sidelines in Philadelphia. With Kansas City inked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoffs, there is no need to risk injury in the finale.

The Bolts, on the other hand, are hoping for a Xmas miracle. San Diego can make the postseason cut with a win over Kansas City and losses to the Ravens and Dolphins. However, those games kickoff at 1 p.m. ET and the Chargers could know their fate ahead to this 4:25 p.m. ET start. San Diego already has a win over the Chiefs in Arrowhead, stealing a 41-38 victory on a TD in the dying moments back in November.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5, 52.5)

Eagles’ run defense vs. Cowboys’ RB DeMarco Murray

The Eagles may have dodged a bullet with the back injury to Dallas QB Tony Romo heading into this win-and-in NFC East showdown. But, on the other hand, Philadelphia may face a caged beast in the form of Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray. Murray is pissed with his role in the Dallas offense, after watching his dominant first-half efforts go to waste due to careless play calling in the second half. He’s second in the NFL in yards per carry - 5.4 ypc – and is 10th in the NFL in total yards on the ground despite sitting 19th in rushing attempts.

Sure, Murray has taken advantage of all the space Romo creates but he will be going up against an Eagles defense that ranks 30th in the league - 392.7 yards against per game. Philadelphia has been bullied by runners in its six losses this season, including giving up three rushing TDs to the Vikings’ third-stringer two weeks ago. Murray will get plenty of touches and could take a season’s worth of frustration out on the Eagles Sunday night.

**Udog** · 12-26-2013, 11:23 AM

NBA
Dunkel

LA Clippers at Portland
The Clippers look to bounce back from Christmas night's 105-103 loss to Golden State as they stay on the road against a Portland team that is coming off a 110-107 win over New Orleans and is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games after giving up more than 100 points in the previous game. LA is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blazers favored by just 1. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+4 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 26

Game 501-502: Atlanta at Cleveland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 121.845; Cleveland 115.179
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 2; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-2); Under

Game 503-504: Memphis at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 114.883; Houston 120.223
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 5 1/2; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 8; 197
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+8); Over

Game 505-506: San Antonio at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.314; Dallas 118.573
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 5 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 2 1/2; 208
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-2 1/2); Under

Game 507-508: LA Clippers at Portland (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 125.237; Portland 125.935
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 1; 218
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 4 1/2; 212
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+4 1/2); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, December 26

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ATLANTA (15 - 13) at CLEVELAND (10 - 17) - 12/26/2013, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 43-65 ATS (-28.5 Units) in road games in December games since 1996.
ATLANTA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 4-4 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 6-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (12 - 15) at HOUSTON (19 - 11) - 12/26/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
MEMPHIS is 67-53 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 5-4 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 5-4 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (22 - 7) at DALLAS (16 - 12) - 12/26/2013, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 62-47 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 295-231 ATS (+40.9 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 137-100 ATS (+27.0 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
DALLAS is 207-163 ATS (+27.7 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
DALLAS is 432-363 ATS (+32.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 118-89 ATS (+20.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 95-71 ATS (+16.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 120-80 ATS (+32.0 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 6-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 6-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (20 - 10) at PORTLAND (23 - 5) - 12/26/2013, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 192-249 ATS (-81.9 Units) after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 38-23 ATS (+12.7 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PORTLAND is 55-90 ATS (-44.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 4-3 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 6-2 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, December 26

Hot teams
-- Hawks won three of last four games, covered seven of last ten.
-- Spurs won six of their last seven road games.
-- Clippers won five of their last six games. Portland won six of last seven games, failed to cover last four.

Cold Teams
-- Cleveland lost four of its last five games; underdogs are 10-3 against spread in their home games.
-- Rockets are 0-6 vs spread in game following last six wins. Memphis is 3-5 vs spread as a road underdog.
-- Dallas covered twice in its last seven games as a home favorite.

Series records
-- Hawks won ten of last twelve games with Cleveland.
-- Grizzlies lost eight of last nine visits to Houston.
-- Spurs won five in row, nine of last eleven against Dallas.
-- Clippers won five of last six games with Portland.

Totals
-- Six of last eight Atlanta-Cleveland games went over.
-- Under is 7-2 in Grizzlies' last nine visits to Houston.
-- Five of Spurs' last six games went over the total.
-- Last six Portland games went over the total.

NBA

Thursday, December 26

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CLEVELAND
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

8:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Memphis's last 6 games when playing Houston
Memphis is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing Houston
Houston is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games at home

8:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games at home

10:30 PM
LA CLIPPERS vs. PORTLAND
LA Clippers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Portland
LA Clippers5-0-1 SU in their last 6 games
Portland is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 5 games

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NBA

Thursday, December 26

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Hawks at Cavaliers: What bettors need to know
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Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers (+1, 200)

The Atlanta Hawks may have the third-best record in the Eastern Conference but they have been woeful on the road entering Thursday’s visit to Cleveland to face the Cavaliers. Atlanta is just 4-9 away from home and has lost five straight since posting a road victory over the Detroit Pistons on Nov. 22. The Cavaliers have an 8-5 home mark but are coming off their worst in-town showing of the season, a 115-92 defeat against the Detroit Pistons on Monday.

Cleveland will be looking to shake off back-to-back losing efforts by an average of 19.5 points when they entertain the Hawks. Coach Mike Brown was highly dejected after the team’s second straight miserable outing. “The mental approach is probably tougher than the physical approach,” Brown said. “We haven’t arrived. We’re getting hit in the mouth right now and I’m interested to see if we can respond the right way.” Atlanta lost in overtime to the Miami Heat on Monday despite making 17 3-pointers – tying for second-most in franchise history – including a career-best seven from Paul Millsap.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, SportSouth (Atlanta), FSN Ohio (Cleveland)

POWER RANKINGS: Hawks (-8.8) - Cavaliers (-3.5) + Home court (-3.0) = Hawks -2.3

ABOUT THE HAWKS (15-13, 17-11 ATS): Center Al Horford is averaging a career-best 18.3 points and looks on his way to the third All-Star appearance of his career. Horford has played superbly over the last six games, posting four double-doubles and averaging 23.2 points and 9.5 rebounds. Millsap is averaging 16.7 points and opening eyes with his sudden ability to knock down 3-point shots. After making just 31 in seven seasons with the Utah Jazz, the 6-8 forward has made 30 this season while shooting an impressive 45.5 percent from behind the arc, eighth-best in the NBA.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (10-17, 10-17 ATS): Point guard Kyrie Irving figures to have plenty of motivation after going scoreless on 0-for-9 shooting against the Hawks earlier this month. Since that horrific performance, Irving has scored 20 or more points in six of eight games while averaging 25.8 points. He has three 30-point outings during the stretch that has raised his season mark to 21.5. Irving was among the dismayed players after the Detroit loss. “We’re just not being physical enough; that’s what it basically boils down to,” he said. “We’re just not starting off the games in the right way like we normally do.”

TRENDS:

* Hawks are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Cleveland.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
* Hawks are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
* Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Horford had 22 points and nine rebounds to help the Hawks post the 108-89 home win over Cleveland on Dec. 6.

2. Cavaliers G Dion Waiters (wrist) has missed three consecutive games.

3. Atlanta leads the NBA in assists per game (25.7) and has had least 20 in 26 of its 28 games.

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**Kaptain** · 12-26-2013, 07:13 PM

thanks U DOG

Announcement

Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 12/26 (NBA, NCAAB, NHL, Misc.)

Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 12/26 (NBA, NCAAB, NHL, Misc.)

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