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Monday's Trends and Indexes - 12/23 (NBA, NCAAB, NHL, Misc.)

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  • #16
    NHL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Monday, December 23


    Hot teams
    -- Anaheim won its last eight games. Washington won three of last four at home.
    -- Penguins won their last seven games, allowing 13 goals.
    -- Red Wings won last two games, after losing previous six.
    -- Lightning won its last four games, allowing six goals. Florida won five of last six.
    -- Flyers won their last eight home games.
    -- Chicago won five of last seven games. Devils won three of their last four.
    -- Bruins won five of their last seven games.
    -- Blues won five of their last seven games.
    -- Los Angeles won nine of its last ten games.
    -- San Jose won seven of its last eight home games.

    Cold teams
    -- Buffalo lost six of its last nine games. Coyotes lost three of their last four.
    -- Maple Leafs/Rangers both lost six of their last eight games.
    -- Carolina lost five of its last six games. Blue Jackets lost three of their last four.
    -- Senators lost four of their last five games.
    -- Islanders lost 13 of their last 15 games.
    -- Minnesota lost five of its last six road games.
    -- Nashville lost its last three games, scoring six goals.
    -- Calgary lost its last four games, three by one goal.
    -- Edmonton lost its last six games, outscored 24-6. Jets lost five of their last seven games.
    -- Dallas Stars lost four of their last five road games.
    -- Colorado lost three of its last four away games.

    Totals
    -- Six of last eight Phoenix games stayed under the total.
    -- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers' last five games.
    -- Five of last six Washington games went over total.
    -- Over is 5-0-1 in last six Columbus games.
    -- Four of last five Ottawa games went over the total.
    -- Seven of last nine Detroit games stayed under total.
    -- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Tampa Bay games.
    -- Five of last seven Philly-Minnesota games stayed under.
    -- Last three Chicago games stayed under the total.
    -- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Boston games.
    -- Five of last six St Louis games went over the total; eight of last ten Calgary games stayed under the total.
    -- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Winnipeg games.
    -- Last three Dallas games stayed under the total.
    -- Under is 4-1-2 in last seven San Jose games.

    Series records
    -- Sabres won five of last six games with Phoenix.
    -- Rangers won four of last five games with Toronto.
    -- Ducks lost four of last five games with Washington.
    -- Blue Jackets won their last five games with Carolina.
    -- Penguins won seven of last eight games with Ottawa.
    -- Islanders won five of last six games with Detroit.
    -- Lightning won nine of last eleven games with Florida.
    -- Flyers won five of last seven games with Minnesota.
    -- Devils-Chicago split their last six meetings.
    -- Bruins won four of last five games with Nashville.
    -- Blues won five of last six games with Calgary.
    -- Jets won three of last five games with Edmonton.
    -- Kings won three of last four games with Dallas.
    -- Sharks won four of last five games with Colorado.

    Comment


    • #17
      NCAAB
      Armadillo's Write-Up

      Monday, December 23


      Loyola is 0-4 on road, losing by 5-6-1-4 points; they're 4-6 playing the 5th-easiest schedule in US. Ramblers turn ball over 20.8% of time while playing 13th-slowest tempo in country. #190 Fordham is actually 2nd-best team they've played this year; Rams are 4-1 at home, losing to 2-10 Sacred Heart- they got upset at Monmouth Saturday, in game they led by 13 with 12:05 left.

      Colorado State has five new starters from LY; they've been off for last 12 days after getting upset here by Denver. Rams won by 27-14 in their two games vs teams outside top 200- they lost 64-55 at UIC LY, a game State shot just 33% in but led by 8 in second half. Ill-Chicago is 3-7 vs D-I teams, losing by point to Riverside on first game of this road trip.

      Oregon State allowed 88 ppg in losing last two games away from home; Beavers' star Nelson (20 pts) was only guy to play more than 27:00 vs Akron Sunday. George Mason turns ball over 21.7% of time, lost five of last six games- they're 1-4 away from home, with only win over Lamar, #331 team. Patriots only played one guy more than 25 minutes Sunday.

      9-0 Iowa State had 22-7 edge on foul line in 79-67 win vs George Mason yesterday; Cyclones played all five starters between 30-35 minutes, are 3-0 vs top 100 teams, winning by 7-2-3 points. Akron won its last five games but #118 Oregon State is best team they've beaten. Zips played three starters 31+ minutes Sunday, making 10-26 from arc vs Beavers.

      South Carolina shot 58% in stunning upset of 9-1 St Mary's; Carolina lost its previous game to SC-Upstate. Two Gamecocks played 34-36:00; none of others played more than 29. Boise State hung on to beat Hawai'i by point in nightcap, despite not scoring in last 0:59; Broncos made 9-18 on arc- two guys played 34/38:00; no one else played more than 29:00.

      St Mary's gets true road game at Hawai'i after losing last night; Gaels are 9-1, winning by 8 at Boise State in only true road game. St Mary's is #7 in country, making 42.8% from arc. Hawai'i used four starters 30:00+ in tough loss to Boise; Warriors are 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 1-7-12 points. St Mary's two best players played 37/39:00 in loss last night.

      Fourth game in seven nights for South Florida team whose last six were all decided by 5 or less points; Bulls turned ball over 18 times (-5), lost lost 71-66 to Miss State- they only used two subs more than 4 minutes. Santa Clara is 0-4 vs teams in top 200, losing by 15-6-11-21; they got run out of gym by UNLV, which shot 60.7% for game. Only two guys on Santa Clara played more than 29:00.

      9-2 Mississippi State has played easiest schedule in country so far this season- they lost by 19 at Utah State in only true road game. UNLV played three subs 20+ minutes in easy win last night; Rebels are 7-0 vs teams outside top 100, 0-4 vs top 100 teams. Miss State is #175; they survived 16-25 foul shooting in 71-66 win. This game is in Vegas, but at Orleans Arena, couple miles from campus.

      First game in 15 days, first home game in 34 days for 3-8 Siena team that played #57 schedule in US with team ranked #339 in experience; Saints turn ball over 21.7% of time, shoot only 31.2% from arc. Hofstra is 3-6 with 6th-least experienced team; they lost by 29 at Louisville, but 11 in OT at Richmond, in its only two true road games. This is first game in eight days and second in 19 days for Hofstra.

      Tennessee lost last two games, scoring 59.5 ppg; Vols are 4-0 vs teams outside top 100, winning by 9-26-21-21 points- they're #5 in country at rebounding their own missed shots, but at 30% from arc, there are too many of them. Morehead State is 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing at UCLA by 11, Southern Miss by 14, Xavier by 23- they scored 120 points in last game, avenging LY's loss to South Dakota, 120-83.

      SE Missouri State won 76-68 at IUPUI Nov 16, forcing 18 turnovers in game where both sides shot 53%+ inside arc; Redhawks are 5-2 against teams outside top 200, losing at home to UIC nine days ago, its only home game vs D-I opponent. IUPUI lost its last three games, scoring 55.7 ppg; Jaguars are 2-10 vs D-I teams, 1-5 on road, with losses by 8-2-14-36-20 points.

      Southern Illinois beat Ball State 66-58 in first game since Hinson's tirade went viral; Salukis force turnovers 20.6% of time, but have six losses by 9 or less points. Edwardsville lost last three games by 1-20-17 points; they turn ball over 21.6% of time- teams shoot 55.9% inside arc against them. SIU won by 16-23 points in last two games with Edwardsville.

      UTEP lost at home to #319 New Orleans last week, then beat couple of top 180 teams over weekend; Miners are getting to foul line enough but make only 68.2% once they get there. Montana State won its last three games but two were non-D-I games- they also won at Portland, the best team (#102) they've played this year. Bobcats are 2-2 on road, losing by 5 at Riverside, 25 at Wyoming.

      Comment


      • #18
        NBA
        Short Sheet

        Monday, December 23


        NY Knicks at Orlando, 7:05 ET
        NY Knicks: 8-1 UNDER as a road underdog
        Orlando: 7-17 ATS against Atlantic division opponents

        Milwaukee at Charlotte, 7:05 ET
        Milwaukee: 1-5 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points
        Charlotte: 7-1 ATS against Central division opponents

        Detroit at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
        Detroit: 19-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games
        Cleveland: 10-23 ATS after scoring 85 points or less

        Atlanta at Miami, 7:35 ET
        Atlanta: 2-13 ATS when playing with 2 days rest
        Miami: 19-9 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins

        Indiana at Brooklyn, 7:35 ET
        Indiana: 15-5 ATS as a favorite
        Brooklyn: 4-13 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less

        Dallas at Houston, 8:05 ET
        Dallas: 20-6 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more
        Houston: 14-20 ATS vs. division opponents

        Utah at Memphis, 8:05 ET
        Utah: 1-11 ATS in road games off a road win
        Memphis: 46-32 ATS as a favorite

        Toronto at San Antonio, 8:35 ET
        Toronto: 57-87 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5
        San Antonio: 22-10 ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs

        Golden State at Denver, 9:05 ET
        Golden State: 9-15 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more
        Denver: 12-6 ATS after a game where they made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse

        LA Lakers at Phoenix, 9:05 ET
        LA Lakers: 22-40 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days
        Phoenix: 6-1 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4 games

        New Orleans at Sacramento, 10:05 ET
        New Orleans: 31-14 ATS in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses
        Sacramento: 0-7 ATS as a home favorite

        Comment


        • #19
          NHL
          Short Sheet

          Monday, December 23


          Anaheim at Washington, 7:05 ET
          Anaheim: 10-2 SU off a road win
          Washington: 13-24 SU in home games off a home loss against a division rival

          Phoenix at Buffalo, 7:05 ET
          Phoenix: 88-87 SU in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in previous game
          Buffalo: 1-13 SU when playing their 3rd game in 5 days

          Columbus at Carolina, 7:05 ET
          Columbus: 0-8 SU after 2 or more consecutive overs
          Carolina: 62-41 SU after losing their previous game in overtime

          Toronto at NY Rangers, 7:05 ET
          Toronto: 202-190 SU after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread
          NY Rangers: 4-9 SU in home games after playing a home game

          Pittsburgh at Ottawa, 7:35 ET
          Pittsburgh: 20-6 SU off a win or tie in their previous game
          Ottawa: 7-14 SU in home games

          NY Islanders at Detroit, 7:35 ET
          NY Islanders: 4-14 SU after having lost 2 of their last 3 games
          Detroit: 16-3 SU in home games after a 2 game unbeaten streak

          Minnesota at Philadelphia, 7:35 ET
          Minnesota: 4-16 SU in road games in non-conference games
          Philadelphia: 37-21 SU after 1 or more consecutive losses

          Tampa Bay at Florida, 7:35 ET
          Tampa Bay: 10-3 SU when playing their 4th game in 7 days
          Florida: 61-110 SU after having won 3 of their last 4

          Boston at Nashville, 8:05 ET
          Boston: 13- SU after a division game
          Nashville: 7-0 SU in non-conference games

          New Jersey at Chicago, 8:05 ET
          New Jersey: 13-7 SU in non-conference games
          Chicago: 12-4 ST after 1 or more consecutive unders

          St Louis at Calgary, 8:05 ET
          St Louis: 12-6 SU when playing their 3rd game in 5 days
          Calgary: 4-12 SU after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

          Winnipeg at Edmonton, 9:35 ET
          Winnipeg: 20-10 SU after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game
          Edmonton: 5-17 SU after 2 or more consecutive overs

          Colorado at San Jose, 10:35 ET
          Colorado: 8-12 SU after a close loss by 1 goal in their previous game
          San Jose: 10-1 SU off a home win

          Dallas at LA Kings, 10:35 ET
          Dallas: 182-106 SU off a road loss
          LA Kings: 2-8 SU in home games off a close home win by 1 goal

          Comment


          • #20
            NCAAB
            Short Sheet

            Monday, December 23


            LOYOLA-IL is 1-7 ATS after a non-conference game

            FORDHAM is 16-7 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in a week

            IL-CHICAGO is 13-5 ATS after 3 consecutive non-conference games

            COLORADO ST is 5-14 ATS after playing a home game

            SIENA is 12-26 ATS after 2 games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers

            MOREHEAD ST is 1-9 ATS in road games after playing a game as favorite

            SE MISSOURI ST is 10-23 ATS in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more

            SIU EDWARDSVL is 9-1 ATS after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games

            S ILLINOIS is 26-43 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points

            UTEP is 15-6 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games

            N ARIZONA is 17-32 ATS as an underdog

            ARIZONA is 8-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins

            Comment


            • #21
              Thanks U Dog


              Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

              Comment


              • #22
                Merry Christmas U-dog--I really appreciate all your good work--read you everyday. AND---I agree with your cabbie 100%--STINKIN BROWNS...@@#&%#!!!.........................

                Comment


                • #23
                  Merry christmas dog to you and your family......................
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Kaptain View Post
                    Thanks U Dog
                    Originally posted by RS170 View Post
                    Merry Christmas U-dog--I really appreciate all your good work--read you everyday. AND---I agree with your cabbie 100%--STINKIN BROWNS...@@#&%#!!!.........................
                    Originally posted by StarDust Bum View Post
                    Merry christmas dog to you and your family......................
                    Thanks, guys! Here's to another great year!!

                    Last edited by Udog; 12-23-2013, 05:40 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      NFL Opening Line Report: Parity makes Week 17 worth it

                      Week 17 of the NFL season is usually a mess.

                      You have a handful of games with playoff implications while the majority of the card is loaded with teams just finishing up a lost season or resting their stars before the postseason.

                      But, thanks to the vast amount of parity in the NFL this season, Week 17 is no longer the most feared week for books and bettors. It could just be one of the best weeks ever.

                      “When you have incentive, the line is easier to make,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “All those rankings and stats we look at make sense. You’re not wondering about who is playing hard or protecting their assets.”

                      All but a few of the Week 17 games have some sort of say in how the playoff picture is painted, including two divisional matchups that hold a golden ticket to the tournament for whichever team wins Sunday.

                      The NFC East title is on the line when the Philadelphia Eagles visit the Dallas Cowboys. Korner says his team of oddsmakers had the Cowboys as the early favorites before the Eagles thumped the Bears on Sunday night. Now, this game is being dealt with Philadelphia as a 2.5-point favorite. Despite Dallas’ tendency to tank in these must-win games, the line is based strictly on current form.

                      “We’re factoring in what just happened,” says Korner. “Dallas squeaked one out and the Eagles were on national TV romping. I think Philly as a small favorite is the way to go.”

                      As for the NFC North, the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers duke it out for the division. Korner sent out a suggested line of Chicago -5 with Packers QB Aaron Rodgers out.

                      If Rodgers does return for the first time since breaking his collarbone in Week 9, this line will rise – but maybe not as much as bettors would think. Most weeks, Rodgers would be worth at least a touchdown. But at less than 100 percent, Rodgers impact on the spread declines.

                      “I don’t know if the bettors will let us have too big of a jump,” Korner says. “I don’t think (Rodgers) is worth as much in a one-game situation where it could disrupt the flow that (backup QB Matt) Flynn may have. And he’s not healthy. If he would be a 100 percent Sunday, he would have been 100 percent this past game when they really needed him.”

                      Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-13, 47)

                      The Saints need to win in order to punch their passport to the playoffs. New Orleans hasn’t looked like a Super Bowl contender in recent weeks but comes back to the Superdome, where its offense is averaging 32.9 points compared to 17.8 points on the road.

                      “We sent out 13.5 on this,” says Korner. “This is a game New Orleans is going to want to get out to a big lead and just cost from there. I think that the way bettors see this, the Saints need the win and they’re going to draw the money. And we don’t want to be cheap on any team that needs the win.”

                      Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5, 44.5)

                      Both teams need to win Sunday. Cincinnati already has the AFC North locked up but can vastly improve its playoff seeding with a victory and some outside help. Baltimore is scratching and clawing for a AFC Wild Card spot after an embarrassing loss to New England Sunday.

                      “We sent out this at Bengals -7.5. The -5.5 is way too low,” says Korner. “Cincinnati isn’t relaxing. It may be more important for them to win and improve their playoff rankings. I know Baltimore needs to win but coming off a horrible loss and being on the road – I just don’t think they show up as much as Cincinnati will.”

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        NFL line watch Week 17 betting: Jump on Giants vs. Redskins

                        Spread to bet now

                        Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5)

                        Has there been a more bizarre NFL team in recent years than the Redskins? Washington started its season with controversy about its nickname and will likely finish it with eight straight losses. The last time the Redskins won, we were still eating Halloween candy.

                        Washington lugs a 3-12 record (1-6 on the road) into New Jersey this Sunday, with Mike Shanahan coaching his final game for the team. The only thing that smells halfway decent about this one from the Skins’ perspective is the short commute. Don’t be sucked by the half a point or the Giants’ overall lousy play. New York is actually 6-3 since its nightmare 0-6 start and should cover. Jump quickly on this one.


                        Spread to wait on

                        Buffalo Bills (+8.5) at New England Patriots

                        This one might be a game-time decision for bettors, because there are a lot of moving parts at the top of the AFC playoff picture. At 1 p.m. ET, the 10-5 Bengals play at home against Baltimore in a game Cincinnati absolutely has to win to have a shot at the No. 2 AFC seed, which comes with a home game and a bye.

                        If the Bengals get it done, the 11-4 Patriots will have to hold serve in their 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff against the Bills in order to keep that No. 2 seed for themselves because Cincy won their head-to-head battle. New England also has an outside shot at the top seed in the AFC, but Denver would have to go down at Oakland. Best to see how the Bengals are doing around 3:45 p.m. ET. Then if you can, move before the numbers or vig changes on this game.


                        Total to watch

                        Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (43.5)

                        Have you also noticed that scores are coming down? The results, no doubt, are inflated O/U totals and the cold weather. Heading into Monday night the Under had carried in 11 of 15 games during Week 16. With depressed posted totals for Week 17 (only two games in the 50s – Detroit at Minnesota and Denver at Oakland), the pendulum appears to have swung back for the final weekend of the season.

                        That has created a buying opportunity on the Browns-Steelers game. Until this past Sunday, Cleveland averaged nearly 30 points in its previous three games. The Steelers, meanwhile, have had no problem scoring points at home. With a modest 43.5 on the board, an Over play looks solid.

                        Comment

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