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good luck guys. May add NYG, Indy. Love philly but unsure if they will play all their starters if Dallas wins.
Based on 1-5*
2* Oakland +10
I lost with Oakland last week and it's hard to get back on the Raiders again, but in my opinion this is one key factor that separates the sharp bettors from the recreational bettor. SD's passing offense is strong (8.4 YPPA), but their other stats are terrible. They average only 3.9 YPR (23rd) and defensively they are very bad. They allow 4.7 YPR (30th) and they are dead last in YPPA (8.3 YPPA). I don't hold too much weight in the final score on Oak/KC last week because Oak was -5 in TO ratio. Oakland allows 3.8 YPR and 7.9 YPPA. Offensively they are above average gaining 4.7 YPR and 7.2 YPPA (12th). There are GREAT trends favoring the Raiders. One is 44-16 ATS playing AGAINST the Chargers for beating a division team as a big dog last week. Another trend that favors the Raiders is the following: teams with a win percentage >.250 are 15-48-2 ATS the week after winning SU as road dog of 10+ (SD), including 2-19-1 ATS if facing a division opponent! Don't worry about playoff motivation either, it is overrated and often there is value going against this because the line is shaded toward the playoff contender. In fact, teams out of playoff contention are 90-55-4 ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season when facing a team that must win to stay alive in the playoff hunt (also plays on NYG this week). My calculated line is SD -8 so the value is on Oakland. Oak town!
2* Buffalo +3
These teams are nearly equal statistically and my calculated line is Miami -0.5. I think this line is shaded because Miami beat NE last week and Miami is fighting for a playoff spot. Often you will hear analysts say "Team X gave up" late in the year, but I have a great trend that refutes this. Teams with a losing record (Buff) are 132-87-1 ATS in week 16 vs. teams with a win percentage of .500 or better. Buffalo is 17th in YPR and defensively they are 23rd in YPR and 9th in YPPA allowed. Miami is middle of the road in all statistical categories. They are 15th in YPR and 20th in YPPA. Defensively, they allow 6.9 YPPA (10th) and 4.2 YPR (18th). I like the Bills with the inflated number here.
Based on 1-5*
2* Oakland +10
I lost with Oakland last week and it's hard to get back on the Raiders again, but in my opinion this is one key factor that separates the sharp bettors from the recreational bettor. SD's passing offense is strong (8.4 YPPA), but their other stats are terrible. They average only 3.9 YPR (23rd) and defensively they are very bad. They allow 4.7 YPR (30th) and they are dead last in YPPA (8.3 YPPA). I don't hold too much weight in the final score on Oak/KC last week because Oak was -5 in TO ratio. Oakland allows 3.8 YPR and 7.9 YPPA. Offensively they are above average gaining 4.7 YPR and 7.2 YPPA (12th). There are GREAT trends favoring the Raiders. One is 44-16 ATS playing AGAINST the Chargers for beating a division team as a big dog last week. Another trend that favors the Raiders is the following: teams with a win percentage >.250 are 15-48-2 ATS the week after winning SU as road dog of 10+ (SD), including 2-19-1 ATS if facing a division opponent! Don't worry about playoff motivation either, it is overrated and often there is value going against this because the line is shaded toward the playoff contender. In fact, teams out of playoff contention are 90-55-4 ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season when facing a team that must win to stay alive in the playoff hunt (also plays on NYG this week). My calculated line is SD -8 so the value is on Oakland. Oak town!
2* Buffalo +3
These teams are nearly equal statistically and my calculated line is Miami -0.5. I think this line is shaded because Miami beat NE last week and Miami is fighting for a playoff spot. Often you will hear analysts say "Team X gave up" late in the year, but I have a great trend that refutes this. Teams with a losing record (Buff) are 132-87-1 ATS in week 16 vs. teams with a win percentage of .500 or better. Buffalo is 17th in YPR and defensively they are 23rd in YPR and 9th in YPPA allowed. Miami is middle of the road in all statistical categories. They are 15th in YPR and 20th in YPPA. Defensively, they allow 6.9 YPPA (10th) and 4.2 YPR (18th). I like the Bills with the inflated number here.
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