NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (Thursday, December 12 - Monday, December 16)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, December 12 - Monday, December 16

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matchup Links

Sagarin NFL Power Ratings

NFL Matchups

NFL Stats Center

NFL Hot or Not

NFL Trends

NFL News and Weather

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NFL Opening Line Report: Oddsmakers padding postseason pushes

This point of the NFL season can be especially tricky for books and bettors, with teams in pursuit of the playoffs either bursting with added motivation or crumbling under the postseason pressure.

There can be good value spotting a team going all out down the stretch, which is why oddsmakers aren’t ashamed to say their padding the lines for those must-win games.

“As we go into the final few weeks, we really want to hedge higher on those teams fighting for the playoffs,” says Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club. “This is time of year we admit to adding a couple points to those teams that really need a win.”

There are plenty of games on the Week 15 schedule with postseason implications, including a AFC West war between the San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football.

Offshore books opened this line as low as Denver -10.5, but Korner says the Broncos need a win as much as any team right now. His oddsmakers sent out a suggested line of Denver -13, knowing the Broncos are motivated to clinch home-field advantage for the postseason – a key component to their Super Bowl plans.

“Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning but the Broncos poured it on against the Titans,” says Korner. “We sent out Denver -13 and saw that there were some 10’s out there – I don’t understand that line. There’s no need to be low on the highest-scoring team in the NFL. It’s going to be cold in Denver and San Diego isn’t going to like that. I don’t think we’re overpricing the Broncos. It’s just a better line.”


New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+2)

The Patriots will be without star tight end Rob Gronkowski for the remainder of the season after he shredded his knee in Sunday’s thrilling win over Cleveland. According to Korner, Gronkowski is worth as much as two points to New England’s spreads.

“He’s a big hit to take and we’ve seen that already this year, with how poorly the Patriots played without him,” Korner says of Gronkowski. “He’s a point in a half, maybe even a two full point bump right off the bat. We’ve seen this offense struggle without him.”

Korner’s oddsmakers brought spread of New England -2 and -3 to the table, so they sent out the Patriots as 2.5-point road favorites in Miami.

“This is going to be a big dog play with the public,” he says. “Miami does need this game and could win straight up. Bettors are looking at how New England stalled versus Cleveland and needed a lucky hometown call to win the game. I just think dog players are going to be all over this one.”


Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (N/A)

The Packers continue to play the waiting game on star QB Aaron Rodgers. Korner says they sent out Dallas -2.5 with Rodgers in the lineup and would suggest Dallas -8.5 or -9 if he is ruled out again while recovering from his broken collarbone.

“He’s a full six or seven points,” Korner says of Rodgers impact on this spread. “Green Bay is trying to stay in the mix and they want to play him if they can. He wants to play if he can. The line somewhat depends on how Dallas does (Monday). But with that game in the cold on the road, it may not matter much overall.”


Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions (-6)

Both the Ravens and Lions played in crazy snow games this past Sunday, but will nice and warm inside Ford Field on Monday Night Football.

Korner is expecting a heated primetime clash between two teams in the playoff hunt and sent out Detroit as a 3.5-point home favorite while offshores posted a bigger number at Lions -6.

“This is a must-win for both teams, so we sent it out pretty much at the pick’em when you factor the home field,” he says. “With weather not being a factor and them playing on a fast track indoors, we’ll see the true colors of both teams.”

[Udog]

NFL line watch: Colts backers should act fast

Spread to bet now

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-6)

If you like the Colts to bounce back from their 42-28 drubbing in Cincinnati last week and hand the Texans a 12th straight loss, I'd recommend jumping on this line as soon as possible. As of Monday afternoon, there is still a -6 available but 6.5's have already started to become the predominate number, with even a 7 on the board as well.

Indianapolis beat Houston 27-24 back in Week 9, a contest in which it was trailing 21-3 heading into the break. Interestingly, that was the game that ex-Texans head coach Gary Kubiak collapsed at half time with the heart issues (Kubiak of course was sacked after last week's 27-20 setback at Jacksonville).

The end of the season can't come quick enough now for Houston which has clearly thrown in the towel, with games at home versus Denver next week and at Tennessee to finish the year.


Spread to wait on

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)

As mentioned above, Cincinnati had little trouble with Indianapolis last week, thrashing it 42-28. Pittsburgh though would stumble last Sunday, losing 34-28 to Miami in the closing moments, which was on the heels of a hard-fought 22-20 loss at Baltimore in Week 13.

This line opened at +2.5, but sharps have been quick to jump on the high-flying visitors, with +3 pretty much the predominating number now. If you think the home side can stop its two game slide and avenge a 20-10 setback at Cincinnati in Week 2, then I'd recommend waiting a bit closer to kickoff before getting involved.

And if you're a Bengals backer, just keep in mind that playing on the road has been their Achilles' heel for bettors for the last few seasons, coming into this contest at just 2-5-1 ATS their last eight away from friendly confines.


Total to watch

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (46)

Under bettors would be wise to get on this number right now. It opened at 46, which is still being offered at some books, but 45.5 has for the most part been taken over the board.

Whenever these divisional foes get together it has been a battle, as evidenced by the fact that the total has finished Under the number in five of their last six in the series. That wasn't the case back in Week 9 when the Colts stormed back for a 27-24 victory. Indianapolis scored 24 points in the second half, 15 in the fourth quarter.

But the firing of Kubiak is a clear signal that the visitors are planning for next year, and while the home side has locked up the division, there's no question that it will be looking to atone for the dismal defensive effort in Cincinnati last Sunday. Expect this number to continue to fall as the week goes on.

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 15

Thursday, December 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (6 - 7) at DENVER (11 - 2) - 12/12/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
DENVER is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, December 15

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (3 - 10) at ATLANTA (3 - 10) - 12/15/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
WASHINGTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
WASHINGTON is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (9 - 4) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 9) - 12/15/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (8 - 5) at TENNESSEE (5 - 8) - 12/15/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 41-21 ATS (+17.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (10 - 3) at ST LOUIS (5 - 8) - 12/15/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 36-56 ATS (-25.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 134-170 ATS (-53.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 134-170 ATS (-53.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 67-93 ATS (-35.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 96-133 ATS (-50.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 103-136 ATS (-46.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (11 - 2) at NY GIANTS (5 - 8) - 12/15/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 55-83 ATS (-36.3 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (7 - 6) at CLEVELAND (4 - 9) - 12/15/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (2 - 11) at INDIANAPOLIS (8 - 5) - 12/15/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
HOUSTON is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-37 ATS (-22.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (4 - 9) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 9) - 12/15/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (10 - 3) at MIAMI (7 - 6) - 12/15/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 157-119 ATS (+26.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 96-70 ATS (+19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 67-43 ATS (+19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MIAMI is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (8 - 5) at MINNESOTA (3 - 9 - 1) - 12/15/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 156-119 ATS (+25.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (6 - 7) at CAROLINA (9 - 4) - 12/15/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 50-26 ATS (+21.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (10 - 3) at OAKLAND (4 - 9) - 12/15/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 22-40 ATS (-22.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 27-49 ATS (-26.9 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 26-47 ATS (-25.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 3-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (6 - 6 - 1) at DALLAS (7 - 6) - 12/15/2013, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (9 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 8) - 12/15/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 60-88 ATS (-36.8 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, December 16

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (7 - 6) at DETROIT (7 - 6) - 12/16/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 23-42 ATS (-23.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 15

Thursday, December 12

San Diego at Denver, 8:25 ET
San Diego: 0-6 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game
Denver: 11-2 ATS as a home favorite


Sunday, Decemmber 15

Washington at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Washington: 36-20 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Atlanta: 1-13 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread

San Francisco at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 16-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Tampa Bay: 6-0 OVER in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game

Arizona at Tennessee, 4:25 ET
Arizona: 18-6 UNDER as a road favorite
Tennessee: 41-21 ATS in non-conference games

New Orleans at St Louis, 4:25 ET
New Orleans: 21-8 ATS in dome games
St Louis: 34-54 ATS off a road loss

Seattle at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 7-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
NY Giants: 19-8 OVER in home games off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more

Chicago at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Chicago: n/a
Cleveland: n/a

Houston at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Houston: 3-10 ATS in all games
Indianapolis: 6-0 ATS off a road loss

Buffalo at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 9-1 ATS off a road loss
Jacksvonille: 9-1 UNDER in home games against conference opponents

New England at Miami, 1:00 ET
New England: 21-7 ATS in road games off 3 or more consecutive overs
Miami: 9-21 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog

Philadelphia at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 6-15 ATS after playing a game at home
Minnesota: 11-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road

NY Jets at Carolina, 4:05 ET
NY Jets: 2-12 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Caolina: 9-1 ATS off a road loss

Kansas City at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Kansas City: 15-4 UNDER after playing their last game on the road
Oakland: 10-2 UNDER off 4 or more consecutive overs

Green Bay at Dallas, 4:25 ET
Green Bay: n/a
Dallas: n/a

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET
Cincinnati: 60-88 ATS versus division opponents
Pittsburgh: 54-33 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

[Udog]

NFL

Week 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, December 12

8:25 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Denver's last 14 games
Denver is 1-5-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against San Diego


Sunday, December 15

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. ATLANTA
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing San Francisco
Tampa Bay is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing San Francisco

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. CLEVELAND
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Chicago's last 15 games
Cleveland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. NY GIANTS
Seattle is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games
NY Giants are 3-5-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing Seattle
NY Giants are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 10 games at home
Jacksonville is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Houston
Indianapolis is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. MIAMI
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games at home
Miami is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. MINNESOTA
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Minnesota is 3-10-1 SU in its last 14 games ,

4:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. OAKLAND
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games
Oakland is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Oakland is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home

4:05 PM
NY JETS vs. CAROLINA
NY Jets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games
NY Jets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

4:25 PM
ARIZONA vs. TENNESSEE
Arizona is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Arizona is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

4:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 7 of St. Louis's last 9 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 9 games when playing New Orleans

4:25 PM
GREEN BAY vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Green Bay's last 15 games when playing Dallas
Green Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games at home

8:30 PM
CINCINNATI vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Pittsburgh's last 17 games at home


Monday, December 16

8:40 PM
BALTIMORE vs. DETROIT
Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

misfire... hockey stuff in the wrong thread

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 15

San Diego at Denver
The Broncos host a San Diego team Thursday night that is coming off a 37-14 win over the NY Giants and is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Denver is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-10). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 12

Game 301-302: San Diego at Denver (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 131.683; Denver 144.819
Dunkel Line: Denver by 13; 52
Vegas Line: Denver by 10; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-10); Under


SUNDAY, DECEMBER 15

Game 305-306: Washington at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.047; Atlanta 126.751
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 7; 51
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+7); Over

Game 307-308: San Francisco at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 142.470; Tampa Bay 131.314
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 11; 37
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 5; 41
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-5); Under

Game 309-310: Arizona at Tennessee (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 132.556; Tennessee 132.635
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3); Over

Game 311-312: New Orleans at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 134.416; St. Louis 140.301
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 6; 51
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6; 47
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+6); Over

Game 313-314: Seattle at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 142.642; NY Giants 130.535
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 12; 36
Vegas Line: Seattle by 7; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-7); Under

Game 315-316: Chicago at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 132.426; Cleveland 126.851
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 5 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 1; 45
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+1); Over

Game 317-318: Houston at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 121.312; Indianapolis 131.029
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 9 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 5 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-5 1/2); Under

Game 319-320: Buffalo at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 123.571; Jacksonville 128.856
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 5 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+2); Over

Game 321-322: New England at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.322; Miami 134.553
Dunkel Line: New England by 5; 42
Vegas Line: New England by 2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-2); Under

Game 323-324: Philadelphia at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 138.210; Minnesota 127.647
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 10 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 4 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-4 1/2); Under

Game 325-326: NY Jets at Carolina (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 127.040; Carolina 134.622
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 7 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Carolina by 11 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+11 1/2); Over

Game 327-328: Kansas City at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 136.353; Oakland 124.880
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 11 1/2;
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 4; 41
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-4);

Game 329-330: Green Bay at Dallas (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 125.583; Dallas 130.491
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 5; 54
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7; 49
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+7); Over

Game 331-332: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 138.329; Pittsburgh 134.436
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4; 36
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-2 1/2); Under


MONDAY, DECEMBER 16

Game 333-334: Baltimore at Detroit (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.418; Detroit 133.189
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Detroit by 6; 48
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+6); Over

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 15

Thursday's games

Chargers (6-7) @ Broncos (11-2)—Denver is 6-1 as home favorite this year; only non-cover was as 26-point favorite vs Jags (won 35-19); Broncos outscored opponents 176-66 in second half at Mile High, average of 25-9- they won last four games with Chargers, by 3-11-7-8 points, but San Diego won three of last four visits here (lost 30-23 LY). Broncos (-7) won 28-20 at Qualcomm in Week 10, despite losing field position by 12 yards and Bolts outrushing them 131-84; game was 21-6 at half and Denver hung on at end, after Manning tweaked his ankle. Chargers are 3-4 SU on road, 2-1-1 as road dogs, losing away games by 3-10-6-4 points- they’re 1-3-1 vs spread this season in game following a win. Bolts’ 27-17 loss at Oakland in Week 5 is their only loss this year by more than eight points. Broncos’ home wins this season are by 22-16-32-16-24-10-23 points- this is their last home game until the playoffs. In its last two games; they’ve run ball for 188.7 ypg in last three games. Denver had 11 TDs, two 3/outs on 21 drives. AFC West home teams are 5-2 vs spread in divisional games, 3-1 when favored. 11 of 13 Denver games went over total.




NFL

Thursday, December 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Thursday Night Football betting: Chargers at Broncos
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-10.5, 56)

The Denver Broncos can wrap up a perfect home record - and move a step closer to ensuring they stay there throughout the playoffs - with a win over the visiting San Diego Chargers on Thursday. Denver has clinched a playoff spot and has a one-game lead over Kansas City in the AFC West and over New England for the AFC's top seed. "I guess you have some security but our job is not finished," receiver Eric Decker told the team's website. "Winning this division is No. 1, and winning this conference is No. 2."

While the Broncos hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs, their margin of error for home-field advantage is ultra thin by virtue of losing to the Patriots in overtime last month. The Chargers are backed much farther into the corner, sitting one game behind Miami and Baltimore in the race for the last playoff spot. To a man, the Chargers called their 37-14 drubbing of the New York Giants on Sunday their most complete game of the season, and they'll likely need to duplicate it to upset the Broncos in Denver.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The Broncos opened as 10.5-point home faves. The total opened at 55 and is up to 56.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (6-7): San Diego has a glimmer of hope after winning two of his last three but its remaining schedule includes not only the trip to Denver but also a visit from the Chiefs in the season finale. Quarterback Philip Rivers has enjoyed a resurgent season, completing 70.3 percent of his passes for 3,882 yards with 26 TDs and nine interceptions. The defense has given up more than 400 total yards four times and surrendered 397 in a 28-20 home loss to Denver in Week 10, but the Chargers have forced 12 turnovers in their past eight games after just two takeaways in their first five contests.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (11-2): Denver is 7-0 at home, where it has won by an average of 20.4 points after last week's 51-28 triumph over Tennessee. Quarterback Peyton Manning put to rest any concerns about his ability to perform in cold weather, going 39-of-59 for 397 yards and four touchdowns against the Titans with the temperature well below freezing. Manning has a bevy of weapons at his disposal, as the Broncos are the first team in NFL history to have four players with 10 or more touchdowns - Knowshon Moreno (12), Julius Thomas (11), Demaryius Thomas (11) and Wes Welker (10).

TRENDS:

* Chargers are 5-0-4 ATS in their last nine meetings in Denver.
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Denver.
* Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five Thursday games.
* Under is 7-1 in Chargers last eight vs. AFC.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning has recorded 11 games with 300 or more passing yards this season, tying Tom Brady for the second-most in NFL history.

2. Chargers WR Keenan Allen has 61 receptions - a franchise record for a rookie - for 902 yards and five TDs.

3. The Broncos need to score 75 points in their last three games to break the NFL record of 589 set by the 2007 Patriots. They average 39.6.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL

Thursday, December 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tale of the Tape: San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos continue their march toward home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs as they host the San Diego Chargers in the Week 15 Thursday nighter.

Manning and the Broncos also have history in their sights, as they come into the week needing just 75 points to set the single-season scoring record set by the 2007 New England Patriots. The Chargers remain in the playoff hunt, but will need to upend a Denver team that is 7-0 SU at home.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Broncos remain historically dominant on the offensive end, and are coming off a 51-point explosion against a Tennessee pass defense that came into the game as one of the stingiest in the league. Denver averages more than 340 passing yards per contest - easily tops in the league - with Manning racking up 45 touchdowns against just nine interceptions. He has been sacked a league-low 15 times for just 96 yards. The Broncos have also been above-average in the running game, ranked 12th in total yards (1,617) and tied for second in touchdowns (16).

While not on par with the Denver juggernaut, the Chargers have a sensational pass attack in their own right. Led by rejuvenated quarterback Philip Rivers, San Diego boasts the fourth-most passing yards entering Week 15 (3,753) with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The offensive line has done an effective job protecting Rivers for most of the season, yielding 24 sacks. The running game has been the team's offensive weak spot to date, compiling just 1,454 yards - good for 20th in the league - with only seven scores.

Edge: Denver


Defense

Not even Manning's exploits have been able to mask a Denver pass defense that ranks among the worst in the NFL. The Broncos have been torched for 3,566 yards - the fourth-highest total in football - while surrendering 24 touchdowns against 15 interceptions. Denver is in the middle of the pack when it comes to pressuring opposing quarterbacks, registering 34 sacks for 245 yards. The Broncos' run defense has limited the opposition to 1,298 yards - seventh-fewest in the league - but has given up 14 touchdowns. Only five teams have surrendered more.

The Chargers are a suitable match for the Broncos in the pass defense department, allowing the fifth-most yards through 14 weeks - just 99 fewer than division-rival Denver. San Diego has held foes to 20 touchdown passes with nine interceptions, and has racked up 31 sacks totaling 225 yards. The Chargers have been gouged for a league-worst 4.8 yards per carry against, ranking 19th in opposing rushing yards (1,505) and allowing 11 scores on the ground. On the plus side, San Diego held the New York Giants to 92 rushing yards in last week's 37-14 win.

Edge: Even


Special Teams

The Broncos remain one of just a handful of NFL teams with both a kickoff-return and punt-return touchdown. The Broncos average 25.6 yards per kick return - eighth-most in the NFL - but have dipped to 19th in the league in punt-return average (8.5). Denver surrenders the highest kick-return average in football at 29.8 yards, but has limited foes to a reasonable 9.6 yards on 20 punt returns. Matt Prater has been one of the best kickers in the league this season - missing just one field goal - and is coming off an NFL-record 64-yarder in last week's one-sided win over the Titans.

The Chargers' return game has been underwhelming for the most part, ranking 17th in kick-return average (23.2) and 24th in punt-return average (7.6) with a long attempt of 21 yards. San Diego has given up the most total kickoff yards in the league by a wide margin (1,424), but is allowing a less-objectionable 24.1 yards per attempt and hasn't allowed a return longer than 46 yards. Only six teams have allowed fewer yards per punt return than San Diego (7.0). Kicker Nick Novak is 26-for-29 on field-goal attempts, including a 3-for-3 showing against the Giants.

Edge: Denver


Notable Quotable

"Some of this is giving guys opportunities to see what they can do. We try to get better every day and every week as we move closer to the end of the season. Our agenda is to get better every day." - Denver head coach John Fox on the Broncos' defensive personnel turnover

"I'm a firm believer of 'go as long as you can.' I've got no problem with the running back (handling a high volume). We've always played with two (backs) where I've been, from Carolina to Denver to here. We've always told the hot hand to stay in." - Chargers head coach Mike McCoy on giving running back Ryan Mathews 29 carries versus the Giants


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

Where the action is: Total could keep climbing for Chargers-Broncos

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos – Open: -11, Move: -10

Early sharp money jumped on the Bolts at +11, and trimmed the spread to Denver -10.5 – just above the key number. Some books are dealing an even -10 as of Thursday morning.

Since making that adjustment, Stewart says action has been relatively split with 65 percent of the money coming in on the Broncos, who are looking to lock up a playoff spot and home-field advantage in the postseason.

“I have a feeling that as we get closer to gametime, we’re going to be forced to push this number back to Broncos -11,” says Stewart. “But for now, we’re very happy with our position on this game. As is the case with most Broncos games, we’re going to need the dog and we knew that when we originally hung our opener. Seeing that early support on the dog validates to us, that the Chargers are live in this contest and we don’t mind needing them to cover this double-digit spread.”

The total for Thursday’s divisional matchup opened at 56 points and took instant action on the Over, pushing the number to 56.5. The push toward the Over didn’t stop there and books are now dealing this Over/Under as high as 57.5.

“We’ve seen about 85 percent of the money come in on the Over in this contest,” says Stewart. “Unless we see sharp action bet us Under this total, we’re going to be going to 58 at some point later today.”

[Udog]

Inside the stats: NFC vs. AFC continues to play Over

Coaching down the stretch

The final four weeks of the NFL season are tantamount to the stretch run of a Graded Stakes horse race. It’s where all big races are won and lost.

It’s been said that if you don’t have the horse, you won’t win the race. For the most part, this adage is right on the money. More often than not, though, the ride the horse gets by his jockey is what puts the team in the winner’s circle. It’s why good jockeys are almost always atop quality horses in big races.

The same holds true for head coaches in the NFL. They too are the pilots, guiding their team to the wire, with game plans designed for success or failure - whichever the case may be.

From a profit and loss standpoint, listed below are the best and worst current head coaches and their NFL career ATS records during Games 13-16 – minimum four occurrences (current team in parenthesis) heading into the 2013 season. All results are ATS (Against The Spread).

BEST:

Home: Rivera (Car) 4-1
Away: Frazier (Min) 5-1
Favorite: Fox (Den) 16-9-1
Dog: McCarthy (GB) 7-0

WORST:

Home: Garrett (Dal) 2-4
Away: Jim Harbaugh (SF) 1-4
Fav: Garrett (Dal) 1-5
Dog: Reid (KC) 2-4


Pennzoil play

Football teams who have been out gained in each of their last three games are considered to be “leaking oil” when installed as favorites.

These “leaking oil” favorites now stand at 29-33 ATS overall this season, including 21-23 in NCAAF and 8-10 in the NFL.

According to our findings, this week’s only play would be against the Indianapolis Colts in the NFL.


Passing fancy

Here is a list of the league’s Top 10 best passing offenses and worst passing defenses. Play accordingly.

Best Pass Offenses: Denver 341.2, New Orleans 302.8, Detroit 296.5, San Diego 288.7, Chicago 276.8, Atlanta 267.8, Pittsburgh 266.8, New England 265.9, Green Bay 265.5 and Cleveland (surprise) 260.4.

Worst Pass Defenses: Philadelphia 285.3, Minnesota 281.9, Denver 274.3, Washington 256.7, Jacksonville 256.5, Detroit 255.8, NY Jets 254.9, Oakland 250.2, St. Louis 248.9 and Green Bay 246.8.


Red Rover, Red Rover

Despite the Sunday snowstorms in the NFL last week, they did it again.

We’re talking about the wildly successful Over plays on the pro football card with 11 of the 16 games exceeding the total.

The games went Over by an average of 8.9 points. It was easily the highest-scoring week of the season as there were 85 touchdowns on Sunday (an average 6.1 TDs per games).

Last week’s four non-conference game produced a 3-1 winning tally for Over players, moving the season-to-date record to a mind-blowing 44-14 O/U in these games, including 23-4 O/U the last seven weeks.

This week’s Over achievers would be the Arizona at Tennessee, Chicago at Cleveland, N.Y. Jets at Carolina and Baltimore at Detroit (Monday night) game.


Stat of the Week

Texas Tech was 0-5 SU/ATS against fellow bowl teams this season.

[Udog]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 15

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (+7, 41.5)

Seahawks’ early rise vs. East Coast

The Seahawks internal clocks won’t know what hit them when they take the field at MetLife Stadium Sunday. Seattle and New York are scheduled to kick off at 1 p.m. ET, which is 10 a.m. ET back home in the Emerald City. The Seahawks have been able to overcome the time difference this season, going 3-1 SU and ATS in 1 p.m. ET starts but are just 4-4 SU and ATS in those early games over the past two seasons, which says a lot for a team that is 20-9 ATS during that span.

Not only does Seattle need a couple cups of coffee Sunday morning but it will also have to bundle up. Temperatures in East Rutherford are expected to dip below freezing and snow is in Sunday’s forecast. The Seahawks may be used to the rain and warmer winters on the West Coast but didn’t fare well in their last foray in the snow, losing 35-24 to Chicago in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs in 2011.

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (Pick, 45)

Bears’ fourth-quarter scoring vs. Browns’ fourth-quarter collapses

Jay Cutler. Josh McCown. It may not matter who’s under center for the Bears with the way the Browns are buckling in the final frame. Cleveland has failed miserably at closing out games, as evidenced by its letdown loss to New England last Sunday. Granted, the Browns were burned by a terrible pass interference call but there’s no denying the 35 total points allowed in the fourth quarter over their last three games – an average of 11.7 points over the last 15 minutes.

Chicago isn’t slamming the door with defense either, but is managing to offset that with a strong sprint to the finish line on offense. The Bears are fourth in the league in fourth-quarter scoring, averaging eight points in the final frame this season. Chicago didn’t let up on Dallas Monday, tacking on another 10 points in the fourth. Da Bears are also fourth in time of possession percentage in the final 15 minutes, holding on to the pigskin 54.20 percent of the quarter. Cleveland’s 44.91 percent is fourth lowest in the NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5, 41.5)

Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton vs. Steelers’ stigma and primetime jitters

If Andy Dalton is going to get his team back to the playoffs, where they could be a very dangerous Super Bowl sleeper, he’s going to have to overcome two things that have plagued is short career in Cincinnati: the Steelers defense and the primetime spot light.

According to Yahoo!Sports, Dalton has been well below his bar versus Pittsburgh. His 53 percent completions and 67.8 passer rating in five games against the Steelers fall short of his career tallies of 60.8 percent and 85.1. Add to that a 2-3 SU record in primetime games – Cincinnati is 3-11 SU all-time on Sunday Night Football – and Dalton could be walking into a perfect storm in Pittsburgh Sunday night.

Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions (-6, 48)

Ravens’ LB Elvis Dumervil vs. Lions’ turnover troubles

This mismatch could swing to either side, depending on the ankle of Dumervil, who sat out last week’s thriller against Minnesota. Baltimore’s pass rush has been toothless without their newest addition to the linebacking corps. It failed to record a single sack against the Vikings, allowing Matt Cassel to throw for 265 yards and two TDs Sunday, and has just three sacks total in the past three games. Dumervil, who leads the team with 9.5 sacks, is questionable but holding out hope for a return in Week 15.

Without their top sack master, the Ravens may not be able to get to Lions QB Matt Stafford. Stafford has been at the center of Detroit’s three-game losing skid, throwing six interceptions during that skid. He had a clean sheet in last Sunday’s snow ball with the Eagles, but only threw the ball 25 times – his fewest attempts all season – and didn’t face any pass rush in that blizzard. If Dumervil is ready to go, that pressure could force more mistakes from Stafford.

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 15

Redskins (3-10) @ Falcons (3-10)— Washington will start Cousins here- they've shut RGIII down for year. How is Atlanta favored by six points over anyone? They’ve lost six of last seven games, haven’t won game by more than 8 points all year. Falcons are 2-4 at home, 2-2 vs spread when favored, but last time they were favored was Week 7. Atlanta’s last three games were all decided by 4 or less points; last week they became first team (1-3-1) to lose to Rodgers-less Packers. Redskins lost last five games while allowing average of 30.8 ppg. Skins allowed two special teams TDs in snow at home last week; they’ve scored 12.3 ppg in last four games, with five TDs on last 48 drives, with 20 3/outs- they allowed five TD drives of less than 50 yards in last three games. Washington is 0-2 on carpet this year, losing by 15-7 in domes at Dallas/Minnesota. Falcons won last three series games by 10-14-7 points; last time they lost to Redskins was 2003. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 9-6-1 vs spread, 8-2-1 at home. NFC East underdogs are 5-10, 4-7 on road. Three of last four Washington games stayed under the total.

49ers (9-4) @ Buccaneers (4-9)—Niners pulled out slugfest with Seattle last week, still lead race for second Wild Card spot; they’ve won last three games, giving up 12 ppg (3 TDs on 33 drives). 49ers were held to 9 or less points in three of four losses, with only exception 23-20 loss in Superdome. Bucs won four of last five games, covered five of last six; they won last three home games, after losing first four, two which were by 2-3 points. Tampa was even in turnovers in each of first six games; in seven games sice, they’re+13, with 19 takeaways in last six games- they won at Detroit, led 21-7 at half in Seattle, so they’ve improved, but last week was first time in last nine games they held team under 19 points. 49ers won field position in nine of 13 games and lost three of four teams they did not- they’ve won 16 of 21 series games, hammering Bucs 48-3 in last meeting two years ago; this is their first visit to Tampa since 2004. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 14-5-1 vs spread, 6-1 on road. NFC South underdogs are 9-8 vs spread, 2-3 at home. Last five 49er games, last three Tampa Bay games stayed under total.

Seahawks (11-2) @ Giants (5-8)—Super Bowl is in Swamp Stadium in seven weeks; Seahawks need to keep winning to wrap home field edge thru NFC playoffs so they can get back here then, and their home edge is significant. While Seahawks are 5-2 SU on road, their wins are by 5-3-12-5-23 points, with losses at Indy/SF- they’re 4-2 as road favorites, but just as easily could’ve lost to Texans/Rams/ Falcons on road, all non-playoff teams. Giants had won four in row after 0-6 start, but Week 12 loss to Dallas burst their bubble; in last two weeks, they fell behind Redskins 14-0 but rallied to beat dysfunctional Skins, then got blasted by Chargers last week, KO’ing them from contention. Giants are 2-4 vs spread as underdogs this year, 3-3 SU at home, with losses by 18-15-3 points- they’ve given up 283 rushing yards in last two games, bad news vs Lynch.. Seattle is 4-6 overall vs Giants, winning 36-25 in last visit here in ’11; they’ve lost six of eight visits to play Big Blue in Swamp. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 14-5-1 vs spread, 6-1 on road; NFC East underdogs are 5-10 vs spread, 1-3 at home. Three of last four Seattle games stayed under the total.

Cardinals (8-5) @ Titans (5-8)—Two teams going in opposite directions: Arizona won five of last six games (4-1-1 vs spread) with last three wins all by 13+ points, Titans lost seven of last nine games after 3-1 start- they’ve lost last four home games, with last two (vs Jags/Colts) by combined margin of five points. Arizona is just 2-4 SU on road, winning by FG in Tampa, by 13 in Jax; since they close out with games vs Seattle/49ers, they’d best win here, to stay within game of 49ers so Week 17 showdown stays important. Titans lost last four home games, by 9-14-2-3 points, but three of four teams that beat them will make playoffs; they’re 1-4-1 vs spread in last six games as an underdog. Cardinals were underdogs in first seven games this year, are 4-0-1 vs spread when favored (1-0 as road fave). Titans were +8 in turnovers in first six games; they’re -8 in last seven. Tennessee won four of last six series games after losing first three; Cardinals lost 20-17 in ’09, their only visit to Music City. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 14-5-1 vs spread, 6-1 on road; AFC South underdogs are 8-14-1 vs spread, 2-7 at home. Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Tennessee games.

Saints (10-3) @ Rams (5-8)—New Orleans averaged 18.8 ppg in splitting first six road games, with wins by 2-8-4 points, and losses at Swamp/Foxboro/Seattle- they average 31.4 ppg at home. Lousy St Louis team ambushed Saints 31-21 here two years ago; while I doubt Saints will take Rams lightly, they’re in Carolina sandwich, having beat Panthers at home Sunday night, with potential division-clinching rematch in Charlotte next Sunday. Rams play hard on defense but are deficient on offense with Clemens at QB; they’ve scored five TDs on defense/special teams in last three wins, lost last five games when they didn’t score on defense/ST. St Louis scored 27+ points in all five of its wins; they’re 3-3 at home, with losses by 24-5-7 points. Rams are 4-7 vs spread as underdogs this year, 2-2 at home; they’re +14 in turnovers in five wins, -7 in eight losses. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 7-6-1 vs spread, 2-1 at home. NFC South favorites are 9-6-1 vs spread, but 1-4 on foreign soil. Last four New Orleans games stayed under total; Rams are 5-4 SU this season when game goes over total, 0-4 when it stays under.

Bears (7-6) @ Browns (4-9)—Chicago travelling on short week after pummeling Dallas Monday night; Bears allowed 20+ points in every game this year- they’re 1-5 vs spread in game following a win, 2-4 SU on road, beating Steelers/Pack (night Rodgers got hurt). Chicago ran ball for 135-199 yards in last two games, but Browns’ run defense has been stout, allowing 112 or less yards on ground in last five games. Cleveland gagged in Foxboro last week, blowing 26-14 lead in last 2:00 of brutal 27-26 loss, their 4th loss in row while allowing 31.8 ppg; Browns are 2-4 at home, with only wins over divisional rivals Bengals/Ravens. Will Cleveland stick to run, taking advantage of Bear rush defense that allowed 204.1 ypg over their last seven games? Campbell had 398 yards, no picks in air last week; most yards they’ve run for this year is 126, vs Lions in Week 6. Home side won all three meetings since Browns were revived in ’99; Bears lost 20-10 in only visit here, in ’05. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 4-8 vs spread, 3-7 on road; AFC North favorites are 8-9, 6-5 at home. Three of last four Chicago games, five of last six Cleveland games went over the total.

Texans (2-11) @ Colts (8-5)—Indy clinched division last week despite losing, now they’re playing for seeding; Colts are 4-2 SU at home, 1-3 as home favorites, winning by 4-6-5-8 points, with losses to Miami/Rams. Indy is 3-0-1 vs spread in game following a loss this year. Houston fired coach Kubiak after second loss to Jags in three weeks, so Wade Phillips is interim coach rest of way. Texans lost last 11 games, now their play caller is gone with a first-time QB, so that’s not good; they’re 1-5 SU on road despite being favored three times- they’re 1-1-1 as road dogs, losing away games by 21-31-1-3-7 points, with win at San Diego in opener. Colts trailed 21-3 at halftime at Reliant when Kubiak had stroke; Indy rallied to win 27-24, but are just 4-4 in last eight games after 4-1 start, getting outscored 114-24 in first half of last six games. Houston had 483 yards in first meeting, outrushing Colts 143-69. Texans have only one takeaway (-5) in their last four games. Home teams are 2-5-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games, 1-3 if favored. Five of last six Houston games, six of last seven Colt games went over total.

Bills (4-9) @ Jaguars (4-9)—Not sure why Buffalo is favored in this game, but they are. Jax won four of last five games, impressive spurt after 0-8 start; they’ve scored six TDs on 27 drives last two games, after scoring total of six TDs in previous seven games. Jags ended 0-5 schneid at home last week, beating Texans for second time in three weeks despite getting outgained 406-281- all nine of their losses this year are by 10+ points. After turning ball over 19 times in first ten games, Jags have only one giveaway (+5) in last three. Jax gave up 221 rushing yards in Week 8 loss, then had its bye; since then, they’ve allowed average of only 70.8 yards/game on ground. Buffalo lost five of last six games; they’re 1-5 on road, with losses by 7-13-18-13-21 points- only win was 23-21 at Miami in Week 7. Home team is just 5-7 in this series, with Bills 3-2 in five visits here; Jags lost 34-18 at Buffalo LY, but both sides had different coaches. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 6-4 vs spread, 1-1 on road; AFC South underdogs are 9-14-1, 2-7 at home. Six of last nine Buffalo games, five of last six Jaguar games went over total.

Patriots (10-3) @ Dolphins (7-6)—New England won last three weeks by total of seven points; they’re first team since ’00 Chiefs to win three consecutive games, when they trailed by 10+ points in all three. In last four games, Pats were outscored 57-10 in first half, then outscored foes 105-55 after halftime, but now Gronkowski is done for year; his presence revitalized their passing game. Pats trailed Texans/Browns by double digits last two weeks, two poor teams; Brady’s heroics are camouflaging a very ordinary supporting cast. Miami won three of last four games; they’re 3-3 at home this year, with all six games decided by 4 or less points. Fish are 6-3 vs spread as an underdog; they’re +5 in turnovers in last six games, and haven’t lost a fumble in last five (Miami/Jax only teams to do that). Dolphins won field position in last three games by 7-16-10 yards. Patriots won last seven series games, with five of seven wins by 10+ points; they’ve won last three visits to Miami by 27-14-7 points. Underdogs covered five of six AFC East divisional games, with home dogs 3-0. Six of last eight Patriot games went over total; under is 5-1-1 in last seven Miami games.

Eagles (8-5) @ Vikings (3-9-1)—Minnesota is still competing, losing bizarre 29-26 game in Baltimore last week (five TDs scored in last 2:05) after playing deep into OT previous two games; they’ve covered five of last six games, winning last two home games (scoring 34-23 points) after losing first three. Vikings are 6-4 as an underdog this year. Philly is hot, winning last five games (4-1 vs spread) while scoring 31.6 ppg; this is only their second game on carpet all season, having won 36-21 in Swamp back in Week 5. After plodding thru six inches of snow in win over Detroit last week, they should feel very fast in a dome. Eagles are 5-1 SU on road, with only loss at 11-2 Denver; they’ve run ball for 180.3 ypg in last four games. In their last four games, Vikings have only four TDs, seven FGs on 13 red zone drives, which cost them in these close games- they would’ve lost to Bears in OT had normally reliable Gould not missed 46-yard FG. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 9-10 vs spread, 3-3 on road; NFC North underdogs are 4-8, 1-1 at home. Five of last seven Philly games stayed under the total; 11 of 13 Minnesota games went over.

Jets (6-7) @ Panthers (9-4)—Carolina had 8-game win streak snapped last week; they’re in a Saint sandwich, facing Rob Ryan’s defense last week/next, Rex Ryan’s defense this week. Panthers won/covered last five home games, winning by 38-15-24-4-21 points; they didn’t have turnover last week, which is worrisome vs Jet team that is +1 in turnovers in its six wins, -19 in its seven losses. Carolina was even in turnovers in each of its last three games. Jets are 1-4 vs spread in games following a win, losing by 3-25-13-40-23 points; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs this year- this is only their second game on grass all year- they lost 38-13 (+3.5 at Tennessee in Week 4. Home teams won four of five series games, with four of five games decided by 11+ points. Jets lost two of three visits here, losing by 11-27. Six of nine Carolina wins are by 15+ points; they held last three opponents to 62.3 rushing yards/game, doubt Geno Smith is beating this defense with his arm. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 11-13 vs spread, 3-10 on road. NFC South favorites are 10-6-1, 9-2-1 at home. Five of last seven Jet games went over the total; last five Carolina games stayed under.

Chiefs (10-3) @ Raiders (4-9)—KC righted ship with dominant special teams game in snow last week, scoring on both punt/kick return as McClusker looked like Gale Sayers in snow; Chiefs haven’t swept Raiders since ’06, as series was split four of last six years, but they’ve won eight of last ten visits here and spanked Oakland 24-7 (-9) at Arrowhead in Week 7, sacking Pryor ten times and scoring a defensive TD, while its two scoring drives were just 55/23 yards. Chiefs are 5-1 on road, 4-0 as road favorites, winning away games by 26-10-9-10-35 points; they’ve had TD on defense/special teams in all five of their road wins. Oakland lost three in row, five of last six games; ; they’re 3-3 at home, 2-3 as home dogs, losing in Coliseum by 10-29-4 points- they’ve given up special teams TD in three of last five games and allowed 144-143 rushing yards in last two games- their lack of depth due to salary cap hell has been exposed in recent weeks, as has their uncertainty at QB, where undrafted McGloin is playing over 1st-round pick Pryor. Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in AFC West divisional games this year. Last three Chief games went over total; over is 5-0-1 in last six Oakland games.

Packers (6-6-1) @ Cowboys (7-6)—Dallas is 5-1 SU at home this year, 3-2 as home favorites, winning by 5-24-15-4-7 points; Pokes are on short week after dismal 45-28 loss Monday night when Bears never punted, second time (out of 3 NFL-wide) that’s happened to Cowboys this year. Green Bay is now 1-4-1 without Rodgers after 22-21 win over 3-10 Falcons last week; they lost 27-13/40-10 in two road games he didn’t start, are 0-4 vs spread as underdogs this year. Dallas will move ball/score points; they converted 12-23 on 3rd down in last two games; not sure Packers have enough weapons to take advantage of Cowboys’ depleted defense that allowed 27 plays of 20+ yards in its last four games. In their last six red zone drives, Pack has two TDs, three FGs. Home teams won 13 of last 14 series games; Packers lost last nine visits here, with last win in ’89- teams haven’t played since ’10, Green Bay hasn’t been here since ‘07. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 4-10 vs spread, 4-7 on road; NFC North favorites are 5-11-2 vs spread, 3-7-2 at home. Seven of last ten Packer games stayed under total; last six Dallas games went over.

Bengals (9-4) @ Steelers (5-8)—Bengals won last three games to hold its division lead, but they’re only 3-4 on road, with wins by 3-3-7 points- they’re 1-3 as road favorites, as home teams are 10-2-1 vs spread in their games this season. Pitt lost tough games by 2-4 points last two weeks to slide out of contention; they lost 20-10 (+7) at Cincy in Week 2, getting outrushed 127-44, turning ball over twice (-2). Steelers won three of last four home games, covered last three tries as an underdog; they’re +8 in turnovers in their five wins, -12 in losses, with red flag 1-2 record in games where turnovers were even. Bengals scored 40+ points in last three home games but have 20-17-17 in last three on foreign soil; Dalton hasn’t been sacked in his last three games (86 PA). Pitt allowed 181 rushing yards to Miami last week, are -15/-10 in field position last two weeks. Series was swept five of last six years; Bengals’ only sweep since ’98 was four years ago, but they did split last four visits here. Home teams are 7-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games, 2-0 if home dogs. Last three Bengal road games stayed under total; three of last four Pittsburgh games went over.

Ravens (7-6) @ Lions (7-6)—Detroit continuously shoots itself in foot, turning ball over 20 times in last six games (-15); they’ve lost three of last four games, are big disappointment considering they’re only NFC North team whose QB stayed upright all year. Lions are 3-3 as home favorites, winning at home by 10-8-1-30 points, with big win vs Rodgers-less Packers. Ravens won last three games to stay in contention, surviving bizarre game last week where lead changed hands five times in last 2:05. Baltimore is 1-5 on road, with four of six games decided by exactly three points; they’re 3-2-1 as underdogs this year- this is only second time they’ve been a dog in their last seven games. Lions lost in blizzard last week despite having KR/PRs for TDs; they were outgained 478-228. Home side won all three Raven-Lion games, with Baltimore crushing Detroit 48-3 in last meeting four years ago. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 8-5-2 vs spread, 5-3-2 on road; NFC North favorites are 5-11-2 vs spread, 3-7-2 at home. Six of last eight Detroit games, three of last four Raven games went over the total. Both teams will be glad for dome setting after playing in snow last week.

[Udog]

NFL injury report: Four injuries undervalued by oddsmakers

Here are four undervalued injuries that could have a big impact on each team’s respective game this Sunday:

Ricky Jean-Francois, DE, Indianapolis Colts (Out, foot)

The Indianapolis Colts are giving up an average of 372.1 yards per game, ranking them 23rd in yards allowed. Their defense has struggled since the bye week, allowing an average of 31 points per game. Jean-Francois is a big part of the run stop unit but has been sidelined with a foot sprain since Week 13. Indianapolis is thin on the defensive line and was bullied for 155 rushing yards in a loss to Cincinnati last Sunday.

The Colts are 5.5-point home favorites against the Texans. The total is 45.5.


John Cyprien, SS, Jacksonville Jaguars (Questionable, thigh)

Cyprien has two forced fumbles and one INT, with 89 combined tackles and one sack in his rookie campaign. The Jaguars host the Bills, who are a surprising fifth in total rushing yards with 1,737 yards on the year. The Bills have over 12 rushing touchdowns and lead the league with five rushes of 40 or more yards. Cyprien has been one of the lone bright spots for the Jaguars stop unit and his ability to sniff out the run could be missed Sunday.

The Jaguars are 2-point favorites against the Bills at home, with the total at 43.5.


Aqib Talib, CB, New England Patriots (Questionable, hip)

The Patriots have been plagued by the injury bug all season. They have three cornerbacks questionable for Sunday with Talib (hip), Marquice Cole (shin) and Alfonzo Dennard (knee) nursing injuries. The Patriots are ranked 23rd overall giving up 372.3 total yards per game. Talib is the staple of that secondary with four interceptions but has lost a step since hurting his hip, which showed against Browns WR Josh Gordon – seven catches, 151 yards, one touchdown – last Sunday.

The Patriots are 1-point favorites against Miami on the road. The total is 45.5


Tavon Austin, WR, St. Louis Rams (Questionable, ankle)

Austin has 40 receptions for over 418 yards in his rookie season, averaging 10.5 yards a catch. He also has 280 yards in punt returns. Austin missed practice again Thursday and is a big question mark in the final weeks of the schedule. The Rams face the Saints high-powered attack that is complemented with the sixth-ranked defense in total yards allowed. With Austin, St. Louis could fall behind the pace if New Orleans pulls ahead.

The Rams are 6.5-point home underdogs against New Orleans. The total is 47.

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday's NFL Week 15 betting cheat sheet: Early action
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons (-7, 49.5)

Robert Griffin III will be on the sidelines Sunday afternoon when the Redskins visit the Atlanta Falcons. The quarterback has been benched for poor play - and while much of the focus has been on Griffin's shortcomings in his sophomore season, and the 38 sacks the once-mobile quarterback has taken, the defense has been a much bigger problem. Washington is tied for 22nd in total defense and last in the league in scoring, allowing 31.3 points per game.

Atlanta's precipitous fall from NFC South champion to conference bottom-feeder can be blamed on its play in the trenches - the Falcons rank 30th in the league in rushing offense and rushing defense. They've topped 100 yards on the ground only three times while allowing triple digits in 10 straight games. Ryan (3,677 yards, 21 TDs) is in line for his third straight 4,000-yard season but also his lowest quarterback rating since 2009.

LINE: Atlanta opened as a 6-point fave, but has been bet up to -7. The total is down 1.5 points to 49.5.
WEATHER: N/A.
POWER RANKINGS: Washington (+7.5) - Atlanta (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Falcons -5
TRENDS:

* Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Falcons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf.
* Over is 6-2 in Atlanta's last eight home games.


Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (EVEN, 43)

The Chicago Bears will have their starting quarterback in the lineup when they visit the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. Jay Cutler was cleared to practice at full speed on Wednesday and coach Marc Trestman on Thursday announced that he will start against Cleveland. He'll take over for Josh McCown, who threw for 348 yards Monday in a performance that earned him NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors.

Cleveland was on the verge of snapping its losing streak last Sunday before allowing two touchdowns in the final 61 seconds en route to a 27-26 loss at New England. The setback, their seventh in eight games, assured the Browns of their sixth consecutive losing season. Quarterback Brandon Weeden (concussion) practiced on Wednesday but remains questionable to serve as Jason Campbell's backup on Sunday.

LINE: The line has held steady at even-money, with the total down to 43 from the opening 45.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with a 45 percent chance of snow and wind blowing out of the west at 14 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-1.5) + Cleveland (+6.0) - home field (-3.0) = Bears -4.5
TRENDS:

* Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing fewer than 150 passing yards in their previous game.
* Browns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. teams with winning road records.
* Over is 11-2 in Chicago's last 13 Sunday games following a Monday nighter.


Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-5, 45.5)

Houston quarterback Quarterback Case Keenum was one of those who appeared to be bothered by the pressure in a lackluster performance against the Jaguars that saw him benched in the third quarter, but the second-year pro was given the nod by interim head coach Wade Phillips to end the season under center. Keenum threw for a career-high 350 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions in the prior meeting.

The Colts gave up 155 rushing yards against the Bengals last week and rank 29th overall in run defense, a troubling scenario for a team that hopes to have success in the postseason. Coupled with an inability at times to get off the field on third down - opponents are successful 40.5 percent of the time - Indianapolis has struggled to control the clock, also ranking 29th in time of possession.

LINE: Indianapolis has dropped a point to -5, while the total is also down a half-point to 45.5.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Houston (+6.5) + Indianapolis (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -10.5
TRENDS:

* Texans are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games.
* Colts are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.


New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+1, 45.5)

The New England Patriots will begin life without Rob Gronkowski for the second time this season as they attempt to clinch their fifth consecutive AFC East title and 10th in 11 years. New England's offense sputtered a bit as it adjusted to his initial absence, which lasted the first six weeks of the campaign following offseason surgeries on his forearm and back. Tom Brady will likely need to continue to lean on wideout Julian Edelman (team-leading 76 receptions).

Despite being sacked a league-high 47 times, Ryan Tannehill has steadily improved and matched a career best with three touchdown passes last week versus the Steelers. Versatile tight end Charles Clay reeled in two to extend his team lead to seven in that department and has seven catches in each of the last two contests. Clay has 678 yards receiving for the second-best total by a Miami tight end since Randy McMichael (791, 2004).

LINE: Miami is a 1-point dog after opening at +2.5. The total is set at 45.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with cloudy skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 6 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: New England (-5.0) + Miami (+0.5) - home field (-3.0) = Patriots -2.5
TRENDS:

* Patriots are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. AFC opponents.
* Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Under is 7-1 in Miami's last eight games vs. AFC East foes.


Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (+5.5, 51)

The Eagles did not score a single point during the fourth quarter in any of the first four games of their five-game winning streak, but they erupted for 28 fourth-quarter points against the Lions last Sunday. Nick Foles (NFL-leading 120.0 quarterback rating) threw for a touchdown and rushed for another last week, but his near-record run ended at 19 touchdowns before throwing his first interception of the season.

Minnesota and Baltimore exchanged leads six times in the fourth quarter, including five lead changes in the final 2:05, before the Vikings fell on Joe Flacco's touchdown pass to Marlon Brown with four seconds left. Minnesota has allowed the third-most passing yards in the NFL, although defensive end Brian Robison has done a nice job pressuring the quarterback of late, recording six sacks in his last six games.

LINE: Minnesota has dropped to a 5.5-point dog after opening at +4. The total is down a half-point to 51.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Philadelphia (-4.0) + Minnesota (+5.0) - home field (-3.0) = Eagles -6
TRENDS:

* Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Week 15 games.
* Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.


Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (+7, 41.5)

Seattle was hoping receiver Percy Harvin (hip) might play for the second time this season but it is looking unlikely. “He just hasn’t quite gotten over the hump,” coach Pete Carroll said on Wednesday. Quarterback Russell Wilson (23 touchdowns, seven interceptions) is excelling and standout running back Marshawn Lynch ranks fifth in the NFL with 1,042 yards. Star cornerback Richard Sherman (four interceptions) hasn’t picked off a pass since Oct. 28.

Quarterback Eli Manning (3,254 yards, 16 touchdowns) shares the NFL interception lead of 20 with rookie Geno Smith of the Jets and has gone eight consecutive games without reaching 300 yards. He’s also painfully aware that his struggles are a big part of the reason why New York will miss out on the postseason for the second straight campaign.

LINE: The Giants are holding as a 7-point dog, with the total set at 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 14 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-8.0) + New York (+2.0) - home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -7
TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the NFC.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.


San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5, 41)

Defense has keyed the turnaround for San Francisco, which allowed an average of 28 points in its first three games but has yielded 13 per game while going 8-2 over its last 10. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick continues to put up modest numbers, but he has been picked off only once in his last three games and has his top wideout back in Michael Crabtree, who has six catches in his first two contests since returning from an Achilles injury.

Tampa Bay forced five turnovers against the Bills to overcome an ugly performance by rookie quarterback Mike Glennon, who threw for a season-low 90 yards and two interceptions. With their top two running backs out for the season, Bobby Rainey rushed for 127 yards and a touchdown last week - although most of it came on an 80-yard scoring run - and Vincent Jackson hauled in his sixth TD reception of the season.

LINE: Tampa Bay has remained a 5-point dog. The total is down a half-point to 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with a 45 percent chance of showers.
POWER RANKINGS: San Francisco (-6.5) - Tampa Bay (+4.0) - home field (-3.0) = 49ers -7.5
TRENDS:

* 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. teams with losing records.
* Buccaneers are 13-28-1 ATS in their last 42 home games.
* The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.


Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5, 42.5)

Buffalo boasts one of the top rushing games in the league with Fred Jackson (645 yards, seven TDs) and C.J. Spiller (678 yards, two TDs) sharing the load. Quarterback play has been an issue thanks to injuries and the inconsistent performance of rookie EJ Manuel, who hit bottom with four interceptions last week. The defense has given up a lot of yardage, but the front four is strong and has led Buffalo to an NFL-best 44 sacks.

Jacksonville has outgained only one opponent all season and the offense ranks last in total yards and scoring, but a resurgent ground game has led an improved effort during the winning streak. That progress could be in jeopardy with star running back Maurice Jones-Drew (hamstring) looking like a game-time decision and unproven Jordan Todman in line to start in his place.

LINE: Jacksonville opened as a two-point dog and is now +2.5, with the total down from 43.5 to 42.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with a 69 percent chance of rain.
POWER RANKINGS: Buffalo (+5.0) - Jacksonville (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Jaguars -2.5
TRENDS:

* Bills are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.
* Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. the AFC.
* Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------