NFL Week 15

[roccodean]

1-5*

2* Oakland +4.5 over KC (sportbook.com)
May be 3* upgrade after I run my trends
As of now consensus line is +4. I think it goes to +3 at sharp shops so would get it in if you like it.
Full analysis/write up to follow

[roccodean]

All these plays may be upgraded to 3* before game..stil have a few more pieces to run:

2* Oak over KC

Like it at +3.5 or better

As of now consensus line is 4.5...really like it at that number

It is 5.5 at square books now..if gets to +6 LOVE IT!

I think this line comes down at sharp shops before kickoff

KC's stats do not justify their record and I think this line is inflated. As of now (Friday) 85% of the tickets are on the Chiefs and I think this is leading to an inflated number. The Chiefs Achilles heel is their run D where they allow 4.5 YPR (27th in the NFL) and Oakland averages 4.8 YPR (4th in NFL). Oakland's weakest srat is their pass D that is 21st in YPPA, but Smith doesn't throw downfield (last in leage with 6.5 YPPA). KC's strength is their run game (5th in YPR with 4.7 YPR), but Oakland's D is 7th in the NFL in YPR allowed. KC has benefited from a +15 TO ratio this year. Some of this can be contributed the Smith not throwing interceptions, but they are also +7 in fumbles (1st in league) which is strictly luck. In general this should regress ( and remember the team that wins the TO battle covers 77% of the time). My calculated line is KC -3 so the value is on the Raiders. McGloin has been solid and has a QBR (ESPN's stat) of 62 which is 12th in the league. I have a 74-33 ATS trend favoring the Raiders that plays against KC because they are playing back to back games as a road fav and now playing a division opponent.I think Oakland is the perfect team to exploit the chiefs weaknesses. I think they can win straight up and would put a piece on the money line.

2* Giants over Seattle

Like at +7 or better. I think we see this go above 7 at square books so would wait to bet. Think i closes <7 at sharp books.

The Giants have not looked good this year and the public loves the Seahawks, which is why I think there is value on the G-Men here. When you look at raw statistics, the Giants defense is strong. They allow only 3.8 YPR (6th in NFL) and 6.6 in YPPA (also 6th). But, they are allowing 26.7 PPG (21st). Well, this is because the are 27th in allowing 3rd downs (42%) and 18th in TD's allowed in redzone (57%). I feel like their raw statistics are more telling and that they will improve on 3rd down allowance and redzone defense, and hence allow less points. Also, they are -13 in turnovers (including -4 in fumbles). Eli has been throwing more interceptions this year than in years past. His INT rate this year is 4.4% and prior to this he was 2.8%, so I think we will see some regression. The Giants run offense has been anemic this year, but if Seattle has one vulnerable spot it is their run D that allows 4.2 YPR (18th). My calculated line is Seattle -5, so the value is on the Giants. I have a few good trends on the Giants including one that is 170-95 ATS that plays on dogs off 21+ point losee plus 2 other variables. If the line goes to 7.5+ the Giants also qualify for the following trend: play against road favorites of 7.5+ (SEA) facing a home team that is <.500 (Giants) and don't have the revenge factor. This trend is 81-38-2 ATS including 51-21-1 ATS from game 9 on.

2* Cleveland over Bears

Like at Pick or beter

As of now there are a few picks and a few +1's...I think Cleve closes short fav in sharp shops

After the Bears big Monday night win, I think they are over valued in this contest. The public likes to bet offense, hence they will be on the Bears here. The Browns are not an ugly team and the public hates betting these non-flashy teams (which often leads to value), but the Browns D is one of the tops in the league. They allow only 3.5 YPR (2nd) and 6.1 PPA (2nd). Chicago's offense is good (7th in YPR and YPPA), butI think that Cutler coming back is not an upgrade and may actually be a downgrade. Chicago's offense is dependant on timing and it will take some time for Cutler to get into the swing of things. Also it will be cold in Cleveland which leads to a hard ground and cutler will have difficulty planting with his hurt Ankle. The Bears defense is one of the worst in the league, they are dead last in YPR allowing an amazing 5.2 YPR and the allow 7.7 PPA (23rd). The Browns offense isn't good, but the perfect fix for that is the Bears D. Campbell hasn't been bad this year...his QB rating is 88 which puts him near C. Newton /Dalton/Stafford/Bady. All he has to do is be a game manager in this game. I have a good trend favoring the Browns based on loosing closely as a big dog last week. The Brownies get the win here.

[Kaptain]

thanks for the early post ROCCO....gl

[roccodean]

1* Buff -2.5
My calculated line on this game is Buffalo -4 and I think the reason we are getting the Bills at a discount is simply recent events. Buffalo got killed last week in TB, but let's take a closer look. The Bills oly got outgained by 30 yards, but were -3 in TO's. On the other side, a few weeks back people were talking about how the Jags were one of the worst teams in NFL history, but now after winning 4 of their last 5 people forget this. How funny it would be if the Jags won 4 out of their first 5...people would be talking about how good they are. My point is I think the market over reacts to recent events. Let's look at the Jags 3 game win streak. Their first win came vs the Titans where they were outplayed (-1.4 YPP) but they were +2 in TO's. They beat Houston 3 weeks ago legitamitely, but we all know how good Hou is (Jags were +1 in TO but also were +1.5 in YPP). Against the Browns, they benefited from a +2 TO margin but lost the game statistically (-1.6 YPP). Last week they beat the lowly Texans again, but they were outgained but yet again benefited from a +2 TO margin. The Bills are -6 in fumbles this year...this usually regresses. The Jags offense is horrible, they are 31st in YPR and 30th in YPPA. They won't be able to pass vs. a Bills D that is 7th in YPPA and with MJD doutbful I don't see them getting much on the ground. The Jags D is bad too; 20th vs the run and 22nd vs the pass. I think the Bills get the W here.

[LeRoy]

gl Rocco lets crush the man this week

[LeRoy]

see the Giants are up to +9 Seattle must be a steam play. Even they loose sometimes

[Sirporkie]

GL Rocco. Oakland up to 6.5 now

[LeRoy]

see the Giants are up to +9 Seattle must be a steam play. Even they loose sometimes

Miami -3 another steam play?

[Sirporkie]

Miami -3 another steam play?

I think so. I bet Seattle -7 and Miami ML last night. Crazy movement