NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (Thursday, December 5 - Monday, December 9)

[Udog]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 14

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 14:

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (+3, 44.5)

Andy Reid’s NFC East knowledge vs. Ruined Redskins

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid knows more about the NFC East than most outside the division, having waddled the sidelines in Philadelphia for 13 seasons. That inside info has shown in the Chiefs record versus NFC East teams this season, with Kansas City going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS against Dallas, New York and Philadelphia.

Washington has fallen far from the class of the NFC East in just one season, lugging a 3-9 record into Week 14. Quarterback Robert Griffin III is no longer a dual-threat dynamo, having been put on a short leash as a pocket passer to protect his wonky knees. The Redskins have done a terrible job protecting him and have allowed RG3 to be sacked 15 times in the past three games - all loses SU and ATS. The Chiefs pass rush isn’t as potent as earlier in the season but still has teeth, especially with Reid exploiting Washington’s weakness.


Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (-2.5, 40)

Raiders’ fast starts vs. Jets’ failure to launch

The Raiders don’t waste any time finding the end zone. Oakland ranks second in the NFL in first-quarter scoring – 7.2 points per opening frame – and sits eighth in the league in first-half points, averaging 13.1 points through the first two quarters. The Raiders have outscored opponents 86-41 in the first 15 minutes before suffering a power outage following halftime.

If Oakland gets out to another strong start versus the Jets, a poor second half may not matter. New York has dropped three in a row, scoring a combined 18 points in those games. A QB shuffle hasn’t helped the offense at all, and Gang Green could finally be giving up on head coach Rex Ryan. New York averages just 2.6 points per first quarter – worst in the NFL – and has mustered only three total first-half points during this losing skid.


St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-6, 41.5)

Rams’ pass rush vs. Cardinals’ QB Carson Palmer

The high point in a low season for the Rams has been the play of their front four. St. Louis has been able to bring a dominant pass rush with just its defensive linemen, especially DE Robert Quinn who is second in the NFL with 13 sacks. Quinn has three sacks on Arizona QB Carson Palmer in Week 1, helping the Rams edge the Cardinals 27-24 as 3-point home underdogs. On the season, St. Louis has 37 sacks – tied for fifth in the league.

Palmer doesn’t respond well to pressure. The aging passer runs like he’s stuck in mud and has a bad habit of relieving that pressure by throwing away interceptions. Palmer was sacked five times and threw two INTs in the loss to Philadelphia last weekend and has been crushed 11 times in the past three games. To make matters worse, RB Andre Ellington is out of action, taking away one of Palmer’s favorite check downs when things get hot.


Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3, 45.5)

Panthers’ time of possession vs. Saints’ Superdome offense

The Seahawks may have laid the blueprint for locking down the Saints during last Monday’s squash, but Carolina coach Ron Rivera may not even look to his defense to slow down Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense Sunday night. The Panthers offense can do that. Carolina tops the league in time of possession, chewing up more than 33 minutes per game, and has limited opponents to an average of 58.7 plays per game – fewest in the NFL.

New Orleans defense is improved but the backbone of the Big Easy is Brees and that potent pass game. The Saints sit second in time of possession this season - 32:30 – but held on to the football for only 26:22 in the loss to Seattle. Opponents have been trying to kill the clock in recent meetings with New Orleans, limiting it to an average of only 29:05 TOP and just over two touchdowns in the Saints last three games. New Orleans is 0-3 ATS in the span.

[Udog]

NFL Betting Week 14 Preview: Hot bets and moving odds

All odds current as of noon ET, Dec. 5.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a perfect example of how quickly things can change in the NFL. After they were hammered in Week 8 by the San Francisco 49ers you could still find odds on whether they were going to 0-16 as they went into their bye.

Now, they’re riding a three-game winning streak and have jumped out of the AFC South basement and past the Houston Texans, who they’ll host in tonight’s Thursday Night Football game. It’s turning into a tricky game to handicap. The Jaguars may be on a bit of a roll, but they haven’t won a home game all season. Meanwhile, Houston just keeps finding new ways to lose every week, but they hung around with the Patriots and scored 30 points for the first time since the second game of the season.

The Jags opened as 2.5-point underdogs but have since moved to 3.5-point pups as about 64 percent of Sports Interaction’s action comes in on the Texans. This might be a game in which we’ll see a wave of home-team support as the kick nears, so keep a close eye on this line.

Other odds on the move

With cold weather settling in, totals in Denver Broncos games are dropping with the temperature. This week the Tennessee at Denver over/under opened at 50.5 but now sits at 48.5. Denver has over bettors cashing at a 7-4-1 clip so far this season.

The Cincinnati Bengals have won two straight and are unbeaten at home as they get set to host the Indianapolis Colts this week. The Bengals opened as 5.5-poing favorites and are now listed at -6 while the total has dipped from 44.5 to 43.5.

Confidence in New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith is approaching the Mark Sanchez level, so it’s no shocker to see the Jets move from 2.5-point favorites at the open to -1.5 now. The Jets have dropped three in a row straight up and against the spread.

This week’s most popular bet

The Kansas City Chiefs have dropped four of their last five against the number, but face a Washington club that has lost four straight, failing to cover in each. Bettors are going with the lesser of two evils in a big way. Right now, 94 percent of Sports Interaction’s wagers are coming in on Kansas City.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 15

Raiders (4-8) @ Jets (5-7)—Jets are first team since ’08 Browns to score 3 or less points in consecutive games, with 15 3/outs on 24 drives in last two games; they’re 0-3 since their bye, losing by 23-16-20 points, yet they stick with overmatched rookie QB Smith, who was yanked for Simms (non-starter for bad college team) in second half last week. In their seven losses, Jets are -19 (2-21) in turnovers; they’re +1 (6-5) in five wins. Oakland is on road for 4th time in last five weeks; they’ve lost four of last five games, with only win at 2-10 Houston. Raiders have only six takeaways in last five games, but are 4-2 as road underdogs, covering last three away games- they averaged over 8 yards/pass attempt in last two games, a good sign. Home side won seven of last nine series games; Raiders lost last three games with Jets here, but haven’t been here since ’06- their last win over Jets here was in ’96. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 5-3 vs spread, 4-2 at home; AFC West underdogs are 9-4 vs spread, 6-1 on road. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Oakland games, 7-3 in last ten Jet games.

Chiefs (9-3) @ Redskins (3-9)—Chiefs lost last three games after 9-0 start, but two of those were vs Broncos; they were outscored 52-31 in second half of last two games, as injury problems on DL mount, but what better team to face now than sliding Redskins, who lost last four games and are coming off of pair of primetime losses. KC is 4-1 on road, allowing 17 or less points in the four wins- they’re 5-4 as favorites this year, 3-0 on road. Washington was up 14-0 early vs Giants Sunday and still lost, as reports of unrest between QB/coach spread; Redskins have two TDs, three FGs on last seven red zone drives and only three takeaways (-1) in last four games. Skins are 2-4 at home, with wins 45-41/30-24 OT; their last eight losses are all by 7+ points. Chiefs won last five games in seldom-played series; last time they lost to Washington was thirty years ago- they’re 3-1 in last four visits here. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 10-9 vs spread, 5-4 on road; NFC East underdogs are 5-7, 1-2 at home. Last three Redskin games and four of five KC road games stayed under the total.

Vikings (3-8-1) @ Ravens (6-6)—Minnesota played deep into OT last two weeks, going 1-0-1 after 2-8 start; they’ve covered four of last five games, beating Bears last week with Cassel playing most of game- its amazing they paid Josh Freeman $2M to play one dismal Monday night game, and he hasn’t appeared since. Minnesota ran ball for 232/246 yards last two weeks, as Peterson appears healed from his injury- they’ve still allowed 26+ points in 10 of 12 games. Only once in last five Raven games has their opponent rushed for more than 104 yards, and that was an overtime game. Eight of last nine Baltimore games were decided by 6 or less points, or in OT; Ravens won three of last four, are 5-1 vs spread at home, 3-1 when favored. Home team won last three series games; Vikings lost last two games here 19-3/30-23, as home side won last three series games. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 3-7 vs spread, 2-6 on road; AFC North home favorites are 5-3. 10 of 12 Minnesota games went over the total; five of six Baltimore home games stayed under.

Browns (4-8) @ Patriots (9-3)—Belichick was once fired by Browns, but it was old Brown franchise who are now the Ravens; Patriots are 5-2 vs new Browns, with home side winning five of last six meetings. Cleveland lost its three visits here, by 11-6-17 points. Browns’ WR Josh Gordon has run amuck last two games, catching xx passes for 4xx yards, and that is with suspect Weeden at QB; Cleveland is 0-5 in his starts this year, with three losses by 14+ points. Browns lost last three games, were favored in last two; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 8-18-6-21 points, with win at Minnesota when Hoyer was QB. Patriots won last two games 34-31, rallying from down 10 at half last week in Houston; they’ve covered last five home games, are 4-1 as home favorites, winning in Foxboro by 3-20-3-10-24-3 points. In last three games, Patriot opponents are 22 of last 40 (55%) on third down. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 8-5-2, 4-2 at home. Over is 5-2 in last seven games for both teams.

Colts (8-4) @ Bengals (8-4)—Both sides appear headed to division title, but Cincy still has games left with Steelers/Ravens, so they’ve got more urgency than Indy squad that has basically sewed up division title. Bengals have revenge game with Steelers next week; they’re 4-0 as home favorites this year, winning home games by 10-4-7-40-21 points. Colts won seven of last eight games in what would be regional rivalry if teams played in same division; they’re 8-3 at Cincy, winning last three visits since ’96. Indy had four takeaways (+3) last week after having total of two in last four games- they’re 4-2 SU on road this year, 3-1 vs spread as road dogs. Bengals outscored last five opponents in second half by combined total of 75-28. In last four games, Indy allowed TD drives of 82-64-80 on first drive of second half. Colts scored 11 or less points in three of their four losses. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-3 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 6-5-1. Five of last six Indy games went over total; three of last four Bengal games stayed under.

Panthers (9-3) @ Saints (9-3)—Evidence is clear; Saints are way better at home, scoring 33 ppg while going 5-0-1 as home favorite, with wins by 6-24-21-18-32-3 points- they’re coming off dismal effort in Seattle Monday night- NO scores only 18.8 ppg on road. Carolina won/covered its last eight games, with Patriots (24-20) only team in streak to score more than 16 points; Panthers are 3-1 as an underdog this year, with only non-cover 12-7 (+3.5) at home vs Seattle in season opener. Last three games, Carolina drove ball on first drive of second half for TDs of 81-83-78 yards, so sound halftime adjustments are being made. Panthers swept Saints LY when Payton wasn’t coaching- they lost last four games to Payton, are 1-3 in last four visits to Superdome, losing by 10-2-28 points. Carolina defense allowed only seven offensive TDs on its last 82 drives. NFC South home teams are 7-1 vs spread in divisional games this year, 5-0 when favored. Last four Carolina games stayed under the total; four of last six Saint games also stayed under. Teams meet again in two weeks in Charlotte.

Lions (7-5) @ Eagles (7-5)—Philly won last four games, scoring 31 ppg, as Foles establishes himself as an elite QB; Eagles have only one turnover (+8) in last four games, winning last two at Linc after breaking 0-12 spread skid at home (they’re still 1-13 ATS in last 14 at home). Detroit has 17 turnovers (-13) in its last five games, as they continuously shoot themselves in foot; Lions are 3-3 SU on road, but were favored in four of six games. Iggles won six of last seven series games, with average total in last four, 59.0. Lions lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 21-7-1-35 points. NFC North non-divisional road teams are 4-10 vs spread; NFC East home teams are 6-9. Five of last seven Detroit games went over the total; five of last six Philly games stayed under. You’d think Lions have edge with 10-day break after Thanksgiving game, but they’ve lost post-Turkey game last five years, so not so much. There was speculation from couple Michigan guys on radio Monday night that Schwartz is gone if Lions miss playoffs, with Nick Saban a possible successor.

Dolphins (6-6) @ Steelers (5-7)—Miami is 5-1 when it allows 20 or less points, 1-5 when it allows more; they’re 3-3 on road, 3-2 as road dogs. Dolphins lost last five games in this series, with last three by six or less points; they’ve lost last three visits here, by 3-11-3 points. 20 years ago, Joe Philbin was OL coach at a D-III school an hour north of Pittsburgh that won national title; his WR coach O’Keefe was head coach of that team, so Fish figure to have some support here, but with Steelers winning three of last four games (4-0 vs spread) to get back into contention, not much support. Pitt started season 0-4, has rallied behind great QB Roethlisberger, who was sacked once in last three games, after being dumped 36 times in first nine games. Steelers haven’t turned ball over in last three games, are +7 in turnovers in last four. Miami has been terrible in red zone in last two games, scoring 12 points on five drives inside opponents’ 20. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 2-9 against the spread; AFC North home favorites are 5-3. Under is 5-0-1 in Dolphins’ last six games.

Bills (4-8) @ Bucs (3-9)—Over last seven games, on first drive of second half by both teams, Buffalo has been outscored 41-0, including offense giving up TD, so staff that was mostly in college LY is getting outwitted at halftime. Bills lost four of last five games, losing OT game in Toronto to Falcons last week when they led by 10 early on. Buffalo is 1-4 SU/ATS on road, with losses by 7-13-18-13 points. Tampa Bay had 3-game win streak stopped cold in Charloitte last week; Bucs are 2-4 SU this year in game with spread of 3 or less- they’re 1-2 as a favorite and beat Miami/Atlanta in last two home games. Bills allowed 140.3 rushing yards per game over their last three games. Tampa won six of nine series games, with eight of the nine played here; Bills haven’t visited here since a 19-3 loss in ’05. Weird slate of games this weekend, with only four divisional games, and four interconference games. AFC East road underdogs are 2-9 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 7-2-1. Over is 6-2 in last eight Buffalo games, 5-2-1 in last eight Tampa games.

Titans (5-7) @ Broncos (10-2)—Denver gets coach Fox back on sidelines after KC/NE/KC stretch that finds Broncos in first place, with last four games vs teams all with sub-.500 records. Denver is 5-1 as home favorites, with only non-cover when they laid 26 to Jags; they’ve won home games by 22-16-32-16-24-10 points. Titans lost six of last eight games, falling 22-14 in Indy last week despite giving up only one TD, but also five FGs; they’re 5-1 vs spread on road, 3-1 as road dog, losing away games by 6-7-8 points, with wins by Pitt/Rams/Oakland. In last five games, Titans converted 39 of 74 on 3rd down- they’ve run ball for 134.7 ypg in last three games. Denver won five of last seven series games; Titans lost last four visits here-- when he was with Colts, Manning won 13 of his last 16 games vs division rival Titans. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5-1 vs spread; AFC West favorites are 10-9, 5-5 at home. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Tennessee games, 10-2 in Bronco games. Is lack of practice hurting #18? Denver scored first drive TD in five of first nine games, but none in last three.

Rams (5-7) @ Cardinals (7-5)—Arizona (+4.5) lost 27-24 in season opener at St Louis, but lot has changed for them since; Redbirds won four of last five games (4-0-1 vs spread) are 2-0-1 as home favorites this year, winning at home by 4-16-14-3-29 points- their only loss in six home games was to Seattle. Opponents are 12 for last 43 on 3rd down against Arizona. Rams are 2-3 in Clemens’ starts, 1-1 on road; they scored two defensive TDs and a special teams TD in the two wins- St Louis is 2-4 as a road underdog this year, losing road games by 7-24-15-10 points, with upset wins at Texans/Colts. St Louis won last three series games, after losing 10 of previous 11; they’ve won two of last three visits to desert. In their last three games, on first drive of each half, Cardinals have four TDs and FG on six drives; Fitzgerald has looked sharper in last two games. This is only 5th time in 13 games Arizona has been favored this season. NFC West home favorites are 3-0 vs spread in divisional games this season. Over is 7-2 in last nine Ram games, 5-2 in last seven Arizona tilts.

Giants (5-7) @ Chargers (5-7)—San Diego drafted Eli Manning, but his dad forced a trade, so Chargers wound up with Rivers, Steelers with Big Ben- fans tend to remember that stuff. Giants won five of last six games after an 0-6 start; they’re 2-2 as road underdogs, 2-4 SU on road, with wins vs division rivals Eagles/Redskins. In their last seven games, Giants allowed 33 (4.7) second half points; they allowed 113 (22.6) in first five. Chargers are 1-4 since their bye, with only win 41-38 at Chiefs; Bolts are 2-3 at home- they’re 2-4 in games where spread is 3 or less points, Giants are 3-3. Big Blue is just 11 for last 38 on 3rd down in last three games; slowish TE Meyers seems to be pass catcher Manning trusts most in big spot. San Diego has only 12 takeaways (-4) in 12 games; Giants are 4-1 when they have less than two turnovers. Chargers are 2-0 vs Eli, winning 45-23/21-20; Giants’ last win here was in ’98. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 5-5 vs spread; NFC East underdogs are 5-7, 4-5 on road. Four of last six Giant games, five of last seven San Diego games stayed under the total.

Seahawks (11-1) @ 49ers (8-4)—With Seattle winning Monday, they’ve virtually clinched home field thru NFC playoffs, making this much more important game for 49ers, who have one-game lead for last Wild Card spot. Home side won eight of last nine series games, with series split four of last five years; Seahawks lost last four visits here, by average of 14 points, but they beat 49ers 29-3 (-3) at home in Week 2, outrushing SF 172-100 in game where neither QB completed half his passes, and neither team gained more than 240 yards. Niners are 8-0 when they average 6+ yards per pass attempt, 0-4 when they do not; they averaged 3.5 in loss at Seattle and turned it over five times. In their first three games, SF turned ball over seven times (-4); in nine games since, only 10 times (+10). Seattle won its last six games; their only loss was 34-28 in Week 5 at Indy, in game they led 12-0 early. 49ers scored 9 or less points in three of their four losses. NFC West divisional home favorites are 3-0 vs spread; NFL-wide, they’re 25-16-2. Last four 49er games stayed under the total.

Falcons (3-9) @ Packers (5-6-1)—Green Bay is 0-4-1 since Rodgers got hurt, rallying from down 23-7 to tie 3-8-1 Vikings, but Falcons snapped 5-game skid last week in Toronto, and a bad dome team playing on frozen tundra in December isn’t appealing. Atlanta is 0-3 outdoors this season, losing by 4-24-13 points; they’re 1-5 overall as a road dog this year, covering for first time last week. Over last six games, Falcons allowed average of 159.8 rushing yards/game, would expect Lacy to have big day if Flynn starts again and it looks like he will. Pack is obviously not same without Rodgers, scoring 13 or less points in three of last four games. Home team lost five of last six series games; Falcons won three of last four visits here, were first road team to win playoff game at Lambeau. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-8 vs spread, 5-5 on road. NFC North favorites are 4-10-2, 2-6-2 at home. Over is 8-3 in last 11 Atlanta games, 2-3 in Rodgers-less Packer games. Pack-Jets-Texans-Bucs are all favored this week, and they’re all horrible right now; ain’t handicapping fun?

Cowboys (7-5) @ Bears (6-6)—Dallas won last two games and five of last seven; with Week 11 bye and 10 days since last game, this is only their third game in last 28 days, so they should be rested, but this is another road team playing December game in possible bitter cold. Then again, Romo is from Wisconsin. You’d expect Dallas to be good with 10 days off after Thanksgiving game, but they’re 2-3 in last five post-Turkey games, 1-3 when on road. Cowboys are 2-3 this season in games with spread of 3 or less points, with two 1-point losses. Bears lost three of last four games, are 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine; they blew OT game in Minnesota last week, missing 46-yard FG in OT. Chicago is 4-2 at home, with underdogs 3-1-2 in those games- they’re 0-3-2 as home favorites this year, 3-6 in games with spread of 3 or less. Chicago won last two meetings 27-10/34-18, both in Dallas; this is Cowboys’ first visit to Windy City since ’07. NFC East non-divisional road teams are 7-8 vs spread; NFC North home teams are 3-7-2. Last five Dallas games and four of six Chicago home games went over the total.

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday's NFL Week 14 betting cheat sheet: Early action
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 41.5)

The Ravens are looking for their first three-game winning streak of the campaign and will also hope to semi-corral Vikings star Adrian Peterson, who rushed for a season-best 211 yards in last week’s overtime win over the Chicago Bears.

Matt Cassel is expected to be the starting quarterback for the Vikings after throwing for 243 yards in relief of Christian Ponder, who left the game against the Bears after suffering a concussion. While Minnesota has struggled on the road, the Ravens have been strong at home with a 5-1 mark while allowing just 12.3 points per game. Baltimore is tied with the Miami Dolphins for the final AFC spot but holds the tiebreaker by virtue of its win over the Dolphins on Oct. 6.

LINE: The Ravens opened -7.5 and are now -7. The total is down to 41.5 from the opening 43.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with freezing rain and/or snow in the forecast.
POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+5.0) + Baltimore (0.0) + home field (-3.0) = Ravens -8.0

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Under is 7-1 in Ravens last 8 home games.


Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (+3, 43.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs' dream season has come crashing back to reality with three straight losses, but they can move a step closer to clinching a playoff spot with a victory at Washington on Sunday. Kansas City has found itself unable to keep pace in shootouts the past three weeks, losing to Denver twice with a heartbreaking defeat to San Diego sandwiched between.

Three of Washington's four consecutive losses have come by eight points or fewer, and the league's best ground game has been impressive of late. Quarterback Robert Griffin III turned in one of his best efforts of the season last week, completing 24-of-32 passes for 207 yards and a touchdown and rushing for a season-high 88 yards on 12 carries.

LINE: The Chiefs opened as 3-point road faves. The total is down one point from the opening 44.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with freezing rain and/or snow in the forecast.
POWER RANKINGS: Kansas City (-1.5) + Washington (+6.5) - home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -2.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 7-1-1 in Chiefs last nine road games.


Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 42)

Quarterback EJ Manuel missed more than a month for the Bills, but he has come back to throw for four touchdown passes and one interception in his last three starts. Buffalo saw its slim playoff chances evaporate in the 34-31 overtime loss to Atlanta last week, a setback that led team president Russ Brandon to express concern over whether playing in Toronto wrecks a home-field edge for the Bills.

Tampa Bay's Mike Glennon, a third-round draft pick, had guided the Buccaneers to consecutive straight victories before running into Carolina's stone-wall defense last week. Glennon was the league's Offensive Rookie of the Month in November, but failed to throw a TD pass for the first time in the 27-6 loss to the Panthers.

LINE: The Bucs opened -2.5. The total is down a half-point from the opening 42.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with wind blowing toward the N end zone at 6 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Buffalo (+4.5) - Tampa Bay (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Buccaneers -3.0

TRENDS:

* Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Bills last five road games.


Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 40.5)

After finding the end zone just once in his first 10 games, Mike Wallace scored in his second straight contest as Miami posted a 23-3 triumph over the New York Jets last week. The Dolphins are tied for sixth place in the AFC with Baltimore, which handed the Steelers just their third loss in eight games with a 22-20 decision on Thanksgiving.

Ben Roethlisberger has thrown eight touchdown passes in his last three games - and his next one will snap a tie with Hall-of-Famer Terry Bradshaw (212) for the most in franchise history. Wallace's departure opened doors for Antonio Brown, who has reeled in an NFL-best 85 receptions and 1,103 yards - as well as six touchdowns.

LINE: The Steelers opened -3 and are now -3.5. The total opened at 41.5 and is down one point.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with a 66 percent chance of snow.
POWER RANKINGS: Miami (+2.0) + Pittsburgh (0.0) + home field (-3.0) = Steelers -5.0

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 9-2 in Steelers last 11 vs. AFC.


Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 52)

Detroit, which leads Chicago by one game in the NFC North, continues to ride its talented three-headed offensive attack. Matthew Stafford has 627 passing yards and six touchdowns in the last two games, Reggie Bush racked up 182 total yards and a touchdown against the Packers and Calvin Johnson has 962 receiving yards in his last six games - the best six-game run by any receiver in NFL history.

Philadelphia, playing its third straight home game, enters this weekend tied with Dallas atop the NFC East. While the Eagles have won four straight games, they have not scored a single point in the fourth quarter in any of those contests and their margin of victory has gotten increasingly less (29, 14, eight, three).

LINE: Philly opened -2.5. The total is down 2.5-point from the opening 54.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with a 66 percent chance of snow.
POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-4.0) - Philadelphia (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles -1.5

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in Eagles last five vs. NFC.
* Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win.
* Eagles are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.


Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 43)

Indianapolis is enjoying a three-game lead in the AFC South but is showing some cracks with losses in two of the last four contests. Luck is completing just 57.8 percent of his passes while throwing for two touchdowns and five interceptions in that span. Luck is without favorite target Reggie Wayne and will be dealing with a Cincinnati pass rush that has recorded 36 sacks - including 18 in the last five games - and is a perfect 5-0 at home.

The Cincinnati Bengals are one of the most dominant defensive teams in the NFL but are being overlooked among the contenders in the AFC. Cincinnati is two games up on the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North and would like to have the division sewn up before closing the regular season against the Ravens on Dec. 29.

LINE: The Bengals opened -5 and are now -6.5. The total opened at 44 and is down to 43.
WEATHER: Freezing rain and/or snow is in the forecast.
POWER RANKINGS: Indianapolis (-2.0) + Cincinnati (-3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals -4.5

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. AFC.
* Under is 11-3-1 in Bengals last 15 vs. AFC.


Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-10.5, 47)

Cleveland has dropped three straight and six of seven to fall out of the wild-card race and is struggling on defense along with the quarterback issues. The Browns are surrendering an average of 30.8 points in their last six losses despite ranking fourth in the NFL in total defense.

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots offense are making second-half comebacks a staple of their weekly plan. Brady and company would prefer to jump out early and will attempt to avoid climbing out of a big hole when they host the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.

LINE: The Pats opened -11 and are now -10.5. The total is up one point from the opening 46.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with partly cloudy skies.
POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+6.0) + New England (-6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -15.0

TRENDS:

* Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.


Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (-3, 40)

Oakland mathematically is still alive for the playoff spot but realistically is playing out the string. The Raiders have lost four of their last five contests, including a 31-24 defeat against Dallas on Nov. 28 in which it squandered a 14-point lead and was outscored 17-3 in the second half.

Despite their current woes, the New York Jets still are in the race for a wild-card spot in the AFC. They can strengthen their chances with a victory over the visiting Oakland Raiders on Sunday. New York has received disappointing performances from rookie quarterback Geno Smith while losing three straight games since its bye week but still finds itself only one game behind Baltimore and Miami for the second wild card.

LINE: The Jets opened -2.5 and are now -3. The total is down a half-point to 40.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with a 47 percent chance of rain and/or snow.
POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+5.5) - New York (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Jets -3.0

TRENDS:

* Home team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. loss.
* Over is 4-0-1 in Raiders last five games overall.


Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 44)

Not much has gone right for Atlanta, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where it ranks 20th against the pass and 30th against the run. Matt Ryan and the passing game have put up decent numbers, but mostly out of necessity. The Falcons rank 29th in the league in rushing (81.1 yards per game) and have played from behind most of the season.

The Green Bay Packers' playoff hopes are on life support and might not survive another week without Aaron Rodgers as they prepare for Sunday's visit by the Atlanta Falcons. Green Bay's quarterback will sit out a fifth consecutive game due to a broken collarbone and the Packers are winless since he was injured Nov. 4, falling two games behind NFC North leader Detroit in the win column.

LINE: The Pack opened -3.5. The total has dropped from the opening 46.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for an 84 percent chance of snow with temperatures in the mid-teens.
POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (+5.0) - Green Bay (+7.0) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -1.0

TRENDS:

* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. win.
* Packers are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. NFC.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday's NFL Week 14 betting cheat sheet: Late action
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-12, 48.5)

Tennessee, which is playing its third straight road game, had its AFC South title hopes all but dashed in last week's 22-14 loss at Indianapolis and has little margin for error in the clustered playoff race. The Titans will need a big game out of running back Chris Johnson - who has only one 100-yard game this season - to keep the ball out of the hands of Manning. The Titans are desperate for a victory, trailing Baltimore and Miami by one game for the AFC's sixth seed.

The Denver Broncos have a chance to celebrate head coach John Fox's return to the sideline by clinching a playoff berth. Peyton Manning carved up the Chiefs for 403 yards and five touchdown passes - four to Eric Decker - in last week's come-from-behind victory, pushing his season totals to 41 scoring passes against only nine interceptions.

LINE: The Broncos opened -13 and are now -12. The total opened 50.5 and is now 48.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-teens with a 44 percent chance of snow.
POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+2.5) - Denver (-7.5) + home field (-3.0) = Denver -13.0

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.


St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-6, 41.5)

St. Louis has proved to be up to the challenge against top competition, knocking off Indianapolis and Chicago in back-to-back games before falling 23-13 at San Francisco last week. Quarterback Kellen Clemens is completing only 51.7 percent of his passes since taking over for the injured Sam Bradford and could be without center Scott Wells (broken ankle) and left tackle Jake Long (head).

The Cardinals will look to continue their wild-card push at the expense of the Rams when they host their division foe on Sunday. Arizona is a game behind the San Francisco 49ers for the No. 6 spot in the NFC. Arizona WR Larry Fitzgerald caught two TD passes in the first meeting and has at least one TD reception in three straight games.

LINE: The Cards opened -6.5 and are now -6. The total has held at 41.5.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+3.0) - Arizona (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Arizona -8.0

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Arizona.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. NFC.


Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 41.5)

The Seattle Seahawks are trying to wrap up the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They are three games up on the 49ers in the division with four games left and is coming off its most impressive performance yet in the 34-7 triumph over the Saints.

San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick is not having such an easy go of it in his second year as a starter and leads a passing attack that ranks 31st in the league with an average of 180.3 yards. Kaepernick is starting to come around in the last two weeks, however, with a total of 510 yards and four touchdowns in back-to-back wins.

LINE: The Niners opened -2.5. The total is currently 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s.
POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-8.0) - San Francisco (-6.5) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -1.5

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in 49ers last four games overall.


New York Giants at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 47)

Justin Tuck collected a career-best four sacks versus the Redskins to earn NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors. Tuck's increased workload came in the absence of fellow defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, who is in line to miss his second straight game with a shoulder injury. New York has experienced production from its 26th-ranked running game as Andre Brown scored twice last week and has reeled in at least three receptions in each of the last three contests.

The Chargers have dropped four of their last five and committed three turnovers in last week's 17-10 setback to Cincinnati to fall one game behind Baltimore for the coveted sixth seed in the AFC. While San Diego veteran TE Antonio Gates often receives the fanfare, backup Ladarius Green has seen his snaps increase and scored in consecutive games.

LINE: The Chargers opened -3 and are now -3.5. The total has held at 47.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s.
POWER RANKINGS: New York (+1.0) + San Diego (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Chargers -3.0

TRENDS:

* Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 13-3 in Giants last 16 road games.


Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3, 46)

The Panthers surged into a tie for the division lead on the heels of an eight-game winning streak in which they have allowed only one opponent to score 20 points. Cam Newton has directed Carolina to four road victories during the eight-game run and will try to hand New Orleans it first home loss.

New Orleans' high-powered offense was limited to 188 total yards in the 34-7 drubbing in Seattle - the lowest total since Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees arrived in New Orleans. Brees was held to 147 yards passing last week but has eclipsed 300 yards in each of the six home games this season.

LINE: The Saints opened -4 and are now -3. The total is up a half-point from the opening 45.5.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (-5.5) - New Orleans (-6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -3.5

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Panthers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings in New Orleans.
* Under is 7-1 in Saints last eight vs. NFC.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NFL injury report: Four injuries undervalued by oddsmakers

Dennis Pitta, TE, Baltimore Ravens (probable, hip)

Pitta, who has missed the entire season due to hip surgery, is a great route runner who often gets separation and runs the ball well. He had huge success in the red zone with seven of his nine touchdowns coming from inside the 20-yard line last year. He's one of Joe Flacco’s favorite targets and his return should give the Ravens a boost in the red zone Sunday.

Baltimore is a 7-point favorite against Minnesota. The total is 42.5.


Mike Brisiel, G, Oakland Raiders, (questionable, knee)

The Raiders had six offensive starters out of practice this week, including their starting right guard. Brisiel went down with a knee injury on Thanksgiving and is a major contributor to the run game. Running back Darren McFadden is out and third-stringer Jeremy Stewart is questionable, leaving a dinged up Rashad Jennings to shoulder the load on the ground - possibly without one of his best blockers.

Oakland is a 2.5-point road underdog against the Jets. The total is 40.


Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans (questionable, concussion)

With Walker questionable and TE Craig Stevens out of action, the Titans are left with only one healthy tight end. In an offense that relies heavily on the position for blocking and receiving, Tennessee may be forced to improvise. Walker is the Titans' second-leading receiver with 454 yards and leads the teams in touchdown catches with five.

Tennessee is a 12.5-point road underdog against Denver. The total is 48.5


Greg Toler, CB, Indianapolis Colts (out, groin)

The Colts’ secondary has been struggling since the bye week, allowing 790 passing yards and six TDs in three weeks – all with Toler on the sidelines. They have gone weeks without an interception and will likely continue to give up huge receiving yards with Toler out against a Bengals team that likes to attack downfield.

The Colts are 6.5-point underdogs against Cincinnati. The total is 43.

[Udog]

NFL weather report: Sunday's forecasts

Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 41.5)
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-30s with frozen rain and/or snow. Wind will blow across the field at 5 mph.

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (+3, 43.5)
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-30s with frozen rain and/or snow. Wind will blow across the field at 5 mph.

Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 42)
Temperatures will be in the high-70s with wind blowing toward the N end zone at 6 mph.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 40.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with wind blowing across the field at 10 mph. There is a 66 percent chance of snow.

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 52)
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-30s with a 76 percent chance of snow. Wind will blow across the field at 5 mph.

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 43)
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-20s with snow and/or freezing rain. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-10, 47)
Temperatures will be in the low-30s under partly cloudy skies.

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (-3, 40)
Temperatures will be in the low-30s with a 47 percent chance of snow.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 44)
Forecasts are calling for an 84 percent chance of snow. Temperatures will be in the mid-teens.

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-12, 48.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-teens with a 44 percent chance of snow. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 4 mph.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 41.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with wind blowing across the field at 5 mph.

New York Giants at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 47)
Temperatures will be in the low-50s with calm conditions.

[Udog]

Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

As the clock ticks on the NFL regular season, competition on the field gets more heated as teams fight for their postseason-lives.

We talk to oddsmakers about the action coming in on some of Sunday's matchups and where the lines could close come kickoff:

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins - Open: -3

The wheels have come off for one of the better stories of the early part of the season. The Chiefs started out like gangbusters, sprinting out of the gate to a 9-0 SU (6-3 ATS) record. They've pulled a 180 since their bye week, however, going 0-3 SU and ATS. Early money was on the Chiefs, with a little action coming back on the home team recently.

"I don’t think the 3 will break, but some are hanging juiced -2.5’s," says Aron Black of Bet365. "It goes against the moves later in the week, as we are loaded up on Kansas City -3 by a wide margin. As it stands, this is our most lopsided game for action on one team."


Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals - Open: -5, Move: -6.5

The Bengals, owners of one of the league's fiercest defenses, have won and covered in back-to-back outings and bettors lined up to get them at the opening number. Action came back on the Colts, but bettors are treading lightly with some key injuries for the road team.

"Early action was all about Cincy, but with the move to 6.5 we are seeing Indy action," Black says. "The injury reports haven’t been too kind to the Colts, leading to the moves, and there are still questionables for the Colts along with those expected to miss. Action overall now sees this as the most balanced game for us so far, but if the line keeps going to Cincy, the action from the public will too."


Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers - Open: -2.5

One of Sunday's marquee matchups sees these NFC West powerhouses square off in the Bay. The majority of books opened this game with the home team as 2.5-point faves but as kickoff approaches more of the action could come in on the division leaders.

"The line has been pretty steady all week, but has moved slightly towards Seattle the last day or so," Black tells Covers. "The injury report lists numerous questionables for San Fran - most of whom should play - but if they get a few that are out, then this line will obviously carry on towards to the Seahawks. Seattle is about 2-to-1 ATS, but is 3-to-1 on SU plays."

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Colts at Bengals: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 43)

The Cincinnati Bengals are one of the most dominant defensive teams in the NFL but are being overlooked among the contenders in the AFC. The Bengals will attempt to change that perception when they host another division leader in the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. Cincinnati is fifth in the NFL in scoring defense and can take another step toward clinching the AFC North by shutting down Andrew Luck and the AFC South-leading Colts.

Indianapolis is enjoying a three-game lead in the AFC South but is showing some cracks with losses in two of the last four contests. Luck is completing just 57.8 percent of his passes while throwing for two touchdowns and five interceptions in that span. Luck is without favorite target Reggie Wayne and will be dealing with a Cincinnati pass rush that has recorded 36 sacks - including 18 in the last five games - and is a perfect 5-0 at home.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: The Bengals opened -5 and are now -6.5. The total is down one point from the opening 44.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-20s with snow and/or freezing rain.

ABOUT THE COLTS (8-4): Indianapolis all but clinched the division with a 22-14 triumph over Tennessee last weekend - its second win over the second-place Titans in three weeks - and can officially wrap up its second straight playoff berth with a win over Cincinnati. The Colts could use the recovery period gained by clinching early to rest up its offensive line, which is on to its fourth left guard with Hugh Thornton (neck) and Jeff Linkenbach (quad) ailing and Mike McGlynn struggling. “(I) have not made any final decisions on anything as far as the offensive line goes,” Colts coach Chuck Pagano told ESPN.com. “Just go to work on correcting things we need to correct.”

ABOUT THE BENGALS (8-4): Cincinnati is two games up on the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North and would like to have the division sewn up before closing the regular season against the Ravens on Dec. 29. Andy Dalton passed for a total of 283 yards in the last two games but managed to fit four TD passes into those two triumphs while leaning on a running game that is improving. BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushed for 92 yards in last week’s 17-10 win at San Diego, and he and Giovani Bernard have combined for 501 yards over the last four games.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. AFC.
* Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Colts last six games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Colts LB Robert Mathis (15.5) is one sack away from passing Dwight Freeney (16) for the franchise record.

2. Dalton is one of two quarterbacks in NFL history (Peyton Manning) to throw for at least 3,000 yards in each of his first three seasons.

3. Cincinnati snapped a seven-game losing streak in the series with a 27-17 victory in the last meeting on Oct. 16, 2011.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chiefs at Redskins: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (+3, 43.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs' dream season has come crashing back to reality with three straight losses, but they can move a step closer to clinching a playoff spot with a victory at Washington on Sunday. The Chiefs would punch their ticket to the postseason with a win over the Redskins and a loss or tie from Miami or Baltimore. Washington is out of playoff contention after squandering a 14-point lead Sunday against the New York Giants for its fourth straight loss.

While both teams come in riding losing streaks, the downturn has to come as more of a shock to Kansas City, which has seen its hopes of claiming the AFC's top seed dwindle after a 9-0 start. "I think it's important that you stick with the process," Chiefs coach Andy Reid told reporters. "It's important to trust that and believe in it. They're learning that as you go through, that's the ebb and flow of the season in the National Football League." The Chiefs have won seven of eight all-time meetings, including a 14-6 victory at Washington in the most recent clash in 2009.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Kansas City opened -3. The total is down from the opening 44.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with snow and/or freezing rain in the forecast.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (9-3): Kansas City has found itself unable to keep pace in shootouts the past three weeks, losing to Denver twice with a heartbreaking defeat to San Diego sandwiched between. This is a much better matchup for the Chiefs, who allow an AFC-low 17.8 points per game and boast an NFL-best turnover margin of plus-14. The injury bug has hit the Chiefs at a bad time with linebacker Justin Houston (team-high 11 sacks) out with an elbow injury and left tackle Branden Albert (knee) and tight end Anthony Fasano (concussion) unlikely to play.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (3-9): Three of Washington's four consecutive losses have come by eight points or fewer, and the league's best ground game has been impressive of late. Quarterback Robert Griffin III turned in one of his best efforts of the season last week, completing 24-of-32 passes for 207 yards and a touchdown and rushing for a season-high 88 yards on 12 carries. The defense has been one of the worst in the league but gave up a season-low 286 total yards last week against the Giants.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 7-1-1 in Chiefs last nine road games.
* Under is 5-2 in Redskins last seven games following a ATS loss.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Kansas City coach Andy Reid needs one victory to become the 21st coach in NFL history with 150 wins, including the postseason.

2. Washington has rushed for at least 100 yards in 11 consecutive games, two shy of tying its longest streak under coach Mike Shanahan.

3. Smith needs 27 rushing yards to pass Tyler Thigpen (386 in 2008) for the most in a season by a Chiefs quarterback.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

Essential betting tidbits for Week 14 of NFL football

- The Minnesota Vikings allow opponents to score 30.3 points per game at the Metrodome.

- TE Dennis Pitta has been activated by the Baltimore Ravens and will be available to play Sunday. Pitta had 61 catches for 669 yards and seven TDs in 2012.

- The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS against the NFC East this season. They are 3-point faves at Washington Sunday.

- Washington has rushed for at least 100 yards in 11 consecutive games, two shy of tying its longest streak under coach Mike Shanahan.

- The Buffalo Bills have the most sacks in the NFL, heading into Sunday's action with 43.

- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead the all-time series with Buffalo 6-3, with eight of the nine meetings played in Tampa Bay.

- Miami Dolphins CB Brent Grimes, who will likely spend his time covering Antonio Brown, has yet to allow a touchdown reception.

- The Pittsburgh Steelers will get some much needed blocking assistance as they've activated TE Matt Spaeth.

- The Philadelphia Eagles own the league's worst pass defense and get to face Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson as the Lions come to town.

- Andy Dalton has thrown for over 270-plus yards in five of his last seven games.

- A win over the Bengals Sunday and the Indianapolis Colts will clinch their second-straight playoff berth.

- The New England Patriots are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five home games. The Pats are 10-point home faves against the Cleveland Browns Sunday.

- Browns WR Josh Gordon needs 41 more yards to break Cleveland’s single-season record (Braylon Edwards, 1,289).

- The New York Jets have scored a total of 20 points during their three-game losing streak and haven't produced a touchdown in their last two contests.

- The Oakland Raiders rank second in the NFL in first-quarter scoring with 7.2 points per first quarter, and sit eighth in the league in first-half points, averaging 13.1 points through the first two quarters.

- The Green Bay Packers have won 12 straight regular-season home games in December and January, the longest active streak in the league.

- The Atlanta Falcons are 0-3 SU and ATS in their three outdoor games this season. The Falcons are 3-point road faves at Green Bay.

- The top Covers Consensus play (73 percent) for Totals is the Over in the Tennessee Titans-Denver Broncos game.

- The St. Louis Rams have taken three straight in the series with Arizona and overcame an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit to take the Week 1 meeting.

- According to Cardinals coach Bruce Arians, QB Carson Palmer will be a game-day decision.

- San Francisco 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick ranks 32nd in the NFL with a 57.8 completion percentage.

- The Niners won last season's meeting in the Bay with the Seattle Seahawks by a score of 13-6.

- San Diego Chargers QB Philip Rivers does his best work in December, posting a 26-6 mark in the final month of the regular season.

- New York Giants RB Andre Brown has 83 carries for 343 yards and three TDs in his four games this season.

- The Carolina Panthers lead the NFL in time of possession, owning the ball at over 33 minutes per game.

- The New Orleans Saints average a whopping 33.2 points per game at home.

[jt4545]

Good luck udog

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, December 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football betting: Cowboys at Bears
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (-1, 48)

The margin for error is slim for the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears, who meet Monday night with their playoff hopes hanging in the balance. The host Bears can't afford a third straight loss, as they trail Detroit by a game in the NFC North and lost both head-to-head meetings with the Lions. The Cowboys have won two straight and are tied with Philadelphia atop the NFC East.

The Cowboys bolstered their playoff chances with a 31-24 win over Oakland on Thanksgiving, but they haven't had much luck in December - a month when quarterback Tony Romo is 11-15 as a starter. "It all comes with the dinner," Dallas coach Jason Garrett told reporters of the criticism of his quarterback. "He's got a position that is one of the great jobs on the planet. What comes with that is some of the scrutiny, and he understands that." The Bears won 34-18 last year in Dallas, intercepting Romo five times and taking two of them back for touchdowns.

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The line opened at +1.5 and after some back and forth, the number has settled at +1. The total opened at 49.5 and has been bet down to 48.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high teens with a 12 mph wind blowing across the field.

POWER RANKINGS: Dallas (-3) - Chicago (0) + home field (-3) = pk

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (7-5, 8-4 ATS): Dallas' playoff chances seemed slim after a 49-17 pummeling by New Orleans in Week 10, but the Cowboys have eked out close wins the past two weeks. The ground game has come to life with DeMarco Murray scoring a career-high three touchdowns against the Raiders, and that's likely to be a focus against the Bears' league-worst run defense. The defense has to be better in December, as the Cowboys rank last in the league in total yards allowed (421.6) and 22nd in scoring defense (25.3).

ABOUT THE BEARS (6-6, 2-9-1 ATS): Chicago's hopes of an NFC North title took a hit when Robbie Gould missed a potential game-winning field goal in a 23-20 overtime loss at Minnesota last week. Quarterback Jay Cutler has been ruled out for Sunday, meaning Josh McCown will make his fourth straight start and his fifth in six games. The defense has struggled, especially against the run, and linebacker Lance Briggs will miss his sixth straight game with a shoulder injury.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Monday night games.
* Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last five games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Bears last five versus a team with a wining record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Romo has passed for 300 yards in all three games against Chicago.

2. Chicago RB Matt Forte needs 29 rushing yards to reach 1,000 for the fourth time in his career.

3. McCown has passed for 1,461 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception and boasts a 103.6 rating.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, December 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tale of the tape: Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dallas travel to Chicago for a Monday night matchup with two teams struggling defensively. The Bears playoff hopes are still alive and the Cowboys try to hang on to the NFC's 4th seed.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Cowboys suffered a tough loss last week with Lance Dunbar out for the season. The Cowboys are ranked 3rd in the NFL with 27.4 points per game and 15th in passing yards at 243.3. Tony Romo has completed 64.8 percent of his passes with a ratio of 24 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. The Cowboys have not been very good rushing the ball ranking 27th. They have not attempted a single 4th down this year, and are only completing 35 percent of their 3rd down conversion attempts.

Led by Josh McCown, the Bears come in to Week 14 ranking 5th in total points scored with 26.9. McCown has completed 65.2 percent of his passes with a ratio of 9 TD to 1 INT. The Bears are ranked 8th in the league in total yards and have receiver Alshon Jeffery comes off a career best performance last week with 12 receptions for 249 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jeffery has had a consistent year and alongside Brandon Marshall, the Cowboys secondary could be in for a very long day. When they are not throwing the ball, Chicago still has Matt Forte in the backfield having a great year, only 29 yards short of his fourth 1000 yard rushing season.

Edge: Chicago Bears


Defense

The Cowboys defense come in to Week 14 allowing the most yards in the NFL per game with 421.6. The Cowboys defense are 8th in the league in total tackles (622) despite their inability to pressure quarterbacks and get sacks. The Cowboys have struggled giving up 126.7 rushing yards per game and are ranked 30th in total passing yards per game allowing 294.9. In a 3week span, the Cowboys have given up over 600 yards of offense in games to the Lions and Saints.

The Bears defense are ranked 14th in the NFL against the pass and dead last against the run. Without Lance Briggs, Chicago will continue to struggle bringing pressure and getting sacks. The Bears defense have allowed the most runs of 20 or more yards in the NFL with 15. The Bears have been great at forcing fumbles ranking 2nd in the league with 19 forced fumbles and 8 recovered. The Bears defense have 4 interceptions returned for touchdowns ranking them 1st overall.

Edge: Chicago Bears


Special Teams

The Cowboys special teams unit have allowed only five returns longer than 30 yards. Dwyane Harris is 2nd in the NFL in averaging 31.3 average yards per kickoff return and 2nd with 14 average yards per punt return. Harris has a return for 90 yards and has been a lethal weapon for the Cowboys. Harris is questionable for Monday’s game with a hamstring injury. Kicker Dan Bailey is 19/21 in field goals made with a long of 53 yards. Bailey is a perfect 6/6 in field goals made from 40 - 49 yards.

The Bears have started 18 drives inside their 20, the second most inside the 20 drives In the league. The Bears lead the NFL with seven returns of less than 10 yards. They have allowed a league low 12 returns for 109 yards. Kicker Robbie Gould has made 21/24 field goals with a long of 58.

Edge: Chicago Bears


Notable Quotable

"I think it's real," Jones said. "I don't mean to be trite, but you can probably tie that to why we have had disappointments in December. In this time of the NFL, it's hard to build up enough edge to play at that level during December, so you'd better be having your arrow going up rather than going down. – Jerry Jones on the Cowboys 25-41 record in December.

“It still is a great franchise. You grew up watching those guys and knew how great their defenses are,” Murray said. “They have a lot of pride, Monday night game, so definitely don’t take anything for granted. I know they’re going to be ready to play.” – DeMarco Murray on the Chicago Bears defense.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

Monday night weather report: High winds in Chicago

There will be high winds in the Windy City, when the Dallas Cowboys travel to Chicago to take on the Bears on Monday night.

Chicago will live up to it's namesake as there will be a blustery 14 mile per hour wind blowing across the field at kickoff. There won't be any snow in Chicago, after what was a blizzard filled weekend in the NFL, but it will be freezing. The temperature at kickoff will be around 17 degrees.