NFL week 14 w/big play

[roccodean]

3* Washington +4.5 over KC (sportsbook.ag)
Consensus line currently 3.5..will close 3 at sharp books so would get in asap
May upgrade to 4* after run trends
2* at +3 or better
Full analysis to follow...may be my biggest play of year after I run my trends

[roccodean]

2* Chicago +1 over Dallas

[roccodean]

1* sf -2.5 (-120)

[roccodean]

1* Saints -3 over Carolina
Line is 3 everywhere, I think we see buy back and would get in as soon as possible. Line won't get any better.
Full analysis to follow, but I see why sharps took Car at +3.5 or better. In a vacuum, the Panthers are a better team (my rankings have them 1 point better). But, games aren't played in a vacuum. Primetime game, in the dome, after Saints got blown out. Sometimes we over analyze, when it is really simple.

[roccodean]

analysis from above games:


3* Washington
KC may be 9-3 but they are pretenders. I have been waiting to bet against them for a few weeks and the time is finally here. Win/loss record is a very small piece of how good a team is...let's look at KC's stats. Their strength is their run game that averages 4.6 YPR (6th in NFL), but the Redskins run D is pretty good (13th). The Chiefs other stats are terrible. They are dead last in YPPA (6.2). The media will have you believe their defense is great, but they allow 4.6 YPR (27th in NFL) and 7.4 YPPA (20th). A big part why they are 9-3 is because they have played the easiest schedule in the league thus far. Also they are +14 in turnovers (1st in NFL) including +6 in fumbles which is 1st in the NFL. Smith doesn't throw a lot of INT's, but the fumbles are complete randomness and should regress to the mean (remember the team that wins the TO margin covers 77% of the time). You have to buy low to make money in the NFL, and it doesn't get much lower than the Redskins. They are in a great spot here though because it is their 3rd consecutive home game and teams that lose their first two in this position are great ATS. Washington's pass D is their weakness (8.6 YPPA) but as I said above KC's pass offense is not strong. The Skins average an astounding 5 YPR (1st in NFL). My calculated line is KC -1.5 so the value is definitely on the Skins. I think Washington gets the win here and would take a piece on the money line also.


1* SF
San Fran has been playing great football recently and now are laying under a FG at home. I think the only reason this line isn't 3 is because of Seattle's blowout of NO last week. Both of these teams stats are great. The Seahawks are 7th in YPR and 1st in YPPA, while the Niners are 14th in YPR and 8th in YPPA. Defensively SF allows 3.96 YPR (9th) and 6.3 YPPA (4th in NFL). I have 2 great trends favoring the Niners. My most powerful is 19-2-1 ATS! This one plays against teams that have won their last few games via a blowout. It is a small sample size because it happens only 1-2 times/year but it makes sense and it does not have a lot of variables. Another one is 56-24-3 ATS that plays against teams that win at home by 21+ points to extend a win streak and are now on the road this week (plus 2 more variables)...give me the Niners.

1* Saints
Sometimes we as handicappers over think games. The Saints look too easy laying only 3 at home in prime time...and maybe it is too easy. I can see why sharp bettors took the Panthers at 3.5+ based on pure numbers...but football is about more than numbers. The Saints are in a great spot here. They are coming off a blowout loss where they scored 7 points and are now playing a division game in prime time. Don't get me wrong I have Carolina as a top 5 team. I have bet Carolina often this year because they were undervalue in the market, but now the market has caught up. Carolina is 17th in YPR and 13th in YPPA. Defensively, they allow 3.8 YPR (6th) and 6.9 YPPA (10th). The Panthers secondary is vulnerable and I don't think they are going to be able to handle Jimmy Graham. Carolina has been very fortunate in the turnover category where they are +10 including +5 in fumbles. The Saints qualify for the same 56-24-3 ATS trend that plays against teams that win at home by 21+ points to extend a win streak and are now on the road this week (plus 2 more variables). Buy low (Saints), sell high (Panthers) !

[roccodean]

2* Bears
The only reason the Bears aren't favorites here is because Dallas has a star on it's helmet. This is pure public perception. Both defenses are bad. Dallas is 30th vs the run (4.8 YPR) and 24th in YPPA. Chicago allows 5 YPR and 7.8 YPPA. Chicago's offense is much better that Dallas'. Chicago averages 4.4 YPR (8th) and Hoyer has been playing very good ball. His QBR is 78.4 (ESPN's ranking) second only to P. Manning! Dallas is +12 in TO's (2nd in NFL) including +6 in fumbles (1st in NFL) which is unlikely to continue. I have a 107-52 ATS trend favoring the Bears based on a statistical indicator (as long as pick or dog). My calculated line is Chicago -2 so the value is on the Bears in my opinion. Give me the bears on Monday night!

[LeRoy]

stay hot Rocco I need to pick up another envelope

[zeib10]

Great write up. Best of luck this weekend.

[BigWeiner]

I think Washington wins outright. I like the call

[roccodean]

Thanks guys. Leroy...let's get you another rubber band stack!

2 more trends on Washington:
Teams w win % of .250 or less, from game 8 on, that have lost 3 or more consecutive games but allowed 30 pts or less in last game: 65-26-2 ATS as home dogs v >.500 SU teams incl 44-10-2 ATS since 1993.

Teams on 3rd consec home game that lost forst 2 are 20-6-1 ATS

[roccodean]

2-2 week but lost the big one on wash...on a 22-6 run...let's keep it rollin'!