NFL Week 13

[roccodean]

2* Jets -1.5

[LeRoy]

Nice sweep last week Are the Jets the only play this week or are you still researching the other matchups for another hot play or two thanks

[jt4545]

good luck

[Kaptain]

gl this weekend..........have a good/safe Holiday

[LeRoy]

nice call on Oakland Rocco had to sweat that one out

[roccodean]

thanks leroy
sorry couldnt post oak on here..time constraints on holiday weekend..had them on twitter/website

[roccodean]

lines via sportsbook:

2* Vikings +1

1* houston +9-like at 7.5+

1* rams +9--like at 7.5+

[LeRoy]

thanks leroy
sorry couldnt post oak on here..time constraints on holiday weekend..had them on twitter/website

got the Oakland play on your twitter thanks hope you had a nice thanksgiving

[roccodean]

u too

[roccodean]

3* JETS

When the media is constantly talking negative about a team (like the Jets), it is usually a time to bet them because the public will believe what the media spews and this will lead to line value. If the Jets were simply even on turnovers, they would have 2-3 more wins. Fumbles are simply luck and the Jets are -4 in fumbles. Smith throwing 18 interceptions is not luck. Smith is aware of the need to protect the ball and I am sure Rex Ryan is preaching ball control the his team. If the Jets are even in turnovers they get an easy win here and I think even in they are -1 in turnovers they get a win/cover. The Jets D is for real. They are 1st in NFL allowing only 2.9 YPR. This will put pressure on Tannehill...and I am happy with that. Miami is 15th in YPR and 22nd in YPPA (offensively) so I don't see them moving the ball in this game. The Jets have been very good at home this year. They beat the Bucs,Bills, Pats, Saints and lost to Pitt when the Steelers were in a great situation off bye (I had Pitt that game). The Jets are in a good schedulue spot off 2 road games and they qualify for a great trend that is 64% ATS over 150+ games playing on home teams that scored 7 or less last week.

2* MIN

The record may not reflect it but I think that the Vikings are nearly as good as the Bears. The Bears D is pitiful; they allow 4.9 YPR which is 30th in the NFL and they are 27th in YPPA allowed. AP should have a huge day (Minne is 3rd in YPR offensively). Chicago's offense is average (11th in YPR and YPPA), but Minesota's D isn't bad (18th v run and pass). My calculated line is Minnesota -3 so getting a home team below this key number is great. I have a great trend that favors the Vikes (101-48 ATS) due to their game last week vs. a div rival and another one this week. The Bears have been fortunate to have a +7 TO ratio, while the Vikes have been -8. I think Vikes dominate this game on the ground and get the win.

2* HOU

This is very similar the the bet I had when ATL was a big home dog vs the Saints a couple weeks ago. The market has drastically overreacted to Houston and this line is 2-3 points off (I have NE -6 as my calculated line). Value bets (wagers when you feel the oddsmakers are giving you extra points) are not always the easiest bet to make and they don't guarantee you wins in the short term. But, if your assessment is correct in the long term you will win! When looking at trends it is important that the trend makes sense. It is not important to me that Team A is 22-2 ATS on thursday when the sun is out and it is between 45-48 degrees Farenheit. There are too many trends on Houston to name. One of my favorites is betting on dogs that lost as 6 point+ favs last week (HOU) when facing a team that is .500+ (NE). This makes sense because just was we see here the market will overreact. Another one is: bet against teams with a winning record as road favs of 5+ (NE) vs a team with a win percent <.250 that is on a losing streak of 2+ (Hou). Again, in this case more often than not the dog will be getting more points than they should (ie there is value on the dog). Statistically, the Pats can't stop the run as they are 26th in YPR, while Houston is 8th in YPR offensively. Suprisingly, Houstons pass D only allows 6.7 YPPA (8th). Hou is -12 in TO's (2nd to last in NFL) including -4 in fumbles (random). They have only forced 4 INT's (last in league) which is not completely random but predominantly random. Hold your breath and take the Texans!

1* Rams

I think SF is slightly overrated and the Rams are underrated. The Rams have been playing good ball winning and covering 2 straight. Also, Fisher gets his team up to play good teams and as dogs. Fisher is 8-0 ATS as Rams HC vs teams with >.600 win percentage. Fisher through his career is 61% as a dog (89-58 ATS). Rams are 11th in YPR and I think they will be able to keep SF off the field. My calc line is SF -6.5 so the value is with the Rams.

[roccodean]

2* Cinci Pick em

[Sirporkie]

GL Rocco

[roccodean]

thanks all
4-2 week and 20-4 run!!! lets keep it going

[Cabomike]

Who do you like tonight?