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The St. Louis Rams will shred the Carolina
Panthers on Saturday. And if I were pretentious enough to label a game
as my NFL Playoff Game of the Year, then this game would be it. The
unsuspecting Panthers (and their backers) are neatly lined up as the
next victims in my amazing semifinal playoff system (I don't remember
where I came across this system originally, but since I found it a few
years ago, I have cashed in huge on all three of my betting
opportunities, and that's why I like to affectionately call it "my"
system, okay?) I believe I did a writeup last year when the Eagles were
a play in this round against Vick & the Falcons, but I'll gladly do it
again. Here it is:
Play ON a semifinal home team that...
1.) finished the regular season 12-4 or better
2.) failed to cover their final regular season game
3.) is facing an opponent off a Wild Card win of 7 points or more
Since the current playoff format was adopted in 1990, there have been
eleven such situations, and I'm here to report that the eleven rested
home favorites in this round have combined to go a perfect 11-0 SU &
ATS, winning by an average of twenty points per game. On average, these
teams were laying 7.5 points, just like Philly did last year and just
like St. Louis will this week.
1990
San Francisco -8 vs. Washington
49ers 28
Redskins 10
NY Giants -6.5 vs. Chicago
Giants 31
Bears 3
LA Raiders -7 vs. Cincinnati
Raiders 20
Bengals 10
1991
Washington -11.5 vs. Atlanta
Redskins 24
Falcons 7
1994
Pittsburgh -3.5 vs. Cleveland
Steelers 29
Browns 9
San Francisco -18 vs. Chicago
49ers 44
Bears 15
1996
Carolina +3 vs. Dallas
Panthers 26
Cowboys 17
1998
Denver -13.5 vs. Miami
Broncos 38
Dolphins 3
1999
St. Louis -7 vs. Minnesota
Rams 49
Vikings 37
2000
NY Giants -4 vs. Philadelphia
Giants 20
Eagles 10
2002
Philadelphia -7.5 vs. Atlanta
Eagles 20
Falcons 6
You know, with this kind of incredibly favorable betting situation
available to us pigskin junkies, you would think that bookies everywhere
would take a tremendous pounding every time this play came up. But no,
they don't. In fact, I'll bet they benefit from this scenario. If you
think about the setup here, it (sadly) makes sense. A team wins its Wild
Card game in impressive fashion and then takes to the road, getting a
bunch of points from a team who was screwing around and not looking
sharp (i.e. not covering) last time we saw them. So what's the classic
NFL knee-jerk reaction? It's to take that live doggie with all them
points! After all, they're playing so-and-so, and they're not playing
good anyhow! Last year the Falcons pulled the shocking and VERY
impressive 20-point SU win at hallowed Lambeau Field. They advanced to
Philadelphia, where the evil oddsmakers had placed an attractive 7.5
points next to their name. They were up against the Eagles, and if
you'll recall, the last we saw of the Eagles they were blowing a
Saturday afternoon game in the Meadowlands against the Giants, 10-7
(remember Akers missing the chip shot?)
Anyways, this sneaky setup sways people over to the dead wrong side.
This year's play is shaping up as a classic. Prior to Saturday night's
game, few people thought very highly of the Carolina Panthers. There was
much chatter across the boards about how Carolina barely won many of
their games, and how they were a piss-poor favorite all year. Three
magnificent hours of football later, after dominating Parcells and the
Cowboys, 29-10 in prime time on ABC, the chatter now turned to the stout
Carolina DEFENSE! And that +7.5 looked very generous and awfully
tempting against the Rams. And what of the Rams? Oh yeah, last we saw of
them they were f*cking off home field in the NFC by inexplicably and
disgracefully losing outright to the sorry Lions as a 12-point road
favorite. After that, I think just about everyone except maybe
Hardknocks summarily dismissed the Rams as a Super Bowl contender.
So there it is, now the Panthers are looking strong while the Rams, as
far as we can remember, are in disarray. So what's going to happen? The
Rams will run them over and lots of folks with their seven-and-a-hook
will wonder why. And it's just a shame.
ON MY FREIND EMAIL THIS TO ME
GLLLLL PEACE
Panthers on Saturday. And if I were pretentious enough to label a game
as my NFL Playoff Game of the Year, then this game would be it. The
unsuspecting Panthers (and their backers) are neatly lined up as the
next victims in my amazing semifinal playoff system (I don't remember
where I came across this system originally, but since I found it a few
years ago, I have cashed in huge on all three of my betting
opportunities, and that's why I like to affectionately call it "my"
system, okay?) I believe I did a writeup last year when the Eagles were
a play in this round against Vick & the Falcons, but I'll gladly do it
again. Here it is:
Play ON a semifinal home team that...
1.) finished the regular season 12-4 or better
2.) failed to cover their final regular season game
3.) is facing an opponent off a Wild Card win of 7 points or more
Since the current playoff format was adopted in 1990, there have been
eleven such situations, and I'm here to report that the eleven rested
home favorites in this round have combined to go a perfect 11-0 SU &
ATS, winning by an average of twenty points per game. On average, these
teams were laying 7.5 points, just like Philly did last year and just
like St. Louis will this week.
1990
San Francisco -8 vs. Washington
49ers 28
Redskins 10
NY Giants -6.5 vs. Chicago
Giants 31
Bears 3
LA Raiders -7 vs. Cincinnati
Raiders 20
Bengals 10
1991
Washington -11.5 vs. Atlanta
Redskins 24
Falcons 7
1994
Pittsburgh -3.5 vs. Cleveland
Steelers 29
Browns 9
San Francisco -18 vs. Chicago
49ers 44
Bears 15
1996
Carolina +3 vs. Dallas
Panthers 26
Cowboys 17
1998
Denver -13.5 vs. Miami
Broncos 38
Dolphins 3
1999
St. Louis -7 vs. Minnesota
Rams 49
Vikings 37
2000
NY Giants -4 vs. Philadelphia
Giants 20
Eagles 10
2002
Philadelphia -7.5 vs. Atlanta
Eagles 20
Falcons 6
You know, with this kind of incredibly favorable betting situation
available to us pigskin junkies, you would think that bookies everywhere
would take a tremendous pounding every time this play came up. But no,
they don't. In fact, I'll bet they benefit from this scenario. If you
think about the setup here, it (sadly) makes sense. A team wins its Wild
Card game in impressive fashion and then takes to the road, getting a
bunch of points from a team who was screwing around and not looking
sharp (i.e. not covering) last time we saw them. So what's the classic
NFL knee-jerk reaction? It's to take that live doggie with all them
points! After all, they're playing so-and-so, and they're not playing
good anyhow! Last year the Falcons pulled the shocking and VERY
impressive 20-point SU win at hallowed Lambeau Field. They advanced to
Philadelphia, where the evil oddsmakers had placed an attractive 7.5
points next to their name. They were up against the Eagles, and if
you'll recall, the last we saw of the Eagles they were blowing a
Saturday afternoon game in the Meadowlands against the Giants, 10-7
(remember Akers missing the chip shot?)
Anyways, this sneaky setup sways people over to the dead wrong side.
This year's play is shaping up as a classic. Prior to Saturday night's
game, few people thought very highly of the Carolina Panthers. There was
much chatter across the boards about how Carolina barely won many of
their games, and how they were a piss-poor favorite all year. Three
magnificent hours of football later, after dominating Parcells and the
Cowboys, 29-10 in prime time on ABC, the chatter now turned to the stout
Carolina DEFENSE! And that +7.5 looked very generous and awfully
tempting against the Rams. And what of the Rams? Oh yeah, last we saw of
them they were f*cking off home field in the NFC by inexplicably and
disgracefully losing outright to the sorry Lions as a 12-point road
favorite. After that, I think just about everyone except maybe
Hardknocks summarily dismissed the Rams as a Super Bowl contender.
So there it is, now the Panthers are looking strong while the Rams, as
far as we can remember, are in disarray. So what's going to happen? The
Rams will run them over and lots of folks with their seven-and-a-hook
will wonder why. And it's just a shame.
ON MY FREIND EMAIL THIS TO ME
GLLLLL PEACE
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