NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (Thursday, November 21 - Monday, November 25)

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 24

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Sunday's NFL Week 12 betting cheat sheet: Early action
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-1, 40)

Pittsburgh is riding a resurgent Ben Roethlisberger, who was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week after passing for 367 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions last week. Roethlisberger is 15-1 as a starter against the Browns and has 24 TDs and 10 interceptions against them. The defense has played inconsistently, holding six opponents under 300 total yards and giving up 393 or more in its other four games.

Cleveland has won three of its last four home games but stumbled on the road last week, committing four turnovers in a 41-20 loss at Cincinnati. The defense has kept the Browns competitive, ranking fifth in total yards (306.5) and in the top eight against both the run and the pass. It's another story on offense, where Brandon Weeden's ineffectiveness and Brian Hoyer's knee injury have forced the Browns to turn to veteran Jason Campbell.
LINE: Cleveland opened -2 but has been bet down to -1. The total is down from 41.5 to 40.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with a 40 percent chance of snow and wind blowing across the width of the field at 17 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (+2.5) - Cleveland (+3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Browns -2

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
* Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. AFC foes.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.



Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-9.5, 48.5)

While Detroit wide receiver Calvin Johnson leads the league in receiving yards (1,083) and touchdowns (11), Tampa Bay believes cornerback Darrelle Revis is more than up to the task of guarding him. The two All-Pros have tangled once before, with Revis limiting Johnson to one catch for 13 yards in a meeting four years ago. Tampa Bay rookie QB Mike Glennon has thrown a touchdown pass in all seven appearances this season.

Reggie Bush fumbled twice - losing one - to find himself on the bench before receiving limited work when backup Joique Bell suffered an Achilles injury. Bush struggled on Sunday - as he has in all four of the team's losses - and has combined for at least 100 yards rushing and receiving in all of Detroit's wins. Bush, who still has the confidence of head coach Jim Schwartz, has since promised he won't fumble again this season.

LINE: Detroit opened -10 but has been bet down to -9.5. The total has held steady at 48.5.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+5.0) + Detroit (-3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -11

TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
* Over is 17-8-1 in Detroit's previous 26 games following an ATS loss.



Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-4, 43.5)

Wide receiver Greg Jennings (Achilles) returned to practice Thursday while running back Adrian Peterson (groin) sat out again, but coach Leslie Frazier said they both should be ready for the game. Peterson, who vowed to break the NFL's single-season rushing mark before the campaign began, won't come close to that mark as he has only 851 yards and nine touchdowns.

Green Bay players aren't afraid to call this a must-win as the Packers sit a game behind both Chicago and Detroit in the division race. Green Bay has won seven of the last eight matchups with Minnesota, including a 24-10 victory in last season's playoff opener at Lambeau Field. The Packers have lost tight end Jermichael Finley for the season and have to wait until Week 15 for the return of wide receiver Randall Cobb.

LINE: Green Bay opened -5 but has been bet down to -4. The total has dropped a half-point to 43.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-20s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 8 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+6.0) - Green Bay (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -4.5

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games in Week 12.
* Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games vs. teams with losing records.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.



Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-10, 43.5)

Leading tackler Paul Posluszny will be back after the middle linebacker missed last weekend's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars due to a concussion. Jacksonville held the Cardinals to 14 rushing yards, prompting Posluszny (88 tackles) to joke that perhaps his presence isn’t all that important. The offense’s rushing abilities were just as meager as the Jaguars had a season-worst 32 rushing yards

Houston quarterback Case Keenum tossed three touchdown passes in back-to-back games but head coach Gary Kubiak didn’t like what he was seeing in the third quarter of the Oakland contest and pulled him in favor of Matt Schaub. Andre Johnson is 10 receptions away from becoming the 15th player in NFL history to reach 900, while defensive end J.J. Watt (8.5 sacks) heads the league’s top defense (286.1 yards per game).

LINE: Houston has dropped from a -10.5 open to -10. The total is up a half-point to 43.5.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+9.0) - Houston (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Texans -7

TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
* Texans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
* Under is 10-3-1 in Jacksonville's last 14 games vs. the AFC South.



Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams (-1, 45)

McCown's emergence is in line with an emerging theme in Chicago - a number of key players have been lost to injury but Marc Trestman's squad remains in the thick of the playoff race. Star linebacker Lance Briggs remains out with a shoulder injury but defensive end Shea McClellin (hamstring) went through a full practice on Thursday. Fellow defensive linemen Jeremiah Ratliff and Stephen Paea are expected to miss Sunday's game.

The Rams still have faint hopes of getting into the wild-card mix, although they will need lots of help and some upsets in a stretch run that includes games at San Francisco, Arizona and Seattle and a home game against New Orleans. That makes the meeting with the Bears a virtual must-win, and to find success St. Louis may lean heavily on standout rookie running back Zac Stacy, who has averaged 107.7 yards in the last three games.

LINE: Game opened as a pick before being bet up to St. Louis -1. The total is down a half-point to 45.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-2.0) + St. Louis (+4.5) - home field (-3.0) = Bears -3.5

TRENDS:

* Bears are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs. NFC opponents.
* Rams are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. teams with winning road records.
* Under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.



New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 39)

New York is the first team to alternate wins and losses through the first 10 games of the season and is due for a victory if that pattern holds. The Jets have been outscored by 85 points - worse than every AFC team except the 1-9 Jacksonville Jaguars - and have recorded each of their five wins by a touchdown or fewer thanks to a strong running game on offense and a strong defense against the run on the other side.

Baltimore’s Super Bowl hangover is threatening to knock it out of the playoff hunt and tight losses have been the biggest concern. The Ravens dropped a 23-20 overtime decision at Chicago last week and their last five losses have come by an average of 3.4 points. Joe Flacco has much more experience than Jets counterpart Geno Smith, but he is looking just as lost recently with four interceptions in the last two games.

LINE: Ravens have held as 3.5-point faves. The total is down one point to 39.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 16 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: New York (+3.5) - Baltimore (+3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Ravens -3.5

TRENDS:

* Jets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight November games.
* Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on fieldturf.
* New York is 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings.



San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 42)

San Diego boasts the No. 7 offense (399.4 total yards) and the fourth-best passing game (287.9) as quarterback Philip Rivers has returned to form following two subpar seasons. Rivers leads the league with a 70.9 completion percentage and has completed at least 30 passes to five different receivers. The offense has difficulty keeping pace with one of the league's most porous defenses, though, as the Chargers give up 389 total yards per contest.

Kansas City didn't have enough offensive firepower to keep pace with Denver. The Chiefs lean on Jamaal Charles, who leads the team in rushing yards (803) and receptions (49) with a combined eight touchdowns, but they need some other playmakers to step up down the stretch and in the postseason. The defense owns the best turnover margin in the league (plus-15), leads the AFC in scoring defense (13.8) and ranks second in the NFL in sacks (36).

LINE: Chiefs opened -5 but have dropped to -4. The total is up a half-point to 42.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s under sunny skies.
POWER RANKINGS: San Diego (+1.0) + Kansas City (-3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -7.5

TRENDS:

* Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last four November games.
* Chiefs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. the AFC West.
* Under is 13-3 in Kansas City's last 16 home games vs. teams with losing road records.



Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (+4.5, 41)

Carolina's defense has quietly had a terrific season, allowing 24 points or less in all 10 games and yielding 12.8 points on average during the six-game winning streak. That said, standout defensive end Charles Johnson got leg-whipped against the Patriots and could be unavailable for Sunday's contest. One player who will definitely be healthy is wideout Steve Smith, who has 257 yards and four touchdowns in his last two matchups with Miami.

Tannehill has not thrown for more than 270 yards in a game since early October and has only thrown more than two touchdowns in a game once this season. Signed to a five-year, $60 million deal during the offseason, Mike Wallace only has one touchdown on the year and has totaled eight catches for 54 yards over the last two weeks. Miami has allowed 18.3 points over its last three contests.

LINE: Panthers opened at -3.5 but have been bet up to -4.5. The total is down a half-point to 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 40 percent chance of showers and wind blowing across the width of the field at 17 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (-4.5) + Miami (+3.5) - home field (-3.0) = Panthers -5

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.
* Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games.
* Under is 8-2 in Carolina's last 10 games on grass.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 24

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Sunday's NFL Week 12 betting cheat sheet: Late action
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Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders (+1, 41.5)

Fitzpatrick has compiled a passer rating of 111.0-plus in each of his last two starts, completing 44-of-61 for 486 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Running back Chris Johnson continues to display a maddening inconsistency, failing to surpass 39 yards rushing in five of the last seven but putting together a pair of two-TD performances in two of the past three contests.

McGloin, an undrafted free agent out of Penn State, was 18-of-32 for 197 yards in subbing for Terrelle Pryor, who was out with a knee injury. McGloin isn't the only backup to come up big for Oakland - running back Rashad Jennings rushed for a career-high 150 yards and a touchdown against Houston and has piled up 340 yards on the ground over the past three games in filling in for oft-injured Darren McFadden (hamstring).

LINE: Titans opened -1.5 but have been bet down to -1. The total is set at 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with sunny skies.
POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+4.0) - Oakland (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Raiders -1.5

TRENDS:

* Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Raiders are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. AFC foes.
* Under is 5-0 in Oakland's last five home games vs. teams with losing road records.



Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 45)

Indianapolis holds a three-game lead over the Tennessee Titans in one of the least-competitive division races going. The Colts have done well against the top of the NFC West, knocking off the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers, but were embarrassed 38-8 at home by the St. Louis Rams in Week 10. Indianapolis bounced back from that with a 30-27 road triumph at Tennessee as Donald Brown rushed for 80 yards and a pair of scores.

Arizona has won three straight to put itself back on the wild-card map and is rolling as Carson Palmer takes better care of the football. The veteran quarterback has thrown for six touchdowns and two interceptions during the winning streak and passed for 419 yards without throwing a pick in last week’s 27-14 win at Jacksonville. Cardinals OLB John Abraham has seven sacks in the last four contests.

LINE: The Cards opened -1 and are now -3. The total is up a half-point to 45.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Indianapolis (-3.5) + Arizona (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals -0.5

TRENDS:

* Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
* Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
* Under is 7-2 in Indianapolis' last nine games on grass.



Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-1, 45)

A defense that was carved up by New Orleans and Detroit will be under the gun due to the absence of injured linebackers Sean Lee and Jason Durant. Quarterback Tony Romo is routinely a lightning rod for criticism, but he has thrown for 21 touchdowns versus only six interceptions and has played exceptionally well against the Giants with 12 TD passes and a 117.7 rating in his last four meetings.

Eli Manning threw three interceptions and New York committed six turnovers in a 36-31 season-opening loss but still managed to make it a game as Victor Cruz caught three touchdown passes. Manning leads the league with 17 interceptions, although he has thrown only two in the past four games and finally has a semblance of a ground game with the return of running back Andre Brown from a broken leg.

LINE: Giants holding at -1. The total is down 1.5 points to 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with cloudy skies and wind blowing diagonally out of the northwest at 18 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Dallas (-2.0) - New York (0) + home field (-3.0) = Giants -1

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 12.
* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. the NFC.
* Under is 14-2 in New York's last 16 games following an ATS win.



Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+1, 53.5)

Denver became the first team to put up more than 17 points against Kansas City and is averaging a league-high 39.8 points behind Manning, who has thrown for 34 TDs versus six interceptions. Welker leads the team with 61 receptions and his nine TDs are second to tight end Julius Thomas (10), who is questionable with a knee injury, but the Broncos also additional weapons in wideouts Demaryius Thomas (60 catches, 9 TDs) and Eric Decker (54 catches).

New England fell two games behind the Chiefs and Broncos in the chase for the No. 1 seed after last week's loss at Carolina that featured a reversed penalty call on the final play. Brady went four straight games without completing 60 percent of his passes, but he has raised his game the past two weeks with the return of a healthy tight end Rob Gronkowski and wideout Danny Amendola.

LINE: Broncos have held at -1. The total has dropped 2.5 points to 53.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-20s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 15 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Denver (-8.0) + New England (-5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -0.5

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 November games.
* Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on fieldturf.
* Broncos are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 24

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Broncos at Patriots: What bettors need to know
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Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+1, 53.5)

The stakes are typically high when Peyton Manning and Tom Brady square off and that will again be the case Sunday night when the Denver Broncos visit the New England Patriots. The Broncos are in the midst of a grueling three-game stretch, sandwiching a pair of games with AFC West co-leader Kansas City around Sunday's matchup. The Patriots, coming off a controversial last-second loss at Carolina, need a win to maintain any hopes of securing home field for a potential playoff matchup.

Brady is 9-4 in his career against Manning, who is on a record-setting pace for passing yards thanks to the addition of former New England wide receiver Wes Welker. In six seasons in New England, Welker amassed a staggering 672 receptions, but his status is in question due to a concussion sustained in last week's 27-17 victory over the Chiefs. "This is a big game for both teams so you have to expect their best players," Brady said. "I'm sure all those guys will be ready to go."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The Pats opened as 1-point dogs. The total is down from the opening 56.

WEATHER: Wind will blow across the field at 15 mph. Temperatures will be in the low-20s.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (9-1): Denver became the first team to put up more than 17 points against Kansas City and is averaging a league-high 39.8 points behind Manning, who has thrown for 34 TDs versus six interceptions. Welker leads the team with 61 receptions and his nine TDs are second to tight end Julius Thomas (10), who is questionable with a knee injury, but the Broncos also additional weapons in wideouts Demaryius Thomas (60 catches, 9 TDs) and Eric Decker (54 catches). Knowshon Moreno is a dual threat out of the backfield for Manning, but overlooked has been the recent play of Denver's defense, which has yielded 19.3 points in its last three after giving up an average of 35.3 points in the previous three.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (7-3): New England fell two games behind the Chiefs and Broncos in the chase for the No. 1 seed after last week's loss at Carolina that featured a reversed penalty call on the final play. Brady went four straight games without completing 60 percent of his passes, but he has raised his game the past two weeks with the return of a healthy tight end Rob Gronkowski and wideout Danny Amendola. Running back Shane Vereen had eight catches last week in his first game since the season opener, but the Patriots have serious issues on defense - their top three cornerbacks are hurt and they have already lost starting nose tackle Vince Wolfork and middle linebacker Jerod Mayo for the season.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.
* Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 4-1 in Broncos last five road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning's 3,572 yards are the most in history through the first 10 games of a season.

2. Brady is 4-6 lifetime against Denver but has won the last three, including a 45-10 rout in the playoffs in January 2012.

3. The weather could be a great equalizer, with temperatures below freezing and 20 mph winds forecast for the contest.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 24

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Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady: Who's the better bet?
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Week 12 action in the NFL features a number of marquee matchups - but one clearly rises above the rest as Peyton Manning and his Denver Broncos visit New England for a showdown with Tom Brady and the Patriots.

Manning and Brady will face off for the 14th time - and will do so with playoff implications for both teams. The Broncos are tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for top spot in the AFC West, while Brady's Patriots have a two-game lead in the AFC East and can strengthen their hold on top spot with a win.

Here's a breakdown of the all-time matchup in a special Tale of the Tape:

Straight-up: Brady 9, Manning 4

Brady has dominated the head-to-head record between the future Hall-of-Fame QBs, winning the first six encounters - including the 2003 AFC Championship Game - and going 6-2 at Foxboro Stadium. Manning does have the most significant victory of the series, leading Indianapolis back from an 18-point deficit to prevail 38-34 in the 2006 AFC title game. It's the biggest comeback in conference championship history.

ATS: Brady (6-5-2)

This matchup is much closer than the SU history, in part due to a series of closely contested games. Brady kicked off the tete-a-tete with a 5-0-1 ATS record - highlighted by a 44-13 rout of Manning's Indianapolis Colts in Brady's first career start - but Manning covered in each of the next four matchups. The two have split three spreads since, including a narrow Brady cover in New England's thrilling 31-28 victory over Indianapolis in their last meeting in 2011.

O/U: 8-5-0

With two of the best quarterbacks of a generation facing off, points are often scored in bunches - and the Brady-Manning encounters are no exception. The first meeting saw 57 points scored, kicking off a trend that saw the teams combine for greater than 50 points in five of the first seven showdowns. The high-water mark of 72 points was set in New England's 38-34 win in Week 13 of the 2003 season and equaled in the Colts' 38-34 win in the 2006 AFC title game.

Passing yards: Manning 3,821, Brady, 3,059

Manning has edged out Brady when it comes to passing yardage, averaging a whopping 293.9 yards per game compared to Brady's mark of 235.3. Manning has a number of big yardage games against the Patriots on his career resume, including a 349-yard performance in the 2006 conference championship and a 326-yard effort in a 27-20 triumph over the Patriots earlier that season. Brady was hurt by a 168-yard showing in their first-ever encounter in 2001.

Touchdowns/interceptions: Manning: 27/19; Brady: 23/12

Known more as a gunslinger than his Patriots counterpart, it should surprise no one that Manning has more touchdowns and interceptions in the all-time series. Manning handed Brady his first victory as a starting quarterback, throwing three interceptions - two of which were run back for scores. He also has a place in history as the first quarterback to throw for four touchdowns against the Bill Belichick-led Patriots in 2003 - albeit in defeat.


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[Udog]

Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions - Open: -9.5, Move: -8

The Lions are coming off a very disappointing loss last week with a big concern being the performance of the offense. Matthew Stafford and the offense struggled in the loss to the Steelers and could not put a point on the board in the third and fourth quarters.

"Tampa Bay has been resurgent in the last couple of weeks with better defense and a much more established running game, which will be in for a big test against a stingy Lions run defense," says Black. "Action has been going more with the Bucs + points at about a 2-to-1 clip, with Detroit seeing more action as a SU parlay banker."

Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders - Open: -1.5, Move: +1

Though it may not seem like it, considering the teams featured, this game could be an important one for the AFC playoff picture with the loser probably destined for the golf course come playoff time. Raiders QB Matt McGloin played quite well in his debut and could be under center once again for the silver and black.

"One factor that will sway the line in Oakland's favor is if Terrelle Pryor can suit up," Black tells Covers. "He's reported to be the backup, and may possibly see the field in certain scenarios, or take the field if McGloin struggles. Given the injuries on both sides, it's a game that isn't getting any sustained action but so far it's pretty split. I expect that we will see Oakland action as the game draws closer."

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals - Open: -2.5, Move: -3

The subplot here is Cardinals coach Bruce Arians facing the team he served as interim coach when Chuck Pagano was battling leukemia. The Colts are facing some injury concerns and it's the Cards that have been a popular play among bettors since this line opened.

"Action has been loving the Cards by about a 3-to-1 clip, but SU sees more Indy action as the road dog," Black said. "The total has creeped up and sees Over play, as most non-conference games do."

[Udog]

NFL betting: Top 5 key Week 12 injuries

With the last of the bye weeks upon us, teams are officially out of additional rest time - and judging by the Week 12 injury list, some rosters could use plenty more.

The Minnesota Vikings will have a hobbled superstar in the lineup this week, while the Washington Redskins will be missing one of their top playmakers. And the San Francisco 49ers may be on the verge of getting back one of the key members of their NFC championship team from a season ago.

Here's a look at five of the most important injuries heading into Week 12:

Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers (PUP, Achilles)

There's some thought that Crabtree might be activated from the physically-unable-to-perform list as early as this week after he made an appearance at practice on Thursday. The 49ers remain mum about a timetable for the standout wide receiver, who hasn't played all season after suffering an Achilles injury over the summer. It may be a stretch to expect him back Monday night - but Crabtree could be back in Week 13, a development that would greatly bolster a pass attack that ranks last in the league in yards per game (168).

San Francisco is a 4.5-point favorite for the Monday nighter against the Redskins. The total is set at 47.


Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins (out, concussion)

While San Francisco goes into its tilt with Washington having known that Crabtree wouldn't be ready for Week 12, the Redskins face a key absence that is no less significant but slightly more of a surprise. Washington had hoped that Reed would be able to pass his concussion protocol in time for the game, but he remains in limbo and hasn't practiced all week. Reed has been one of quarterback Robert Griffin III's favorite targets to date - racking up 499 yards and three touchdowns - and leaves Pierre Garcon as the only pass-catching asset in Washington's arsenal.


Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos (questionable, knee)

The week's most highly anticipated showdown - Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning, Chapter 14 - may be missing one of the Broncos' key contributors. Thomas was limited in practice throughout the week, and interim head coach Jack Del Rio offered little information to reporters about the tight end's availability for the showdown in New England. Joel Dreessen would step into the starting role if Thomas couldn't go; the roster move would give Manning one fewer reliable option in his aerial attack, but Denver has plenty of other weapons where that is concerned.

The Broncos come into the Sunday nighter at New England as a 1-point favorite, with the total at 53.5.


Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings (questionable, groin)

Last year's most dynamic offensive player hasn't been nearly as explosive so far in 2013 - and a nagging groin injury will likely hamper him even further. Peterson sat out Thursday's practice but returned to the field the following day and assured reporters that the ailment wouldn't keep him out of action. While the injury may have had a hand in limiting the defending rushing champion to just 140 yards on 42 carries over back-to-back weeks, he'll be facing a Green Bay defense that allows more than four yards per carry.

Minnesota is a 4.5-point underdog in Green Bay on Sunday. The total is set at 43.5.


Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys (probable, hamstring)

The Cowboys will have a full complement of healthy receiving options for the first time since Week 3 as Austin makes his return from a nagging hamstring injury. After it was thought that he might be ready to return as soon as Week 10, Austin was a full participant in practice this week and declared himself close to 100 percent. Austin is expected to slide into the No. 2 receiver slot opposite Dez Bryant, though he and rookie Terrance Williams will both see plenty of targets - and may provide Bryant with a break from the weekly double-teams he has faced.

Dallas is installed as a one-point underdog against the host New York Giants. The total is 45.

[Udog]

NFL weather report: Sunday's forecasts

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-1, 40)
There is a 43 percent chance of snow. Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with wind blowing across the field at 19 mph.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 43.5)
Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph. Temperatures will be in the high-teens with partly cloudy skies.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 39)
Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 16 mph. There is a small chance of snow with temperatures in the mid-30s.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 42)
Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with wind blowing across the field at 5 mph.

Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (+4.5, 41)
There is a 40 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 15 mph.

Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders (+1, 41.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-60s with wind blowing across the field at 5 mph.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-1, 45)
Temperatures will be in the high-20s with wind blowing toward the SE endzone at 17 mph.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+1, 53.5)
Temperatures will be in the high-teens with wind blowing across the field at 15 mph.

[Udog]

Essential betting tidbits for Week 12 of NFL football

- Browns CB Joe Haden will be lined up against Steelers WR Antonio Brown Sunday. Haden held Bengals star-WR A.J. Green to two catches and seven yards last week.

- Pittsburgh is beginning to pick up the tempo on offense. The Steelers are averaging 71 plays per game over their last three games. For the season, they are averaging 64.8.

- Tampa Bay rookie QB Mike Glennon has thrown a touchdown pass in all seven appearances this season - and two in four of his last six. Glennon will face Detroit's 30th-ranked pass defense on Sunday.

- Detroit's offense struggled mightily in the second half of last week's loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They will welcome the (probable) return of WR Nate Burleson to the huddle. It will, at the very least, alleviate some of the pressure that Calvin Johnson has seen from opposing secondaries.

- An NFC North rivalry pits the Minnesota Vikings at the Green Bay Packers Sunday. The Vikes are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings at Lambeau Field.

- The Packers have lost back-to-back games at home and haven't lost three straight since 2006.

- Jacksonville QB Chad Henne passed for 354 yards and four touchdowns against the Texans in last season’s game. The Jags are currently 10-point road dogs Sunday.

- The Houston Texans have scored just two rushing touchdowns all season.

- New York Jets WR Jeremy Kerley has been ruled out of Sunday's game against the Baltimore Ravens.

- The Baltimore Ravens have won seven-straight games SU versus the New York Jets and are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

- The top Covers consensus ATS pick is Kansas City (-4) over the San Diego Chargers (67.37 percent).

- The Kansas City Chiefs defense owns the best turnover margin in the league (plus-15), leads the AFC in scoring defense (13.8) and ranks second in the NFL in sacks (36).

- The Bears have not fared well ATS versus NFC opposition. They are 3-13 against the spread in the last 16 matchups versus teams within the same conference.

- The St. Louis Rams have been a hot Over play in recent weeks. The Rams are 6-1 O/U in their last seven games overall. At 8-2 O/U on the season, they are tied with Denver and Minnesota for the best O/U marks.

- With last week's win versus the New England Patriots, the Carolina Panthers extended their SU and ATS winning streak to six games.

- Miami Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill has not thrown for more than 270 yards in a game since early October and has only thrown more than two touchdowns in a game once this season.

- Colts QB Andrew Luck has completed just 56.25 percent of his passes since Reggie Wayne went down with an injury.

- The Arizona Cardinals have won three-straight games and QB Carson Palmer has tossed six TDs and just two picks during that stretch.

- The fave is 6-1 ATS in the previous seven meetings between the Titans and Raiders. Tennessee is currently a 1-point road fave.

- The top Covers consensus Totals pick is the Over 45 in the matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants (75.60 percent).

- Cowboys WR Dez Bryant hasn't scored a TD in his last four games versus the Giants.

- Tom Brady leads the all-time matchup versus Peyton Manning 9-4 SU and 6-5-2 ATS.

- The Pats have allowed teams to score touchdowns in 70 percent of their trips in the red zone over the last three games.

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 24

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Chargers at Chiefs: What bettors need to know
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San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 42)

With their first loss behind them and another showdown looming next week, the Kansas City Chiefs look to get back to their winning ways when they host the San Diego Chargers on Sunday. The Chiefs suffered their first defeat a week ago, falling 27-17 at Denver, and they have one game to get tuned up for another shot at the Broncos next week. The Chargers are within a game of the last wild-card spot despite losing three straight by a combined 18 points.

A victory isn't critical to the Chiefs' playoff hopes - they're virtually a lock for the postseason - but they're tied with the Broncos for the best record in the AFC and need to bounce back the next two weeks. "Everything we want is still ahead of us," Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith told reporters. "We can't have an emotional letdown off of a big week last week." The Chargers have won 10 of the last 13 meetings including wins by 17 and 18 points last season.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: The Chiefs opened -5 and are now -4. The total is up to 42 from the opening 41.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with wind blowing across the field at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (4-6): San Diego boasts the No. 7 offense (399.4 total yards) and the fourth-best passing game (287.9) as quarterback Philip Rivers has returned to form following two subpar seasons. Rivers leads the league with a 70.9 completion percentage and has completed at least 30 passes to five different receivers. The offense has difficulty keeping pace with one of the league's most porous defenses, though, as the Chargers give up 389 total yards per contest.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (9-1): Kansas City didn't have enough offensive firepower to keep pace with Denver. The Chiefs lean on Jamaal Charles, who leads the team in rushing yards (803) and receptions (49) with a combined eight touchdowns, but they need some other playmakers to step up down the stretch and in the postseason. The defense owns the best turnover margin in the league (plus-15), leads the AFC in scoring defense (13.8) and ranks second in the NFL in sacks (36).

TRENDS:

* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last five games in November.
* Chargers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Under is 6-0 in Chargers last six vs. AFC.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Kansas City coach Andy Reid needs one win to become the 21st NFL coach to win 150 games, including the postseason.

2. Chargers TE Antonio Gates needs two catches and 15 yards to become the fourth tight end in NFL history with at least 700 catches and 9,000 receiving yards.

3. Smith (317) needs 70 rushing yards to surpass Tyler Thigpen for the most in a season by a Chiefs quarterback.


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[jt4545]

Thanks and good luck udog

[Udog]

Thanks and good luck udog

Well, I had Denver, jt. I took them knowing that Brady was 9-4 (now 10-4) against Manning over the years. I was feeling pretty good about things at half-time, too.


It just goes to show that it's rarely a wise move to go against a trend that strong. It took a freaky finish to do it but the trend held up.

Fortunately, I had Saskatchewan in the Grey Cup and the OKC Thunder so it was still a good finish to the day.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 25

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Monday Night Football betting: 49ers at Redskins
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San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (+4.5, 47)

A pair of teams led by underachieving quarterbacks look to avoid a third consecutive loss when the Washington Redskins host the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night. Washington's Robert Griffin III and San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick burst onto the NFL scene a year ago and gave defenses fits but haven't enjoyed the same success this season. The 49ers are on the fringes of the NFC playoff picture, and the Redskins are in last place in the NFC East.

Kaepernick turned in another mediocre outing, statistically-speaking, in a 23-20 loss at New Orleans last week, but 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh doesn't understand the criticism of his quarterback. "I think he's doing a heck of a job," Harbaugh told reporters. "I guess I'd be puzzled to why people would think that. What's most important is what we see." Griffin's numbers also have dropped off as he returns from offseason knee surgery, and he came under fire this week for comments following last week's 24-16 loss at Philadelphia that seemed to deflect blame toward offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and the team's receivers.

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The line opened +4.5 was bet to +6 before being bet back down to +4.5. The Total opened at 49 and has been bet down to 47.

WEATHER: Temperature will be in the mid 30s with a 6 mph wind blowing across the field.

POWER RANKINGS: San Francisco (-5.5) - Washington (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = San Francisco -6.5

ABOUT THE 49ERS (6-4, 7-3 ATS): San Francisco isn't in panic mode yet, as its consecutive losses have come by a combined four points, unlike its clunkers in Weeks 2 and 3. The defense is still one of the best units in the league and has forced two or more turnovers in seven of 10 games. The lack of offensive production is cause for concern, though, with the 49ers averaging 173.5 total yards over the past two games.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (3-7, 3-7 ATS): Griffin's sophomore slump has been somewhat overstated considering Washington leads the league in rushing (155.2 yards per game) and ranks sixth in total offense (412.1). The bigger issue is on defense, as the Redskins rank 28th in total defense (389.9) and 30th in scoring (31.1). Washington has allowed 400 or more yards in six of 10 games including three of the last four.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-0-2 ATS in the last six meetings.
* 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Redskins are 1-7 ATS in their last eight versus the NFC.
* Over is 4-1 in the Redskins in last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. San Francisco has an 8-0 record when Kaepernick starts and has a rating of 100 or better, a mark he has achieved only three times this season.

2. Washington TE Jordan Reed, who leads NFL rookies with 45 catches, is listed as questionable after leaving last week's game with a concussion.

3. Griffin does not have a rushing touchdown and is averaging 5.2 yards per carry after rushing for seven scores and 6.8 yards per attempt last season.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 25

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Tale of the Tape: 49ers at Redskins
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They were applauded for their performances as first-year starters in 2012 - but one year later, Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III find themselves struggling with the sophomore slump.

The two slumping signal-callers face off Monday night when Kaepernick leads his San Francisco 49ers into Maryland to face Griffin's Washington Redskins. San Francisco comes in having lost back-to-back games, while the Redskins are all but out of the playoff picture at 3-7.

Read the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

No team in the NFL has had more trouble moving the ball through the air than San Francisco, which is averaging an anemic 168 passing yards per game. Kaepernick has struggled mightily in the absence of star wide receiver Michael Crabtree, who won't be back against the Redskins but may make his season debut the following week. The 49ers' saving grace has been the run game, which is averaging a robust 141 yards per game and has racked up 15 touchdowns.

Griffin has regressed but is still orchestrating an above-average pass attack, averaging 257 yards per game with 14 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He'll be hard-pressed to match his season averages with the 49ers' staunch defense opposing him and standout tight end Jordan Reed sitting out the contest as he recovers from a concussion. Washington's run game has been elite, averaging a league-best 155.2 yards while scoring 12 touchdowns.

Edge: Washington


Defense

The 49ers continue to be one of the stingiest teams in the league when it comes to pass defense, limiting the opposition to 220 yards per contest with 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. One area that has given San Francisco trouble is the pass rush, where it has registered just 21 sacks totaling 150 yards. The 49ers have allowed just 103.8 rushing yards per game so far this season, with an average of 3.9 yards against per carry and nine scores surrendered.

The Redskins have been victimized all season long by opposing pass attacks, surrendering 275 yards per game through the air with 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Washington has also struggled to generate much of a pass rush, coming into the Monday nighter with 25 sacks for 162 yards. Washington's run defense hasn't been much better, giving up 115 yards per game on 4.3 yards per attempt and allowing 15 touchdowns through the first 10 games.

Edge: San Francisco


Special Teams

San Francisco's return game has struggled for most of the year, averaging just 20.9 yards per kickoff return and seven yards per punt return. The 49ers are a minus in both categories, having surrendered an average of 22.5 yards per kickoff-return attempt ans 7.4 yards per punt-return chance. Veteran placekicker Phil Dawson has connected on 14-of-17 field-goal opportunities in 2013, and hit both attempts - including a 55-yarder - in last week's loss to New Orleans.

Washington hasn't done much in the return department, averaging 20.2 yards per kickoff return and just 5.8 yards on punt returns. It has been stingy with kick returns, allowing just 20.3 yards per attempt, but has been burned for a pair of punt-return touchdowns and is allowing 18 yards per attempt - the second-worst mark in the league. Kicker Kai Forbath has hit just 7-of-11 field-goal attempts this season, and didn't have a single opportunity last week versus Philadelphia.

Edge: San Francisco


Notable Quotable

"It would have been much better to have played these guys earlier in the season than now. This is game 11 and he's 11 weeks improved from where he was in their opener ... So he's getting more and more confident with his knee." - 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio on Griffin and his improving running ability

"I know his receiving corps has been banged up. He's had some guys injured. He hasn't had his number one receiver in Crabtree, Mario Manningham just came back, and so that hurts you, having lost them." - Redskins LB London Fletcher on Kaepernick's struggles


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[Udog]

NFL Week 13 opening line report: Oddsmakers giving thanks

This Thanksgiving, Las Vegas oddsmakers are thankful for a relatively tight set of NFL games on the holiday Thursday.

Outside of the Dallas Cowboys being favored by 9.5 points at home to Oakland, the other two contests should stay within a touchdown, which is good news on a day when the turkey-stuffed public loves to pound the favorite and the Over.

“That’s the way it is anytime you see marquee schedules,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “Everyone will have their separate wagers rolling into each other on Thanksgiving. But this year’s schedule presents a pretty good challenge to bettors.”

The biggest question on everyone’s mind heading into Thursday’s trio of games is the status of Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, who has missed the last three games with a broken collarbone. Korner is advising his clients to keep the game off the board until more is known on Rodgers but says to expect a 7-point swing if the former MVP is ready to go.

“Without (Rodgers), I’d have to say Detroit by a touchdown,” Korner says of Thursday’s early game. “If he’s back, probably around a pick. Detroit was a ‘bet against’ team last week, with early money on Tampa Bay. We’ll see what happens with them with a short week.”

Korner expects the majority of the middle game action to come in strong on Dallas. Most shops are dealing the Cowboys as 9.5-point home favorites but Korner isn’t convinced books will want to go above the key number of 10.

“We’re wary of the Oakland-Dallas game. That’s the trouble game,” says Korner. “Oakland has come down with such a thud last week and Dallas is coming off a big win. All the action with be on Dallas.”

As for the night cap, Korner says books couldn’t be happier to have a rivalry like Pittsburgh-Baltimore split the action. This AFC North grudge match could have a ton of parlay action rolling into it depending on the outcome of the first two games.

“This is the game you want,” he says. “These types of games, anything can happen. The difference is pretty much the home field.”

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+2)

With both of these AFC West powers coming off a loss, bettors have some tough terrain to scale in Week 13. Denver took the first meeting with Kansas City easily two weeks ago but playing in Arrowhead is a completely different scenario.

“These two are meeting again on such short notice that it is coming in around a pick,” says Korner. “There is a revenge factor for Kansas City but certainly the Chiefs need to redefine themselves and this is the game to do it.”


New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-6)

Korner sent out this spread at Seattle -4 but agrees with the move many books have taken to Seahawks -6. New Orleans just hasn’t been the same team away from the Big Easy and heads to the toughest venue in football – CenturyLink Field – where Monday temperatures are expect to be around freezing with a chance of showers.

“That line plays into Seattle, not that the conditions and the home field aren’t noted,” he says. “New Orleans’ last game is going to be on people’s minds – scoring only 17 points on the road in Atlanta – and how different that scoring is between home and the road."




Packers' Rodgers 'slim to none' to play on Thanksgiving

Cheeseheads and Green Bay bettors alike were holding out hope that MVP QB Aaron Rodgers would be able to return to action this Thursday when the Packers head to Detroit to take on the Lions on Thanksgiving.

As reported by Dan Gantt of Pro Football talk, Aaron Rodgers wants to play this week, but Packers coach Mike McCarthy told reporters it would be a 'huge stretch' to think he would be sufficiently recovered from a broken collar bone to play the Lions on Thursday. Rodgers suffered the broken collar bone four weeks ago against Chicago.

McCarthy is leaning towards starting Matt Flynn at QB for the Packers (5-5-1 ATS) against the Lions (6-5 ATS), after solid relief work replacing Scott Tolzien against Minnesota this past Sunday.




Doomed in the dome: Bills struggle in Toronto

The Buffalo Bills make their annual trip north of the border as they 'host' the Atlanta Falcons at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Canada this week.

The date with Atlanta marks the sixth regular season game the Bills will play in the Rogers Centre since 2008.

Despite the game being billed as a home game, Buffalo has had very little success in Toronto.

In the five games in Ontario, the Bills own a 1-4 SU record, 1-3-1 ATS record and 1-4 O/U mark.

The lone Over was the result of the Seattle Seahawks hanging 50 points on the dismal Bills in last season's game.

The Bills are currently 3.5-point favorites and the total is 46.