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**Udog** · 11-21-2013, 08:54 AM

NFL Week 12 opening line report: Manning has more than Brady

Manning vs. Brady treats NFL bettors to football’s version of Frazier vs. Ali in Week 12. However, this time, Frazier (Manning) is swinging a set of cement gloves while Ali (Brady) is throwing around a pair of down pillows.

(We tab Brady as Ali simply because he’s had Manning’s number more often than not and is the more decorated of the two QBs. Please let us know if you have a better sports analogy for this one.)

Oddsmakers have set Brady and the Patriots as 2.5-point underdogs hosting Manning and the Broncos Sunday night, but one Las Vegas oddsmakers doesn’t think the line is high enough given the supporting cast surrounding both star quarterbacks.

“I just don’t think (New England has) the talent to beat Denver,” Peter Korner, founder of Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. Korner says he brought a spread of Denver -3.5 to the table and sent out -3. However, books are dealing this game as low as New England +1.

“It just looks low,” Korner says of the current spread. “The Broncos bring a lot more to the table. Manning didn’t have great success in these big games as a Colt but in Denver he has so much around him. Denver, by far, has the better talent. I don’t think the Pats have enough this year to make it an easy game.”

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+9.5, 53)

This NFC South showdown has been reduced to a dud Thursday nighter, thanks to the Falcons’ fall from grace.

The LVH Superbook in Las Vegas opened this game Atlanta -4 when it released its "Game of the Year" odds back in May – a near two-TD swing when compared to what books are dealing now. Some offshores opened as low as a touchdown but took instant action on the Saints, something Korner believes books should be prepared for.

“Atlanta is not going to get well here,” he says. “New Orleans need this win and it’s just asking for money on the favorite and Over. Atlanta just isn’t the same team it was last year and why would you expect something different? Because it’s not going to be. Why would (books) screw around and hope for something that hasn’t been there all season? Keep the Saints high.”

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

Most markets are waiting on word of Aaron Rodgers’ status for Sunday’s divisional matchup with Minnesota. But it looks like Cheese Heads may have to grind out one more week before Green Bay’s QB is back from a broken collarbone.

“Not much to say. Rodgers doesn’t figure to be back, so Green Bay -4 on this on,” says Korner, who believes the line would jump to -8 or 8.5 is Rodgers is upgraded to probable. “(The Packers) weren’t blowing people away when he was in, but Minnesota just doesn’t have it. They both need this game. These are the best games to book because they’re the hardest games to pick.”

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-2.5, 46.5)

The Giants have risen from the depths of the NFC East and appear to be one of the hottest teams in the conference, winning four in a row after a 0-6 start. Dallas, on the other hand, comes off the bye week which followed an embarrassing loss to New Orleans in Week 10.

“They’re right back in the mix,” Korner says of New York, which he sent out as a 2.5-point home favorite. “The Giants are the ones who are peaking now and money will be on New York. This spread could go up to -3 but I don’t think it’ll go much farther. Dallas has its big following. It’s a much bigger game than it was three weeks ago.”

**Udog** · 11-21-2013, 08:54 AM

NFL line watch: Lookahead looms for Lions vs. Bucs

Spread to bet now

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10) at Detroit Lions

There are a couple of 10's out there, but this line is dropping fast. As of writing, a 10 is still available but for the most part 9.5's, 9's and even a couple of 8.5's predominate. Sharps were quick to jump on the double-digit spread.

The once 0-8 Bucs are off back-to-back victories, scoring a whopping 63 combined points in the process. The Lions are coming off a disappointing 37-27 loss in Pittsburgh in which they scored all of their points in the second quarter and would allow the Steelers to post 17 unanswered in the second half.

With the lowly Buccaneers on deck and a game versus division rival Green Bay next week, this sets up as a classic lookahead spot for the home side Sunday.

Spread to wait on

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals lead the AFC North with a 7-4 record. The Steelers, Browns and defending champion Ravens are all tied at 4-6. To say this is a big game for both teams would be an understatement.

The loser of this divisional contest will be eliminated from contention. This is the first contest between the clubs this season (they play again at Heinz Field on the final week) and the stakes simply couldn't be higher.

Back-to-back victories for the Steelers, in which they've scored a combined 60 points, has the Black and Gold right back in the conversation. Conversely, the up-and-down Browns have lost four of their last five, including last week's disturbing 41-20 effort at Cincinnati.

It appears bettors believe that Pittsburgh has turned a corner, so if you think that Cleveland has something up its sleeve, I'd recommend waiting a little closer to kickoff before getting down with the Browns.

Total to watch

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (56)

This much-anticipated game will be played on a blustery Sunday night in late November in New England. Unlike the U.S. mail service, Denver QB Peyton Manning isn't quite at his best in rain, sleet, snow and hail.

After eclipsing the number in eight straight contests, the Bronco's high-flying offense has slowed down a bit with both games versus the Chargers and Chiefs falling below the posted number. The Patriots' patchwork offense has been a work in progress all season, looking brilliant at times and pretty pedestrian in others.

This total opened at 56 and for the most part that number predominates. However, there are a few 55.5's starting to make an appearance now as well. This is definitely one total to keep our eyes on as the week progresses.

**Udog** · 11-21-2013, 08:54 AM

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Week 12 of the NFL season is shaping up to be one of the most entertaining slates on the schedule. It may also be one of the tough weeks for football bettors to handicap, with six games sitting with 1-point spreads.

We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, about the biggest midweek adjustments to the NFL Week 12 odds as Sunday draws closer:

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers – Open: -3, Move: -4.5

Early injury news on Vikings RB Adrian Peterson had books keeping a close eye on this NFC North matchup. Even with Peterson upgraded to probable and the Packers rolling with backup QB Scott Tolzien under center, the sharp money pushed this spread past the key number and as high as Green Bay -4.5

“Bottom line, we opened this game way too short in my opinion, as both the public and sharps hammered us at the lower number of three,” Stewart tells Covers. “But since going to Packers -4.5 we've seen steady two-way action. With the news that Peterson has been upgraded to probable, we'll see some support on the Vikings at some point on this game.”

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions – Open: -9.5, Move -8.5

Tampa Bay is winning over bettors with back-to-back wins, including a blowout over Atlanta last weekend. That’s dropped this spread a full point as of Wednesday with both sharp and public money buying the Bucs against an inconsistent Detroit side.

“We saw more action supporting the Bucs in this game, which came as a surprise to us as for most of the season this has been a bet against team for our bettors and more times than not (the Lions have) been getting the money,” says Stewart. “So with sharp action on the dog and the public also supporting the dog, we're down to Lions -8.5 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this number drop even further.”

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins – Open: +4.5, Move +6

This spread has moved with the early money all siding with the road favorite Monday night. According to Stewart, moves past -5 and -5.5 “couldn’t stop the bleeding” and, as of Wednesday, 85 percent of the action is on San Francisco. With the assumption that the public would continue to back the chalk for the primetime game, the books bumped the spread to Niners -6.

“We're already very exposed on this game and its only Wednesday,” he says. “Come Monday, if our liability is extreme then -6.5 isn't out of the question. I just think that's a ridiculous amount of points considering the situation for the 49ers - off two very physical games and now playing back-to-back road games and having to travel all the way back East. No question it's a tough spot for the 49ers.

**Udog** · 11-21-2013, 08:55 AM

NFL Top 3: NFC long shots with a fighting chance

The NFC playoff picture is looking messier the turf at Soldier Field.

With several teams still in contention heading into the final six weeks of the season, every game becomes especially pivotal. And while roster composition and health will go a long way in deciding who gets in and who doesn't, the biggest deciding factor could be strength of schedule - particularly where dark-horse teams are concerned.

Here are three teams on the periphery of the playoff race that could rally late in the season (Super Bowl odds courtesy TopBet.eu):

New York Giants (+2,500)

The Giants' odds to win it all have dropped dramatically since Eli Manning and Co. opened the campaign with six consecutive losses. A four-game winning streak hasn't exactly made New York a Super Bowl favorite, but with the NFC East in shambles and the Giants just a game and a half back of division-leading Philadelphia, hope remains alive. Winning back-to-back division games against Dallas and Washington, and surviving a visit from Seattle, are critical, but with Manning playing better and the defense looking strong, the Giants have a shot.

Green Bay Packers (+4,000)

The Packers have gone into a tailspin, losing three consecutive games as they've struggled to make do without injured quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay was the top team in the NFC North before he broke his collarbone and there's no reason to think they can't be when he returns. Green Bay has several winnable games remaining - Minnesota, Atlanta and Pittsburgh among them - and a healthy Rogers should have little trouble generating plenty of offense against weak pass defenses in Detroit and Dallas.

Arizona Cardinals (+10,000)

Few suspected the Cardinals would find themselves in position to challenge for a wildcard berth this late into the season. But here they are, tied with San Francisco for second spot in the NFC West. With the Seattle Seahawks a good bet to win the division title, the Cardinals and 49ers will likely duke it out for the chance to secure one of two wildcard spots. Arizona has a difficult closing stretch, finishing up with games against the Seahawks and Niners. But with four winnable games leading into that (vs. Indianapolis, at Philadelphia, vs. St. Louis, at Tennessee), the Cardinals could surprise.

**Udog** · 11-21-2013, 08:55 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 12

New Orleans at Atlanta
The Saints look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 5 games against the Falcons. New Orleans is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Saints favored by 16. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-9). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 21

Game 107-108: New Orleans at Atlanta (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 140.250; Atlanta 124.251
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 16; 57
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 9; 53
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-9); Over

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 24

Game 209-210: Tampa Bay at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 128.582; Detroit 135.111
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 6 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Detroit by 9 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+9 1/2); Under

Game 211-212: Jacksonville at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 119.849; Houston 126.937
Dunkel Line: Houston by 7; 48
Vegas Line: Houston by 10; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+10); Over

Game 213-214: Minnesota at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 122.954; Green Bay 136.887
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 14; 40
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 4 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-4 1/2); Under

Game 215-216: San Diego at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 129.549; Kansas City 139.034
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 9 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 4 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-4 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Carolina at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 138.175; Miami 136.625
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Carolina by 4 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+4 1/2); Over

Game 219-220: Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 126.408; Cleveland 133.629
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 7; 44
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 1; 40
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-1); Over

Game 221-222: Chicago at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 134.228; St. Louis 130.116
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4; 41
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+2); Under

Game 223-224: NY Jets at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 129.784; Baltimore 130.646
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 4; 39
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+4); Over

Game 225-226: Tennessee at Oakland (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 125.678; Oakland 128.715
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3; 37
Vegas Line: Oakland by 1; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-1); Under

Game 227-228: Indianapolis at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 136.034; Arizona 135.246
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 41
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+2 1/2); Under

Game 229-230: Dallas at NY Giants (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 130.833; NY Giants 134.716
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4; 52
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-2 1/2); Over

Game 231-232: Denver at New England (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 140.509; New England 141.251
Dunkel Line: New England by 1; 60
Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 54
Dunkel Pick: New England (+3); Over

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 25

Game 233-234: San Francisco at Washington (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 140.796; Washington 129.253
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 11 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 5 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-5 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 11-21-2013, 08:55 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Thursday, November 21

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NEW ORLEANS (8 - 2) at ATLANTA (2 - 8) - 11/21/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
ATLANTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 24

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 8) at DETROIT (6 - 4) - 11/24/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 22-41 ATS (-23.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 33-55 ATS (-27.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 30-50 ATS (-25.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 9) at HOUSTON (2 - 8) - 11/24/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
HOUSTON is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
HOUSTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
HOUSTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (2 - 8) at GREEN BAY (5 - 5) - 11/24/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 154-111 ATS (+31.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 5-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (4 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (9 - 1) - 11/24/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (7 - 3) at MIAMI (5 - 5) - 11/24/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (4 - 6) at CLEVELAND (4 - 6) - 11/24/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (6 - 4) at ST LOUIS (4 - 6) - 11/24/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 66-93 ATS (-36.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 95-131 ATS (-49.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (5 - 5) at BALTIMORE (4 - 6) - 11/24/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (4 - 6) at OAKLAND (4 - 6) - 11/24/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 37-68 ATS (-37.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 33-67 ATS (-40.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 3) at ARIZONA (6 - 4) - 11/24/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (5 - 5) at NY GIANTS (4 - 6) - 11/24/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 30-54 ATS (-29.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 28-50 ATS (-27.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (9 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (7 - 3) - 11/24/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 79-46 ATS (+28.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 156-117 ATS (+27.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against AFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 66-43 ATS (+18.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
DENVER is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 25

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SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 4) at WASHINGTON (3 - 7) - 11/25/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 27-9 ATS (+17.1 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 11-21-2013, 08:56 AM

NFL

Week 12

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 21

8:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ATLANTA
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games at home
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against New Orleans

Sunday, November 24

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Minnesota is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. HOUSTON
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. KANSAS CITY
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Diego
Kansas City is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against San Diego

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games on the road
NY Jets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Baltimore is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games at home

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chicago's last 12 games
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 9 games when playing Chicago
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. DETROIT
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games

4:05 PM
TENNESSEE vs. OAKLAND
Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Tennessee

4:05 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. ARIZONA
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games

4:25 PM
DALLAS vs. NY GIANTS
Dallas is 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games when playing NY Giants
Dallas is 3-6 SU in their last 9 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 7 of the NY Giants last 9 games when playing Dallas

8:30 PM
DENVER vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Denver's last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Denver's last 15 games when playing New England
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games at home

Monday, November 25

8:40 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. WASHINGTON
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Washington is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing San Francisco

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**Udog** · 11-21-2013, 08:57 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Thursday's game

Saints (8-2) @ Falcons (2-8)—Normally you’d look at this as trap game with Saints in between games with NFC powers 49ers/Seattle, but Atlanta is Saints’ biggest rival; they’ve beaten Falcons seven of last eight games, nipping them 23-17 (-3) in season opener when Atlanta couldn’t score in last minute from inside Saints’ 10-yard line. Can’t look at any Falcon trends this year, they’ve been so bad past trends don’t matter; Atlanta lost last four games and seven of last eight- they were outscored 47-9 in first half of last two games and appear disinterested. Saints are only 2-2 on road, with wins by 2-8 points, but those games were outdoors; this is controlled climate of dome- NO is scoring 33 ppg in domes this year, 22.3 outdoors- they won five of last seven visits to Peachtree Street, and won five of six second matches with Atlanta when they won first meeting that season. Saints have nine TDs on last 11 red zone drives; Falcons have four TDs on last eight. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 9-8-1 vs spread. Seven of last nine Atlanta games, four of last five Saint games went over the total.

NFL

Thursday, November 21

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Saints at Falcons: What bettors need to know
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New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+10, 53)

The New Orleans Saints are riding high after another comeback victory, and they hope to continue that momentum as they travel to Atlanta to face the struggling Falcons on Thursday. The Saints booted three fourth-quarter field goals to edge San Francisco 23-20 on Sunday and maintain their NFC South lead. They might not need a late rally against the Falcons - the Saints have won five of the last six meetings and 12 of the last 15, including a 23-17 home victory in Week 1.

The Falcons have lost four straight for the first time since 2007 - also the last time they finished with a losing record - but coach Mike Smith and general manager Thomas Dimitroff received a vote of confidence from owner Arthur Blank after Sunday's 41-28 loss to Tampa Bay. "It's a tough business. We've had a lot of injuries, and issues on top of the injuries," Blank told reporters. "These guys are proven leaders and proven by success. … They'll do the work that has to be done with my full support." A win over the Saints would go a long way in backing up that faith, but that's a long shot against a New Orleans team that ranks in the top five in the NFL in total yards and scoring on both sides of the ball.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The line opened with the Falcons as +7 home dogs and have been bet to +10. The total has been steady at 53.

WEATHER: N/A

POWER RANKINGS: New Orleans (-6.0) + Atlanta (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = New Orleans -8.5

ABOUT THE SAINTS (8-2, 6-4 ATS): New Orleans might be the most complete team in the league with Drew Brees directing the potent pass-heavy attack and
defensive coordinator Rob Ryan's revamped unit continuing to play well. Injuries are mounting on the defensive side, though, with cornerback Jabari Greer suffering a gruesome knee injury Sunday and rookie safety Kenny Vaccaro still questionable after missing the past two games. The Saints are far more susceptible on the road, where they've lost to New England and the New York Jets and survived close contests at Tampa Bay and Chicago.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (2-8, 2-8 ATS): Atlanta's defense was shredded by a rookie quarterback and a running back making his first NFL start versus Tampa Bay, so the Falcons might be in big trouble against Brees and the Saints' high-powered attack. The offense has been far too one-dimensional, ranking 31st at 73.1 rushing yards per game, which doesn't bode well against the Saints' third-ranked pass defense. Atlanta's defense is getting closer to full strength with linebacker Sean Weatherspoon back, but the unit continues to struggle and has allowed more than 400 total yards in two straight games.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Atlanta.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brees (49,288) needs 38 passing yards to move past Warren Moon for fifth in NFL history. John Elway is fourth at 51,475.

2. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan's 14 interceptions match his career high set in 2009 and tied last season, and his 89.2 rating is his lowest since an 80.9 mark in 2009.

3. The Falcons are the only team since 2009 to hold Brees without a touchdown pass, as he threw five interceptions without a TD in a 23-13 loss at Atlanta last season

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NFL

Thursday, November 21

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Tale of the Tape: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
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The New Orleans Saints look to add to the misery of a division rival as they face the host Atlanta Falcons in the Week 12 Thursday nighter.

New Orleans has reeled off back-to-back victories to remain one game ahead of the hard-charging Carolina Panthers in the NFC South. The Falcons are immersed in their own position battle - specifically, looking to stay out of the division basement as they bring a six-game losing streak into this one.

Read the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Saints continue rolling along on the offensive side of the football, sitting third in total yards (4,191) on the strength of a passing game that ranks behind only the Denver Broncos in terms of efficiency. Quarterback Drew Brees is on pace for his fourth career 5,000-yard passing campaign, with 26 touchdown throws against just eight interceptions. The rushing game hasn't been nearly as effective, ranked 23rd in the NFL at 97.2 yards per game with just seven TDs.

Atlanta was built to compete offensively with a team like the Saints, but injuries have limited its ability to do that in 2013. Quarterback Matt Ryan has had to do without top receivers Julio Jones (foot, out for season) and Roddy White (hamstring) for major chunks of the season, resulting in the Atlanta passing offense ranking eighth in total yards after going into the year as a consensus top-3 unit. The running game is dreadful, recording the second-fewest yards in the NFL.

Edge: New Orleans

Defense

New Orleans hasn't traditionally been equated with shut-down defense, but times have changed. New Orleans comes into Thursday's game having allowed the second-fewest passing yards in football (1,914) - behind only the Houston Texans - and its 11 passing touchdowns against is tied for the fourth-fewest in the league. New Orleans is allowing 4.9 yards per carry, but has faced just 234 attempts - third-fewest in the NFL - as teams try to keep up with its pass offense.

The Falcons' punchless offense isn't doing its defensive unit any favors. Atlanta ranks 21st in passing yards against (2,492) with 21 touchdowns against - third-most in football - and just six interceptions. Teams have also run at will against the Falcons, racking up the third most opponent yards in the league (1,327) while scoring eight touchdowns; the Falcons are the only team in football ranked 30th or lower in both offensive and defensive rushing yardage per game.

Edge: New Orleans

Special Teams

The Saints have fared well on kick returns so far in 2013, averaging the ninth-best rate in the league (24.5 yards); things haven't been as good on punt returns, where they're just 30th (6.4). New Orleans is allowing the sixth-highest kick-return average (25.2) but has limited opponents to 6.7 yards per punt-return attempt. Kicker Garrett Hartley had made just two of his previous six field-goal attempts entering Week 11, but went 3-for-3 in the win over San Francisco.

Atlanta's kick-return game has been solid, as it's averaging 24.3 yards per attempt - one spot behind New Orleans in the rankings. It sits 24th in punt-return average (7.3). Opponents have had virtually identical numbers against the Falcons, averaging 24.1 yards per kick-return attempt and 7.6 yards per punt-return try. Kicker Matt Bryant has been as good as they come this season, connecting on 13-of-14 field goal attempts - including two in last week's loss to Tampa Bay.

Edge: Atlanta

Notable Quotable

"We're equal-opportunity. Whoever's getting open, whoever's got the matchup, whoever's got the hot hand. We kind of feel that and see that as the game is going on. Guys kind of know that if it's not this week or next week, it might be the following week." - Brees

"There's times when it's going to be humbling. You learn from everything, the good the bad - and sometimes more from the bad than the good. I think everybody's trying to learn from it, apply it to themselves, find ways to get better, find ways to use it as motivation and just keep going forward." - Ryan

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**Udog** · 11-21-2013, 02:05 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 12

Thursday, November 21

New Orleans at Atlanta, 8:25 ET
New Orleans: 22-11 ATS as a favorite
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS as an underdog

Sun, Nov. 24

Tampa Bay at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 6-0 ATS in November games
Detroit: 0-6 ATS off a non-conference game

Jacksonville at Houston, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 1-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Houston: 21-8 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

Minnesota at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 8-2 OVER in all games
Green Bay: 15-6 ATS as a home favorite

San Diego at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 14-5 OVER off 1 or more consecutive unders
Kansas City: 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Carolina at Miami, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 6-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins
Miami: 20-38 ATS off a upset win as an underdog

Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 6-15 ATS in road games
Cleveland: 25-8 UNDER as a home favorite of 3 points or less

Chicago at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 2-9 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3
St Louis: 12-4 OVER in dome games

New York at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
New York: 0-6 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite
Baltimore: 24-11 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

Tennessee at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Tennessee: 9-21 ATS against AFC West division opponents
Oakland: 16-32 ATS off a upset win as an underdog

Indianapolis at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Indianapolis: 9-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Arizona: 3-13 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins

Dallas at NY Giants, 4:25 ET
Dallas: 30-15 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points
NY Giants: 6-0 UNDER after a win by 14 or more points

Denver at New England, 8:30 ET
Denver: 8-2 OVER as a favorite
New England: 20-8 ATS as a home underdog

Mon, Nov. 25

San Francisco at Washington, 8:40 ET
San Francisco: 27-9 ATS when playing on Monday night
Washington: 26-47 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse

**Udog** · 11-22-2013, 09:42 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Buccaneers (2-8) @ Lions (6-4)—Tampa Bay is playing better, taking leads of 21-0/15-0/24-6 in first half of last three games; they’ve run ball for 177 yards/game last three weeks, but are still winless on road (1-2 as road underdog), losing away games by 1-20-8-3 points. Lion offense seems totally dependent on Calvin Johnson running amuck; Stafford had 369 passing yards in first three quarters last week at Pitt, but was 0-10 in 4th quarter as 27-20 halftime lead became a 37-27 loss. Detroit is 2-2 as home favorites, losing to Bengals, winning other three games by 10-1-8 points. Bucs’ DL McCoy asked coaches for less stunts and has rushed passer better since; Bucs have five sacks in last two games, after having five in previous five games. Detroit won three of last four series games; but Bucs won four of last five visits here, in what used to be a division rivalry- their last visit here was in ’08. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-10-2 vs spread, 2-6-2 at home. NFC South road underdogs are 4-4. Over is 5-0-1 in Bucs’ last six games, 4-1 in last five Detroit games, 4-0 in Lion home tilts.

Jaguars (1-9) @ Texans (2-8)—Good grief, Houston is double digit favorite; they haven’t won since there were two weeks left in baseball season, losing last eight games, and they were favored in three of the eight. Texans are 0-5 vs spread when favored this year, 1-8-1 vs spread overall. Keenum is expected to start again after they pulled him vs Oakland last week; its fairly clear he is better option than Schaub, but Houston has been outscored 51-16 in second half of last three games- maybe Kubiak was looking for a spark. Jaguars are 2-8 vs spread, and they were underdog in all ten- they covered last two road games, winning at Tennessee, but lost other four away games by 10-28-16-14 points (2-3 as road dog). Texans won last five series games by average score of 30-18; Jags are 3-8 in Reliant, losing last three visits here, by 17-10-6 points. Home teams are 0-4-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games; NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 22-10 vs spread. Five of last six Jaguar games, four of last five Houston games went over the total.

Vikings (2-8) @ Packers (5-5)—Minnesota scored 20+ points in its last four games, but lost three of them, allowing 34.8 ppg; Vikings are 2-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 10-1-16-4-21 points- they only have two takeaways (-10) in last six games, but Green Bay lost last three games with Rodgers hurt, scoring four TDs on last 32 drives. Expect Pack to pound ball here with Lacy vs Minnesota defense that 182 yards in first meeting, a 44-31 Packer win (-8) four weeks ago that is Green Bay’s last win. Pack was 13-18 on 3rd down at Metrodome; in three games since, they’re 10-33, as there is obviously huge dropoff with Rodgers hurt. In last two games, Green Bay dropped back to pass 79 times, ran ball 50, as opponents stack box against run. Tolzien has been decent (6.6/10.0 ypa last two games) but five INTs doomed him. Minnesota lost seven of last eight series games, dropping last four visits here by 4-38-9-14 points. Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in NFC North divisional games. Nine of ten Minnesota games went over total; six of last seven Packer games stayed under.

Chargers (4-6) @ Chiefs (9-1)- Curious to see how KC bounces back after good effort Sunday night in first loss of year at Denver, especially with rematch on tap next week; Chiefs are 2-3 as home favorites this year, winning at Arrowhead by 1-24-17-1-6 points. San Diego won nine of last 11 series games, going 3-2 in last five visits here; they’re making sixth trip east of Mississippi this year, third in last four weeks- they’re 1-1-1 as road dogs (were favored in three of last four away games), 2-4 on foreign soil, losing by 3-10-6-4 points. In their last five games, Bolts have eight TDs, nine FGs on 20 drives into red zone (4.15/ppp, not good)- they had ball inside 10-yard line in last minute twice in last three games, couldn’t score either time. Kansas City has held field position edge in every game this year except Week 5 at Tennessee, and that game was even- they’ve started 46 drives 80+ yards from goal line- their opponents have started 81. Home teams/favorites are 4-1 vs spread in AFC West divisional games. Eight of ten KC games, four of last five Charger games stayed under the total.

Jets (5-5) @ Ravens (4-6)—Defending champs split pair of OT games last two weeks, losing 5-hour, weather-delayed game in Chicago last week, after giving up Hail Mary on last play of regulation the week before; Ravens lost four of last five games overall- their last seven were all decided by six or less points. Baltimore is 3-1 at home, 2-0 as home favorite, with only loss 19-17 to Packers. Jets are first-ever NFL team to alternate W-L for first 10 games of a season; they’ve lost seven of eight games with Baltimore, with five of seven losses by 7+ points- they lost all four visits here, by 14-10-7-17 points. Jets are +1 in turnovers in their five wins, -15 in five losses. Ravens have only seven takeaways (-3) in their last six games. Ed Reed helped Ravens win Super Bowl, then got let go; he played 88% of snaps in his first game for Jets last week in Buffalo, has to know lot about this Raven offense. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC East road underdogs are 2-8. Seven of last eight Jet games went over total; all four Raven home games stayed under.

Panthers (7-3) @ Dolphins (5-5)—Trap game for Carolina, travelling on short work week after emotional win late Monday night; Panthers won/covered last six games, but last two wins were by total of five points over 49ers/Patriots, so letdown possible here. They’re 3-2 on road, winning last three away games by 25-1-18 points, after losing first two at Buffalo/Arizona. Miami upset the Chargers 20-16 last week, allowing two TDs/FG on six San Diego drives into red zone; 5-5 Fish still have shot at playoffs- they ran ball for 104 yards last week with three starting OL out, after having 2 rushing yards in loss to Bucs week before. Carolina has allowed one first half TD this year, outscoring foes 113-45 before halftime- they outscored last four opponents 54-24 in second half, too. Dolphins won all four series games, three by seven or less points; Panthers lost 23-6/27-24 in two visits here, but last one was in ’05. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 7-6-1 this year, but 0-4 on road; AFC East underdogs are 8-10, but 6-2 at home. Under is 3-0-1 in Dolphins’ last four games.

Steelers (4-6) @ Browns (4-6)—Home teams are 7-0 SU/ATS in AFC North divisional games this season. Pitt won 17 of last 19 series games, but split last four visits here, after winning nine of first ten visits to face new Browns. Pittsburgh is 6-15 vs spread in its last 21 road games, but they won last two games, scoring 23-37 points (six TDs/23 drives) to get back in divisional race, should Bengals falter. Steelers are 4-2 since they fell to 0-4 with loss in London; they shut Lions out in second half last week- Stafford was 0-10 in 4th quarter, after throwing for 369 yards in first three quarters. Browns won three of last four home games but lost four of last five games overall; they gave up five TDs last week- one by defense, one by punt team, other three on drives of 22-38-52 yards. Cleveland cannot turn ball over four times and win, seeing as they’re 31st in league at driving long field (0.90 ppp on drives starting 80+ yards from goal line). Steeler offense scored 10 TDs in last three games, after scoring 11 in first seven. Average total in last four series games, 26.8. Five of last six Cleveland games went over the total.

Bears (6-4) @ Rams (4-6)—Chicago pulled out OT game vs Ravens last week when it trailed 10-0 early before 2-hour weather delay; backup QB McCown has arguably been better than starter Cutler- they’ve struggled in red zone (two TD/five FGs on 8 trips) in last two games. St Louis scored on defense/special teams in surprising rout of Colts in Indy before their bye; Rams are 2-3 at home, losing last two to Seattle/Titans with backup QB Clemens under center, scoring four TDs on 23 drives, coming close in both games but breaking down when it mattered most. Rams are 4-0 when they score 27+ points, 0-6 when they do not; they’ve scored four non-offensive TDs in their last two wins. Bears are 2-2 on road, scoring 35 ppg, scoring 13 TDs on 48 drives. Would expect lot of Bear fans to make trip for this game. NFC West NFC West non-divisional home teams are 8-5-1 vs spread; NFC North road teams are 4-9. Over is 7-3 in Chicago games, 6-1 in last seven Ram games; only one of four Bear games that didn’t go over was when Rodgers got hurt on first drive of MNF game.

Cowboys (5-5) @ Giants (4-6)—Dallas scored two defensive TDs in 36-31 (-3.5) Week 1 home win over Giants, with only one TD drive longer than 16 yards; Pokes are 4-3 in last seven visits to Swamp, but with star LB Lee (hamstring) said to be still out, Giant offense that had 428 passing yards in season opener figures to have big day if weather breaks right. Big Blue won last four games after its 0-6 start, allowing 11.8 ppg, albeit two of games were vs 3rd-string QBs Freeman/ Tolzien (they also shut Foles down). Giants allowed TD on defense/special teams in four of last five games, but they’ve won last three at home, by 16-4-14 points. Dallas is 4-1 vs spread as dog this year; only non-cover was pre-bye debacle in Superdome, when Cowboys had ton of injuries and got steamrolled by Saint squad coming off bad loss. Last week was first time this year Giants scored on first drive of second half (31 plays, 44 yards, 3 points, 2 turnovers). NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 22-10 vs spread. Five of last seven Dallas games went over the total; three of last four Giant games stayed under.

Titans (4-6) @ Raiders (4-6)—Two teams going in wrong direction and with backup QBs. McGloin won his first NFL start, though Houston turnovers set up first two Raider TDs for 16-yard scoring drives; still he won, now he’s the starter for team that is 3-2 at home, but 0-3 vs spread this season in game following a win, losing by 16-17-29 points. Oakland gave up special teams TD two weeks in row, but in last four games, they’ve run ball for 169.8 ypg, which is good but figures to go down some with mobile QB Pryor on bench. Titans lost at home to Jaguars last week, their fifth loss in six games- they signed Fordham alum Skelton to back Fitzpatrick up this week, another red flag. Titans are -6 in turnovers last six games, after being +9 during their 3-1 start; they won last two series meetings 13-9/38-13; they’ve lost six of last seven visits here, but haven’t been here since 2004. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-10-1 vs spread, 5-4-1 on road. AFC West favorites are 10-8, 5-5 at home. Last four Tennessee games, last three Raider games went over the total.

Colts (7-3) @ Cardinals (6-4)—Arizona coach Arians got this job because of work he did as Indy’s interim coach LY, when Colts’ coach Pagano was ill; he knows lot about Indy offense, figures to have an advantage here against Colt squad that was outscored 66-9 in first half of last three games, but rallied to win two of them. Indy is 4-1 on road, with only loss at San Diego; they won last two away games by FG each. Arizona showed they’re contender by winning last three games vs stiffs, scoring 27 points in all three games; they averaged 7+ yards per pass attempt in all three games, are 4-1 at home, with only loss to Seattle. Cardinals are 6-0 when they allow less than 27 points; they allowed 31 ppg in four losses. Indy won last four series games by average score of 21-12; last time they lost to Redbirds was 1990- they split two visits to desert. NFC West non-divisional home teams are 8-5-1 against the spread; AFC South road teams are 6-6-1. Last four Colt games, four of last five Arizona games went over the total.

Broncos (9-1) @ Patriots (7-3)—Obviously this is a marquee game, but remember that Denver/KC are tied for AFC West lead, play again next week in Arrowhead and that’s the more important game for Broncos, who scored 28-27 points in two post-bye games, after scoring 33+ in first eight. Key variable here is health of Manning’s ankle and how well they protect him. Last week, Chiefs didn’t sack him and Broncos ran ball 36 times, passed 40, more balance than usual. Welker (concussion) didn’t practice Wednesday; would be shocking if he sat this game out. Broncos are 3-1 on road, scoring 38 ppg; they’re 7-3 vs spread, 2-2 on road. Patriots on short week after losing in last 2:00 at Carolina Monday night; they’ve allowed 24+ points in four of last five games, but are 5-0 at home, allowing 22 ppg. NE won last three series games; Broncos lost last three visits here, by average score of 39-13. AFC West favorites are 10-8 against the spread, 5-3 on road; AFC East home underdogs are 7-2. Last two Denver games stayed under the total, after first eight went over; three of last four Patriot games went over.

49ers (6-4) @ Redskins (3-7)—You get idea RGIII annoyed some teammates last week with comments that inferred Redskin coaches were getting outprepared by opponents; team that is falling out of contention at this time of year is a bad investment, and if they start sniping at each other, its lot worse. Redskins are 3-2 when they score 24+ points, 0-5 when they don’t; they’ve lost three of last four games, with only win in OT over Chargers, and are 2-2 at home. Niners lost last two games; they’ve been held to single digits in three of four losses; Redskins allowed 24+ points in their last six games. SF ran ball for 149+ yards in its last five wins, 115 or less in all four of its losses. Washington allowed 7+ yards/pass attempt in each of last five games, which is poor, but can Kaepernick (5.9/3.4 last two weeks) exploit that weakness? 49ers are 10-3 in last 13 series games, winning four of last five played here. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 11-5-1 vs spread, 5-1 on road; NFC East underdogs are 5-6, 1-1 at home. Four of last five Washington games went over the total.

**Udog** · 11-22-2013, 09:44 AM

NFL Betting Week 12 preview: Hot bets and moving odds

All odds current as of noon ET, Nov. 21

We knew it was coming, but seeing the New England Patriots set as home underdogs still looks strange on the Week 12 odds board. Tom Brady’s crew hasn’t been pegged as a pup at Gillette Stadium since way back in 2005 when – you guessed it – Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts were in town. The Colts cruised to a 40-21 win in that one.

This week Peyton and the Broncos opened as 2.5-point favorites, coming off a statement win over the then-unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs. Right now, the Broncos are +344 to win the Super Bowl, second only to the Seattle Seahawks at +330. New England sits at +900.

But if there’s one team that knows how to get under Peyton Manning’s skin, it’s the Pats. In 13 meetings between Manning and Brady, Tom has won nine of those. On Thursday morning our line shifted to New England +2 with about 60 percent of our action coming in on the Patriots. The total has dropped from 56 to 54.5, but we’re still seeing nothing but over money as of Thursday.

Other odds on the move

The New Orleans Saints opened as 7.5-point favorites in a divisional road game at Atlanta earlier this week. That line didn’t last long with all of Atlanta’s injuries. The Saints are now up to -10 with 84 percent of our bettors still supporting the Saints.

The 49ers and Redskins collide for a Week 12 matchup that has plenty of playoff implications. Washington, coming off two straight losses, opened as a 4.5-point underdog and now sits at +5.5. San Francisco has covered in six of its last seven games.

St. Louis hammered Indianapolis in Week 10 and then went on its bye. The Rams opened as a Pick ‘em at home to the banged-up Chicago Bears and have moved to 1-point favorites as they look to improve to 5-6 on the year.

The last time Dallas and the New York Giants got together, the Cowboys won in a shootout. This time, the total opened at 46.5 but has already dropped to 44.5.

Week 12’s most popular bets

Sports Interaction bettors are all over a number of road teams in Week 12:

Following Pittsburgh’s big win over Detroit last week, about 80 percent of our bets are coming in on the Steelers as they head to Cleveland as 2-point underdogs. Meanwhile, 87 percent of our handle is on the Carolina Panthers as 4-point favorites at Miami. That’s the most popular bet on the board as of Thursday.

**Udog** · 11-22-2013, 09:49 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 12

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-1, 40)

Steelers’ new up-tempo attack vs. Browns' crumbling defense

The squeaky wheel gets the grease and Ben Roethlisberger’s bitching and moaning has Pittsburgh’s scoring attack working like a well-oiled machine under the no-huddle offense. Roethlisberger ran 73 plays in last week’s 37-27 win over Detroit and has the Steelers averaging 71 plays per game over their last three. That’s a huge change in tempo compared to their season pace of 64.8. Over those three games, Pittsburgh has scored an average of more than 30 points with Big Ben tossing a total of nine TDs.

Cleveland was leaning hard on its defense to keep it competitive in the AFC North but the wheels are falling off that bus. The Browns, who have the fourth-best passing defense in the NFL, have been burned for 14 passing touchdowns in their last five contests, including three in last week’s blowout loss to Cincinnati. They take on a familiar foe in Roethlisberger, who is 15-1 SU versus Cleveland for his career.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-10, 43.5)

Jaguars’ special teams vs. Texans’ not-so special teams

For all the things the Jaguars do wrong, they continue to do right on special teams. According to Yahoo!Sports, Jacksonville ranks among the Top 9 in 13 different special teams statistics including ranking tops in the NFL in percentage of kick returns for 20 or more yards - 87.1 percent. Jordan Todman has emerged as a return threat, averaging 28.3 yards per kickoff return – fifth in the league. On top of that, punter Bryan Anger is handling his business when booting the ball away.

Special teams have been an issue for the Texans for a long time and it doesn’t seem to be correcting itself this season. Houston is giving up 26.2 yards per kickoff return – third most in the NFL – and 13.4 yards per punt return – tied for fourth most. Ten points is a lot to cover when you constantly keep giving up great field position to opponents.

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (-1, 45)

Colts’ playbook vs. Cardinals’ head coach Bruce Arians

Remember the Colts’ “Chuck Strong” postseason push last season when head coach Chuck Pagano left to receive treatment for leukemia? Arians was the man at the helm of that inspirational story, guiding a young Indianapolis team to a 9-3 record and earning a head coaching gig of his own because of it. Arians has made magic in the desert, turning the Cardinals into dark horse contenders at 6-4, and has his club on a three-game winning streak heading into Sunday.

Arians has detailed knowledge of the Colts and their star QB Andrew Luck. Luck has looked lost since WR Reggie Wayne went down with an injury, completing just 56.25 percent of his passes in that span. Indianapolis has squeaked out two wins by three points (vs. Houston and Tennessee) and lost a lopsided decision to St. Louis in its last three games. As much as Arians loves the Colts, he won’t hesitate to expose their biggest weaknesses Sunday.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+1, 54)

Broncos’ running game vs. Patriots’ poor run stop

All the attention is on Peyton Manning and Tom Brady Sunday night but the Broncos may not have to put the ball in the hands of their future HOF quarterback to beat the Patriots in Week 12. Denver’s rushing game has slowly gained traction in recent weeks, including a 104-yard, two-TD effort versus Kansas City last week. Rookie Montee Ball could be finding his footing after a ton of preseason hype and Knowshon Moreno continues to pick up good gains when he gets the call.

New England is dealing with numerous injuries in their secondary and will call upon linebackers to help slow down Manning’s dink-and-dump no-huddle attack Sunday night. That will open up plenty of room for Denver’s downfield runners. The Patriots have been bowled over by opposing running attacks this season, allowing 125.7 yards on the ground per game – 27th in the league. Those woes could be especially costly in the red zone, where New England has allowed opponents to score TDs in 70 percent of their trips inside the 20-yard line over the last three games.

**Whipster** · 11-22-2013, 11:44 AM

Thanks for the info ...

**Udog** · 11-22-2013, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by Whipster View Post

Thanks for the info ...

NP, Whip! I hope it helps a little.

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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (Thursday, November 21 - Monday, November 25)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (Thursday, November 21 - Monday, November 25)

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