NFL week 12

[roccodean]

10-2 last 3 weeks..lets keep it going

based on 1-5*

1* ATL --probably 2* upgrade

waiting to see if can get 10

2* Arizona

will play at -2.5 or better...waiting to see if can get better line

1* NE +3 (sportsbook)

[roccodean]

Upgrading ATL to 2* at +10 (widely available now)

Atlanta is a bad team and I have made money betting against them, but finally the market has over adjusted. My calc line is NO -6.5 here, so the fact that we are getting double digits is a steal! All double digit home dogs are hard to bet because they are significantly worst than their opponent (13 points+ worse on a neutral field), but they are profitable long term in the NFL. Blindly betting double digit home dogs in the NFL has netted you a 58% ATS profit. I have tons of great trends on ATL, including a 47-17 ATS trend going against double digit road favs off win (and 2 other factors). The Saints are one of the top teams in the league, but their Achille's heel is their run game. They are dead last in YPR defense allowing a whopping 4.9 YPR. They also only average 3.9 YPR (23rd in NFL). The Saints are in a tough schedule spot as they are off a tough game versus SF and play at SEA next week which may be an NFC championship preview. If there is any game that the Falcons will be up for it is this one vs a division rival at home in primetime.

[roccodean]

2* TB over Det

play at +8.5 or better

[roccodean]

Love this weeks card: May add Dallas, miami, jax, ten, ten/dall tease

[roccodean]

1* Ten -1

[Dat Boi E]

line is -7.5

[roccodean]

line is -7.5

Assuming u are talking bout ATL. At time I posted was 10. Work hard to always get best number.

[roccodean]

2* Arizona -1.5 over Indy --possible 3* upgrade
Although the public loves Indy and Luck, they are an average football team. And their defense is VERY bad. They allow 4.4 YPR (25th) and 8 YPPA (28th). Their offense is slightly above average, they they face an Ariz D that is top 5 in the league. They only allow 6.6 YPPA (6th) and 3.4 YPR (2nd). Indy is in a bad schedule spot. They are coming off a come from behind win at Tenn, now face a non-conference opponent and play Tenn next week again. I have a 75-33 ATS trend on Ariz due to their win streak and a couple other factors. Arizona will shut down Indy and get the win here.

1* NE +3 over Denver possible 2* upgrade
Would bet this ASAP
I have been low on the Pats this year, but they have been playing much better recently and are in a good spot here. Although they lost the Carolina they slightly outplayed them but were -2 in TOs and that was the difference. Denver can't stop the pass (21st in YPPA) and I think that Brady is going to have a field day. The Pats are 35-3 straight up in their last 38 regular season home games and now we are getting 3 points...I'll take it. Denvers strength is Manning and their pass game but the Pats are 10 in YPPA allowed. Denver may be 9-1 but they have played bad teams (strength of schedule is 2nd to last in the NFL). Pats are going to bounce back after loss and get the win here.


2* TB +9 over Detroit
+8.5 or better
TB may only have 2 wins, but I think they are better than their record shows. They have played the 2nd hardest schedule in the league and they have won their last 2 games (and hung with Sea the week before that). My calc line is Det -7 so the value is on TB. When you look at the stats, the only one that Det is better at is YPPA. TB is 15th in YPR. Defensively they are solid (12th vs the run and 17th vs the pass). Det is 16th vs the run and 21st vs the pass. As you can see, the discrepency is not that great to warrant such a high line. I like TB and think they can pull off the upset and would take the money line for a portion of your wager.

1* Dallas over NYG
Play at +2 or better--I am waiting to see if I can get +3 before gametime
This is a great spot for the Boys. They are coming off a blowout loss and a bye. A great trend favoring Dallas: teams that lose by 21+ points and allowed 49+ are 98-56-7 ATS the following week. My calculated line is Dallas -0.5. Dallas' stats aren't impressive buth their pass D has been solid (10th) and I think they take advantage of the Giants here and get the win.

1* Ten pick over Oakland
Play at -1 or better
Oakland is off a double digit dog straight up win and these teams tend to let down the next week. In fact, teams off a SU win as a 10 point dog are 48-15 ATS the next week. Tenn is coming off 10 days rest and should be well prepared for this game. I typically don't bet against a backup QB the first week they play because you don't know what to expect. But, now with McGloin making his 2nd start I think he throws a couple INT's and the Titans get the win.

[roccodean]

hope u guys grabbed the numbers early...beating the closing line by 2 points on some of these games after the sharps hit them...lets get it!

[Kaptain]

gl with the action Rocco

[Udog]

Good luck today, rocco! Thanks!

[jt4545]

Gl today

[weston555]

Preciate the analysis on the games to go along with your picks. I see the dal vs nyg you say dal has the 10th ranked pass d...im not sure how you rank this but the eye test alone says they are horrible and the yardage they gave up to new orleans and detroit was monumentally horrible. They are 25th in opponent pass completion percentage and that percentage trends up with their last few games as well as on the road as opposed to home. Theyre 21st in sacks, 25th in yards per pass attempt, 23rd in opponent passer rating, and dead last in opponent pass yards per game. Clearly they arent 10th. I personally took the giants because they are hot, albeit against weak competition. We have seen ny flip the switch before and i dont know if this is another one of those times but if it is, they are on a tear for a reason. They also finally got their run game back with andre brown while dallas is without one of its hardest workers on d (sean lee). For whatever its worth, nyg lost to the cowboys and you can only expect for a rival at home in this situation to come out with a chip on their shoulder. Dallas has played some stiff competition on the road but 1-4 still isnt anywhere near impressive. Overall dalls is just a funky case to me...as much as I figure they will get over that hump it seems like they ALWAYS find a way to lose when it matters. Your ATS trend is def a significant percentage but sometimes the bye week isnt a cure all for a team and on the other side of it, I see the giants as wanting to hit the field asap to keep this streak going and continue doing what theyre doing. Sorry for the drawn out critique of your pick, I just took the giants and thought I'd share why. Of course I will be rooting against your team in this one but best of luck on your other picks!

[Sirporkie]

GL! Opposite of you on Arizona. Seems like the cardinals turnover the ball a lot in key situations

[roccodean]

5-0 so far and 15-2 run!! Let's go pats