nfl week 11

[roccodean]

1* Cle browns +6

[roccodean]

1* tb +1

[roccodean]

2* Cleveland +6 over Cinci
Play at +6 or better
I like the Browns here bc this is a classic undervalued team. They don't have a sexy offense so they get now respect, but their D is for real. The Browns allow 3.6 YPR (4th in NFL) and only 6 YPPA (1st in NFL!). Conversely, Cinci's run D allows 3.9 YPR. The Browns have been playing solid with Campbell and the Helm and now they are off a bye. The weather is supposed to be bad which helps the dog more often if it is an ugly game (which I suspect it will be). I have a great 131-58 ATS trend favoring the Browns based on stats. I think the Browns have a great chance for the W and would wager on the money line also.

1* TB +1
Play at -1 or better
The Bucs fall into one of my favorite long term winning trends...play on home dogs after a straight up dog win (186-137-9 ATS or 58% before this year). These I think the ATL is still getting respect here bc of their name. My calc line is TB -1.5. Look at ATL's stats: rushing offense 3.5 YPR (29th), rushing D 4.6 YPR (27th), passing off 7.1 YPPA (18th), passing D 8.1 YPR (27th) ! They shouldn't be a road fav/short dog vs. the University of Akron. TB's D is solid at 8th vs the run and 15th vs the pass. I think they get a little swag after their monday night win and come out with the win here.

1* Carolina -1.5 over NE (possible 2* upgrade)
Play at -3 or better
Usually when a team covers 5 in a row like Car I look to bet against them, but that is bc the line is usually inflated. But, in this case, it is acutally too low bc NE gets so much public money/respect. Carolina is a better team than NE and we are laying under a FG in a primetime game...I'll take it. I am not concerned about the bye week...Bellichick is 6-6-1 ATS after a bye with the Pats. My calculated line is Carolina -5. Let's look at the stats. NE is 26th in YPPA offense and 12 in YPPA defense. They cannot stop the run allowing 4.3 YPR (22nd). Carolina's D is one of the top 3 in the league. They allow 3.7 YPR (9th) and 6.6 YPPA (8th). They are 12th in YPPA offensively and 18th in YPR. This is a statement game for the Panthers and I am going to take advantage before the sportsbooks/bettors realize how good they really are.

[vols fan]

good luck Rocco

[Sirporkie]

GL Rocco!

[Kaptain]

good luck to you today ROCCO............like your write ups......keep em coming........