NFL Week 10

[roccodean]

Based on 1-5*

2* Rams at +10 or better

1* TB ab +3 or better

[roccodean]

1* Jax +13

[roccodean]

1* 6 pt Tease: Minnesota +8.5/New Orleans -1 (sportsbook)
Would tease to +7.5 or better and Saints to -1 or better
MIN
I think this is going to be a close game and getting over a TD is a great play. Washington's D is horrible (24th vs the run,29th vs the pass) and that will allow Minnesota to stay in the game. Minnesota is 4th in YPR and will have no problem running on the Skins. Defensively, Minnesota is solid at 9th vs the run and 16 vs the pass. Washington is coming off an overtime game and now has to travel on a short week. My calculated line is Minnesota -1.

NO
I don't see the Saints losing two in a row and they are a great home team. Both teams running games offensively and defensively are bad, so it comes down to the pass game. Dallas is 20th in YPPA allowed and Brees is going to eat them up. My calculated line is right on the money at 6.5, so the teaser is a great option.

[wayne1218]

Good Luck this week rocco!

[roccodean]

2* St. Louis +10 over Indy (Posted Tuesday)
Indy does not deserve to be a double digit favorite here. Indy is winning games, but lets look deeper into their numbers. They are 25th vs the run and 23rd vs the pass and I think this allows the rams to keep this one close. Indy is coming off a a big win vs Denver, then a huge divisional prime time comeback win over Houston last week. I have the line at Indy -8 leading to value with the Rams and I have a 91-46 ATS trend favoring the Rams.

1* TB over Mia (Posted Tuesday)
Play at +3 or better
I am not sure how the Incognito scenario is going to affect the psyche of the team, but I do know that losing 2 left sided lineman on an already bad OL is a huge problem. Mia may have more wins than TB, but statistically they are similar. TB is 17th in YPR and defensively they are 14th vs the run and 18th vs the pass. Mia is 13th in YPR and 23rd in YPPA. Defensively they are average at 12th and 15th respectively. TB qualifies for a great trend playing on winless home dogs plus this is a prime time game!

1* Jax +13 over Ten (Posted Tuesday)
I know...I lose with Jax every week. So, there are 2 reasons to stop backing a team. First,I am wrong on my analysis or second, you cannot stand to lose on them again (emotionally). I don't think my analysis is wrong on this game...I think his game is 3 points off and the line should be 10. We know hat Jax stats are bad, but Tenn's are bad too. They are 16th in YPr and 22nd in YPPA. On defense the are 22nd in PR and 16th in YPPA allowed. I have multiple great trends favoring the Jags based on winless dogs and a few othe key factors. Also, winless dogs off byes have historically been great plays. Call me crazy but I think the Jags actually have a chance at an upset here as Tenn has a big lookahead game next week versus Indy.

1* Carolina over SF
Play at +6 or better
These are two hot teams facing each other in what should be a good game. When teams that have won 4 consecutive or more face each other the dog is 28-6 ATS. Everyone wants to say that SF is back, but I don't think so because they have not faced one good opponent in their recent run (Rams, Texans, Jags, Cards). Granted, the Panthers haven't played anyone great either but I think they are getting 3 extra points because of SF's name ( I have this line at SF -3.5). Great shot at an upset here and I like the money line also.

[Kaptain]

good luck today

[BigWeiner]

I like the 9ers and bucs

[Udog]

Thannks rocco! Good luck!

[Sirporkie]

GL Rocco

[Cabomike]

Great call on St. Louis and Jax. Good luck on the others.

[roccodean]

thx

[LeRoy]

Nice job today Rocco Always good to make$$$$$$$$$$$$

[kbsooner21]

Killer job Rocco!!!

[roccodean]

Lets go TB for the sweeper!