The Bum's November's College Football POD's+Trends+Stats+News !

[StarDust Bum]

Fri, Nov. 29

Iowa at Nebraska, 12:00 ET
Iowa: 1-8 ATS off a win against a conference rival
Nebraska: 2-5 ATS off a road win

Toledo at Akron, 12:00 ET
Toledo: 26-12 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
Akron: 1-8 ATS in home games off 1 or more consecutive unders

Miami Ohio at Ball State, 1:00 ET
Miami Ohio: 2-9 ATS as a road underdog
Ball State: 15-6 ATS after playing a conference game

Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan, 2:00 ET
Eastern Michigan: 2-8 ATS as an underdog
Central Michigan: 7-0 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games

Massachusetts at Ohio, 2:00 ET
U Mass: 2-8 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
Ohio: 3-12 ATS against conference opponents

East Carolina at Marshal, 12:00 ET
East Carolina: 21-5 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Marshal: 27-44 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers

Bowling Green at Buffalo, 1:30 ET
Bowling Green: 13-4 ATS as a favorite
Buffalo: 7-1 ATS after the first month of the season

Arkansas at LSU, 2:30 ET
Arkansas: 2-10 ATS in road games
LSU: 13-31 ATS in home games in November games

Texas State at Troy, 2:00 ET
Texas State: 1-5 ATS against conference opponents
Troy: 0-6 ATSin home games against conference opponents

Florida International at Florida Atlantic, 3:00 ET
Florida International: 1-8 ATS after a loss by 17 or more points
Florida Atlantic: 8-2 ATS in all games

South Florida at Central Florida, 8:00 ET
South Florida: 1-8 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game
Central Florida: 31-13 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

Fresno State at San Jose State, 3:30 ET
Fresno St: 12-2 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
San Jose St: 13-4 ATS as an underdog

Miami Florida at Pittsburgh, 3:30 ET
Miami Florida: 9-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3
Pittsburgh: 25-44 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game

Washington State at Washington, 3:30 ET
Washington State: 1-9 ATS after 5 consecutive games where they forced 2 or more turnovers
Washington: 9-23 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better

SMU at Houston, 12:00 ET
SMU: 4-13 ATS after scoring and allowing 17 or less points
Houston: 9-2 ATS in all games

Oregon State at Oregon, 7:00 ET
Oregon State: 27-13 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival
Oregon: 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 21.5 to 28 points

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Friday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet

Arkansas Razorbacks at LSU Tigers (-24.5, 54)

One bright spot for the Razorbacks in this rough season has been the pass rush. Arkansas’ 25 sacks are good for third in the SEC, and Chris Smith ranks second in the conference with 8.5 sacks. Pressuring LSU quarterback Zach Mettenberger into potential turnover situations might be the only chance Arkansas has against the Tigers, who gashed the Texas A&M Aggies for 324 rushing yards last week.

At 2,926 yards for the season,Mettenberger will become the third quarterback in school history to throw from 3,000 yards, barring an injury, but much of that success came early in the season. In LSU’s last five games, Mettenberger has seven touchdowns against five interceptions after racking up a 15-to-3 ratio in the Tigers’ first six contests. Jarvis Landry leads a talented receiving corps with 67 catches for 1,059 yards.

LINE: The Tigers are listed as 24 1/2-point favorites, with the over/under holding steady at 54.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with sunny skies.
TRENDS:

* Razorbacks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings at LSU.


Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State Spartans (+7, 71)

No. 13 Fresno State looks to complete an undefeated and untied regular season for the third time in school history when it visits San Jose State in its regular-season finale Friday. The Bulldogs have already wrapped up the West Division title in the Mountain West Conference and will play in the league championship game on Dec. 7. To finish perfect, Fresno State will have to defeat its longest-running rival, as the Spartans and Bulldogs have played 76 previous times.

A week after giving up 478 yards and 58 points in a loss to Navy, the San Jose State defense is feeling confident about going up against Fresno State's high-powered offense. Why? Because the Bulldogs are a passing team, something the Spartans are used to facing, as opposed to the run-oriented Midshipmen, who had 432 of their yards on the ground.

LINE: The Bulldogs opened at -9, but have been bet down to -7. The over/under is holding at 71.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies.
TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.
* Spartans are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.


Oregon State Beavers at Oregon Ducks (-21.5, 68.5)

Brandin Cooks is one of the offensive headliners for Oregon State, already possessing the school's single-season record with 110 receptions, just eight shy of the Pac-12 record set last season by Marqise Lee of USC. Of course, behind any record-setting receiver there is a big-time quarterback, and Sean Mannion has been terrific in 2013, completing 66 percent of his passes for 4,089 yards with 34 touchdowns.

The Ducks were ranked No. 2 in the BCS prior to their loss to the Cardinal and following last week's defeat, Oregon will sit back and watch as Stanford and Arizona State play for the league title next weekend. Mariota (3,127 passing yards, 529 rushing yards, 36 total touchdowns) suffered a head injury last week but passed the concussion protocol and expects to play against the Beavers.

LINE: Oregon is a 21 1/2-point fave after opening -21. The over/under is up one point to 68 1/2.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with mostly cloudy skies.
TRENDS:

* Beavers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.
* Ducks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games on fieldturf.
* Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.


South Florida Bulls at UCF Knights (-27, 50)

The Bulls have faced two ranked teams this season, losing to Miami and Louisville by a combined margin of 83-24. South Florida dropped a 16-6 defeat to Southern Methodist last week despite holding the Mustangs to a season-low 229 passing yards - one week after limiting Memphis to just 59 passing yards. Senior wideout Andre Davis ranks fifth all-time at South Florida in both career receptions (109) and receiving yards (1,441).

The Knights are 5-1 this season in games decided by seven points or less, although last week's 49-17 rout of Rutgers featured no such drama. Blake Bortles threw for 335 yards and recorded a touchdown through the air and another on the ground, while Storm Johnson had two rushing scores. In addition to its dynamic offense, Central Florida has committed the ninth-fewest turnovers in the country.

LINE: UCF is a 27-point fave, up one point from a -26 open. The over/under is up a half-point to 50.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing across the length of the field at 8 mph.
TRENDS:

* Bulls are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU win.
* Knights are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 7-2 in UCF's last nine games vs. teams with losing records.

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NCAAF weather report: Black Friday's forecast

Iowa Hawkeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-2, 47.5)
- Temperatures will be in the mid 30s and the will be a 11 mph wind blowing towards the North endzone.

Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls (+2, 51)
- There is a 47 percent chance of snow with temperatures in the mid 20s.

FIU Golden Panthers at Florida Atlantic Owls (-27.5, 42)
- There is a 10 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the mid 70s. There will be a 15 mph wind blowing across the field.

Miami Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Panthers (+2.5, 56)
- Temperatures will be in the low 30s with an 11 percent chance of rain.

Washington State Cougars at Washington Huskies (-16.5, 65.5)
- There is a 42 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the high 40s.

South Florida Bulls at UCF Knights (-27, 50)
- There is a 10 percent chance of rain with a 7 mph wind blowing towards the South endzone.

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NCAAF

Friday, November 29

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Arkansas at LSU: What bettors need to know
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Arkansas Razorbacks at Louisiana State Tigers (-24.5, 54)

No. 15 LSU is hoping to stay hot after its biggest win of the season when it hosts Arkansas on Friday afternoon in the Battle for the Golden Boot. The Tigers are coming off a 34-10 drubbing of Texas A&M last week in which its much maligned defense held the Aggies and Johnny Manziel to a 299 yards and 10 points, both lows in two years under Kevin Sumlin. LSU quarterback Zach Mettenberger, who has been inconsistent over the past few weeks, didn’t have to do much as the Tigers gashed the Aggies for 324 rushing yards.

Arkansas coach Bret Bielema is trying to avoid becoming the first coach in school history to suffer a nine-game losing streak. The Razorbacks have struggled to score, averaging just 20.1 points per game (110th nationally) and to move the ball through the air at 145.8 yards per game (115th nationally). Unless Arkansas’ running game can carry them, the Razorbacks are staring at a third straight loss in the series.

TV: 2:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: The line has held steady at -24.5. The total opened at 54.5 and has move down slightly to 54.

WEATHER: It will be clear with temperatures in the mid 50s.

ABOUT ARKANSAS (3-8, 3-8 ATS): One bright spot for the Razorbacks in this rough season has been the pass rush. Arkansas’ 25 sacks are good for third in
the SEC, and Chris Smith ranks second in the conference with 8.5 sacks. Pressuring Mettenberger into potential turnover situations might be the only chance Arkansas has against the Tigers.

ABOUT LSU (8-3, 5-5-1 ATS): At 2,926 yards for the season, Mettenberger will become the third quarterback in school history to throw from 3,000 yards, barring an injury, but much of that success came early in the season. In LSU’s last five games, Mettenberger has seven touchdowns against five interceptions after racking up a 15-to-3 ratio in the Tigers’ first six contests. With one of the nation’s top receiving corps in Jarvis Landry (67 catches, 1,059 yards) and Odell Beckham Jr. (56 catches 1,101 yards), the game against Arkansas could provide Mettenberger a chance to regain his early-season form.

TRENDS:

* Arkansas is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Louisiana State.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. LSU leads the nation in third-down percentage at 58.6 percent.

2. Arkansas is looking to avoid its first winless season in conference play since joining the SEC.

3. The Golden Boot is a 24-karat gold trophy molded into the shape of the states of Louisiana and Arkansas.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, November 29

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Oregon State at Oregon: What bettors need to know
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Oregon State Beavers at Oregon Ducks (-21.5, 68.5)

A month ago, Oregon was on a path toward the BCS title game, but now the Ducks are simply on a path to redemption. Following a crushing defeat against Stanford on Nov. 7 and last week's stunning blowout at Arizona, No. 12 Oregon returns home looking to take out some anger against rival Oregon State in the Civil War game Friday. The Ducks appear to be catching the Beavers at the right time as Oregon State has dropped four straight games, including a 69-27 pounding against Washington last week.

The Beavers' rushing defense could be the key this weekend as they allowed 530 yards on the ground against the Huskies. The Ducks, while led by Heisman Trophy candidate Marcus Mariota at quarterback, also possess a strong rushing attack that ranks 10th in the country at 277.9 yards per contest. Oregon wideout Keanon Lowe knows that sulking is not an option at this point, saying, "It's the Civil War. We all know what the Civil War is and what that means. So we have no time to dwell on (our recent losses)."

TV: 7 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1.

LINE: The line opened at -22 and has been bet down to -21.5. The total opened at 67.5 and has been bet up to 68.5.

WEATHER: It will be mostly cloudy with temperatures in the mid 40s.

BOUT OREGON STATE (6-5, 5-6 ATS): Brandin Cooks is one of the offensive headliners for Oregon State, already possessing the school's single-season
record with 110 receptions, just eight shy of the Pac-12 record set last season by Marqise Lee of USC. Of course, behind any record-setting receiver there is a big-time quarterback, and Sean Mannion has been terrific in 2013, completing 66 percent of his passes for 4,089 yards with 34 touchdowns. However, the Oregon State defense has allowed 37.5 points on average during its four-game slide and gave up 692 total yards to the Huskies last weekend.

ABOUT OREGON (9-2, 7-4 ATS): The Ducks were ranked No. 2 in the BCS prior to their loss to the Cardinal and following last week's defeat, Oregon will sit
back and watch as Stanford and Arizona State play for the league title next weekend. Mariota (3,127 passing yards, 529 rushing yards, 36 total touchdowns) suffered a head injury last week but passed the concussion protocol and expects to play against the Beavers. Still, that could mean a heavier workload for De'Anthony Thomas, who racked up 227 all-purpose yards on 27 touches against Arizona.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Oregon.
* Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.
* Oregon State is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five meetings.
* Road team is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Prior to throwing an interception on the Ducks' first play against Arizona, Mariota had gone 353 straight passes without a pick.

2. Oregon has won five straight in the series.

3. Oregon State has six wins, but the Beavers are not guaranteed a bowl game, as the Pac-12 has seven bowl agreements but nine teams already bowl eligible.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Friday/Saturday's games
Top 13 games

Friday's best games

Nebraska shut Iowa down in both meetings as league rivals, winning 13-7 at Iowa LY, 20-7 here in 2011; Cornhuskers outrushed Iowa 422-196 in the two games. Hawkeyes completed just 27-61 passing in those games; they're 3-1 on road this year, losing by 10 (+17) at Ohio State for only road loss. Nebraska allowed 34-41-41 points in its three losses this year, with two of them at home; Iowa scored 24 or less points in six of its last seven games. Big Dozen home favorites are 14-9 vs spread.

Miami won its last seven games with Pitt, but teams haven't met since 2010, only once in last decade; Hurricanes were outrushed 601-276 in last two games- they've lost three of last four after 7-0 start, losing at Florida State (41-14), Duke (48-20). Pitt has total of 168 rushing yards in its last four games; they've lost three of last five, nipping Syracuse in Carrier Dome 17-16 last week, which made them bowl eligible. Panthers are 6-5 but beat Duke/Notre Dame, pretty good teams; they're 3-2 as an underdog this season. Miami failed to cover any of its last six games.

Washington State upset the Huskies LY, ending three-year skid in Apple Cup, where underdogs are 11-5 vs spread the last 16 years, 1-3 last four; dogs are 5-2 in Coogs' last seven visits here. 6-5 Wazzu became eligible for bowl last week, but their last four losses this year have been by 38-28-24-34 points; they're 4-2 as an underdog this year. Washington is 3-1 as home favorite this year, beating I-A teams at home by 32-18-24-52 points; Huskies played only one game this year that was decided by less than 10 points. Pac-12 home favorites are 16-11 against the spread.

Oregon won its last five games with Oregon State, beating Beavers by an average score of 47-27; State lost seven of last eight visits here (3-5 vs spread), losing last two 49-21/37-33. Ducks lost two of last theree after an 8-0 start; they're 3-2 as home favorites this year, winning by 24-23 in two games they didn't cover. Oregon allowed 274-304 rushing yards iin its two losses, but State is more of finesse passing team. State lost last four games; they're 6-5 with loss to a I-AA team, not sure what bowl is going want them- they're 4-1 SU on road, 2-0 as a road underdog.

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Betting NCAAF teams facing disappointing finishes

For a handful of NCAA teams, the end of the season can't get here quickly enough.

While the top programs head into their respective finales looking to fine-tune for bowl season, several teams with high expectations will be headed home early. Others will wind up playing in a bowl game - but it won't carry nearly the same prestige as the game they were hoping for.

Here are four teams with little to play for as they wrap up their seasons:

TCU Horned Frogs (4-7, 2-6 Big 12)

This week: vs. Baylor Bears (9-1, 6-1)

Just two seasons removed from a third consecutive Mountain West championship, the Horned Frogs' fall from grace is nearly complete. Faced with needing back-to-back home wins over Texas and West Virginia to bolster their bowl chances, they proceeded to lose them both - allowing 60 points in the process - and saw their final chance at bowl eligibility vaporized with last week's 33-31 loss at Kansas State. But TCU still has something to play for - a win over Baylor would send the Bears plummeting down the rankings and drop them into a less desirable bowl game.

TCU is an 11.5-point underdog for Saturday afternoon's tilt with Baylor.


Florida Gators (4-7, 3-5 SEC)

This week: vs. Florida State Seminoles (11-0, 8-0)

The Gainesville faithful couldn't have seen this disaster of a season coming, particularly after the Gators opened with four wins in their first five games. Since then, Florida has dropped six-straight contests - including its first-ever defeat against an FCS opponent - and will finish with a losing record for the first time in 35 years. Last week's stunning 26-20 loss to Georgia Southern halted Florida's bowl streak at 22 seasons. The Gators won't need much prodding to get up for their season finale - a showdown with the rival Seminoles, who can clinch a spot in the National Championship with a win.

Florida is a 27.5-point underdog versus visiting Florida State.


Oregon Ducks (9-2, 6-2 Pac-12)

This week: vs. Oregon State Beavers (6-5, 4-4)

Both teams belong on this list, but the Ducks' precipitous drop from second to 13th in the BCS standings is easily the more egregious development. Oregon was on track for a possible spot in the National Championship three weeks ago, but dropped a six-point decision to Stanford and was blown out 42-16 in Arizona two weeks later. The second defeat cost the Ducks an at-large BCS berth, leaving it to settle for what will likely be an appearance in the Alamo Bowl. Oregon State is also struggling, having dropped four in a row to land in one of the lesser bowl games.

Oregon is a 21.5-point favorite for Friday's home game against Oregon State.


Georgia Bulldogs (7-4, 5-3 SEC)

This week: at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-4, 5-3 ACC)

The Bulldogs came into the year as a prohibitive favorite to contend for a BCS berth - even picking up a first-place vote in the preseason AP Top 25 poll. But an early four-game winning streak gave way to consecutive losses to Missouri and Vanderbilt, and a 43-38 defeat at the hands of the Auburn Tigers dropped the Bulldogs out of contention for the conference championship. Losing senior quarterback Aaron Murray to a torn ACL in last week's 59-17 drubbing of Kentucky was a tragically fitting final straw for a team that saw more than its share of bad luck this year.

Georgia is a 3.5-point favorite against host Georgia Tech.

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Friday, November 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Southern Methodist - 12:00 PM ET Southern Methodist +9.5 500

Houston - Under 63.5 500

Toledo - 12:00 PM ET Toledo -8.5 500

Akron - Over 56 500

Iowa - 12:00 PM ET Iowa +2 500 POD # 1

Nebraska - Under 48 500 POD # 1

East Carolina - 12:00 PM ET East Carolina +4 500

Marshall - Over 65.5 500

Miami (Ohio) - 1:00 PM ET Ball State -34.5 500 POD # 1

Ball State - Over 56 500

Bowling Green - 1:30 PM ET Bowling Green -2.5 500 POD # 1

Buffalo - Under 50.5 500

Massachusetts - 2:00 PM ET Massachusetts +18.5 500

Ohio - Over 52 500

Eastern Michigan - 2:00 PM ET Central Michigan -17.5 500 POD # 1

Central Michigan - Under 57.5 500

Texas State - 2:00 PM ET Troy -6.5 500

Troy - Over 56.5 500

Arkansas - 2:30 PM ET Louisiana State -26 500

Louisiana State - Under 54 500 POD # 1

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Evening Pod's


Oregon State - 7:00 PM ET Oregon -23 500

Oregon - Under 69 500 POD # 1

South Florida - 8:00 PM ET Central Florida -26.5 500 POD # 1

Central Florida - Over 50.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Rivalry Games

November 29, 2013


UCLA BRUINS (8-3) at USC TROJANS (9-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line USC -3.5, Total: 51.5

No. 22 UCLA looks to bounce back from last week’s loss as it takes on its inner-city rival, No. 23 USC, on Saturday night.

Last year when these two teams matched up, it was the Bruins who were able to get the 38-28 victory. The win helped push UCLA to the Pac-12 championship game, while the Trojans finished a disappointing season after being billed as the No. 1 team in the preseason. Even though UCLA is no longer in the conference title race, the Bruins are still a very talented team that can reach double-figures in victories. QB Brett Hundley (2,637 pass yards, 22 TD, 68% completions) is a great quarterback, but he still has moments where he makes big mistakes. If he is able to limit the turnovers on Saturday against a very talented USC defense, (20.2 PPG allowed, 17th in FBS), then the Bruins will have a good chance to win the game. However, they have really struggled on the road, going 0-5 ATS in their past five road games. The USC season appeared to be headed on a downward spiral after getting blown out by Arizona State, which led to the firing of head coach Lane Kiffin. However, interim coach Ed Orgeron has stepped in and proven himself deserving to be named full-time coach. The Trojans are 6-1 on the season under Orgeron, and sophomore QB Cody Kessler (2,449 pass yards, 15 TD, 65% completions) has really started to thrive under his new coach's direction. The Trojans have been terrific during their past five games, going 4-1 ATS and winning those games by an average of 17.6 PPG.

The Bruins' offense enters the game ranked 27th in the nation in scoring with 36.6 points per game. However, in its past three road games, UCLA has averaged only 18.3 PPG. After having to deal with injuries throughout the season at the running back position, head coach Jim Mora moved Myles Jack from linebacker to running back, and the results have been great, with Jack racking up 265 rushing yards and six touchdowns. At the wide receiver position, Shaquelle Evans (42 catches, 604 yards, 8 TD) has been Hundley’s go-to receiver all season, giving the Bruins a big-play threat on offense. On the defensive side of the ball, UCLA has allowed 25.0 PPG this season, but has one of the elite defensive players in the country in LB Anthony Barr. At 6-foot-4 and 248 pounds, Barr (52 tackles, 8 sacks) has terrific size for his position, but his speed and athleticism are what separates him from other linebackers in the country. While Cody Kessler is playing much better at quarterback for USC, Barr has the ability to single-handedly disrupt an offense with his pressure. Look for the Trojans to run the ball at him early, trying to get him to have to do more than just rush the quarterback.

Sophomore RB Javorius Allen (576 rush yards, 6.5 YPC, 11 TD) has became the go-to ball carrier for the Trojans, rushing for at least 133 yards in three of the past four games. At 215 pounds, he is the type of running back that can wear down the opponent, and by the time the fourth quarter rolls around, he is nearly impossible to tackle. The Trojans also have one of the most talented receivers in all of the country in WR Marqise Lee (44 catches, 604 yards, 2 TD). While the numbers are not close to what they were last season when he gained 1,721 yards with 14 scores, Lee is still one of the most dangerous receivers in the country. Opposing defenses have double-teamed Lee on a consistent basis the entire season, and the Trojans offense has been able to open up the past few weeks. If Kessler is able to get time to throw the ball, Lee will have some opportunities to make the big play. While Orgeron deserves a ton of the credit for the improvement of the Trojans offense, the defense has been very good for USC as well, allowing just 337 total YPG, including only 290 YPG at home. Junior S Dion Bailey (53 tackles, 5 INT) has proven to be as talented of a player in the secondary as there is in the Pac-12. Look for Bailey to do a little of everything, which could also include spying on quarterback Brett Hundley.

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (8-3) at STANFORD CARDINAL (9-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line Stanford -14.5, Total: 49

Looking to avenge a loss to the Fighting Irish from last season, No. 8 Stanford will finish the regular season against a newly-ranked No. 25 Notre Dame squad seeking its second win against a ranked opponent this season.

Stanford is coming off a 63-13 thumping of California, rebounding strongly after a stunning loss to USC the week before. With the win, the Cardinal improved to 4-1 (SU and ATS) in their past five games. Overall, they are 6-5 ATS, with a 4-2 mark at home. Notre Dame upset BYU 23-13 last week as a three-point underdog on the road to move to 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in its past six games. The Irish are 4-6-1 overall ATS, while that win was their first cover on the road, where they are 1-3 ATS. They are also 1-2 (SU and ATS) this season against ranked foes, with the lone win and cover coming against Arizona State. They also notably beat USC while they were unranked. While Notre Dame won last year’s matchup between these two teams, Stanford covered the nine-point spread in the 20-13 overtime contest. And with the Cardinal winning the two previous matchups, they are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS over the past three years. And this could be another big game for the Stanford passing attack, as the Cardinal are 13-2 ATS over the past three seasons against poor passing defenses.

Notre Dame QB Tommy Rees was a hero in last year’s win against Stanford, coming in for overtime and going 4-for-4 including the game-winning TD. This year he’s been called upon often and thrown for an impressive 2,739 yards, 25 TD and 11 INT. However, he has just a 54.5% completion rate. On the ground, Cam McDaniel (603 rush yards, 4.6 YPC, 3 TD) and George Atkinson III (554 rush yards, 6.2 YPC, 3 TD) lead the way. Rees’ top target has been TJ Jones (986 rec. yards, 16.7 avg., 8 TD). He caught four passes for 52 yards in last year’s contest, including the overtime score. DaVaris Daniels (641 rec. yards, 15.6 avg., 6 TD) has also been a top-notch receiving threat. The Notre Dame defense has been solid this year, giving up only 22.5 PPG on 4.1 YPC on the ground and 60.4% passing. The Irish will look to replicate last year when they limited Stanford to 125 passing yards, 0 TD and 2 INT with just 3.7 YPC on the ground.

As those numbers show, Josh Nunes struggled against the Fighting Irish defense last year, but QB Kevin Hogan is under center this season. He’s completing 61% of his passes for 18 TD and 7 INT, totaling 2,052 yards. He tossed five touchdowns against Cal last week, snapping a three-week stretch in which he didn’t find the end zone at all. In that span, he was picked off twice, both in the loss to USC. His favorite target without a doubt has been Ty Montgomery (822 rec. yards, 16.4 avg., 9 TD), who caught four of those scores against the Golden Bears. RB Tyler Gaffney also leads a strong Cardinal rushing attack, scoring 16 times on 1,296 yards and 5.2 YPC. The Cardinal defense gives up 18.9 PPG (13th in FBS), and most of that is because of the front seven that gives up a stingy 3.0 YPC. Stanford has also forced at least one turnover in every game this season, but has not generated more than two takeaways in any 2013 contest.

CLEMSON TIGERS (10-1) at SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (9-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line South Carolina -5, Total: 58

In an intra-state rivalry that pits two top-10 teams against each other will resume on Saturday night with both No. 6 Clemson and No. 10 South Carolina looking to finish the season with a high-profile win heading into the bowl selection process.

The Tigers have gone 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) since they got thumped 51-14 by Florida State for their only loss of the season. Clemson is 6-4-1 ATS this season and 2-1-1 ATS on the road, and has been an underdog twice, losing to FSU but beating Georgia in the first week of the season. The Gamecocks are 5-6 ATS this season and also 3-1 ATS since their last loss, which came at the hands of Tennessee. Their current four-game win streak started with an impressive win at Missouri. With a 27-17 victory against Clemson last season, South Carolina improved to 4-0 (SU and ATS) in the past four meetings between these two powerhouses. And over the past 10 seasons, home favorites of between 3.5 and 10 points are 73-34 ATS (68%) coming off a win by 35 or more points, like the Gamecocks after beating Coastal Carolina 70-10 last week. But over the past three years, Clemson is 8-0 ATS after three consecutive games of committing less than two turnovers.

Clemson QB Tajh Boyd struggled last year against the Gamecocks defense, completing only 11-of-24 passes while throwing two picks and only one touchdown. He also carried the ball 17 times for only 26 yards, though he added a rushing score. However, he has led a tremendous Clemson offense this year that’s averaging 42.3 PPG. Boyd has completed 67.3% of his passes for 3,248 yards, 29 TD and 7 INT. His go-to weapon is future NFL player WR Sammy Watkins (1,144 rec. yards, 10 TD). In last year’s loss to South Carolina, Watkins caught only four balls for 37 yards. Boyd is the main focus of the offense but the Gamecocks shouldn’t sleep on RB Roderick McDowell, who has 845 rushing yards on 5.2 YPC. Boyd likes to take it himself too, adding eight rushing touchdowns despite averaging only 2.2 YPC. The Tigers defense hasn’t been bad either, giving up just 20.2 PPG, only faltering in the loss to the Seminoles. The unit gives up 3.8 YPC and a completion rate of just 52.3%.

QB Connor Shaw has been ridiculously efficient as the Gamecocks signal caller this year, throwing for 20 TD and only one interception. He has completed 61.8% of his passes for 1,983 yards, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt. Shaw can run too, accumulating 417 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground. But sophomore RB Mike Davis is the team’s primary ball carrier, rushing for 1,112 yards on 6.2 YPC. Davis has 10 rushing scores and also ranks second on the team with 30 receptions. The team’s top receivers, though have been WRs Bruce Ellington (584 rec. yards, 6 TD) and Damiere Byrd (549 rec. yards, 4 TD). And the defense, highlighted by star DE Jadeveon Clowney, gives up 4.0 YPC and 7.0 yards per pass attempt.

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (11-0) at MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (7-4)

Sportsbook.ag Line Ohio State -14.5, Total: 58

No. 3 Ohio State is one game away from going undefeated in the regular season for a second straight year, but to achieve this feat, it must knock off rival Michigan at the Big House on Saturday afternoon.

This has always been one of the fiercest rivalries in the country, and the Buckeyes won a wild game last season by a score of 26-21. However, the two teams are going different directions this season, as the Buckeyes (6-4-1 ATS) still have a realistic chance of playing in the national championship. QB Braxton Miller (1,626 pass yards, 19 TD, 4 INT) has continued to improve throughout the season, and is playing as well as any quarterback in the country. Miller gets a lot of the talk for good reason, but RB Carlos Hyde (1,064 rush yards, 13 TD) has been a star this season. The balance on the offensive end has made the Buckeyes' offense nearly impossible to slow down, and they look to carry that momentum against their rivals up north. The Wolverines got off to a great start in 2013, winning six of their first seven games with the only blemish being a quadruple overtime loss to Penn State. However, things have spiraled down hill as of late, as they have lost three of their past four games. A large reason is because of their inability to score, as they have posted only 49 points over their past four games. That offense is also the same reason why the past four Wolverines games have finished Under the total. Michigan QB Devin Gardner (2,509 pass yards, 17 TD, 11 INT) has had some highlight moments, but has been too inconsistent throughout the season. Ohio State, which is 11-3 ATS when facing a winning team since the start of 2011, cannot afford to overlook Michigan, which is 6-0 ATS after gaining 125 passing yards or less in its last game in this same timeframe.

Urban Meyer has put the Buckeyes back on the map as one of the best teams in the country, having been able to bring in more speed to the Ohio State program. The offense currently ranks third in the nation in scoring (48.7 PPG) and fifth in rushing yards (314.7 YPG). RB Carlos Hyde destroyed Michigan in last year's win, piling up 146 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries (5.6 YPC). QB Braxton Miller added 57 yards on the ground versus the Wolverines and was very efficient through the air too, completing 14-of-18 throws for 189 yards (10.5 YPA), 1 TD and 0 INT. Wide receiver Devin Smith (40 catches, 591 yards, 7 TD) has the ability to make the big play at any given moment. Earlier this season against California, he caught a 90-yard touchdown, showcasing elite speed and playmaking ability. Smith is also a great route runner that complements QB Braxton Miller’s scrambling ability very well. The offense has been terrific the entire season, but the defense has struggled at times. Although the Buckeyes allow just 18.4 PPG (8th FBS), they have been susceptible to giving up the big play through the air. However, CB Bradley Roby (54 tackles, 3 INT) is one of the most talented defensive backs in all of the country. He does a great job of playing against the run, but has the speed and athleticism to blanket wide receivers. The one weakness that he and the rest of the secondary have had is too often going for the big play, and in turn, giving up a lot of yards. That could be a problem as the Wolverines, despite their struggles, have a big-time home run threat at wide receiver in Jeremy Gallon.

Gallon (71 catches, 1,109 yards, 8 TD) has been the most consistent player for the Wolverines offense this season. On Oct. 19 against Indiana, he set a Big Ten record with 369 receiving yards, showing he can take over a game. He is not the biggest target at 5-foot-8 and 187 pounds, but he is not afraid to go over the middle and make the tough catch. In last year's loss to OSU, he caught six passes for 67 yards. For the Wolverines to stay in this game, they are going to have to get big contributions from RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (613 rush yards, 11 TD) who has been nearly non-existent in his past three games (all losses) with 23 carries for 38 yards. He must get back to his early season form for the Wolverines to have any chance of pulling off the upset, and the defense must also put forth a huge effort. The Michigan defense currently ranks 52nd in the country in points allowed (25.1 PPG), but has played much better as of late. Junior DB Blake Countess (43 tackles, 5 INT) has the ability to shut down the opposing team’s best receiver, which in this case will be Devin Smith. If Countess is able to contain Smith, that will go a long way towards the Wolverines spoiling their rival's dream season.

[StarDust Bum]

Alabama at Auburn

November 29, 2013


Matchup: No. 1 Alabama at No. 4 Auburn
Venue: Jordan-Hare Stadium from Auburn, Alabama
Date: Saturday, Nov. 30, 2013
Time/TV: 3:30 pm. ET - CBS
Line: Alabama -11, Over/Under 56
Last Meeting: 2012, Alabama (-34) 49 vs. Auburn 0

The Iron Bowl is always a must-see event. This storied rivalry has always been one of the most heated in all of sports, not just college football.

But there’s never been a meeting between these schools that has had as much meaning, and the annual regular-season finale has never served as a de-facto SEC West Championship Game.

For Auburn, it can cap a remarkable campaign by getting to the Ga. Dome just one year after it lost nine games and had to fire its coach just two years after Gene Chizik led AU to its first national title since the 1950.

Most important, it can deny its hated in-state rival a chance to win a third consecutive national title and a fourth in five years. A win would do wonders for Gus Malzahn on the recruiting trail where he often finds himself going head to head against the growing legend of Nick Saban.

For Alabama, a win at Auburn, coupled with two more victories in Atlanta and Pasadena, would allow the school to use the ‘D’ word. I’m talking about dynasty. That’s what you call a five-year run in which you win it all four times. And let’s also remember that the Crimson Tide went unbeaten in the regular season in 2008 before falling to eventual champ Florida at the Ga. Dome.

Most betting shops have installed Alabama (11-0 straight up, 6-4-1 against the spread) as a 10 ½-point favorite with the total in the 55-56 range. Gamblers can take Auburn (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) on the money line for a +350 payouot (risk $100 to win $350). For first-half wagers, ‘Bama is favored by 6 ½ with a total of 27 ½.

Auburn has won seven consecutive games since losing 35-21 at LSU in Week 4. The Tigers have taken the cash in eight straight contests. They are 2-0 ATS as underdogs this year and both situations were double-digit ‘dog spots (at LSU and at Texas A&M).

Malzahn’s team allowed a 37-17 fourth-quarter lead to get away in its last game at home vs. Georgia. Aaron Murray sparked an improbable rally for the Bulldogs, who took a 38-37 advantage with 1:49 remaining on a five-yard TD run from Murray on fourth and goal.

Facing a fourth-and-18 play moments later, Auburn’s Nick Marshall threw deep into double coverage for Ricardo Louis. Two UGA defenders had perfect coverage but instead of batting the ball down, they both tried to catch the ball. This resulted in the ball bouncing up and forward and miraculously hitting Louis in stride.

Louis had completely lost sight of the ball, only to look up and have it fall right into his arms as he coasted into the end zone. Auburn backers thought they were going to suffer a bad beat but instead collected a lucky winner in a 43-38 triumph as a three-point favorite.

Auburn lives by its ground attack that ranks third in the nation. The Tigers average 320.3 rushing yards per game. Tre Mason has rushed for 1,153 yards and 17 TDs while averaging 5.5 yards per carry.

QB Nick Marshall has rushed for 823 yards and nine TDs. The junior signal caller, a former secondary player at Georgia early in his career, has a 9/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Alabama hasn’t lost since falling to Texas A&M at home last season. The Crimson Tide has won by 13 points or more in 10 of its 11 wins.

Senior QB A.J. McCarron is the leader of this team and a viable contender for the Heisman Trophy. McCarron has a 23/5 TD-INT ratio and always delivers in the clutch. He has a deep set of WRs and he distributes the ball to wherever the defense dictates, rarely making poor decisions.

T.J. Yeldon has rushed for a team-high 1,022 yards and 12 TDs. His back-up, Kenyan Drake, has run for 661 yards and eight TDs while averaging 7.5 YPC.

The ‘over’ is 6-5 for Auburn, but the ‘under’ is 4-3 in its home games. The ‘over’ has cashed in five of AU’s last six games.

Totals have been an overall wash for ‘Bama (5-5-1), but the ‘over’ is 2-1-1 in its four previous road assignments.

As a road favorite during Saban’s tenure, Alabama has compiled a 17-10 spread record. Meanwhile, going back to 2003, Auburn is 7-4 ATS in 11 games as a home underdog.

Auburn has had two weeks to prepare, while Alabama blasted UT-Chattanooga by a 49-0 count last weekend.

Saban’s team has won four of the last five head-to-head meetings and it has covered the number in back-to-back encounters. The lone defeat in this stretch came in 2010, AU’s national-title year, when Cam Newton orchestrated an incredible comeback win in Tuscaloosa.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 30

Game 345-346: Ohio State at Michigan (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 115.811; Michigan 95.970
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 20; 53
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 14 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-14 1/2); Under

Game 347-348: Boston College at Syracuse (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 85.935; Syracuse 88.869
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 3; 57
Vegas Line: Boston College by 3; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (+3); Over

Game 349-350: Maryland at North Carolina State (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 85.279; North Carolina State 80.529
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 4 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Maryland by 2 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-2 1/2); Under

Game 351-352: Wake Forest at Vanderbilt (12:21 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 79.944; Vanderbilt 99.312
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 19 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 14; 42
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-14); Under

Game 353-354: Duke at North Carolina (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 94.762; North Carolina 96.725
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 2; 65
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 6 1/2; 60
Dunkel Pick: Duke (+6 1/2); Over

Game 355-356: Iowa State at West Virginia (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 84.136; West Virginia 85.076
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 1; 62
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 8 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (+8 1/2); Over

Game 357-358: Northwestern at Illinois (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 88.164; Illinois 82.359
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 6; 54
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 3 1/2; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-3 1/2); Under

Game 359-360: Purdue at Indiana (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 69.031; Indiana 94.747
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 25 1/2; 61
Vegas Line: Indiana by 20 1/2; 66
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-20 1/2); Under

Game 361-362: Rutgers at Connecticut (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 73.301; Connecticut 75.560
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 2 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 3; 49
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+3); Over

Game 363-364: Tennessee at Kentucky (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 84.951; Kentucky 84.513
Dunkel Line: Even; 59
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 4 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+4 1/2); Over

Game 365-366: Minnesota at Michigan State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 93.193; Michigan State 111.506
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 18 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 14 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-14 1/2); Under

Game 367-368: Temple at Memphis (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 78.137; Memphis 79.947
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 2; 52
Vegas Line: Memphis by 9; 47
Dunkel Pick: Temple (+9); Over

Game 369-370: Southern Mississippi at UAB (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 48.744; UAB 65.847
Dunkel Line: UAB by 17; 56
Vegas Line: UAB by 14; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UAB (-14); Under

Game 371-372: South Alabama at Georgia State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 71.003; Georgia State 66.802
Dunkel Line: South Alabama by 4; 66
Vegas Line: South Alabama by 9; 60
Dunkel Pick: Georgia State (+9); Over

Game 373-374: Wyoming at Utah State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 64.215; Utah State 100.088
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 36; 54
Vegas Line: Utah State by 20 1/2; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (-20 1/2); Under

Game 375-376: Colorado at Utah (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 78.728; Utah 92.590
Dunkel Line: Utah by 14; 62
Vegas Line: Utah by 17; 56
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+17); Over

Game 377-378: BYU at Nevada (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 102.763; Nevada 74.933
Dunkel Line: BYU by 28; 60
Vegas Line: BYU by 14 1/2; 64 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-14); Under

Game 379-380: Tulane at Rice (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 81.095; Rice 85.073
Dunkel Line: Rice by 4; 55
Vegas Line: Rice by 12; 49
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+12); Over

Game 381-382: Georgia at Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 101.454; Georgia Tech 95.067
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 6 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Georgia by 3; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-3); Under

Game 383-384: Texas A&M at Missouri (7:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 106.904; Missouri 108.109
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 1; 73
Vegas Line: Missouri by 5; 68
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+5); Over

Game 385-386: Virginia Tech at Virginia (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 96.087; Virginia 74.185
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 22; 37
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 12 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-12 1/2); Under

Game 387-388: Alabama at Auburn (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 116.426; Auburn 108.921
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 7 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Alabama by 11; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (+11); Over

Game 389-390: New Mexico at Boise State (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 65.478; Boise State 103.474
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 38; 61
Vegas Line: Boise State by 35 1/2; 64
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-35 1/2); Under

Game 391-392: Baylor at TCU (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 104.652; TCU 94.456
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 10; 68
Vegas Line: Baylor by 13; 64
Dunkel Pick: TCU (+13); Over

Game 393-394: Florida State at Florida (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 128.076; Florida 81.388
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 46 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Florida State by 27 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-27 1/2); Over

Game 395-396: Air Force at Colorado State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 72.456; Colorado State 86.110
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 13 1/2; 65
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 16 1/2; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+16 1/2); Over

Game 397-398: Kansas State at Kansas (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 102.918; Kansas 74.121
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 29; 46
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 16; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-16); Under

Game 399-400: Penn State at Wisconsin (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 86.482; Wisconsin 117.357
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 31; 44
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 23 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-23 1/2); Under

Game 401-402: Louisiana Tech at TX-San Antonio (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 69.139; TX-San Antonio 82.622
Dunkel Line: TX-San Antonio by 13 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: TX-San Antonio by 16 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+16 1/2); Over

Game 403-404: Idaho at New Mexico State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 56.248; New Mexico State 56.341
Dunkel Line: Even; 68
Vegas Line: New Mexico State 3 1/2; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+3 1/2); Over

Game 405-406: San Diego State at UNLV (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 84.826; UNLV 77.659
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 7; 50
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 3; 55
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-3); Under

Game 407-408: Arkansas State at Western Kentucky (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 85.546; Western Kentucky 75.675
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 10; 62
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 6 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (+6 1/2); Over

Game 409-410: North Texas at Tulsa (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 87.857; Tulsa 69.647
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 18; 45
Vegas Line: North Texas by 4 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-4 1/2); Under

Game 411-412: UL-Monroe at UL-Lafayette (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 78.172; UL-Lafayette 84.055
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 6; 62
Vegas Line: UL Lafayette by 15; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (+15); Over

Game 413-414: UTEP at Middle Tennessee State (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 56.299; Middle Tennessee State 81.843
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 25 1/2;
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 22 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-22 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: Clemson at South Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 108.887; South Carolina 105.354
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 3 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 5 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+5 1/2); Over

Game 417-418: UCLA at USC (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 99.831; USC 112.543
Dunkel Line: USC by 12 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: USC by 3 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: USC (-3 1/2); Under

Game 419-420: Notre Dame at Stanford (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 100.281; Stanford 110.403
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 10; 53
Vegas Line: Stanford by 14 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+14 1/2); Over

Game 421-422: Arizona at Arizona State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 89.854; Arizona State 112.545
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 22 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 12 1/2; 61
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-12 1/2); Under

Game 423-424: Army at Hawaii (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Army 65.462; Hawaii 73.534
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 8; 56
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 6 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (-6 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

Sat, Nov. 30

Ohio State at Michigan, 12:00 ET
Ohio State: 62-39 ATS in road lined games
Michigan: 1-10 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6

Duke at North Carolina, 12:00 ET
Duke: 9-2 ATS when playing on a Saturday
North Carolina: 6-20 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games

Iowa State at West Virginia, 4:00 ET
Iowa State: 14-5 UNDER after playing 3 straight conference games
West Virginia: 8-18 ATS in games played on turf

Northwestern at Illinois, 3:30 ET
Northwestern: 21-7 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse
Illinois: 27-44 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road

Purude at Indiana, 3:30 ET
Purdue: 0-6 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3
Indiana: 13-3 ATS in home games after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game

Rutgers at Connecticut, 3:30 ET
Rutgers: 9-1 OVER as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Connecticut: 10-2 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog

Tennessee at Kentucky, 7:00 ET
Tennessee: 19-5 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Kentucky: 0-6 ATS after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8

Minnesota at Michigan State, 12:00 ET
Minnesota: 8-1 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Michigan State: 10-1 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival

Temple at Memphis, 12:00 ET
Temple: 7-1 ATS as an underdog
Memphis: 7-19 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49

BYU at Nevada, 3:00 ET
BYU: 9-1 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Nevada: 2-10 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70

Tulane at Rice, 3:00 ET
Tulane: 5-17 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Rice: 6-0 ATS off a road win

Texas AM at Missouri, 3:00 ET
Texas AM: 2-10 ATS in a road game where the total is between 63.5 and 70
Missouri: 9-2 ATS when playing on a Saturday

Virginia Tech at Virginia, 3:30 ET
Virginia Tech: 16-5 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better
Virginia: 2-10 ATS in home games after playing a conference game

Alabama at Auburn, 3:30 ET
Alabama: 7-0 UNDER as a road favorite of 10.5 to 14
Auburn: 6-0 ATS after playing a conference game

New Mexico at Boise State, 10:15 ET
New Mexico: 7-0 OVER after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses
Boise State: 19-7 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70

Baylor at TCU, 3:30 ET
Baylor: 9-2 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games
TCU: 0-7 ATS in home games against conference opponents

Kansas State at Kansas, 12:00 ET
Kansas St: 12-4 ATS against conference opponents
Kansas: 2-10 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in 2 straight games

Penn State at Wisconsin, 3:30 ET
Penn State: 13-4 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Wisconsin: 8-1 ATS in games played on turf

San Diego St at UNLV, 10:30 ET
San Diego St: 6-0 ATS in road games off a win against a conference rival
UNLV: 1-11 ATS off a road win against a conference rival

North Texas at Tulsa, 2:30 ET
North Texas: 6-1 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Tulsa: 1-7 after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games

Clemson at South Carolina, 7:00 ET
Clemson: 8-1 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6
South Carolina: 7-0 UNDER after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game

UCLA at USC, 8:00 ET
UCLA: 4-14 ATS in road games after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games
USC: 15-5 ATS in home games off 3 straight wins against conference rivals

Notre Dame at Stanford, 8:00 ET
Notre Dame: 16-36 ATS after having won 4 out of their last 5
Stanford: 17-6 ATS after a win by 28 or more points

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Saturday's games

Top 13 games

Michigan was outgained 407-158 in 24-21 (+6) loss at Iowa last week; Wolverines look slow on offense- they’ve lost eight of last nine games with Ohio State, with four of last five losses by 11+ points. Buckeyes lost last visit here when an interim coach was in charge; they’re +8 in turnovers in last four series games and have 200+ rushing yards in five of last six meetings. Ohio State’s last four wins are all by 25+ points; they’re 3-1 as road favorites, winning away games by 18-10-56-25 points, but none of those four teams will go bowling, and 70 of 128 I-A teams go bowling. Michigan lost three of last four games; they’re 5-1 at home, with only loss 17-13 to Nebraska. Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last four series games played here.

Duke is on a serious roll, winning last seven games, covering last six; after being 1-30 in last 31 November games before this year, they’re 3-0 this month. Duke is 4-1 vs spread as an underdog this year- they haven’t lost any game since September, but Blue Devils are 2-14 in last 16 games vs North Carolina, losing eight of last nine in series where underdog is 7-4 vs spread in last 11 games. Duke lost last four visits to Chapel Hill by 16-13-6-3 points, but they’re 4-0 SU on road this year, scoring 27 ppg. North Carolina became bowl eligible by whacking ODU 80-20 last week; Monarchs are moving up to I-A, so no big deal, but Tar Heels have won last five games, scoring 35 ppg in last four other than the ODU game.

Michigan State won last seven games, covered seven of last eight, five of last six when favored. State is 2-3 as home favorite this year, winning home games by 13-15-14-14-23 points. Spartans won their last three games with Minnesota by 16-7-23 points (29-14 average score), but they’re 1-7 vs spread last eight times they were favored to beat Gophers, who lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 7-23-34 points. Minnesota had won/covered four in row before losing at home to Wisconsin last week; Gophers are 3-1 vs spread on road, with two wins by FG each and 42-13 loss at Michigan. Spartans allowed total of six points in their last two home games. Overall, underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in series.

Georgia lost 4-year starting QB Murray (knee) last week, sad thing; his replacement is Hutson Mason, highly thought of but very inexperienced; Dawgs won 11 of last 12 games with Georgia Tech, winning last four by average score of 36-21 in series when Georgia won its last five visits here, by 14-6-14-7-17 points. Georgia is 1-7-1 vs spread in its last nine games, 2-3 SU on road this year, with all five games decided by 5 or less points; they’re 1-6-1 vs spread as a favorite, 0-3-1 on road. Tech beat a I-AA team last week, second one they played this year; they’re 3-1 at home to I-A teams, losing 17-10 to Va Tech. Jackets are 0-3 vs spread as an underdog this season. Favorites are 7-5 vs spread in last dozen series games.

Underdogs covered four of last five A&M-Missouri games, with Tigers winning five of last seven, but they lost 59-29 at A&M LY; this is Aggies’ first visit to Columbia since ’07, when teams were Big 12 rivals. A&M lost 40-26/45-22 in last two visits here; they had scored 41+ points in every game this year until rainy 34-10 loss at LSU last week, first time Manziel completed less than half his passes. Mizzou got QB Franklin back last week; they’ve won last three games, covered eight of last nine, with only loss in OT to South Carolina- they’ve allowed total of 30 points in last three games. Aggies allowed 33-38-34 points in winning two of previous three road games.

Alabama spanked Auburn 42-14/49-0 in two meetings since Cam Newton left; they’re 4-1 overall in rivalry that has seen favorites cover six of last eight games. Tide is 4-3 in last seven visits here, winning 26-21/42-14 in last two. Bama beat Texas A&M 49-42 back on Sept 14; since then, they’ve allowed total of 50 points in eight I-A games, going 5-3 vs spread. Tide is 1-2 as road favorite this year, winning away games by 7 at A&M, 48-7 at Kentucky, 20-7 at Miss State. Auburn has had dram season in Malzahn’s first as HC, going 10-1 with shaky passing game- they’ve scored 44.6 ppg in last five games- their only loss was 35-21 (+17) at LSU back on Sept 21. Tigers are 3-0 as underdogs, winning two of the three SU.

South Carolina won its last four games with Clemson, all by 10+ points; Tigers had won five of last six visits to Columbia, before losing 34-17/34-13 in last two visits here. Carolina outgained Clemson by 145 ypg in last four meetings. Tigers scored 43.5 ppg in winning all four of its road games this year, but they allowed 35-51 points in only two games this year that had single digit pointspread, 38-35 home win (+2.5) over Georgia in opener, 5-14 home loss (+3) to Florida State that is only blemish on this year’s record- they’ scored 51.7 ppg in three wins over I-A teams since then. Gamecocks are 5-0 SU at home this year, 2-3 as home favorites, winning by 17-10-7-18-5 points; five of their last seven I-A games were decided by 7 or less points.

USC won 12 of last 14 games with crosstown rival UCLA, but lost 38-28 in Pasadena LY; Bruins lost last seven visits to Coliseum (1-6 vs spread) by average score of 37-9. USC won/covered its last five games since losing at Notre Dame; they’re 3-2 as home favorites this year, winning in Coliseum by 28-3-7-16-3 points- they covered five of last seven games overall. UCLA is 3-3 in last six games after starting season 5-0; in their 38-33 home loss to ASU last week, Sun Devils ran ball for 232 yards, passed for 225; Bruins are 3-2 SU on road, 2-2 SU/ATS when a road dog. After scoring 10-14 points in losses at Stanford/Oregon, Bruins scored average of 37.5 ppg in last four games. UCLA is 4-2 vs spread this season when spread is single digits, USC is 4-3.

Favorites are 6-4-1 vs spread in last 11 Notre Dame-Stanford games; Cardinal won three of last four meetings, winning by 14-23-7 points. Notre Dame lost last two visits here by 7-14 points; they’ve won five of last six games since losing at home to Oklahoma, are 2-2 in true road games, winning at dismal Air Force/Purdue, losing 41-30 (+4) at Michigan, 28-21 (-3.5) at Pitt- they’re 1-2 as underdogs this year. Stanford pummeled rival Cal last week, after playing USC/Oregon the two weeks before that, so they could be little drained here; Cardinal are 6-0 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, winning on Farm by 21-14-3-14-6 points. Last week was first time in last six games Stanford scored more than 26 points- they’re 1-2 as double digit favorite this season.

Home side lost last four Arizona-ASU games; Wildcats won 31-27/20-17 in last two visits here, in series where underdog is 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine meetings and average total in last three is 64.0. Erratic Arizona had lost two games in row before drilling Oregon 42-16 (+19) last week, running ball for 304 yards, converting 11-16 on 3rd down, with +3 turnover margin- it was their first cover in three tries as an underdog in ’13. Arizona is 3-2 SU on road, losing by 18 at Washington, 7 at USC. ASU is 6-0 since losing to Notre Dame in Dallas; they’re 3-2 as home favorites this year, winning at home by 2-21-41-29-13 points- they’ve allowed 30+ points five times this year. Pac-12 home favorites are xx-xx against the spread this season.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Tuesday, November 26

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Ohio State at Michigan: What bettors need to know
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Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines (+16, 57)

Ohio State has enjoyed one of the best seasons in school history, but for the Buckeyes, no outstanding campaign can be complete without a win over Michigan. The third-ranked Buckeyes, riding the longest winning streak in the nation, visit the Wolverines on Saturday for the 110th meeting in the historic rivalry. Ohio State has won a school-record 23 consecutive games and taken nine of the last 11 meetings with Michigan, which is scuffling to the finish line this season.

The Buckeyes, who rank third in the nation in points (48.7) and eighth in points allowed (18.4), already have clinched a spot in next week's Big Ten championship game against Michigan State. Still, Ohio State knows that a loss to Michigan would ruin its national title hopes, as it currently sits third in the BCS standings, desperately needing either Alabama or Florida State to lose. "It is different. It's not just another game. It's not," Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer said, vowing to remain focused on the Wolverines. "Our players know that. ... There is an extra pep in the step."

TV: Noon ET, ABC.

LINE: The line opened with the Wolverines as 12-point home dogs and has since jumped four points to +16. The total opened at 58 and has dropped to 57.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid 30s with a 10 mph wind blowing towards the North end zone.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (11-0, 6-4-1 ATS): While quarterback Braxton Miller has generated a lot of the headlines around Columbus, the Buckeyes' running game ranks first in the Big Ten and fifth nationally with 314 yards per game. Carlos Hyde (1,064 yards, 13 TDs) is the first running back ever to rush for 1,000 yards under Meyer, while Miller is the school's all-time leading rusher among quarterbacks with 2,724 yards. Linebacker Ryan Shazier, who leads the Big Ten with 108 tackles, headlines a fierce defense that has allowed 14 points or less in three of its last four games.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (7-4, 6-5 ATS): Michigan has lost three of its last four contests, including a 24-21 defeat to Iowa last week in which Brady Hoke's team squandered a 14-point halftime lead. Still, the Wolverines' head coach remains optimistic heading into their showdown with the Buckeyes, saying earlier this week: "I am very confident that we can win, or we wouldn't play." Michigan's defense has been inconsistent this season, but Blake Countess leads the conference with five interceptions.

TRENDS:
* Ohio State is 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings.
* Ohio State is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings in Michigan.
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU loss.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Ohio State defeated Michigan 26-20 last season but still trails the all-time series 58-45-6

2. The Wolverines have ruined the Buckeyes' hopes for an undefeated season five times, the last coming when they upset a 10-0 Ohio State team in 1996.

3. Michigan WR Jeremy Gallon needs one catch to tie Steve Breaston (156) for fifth place on the school's all-time receptions list. The fifth-year senior has made at least one catch in 37 straight games.