The Bum's November's College Football POD's+Trends+Stats+News !

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 31

Game 305-306: South Florida at Houston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 70.284; Houston 100.509
Dunkel Line: Houston by 30; 59
Vegas Line: Houston by 17 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-17 1/2); Over

Game 307-308: Rice at North Texas (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 80.386; North Texas 87.648
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 7 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: North Texas by 4 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-4 1/2); Under

Game 309-310: UL-Monroe at Troy (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 73.902; Troy 72.980
Dunkel Line: UL-Monroe by 1; 64
Vegas Line: Troy by 3 1/2; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (+3 1/2); Over

Game 311-312: Arizona State at Washington State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 110.390; Washington State 88.446
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 22; 75
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 11 1/2; 71
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-11 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 10

Thursday, October 31

South Florida at Houston, 7:00 ET
S Florida: 0-7 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game
Houston: 11-3 ATS as a home favorite

Rice at North Texas, 7:30 ET
Rice: 3-14 ATS in road games after allowing 125 or less passing yards
N Texas: 12-3 ATS off 3 straight wins against conference rivals

UL - Monroe at Troy, 7:30 ET
UL Monroe: 7-0 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less
Troy: 5-14 ATS against conference opponents

Arizona State at Washington State, 10:30 ET
Arizona St: 11-3 ATS as a favorite
Washington St: 9-0 OVER after allowing 325 or more passing yards


Friday, November 1

USC at Oregon State, 9:00 ET
USC: 0-7 ATS off a home win
Oregon St: 26-10 ATS in home games in November

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10

Thursday's games

6-1 Houston is 7-0 vs spread; four of its five I-A wins came on road- its home win was 25-15 (-7) over Memphis. Cougars bounced back from first loss and waxed Rutgers in Garden State last week, 49-14 (+7)- they scored 95 points in last two games, and they were underdog both games. USF is 2-5 with all five losses by 15+; they covered both games as road dog this year, are 16-8 as road dogs since '05. Bulls' problem is offense; they haven't gazined 300+ yards yet vs a I-A team and completed 50%+ of passes in only one of seven games. AAC home favorites are 3-6 vs spread so far in conference play this season. Teams last met in '02.

6-2 Rice's only two losses are to A&M/Houston, who have a combined 12-3 record; Owls (+3) snuck out 32-31 win at North Texas in '10, after waxing Mean Green 77-20 in '08. This is 4th road game in five weeks for Rice squad that won last four games, and is already bowl eligible- they've scored 45 points in each of last two games. UNT won last three games, is 5-3 and becomes bowl eligible with win; they're 3-0 at home, including giving Ball State its only loss of year in 34-27 comeback win in Denton. Mean Green is 5-1 as home favorite under McCarney. C-USA home favorites are 3-6 vs spread in league play this year.

Underdogs covered six of last eight Troy-ULM games; Monroe is 1-4 in last five visits here, losing by 21-17-5-4 points. Losing side scored 26+ points in six of Troy's seven I-A games; they've won last three games in spite of allowing 29 ppg. Since 2010, Trojans are 2-12 as home favorites, 0-2 this year- they beat UAB by 3 in OT, USA 34-33 in only two lined home games. ULM is 4-4 but all four of its losses are by 17+ points- they're 2-2 as road dogs this year, 7-5 in last 12 such games. Home faves are 2-5 vs spread in conference games this year. Troy allowed average of 413.3 passing yards per game in their last three games.

Arizona State won eight of last nine games vs Washington State, winning five of last seven visits here- they crushed Wazzu 46-7 (-22) LY, in first matchup between Graham-Leach as Pac-12 rivals. Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in last seven series games. ASU is 5-0 at home, but lost 42-28 at Stanford (+6.5) in only true road game and also lost 37-34 (-6) to Notre Dame on neutral field in Dallas. Sun Devils scored 53+ points in four of their five wins, were held to 50-65 rushing yards in two losses. Wazzu lost three of last four games, allowing 52+ points in three losses, giving up an average of 451 passing yards. Pac-12 home underdogs are 1-8 vs spread in conference play.




NCAAF

Wednesday, October 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday's NCAAF action: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

South Florida Bulls at Houston Cougars (-17.5, 53.5)

Houston must avoid looking ahead to a pair of American Athletic Conference showdowns when they host South Florida for a Halloween clash on Thursday. The Cougars defeated Rutgers 49-14 on Saturday to remain unbeaten in the league along with No. 22 Central Florida, who they visit Nov. 9 before a trip to Louisville for a showdown with the No. 17 Cardinals.

The Bulls will test Houston’s high-octane offense, but have not scored an offensive touchdown in a school-record 12 straight quarters despite winning two of three. Freshman Mike White is expected to make his first career start, the fourth different quarterback to do so for South Florida. Freshman quarterback John O’Korn leads a Cougars offense that has averaged 42 points and almost 500 yards and Houston’s defense leads the nation in takeaways with 27.

LINE: Houston has seen a major shift in the line, up to a 17 1/2-point favorite after opening at 14. The over-under is set at 53.5.
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Bulls are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 contests after scoring 20 or fewer points in their previous game.
* Cougars are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS win.
* Under is 7-1-1 in South Florida's last nine games against teams with winning records.



UL Monroe Warhawks at Troy Trojans (-3, 59.5)

The host Trojans carry a three-game winning streak into Thursday night's showdown with the Warhawks. Senior Troy quarterback Corey Robinson leads a top-25 pass attack, having racked up 2,195 yards and 16 touchdowns through the Trojans' first eight games. They'll be in tough against a Louisiana-Monroe team that followed up a narrow victory at Texas State with a 38-10 drubbing of Georgia State.

Robinson is dominating the Sun Belt Conference to date, leading the way in passing yardage, TDs and completion percentage (70.4). The Warhawks haven't had nearly the same level of success from quarterback Kolton Browning, though the senior did throw four touchdown passes against Georgia State after missing the previous two games with a torn quad muscle many thought would sideline him for the season.

LINE: Troy has held steady as a three-point favorite. The over/under has risen from 58 1/2 to 59 1/2.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with mostly cloudy skies and wind blowing north across the length of the field at 10 mph.
TRENDS:

* Warhawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games on turf.
* Trojans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 October games.
* Over is 7-0 in Troy's last seven home games.



Rice Owls at North Texas Mean Green (-4.5, 52.5)

The visiting Owls bring one of the nation's most relentless rush attacks into Apogee Stadium for a date with Conference USA-rival North Texas. Senior running back Charles Ross leads the conference in yards per game (116.2) and is tied for first in touchdowns (six), and has racked up 319 yards and two scores in consecutive wins over New Mexico State and UTEP.

The Mean Green boast the stingiest defense in the conference, allowing just over 20 points per game. North Texas has been particularly difficult to run against, limiting teams to 125.8 yards on the ground - the third-best mark in C-USA. The Mean Green also have a robust passing offense, averaging the third-most yards through the air in the conference (258.9) thanks to the exploits of senior QB Derek Thompson (1,980 yards, 11 TDs).

LINE: North Texas opened as a three-point favorite, but the line has since risen to 4 1/2. The over/under has jumped a half-point to 52 1/2.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies and wind blowing diagonally out of the northwest at 10 mph.
TRENDS:

* Owls are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.
* Mean Green are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
* Under is 9-1 in North Texas' last 10 games on Fieldturf.



Arizona State Sun Devils at Washington State Cougars (+11.5, 71.5)

Arizona State can take another step toward being the South Division representative in the Pac-12 title game when it visits pass-happy Washington State on Saturday. The Sun Devils hold a one-game lead over three teams in the division race and are averaging 56.3 points in three conference victories. Ironically, the Cougars have allowed an average of 56.3 in their three Pac-12 defeats,

Washington State isn’t even attempting to establish a running game as Halliday is being asked to air it out. The junior set school and conference records with 557 passing yards against the Ducks but was also picked off four times. Arizona State has a versatile attack with senior running back Marion Grice leading the nation with 18 total touchdowns.

LINE: Washington State opened as a 13 1/2-point underdog, but the line has dropped to 11 1/2. The over/under has risen a point to 71 1/2.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-40s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing diagonally out of the southwest at 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Sun Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.
* Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with winning records.
* Over is 17-4 in Arizona State's last 21 games following an ATS win.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, October 31


Game Score Status Pick Amount


South Florida - 7:00 PM ET South Florida +19 500 POD # 4

Houston - Under 54 500


UL Monroe - 7:30 PM ET Troy -3.5 500 POD # 2

Troy - Under 60.5 500


Rice - 7:30 PM ET Rice +3 500 POD # 1

North Texas - Over 52.5 500


Arizona State - 10:30 PM ET Arizona State -10.5 500 POD # 3

Washington State - Under 70.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

USC at Oregon State

October 31, 2013

With their hopes of getting to the Pac-12 Championship Game at stake, Oregon State and Southern Cal will collide Friday night in Corvallis. As of early Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had the Beavers favored by four with a total of 52.5.

Gamblers can take USC (5-3 straight up, 3-5 against the spread) on the money line for a +170 return (risk $100 to win $170). For first-half wagers, Oregon State (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) is favored by three (with a -120 price tag) with a total of 26.5.

Mike Riley's squad saw its six-game winning streak snapped last Saturday night in a 20-12 home loss to Stanford as a four-point underdog. Sean Mannion's fourth-and-goal pass to Kevin Cummings from the seven was broken up in the final seconds.

USC forced four turnovers and didn't commit any in last week's 19-3 win over Utah as a five-point home favorite. Andre Heidari buried four field goals and Cody Kessler threw for 230 yards and one touchdown to pace the Trojans.

In the win over Utah, USC played without 2012 All-American WR Marquise Lee due to a knee injury. However, Lee has been upgraded to 'probable' at OSU and that's great news for a Trojans' offense that is averaging only 24.6 points per game.

Kessler has had an up-and-down campaign to date. The third-year sophomore has completed 60.7 percent of his passes for 1,560 yards with a 9/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Nelson Agholor has hauled in 30 receptions for a team-high 539 yards and three TDs.

Lee has missed two games and parts of two others, so that's obviously played a tremendous role in his lack of production. And the quality of USC's quarterback play has also been down in 2013. But still, we're talking about a guy that had 11 TD catches as a true freshman and 14 TD grabs last season. Lee has 32 receptions for 403 yards this year, but he has only been in the end zone once.

Tre Madden has rushed for a team-high 671 yards. He has three rushing scores and a 5.3 yards-per-carry average. Justin Davis had run for 361 yards and six TDs with a 6.8 YPC average, but he had to have ankle surgery last week that'll keep him out for the rest of the season.

Silas Redd, the team's leading rusher in 2012 who missed the first five games this year, has only rushed for 192 yards. Redd, the transfer from Penn State, didn't gain a yard in 10 totes vs. Utah.

Oregon State has been one-dimensional on offense all year, but that hasn't been a bad thing. Mannion leads the nation in passing yards (3,263) and TD passes (30) while only being intercepted three times. The junior signal caller has completed 69.1 percent of his throws.

Mannion has one of the country's top WRs in junior Brandin Cooks, who is tops in America in receiving yards (1,256). Cooks has 85 catches and 13 TD grabs, in addition to a pair of rushing scores.

Mannion might be without three of his popular targets against USC. Senior WR Kevin Cummings was lost for the season when he injured his wrist in the final minute against Stanford. Cummings had made 23 receptions for 254 yards and two TDs.

Also, two Oregon State tight ends are 'questionable.' Connor Hamlett, the starter with 23 catches for 198 yards and four TDs this year, missed the loss to Stanford with a knee injury. Caleb Smith (17 receptions for 229 yards and three TDs) might not be able to go this week due to back spasms.

Gamblers should also check the status of OSU junior LB D.J. Alexander, who left last week's game with a shoulder injury and is considered a question mark.

USC's defense is dealing with injuries galore. The Trojans have been without their best pass rusher Morgan Breslin for more than a month. Breslin, who had 13 sacks in 2012, remains out with a hip pointer. Starting CB Anthony Brown (arm) is out this week, while starting LB Lamar Dawson suffered a season-ending injury at practice last week. Finally, reserve safety Gerald Bowman is also out at OSU.

The 'under' is 6-2 overall for USC, 2-1 in its three road assignments. The Trojans' eight games have averaged 43.9 combined points per game.

On the flip side, the 'over' has cashed at a 5-3 overall clip for the Beavers, going 2-2 in their four outings at home. They have seen an average combined score of 67.5 PPG.

These Pac-12 adversaries haven't faced each other since 2010 when Oregon State trounced the Trojans by a 36-7 count as a three-point home underdog. The Beavers have covered the number in five of the last six head-to-head meetings and they have taken the cash in five consecutive games against USC in Corvallis. The Trojans haven't won at OSU since 2004. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

--Virginia will be trying to snap a five-game losing streak when it hosts Clemson this weekend. The Cavaliers are 3-7-1 ATS as home underdogs on Mike London's watch. The Tigers are 8-7 ATS as road favorites under Dabo Swinney.

--Temple has covered the number in four consecutive games, while Rutgers is an abysmal 1-4 ATS when favored this season. The Scarlet Knights, who lost 49-14 at home to Houston last week, are favored by 13.5 over the Owls at home.

--Northwestern star RB and special-teams dynamo Venric Mark remains 'out' for the Wildcats, as they travel to Lincoln to face an angry Nebraska squad on Saturday.

--Iowa is 9-3-1 ATS as a home underdog in its last 13 such spots going back to 2007. The Hawkeyes are catching 9.5 points Saturday vs. Wisconsin.

--Florida OT D.J. Humphries will be out for the next 2-4 weeks with a sprained MCL. The Gators are already without their other starting OT Chaz Green, who went down with a season-ending injury in September. UF might get Ronald Powell back against UGA. 'Ro-Po' was upgraded to 'probable' yesterday, but he was also 'probable' at Missouri two weeks ago and didn't even dress out.

--As for Georgia, it will get RB Todd Gurley and safety Tray Matthews back vs. UF. There's a chance one of Aaron Murray's top weapons, WR Michael Bennett, could also return. Bennett is still listed as 'questionable' with a knee injury sustained in a 34-31 overtime win at Tennessee on Oct. 5.

--The 'over' is a perfect 7-0 for Florida State The only other perfect team in terms of totals going into last week was Troy. However, the 'under' appeared for the first time in the Trojans' win over Western Ky.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, November 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
USC at Oregon State: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

USC Trojans at Oregon State Beavers (-4, 52.5)

USC’s stellar defense figures to be tested Friday against Oregon State at Reser Stadium, where the Trojans haven’t won since 2004. The Trojans held Utah to 201 total yards in a 19-3 victory last week, but weren’t facing Beavers quarterback Sean Mannion, who leads the nation in passing yards and touchdown passes. USC has been ravaged by injuries, especially to its offensive line and receiving corps, and All-American receiver Marqise Lee (knee) is expected to miss at least one more week.

Oregon State bounced back from its season-opening loss to FCS team Eastern Washington with six straight wins before yielding eight sacks in a 20-12 loss to Stanford last week. “Even though we lost, we took a top 10 team to the end,” Beavers coach Mike Riley said. “We saw a lot of good stuff out there and some stuff we have to correct. We’ll use that going forward." USC leads the all-time series 59-11-4, but Oregon State has won three of the past five meetings.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: The Beavers opened -4.5 and are now -4. The total opened at 52.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s. The threat of rain will increase as the game progresses.

ABOUT USC (5-3, 2-2 Pac-12): The Trojans dropped to 116th in the country on third-down conversions with a 27.6-percent success rate after going 3-for-15 against Utah. Andre Heidari kicked four field goals against the Utes to lead USC’s offense, which needs to see continued growth from sophomore quarterback Cody Kessler. The injury bug has impacted the entire roster, but defensive end Leonard Williams has been a constant force while leading the Trojans in tackles (54), tackles for loss (11) and sacks (five).

ABOUT OREGON STATE (6-2, 4-1): After struggling against Stanford, the Beavers' offensive line squares off against a USC squad that leads the Pac-12 in total defense and forced four Utah turnovers last week. Brandin Cooks leads the nation in receiving yards, receptions and receiving TDs, but the Beavers rank 122nd among 123 FBS teams in rushing at 66.6 yards per game. The Beavers are coming off their best defensive game of the season, and are ranked tied for fifth nationally in turnover margin and tied for sixth in interceptions.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Trojans are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Over is 9-1 in Beavers last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. USC has allowed a total of 17 points in the first quarter of its first eight games.

2. Oregon State is 56-5 since the start of the 2004 season when leading after three quarters.

3. USC has a 10-3 record in games played Nov. 1, most recently a 56-0 victory over Washington in 2008.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, November 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Southern California - 9:00 PM ET Oregon State -3.5 500 POD # 1

Oregon State - Under 52.5 500 POD # 2

[Udog]

Alright, Bum! Here we go! Let's have a great weekend! Good luck!

I got the Beavers at -4.

[Udog]

Alright, Bum! Here we go! Let's have a great weekend! Good luck!

I got the Beavers at -4.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, November 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Virginia Tech - 12:00 PM ET Boston College +4 500
Boston College - Under 40 500


Northern Illinois - 12:00 PM ET Northern Illinois -26.5 500 POD # 4
Massachusetts - Under 60 500


Temple - 12:00 PM ET Temple +12.5 500
Rutgers - Over 57.5 500


Illinois - 12:00 PM ET Penn State -11.5 500
Penn State - Under 55.5 500


Army - 12:00 PM ET Army +1 500
Air Force - Over 53 500


Wisconsin - 12:00 PM ET Wisconsin -9.5 500 POD # 3
Iowa - Under 47.5 500


Ohio State - 12:00 PM ET Ohio State -31.5 500
Purdue - Over 57.5 500


Mississippi State - 12:21 PM ET South Carolina -11.5 500
South Carolina - Over 53 500


North Carolina - 12:30 PM ET North Carolina State +4.5 500 POD # 2
North Carolina State - Over 58 500


Wake Forest - 12:30 PM ET Syracuse -4 500 POD # 1
Syracuse - Over 51.5 500


Southern Mississippi - 12:30 PM ET Marshall -32 500
Marshall - Under 56 500


Middle Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Alabama-Birmingham +3.5 500
Alabama-Birmingham - Over 63 500


Western Kentucky - 1:00 PM ET Georgia State +18.5 500
Georgia State - Over 56.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Evening Games:


Pittsburgh - 7:00 PM ET Georgia Tech -11 500 POD # 6
Georgia Tech - Under 52.5 500

Tennessee - 7:00 PM ET Missouri -10.5 500 POD # 5
Missouri - Under 55 500

Oklahoma State - 7:00 PM ET Oklahoma State -2 500 POD # 1
Texas Tech - Over 69.5 500

Eastern Michigan - 7:00 PM ET Toledo -30.5 500
Toledo - Over 66.5 500

Arkansas State - 7:30 PM ET South Alabama -3 500
South Alabama - Under 63.5 500

Colorado - 7:30 PM ET UCLA -29.5 500
UCLA - Over 59 500

New Mexico - 8:00 PM ET New Mexico +14 500
San Diego State - Over 58 500

Miami - 8:00 PM ET Florida State -21 500 P_O)D # 3
Florida State - Over 64 500

Boise State - 8:00 PM ET Colorado State +7 500 POD # 2
Colorado State - Under 59.5 500

Texas El Paso - 9:00 PM ET Texas A&M -48 500
Texas A&M - Over 77.5 500

Nevada - 10:30 PM ET Fresno State -21 500 POD # 4
Fresno State - Under 74 500

[StarDust Bum]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 10

November 3, 2013


Georgia Tech (-11 ½) 21, Pittsburgh 10: The line on this game was at -10 or -10 ½ most of the week and those that waited to back the favorite were punished with the 11-point final margin. The Yellow Jackets were up by 11 at halftime, but covering seemed unlikely and winning the game was in doubt as Pittsburgh scored early in the second half to trail by just four. Georgia Tech had a costly fumble later in the third quarter, but neither team was able to get a substantial drive going with much of the second half featuring stalled drives near midfield. Getting the ball back with about 10 minutes to go in the game, Georgia Tech put together a long clock-burning drive, surviving a fumble as the Yellow Jackets eventually put in the touchdown after 13 plays and over seven minutes off the clock. Down 11, Pittsburgh made a late charge to win for the underdog, getting the ball inside the Georgia Tech 20 in the final seconds, but an interception ended the threat and left most on the favorite victorious.

Western Kentucky (-19) 44, Georgia State 28: Western Kentucky took a 31-7 lead midway through the third quarter to sit past the heavy road favorite spread, but the Hilltoppers let Georgia State back in the game as the Panthers would score twice before the start of the fourth quarter, trailing only by 10 points. Western Kentucky brought the lead back to a comfortable 17 points early in the final frame, but had little incentive to pour it on while sitting just short of the spread. After an interception set up Western Kentucky in good field position, they were able to rush down the field to take time off the clock, eventually scoring with just over three minutes to go in the game and leading by 23 after they missed the extra point try. The favorite cover was to be short lived, however, as Georgia State managed to score, aided significantly by a pass interference penalty on a key third-down play to take the margin past the spread to just 16 points. Georgia State actually recovered the onside kick, but did not add any more points.

Kansas State (-17 ½) 41, Iowa State 7: While the final score looks like a blowout, Kansas State led just 20-0 entering the fourth quarter, just barely by the spread. For the second straight week the Wildcats did substantial scoring in the fourth quarter, adding three touchdowns in less than six minutes of game clock to pull away. Iowa State scored late to spoil the shutout, but it was far too late to catch up to the spread by then.

Middle Tennessee State (-3 ½) 24, UAB 21: The Blazers led 10-0 in this game well into the second half, but Middle Tennessee State finally finished a drive late in the third quarter to get within three points. UAB added a field goal early in the fourth to create a six-point lead, which made the underdog cover likely. A few minutes later, Middle Tennessee State hit the big play it needed with a 93-yard pass play to take the lead for the first time in the game. Momentum stayed with the Blue Raiders with a 40-yard interception return touchdown that put the margin to eight points and past the road favorite spread. UAB did not fold however, putting together a 70-yard drive that featured a big fourth down conversion and then delivering the two-point conversion to knot the game at 21-21. Getting the ball back with less than two minutes to go, Middle Tennessee State wasted no time and moved to the edge of field goal range in just a few plays against an exhausted defense. Logan Kilgore hit Marcus Henry for a 33-yard pass play, but he was down short of the end zone and UAB kicked the game winning field goal in the final seconds as the underdog held on narrowly in a wild finish.

Georgia (-3 ½) 23, Florida 20: It appeared that Georgia was going to run away with this game with a 20-0 lead early into the second quarter, but Florida proved resilient. Florida scored its first touchdown with six minutes to go in the third quarter and then later got a safety to shift momentum a bit. On the next possession, the Gators were able to find the end zone and with a successful two-point conversion, it was a three-point game early in the fourth quarter. Georgia moved to its own 39-yard line and opted to go for it on fourth and short, failing in a play that looked like it could prove very costly and open to great scrutiny. A personal foul penalty on Florida would set them back and despite being near the edge of field goal range, Florida had to punt after being sacked on third and long. Georgia had the ball back with still eight minutes to go in the game and the Bulldogs were able to impressively run out the clock with a 15-play drive. While Georgia was within the Florida 15-yard line, they did not need to add points and a push was the most common result though a win or loss could have been had on either side depending on the timing.

Florida State (-21) 41, Miami, FL 14: The big game of the week was just a seven-point game at halftime, but Florida State pulled away with a 35-14 lead going into the fourth, even with the common late week spread though many likely were sweating sitting with tickets at -21 ½ or -22. Florida State maintained control in the fourth with a big interception and two long sustained drives. While the Seminoles only added two short field goals, the defense held despite Miami threatening to score late in the game.

Wisconsin (-9) 28, Iowa 9: Iowa dominated the first half of this game, but the Badgers were able to connect on a big play late to take a 7-6 lead into the break. The Badgers led just 14-9 going into the fourth quarter and that score stood well into the final frame. The Badgers busted a big run that led to an eventual touchdown and then added another touchdown with under two minutes to go to create a misleading final in what was a tight game by most measures.

Arkansas State (+3) 17, South Alabama 16: The Jaguars led 13-7 entering the fourth quarter, but a long field goal for the Red Wolves early in the final frame cut the margin to just three points, dead even with the spread. South Alabama would settle for a short field goal after failing to get in the end zone a few minutes later to leave the door open for Arkansas State and the Red Wolves took advantage with a 75-yard touchdown drive to take the lead with about six minutes to go. Arkansas State managed six punts and a fumble on its first half possessions, but they rallied to win and held on late with two stops late in the game for a minor upset.

Florida Atlantic (-3) 34, Tulane 17: In a difficult week with head coach Carl Pelini stepping down, a flat start against division leader Tulane was not a big surprise despite strong recent play from the Florida Atlantic. The Owls trailed 17-7 at the half, but managed to tie the game by the start of the fourth quarter. With dominant defense and a few big plays, Florida Atlantic managed to pull away in the fourth quarter as they had interceptions on four consecutive Tulane possessions at one point in the second half, getting two late rushing touchdowns to double Tulane’s final score, holding the Wave to just 167 total yards in the game.

Boise State (-7) 42, Colorado State 30: After a slow start, Boise State took control in Fort Collins with some big plays to lead 42-17 with less than 10 minutes to go in the game. Colorado State moved the ball well all night and found the end zone twice in about four minutes of game clock to trim the margin to just 12 points, with one more touchdown potentially changing the spread result. Colorado State got an onside kick after the second score, but quickly threw an interception to end that threat. Boise State managed to get a few first downs, but did not burn a lot of clock with timeouts used by the Rams and they had to punt the ball back with still over two minutes to go. It did not take long for Colorado State to move into the red zone, but the Rams were stopped and the backdoor cover threat was held off.

[StarDust Bum]

Top 25 Betting Recap - Week 10

November 5, 2013

Week 10 of the 2013 NCAA football betting season is in the books, and today, we're going to be taking a look at each of the Top 25 teams in the BCS rankings and see how they did from an ATS perspective in this go around this past week.

(Results in parentheses represent SU Result-ATS Result)

1: Alabama (Bye)
The Tide are ready for their biggest challenge of the year left remaining in all likelihood against LSU.

2: Oregon (Bye)
There are a few tests that are left for the Ducks, but their biggest is the one coming up this week against Stanford.

3: Florida State (W-W vs. Miami 41-14)
The Seminoles now have their second primetime blowout win against a Top 10 team this year after destroying Miami.

4: Ohio State (W-W vs. Purdue 56-0)
OSU was up 42-0 at halftime against the Boilers and never looked back, but it really doesn't matter for as long as the teams above it keep winning.

5: Stanford (Bye)
The Cardinal have a chance to become the first one-loss team in the land to really make an impact nationally if they can beat Oregon on Thursday.

6: Baylor (Bye)
After eight straight games as 17-point favorites or greater, the Bears are finally going to get tested against Oklahoma this week.

7: Miami (L-L vs. Florida State 41-14)
It's not all over for the Hurricanes yet, as they can still win the ACC, but they are out of the National Championship chase after getting crushed by FSU.

8: Clemson (W-W vs. Virginia 59-10)
Tajh Boyd went 24-for-29 for 377 yards and three scores against the Hoos in victory.

9: Missouri (W-W vs. Tennessee 31-3)
The Tigers could have just folded after losing for the first time two weeks ago, but they came out and looked like a Top 10 team against the Vols.

10: Oklahoma (Bye)
OU already ended one undefeated team's season. It can do it again this week against Baylor.

11: Auburn (W-W vs. Arkansas 35-17)
There's no excuse not to be 10-1 and a Top 10 team by the time the team hosts Bama in the Iron Bowl.

12: Texas A&M (W-W vs. UTEP 57-7)
The Aggies didn't even score a point in the fourth quarter and still blew out the Miners.

13: LSU (Bye)
Remember the last time the Bayou Bengals stormed Tuscaloosa? Don't be shocked if it happens again!

14: South Carolina (W-W vs. Mississippi State 34-16)
A 17-0 third quarter was what really got the Gamecocks past the Bulldogs on Saturday.

15: Texas Tech (L-L vs. Oklahoma State 52-34)
The Red Raiders were undefeated two weeks ago, but they are going to end up finishing in the bottom half of the Big XII race when it's said and done.

16: Fresno State (W-L vs. Nevada 41-23)
It's another game where Fresno State posted a victory but not a cover against Nevada.

17: Northern Illinois (W-W vs. Massachusetts 63-19)
The Huskies dropped 63 on the Minutemen on Saturday, but they aren't really going anywhere in the BCS.

18: Oklahoma State (W-W vs. Texas Tech 52-34)
These Cowboys might be set to go on a bowl ban for the SI investigation, but they might get to the BCS before the NCAA can react.

19: Louisville (Bye)
The Cards were off this week, but they have got to hope that UCF loses eventually, and perhaps twice to get back into the BCS bowl game discussion.

20: UCLA (W-L vs. Colorado 45-23)
Outside of Brett Hundley, the rest of the Bruins only had a total of 70 yards against a bad Colorado team.

21: Michigan (L-L vs. Michigan State 29-6)
The Wolverines probably won't be seen in the Top 25 again this year after getting crippled by Michigan State.

22: Michigan State (W-W vs. Michigan 29-6)
The blowout win for the Spartans was big. They're clearly in the Rose Bowl chase at this point in spite of a horrid offensive season.

23: UCF (Bye)
The Knights can perhaps effectively win the AAC this week if they can knock off Houston, perhaps their biggest challengers left to the automatic BCS spot.

24: Wisconsin (W-W vs. Iowa 28-9)
The Badgers were only up 7-6 at halftime and 14-9 at the end of the first half against Iowa, but they ultimately got the job done.

25: Notre Dame (W-L vs. Navy 38-34)
A Tarean Folston TD run with 3:47 left won the game for the Golden Domers against Navy.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Wednesday's game

Ball State is 8-1, with only loss 34-27 at North Texas when they blew a 27-16 halftime lead; Cardinals are 2-1 as home favorites this year, 6-1 in last seven such games. Ball won last three games vs Central Michigan, winning by 14-4-11 points in series where favorites covered six of last eight games. Chippewas won three of last four visits to Muncie, losing 31-27 in last visit here; CMU is 1-3 as road underdog this year, 2-12 in last 14 such games. MAC home underdogs are 2-15 vs spread this year. Chippewas' last three losses are all by 21+ points.


NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 11

Central Michigan at Ball State
The 8-1 Cardinals look to take advantage of a Central Michigan team that is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games against a team with a winning record. Ball State is the pick (-20 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 24 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Ball State (-20 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 6

Game 105-106: Central Michigan at Ball State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 65.211; Ball State 89.735
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 24 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Ball State by 20 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (-20 1/2); Under


NCAAF

Wednesday, November 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Central Michigan at Ball State: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Central Michigan Chippewas at Ball State Cardinals (-20.5, 55.5)

The Ball State Cardinals face the Northern Illinois Huskies next week in a game that could very well decide who finishes atop the Mid-American Conference's West Division. But the Cardinals can't afford to look past this week's matchup as they bring their unbeaten conference mark into Wednesday night's showdown with the visiting Central Michigan Chippewas. Ball State has reeled off six consecutive wins, while Central Michigan is coming off a 38-17 loss to the Huskies.

Ball State's fortunes rest on the cannon arm of senior quarterback Keith Wenning, who is well on his way to locking up conference Player of the Year honors. Wenning leads the MAC in passing yards (2,865) and touchdowns (28), and is coming off an impressive five-TD performance in a 42-24 victory over the Akron Zips back on Oct. 26. The Chippewas will be in tough against the Cardinals' high-powered offense, having surrendered a whopping 33.4 points per game.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2
LINE: Ball State opened as a 19.5-point favorite and has since been bet up to 20.5. The total has come down from 58 to 55.5 points.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with showers expected and wind blowing north across the length of the field at 8 mph.

ABOUT CENTRAL MICHIGAN (3-5, 2-2 MAC): For Chippewas fans seeking reason for optimism, Cooper Rush has provided plenty over the past two games. The freshman quarterback struggled following an impressive three-touchdown debut Sept. 7 against New Hampshire, but has returned to form with five TD passes against just two interceptions over his previous two games. Starting running back Saylor Lavallii has racked up 388 yards over his last three games.

ABOUT BALL STATE (8-1, 5-0 MAC): A trio of receivers have benefited the most from Wenning's outstanding senior campaign. Willie Snead leads the conference in receptions (65), receiving yards (1,057) and touchdowns (10) while teammate Jordan Williams ranks second in yardage (792) and scores (seven). Senior wideout Jamill Smith has also been solid so far this season, ranking seventh in the conference with 592 receiving yards and adding four TDs.

TRENDS:

* Chippewas are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week.
* Cardinals are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS win.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Ball State's last seven games after scoring 40 or more points in their previous contest.

[StarDust Bum]

Louisville at Connecticut

November 8, 2013


LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (7-1) at CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (0-7)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Louisville -28 & 49.5
Opening Line & Total: Cardinals -27.5 & 49.5

No. 20 Louisville should be able to earn an easy SU win Friday night when it travels to winless Connecticut.

Teddy Bridgewater and Louisville have just one loss this year, falling two games ago to 14.5-point underdog UCF by a score of 38-35. The Cardinals bounced back well though, with an easy 34-3 win against South Florida for their first ATS win in their past four contests. Overall, they are 4-4 ATS this year.

Then there’s UConn, which is not only 0-7 SU this season, but also 1-6 ATS. The Huskies have given up 103 points in their past two games and are 0-4 ATS in their past four contests, dropping them to 8-20 ATS over the past three seasons. However, don't forget last year when double-digit underdog UConn shocked the world with a triple-overtime upset of Louisville. The bad news is that the Huskies haven’t won a game since that dramatic conquest.

QB Teddy Bridgewater is a one-man highlight reel for Louisville, completing 74% of his passes with an incredible 23 TD and 2 INT. He’s averaging 10.5 yards per pass attempt. He was even pretty good in last year’s loss to UConn, completing 30-of-53 passes for 331 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT.

He has three receivers with more than 400 receiving yards with DeVante Parker being his favorite red-zone target, catching a team-high 7 TD in 2013. He caught both of Bridgewater’s touchdown passes last year against the Huskies.

In the backfield, Dominique Brown (75 carries, 484 yards, 4 TD) and Senorise Perry (88 carries, 455 yards, 5 TD) split the carries. They must play a bigger role than the Cardinals rushing game did last year, when the unit was limited to a pathetic 27 yards on 28 carries.

Louisville’s rushing defense has been fantastic this year, holding foes to 2.7 YPC, while the passing defense has been nearly as dominant, keeping opposing quarterbacks to a 51.3% completion rate.

There’s no getting around how ugly the UConn offense has been this year, and it hasn’t gotten better with Tim Boyle under center. Taking the majority of the snaps the past three games, he has completed just 42.7% of his passes while not scoring a TD and throwing five picks. The Huskies may look to Casey Cochran more under center, as he has been better in limited action.

The rushing game is no better, averaging 2.4 YPC on the season. Lyle McCombs is the bright spot of the group, averaging 4.7 YPC and scoring a team-high 4 TD on the ground.

Opposing rushers have gained a modest 4.1 YPC against UConn this year, but the passing defense has yielded a whopping 8.6 yards per pass attempt and 15.3 yards per completion, meaning Teddy Bridgewater could be in for a career day.