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**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2013, 01:31 AM

Betting Recap - Week 9

October 27, 2013

Week 9 Recap

Favorites went 41-14 straight-up and 31-23-1 against the spread in Week 9

Home teams finished 31-24 SU and 24-30-1 ATS in Week 9

The 'over' went 29-26 in Week 9

Live Underdogs

We had 14 underdogs cash outright wins in Week 9, with a few notable wins listed below:

Bettors should keep Houston (+6, +175) on their radar. The Cougars suffered their first loss of the season in Week 8 at BYU (46-47) but rebounded this past Saturday with a wire-to-wire 49-14 blowout win at Rutgers. Including that cover, the Cougars are now 7-0 against the spread this season!

Duke (+12 ½, +425) upset No. 16 Virginia Tech 13-10 in Blacksburg, which was the first road win for the school over a ranked time since the Blue Devils beat Stanford in 1971.

Minnesota (+11, +380) knocked off Nebraska 34-23 at home. It was the second consecutive week that the Golden Gophers won outright as double-digit underodgs

UNLV (+ 6 ½) knocked off intrastate rival Nevada 27-22 in Reno. The Rebels own a 5-3 record and are one win away from becoming bowl eligible.

Middle Tennessee State (+9 ½, +310) outlasted Marshall on Thursday with a 51-49 shootout victory.

Down to Eight

After nine weeks, eight schools remain unbeaten and a couple of them needed late rallies this past weekend to keep their records perfect.

Alabama, Northern Illinois, Ohio State and Oregon improved to 8-0 with double-digit victories at home.

Baylor, Florida State, Fresno State and Miami, Fl. improved to 7-0 but the victories by the Bulldogs needed overtime to knock off San Diego State 35-28 while the Hurricanes barely beat Wake Forest 24-21 at home with a late touchdown.

Unbeaten No More

No. 5 Missouri was upset 27-24 at home to No. 21 South Carolina. The Tigers blew a 17-0 fourth quarter lead to the Gameocks.

No. 10 Texas Tech lost to No. 15 Oklahoma 38-30 on the road. Despite the higher ranking, the Red Raiders were listed as seven-point underdogs.

Evanston Hype

Since starting the season 4-0, Northwestern has dropped four straight games and could miss out on a bowl game. The Wildcats have failed to cover in six consecutive contests and they stand at 2-6 overall. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald always has his name connected with possible coaching openings, which makes you wonder why.

SEC Favorites Back On Top

After a topsy-turvy group of games in Week 8, favorites were the play in the SEC in Week 9. Alabama (-28), Auburn (-23), Mississippi (-41 ½) and Texas A&M (-17 ½) each covered the games at home, with only Missouri losing straight-up as a home favorite (-3).

Pac-12 Chalk Connects

In five Pac-12 conference battles, the favorite cashed in four of those contests. Washington was the only team failing to cover, as California pulled off a fourth quarter cover. The 'under' was also the rule of the day out west, with the 'under' cashing in four of the five matchups.

Big Favorites Cash in Big 12

There were five games in the Big 12, and all three double-digit favorites cashed -- Baylor (-35) 59 at Kansas 14, Oklahoma State (-13 ½) 58 at Iowa State, Kansas State (-13 ½) 35 vs. West Virginia 12

As mentioned above, Oklahoma also just barely covered their seven-point number against visiting Texas Tech, while Texas thumped Texas Christian 30-7 in Fort Worth as the only underdog to cash.

Four-Horse Race

Alabama, Florida State, Oregon and Ohio State were listed as the top four teams in the first installment of the BCS Rankings, which were released last Sunday. We asked oddsmaker Jay Kornegay of the LVH SuperBook for betting odds on potential matchups between the aforementioned quartet. As of last week, he provided the below numbers.

Alabama (-3) vs. Oregon
Alabama (-6.5) vs. Florida State
Alabama (-13.5) vs. Ohio State

Oregon (-6.5) vs. Florida State
Oregon (-17) vs. Ohio State

Ohio State vs. Florida State (-10)

Games to Watch – Week 10
(Opening Odds from CRIS)

Miami, Fl. at Florida State (-22)
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (-1 ½)
Michigan at Michigan State (-5)

VI'S handicapper Brian Edwards returns with another installment of his Top 25 Rankings. The top six spots remained the same and five of the first 10 spots are from the SEC.

VI'S Top 25

Rank School Record Prev

1 Alabama Crimson Tide 8-0 1

2 Oregon Ducks 8-0 2

3 Florida State Seminoles 7-0 3

4 Stanford Cardinal 7-1 4

5 Baylor Bears 8-0 5

6 Ohio State Buckeyes 8-0 6

7 Auburn Tigers 7-1 11

8 Texas A&M Aggies 6-2 12

9 Missouri Tigers 7-1 7

10 LSU Tigers 6-2 8

11 Wisconsin Badgers 5-2 16

12 South Carolina Gamecocks 6-2 15

13 UCLA Bruins 6-2 9

14 Michigan State Spartans 7-1 19

15 Miami, Fl. Hurricanes 7-0 10

16 Oregon State 6-2 18

17 Clemson Tigers 7-1 13

18 Oklahoma Sooners 7-1 20

19 Texas Tech Red Raiders 7-1 17

20 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 6-2 21

21 Arizona State Sun Devils 5-2 22

22 Ole Miss Rebels 5-3 23

23 UCF Knights 6-1 24

24 Louisville Cardinals 7-1 25

25 BYU Cougars 6-2 NR

**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2013, 01:33 AM

Week 9 Rewind

October 28, 2013

After Steve Spurrier revealed that Connor Shaw was ‘doubtful’ to play at Missouri and that Dylan Thompson would get the starting nod for South Carolina, I tweeted last Monday, “Something tells me Connor Shaw will find a way to get on the field at Mizzou.”

Late in the third quarter with his team trailing 17-0 and its chances to win the SEC East in his senior season growing bleaker by the minute, Spurrier turned to Shaw and asked him to come to the rescue, to turn an impossible situation into a victory and to give the 2013 Gamecocks something to play for in November.

And Shaw, one of the most underrated football players in SEC history, did all of that, delivering South Carolina one of its greatest comeback wins in school history. In doing so, Shaw has put his squad into great position to return to Atlanta for just the second time.

South Carolina needs to beat Mississippi State and Florida at home, and then hope that Missouri goes down once in its four remaining SEC contests (vs. Tennessee, at Kentucky, at Ole Miss and vs. Texas A&M). Georgia and Florida, with two SEC losses apiece, are also in the mix but neither has the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over Mizzou like South Carolina does.

Playing on one leg after injuring his knee at Tennessee the week before, in addition to suffering from flu-like symptoms that prevented him from watching the team movie Friday night and attending the walk-through Saturday morning, Shaw completed 20-of-29 passes for 201 yards and three touchdowns without an interception.

The improbable rally began when Shaw found Bruce Ellington for a six-yard scoring strike with 12:13 remaining. After another sustained drive, South Carolina settled for a 20-yard field goal to make it a one-possession game with 5:03 left.

With just 42 ticks remaining, Shaw found Nick Jones for a two-yard TD pass to pull even at 17-17. Missouri needed just four plays to go up 24-17 in the first overtime. Next, the Tigers forced the Gamecocks into a fourth-and-goal situation from the 15.

With the game and season on the line, Shaw found Ellington again for a 15-yard TD pass to knot the score at 24-24 and force a second extra session. South Carolina had the ball first in double overtime and got a 40-yard field goal from Elliot Fry.

Missouri had to settle for a 24-yard FG to force a third OT, but Andrew Baggett’s 24-yard attempt hit the left post and was no good. South Carolina won a 27-24 decision as a three-point road underdog, hooking up money-line supporters with a +130 payout. The 51 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 54-point total, although those winners had to deal with plenty of stress when the ‘over’ suddenly had life when the game went to overtime(s).

Shaw had demonstrated his toughness many times before during his career at South Carolina, but this was certainly his defining moment. He now has 14 TD passes compared to only one interception this year, in addition to three rushing TDs.

Back in September, I felt like Alabama could be had. The Crimson Tide didn’t appear nearly as dominant as it had the two previous years. But there’s no doubt that ‘Bama has vastly improved in the last month.

In the last five games, Nick Saban’s team has outscored its opponents by a combined score of 216-20. The Tide raced out to a 28-0 lead over Tennessee this past Saturday before the Vols were threatening to score just before intermission. UT quarterback Justin Worley tried to find his receiver out an out pattern, but sophomore safety Landon Collins intercepted the pass and took it back 88 yards for the score.

After leading 35-0 at halftime, Alabama cruised through the second half en route to a 45-10 win as a 28 ½-point home favorite. The 55 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 50-point total.

‘Bama has an open date before hosting LSU. LVH has installed the nation’s top-ranked team as a 12-point favorite.

Oregon found itself in a close game for the first time this year when it went to halftime tied at 14-14 with UCLA. But the Ducks scored all 28 points in the second half to capture a 42-14 win as a 23 ½-point home favorite. The 56 combined points fell ‘under’ the 75-point tally.

Marcus Mariota threw for 230 yards and one TD without an interception, improving his touchdown-to-interception ratio to 20/0. Byron Marshall rushed for a team-high 130 yards and three TDs. In his return after a four-game absence due to an ankle injury, De’Anthony Thomas produced 48 yards on 13 touches (10 rushing, three receptions) but did have a one-yard TD scamper in the first quarter.

The Ducks have an open date before venturing to Palo Alto next Thursday for a revenge game at Stanford. LVH has Oregon listed as a 10-point road ‘chalk’ vs. the Cardinal.

Florida State improved to 7-0 straight up but allowed a 42-0 halftime lead to get away in a 49-17 win over North Carolina State. The Wolfpack took the cash in backdoor fashion as a 34-point road underdog. The ‘over’ improved to 7-0 in FSU games.

Jameis Winston threw for 292 yards and three TDs. The ‘Noles will take on Miami this weekend at Doak Campbell Stadium.

Ohio State put together its best performance of the season in Saturday’s 63-14 win over Penn State as a 16 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ Braxton Miller threw three TD passes and ran for two more scores in the blowout victory.

The oddsmakers simply can’t make numbers high enough for Baylor. The Bears went into Lawrence and stroked Kansas by a 59-14 count as 34 ½-point road favorites. Bryce Petty threw for 430 yards and three TDs without an interception and also ran for a score. Petty has an 18/1 TD-INT ratio while leading his team to a 7-0 SU start and a 6-1 ATS mark.

LVH has Baylor installed as a 12-point favorite for next Thursday’s home game vs. Oklahoma.

Speaking of the Sooners, they knocked Texas Tech from the unbeaten ranks by collecting a 38-30 victory as seven-point home favorites. Blake Bell threw for 249 yards and a pair of TDs without an interception.

Miami was extremely fortunate to stay undefeated in a 24-21 come-from-behind win over Wake Forest as an enormous 26-point home favorite. Duke Johnson’s one-yard TD plunge with 53 ticks remaining provided the winning points.

The Hurricanes played from behind nearly the entire game, taking their first lead with less than six minutes left. Wake Forest senior QB Tanner Price, the school’s second all-time leading passer behind only Riley Skinner, threw for 302 yards and a pair of TDs in the losing effort. WR Michael Campanaro, who is en route to earning first-team All-ACC honors, had 10 catches for 88 yards and one TD. The Demon Deacons have covered the number in three consecutive games and the ‘under’ has cashed at a 7-1 clip for them this season.

Stanford survived a game effort from Oregon State and escaped Corvallis with a 20-12 win as a four-point road favorite. Tyler Gaffney ran for 145 yards and three TDs and the Cardinal defense stopped the Beavers on downs inside the 10 in the final minute.

Duke pulled one of the biggest Week 9 upsets when it went into Blacksburg and ended Virginia Tech’s six-game winning streak by pulling out a 13-10 triumph as a 12-point underdog. The Blue Devils’ defense intercepted Logan Thomas four times and place-kicker Ross Martin buried first-half field goals from 51 and 53 yards out.

David Cutcliffe has Duke bowl eligible for a second straight season after the school missed the postseason every year from 1994-2012. The 6-2 Blue Devils will take a four-game winning streak into back-to-back home games vs. N.C. State and Miami following this week’s open date.

Texas A&M bounced back from a crushing home loss to Auburn and smashed Vanderbilt, 56-24. The Aggies covered the spread as 17-point home favorites. Although his shoulder was clearly bothering him, Johnny Manziel threw for 305 yards and four TDs.

To round out the SEC results, Ole Miss and Auburn covered in non-conference home games, while Mississippi State let down its betting supporters in a 28-22 win over Kentucky as a 12-point favorite Thursday night in Starkville.

Troy had seen the ‘over’ cash at a 7-0 clip before Saturday’s 32-26 win at Western Kentucky as a 10 ½-point road underdog. The 58 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 63 combined points. The Trojans improved to 5-3 SU and 3-1 in Sun Belt play.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2013, 01:35 AM

NCAAF betting: SEC teams closing in on win totals

It might be hard to believe, but the NCAA season is rapidly winding down.

What better opportunity to look back at season win total and check out which teams are on the cusp and still have a legit shot of surpassing those totals?

Here is a look at three teams in the SEC that have a chance, but face some stiff competition down the stretch.

For your reference, here is a look at season win totals from 5Dimes.eu.

Texas A&M Aggies (6-2)

The Aggies were given a season win total of 9.5 and currently sport a 6-2 record with two home losses to Alabama and Auburn. A&M has four games remaining and should pick up wins at home versus versus UTEP and Mississippi State in their next two games. Closing the season will be tough with away games at LSU and at Missouri.

South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2)

Like the Aggies, the Gamecocks were given a 9.5 season win total and also own a 6-2 record. It has been an inconsistent season for Steven Spurrier's team as they can lose to a run-of-the-mill Tennessee program one week, and beat an extremely good Missouri Tigers team the next. South Carolina has four games left, but they are all at home. They'll close the season against Mississippi State, Florida, Coastal Carolina and, finally, Clemson.

Tennessee Volunteers (4-4)

Just a final pair of victories and the Volunteers will cash in for bettors that had them surpassing the 5.5 win total attached to them. It won't be easy, though. The next two games will be tough for the Volunteers as they are at Missouri in Week 10 and host Auburn the following week. They have a favorable conclusion to the season with games against Vanderbilt and a season-finale at Kentucky.
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**StarDust Bum** · 10-30-2013, 02:16 AM

4th Quarter Covers - Week 9

October 29, 2013

Glancing at the scoreboard won't tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in college football. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

Mississippi State (-12) 28, Kentucky 22: The Bulldogs led by nine entering the fourth quarter, just shy of the home favorite spread Thursday night. Kentucky punted on its first possession and it pinned Mississippi State back at the 2-yard line, the play that likely made the biggest difference in the closing result as the Bulldogs eventually had to punt the ball back leaving Kentucky in promising field position. While Kentucky had just 55 yards combined in its final three drives of the game, the field position allowed them to add a field goal, while a 13-play drive for Mississippi State finished with no points to secure the underdog cover.

Georgia Tech (-10) 35, Virginia 25: Entering the fourth quarter, the Yellow Jackets led 21-10, just narrowly past the road favorite spread. Virginia scored 15 seconds into the fourth quarter to give hope to the underdog Cavaliers for the upset, but that was muted as two minutes later, Georgia Tech had a 65-yard rushing touchdown. With the lead still at 11, both offenses faltered with an exchange of punts, but Virginia completed it next drive for a touchdown with just over three minutes to go. Down five, the Cavaliers went for two with success, a play that would prove critical to the spread result. It did not take Georgia Tech long to answer to seal the win, but the extra-point left the margin right on 10, leaving a push for most.

Clemson (-16 ½) 40, Maryland 27: Looking to get back on track after last week's disaster against Florida State, Clemson missed opportunities to pull away early with three short field goals in the first half. The Tigers did score with just nine seconds left in the half to take a 16-7 lead, but Maryland cut the lead to just three points midway through the third quarter. With another short field goal, Clemson led by six entering a fourth quarter that featured a great deal of scoring. Twice Clemson went past the spread in the fourth, leading 33-13 and later 40-20, but with nine seconds left on the clock, Maryland found the end zone to steal the cover for the underdog late.

Navy (+4 ½) 24, Pittsburgh 21: The Panthers led 13-7 at the half, and that was still the score entering the fourth quarter after both teams had a pair of empty possessions in an uneventful third quarter. Navy took a one-point lead after completing a drive early in the fourth quarter, but Pittsburgh answered and with a successful 2-point conversion, the Panthers led by seven with eight minutes to go. The pounding ground attack continued to have success for Navy however and the game was tied with less than four minutes to go after another long touchdown drive. Pittsburgh was sacked on first down on its next possession and eventually had to punt with still two-plus minutes left in the game and a poor 20-yard put set up the Midshipmen in great field position. With a suspect kicking game, Navy still had to convert a few big third down plays, but they moved well within range and had the ability to run the clock all the way down, eventually hitting a short field goal to win as time expired.

SMU (-14) 59, Temple 49: Temple led 28-7 just before halftime and 35-21 early in the third quarter, but the Mustangs scored three straight touchdowns to take a 42-35 lead a minute into the final frame. Temple answered on the next possession to tie the game and put the underdog in good position, especially with SMU having to settle for a 21-yard field goal to complete the next drive. A few minutes later, SMU had taken the lead past the spread with back-to-back touchdowns, leading 59-42 with just over two minutes to go after taking advantage of a Temple fumble. The Owls would score late to change the spread outcome back however, getting a touchdown with just over a minute left in game that featured over 1,300 yards of offense.

Arizona (-12 ½) 44, Colorado 20: With a third quarter touchdown, Colorado was within seven in this game, but the Wildcats would pull away with 17 additional points. Colorado had two late drives with significant yardage, but did not come up with any points and after struggling in the first half the Arizona offense took over, helped by a few short field set-ups.

Oregon (-23 ½) 42, UCLA 14: Well into the third quarter, it appeared that this game could provide a chance at a major upset with a tie score at 14-14 until less than three minutes to go in the third quarter. Oregon scored to lead by just seven entering the fourth, making the favorite cover seem unlikely. UCLA seemed poised to answer as they moved into Oregon territory on the next possession, but Brett Hundley was intercepted on the first play of the fourth quarter. Oregon added another touchdown a few minutes later to go up by 14 and then up 21 just a few minutes later with another quick scoring drive after a UCLA punt. Oregon got the ball back with about seven minutes to go up by 21, needing another score to cover and with eight consecutive Thomas Tyner rushes, the Ducks delivered the spread saving score to go up by 28. UCLA still had plenty of time and the Bruins moved all the way to the Oregon 24-yard line despite not running passing plays, but the clock run out on the Bruins.

Washington (-28) 41, California 17: Despite the winless ATS season for California, the Bears have looked like a team with backdoor cover potential in many weeks. They made good on that promise this week, down 31 entering the fourth and eventually getting a late touchdown on the ground, not through the air, with a 73-yard rush with five minutes to go, getting within the big spread.

Kansas State (-13) 35, West Virginia 12: The Wildcats and Mountaineers were in a low-scoring grind early in this game with West Virginia leading 9-7 at halftime and just 12-7 late in to the third quarter. The floodgates opened up from there however as Kansas State scored four touchdowns in the final 18 minutes of the game, all on substantial yardage drives and with the help of just one turnover to roar past the spread for a result that was not looking likely with Kansas State having a punt or turnover on all but one of its first nine possessions.

Florida State (-35) 49, NC State 17: In a revenge opportunity from last season, Florida State took complete control early with a 35-0 lead after the first quarter. That lead was stretched to 42-0 by halftime as the Seminoles made a strong statement about belonging near the top of the polls. With a spread that jumped nearly a touchdown from opening to close, a late NC State rally proved problematic for those on the favorite as the Wolfpack scored 10 points in the third quarter and then added another touchdown in the fourth against an uninterested Florida State squad coasting to another win. That score put the margin below all spreads at just 25 points, but Florida State would put together a late touchdown drive with reserves in the game to put the final margin at 32, ahead of the early week numbers with that late score coming with just two minutes left in the game to save the day for many on the popular Seminoles.

Oklahoma (-6 ½) 38, Texas Tech 30: The spread in this key Big XII battle dropped from an opening number of -8 and this was a good battle as Oklahoma's 21-7 lead early in the third quarter evaporated quickly with the Red Raiders taking a 24-21 lead late in the third quarter. Oklahoma answered with two consecutive touchdowns, but Texas Tech was within five after its own scoring drive, though they failed going for two with about seven minutes to go, preventing the margin falling to just three points. With the slim lead, Oklahoma put together a 53-yard drive that burned most of the clock over 12 plays, but they had to settle for a field goal to keep Texas Tech's chances at forcing overtime alive. With just over a minute to work with, the undefeated season came to an end however with a sack and three incomplete passes to end the late threat.

Iowa (-3 ½) 17, Northwestern 10: Iowa led 10-0 at halftime, but Northwestern finally seemed to get its offense back on track with successful drives on consecutive possessions, getting a touchdown on an 81-yard drive and then settling for a field goal after a 16-play drive to tie the game early in the fourth quarter. Iowa went 51 yards on its next possession, but missed on a field goal that would have put the Hawkeyes in position to win and the Wildcats in position to cover. Northwestern had some momentum and took the ball down to the Iowa 30 on the next possession, but a key 15-yard penalty pushed the Wildcats back and they fumbled on the next play. Iowa took over near midfield and moved to the edge of field goal range before getting intercepted in the final seconds. Iowa went first in overtime and scored a touchdown in just four plays while Northwestern could not answer, allowing Iowa to leave a step closer to bowl eligibility and with a very fortunate cover while one of the preseason Big Ten favorites now sits at 0-4 in conference play.

San Jose State (-10 ½) 51, Wyoming 44: This line climbed throughout the week and that timing proved critical with the seven-point final margin. Wyoming led 30-14 early in the third quarter, but the Spartans scored three touchdowns in the remainder of the third, getting a two-point conversion on the third score to lead by six entering the fourth. Wyoming eventually answered to take a one-point lead, but San Jose State added eight more with another quick strike. Wyoming tied the game with five minutes to go, but too much time was left for San Jose State and using the time well the Spartans scored with eight seconds to go.

Stanford (-4) 20, Oregon State 12: Stanford led by just four entering the fourth quarter with the margin sitting even with the closing spread. Tyler Gaffney broke a long run for the Cardinal early in the fourth quarter to put Stanford up 20-9 however. Stanford forced back-to-back punts for Oregon State, but getting the ball back with just over four minutes to go, they gave the Beavers another shot with a fumble. Oregon State could not gain yardage and had to settle for a field goal to get within eight. Stanford was not able to run out the clock however and the Beavers got the ball back in Stanford territory after a nice Brandin Cooks punt return. Sean Mannion was sacked on first down, but on second down, a pass interference penalty gave Oregon State new life. The Beavers were able to move deep into Stanford territory with a couple of quick passes, setting up 1st and goal from the seven. Four straight incomplete passes ended the threat and the late scare for those on the Cardinal.

Mississippi (-41 ½) 59, Idaho 14: Ole Miss led by just 24 late in the third quarter, but the Rebels remained aggressive on offense even with reserves in the game. Mississippi scored three more times in the game with two fourth quarter touchdowns to eventually climb past the massive spread. Idaho had come up empty on a 50-yard drive late in the third quarter and netted just five yards on two fourth quarter possessions.

South Carolina (+3) 27, Missouri 24: Missouri led 17-0 entering the fourth quarter with no points for the Gamecocks, despite four separate drives of at least 47 yards. South Carolina finally completed a drive early in the fourth quarter to get within 10, but it appeared Missouri would answer with a field goal, however the kick was missed. It did not take long for South Carolina to get back into scoring range, but despite getting to the 2-yard line, they settled for a field goal with about five minutes to go in the game, cutting the margin to just seven points. Missouri tried to run out as much clock as they could, but after a big stop on third and short, the Tigers had to punt back, giving South Carolina the ball with three minutes to go. It only took eight plays for the Gamecocks to tie the game. Missouri went first in overtime and scored on four plays and South Carolina was forced to go for it on 4th and 15 on their possession, completing the touchdown pass to extend the game. South Carolina settled for a 40-yard field goal after going nowhere in the second overtime, but that would be enough as Missouri could not find the end zone and inexplicably missed on a 24-yard field goal try to end the game.

Oklahoma State (-12 ½) 58, Iowa State 27: The yardage in this Big XII clash was far closer than the final score and it was just a 28-20 lead for the Cowboys at halftime before big plays padded the lead in the third quarter. In the span of about two minutes, Oklahoma State had a 58-yard touchdown run and a 54-yard fumble return touchdown to put the game away, leading by 25 entering the third and extending that lead in the fourth quarter. Oklahoma State only had one drive longer than 58 yards the entire game as they scored on several short drives, taking advantage of Cyclone mistakes as Iowa State played with a back-up quarterback in the second half.

Louisville (-21) 34, South Florida 3: The Cardinals bounced back from their first loss with an impressive statistical game, out-gaining South Florida 485-133, but entering the fourth quarter Louisville led by just 17. The Cardinals completed a drive to go up 24 early in the fourth and then added a 70-yard interception return touchdown to seal the cover in a game where the heavy favorite had just nine possessions.

Toledo (+3 ½) 28, Bowling Green 25: The Rockets stormed out to a 21-0 lead, but Bowling Green took control from there, eventually taking a 25-21 lead with six minutes to go in the game, just past the slight home favorite spread. Despite an over 30 minute scoring drought, Toledo made the most of its final possession with a 10-play, 70-yard drive resulting in the go-ahead touchdown with just over a minute to go in the game. The touchdown came on a 4th and nine play for Toledo, handing Bowling Green its first conference loss. The Falcons did get the ball with over a minute to go, but a sack on 2nd down hurt those prospects and Toledo held on.

Fresno State (-6) 35, San Diego State 28: As just a slight favorite on the road, the undefeated Bulldogs appeared to be in good shape after returning a fumble 78-yards for a touchdown for a second score in a two minute span early in the fourth quarter, leading by 14. San Diego State dominated the yardage in this game, scoring in just four plays to get back within seven and then got the surprise on-side kick with nine minutes to go. It took just six plays to tie the game as the Fresno State defense had another tough fourth quarter. The Aztecs forced a 3-and-out and appeared poised for the upset moving quickly into Fresno State territory, eventually converting on a fourth-down play and then managing the clock down to a final field goal attempt. The 37-yard try as time expired was blocked however. In overtime, Fresno State overcame a personal foul penalty and scored seven and then got the stop it needed on San Diego State's possession to escape with a win.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-30-2013, 02:27 AM

Tech Trends - Week 10

October 29, 2013

Thursday, Oct. 31

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SOUTH FLORIDA at HOUSTON...UH has covered first seven TY and last 9 since late 2012! Willie Taggart 14-3 last 17 as dog at WKU & USF, but lost in role last week. UH, based on team trends.

RICE at NORTH TEXAS...Both go-with teams, Rice 6-2 vs. line TY and 12-3 since mid 2012, while UNT 6-2 vs. points TY. Note Owls 9-3-1 last 13 in dog role. Rice, based on Owls' underdog numbers.

ULM at TROY...ULM only 3-6 vs. line since late 2012. But Troy just 3-12 last 15 as home chalk. Warhawks have won and covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 meetings. ULM, based on Troy negatives.

ARIZONA STATE at WASHINGTON STATE...Leach 7-2 last 9 on board, and host has covered last four meetings. ASU 2-4 last six vs. line away from Tempe. WSU, based on team and series home trends.

Friday, Nov. 1

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SOUTHERN CAL at OREGON STATE...Beavs have won SU last three hosting SC (OSU a dog each time) and have covered last covered last five in Corvallis vs. Trojans. SC no covers last ten away from Coliseum! OSU, based on team and series trends.

Saturday, Nov. 2

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CLEMSON at VIRGINIA...Mike London 5-14-3 last 22 on board. Clemson 7-2 vs. line last 8 away from Death Valley. Clemson, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at BOSTON COLLEGE...Beamer just 1-8 vs. line last nine away from Blacksburg. Eagles have covered last three outings in Chestnut Hill. Slight to BC, based on team trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at TOLEDO...Toledo had covered five straight in series prior to last season. Rockets have still won last 6 SU vs. Eagles. EMU no covers last five TY and 1-7 vs. line in 2013, now 5-15 vs. number since 2012. Eagles also 2-8 last 9 as DD dog since mid 2012. Rockets 11-5 as DD chalk since 2009 (2-0 TY). Toledo, based on team and series trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at UMASS...UMass 4-2 vs. line last six TY. But NIU won 63-0 over Minutemen LY at DeKalb. NIU only 2-3 as DD chalk TY after 6-1 mark in role LY, but Huskies have covered 8 of last 9 as visitor since early 2012. NIU, based on team trends.

KENT STATE at AKRON...Akron 2-9 vs. line last 11 as host since late 2011. Road team has covered last three in neighborhood series. Golden Flashes have covered last six as visiting favorite dating to mid 2010, and 9-3 last 12 vs. line as visitor. Kent State, based on team and series trends.

TEMPLE at RUTGERS...Owls have covered last four in 2013. 'Gers only 2-6 as home chalk for Flood since LY. Slight to Temple, based on team trends.

ILLINOIS at PENN STATE...O'Brien 8-2 vs. line last 10 at Happy Valley. Illini 0-6 as visiting dog since LY. Penn State, based on team trends.

PITTSBURGH at GEORGIA TECH...Pitt no covers last four away since late 2012. Paul Johnson 4-1 vs. line last five as host (3-1 TY), and Jackets 9-4 vs. line since mid 2012. GT, based on team trends.

WAKE FOREST at SYRACUSE...Shafer 2-0 as chalk with Cuse. Grobe has covered last 3 TY for Wake, but Deacs 7-14 last 21 as road dog, 11-19 vs. line as visitor since 2007. Slight to Cuse, based on team trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at GEORGIA STATE...GSU 5-1 vs. line last 6 TY, WKU no covers last 2 in 2013. Slight to GSU, based on recent trends.

TENNESSEE at MISSOURI...Mizzou 5-1 vs. line last 6 TY. Butch Jones teams are 7-3 as dog since 2011. Slight to UT, based on Butch Jones trends.

IOWA STATE at KANSAS STATE...Road team has covered last two in series. Snyder 9-3 vs. line at home since LY. ISU 2-1 as road dog TY, 8-5 in role since 2011. KSU, based on Snyder home mark.

SOUTHERN MISS at MARSHALL...USM now 0-19 SU since LY, 4-15 vs. line, only 1-7 vs. spread in 2013. Golden Eagles 2-8 vs. line last 10 as visitor. Herd won and covered last two in series and has covered after both previous SU losses TY. Herd 3-0 vs. line as host and laying DD TY. Marshall, based on team trends.

UTEP at TEXAS A&M...UTEP no covers last five TY and 1-6 vs. line in 2013. Miners 5-18-1 last 23 on board, and 0-3 as DD dog for Kugler in 2013 after 4-1 mark in role for Price LY. A&M, based on extended UTEP woes.

MTSU at UAB...UAB 4-10 vs. line last 13 on board since mid 2012. Surprisingly, MTSU 5-0 as visiting chalk since 2011. MTSU, based on team trends.

UTSA at TULSA...Not-so-Golden Hurricane 1-5 vs. line TY, 0-3 vs. spread as host. But Coker no covers last 3 or 4 of 5 in 2013. Coker 4-2 last six as road dog. Slight to UTSA, based on team trends.

ARMY at AIR FORCE...Army has covered two straight vs. Falcs. Ellerson has covered last four Commander-in-Chief games. Force 2-6 vs. line TY and 5-16 since 2012, also no covers last four Commander-in-Chief games. Falcs 4-15 last 19 as home chalk, too. Army, based on recent trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at TCU...Frogs 2-6 vs. line TY, 6-15-1 last 20 on board. Also 4-9 vs. spread in last 13 Big 12 games, and no covers in six tries as Big 12 host. WVU 1-7 vs. line last 8 away from Morgantown and Holgorsen could be in some trouble. Slight to WVU, based on recent TCU negatives.

GEORGIA vs. FLORIDA (at Jacksonville)...Muschamp 0-2 SU and vs. line against Dawgs as he slips deeper into trouble, even Ron Zook was 2-1 SU and vs. line against Georgia. UGa no covers last five TY and 1-6 vs. line in 2013, but Muschamp only 3-10 last 13 on board. Slight to Georgia, based on recent series trends.

ARIZONA at CAL...Not-so Golden Bears 1-7 vs. line TY, now 4-17 last 21 on board since late 2011. Sonny Dykes on personal 1-12 spread run since mid 2012 with La Tech & Cal. Cats 4-8-1 as visiting chalk since 2008 (but 2-0 in role TY at UNLV and CU). Arizona, based on Cal negatives.

MIAMI-FLA. at FLORIDA STATE...Al Golden 18-8-1 vs. line with Canes since mid 2011 and his Miami teams are 9-3-1 as dog that span. Golden teams 18-7-1 as dog at Temple & Miami since 2008. FSU has won SU last three meetings but Miami has covered both since Golden arrived. FSU 6-1-1 last 8 on board since late LY. Miami, based on Al Golden numbers.

WISCONSIN at IOWA...Gary Andersen 6-1 vs. line TY at Wiscy, 17-3 since LY at Utah State & Badgers. Kirk Ferentz Iowa teams 8-3-1 as home dog since 2003. Wisconsin, based on Andersen trends.

MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE...MSU has covered last five in series, and 5-0-1 vs. line last six against Wolverines. MSU also 4-1 SU last five meetings. Though Spartans 2-9 vs. line at East Lansing since 2012 (2-3 TY). Wolverines only 2-5 vs. line last seven as visitor. MSU, based on series trends.

OHIO STATE at PURDUE...Buckeyes no covers last two years vs. Boilermakers and have lost SU last two trips to Ross-Ade. But Purdue only 2-5 vs. line TY for Hazell and 5-12 last 17 on board since early 2012. Urban Meyer 10-2 vs. line since mid 2012. OSU, based on recent team trends.

MINNESOTA at INDIANA...Minn 1-4 as visiting dog since LY (though 1-1 in role TY), and Gophers 6-3 last 9 on board since late LY. Hoosiers only 3-7 vs. line since late 2012. Slight to Minnesota, based on team trends.

COLORADO at UCLA...Mike MacIntyre 3-4 vs. line at CU but 17-6 last 23 on board at SJSU & CU and 14-6 last 20 as dog. Bruins 6-1 laying DD for Jim Mora since LY. Slight to CU, based on MacIntyre trends.

NAVY at NOTRE DAME...Irish have won and covered last two years vs. Mids, but Navy had covered nine previous games at South Bend between 1993-2009. Mids 20-8 as visiting dog since 2006. Irish 3-6 vs. line last 9 on board since late 2012. Navy, based on extended trends.

AUBURN at ARKANSAS...Razorbacks have won and covered last 2 and 4 of last 5 in series. But Hogs 1-6 vs. line last 7 for Bielema TY. Malzhan has covered last five in 2013, and he's 14-6 vs. line since LY at Ark St & TY with Tigers. Auburn, based on current trends.

NORTHWESTERN at NEBRASKA...Cats no covers last six TY after 14-1 spread mark previous 15. NU was 5-2 as visiting dog in 2011-12. Cats have covered last two years vs. Huskers. Bo Pelini 10-3 last 13 as Lincoln chalk. Slight to Northwestern, based on extended trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at SOUTH ALABAMA...Jags 5-1 vs. line last 6 TY. Ark State no covers last six TY for new HC Harsin. USA, based on team trends.

HAWAII at UTAH STATE...Norm Chow winless SU but 7-3 vs. line last 10 since late 2012. Also 3-1 last four away. USU 5-3 vs. line TY and 16-5 since 2012. Slight to Hawaii, based on recent trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at UNLV...Old rivals from PCAA! SJSU 6-0 as road chalk since LY (1-0 for Caragher) and 19-4 vs. line since late in 2011 (4-2 for Caragher). Bobby Hauck 10-4-1 as home dog since 2010. SJSU, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE at LOUISIANA...NMSU 1-7 vs. line TY, 1-11 last 12 on board. ULL 21-11-2 vs. line under Hudspeth since 2011. ULL 4-0-1 as DD chalk since LY. Louisiana, based on team trends.

TEXAS STATE at IDAHO...Franchione 1-3 vs. line last 4 TY but 2-1 vs. line as visitor in 2013. Idaho 2-1 vs. line at home for Petrino TY but 2-6 last 8 at Kibbie Dome. Slight to Texas State, based on team trends.

NORTH CAROLINA at NC STATE...NCS had won and covered five straight in Tobacco Road series prior to LY. Heels 0-3 vs. line away TY and 1-8 last 9 away from Chapel Hill. NCS, based on extended series trends.

KANSAS at TEXAS...Charlie Weis 27-45-1 last 72 vs. line at ND & KU since mid 2005 (3-5 TY). Weis did cover vs. Mack LY. Mack 7-11 as home chalk since 2010. Slight to Texas, based on extended Weis trends.

TULANE at FAU...Owls 6-2 vs. line TY, and 14-4 last 18 on board since early 2012, but 0-2 as chalk that span. Wave 6-2 vs. line TY and 11-4 last 15 on board. FAU, based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at TEXAS TECH...Ok State has won and covered last four meetings, blowout results (66-6 & 59-21) last two. But Cowboys 2-7 vs. line last 9 as visitor. Slight to TT, based on current trends.

EAST CAROLINA at FIU...ECU only 5-12 vs. line last 17 away from Greenville under Ruffin McNeill. FIU, based on recent trends.

NEVADA at FRESNO STATE...FSU 1-7 vs. line last 8 on board, but has covered last three in series. DeRuyter still 6-3 as home chalk since LY. Pack 1-7 vs. line last 8 as visitor. Slight to FSU, based on team and series trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at SOUTH CAROLINA...MSU 1-5 as visiting dog since 2011, 4-9 last 13 on board overall since late 2012. Spurrier just 2-5 vs. line last seven TY, but SC 11-7 last 18 as home chalk. Slight to SC, based on team trends.

BOISE STATE at COLORADO STATE...CSU on 9-2 spread run since late LY. Rams 5-0 last 5 as dog. Boise 12-17 last 29 as chalk. Slight to CSU, based on recent trends.

NEW MEXICO at SAN DIEGO STATE...Lobos have covered last four meetings. Slight to UNM, based on recent series trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-30-2013, 02:29 AM

Thursday's College Action

October 29, 2013

The Thursday Night college football schedule features four nationally televised games this week for a packed Halloween night. While none of the four games will have a major impact on the national picture, they are meaningful games in the conference races. Here is a brief look at all four games to close out October and start the 10th week of the college football season.

South Florida Bulls at Houston Cougars (-17½) - (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)

While most assume that Central Florida’s upset win over Louisville two weeks ago decided the AAC title and the corresponding BCS bowl game bid, Houston made an emphatic statement last week they deserve to be in the conversation with a 49-14 win at Rutgers. Six turnovers helped the cause for Houston and the Cougars own by far the best turnover margin in the nation at +20. After this game Houston has Central Florida and Louisville in back-to-back weeks with both games on the road but for now Houston holds the top spot in the conference and has clinched a return to the postseason with a sixth win last week after going just 5-7 last season. A veteran offense was expected to be very productive this season but the defense has made great strides this season after allowing 483 yards per game last year.

South Florida has been a nationally ranked team at times in three of the last five seasons but the program has fallen on hard times lately. Skip Holtz was fired after a 3-9 season in 2012 and things started very poorly for former Western Kentucky head coach Willie Taggert with an ugly 0-4 start this season that featured losses to McNeese State and Florida Atlantic. South Florida did manage to pick up wins over Cincinnati and Connecticut but they were soundly out-gained in both of those games and the rebuilding process will take some time. The Bulls have scored just 14 points per game this season and they have had less than half the per game production on offense compared with Houston, posting just over 240 yards per game on only 4.2 yards per play. The defensive numbers compare favorably with Houston as the Cougars have been fortunate with turnovers to only allow 22 points per game on the season.

These teams have not met since 2002 but South Florida is 10-4 ATS all time when dogged by at least 17 points while going 11-6-1 ATS in the last 18 games as an underdog overall. Houston has held a very tough home field in recent years, going 21-10-1 ATS since 2008, including going 18-6-1 ATS as a home favorite in that span.

Rice Owls at North Texas Mean Green (-4½) - (FS1, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Rice went 7-6 last season with a bowl win and while many thought the Owls could take another step forward this season, contending for a Conference USA title seemed like a bit of a reach. Louisiana Tech entered the West division this season and perennial Conference USA power Tulsa looked like a threat to repeat as conference champion. At this point in the season Rice is 4-0 in conference play and they already have a big win at Tulsa. They are currently tied with Tulane on top of the West division and the Owls will be favored in the three remaining games after this week. Rice was out-gained in three games on the current five-game winning streak however and this is a challenging scheduling spot as Rice is playing a fourth road game on five weeks. Statistically Rice and North Texas have very similar numbers on both sides of the ball with Rice featuring the superior rushing attack but also a defense that is more vulnerable on the ground.

The jump from the Sun Belt to Conference USA sounds daunting but given the current make-up of the league North Texas has fit in just fine, off to a 3-1 start in conference play and at 5-3 overall. The lone loss came at Tulane in a game where the Mean Green had a 133 yard edge. North Texas enters this game coming off back-to-back road wins but similar to what can be said for Rice, the recent competition has been very weak. North Texas is 3-0 at home this season S/U and ATS and the win over Ball State looks pretty impressive at this point in the season. Despite these teams being in the same division they have not yet had a common opponent and it is not a stretch to say the winner will be in great position for the division title. Tulane has some difficult conference games remaining and has been fortunate this season so whoever wins Thursday night will have a great chance to make the conference title game.

Rice has covered in nine of the last 11 road games while winning five of the last six road contests S/U. These teams played in 2010 with Rice winning 32-31 at North Texas in a game where the Mean Green had a substantial yardage edge. North Texas is just 19-26 ATS at home since 2005 but they are 11-5 in the last 16 instances. Since 1999 North Texas is 19-14 ATS as a home favorite, including 5-2 ATS in the last seven instances and 2-0 ATS this season.

UL-Monroe Warhawks at Troy Trojans (-3) - (ESPNU, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Louisiana-Monroe lost its first Sun Belt game 31-10 at home against Western Kentucky but the Warhawks have won back-to-back games to stay relevant in the conference race. The statistics are a bit skewed for Louisiana-Monroe with losses to Baylor and Oklahoma by a 104-7 combined score taking a major toll on the numbers. The Warhawks scored a big win for the program at Wake Forest early in the season, a win that looks better as the season has played out but four times this season UL-Monroe has failed to top 14 points as consistency has been a problem. UL-Monroe is gaining just 4.8 yards per play on the season and the season goals changed dramatically with the loss of senior quarterback Kolton Browning who is remembered for his heroics in the upset over Arkansas last season. Louisiana-Lafayette leads the Sun Belt and has looked like the best team in the conference so while the winner of this game won’t be in a great position in the conference race; the loser will likely be knocked out with a second conference loss.

After winning just five games last season Troy has already reached five wins this season, currently riding a three-game winning streak entering this game off a big upset at Western Kentucky last weekend. Troy was soundly out-gained last week but this is a team that seems to play close games almost every week. Troy has four wins by seven points or less this season but two losses have also come by just seven points. Troy has only played one of the last six games on the road and the Trojans are 3-0 S/U at home this season, though just 1-2 ATS. Troy is led by senior quarterback Corey Robinson who is completing over 70 percent of his passes and the Trojans throw for 325 yards per game. The offensive statistics are far superior for the home team in this matchup but the Troy defense has struggled, allowing 6.5 yards per play and nearly 33 points per game.

These teams did not play last season but UL-Monroe won 38-10 at Troy in 2011 in the last meeting. That was a down season for the Trojans but UL-Monroe has covered in six of the last eight meetings going back to 2003. UL-Monroe is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 road games and 8-4 ATS in the last 12 games as an underdog. Troy is 42-11 S/U at home since 2003 but they are just 5-14 ATS since 2010 in home games and just 3-11 ATS as a home favorite since 2010.

Arizona State Sun Devils (-11) at Washington State Cougars - (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)

As usual the Pac-12 South has looked much weaker than the Pac-12 North and Arizona State is in a position that they have been each of the last two seasons, leading the division near the midpoint of the conference season. Despite strong starts in conference play the Sun Devils have always faded and the 3-1 start this season to lead the division by themselves will be tested with a challenging closing schedule. Arizona State’s only conference loss came at Stanford and the Sun Devils have battled through a very difficult schedule overall, splitting non-conference games with Wisconsin and Notre Dame. The statistics are impressive for the Sun Devils, out-gaining foes by nearly 160 yards per game on average with 509 yards of offense per game and good balance between the running and passing attacks. The Arizona State defense has allowed more points than last season’s average but the yardage numbers have been very good, especially against the run considering the competition faced. Arizona State is coming off back-to-back dominant home wins over Colorado and Washington but the Sun Devils have not won a single game away from home this season while going just 8-20 S/U in road games the past five plus seasons.

At 4-4 it has already been a season of improvement for Washington State in the second season behind Mike Leach as Washington State has not won more than four games in a season since 2007 and the Cougars were just 3-9 last year. With the four remaining games, topping four wins will not be easy but Washington State has two conference wins for just the second time since 2007. While getting to a bowl game is probably a stretch for Washington State the team has been far more competitive as the 6-2 ATS record can attest. Washington State gave Auburn a very close game in the opening week and the win over USC was one of the biggest wins for the program in many years. In three of the last four games Washington State has lost by at least 22 points while getting out-gained by at least 160 yards but they have faced an extremely tough schedule and the Cougars took care of business in beating California to make it clear they are no longer at the bottom of the conference. As expected this is one of the top passing offenses in the nation, throwing for 373 yards per game but the defense is allowing 440 yards per game, an average that is actually worse than last season.

Arizona State won 46-7 last season at home but as a similar favorite in Pullman in 2011 the Sun Devils lost 37-27. Washington State has covered in four of the last six meetings including three straight meetings at home. Arizona State is 2-0 ATS as a road favorite under Todd Graham however, winning both instances last season. Washington State was 2-1 ATS as a home underdog last season but they failed in 52-24 loss in the lone instance this season hosting Oregon State, though it is worth noting that game was very tight until a disastrous turnover-filled fourth quarter for the Cougars.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-30-2013, 07:52 PM

Wednesday, October 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cincinnati - 8:00 PM ET Memphis +1.5 500 POD # 1

Memphis - Over 44.5 500 POD # 2

**StarDust Bum** · 10-31-2013, 06:10 PM

Sun Devils, Cougars meet up

October 31, 2013

ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (5-2) at WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS (4-4)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona State -11.5 & 72.5
Opening Line & Total: Sun Devils -12.5 & 73

Arizona State looks to continue its offensive dominance this season and defeat Washington State, losers of the past two contests, on Thursday night.

The Sun Devils are now 3-1 in conference play due to their tremendous offensive output this year (509.1 total YPG) with their only loss coming on the road against a stout Stanford team, ranked fifth in the nation at that time. The Cougars have done well this year against lesser opponents, but have struggled mightily when facing top offenses. In their last game, Arizona State won its second straight Pac-12 contest at home, beating Washington 53-24 and scored 50+ points for the fourth time this season. Washington State had a very tough matchup in its last game when they traveled to Eugene and were beat up on by Oregon, 62-38, but did cover the enormous 40-point spread.

The Sun Devils have won 12 of the 19 games between these two teams since 1992 (10-8 ATS) including a 46-7 blowout in the Valley of the Sun last season. In that game, the Cougars managed only one rushing yard and gave up 561 yards of offense to Arizona State. Although the Sun Devils have done well straight up against Washington State in recent history, they are only 1-5 ATS in their past six games when traveling to the Cougars Stadium.

The Arizona State offense has been clicking on all cylinders this season and is now ranked 14th in the nation in total yards. Leading the team this year is QB Taylor Kelly, who after having a successful first year as a starter in 2012, has continued his success this season. With 2,236 yards passing, 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 2013, Kelly has proven that ASU has what it takes to hang with the elite Pac-12 clubs. Kelly has also added 249 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 57 attempts (4.4 YPC). The seven turnovers by Kelly is concerning, and he has thrown multiple interceptions in each loss for the Sun Devils. WR Jaelen Strong has been having one of the best starts in Arizona State history at the position and has also been gaining national attention. Strong has 45 catches this year for 685 yards (15.2 avg.) with four touchdowns. He has been very consistent for the better part of the season, having 100+ yards in five straight games during the middle part of the season.

HB Marion Grice has also been an enormous piece of the offense, both in the run game and pass game. Grice has carried the ball 111 times this year for 553 yards (5.0 YPC) and also has 302 receiving yards on 33 catches (9.2 avg.). He has made easy work of getting into the end zone, with 18 total touchdowns (12 rushing) on the year. While the ASU defense has not been great this season, it does boast one of the top defensive tackles in the country in Will Sutton (22 tackles, two sacks), who is moving up draft boards and giving opposing offenses headaches.

The Cougars sling the ball all over the field and have 470 pass attempts to only 145 carries on the season. As a result, QB Connor Halliday is ranked third in the nation in passing yards with 2,798. He has also added 18 touchdowns and an alarmingly high 17 interceptions. In the team's last game against Oregon, Halliday had a season-high 557 yards passing and 89 attempts, but also threw four interceptions. There are nine different receivers on the team that have 200+ receiving yards and eight different players have caught a touchdown.

WR Gabe Marks leads all Cougars receivers with 59 catches for 655 yards and five touchdowns. The HBs on Washington State have contributed only 58.4 yards on the ground per game this season (123rd in nation), but do have eight rushing touchdowns, including six from HB Jeremiah Laufasa. Over the Cougars' four wins this season, their defense has allowed only 9.8 points per game. Unfortunately, in Washington State's four losses, they have allowed a whopping 50.0 points per game.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-31-2013, 06:12 PM

Thursday's College Action

October 29, 2013

The Thursday Night college football schedule features four nationally televised games this week for a packed Halloween night. While none of the four games will have a major impact on the national picture, they are meaningful games in the conference races. Here is a brief look at all four games to close out October and start the 10th week of the college football season.

South Florida Bulls at Houston Cougars (-17½) - (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)

While most assume that Central Florida’s upset win over Louisville two weeks ago decided the AAC title and the corresponding BCS bowl game bid, Houston made an emphatic statement last week they deserve to be in the conversation with a 49-14 win at Rutgers. Six turnovers helped the cause for Houston and the Cougars own by far the best turnover margin in the nation at +20. After this game Houston has Central Florida and Louisville in back-to-back weeks with both games on the road but for now Houston holds the top spot in the conference and has clinched a return to the postseason with a sixth win last week after going just 5-7 last season. A veteran offense was expected to be very productive this season but the defense has made great strides this season after allowing 483 yards per game last year.

South Florida has been a nationally ranked team at times in three of the last five seasons but the program has fallen on hard times lately. Skip Holtz was fired after a 3-9 season in 2012 and things started very poorly for former Western Kentucky head coach Willie Taggert with an ugly 0-4 start this season that featured losses to McNeese State and Florida Atlantic. South Florida did manage to pick up wins over Cincinnati and Connecticut but they were soundly out-gained in both of those games and the rebuilding process will take some time. The Bulls have scored just 14 points per game this season and they have had less than half the per game production on offense compared with Houston, posting just over 240 yards per game on only 4.2 yards per play. The defensive numbers compare favorably with Houston as the Cougars have been fortunate with turnovers to only allow 22 points per game on the season.

These teams have not met since 2002 but South Florida is 10-4 ATS all time when dogged by at least 17 points while going 11-6-1 ATS in the last 18 games as an underdog overall. Houston has held a very tough home field in recent years, going 21-10-1 ATS since 2008, including going 18-6-1 ATS as a home favorite in that span.

Rice Owls at North Texas Mean Green (-4½) - (FS1, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Rice went 7-6 last season with a bowl win and while many thought the Owls could take another step forward this season, contending for a Conference USA title seemed like a bit of a reach. Louisiana Tech entered the West division this season and perennial Conference USA power Tulsa looked like a threat to repeat as conference champion. At this point in the season Rice is 4-0 in conference play and they already have a big win at Tulsa. They are currently tied with Tulane on top of the West division and the Owls will be favored in the three remaining games after this week. Rice was out-gained in three games on the current five-game winning streak however and this is a challenging scheduling spot as Rice is playing a fourth road game on five weeks. Statistically Rice and North Texas have very similar numbers on both sides of the ball with Rice featuring the superior rushing attack but also a defense that is more vulnerable on the ground.

The jump from the Sun Belt to Conference USA sounds daunting but given the current make-up of the league North Texas has fit in just fine, off to a 3-1 start in conference play and at 5-3 overall. The lone loss came at Tulane in a game where the Mean Green had a 133 yard edge. North Texas enters this game coming off back-to-back road wins but similar to what can be said for Rice, the recent competition has been very weak. North Texas is 3-0 at home this season S/U and ATS and the win over Ball State looks pretty impressive at this point in the season. Despite these teams being in the same division they have not yet had a common opponent and it is not a stretch to say the winner will be in great position for the division title. Tulane has some difficult conference games remaining and has been fortunate this season so whoever wins Thursday night will have a great chance to make the conference title game.

Rice has covered in nine of the last 11 road games while winning five of the last six road contests S/U. These teams played in 2010 with Rice winning 32-31 at North Texas in a game where the Mean Green had a substantial yardage edge. North Texas is just 19-26 ATS at home since 2005 but they are 11-5 in the last 16 instances. Since 1999 North Texas is 19-14 ATS as a home favorite, including 5-2 ATS in the last seven instances and 2-0 ATS this season.

UL-Monroe Warhawks at Troy Trojans (-3) - (ESPNU, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Louisiana-Monroe lost its first Sun Belt game 31-10 at home against Western Kentucky but the Warhawks have won back-to-back games to stay relevant in the conference race. The statistics are a bit skewed for Louisiana-Monroe with losses to Baylor and Oklahoma by a 104-7 combined score taking a major toll on the numbers. The Warhawks scored a big win for the program at Wake Forest early in the season, a win that looks better as the season has played out but four times this season UL-Monroe has failed to top 14 points as consistency has been a problem. UL-Monroe is gaining just 4.8 yards per play on the season and the season goals changed dramatically with the loss of senior quarterback Kolton Browning who is remembered for his heroics in the upset over Arkansas last season. Louisiana-Lafayette leads the Sun Belt and has looked like the best team in the conference so while the winner of this game won’t be in a great position in the conference race; the loser will likely be knocked out with a second conference loss.

After winning just five games last season Troy has already reached five wins this season, currently riding a three-game winning streak entering this game off a big upset at Western Kentucky last weekend. Troy was soundly out-gained last week but this is a team that seems to play close games almost every week. Troy has four wins by seven points or less this season but two losses have also come by just seven points. Troy has only played one of the last six games on the road and the Trojans are 3-0 S/U at home this season, though just 1-2 ATS. Troy is led by senior quarterback Corey Robinson who is completing over 70 percent of his passes and the Trojans throw for 325 yards per game. The offensive statistics are far superior for the home team in this matchup but the Troy defense has struggled, allowing 6.5 yards per play and nearly 33 points per game.

These teams did not play last season but UL-Monroe won 38-10 at Troy in 2011 in the last meeting. That was a down season for the Trojans but UL-Monroe has covered in six of the last eight meetings going back to 2003. UL-Monroe is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 road games and 8-4 ATS in the last 12 games as an underdog. Troy is 42-11 S/U at home since 2003 but they are just 5-14 ATS since 2010 in home games and just 3-11 ATS as a home favorite since 2010.

Arizona State Sun Devils (-11) at Washington State Cougars - (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)

As usual the Pac-12 South has looked much weaker than the Pac-12 North and Arizona State is in a position that they have been each of the last two seasons, leading the division near the midpoint of the conference season. Despite strong starts in conference play the Sun Devils have always faded and the 3-1 start this season to lead the division by themselves will be tested with a challenging closing schedule. Arizona State’s only conference loss came at Stanford and the Sun Devils have battled through a very difficult schedule overall, splitting non-conference games with Wisconsin and Notre Dame. The statistics are impressive for the Sun Devils, out-gaining foes by nearly 160 yards per game on average with 509 yards of offense per game and good balance between the running and passing attacks. The Arizona State defense has allowed more points than last season’s average but the yardage numbers have been very good, especially against the run considering the competition faced. Arizona State is coming off back-to-back dominant home wins over Colorado and Washington but the Sun Devils have not won a single game away from home this season while going just 8-20 S/U in road games the past five plus seasons.

At 4-4 it has already been a season of improvement for Washington State in the second season behind Mike Leach as Washington State has not won more than four games in a season since 2007 and the Cougars were just 3-9 last year. With the four remaining games, topping four wins will not be easy but Washington State has two conference wins for just the second time since 2007. While getting to a bowl game is probably a stretch for Washington State the team has been far more competitive as the 6-2 ATS record can attest. Washington State gave Auburn a very close game in the opening week and the win over USC was one of the biggest wins for the program in many years. In three of the last four games Washington State has lost by at least 22 points while getting out-gained by at least 160 yards but they have faced an extremely tough schedule and the Cougars took care of business in beating California to make it clear they are no longer at the bottom of the conference. As expected this is one of the top passing offenses in the nation, throwing for 373 yards per game but the defense is allowing 440 yards per game, an average that is actually worse than last season.

Arizona State won 46-7 last season at home but as a similar favorite in Pullman in 2011 the Sun Devils lost 37-27. Washington State has covered in four of the last six meetings including three straight meetings at home. Arizona State is 2-0 ATS as a road favorite under Todd Graham however, winning both instances last season. Washington State was 2-1 ATS as a home underdog last season but they failed in 52-24 loss in the lone instance this season hosting Oregon State, though it is worth noting that game was very tight until a disastrous turnover-filled fourth quarter for the Cougars.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-31-2013, 06:16 PM

Games to Watch - Week 10

October 30, 2013

The Week 10 college football card isn’t exactly the best we’ve seen this season, but there are some monster games looming in Week 11. And we don’t even have to wait until the weekend.

A pair of Thursday contests will go a long way toward deciding who gets invited to Pasadena, as Baylor takes on Oklahoma in Waco and Oregon ventures into Palo Alto to face Stanford. All four teams have open dates this weekend.

The LVH SuperBook in Las Vegas updates its lines for Games of the Year every week. The current number for Baylor is 12 for its home game against the Sooners, who haven’t been double-digit underdogs since losing 45-12 to Texas on Oct. 8 of 2005 when they were catching 14 ½ points. The Bears are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as double-digit favorites.

LVH has the Ducks listed as 10-point favorites at Stanford. The Cardinal suffered a huge loss earlier this week when it was determined that DE Ben Gardner is out for the season with a pectoral injury. Gardner, a two-time second-team All Pac-12 selection, was second on the team in sacks (4.5) and third in tackles for loss (7.5).

Oregon will looking to avenge a 17-14 home loss to Stanford in overtime last season that prevented it from playing for the national title. When these schools squared off last in Palo Alto, the Ducks rolled to a 53-30 win as 3.5-point road underdogs.

During David Shaw’s tenure, Stanford has only been a home underdog once. The Cardinal beat USC by a 21-14 count as a 7 ½-point home puppy last year.

You may remember that Alabama was an 11-point favorite for next week’s showdown vs. LSU last week. After smashing Tennessee 45-10 last weekend, LVH adjusted the Crimson Tide to a 12-point ‘chalk’ against the Bayou Bengals.

LSU won a 9-6 defensive struggle in overtime in its last visit to Bryant-Denny Stadium. However, that loss was avenged by Nick Saban’s squad in a 21-0 rout at the Superdome to win the 2011 BCS title. Then in Baton Rouge last season, A.J. McCarron’s screen pass to T.J. Yeldon for a touchdown in the final minute capped a 21-17 comeback win for the Tide.

LSU is still alive in the SEC West race. It needs to win out and hope that Auburn can knock off Alabama on The Plains in the Iron Bowl. In that scenario, LSU would go to the Ga. Dome by virtue of the tiebreaker advantage over ‘Bama (and potentially Texas A&M as well).

But the odds are stacked against Les Miles’s squad. Sportsbook.ag currently has Alabama as the -800 ‘chalk’ (risk $800 to win $100) to win the SEC, while LSU has 100/1 odds.

With South Carolina’s epic rally to win at Missouri in double overtime last weekend, the SEC East is wide open again. The Tigers appeared poised to essentially clinch the division in October before Connor Shaw sparked the Gamecocks to victory in comeback fashion.

Sportsbook.ag now has Missouri and South Carolina sharing the second-shortest odds to win the SEC at 8/1 (or +800). The Florida-Georgia winner will still be alive in the East. The Bulldogs have 20/1 odds to win the SEC, while UF’s number is 40/1.

Believe it or not, but Auburn controls its own destiny to get to Atlanta. Gus Malzahn’s squad wins the West if it wins out. The offshore website has AU with 12/1 odds to win the SEC.

In the Big Ten, Sportsbook.ag has Ohio State as the -300 favorite (Bet $300 to win $100). The next-shortest odds belong to Michigan St. (+300), Michigan (+500), Nebraska (+800) and Wisconsin (20/1). The Spartans can take control of the Legends Division with a win over Michigan in East Lansing this weekend.

The shortest odds to win the Pac-12 obviously belong to Oregon (-300) and Stanford (+300). The mystery is who will come out of the other division. Sportsbook.ag has Arizona St. with +600 odds, while UCLA’s future number is +700.

Let’s go back to Games of the Year from LVH now. While Bama-LSU will steal the spotlight next weekend, I love the under-the-radar showdown that’ll take place at Camp Randall. BYU is on a serious roll and will be gunning for Wisconsin. LVH has the Badgers as 10-point home favorites.

Other Games of the Year numbers listed below:

South Carolina -7 ½ vs. Florida
Nebraska -1 vs. Michigan State
LSU -5 ½ vs. Texas A&M
Oregon -27 vs. Oregon State
Ohio State -7 at Michigan
FSU -14 ½ at Florida
South Carolina -3 ½ vs. Clemson
Texas A&M -3 at Missouri
Alabama -14 at Auburn

Outside of Saturday’s showdown between Florida State and Miami, Fl. from Tallahassee, I believe bettors should keep an eye on three other conference clashes in Week 10.

Florida vs. Georgia (Jacksonville)
As of Wednesday morning, most books had Georgia (4-3 SU, 1-5-1 ATS) listed as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 47 ½. Both schools are coming off bye weeks. Florida (4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) has dropped back-to-back games at LSU (17-6) and at Missouri (36-17), while UGA is also hoping to avoid a three-game losing streak after going down vs. Mizzou (41-26) and at Vandy (31-27). The Bulldogs will get RB Todd Gurley back after a 3.5-game absence stemming from a sprained ankle suffered in the second quarter of a 44-41 home win over LSU on Sept. 28. Also, WR Michael Bennett (‘questionable’) could return and starting safety Tray Matthews has been upgraded to ‘probable.’ Bennett and Matthews were both injured in the second half of a 34-31 overtime win at Tennessee on Oct. 5. UF has lost eight players to season-ending injuries and it was down an additional pair of starting defensive linemen in the loss at Missouri. DT Damien Jacobs and DE Ronald Powell remain question marks this week and it hasn’t been easy to get accurate injury information out of Gainesville this season. UGA senior QB Aaron Murray was enjoying a monster season before many of his weapons went down with injuries, including RB Keith Marshall, WR Malcolm Mitchell and WR Justin Scott-Wesley, each of which is out for the season. But Murray still has a solid 17/6 TD-INT ratio and will welcome Gurley and possibly Bennett back this weekend. The Bulldogs had not beaten UF in back-to-back contests until the last two seasons when they won by scores of 24-20 and 17-9. The Gators committed six turnovers in last year’s encounter, including Jordan Reed’s fumble inside the UGA five in the final minute. UF third-year coach Will Muschamp is winless in six games of this rivalry, with the first four defeats coming in the early ‘90s when he played safety at UGA. Looking for a spark offensively, Florida will finally give true freshman Kelvin ‘Baby Fred’ Taylor his first career start at tailback. Taylor has looked explosive with increased playing time the last two games. The son of Fred, the Gator legend, Taylor has rushed 28 times for 172 yards and one TD, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. CBS will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

Michigan at Michigan State
As of Wednesday morning, most spots had Michigan St. (7-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) as a six-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 46. Gamblers can back the Wolverines on the money line for a +200 return (risk $100 to win $200). The Spartans have the nation’s top-ranked defense that’s giving up only 12.2 points per game. They are actually third in scoring defense but No. 1 in total ‘D’ and rushing defense. Michigan (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) is fortunate to have won six of its seven games, dodging major upsets in comeback triumphs over Akron (28-24) and UConn (24-21). Michigan is an abysmal 1-4 ATS in five games as a road underdog during Brady Hoke’s tenure. Mark Dantonio’s team had won four straight in this rivalry until dropping a 12-10 decision in Ann Arbor last season. Nevertheless, the Spartans have covered the number in five consecutive games against Michigan. Also, the ‘under’ has cashed in four straight head-to-head encounters. The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for Michigan St., but the ‘over’ is 5-2 for the Wolverines. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

Tennessee at Missouri
As of Wednesday morning, most betting shops had Missouri (7-1 SU, 6-1-1 ATS) installed as an 11 ½-point favorite with a total of 55 ½. Tennessee (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) beat a ranked team for the first time since 2009 two weeks ago when it clipped South Carolina 23-21 on a walk-off field goal from Michael Palardy. The Volunteers are 1-2 ATS in three road assignments this year under first-year coach Butch Jones. UT quarterback Justin Worley is out for the rest of the regular season with a torn ligament in his thumb. Therefore, Josh Dobbs will get his first career start against the Tigers. The true freshman made his debut in the second half of last week’s 45-10 loss at Alabama and looked decent. Dobbs made a few plays, completing 5-of-12 passes for 75 yards. He ran for 19 yards on three carries. Missouri QB James Franklin is ‘doubtful’ but is probably only two weeks away from getting back into the lineup. RB Henry Josey (head) and CB E.J. Gaines (quad) are ‘questionable.’ Gaines has missed back-to-back games. Gamblers shouldn’t concern themselves too much with Josey’s injury. Although he is Missouri’s best RB, Marcus Murphy and Russell Hansbrough are more than capable of carry the load. Gary Pinkel’s team blew a 17-0 fourth-quarter lead in last week’s 27-24 home loss to South Carolina in double overtime. Both schools have seen the ‘over’ hit at a 5-3 overall clip this year. When these teams met at Neyland Stadium last season, the Tigers captured a 51-48 win as 3 ½-point underdogs in four overtimes. ESPN will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-31-2013, 06:18 PM

Thursday, October 31

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S FLORIDA (2 - 5) at HOUSTON (6 - 1) - 10/31/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S FLORIDA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.
HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
HOUSTON is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on turf this season.
HOUSTON is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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RICE (6 - 2) at NORTH TEXAS (5 - 3) - 10/31/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RICE is 97-67 ATS (+23.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
RICE is 49-27 ATS (+19.3 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
RICE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA MONROE (4 - 4) at TROY (5 - 3) - 10/31/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA MONROE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
LA MONROE is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
TROY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA MONROE is 1-0 against the spread versus TROY over the last 3 seasons
LA MONROE is 1-0 straight up against TROY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA ST (5 - 2) at WASHINGTON ST (4 - 4) - 10/31/2013, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON ST is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON ST is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**StarDust Bum** · 10-31-2013, 06:21 PM

Thursday, October 31

7:00 PM
SOUTH FLORIDA vs. HOUSTON
South Florida is 5-15-2 ATS in its last 22 games
South Florida is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home

7:30 PM
RICE vs. NORTH TEXAS
Rice is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Rice is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games on the road
North Texas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of North Texas's last 9 games

7:30 PM
LOUISIANA-MONROE vs. TROY
Louisiana-Monroe is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 5 games on the road
Troy is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Louisiana-Monroe
Troy is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

10:30 PM
ARIZONA STATE vs. WASHINGTON STATE
Arizona State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Washington State
Arizona State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington State's last 6 games
Washington State is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games

**StarDust Bum** · 10-31-2013, 06:23 PM

College football line watch: Jump on Canes later in the week

Spread to bet now

San Jose State Spartans (-3) at UNLV Rebels

The latest confirmation that money moves are nothing to fear came last Saturday in the Mountain West, when the sharp money pushed San Jose State from a 7 to as high as an 11-point favorite in the 36 hours prior to kickoff of last Saturday’s game against Wyoming.

Charting such moves throughout the years indicates that this money rush to one side has no greater chance of success than any other game on the weekly card.

In fact, those with working knowledge of the Mountain West were a bit surprised to see last week’s move in Cowboys-Spartans, which was either an overreaction to Wyo’s ugly loss to rival Colorado State the previous week, or the sharp money simply continuing to invest in San Jose, which has mostly continued its recent pointspread prowess for new head coach Ron Caragher.

Fundamentally, however, there was little to separate the teams. Wyo jumped out to a quick 16-0 lead before San Jose began to chip away.

The Cowboys’ defensive deficiencies were eventually exposed in the second half after Wyo had extended its lead to 30-14 early in the 3rd quarter. The contest would become a back-and-forth affair. San Jose only held the lead for a few minutes of actual playing time and never extended the margin beyond seven points, the last time on a game-winning TD run by QB David Fales with just eight seconds remaining.

Those who kept pounding the Spartan side at the sports books would end up losing their wagers, as any late-week support for Wyo was rewarded with a win.

We mention all of this, however, because there is obviously some pro-San Jose sentiment among the money crowd that can actually move numbers. The Spartans still look like a go-with team, especially with HC Caragher now adjusting the offense back to its predominant spread looks that proved such a benefit to QB Fales last season. Fales has responded with 11 TD passes in his last three games, all SJSU wins.

As for UNLV, we still believe it is unlikely that any rush of support is due the Rebels despite their 5-3 straight-up mark that has them one win from bowl eligibility for the first time since 2000.

Though not taking anything away from UNLV’s accomplishments, and noting that a team can only play the foes placed in front of it, the Rebel victim list is still hardly a BCS lineup of foes. Faced with even modest opposition this season, UNLV has been overwhelmed. And San Jose seems closer to the Arizona and Minnesota sides that routed UNLV in September than the succession of weaklings the Rebs have beaten (mostly in hair-raising fashion) over the last month.

Money moves have a way of following the same teams, and we would not be surprised to see another round of San Jose support later this week driving the number up to near a full TD for Saturday’s game at Sam Boyd Stadium.

A bit of shopping early in the week should still be able to net Spartan backers a -3 price, which will look a lot better than what San Jose supporters might have to pay later in the week. Even 3.5, while beyond a key number, will eventually look like a good price for Spartan backers.

Spread to wait on

Miami Hurricanes (+21.5) at Florida State Seminoles

It was all one-way traffic last week at the Las Vegas sports books involving Florida State, as the Noles steadily rose from 29 to as much as 35-point favorites for the game vs. NC State.

Depending upon where one made an investment last week, FSU was either a winner or loser (or perhaps a “push”) against the number as the final score landed 49-17 in the Noles’ favor.

What is not lost upon the masses, however, is that the Wolfpack can be flattered by that scoreline, as FSU called off the dogs in the first half after racing to a 35-0 lead. If so inclined , it looked like the Noles could have scored 70 or more points.

Moreover, a 'public' side such as FSU does not necessarily need the sharp money to inflate a spread. The wagering masses and weekend participators are still likely to be in love with the Noles and will create buy pressure as the week progresses for Saturday’s ACC showdown at Doak Campbell Stadium vs. downstate Miami.

Still fresh in the memory of the masses, as it certainly was last week, was FSU’s recent 51-14 destruction of Clemson, which could contribute to another non-stop ascent of this number vs. the Canes as it did vs. the Wolfpack.

Meanwhile, Hurricane backers have likely been burned the past few weeks by Miami, which has been fortunate to escape with straight-up wins, much less spread covers, the past two weeks vs. modest ACC opposition (North Carolina and Wake Forest). And considering FSU’s 40 ppg win margin this season, you can guess which team has been scoring more style points with the masses.

There are fundamental arguments to support a case for the Canes this week, but we’re not here to make that argument, rather to just alert on where we see the line moving this week. And with the public still likely to be enamored with FSU, and sour on Miami, we expect this number to rise, though perhaps not quite as dramatically as did Noles-Wolfpack last week.

No surprise, then, if patient Hurricane backers are rewarded with a few extra points later in the week. Expect buy pressure on FSU to push this price close to the next “key number” up the chain at 24 sometime later in the week.

While Miami supporters already might believe they are getting good value on the current price, they could have a few more points of cushion later in the week.

Total to watch

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Toledo Rockets

As we have mentioned many times on these pages this season, the oddsmakers are nobody’s fool. And one thing they loathe is to continue getting beaten by the same proposition each week.

At a certain point, they can be expected to adjust spreads and totals high (or low) enough so they can at least have a better chance to split some of the action and prevent one-way traffic in the weekly numbers.

It’s beneath the surface, however, where oddsmakers have to really do their homework, and where a lowly side like Eastern Michigan can cause many a sleepless night in sports book offices.

It’s not just that the Eagles are so bad, destroyed every week and not able to hang within already-inflated imposts. But EMU’s degree of awful is also at the root of a recurring totals trend that oddsmakers are going to want to alleviate if possible in the coming weeks.

Simply, the Eagle defense is so bad (allowing 50 points or more in four of the past five games) that it is creating Over dynamics almost by itself each week.

While Mid-American Conference games, and especially totals involving its matchups, are rarely the marquee matchups of any given Saturday (or midweek night in the MAC), such trends are worrisome to bookmakers nonetheless.

Thus, we have seen some pre-emptive moves by the oddsmakers involving EMU trends, as the initial total on last week’s game vs. Northern Illinois was an aggressive 65.5 or 66, depending upon the outlet.

No matter, there was still buy pressure on the Over for Eagles-Huskies, pushing the total to 68 at most outlets before kickoff. The final result cruised over by a comfy margin in NIU’s 59-20 romp.

Despite the oddsmaker adjustment, the Eagle scorecard this season now favors Overs by a 7-1 margin, one of the nation’s most-pronounced totals trends. This week’s foe, Toledo, has routinely blasted EMU (as Rockets are designed to do, we suppose), scoring 41 or more in the last six series meetings, and 52 or more three of those last six (including 52 and 54-point bombs the past two seasons).

We are curious to see how high the oddsmakers might price the EMU-Toledo total later this week as a reverse-Baylor effect (no defense as opposed to high-scoring offense) comes into play with the Eagles.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-31-2013, 06:24 PM

NCAAF betting: Pac-12 teams closing in on win totals

The college football season is in the homestretch, so what better opportunity to look back at season win total and check out which teams are on the cusp and still have a legit shot of surpassing those totals?

Here is a look at three bubble teams in the Pac-12 that have a chance, but could have season win bettors sweating out the last few weeks.

For your reference, here is a look at season win totals from 5Dimes.eu.

Stanford Cardinal (7-2)

The Cardinal were tagged with a 9.5 win total and need three more wins to cash in for bettors that had the over. Things will get interesting depending on the result of their meeting with Oregon on Nov. 7. After that matchup, they travel to USC and close the season as hosts for Cal and, finally, Notre Dame.

Oregon State Beavers (6-2)

The No. 1 passing team in the nation has six wins, and was set with 8.5 prior to the season starting. The Ducks could end up playing a role as the two Beaver State rivals close the season on Nov. 29. Prior to that, State hosts USC and Washington, but travel to Arizona State in between.

Washington Huskies (5-3)

The Huskies were tabbed with a 7.5 win total and have five already. Their next matchup, on Nov. 9, should be win as they host the lowly Colorado Buffaloes. The Huskies' final three games could prove to be nail-biting time for bettors who took the Over 7.5. The have two tough road games, at UCLA and at Oregon State, before closing their schedule against in-state rivals Washington State.

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