Announcement

**Udog** · 10-23-2013, 10:16 PM

NFL odds: Week 8 opening line report: Rams big dogs without Bradford

Quarterbacks seem to be dropping like flies these days, and you can add St. Louis Rams passer Sam Bradford to that growing list.

The Rams, who fell 30-15 to Carolina Sunday, announced that Bradford would miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL, leaving the offense in the hands of backup Kellen Clemens.

Oddsmakers opened St. Louis as a 10-point home underdog hosting the Seattle Seahawks Monday night and quickly took action on the road team, jumping up as high as St. Louis +11.

“One of the bigger moves so far,” Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag tells Covers. “Bradford is done for the season, but we’re not sure how much of a downgrade Kellen Clemens is. Definitely worth a point less.”

Stewart says sharps love double-digit NFL underdogs – especially at home – and does expect some action to come back on the Rams as this spread gets higher and higher. The public has been in love with Seattle all season and will keep betting the Seahawks right until kickoff.

“It's a brutal Monday Night Football game for us to book because parlays, teasers and pretty much 75 percent of the straight action is going to be on the Seahawks,” says Stewart. “Needing this Rams team in this stand alone game is already giving me an ulcer.”

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5)

The Patriots are coming off a crushing overtime loss to the rival Jets Sunday, giving up an extra crack at the game-winning field goal due to a controversial call - Rule 9, Section 1, Article 3. New England opened as a 6.5-point home favorite, hosting Miami Sunday.

“We were debating 6.5 and seven, and instead of opening on that key number -7, we opened at -6.5 and put some added juice on the favorite,” says Stewart. “(New England head coach Bill) Belichick is great SU and ATS off a loss, but this Patriots team isn't as good as years past. Lots of holes on defense.”

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3)

The Cowboys continue to be the big breadwinner this season, boosting their ATS mark to 6-1 after a solid performance against Philadelphia Sunday. However, books have their eye on Dallas heading into Week 8, and have tabbed the Lions as 3-point home chalk. Detroit is 1-2 in its last three games, coming off a loss to Cincinnati in Week 7.

“The Lions opened -3 because the spot for Cowboys is awful,” says Stewart. “They're off two key divisional wins as well as playing the second of back-to-back road games. Throw in all their injury issues and I believe the sharps will back the Lions here. But the public is already pounding ‘America's Team’."

**Udog** · 10-23-2013, 10:16 PM

NFL line watch: Keep tabs on Skins-Broncos spread, total

Spread to bet now

Washington Redskins (+14) at Denver Broncos

This line opened at +14, but is dropping. There are some 13.5s on the board and 13s as well. If you're planning on getting down on Washington in this matchup, you may want to jump on board right now.

The reason this line is moving is obvious: The public finally saw the Broncos lose and that Peyton Manning is in fact a human. Denver's prolific offense has clearly helped in masking a suspect defense, but that veil has now unquestionably been lifted.

After dropping 45 on the Bears, bettors are likely to continue to hammer the visitors as the week wares on.

Spread to wait on

San Francisco 49ers (-17.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The 49ers arrived in England for their game with the Jaguars Monday. This lined opened at -17.5, but has already started to drop, with 17s and 16.5s making an appearance now as well. If you're planning on wagering on San Francisco this Sunday, you may want to wait a bit closer to kickoff.

The one area were the Jaguars have actually been decent is on the road, going 1-3 ATS away from friendly confines compared to 0-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd. Jacksonville has totaled 39 points in its last two road contests, at St. Louis and Denver respectively.

Travel across the pond is a factor that must always be taken into account. The bottom line though is that it's a detriment for both teams. If you're a situational handicapper, it's pretty obvious why both the public and the sharps are jumping on this sky-high number for the Jags.

This sets up as a classic lookahead/let down spot for the 49ers, who will enjoy their bye after lowly Jacksonville.

Total to watch

Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos (56.5)

If you're planning on playing the Under, consider grabbing the line now. As of writing, there are still some 56.5s on the board, but 55.5 predominates. At some point in the season, the Broncos will need their defense to step up and win a game for them. Here's the perfect opponent.

The Redskins are coming off a 45-41 shootout over the Bears last week but have gone 1-2 O/U on the road this year. Both the sharps and the public saw Manning struggle at times last week and must now finally believe the veteran is slowing down after his manic start to the season.

**Udog** · 10-23-2013, 10:17 PM

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

The NFL Week 8 odds have been on the board for a few days now, and early action has already dictated some major moves.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders – Open: +3, Move: +2.5

The Steelers seem to have it figured out, winning back-to-back games after starting the season 0-4. However, early action has faded Pittsburgh traveling across the country to Oakland in Week 8, pushing this spread below the key number of a field goal.

There are numerous injuries to the Steelers coming off a hard-fought game against rival Baltimore, but despite the move to 2.5, Steelers money is outnumbering Raiders action 2/1.

“It's a tough road game for Pittsburgh but they get the nod on odds as they have the more solid setup, and the QB edge,” Black tells Covers. “As long as Dick LeBeau runs the defense, they will always be tough to score against for a young quarterback like Pryor.”

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -9.5, Move: -7, Move: -8

The Cleveland Browns drew the early action against a Chiefs squad that isn’t as good as its undefeated record would lead you to believe, trimming the opening line as many as 2.5 points at some books. Then, Cleveland announced it would go with veteran Jason Campbell under center, tacking a point on the spread.

“The line looks a tad light for a 3-4 team that’s struggling and going to Arrowhead Stadium. However, this game more about defense than offense,” says Black. “Kansas City undefeated, but lighting up scoreboards on offense is not their forte. Shutting down other offenses and being effective enough on offense is. Cleveland may have their own struggles scoring, but the defense has been the bright spot.”

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: -6.5, Move: -7

Are the Jets destined for a letdown after their controversial overtime win against New England? Some books have moved to a touchdown with this spread. Cincinnati stumbled a bit to start the year but has strung together three straight wins. However, books are wondering how much of a hole the injury to star CB Leon Hall will leave.

“Maybe the 6.5 looks good on New York for some,” says Black. “Action so far is split, but there are more siding with the points than the Cincy cover at about a 2/1 clip so far. The bulk of money is still to come and we will see Cincinnati action as the week goes on.”

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings – Open: +9.5, Move: +10, Move: +9

The Packers limp into this NFC North rivalry without many of Aaron Rodgers’ top targets. James Jones, Jermichael Finley, and Randall Cobb are all out with injuries.

The Vikings, on the other hand, looked terrible under new QB Josh Freeman in a loss to New York on Monday Night Football. Freeman reportedly suffered a head injury, leaving Christian Ponder as the likely Week 8 starter. Action on Green Bay is eclipsing money on Minnesota at a 3/1 rate.

“Green Bay has lost some very good receivers, but running back Eddie Lacy is giving Aaron Rodgers a solid run game the last three games to balance the attack,” says Black.

**Udog** · 10-23-2013, 10:17 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 8

Carolina at Tampa Bay
The Panthers look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games versus a team with a losing record. Carolina is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-6). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 24

Game 103-104: Carolina at Tampa Bay (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 135.650; Tampa Bay 126.552
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 9; 37
Vegas Line: Carolina by 6; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-6); Under

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 27

Game 209-210: San Francisco at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 133.619; Jacksonville 119.470
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 14; 45
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 17; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+17); Over

Game 211-212: Dallas at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 136.883; Detroit 134.751
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 2; 55
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3; 51
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Over

Game 213-214: NY Giants at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 120.995; Philadelphia 132.986
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 12; 47
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 5 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-5 1/2); Under

Game 215-216: Cleveland at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 134.111; Kansas City 138.816
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 4 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 7 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+7 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Buffalo at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.385; New Orleans 143.703
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 15 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 11 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-11 1/2); Over

Game 219-220: Miami at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 130.863; New England 141.125
Dunkel Line: New England by 10 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: New England by 6 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2); Under

Game 221-222: NY Jets at Cincinnati (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 129.905; Cincinnati 133.394
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+6 1/2); Over

Game 223-224: Pittsburgh at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 131.150; Oakland 126.352
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5; 37
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-2 1/2); Under

Game 225-226: Washington at Denver (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 126.807; Denver 147.553
Dunkel Line: Denver by 20 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Denver by 12 1/2; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-12 1/2); Over

Game 227-228: Atlanta at Arizona (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 132.546; Arizona 130.773
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 41
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2 1/2); Under

Game 229-230: Green Bay at Minnesota (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.021; Minnesota 130.329
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 9; 47
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+9); Over

MONDAY, OCTOBER 28

Game 231-232: Seattle at St. Louis (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 138.973; St. Louis 125.491
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 13 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Seattle by 10 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 10-23-2013, 10:18 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 8

Thursday, October 24

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (3 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 6) - 10/24/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 68-38 ATS (+26.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, October 27

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 2) vs. JACKSONVILLE (0 - 7) - 10/27/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (4 - 3) at DETROIT (4 - 3) - 10/27/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (1 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 4) - 10/27/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (3 - 4) at KANSAS CITY (7 - 0) - 10/27/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (3 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 1) - 10/27/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-41 ATS (-24.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (3 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 2) - 10/27/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 154-117 ATS (+25.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (4 - 3) at CINCINNATI (5 - 2) - 10/27/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 113-146 ATS (-47.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (2 - 4) at OAKLAND (2 - 4) - 10/27/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against AFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 58-33 ATS (+21.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 36-67 ATS (-37.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-66 ATS (-42.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (2 - 4) at DENVER (6 - 1) - 10/27/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (2 - 4) at ARIZONA (3 - 4) - 10/27/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
ATLANTA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.
ATLANTA is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (4 - 2) at MINNESOTA (1 - 5) - 10/27/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, October 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (6 - 1) at ST LOUIS (3 - 4) - 10/28/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 55-81 ATS (-34.1 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 28-52 ATS (-29.2 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 24-43 ATS (-23.3 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 131-167 ATS (-52.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 131-167 ATS (-52.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 94-131 ATS (-50.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 47-69 ATS (-28.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-23-2013, 10:18 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 8

Thursday, October 24

Carolina at Tampa Bay, 8:25 ET
Carolina: 12-3 ATS after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half
Tampa Bay: 3-11 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses

Sunday, October 27

San Francisco at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 20-8 ATS in games played on a grass field
Jacksonville: 5-16 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Dallas at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 8-26 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive unders
Detroit: 11-3 OVER as a favorite

NY Giants at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
NY Giants: 32-12 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Philadelphia: 0-6 ATS off a home loss by 10 or more points

Cleveland at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 0-6 ATS in road games in weeks 5 through 9
Kansas City: 13-4 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Buffalo at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 0-6 ATS off a upset win as an underdog
New Orleans: 19-8 ATS in games played on turf

Miami at New England, 1:00 ET
Miami: 2-11 ATS off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite
New England: 11-2 ATS off a division game

NY Jets at Cincinnati, 4:05 ET
NY Jets: 1-9 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Cincinnati: 12-2 ATS after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game

Pittsburgh at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Pittsburgh: 58-33 ATS in weeks 5 through 9
Oakland: 7-21 ATS in home games off a road loss against a division rival

Washington at Denver, 4:25 ET
Washington: 14-3 ATS in road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game
Denver: 0-7 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in 4 straight games

Atlanta at Arizona, 4:25 ET
Atlanta: 31-50 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game
Arizona: 20-7 ATS in home games off a home loss

Green Bay at Minnesota, 8:30 ET
Green Bay: 12-2 ATS versus division opponents
Minnesota: 55-34 OVER in weeks 5 through 9

Monday, October 28

Seattle at St Louis, 8:40 ET
Seattle: 16-4 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
St Louis: 30-51 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game

**Udog** · 10-23-2013, 10:19 PM

NFL

Week 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 24

8:25 PM
CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY
Carolina is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home

Sunday, October 27

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the NY Giants last 14 games on the road
Philadelphia is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 11 of San Francisco's last 14 games
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. NEW ENGLAND
Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Miami's last 19 games on the road
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Miami

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Dallas

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. KANSAS CITY
Cleveland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games

4:05 PM
NY JETS vs. CINCINNATI
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games at home
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

4:05 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games
Oakland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games at home

4:25 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

4:25 PM
ATLANTA vs. ARIZONA
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

Monday, October 28

8:40 PM
SEATTLE vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
Seattle is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 7 of St. Louis's last 8 games at home

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-23-2013, 10:19 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Thursday's game

Panthers (3-3) @ Buccaneers (0-6)—Carolina has yet to allow first half TD, outscoring foes 68-17 before halftime this season; their three wins are by average score of 34-8, but their only win in three road games was 35-10 at dysfunctional Minnesota. Panthers picked off pass on opponents’ first series in each of last three games, scoring defensive TD on first play last week against Rams. Winless Bucs are 1-5 vs spread, losing home games by 2-3-11 points; since ’09, Tampa is 4-13-1 as home underdogs. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread so far this season. Bucs won four of last six series games, winning 16-10/27-21 in LY’s meetings, but Carolina is 7-3 in last ten visits here, albeit 1-2 in last three. In their last five games, Panthers have three TDs/FG on their first drive of second half, so they’re making solid halftime adjustments. Rookie QB Glennon is 0-3 as a starter, but they’ve scored 17.7 ppg in his three starts, compared to 11.3 in Freeman’s starts. Oddity: Bucs have been even in turnovers every game this season.

**Udog** · 10-23-2013, 10:19 PM

NFL

Thursday, October 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football betting: Panthers at Buccaneers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5, 40.5)

Cam Newton has been overshadowed by the highly publicized quarterback class of 2012, but he has the Carolina Panthers at .500 for the first time in his three-year tenure as they prepare to visit the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night. The Panthers have won three of four and a victory Thursday would give them them a winning record, something that hasn't occurred since the end of the 2008 season. Tampa Bay posted a pair of six-point wins over Carolina last season.

An already-bleak season took another turn for the worse for the Buccaneers on Monday when it was revealed that second-year running back Doug Martin suffered a torn labrum in his shoulder in Sunday's 31-23 loss to Atlanta. Martin, who rushed for 1,454 yards and 11 touchdowns last season as a rookie, will be sidelined indefinitely and could be done for the season. That puts more pressure on rookie quarterback Mike Glennon, who will be making his fourth career start.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The Panthers opened at -6 and have been bet down to -5.5. The total has jumped from 38.5 to 40.5.

WEATHER: Clear skies and temperatures in the mid 60s with winds blowing NE at 6 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (0.0) + Tampa Bay (+6.5) - home field (-3.0) = Buccaneers +3.5

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (3-3, 3-3 ATS): Newton has put up huge numbers in the past but they haven't translated into the win column. He has been steely efficient in back-to-back victories over St. Louis and Minnesota, completing 35-of-43 passes for four touchdowns and zero interceptions while posting passer ratings of 136.3 and 143.4, respectively. Carolina's defense has also play a pivotal role in the resurgence, allowing an average of 243 total yards over the past four games and yielding one TD in each of the past two.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (0-6, 1-5 ATS): Three of Tampa Bay's losses have come by a combined six points, so circumstances are not as dire as the record indicates despite the reported friction between the players and coach Greg Schiano. Although Martin is the focal point of the offense, he has struggled in his second season and been held to 67 rushing yards or fewer in four of the six games. Glennon is developeding a nice rapport with wideout Vincent Jackson, who has 19 receptions for 252 yards and four TDs in the past two games.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Tampa Bay.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The teams have alternated series sweeps over the past four seasons.

2. Newton has five TD passes and zero interceptions with four rushing scores in his last three versus the Buccaneeers.

3. Tampa Bay churned out 297 rushing yards in the two wins over Carolina last season.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-23-2013, 10:20 PM

NFL

Thursday, October 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tale of the tape: Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers begin life without one of their offensive lynchpins as they tangle with the visiting Carolina Panthers on Thursday night in an NFC South showdown.

The Buccaneers have dropped six consecutive games to start the season and have lost stud running back Doug Martin to a torn labrum. Mike James gets the start in Martin's absence, but he'll have his hands full with a Carolina defense that has stuffed opposing rushers all season.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Buccaneers have scuffled on the offensive end this season, though things may be looking up after rookie quarterback Mike Glennon racked up 256 yards and a pair of touchdowns in last week's 31-23 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Tampa Bay is still averaging fewer than 200 passing yards per game, and a rush attack that ranks just 20th in the NFL in yards per game (101.2) will likely struggle further with the downgrade from Martin to James.

Carolina is also having trouble generating offense through the air, posting just 197.3 passing yards per game. The biggest difference between the division rivals is on the ground, where the Panthers rank seventh in the NFL with better than 130 yards per contest while putting up five touchdowns. The likely return of running back Jonathan Stewart in Week 9 from ankle injuries that have sidelined him all season should further bolster the Carolina running game.

Edge: Carolina

Defense

Depite the Buccaneers' early-season struggles, the Tampa Bay run defense remains one of the toughest in the league. Teams are averaging fewer than 89 rushing yards per game against the Bucs, and they are tied with the Baltimore Ravens for the fewest rushing touchdowns against (one). The pass defense has been more porous, allowing the 18th-most yards per game (252) while surrendering 11 touchdowns, tied for 11th-most in the league.

Carolina's charge toward an NFC playoff berth is being built on the strength of its defense. The Panthers have been one of the stingiest teams in the NFL against the pass, limiting opposing teams to 218 yards per game and five total touchdowns - tied with Pittsburgh for the fewest in the league. The run defense is also stout, surrendering the fourth-fewest yards per contest (84.5) and giving up just a pair of scores through the first six weeks.

Edge: Carolina

Special Teams

Tampa Bay has been solid in the return game, averaging the fifth-most yards on kickoffs (27.6) and ranking 10th in punt-return average (10.8). The Bucs have the ninth-best kickoff return average against (22) and are allowing the opposition just seven yards per punt return. Veteran kicker Rian Lindell is just 8-of-10 on field-goal attempts, but connected on all three of his attempts last weekend against the Falcons.

The Panthers have been a below-average return team so far in 2013, ranked 20th in kickoff-return average (22.8) and tied for 24th on punt returns (6.3). The Panthers have surrendered the 11th-most kickoff yards per attempt (23) and are allowing 10.3 yards per punt return, the seventh-highest mark in the league. Kicker Graham Gano hasn't been busy - his nine field-goal attempts are tied for the fewest in the NFL - but he has connected on all of them.

Notable Quotable

"What's most important is I think the guys recognize that every other NFL player watches this game, at least if they're a football fan they do. The Thursday night football game is part of their week. It's a big part of our league. When you get a chance to be the only show in the league, everybody understands that." - Buccaneers head coach Greg Schiano on the importance of performing well on the national stage

"We're relevant. We're a young team that has gotten to a point now where we're doing the things that we need to do and showing what we're capable of. It's a great opportunity for this team, for this city, to make a mark. We have to go out and do that." - Carolina head coach Ron Rivera

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-23-2013, 10:48 PM

Wrong thread again....... never mind

**Udog** · 10-25-2013, 11:15 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 8

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 8:

Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos (-13, 58.5)

Redskins’ poor punting vs. Broncos’ field position

Washington’s special teams have been anything but, especially on punts. The Redskins rank dead last with an average of 42.1 yards per punt and is allowing opponents to run back those boots for 21.6 yards per return – another league worst. Washington has watched two punts returned for six points, most recently to Chicago’s Devin Hester last Sunday, and had one punt blocked for a score versus the Raiders.

Giving the Broncos great field position is like loading the guns for your firing squad. Denver doesn’t need much help moving the chains, and has one of the better return teams in the NFL. Speedster Trindon Holliday already has a punt return TD this year, with Denver ranked sixth in punt returns. That’s helped give Peyton Manning an average starting field position of 29.06 yards.

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3, 51)

Cowboys’ terrible third downs vs. Lions’ third-down defense

Dallas has one of the most explosive offenses in the league but has watched that attack stall on third downs. The Cowboys rank in the middle of the pack for third-down conversion percentage (37.5%) on the season, but were dismal on third down last week versus Philadelphia. Tony Romo & Co. went just 5-for-16 on third down and punted the ball away nine times. Dallas has had trouble moving the chains on third downs away from Big D, posting a 30.56 percent third-down conversion rate on the road – fourth lowest in the NFL.

Detroit has limited its foes to just 3.7 third-down conversions per game this season, which ranks second lowest in the league. The Lions defense is holding opponents to a 29.89 percent success rate on those third downs, trimming that to a NFL-low 21.21 percent inside Ford Field. The Lions have forced teams to kick 2.7 field goals per game, which also ranks among the NFL elite.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders (+1, 40)

Steelers’ cross-country hike vs. Raiders’ rush-heavy attack

Pittsburgh is coming off a grueling battle with the rival Ravens in Week 7, stacking up a long list of injuries, and now must travel across the map to take on the Raiders. Not only are the Steelers limping into the weekend but they haven’t fared well when making the cross-country trek. Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five trips out west (losses at San Francisco, Houston, Oakland and Denver) and was knocked off by the Raiders, 34-31, in Oakland last season.

The Raiders have fresh legs coming off the bye week and will look to pound a tired Pittsburgh defense with their ninth-ranked rushing attack. On top of dual-threat QB Terrelle Pryor, who has scrambled for 285 yards, the Steelers will have to contain RB Darren McFadden, who gashed them for 113 yards and a score last season. Pittsburgh's run stop unit is not as strong as past years, allowing foes to rush for an average of 109.3 yards per game.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+9.5, 47)

Packers’ run defense vs. Vikings’ RB Adrian Peterson

Rarely do we have Peterson on this side of the mismatch. Usually “All Day” is exploiting a mushy run defense in our weekly feature. However, with everything going on off the field and the Vikings’ QB woes on it, Peterson hasn’t come near the numbers of 2012. In his last two efforts, he’s mustered a total of 90 yards on 23 carries – an average of 3.91 yards per attempt. That’s below his season average of 4.4. Along with an understandable lack of focus following the death of his son, Peterson is nursing a sore hamstring and missed practice this week.

Green Bay knows what’s coming Sunday. With Minnesota playing musical chairs under center, the Packers can almost forget the passing game and focus solely on stopping Peterson. The Cheese Heads are undergoing a defensive renaissance this fall and boast the third toughest rushing defense in the NFL. Teams are picking up only three yards per carry in the Packers last three games and Green Bay has faced some reputable rushing attacks this season.

**Udog** · 10-25-2013, 11:18 AM

NFL Betting Week 8 Preview Hot bets and moving odds

All odds current as of noon ET, Oct. 24

Half way through the NFL regular season, you aren’t going to see the major line moves that we saw through the first eight weeks barring major injuries or starting lineup moves. And even if there are significant moves, these lines are tight enough that they usually won’t move much. Such is the case this week when a pile of backup quarterbacks will be forced into duty.

Talking Thursday Night’s total

Even though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be starting two rookies in the backfield, this total continues to rise. With Doug Martin hitting the shelf last week, rookie Mike James will start at running back in the backfield with rookie Mike Glennon. The total opened at 38.5 but is now sitting at 40.5 points.

Calling all QBs

Kellen Clemens gets the call for St. Louis after Sam Bradford went down with a season-ending knee injury last week. His first test at home to the Seattle Seahawks couldn’t be much tougher. The Rams, who even called Brett Favre to come out of retirement, are holding as 10.5-point home dogs while the total has dropped a point from the open to 42.5.

Meanwhile, things couldn’t get much worse for Cleveland offense as Jason Campbell steps up in place of the benched Brandon Weeden. The Browns are holding as 7.5-point road underdogs at Kansas City.

Josh Freeman’s debut with the Vikings couldn’t have gone worse. He was terrible in Week 7 and now has a concussion, so Minnesota will go back to the well with Christian Ponder on Sunday night against the Packers. The Vikings have moved from +10 to +9.

Mike Vick looks like the man again in Philadelphia now that he is reportedly healthy while Nick Foles deals with a concussion. The Eagles host the Giants as 5.5-point favorites, down half a point from the open.

Hot and not

The betting public is all over the Carolina Panthers in Thursday Night Football action. About 82 percent of Sports Interaction’s handle is on the Panthers as they visit the Buccaneers.

Bettors love the 7-0 Chiefs at home to Cleveland as well. Chiefs supporters make up 81 percent of our action as of noon Thursday.

The New Orleans Saints are seeing 77 percent of our action as they host the Buffalo Bills as 11.5-point favorites.

**Udog** · 10-26-2013, 11:47 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Jaguars (0-7) vs 49ers (5-2) (London)—Our condolences to Jaguar coach Bradley, who just lost his dad, will re-join team later this week in London. Niners won/covered last four games by average score of 33-13, figure to squash hideous Jaguar squad that lost first seven games by double figures, something that hasn’t happened in 30+ years. Only game Jax covered was 35-19 loss in Denver when they were getting 27 points; their offense has improved last three games, averaging 359.3 ypg, after averaging 224 ypg in first four losses, but their closest loss this year was 19-9 (+6) at Oakland in Week 2. 49ers are 5-1 as favorites this year, 21-8-1 in Harbaugh era; they’re +8 in turnovers in last three games (10-2) and have won field position by average of 12 yards per game during 4-game win streak- they were held to 3-7 points in their two losses. Six of Jags’ seven opponents scored 24+ points. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-3 vs spread, 3-1 on road; AFC South underdogs are 7-9 vs spread, 5-4 on road. Three of last four 49er games went over the total.

Cowboys (4-3) @ Lions (4-3)—Dallas is 6-1 vs spread this year, 3-0 when getting points; in two games since 51-48 loss to Denver, Cowboys allowed only one offensive TD on 25 drives, no TDs/four FGs on five red zone drives, so their defense has improved since then. Pokes are in Motor City for first time in six years; they’re 5-2 in last seven series games, with average total in last four meetings, 60.8- their win in Philly last week was their first in three road games. Detroit’s special teams cost them in close loss to Cincy last week, giving up blocked 34-yard FG and then shanking punt in last minute that sent them to first loss in three home games- they’re 2-1 as home favorite this year, 10-7 in last 17 such games. In last five games, Dallas has scored TD on first drive in seven of 12 halves- impressive!!! Lions have been outscored 20-0 on first drive of games this season. Average total in Detroit’s three home games this year is 60.3, with all three going over total. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-8-1 vs spread, 2-5-1 at home; NFC East underdogs are 3-4 vs spread, 2-3 on road.

Giants (1-6) @ Eagles (3-4)—Vick is starting QB for Iggles here, who have now lost nine home games in a row; they’ve won eight of last ten games in this series, beating Giants 36-21 (+2.5) three weeks ago, outrushing them 140-53 with four takeaways (+4) in game where Giants had 136 penalty yards. Am guessing Vick starts after Foles was knocked silly last week by Dallas. NY lost three of last four visits here, losing by 23-10-2 points. Big Blue is on short week after getting first win in 23-7 snoozer over inept Vikings, game where Giants had only 64 rushing yards and averaged 4.7 yards/pass attempt, with TD/three FGs in four red zone drives- in their seven games, Giants are a total of -4 yards on 20 plays with two turnovers in their first drive of third quarter, so they’re not making good adjustments at halftime. Giants are 0-4 on road, 1-3 as road dogs, giving up average of 33.5 ppg away from home. Five of seven Eagle games, four of seven Giant games went over the total. NFL wide, divisional home favorites are 15-7 vs spread so far this season, 3-3 in NFC East.

Browns (3-4) @ Chiefs (7-0)—Cinderella Chiefs are last unbeaten in NFL, can get to halfway mark 8-0 with win here; they’re 2-2 as home favorites this year (5-16-1 since ’07) with pair of 17-16 wins (Cowboys/Texans) at Arrowhead- they’ve given up only 7.5 ppg at home (four TDs on 46 drives). KC was minus in turnovers last week for first time this season; they’re still +11 for season. Browns are 0-4 when Weeden starts, 3-0 with Hoyer (out for year), which is why Jason Campbell might get nod here; in their last five games, Browns were outscored 35-0 on first drive of each half, outgained 467-83 on those ten drives. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 8-5 vs spread, 4-3 at home; AFC North underdogs are 6-4-1, 3-2-1 on foreign soil. Cleveland won three of last four series games, splitting pair (20-41/41-34) in last two visits here, but this is their first visit here since ‘09. Six of KC’s seven games stayed under the total. NFL-wide, non-divisional home favorites of 4+ points are 16-10 vs spread this season.

Bills (3-4) @ Saints (5-1)—Saints won/covered last four post-bye games, scoring 42 ppg; they’re 3-0 as home favorites this year, winning 23-17/31-7/38-17 scores, and are 11-0 vs spread in last 11 home games coached by Payton (suspended in ’12). Only one of Buffalo’s seven games (37-24 loss in Cleveland on a Thursday) was decided by more than seven points; Bills are 5-2 as a dog this season, but home side covered six of their seven games (1-2 as road dogs). Buffalo scored 20+ points in every game this year, despite starting two rookie QBs (Lewis has been around a little, but had only one start before this year). NO won last three games vs Buffalo by average score of 23-7, as home side won last five series games, but this is Bills’ first visit to Bourbon Street since ’98 (they lost 19-7 to Saints in Alamodome in ’05, when Saints were displaced by the hurricane). NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC East road dogs are 2-4. Five of last six Buffalo games went over the total.

Dolphins (3-3) @ Patriots (5-2)—Miami had ball and 21-20 lead with 3:00 left last week, when sack/fumble in Fish territory set Bills up for winning FG, bitter loss for Miami team that hasn’t won since Week 3, losing last three games while allowing 29 ppg, with two of three losses by FG each (missed tying 57-yard FG at gun vs Ravens in Week 5). Dolphins lost six in row and 10 of last 12 games vs Patriots, losing last four visits here by 10-31-3-28 points. Miami is 2-1 as road dogs this year, losing 38-17 in Superdome, after opening season with mild upset wins at Cleveland/Indy. Since ’03, Belichick is 24-9 vs spread in game following a loss; NE has only one win (23-3 over winless Bucs) by more than seven points; three of its five wins are by 2 or 3 points- they’re 2-1 as home favorites, 20-15 in that role since ’09, but they’re just 10-15 vs spread in last 25 games as a divisional HF (30-19-2 as non-div. HF). Fish are 25-12-1 in last 38 games as a road dog, 9-4 in last 13 divisional games. Last five Miami games and three of last four Patriot games went over the total.

Jets (4-3) @ Bengals (5-2)—How will Cincy handle prosperity of two-game lead in AFC North? Bengals are 3-0 at home, winning by 10-4-7 points; they’re 5-2-1 in last eight games as a home favorite, 18-8-1 in game following their last 27 wins. Five of Jets’ seven games this year were decided by 7 or less points; they’re 4-2 as underdogs and are coming off home upset of Patriots, where they outgained Pats by 88 yards and were 11-21 on third down (NE was 1-12). Jets won four in row, nine of last ten games in this series, with last four wins all by 10+ points, but teams haven’t met since ’10 and Gang Green hasn’t been here since 24-14 win in ’09 playoffs. Bengals are 5-2 despite being plus in turnovers in only one game; they’ve had three takeaways in last four games, but they did block a short FG in Detroit last week. Jets are -10 in turnovers in their three losses, -1 in the four wins, but they also haven’t won two games in a row yet- their losses are by 3-25-13 points. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-4 this year, 2-2 at home; AFC East underdogs are 6-5, 2-4 on road.

Steelers (2-4) @ Raiders (2-4)—Pitt allowed only 22 points in two post-win byes (one TD on 18 drives) after being 0-4 before bye; they’re 1-2 away from home, beating Jets 19-6, losing to Cincy by 10, by 7 to Vikings in London. Since ’06, Steelers are 7-17-1 as a non-divisional road favorite. Raider QB Pryor is from western Pennsylvania, so this is special game for him, but Oakland lost its last ten post-bye games (1-9 vs spread); last time they won post-bye game was last year they made Super Bowl, ’02. Home side won five of six Raider games; they’re 2-1 at home, losing only to Redskins- they’re 2-4 as home underdog under Allen, 1-1 this year. Oakland lost three of last four games before its bye; they allowed 9-17 points in their wins, 21+ (average of 26.5) in losses. Home team won five of last six series games; Steelers lost 20-13/34-21 in last two visits here- their last win here was 1995. Three of four Oakland losses (Ind-Den-KC) are to elite teams in league, while Steelers lost to Titans/Vikings. Under is 4-1-1 in Raider games, 4-2 in Steeler games this season.

Redskins (2-4) @ Broncos (6-1)—Shanahan won two Super Bowls in Mile High City, returns here with 2-4 Redskin squad that 27+ allowed points in five of six games this year and almost lost to Bears’ backup QB at home last week when they scored 45 points. Skins’ defense may be without DB Meriwether (suspension) and against #18 in altitude, you need all the DBs you can find. Denver lost for first time in ’13 last week, despite outgaining Colts by 95 years; they were -2 in turnovers and have six giveaways (-3) in last two games, after having seven in first five games (+1); since 2006, Manning is 9-2 vs spread in game following a loss. Broncos are 3-1 as home favorites this year, winning by 22-16-32-16 points, with only non-cover when they were laying 27 to Jaguars two weeks ago. Redskins have yet to score TD (four FGs, five 3/outs) on first drive of a half. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 3-4 vs spread, 2-3 on road; AFC West favorites are 8-5, 4-3 at home. All seven Denver games went over the total; three of last four Redskin games stayed under, even with last week’s shootout.

Falcons (2-4) @ Cardinals (3-4)—Atlanta had been 22-10-2 under Smith in games with spread of 3 or less, but they’re 0-3 this year; first road game in over a month for Falcon squad that is 0-2 on road, losing both games when they failed in red zone in last 1:00, on offense in Superdome, on defense in Miami. Atlanta won six of last eight series games, but lost four of five visits here, including 30-24 loss in ’08 playoffs. Falcons won their post-bye game last week but ran ball for only 18 yards and were outgained by 46 yards by winless Bucs; they’ve been strong on first drive of a half (outscored foes 38-3) but they’ve been dreadful in clutch spots late in game. Key to Arizona offense is health of WR Fitzgerald, who caught two balls in going half-speed thru Thursday loss to SF last game; it almost makes sense for him to sit out here and get back to 100%. Cardinals outscored last three opponents 17-0 on first drive of 3rd quarter, but Arizona has yet to lead (0-6-1) at halftime this year, so they need to get off to better starts (TD/INT/4 punts on first drive of game). Last five Falcon games went over the total.

Packers (4-2) @ Vikings (1-5)—Newly acquired QB Freeman apparently got a concussion during Monday’s hideous (20-53 passing) loss in Swamp, so Ponder gets nod here, Vikings’ third different starting QB in last three games, 4th in last seven. How does team with Peterson at RB throw 53 passes and run only 14 times? Minnesota lost six of seven games to rival Packers, losing two of last three played here- they were -3 in turnovers in 24-10 playoff loss at Lambeau last January, game that Vikes outrushed Pack 167-76, but they completed only 11-30 passes as backup/current WR Webb QB’d that game. Green Bay allowed 34 points in both its losses, at SF/Cincy; they’re 3-0 since their bye, holding teams to 13 ppg (four TDs on 32 drives). Pack’s only road win in three tries was 19-17 (-3) at Baltimore when GB ran ball for 140 yards but kicked FG on both red zone drives. Minnesota had run ball for 126.8 ypg in 1-3 start, but to play so poorly in post-bye game and now to change QBs again, you have to wonder if anyone in Metrodome knows what they’re doing. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 15-7 vs spread this season.

Seahawks (7-1) @ Rams (3-4)—Kellen Clemens gets first Ram start under center with Bradford (knee) out for year, not exactly what is needed vs Seattle team that is 14-2 in last 16 series games, though they did lose two of last three visits here, with average total in their last three visits here, 28.7. 4th road game in five weeks for Seattle, with all four games in domes; Seahawks are 5-2 vs spread this year, 3-1 on road, with wins on foreign soil by 5-3-12 points and 34-28 loss at Indy (led 12-0 early). Popular wisdom is that Rams will try to run more with backup QB, but defenses will load up box and make Clemens try and beat them; Rams are 0-4 this year when scoring less than 27 points. On their first drive of game, St Louis has run 26 plays for 70 yards (2.7 ypp) for no points- they’ll need to get ahead early, to keep smallish crowd engaged. If Game 5 of World Series is going on couple of blocks away, this could be a very small crowd. Five of last six Seattle series wins are by 10+ points. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread this season. Four of last five Seattle games, six of seven St Louis tilts went over the total.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (Thursday, October 24 - Monday, October 28)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (Thursday, October 24 - Monday, October 28)

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment