NFL Week 8

[Alafan]

Bump gl

[roccodean]

1* Min +8 over GB
Play at 7.5+
This is classic over reaction to Monday's performance. My calc line is GB -6.5. Ponder is better than Freeman and now he has less pressure on him. GB's pass D is bad (25th v the pass). Minnesota's D is solid (7th v run and 13th v pass) and I think they keep this one close for the cover.

[Udog]

Good luck rocco!

[roccodean]

thanks all..usually only like 3-4 games but this week I love 8!!
good luck to all

1* Ariz -2.5 over Atl

Atlanta is a banged up team that is not good. They barely beat TB and they gave up 23 first downs and benifited from at fumble return for a TD. Arizona's offense is bad, but Atlanta's D is worst...they are 22nd vs the run and 26 vs the pass (YPPA). Conversely, Ariz D is stout (6th in YPR,16th YPPA). Also, Ariz is coming off a few extra days rest since they played last Thursday. Atl hasn't beat a good team this year (SOS is 28th) beating the Rams and the Bucs (both in the bottom 5 teams).




1* Det -3 over Dallas

This is mainly a situational play on Detroit. Dallas is coming off 3 big games including 2 division games and now is traveling again to a non-division opponent. On the other hand, Det is coming off a home favorite loss and will be fully focused for this gane. Statistically, these teams are similar. Detroit is 25th in YPR and 17th in YPPA, while Dal is 15th in both. Defensively, they are both bad. My calc line is Det -3, so the line is accurate.

[libertypl]

BOL today rocco. Thx for the analysis.

[LeRoy]

a lot of these lines dropped from your early post question play them any way but for less $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ thanks

[Sirporkie]

GL Rocco

[roccodean]

a lot of these lines dropped from your early post question play them any way but for less $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ thanks

Leroy, that's why I post them as soon as I bet them...the lines move against my picks very often. not to bragg, but I think I am the same picks as the syndicates bet bc I use same metrics

[jcindaville]

Jax is horrendous

[roccodean]

Jax is horrendous

agree

[jcindaville]

Rocco NFL 2014

Thru 8 weeks 15-22-1 (41%)
1* 9-12-1 -$420
2* 6-8 -$560
3* 0-2 -- $660

100$ bettor - $-1640

These numbers are not based on his units, based on how normal units are figured for tracking purposes.

Based on betting $100.00 on each star.

Leans are not included in these figures.

[roccodean]

JC...I can do my own record..thx

worst week of my 15 year betting career. It's all variance and with money management not big deal just gotta ride the wave. I analyze all my wins and losses...bc winning and losing often doesnt tell you if it was a "good" (ie long term winning pick) or bad pick
Minn-bad pick
Jax-bad pick
Jets-bad pick
Det-good pick that lost...+3 ypp (historically equalt 21+ point win) but -4 TOs (team that wins TO battle wins 77% ATS...good luck predicting that)
Mia: good pick that lost -0.2 ypp,+50 yds, up by 14 and +7.. but again -2 TOs
buff: could have went either way..but -3 in TOs
was: lost ypp but up 14 and +14...38 unanswered

public won big yester...not going to continue....dogs will be barking.

[roccodean]

Not making excuses..variance is a mofo