NFL Week 8

[roccodean]

1-5*

1* Wash +14 (sportsbook)

2* Mia +7 (-120, bookmaker)

love a lot of games this week...posting more later...

[vols fan]

I will be on both. Good luck. Might even play ML on your Dolphin play. Keep them coming!!!

[kbsooner21]

Best of luck Rocco!

[Homer]

GL Rocco

[roccodean]

I will be on both. Good luck. Might even play ML on your Dolphin play. Keep them coming!!!

Mia +7 pretty much everywhere now. Like their ML too

[roccodean]

Still have work to do but like alot of games this week...not my official plays, but looking into: jets (esp at 7+), ariz, buff (esp at 13+), jax, tb

[Kaptain]

gl rocco...thanks for the early posts

[roccodean]

thanks guys

[roccodean]

1* Jax +17

[roccodean]

Just finished numbers...IMO, NE -7 v Mia is crazy. NE still over valued bc of name.Cover up names and look at stats and same teams/Mia slightly better. Great money line bet on Mia.

[roccodean]

1* Buff at +11.5 or better (12 now)

[roccodean]

1* Jets at +6 or better

[LeRoy]

hopefully this is the week the dogs bite!!!!!!!!!!!!

[roccodean]

Think this is the week leroy...has been about 50-50 dogs/favs this nfl season

[roccodean]

may add: ariz,giants,det

Analysis:
1* JETS +6 or better
waiting online--may be able to catch 7
This is a game with 2 good defenses and average offenses...give me a big dog anytime in this situation. I don't see Cinci scoring enough to cover this number. The Jets are 1st in the NFL allowing only 3.1 YPR and 3rd in YPPA allowed. Actually, the Jets offense is slightly better than Cinci's. The Jets are 14th in YPR and 12th in YPPA, while Cin is 23rd and 11th in rushing and passing respectively (Cin does average 2 more points than the Jets). Looking at strength of sched Cinci is ranked 26th and the Jets 5th. My line is Cin -5 so there is some value on the Jets especially if it gets to 7.

2* WAS +14
Like at 13+
My calculated line is Denv -11.5 and getting 14 is a great line. Washington qualifies for a GREAT trend that is 31-6 ATS that plays against big favs that lost as favs last week. Denver's D was exposed last week and they are 28th versus the pass. Denver is a good team, but I have their strength of schedule 31st in the league (KC has the easiest schedule) and you can average the only above average team they beat is Dallas (barely).Washington's D is bad and I don't see them stopping the Broncos, but I see this as a shootout and Washington being able to cover the big number.

3* MIA +7
This line is still skewed because people think the Pats are the Pats of old, but they are not. In fact when you look at the pure stats, Mia is as good if not slightly better. Mia is 16th in YPR and 17th in YPPA. Defensively, they are 11th and 16th. Brady is just not the same this year...he is 31st in YPPA. Defensively, the Pats are 20th in YPR allowed. Brady is not the same Brady this year either....Brady's rankings: completion percentage 29th (55%), 30th in yards/pass attempt, 26th in QB rating, and 19th in ESPNs QBR. I think this line is also inflated because the Pats are off an upset loss so they should "bounce back", but actually Mia is in the bounce back scenario. Their is a 156-97 ATS trend favoring Miami because they lost as a big fav last week and are now a big dog. My calculated line is NE-4.5, so the value is definitely with Mia.

1* BUF +11.5 or better (got at 12)
Buffalo is still undervalued despite their continued good play. Conventional wisdom assumes that Buff is due for a let down after a big dog win last week, but on the contrary teams that are road dogs 7+ off a road dog win are 42-20 ATS since 2000. The Saints are a good team, but they have the worst run D in the league allowing 5.1 YPR! They also have no run game (29th in YPR). Their strength is in the pass game, but Buff's pass D is solid; they are 12th in the league in YPPA allowed. My calculated line is NO-9.5.

1* JAX +17
This is a pure value play. This is on a neutral field and my calculated line is SF -14. When the bookmakers give you 3 points you have to take it, no matter how bad a team is. SF may have won and covered their last 4 games, but I still don't think they are back to last years form. They beat the lowly Rams, Texans which they were +4 in TO's, Ariz in which they lost the yards/play battle but benefited from +2 TO ratio, and Tenn which they lost the yards/play by 1 (usually a 7 point loss historically) but SF was +2 in TO's. I still don't think they are the team they were last year.