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Monday's Trends and Indexes - 10/21 (MLB, CFL, NHL, Misc.)

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  • Monday's Trends and Indexes - 10/21 (MLB, CFL, NHL, Misc.)

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, October 21

    Good Luck on day #295 of 2013!

    At this time, the sports menu in this thread consists of MLB, CFL, and NHL until their seasons are played out. Also, general sports news and notes will be posted.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  • #2
    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    Most popular, least popular picks in the LVH Super Contest, where 1,034 contestants pick five games each week of the NFL season........they paid $1,500 each to be in this contest, by the way.

    Most popular (10-32-1 vs spread)
    1) Chiefs 280 - L
    2) Bears 276 - L
    T3) Lions 270 - L
    T3) 49ers 270 - W
    5) Broncos 259 - L
    6) Panthers 254 - W

    Least popular (23-17-1)

    31) Falcons 70 - W
    30) Dolphins 71 - L
    29) Jaguars 85 - L
    28) Vikings 87 -
    27) Packers 89 - W
    26) Rams 100 - L


    *****

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Sunday.....

    13) Jets 30, Patriots 27 OT-- Each team got a pick-6, Pats couldn't hold its 21-10 halftime lead, then lost in OT after a new rule was enforced for the first time, giving Jets a first down when they had missed a long FG. Gronkowski caught 8 balls for 117 yards; no other Patriot had more than 44 yards. Brady was 22-46-- New England is just another pretty good team.

    12) Chargers 24, Jaguars 6-- Jax was first team since '84 Oilers to lose its first six games, all by 10+ points; now they've done it again, losing to a team that made a cross country trip after winning on Monday night. Jaguars now go to England to go hammered by the 49ers next week.

    11) Chiefs 17, Texans 16-- Chiefs were minus in turnovers for first time this year, but defense held on in 4th quarter; on Houston's last three drives, they ran eight plays for minus-31 yards. Thought Keenum did well enough in his first start, but with Foster (hamstring) hurt, Texans had trouble running ball.

    10) Bengals 27, Lions 24-- Detroit's special teams screwed this game up; they led 10-7 but had a 33-yard FG blocked; how many 33-yard FGs get blocked in the NFL? Then Lions' punter shanked a 27-yard punt in the last minute, giving Bengals great field position to set up GW 54-yard FG.

    9) Bills 23, Dolphins 21-- Buffalo got a pick-6 on third play of the game; really hard for Miami to overcome that dismal a start- this was first game Dolphins outgained an opponent this season. Bills' only other TD was on a 44-yard drive-- they were +2 in turnovers.

    8) Redskins 45, Bears 41-- Wild game where Cutler got hurt but backup QB McCown was 14-20/204 and looked good doing it. Washington scored TD to win game with 0:45 left. Six of seven Chicago games have gone over total.

    7) Cowboys 17, Eagles 3-- Philly has now lost nine home games in row, and Foles got KOd, so they better hope Vick can play next week, or it'll l be USC rookie Barkley under center next week against the Giants. Dallas is now on top of the weak NFC East.

    6) Panthers 30, Rams 15-- Horrific game for St Louis, which lost Bradford (knee) and it may be serious. Carolina still hasn't allowed a first half TD this season. Weird that Rams played first outdoor game on October 20. Newton was 15-17 passing; Panthers didn't turn ball over. Good game for him.

    5) Falcons 31, Bucs 23-- Tampa Bay had one TD, three FGs on four drives in red zone; Schiano kicked FG with 5:00 left when he was down 14 and had only two timeouts left, then didn't onside kick. Atlanta was just 3-9 on third down and had only 18 rushing yards, not good.

    4) 49ers 31, Titans 17-- Niners head to England on 4-game win streak after spanking Tennessee in game where they outrushed Titans 153-70, were 8-16 on 3rd down. Tennessee lost last three games, scoring four TDs on 32 drives, after their surprising 3-1 start.

    3) Packers 31, Browns 13-- Rainy day in Lambeau saw Weeden fall to 0-6 as Cleveland's starting QB; seeing as he just turned 30, its time for Browns to go scout college QBs, unless they'd be happy with Hoyer there. Green Bay has injury issues at receiver, but rookie Boykin caught 8 balls for 103 yards.

    2) Steelers 19, Ravens 16-- Eighth game in last ten series meetings that was won by exactly three points. Neither offense was sharp (two TDs, seven FGs in game)-- Big Ben drove Steelers 39 yards on seven plays for winning FG in game that gives Bengals two-game lead in AFC North.

    1) Colts 39, Broncos 33-- First game in NFL history with 39-33 final score; Denver had three turnovers, 103 penalty yards and eight 3/outs on 16 drives. Four teams were -2 or worse in turnovers this week; they lost all four games by an average score of 31-22. Broncos started 11 of 16 drives 80+ yards from end zone, thanks in part to awful night by Denver PR Holliday.

    Comment


    • #3
      College football odds: Week 9 opening line report

      The Florida State Seminoles are rolling.

      The Seminoles (6-0 straight up, 5-1 against the spread) hammered the No. 3-ranked Clemson Tigers (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) by a score of 51-14 in South Carolina. This just one game removed from a 63-0 thumping of the Maryland Terrapins.

      Redshirt-freshman quarterback Jameis Winston was sensational versus Clemson, going 22-for-34 for 444 yards and three touchdown passes and is currently in the process of making a serious claim for the Heisman Trophy.

      Next up for State is a visit from North Carolina State (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) who bring an 0-3 conference record to Doak Campbell Stadium.

      According to Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, he and his team of oddsmakers - who sent out the 'Noles as big faves - don't foresee the Seminole Express slowing down any time soon.

      "Florida State is playing well and should have no problem with North Carolina State," Korner told Covers. "All of us were in and around Florida State -30 and that's just what we sent out. Garbage time will decide this one."

      Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma Sooners (-10)

      The Red Raiders (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) improved their unbeaten record Saturday with a 37-27 win over West Virginia. Behind the QB-pairing of Bakery Mayfield and Davis Webb, Tech has the nation's second-best aerial attack at 416.4 yards per game.

      The Sooners (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) bounced back with a win over the lowly Kansas Jayhawks after their loss to Texas in the 2013 edition of the Red River Rivalry. The Sooners are led by a stingy defense that allows just 17.1 points per game - good enough for ninth in the country.

      "We were scattered on this one," Korner says. "The range of numbers went from a low of -7.5 to a high of 13. I preferred the higher number but was talked down and we released Oklahoma -10. Offshores released lower but we think the money will be on the home team come kickoff."

      South Carolina Gamecocks at Missouri Tigers (-1.5)

      It was a banner week for the surging Missouri Tigers (7-0 SU, 6-0-1 ATS) as they - led by freshman QB Maty Mauk - dispatched the Florida Gators by a count of 36-17 and upped their SEC record to 3-0 on the season. If the Tigers get by the Gamecocks (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS) in Week 9, they have a real chance of being undefeated when they host Texas A&M on Nov. 30 to conclude their regular season schedule.

      The Gamecocks are coming off a tough 23-21 loss at the Tennessee Volunteers and are now 3-2 in the conference play. Starting QB Connor Shaw left the game in the fourth quarter with a knee injury and is now a doubt to play against Missouri.

      "Two evenly matched teams and our numbers supported that," Korner stated. "We had a low of a Pick and a high of Missouri -4. We settled on sending out Missouri -1.5 which is nothing more than a little less than home field advantage. South Carolina can certainly take his one straight up so we didn't want to be too generous."

      Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State (+7)

      Another team with a great bounce back week was Stanford. The Cardinal (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) took one on the chin from Utah back on Oct. 12, but dusted the dirt off with a 24-10 win over previously unbeaten UCLA. RB Tyler Gaffney was excellent against the Bruins, carrying the ball a whopping 36 times for 171 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

      Another Pac 12 foe awaits as the Cardinal will travel up the Pacific coast to face Oregon State. The Beavers (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) own the top passing attack in the country with 442.1 yards per game. They thumped Cal 49-17 to extend their winning streak to six games and are 4-0 in conference play.

      "Oregon State knows how to put up points and we're very aware of that but Stanford is the better team for sure," Korner explained. "We had a low of Stanford -4 and a high of -9 and we sent out -7 knowing in a later game, the money seems to find all of the favorites. The offshore number was a bit lower but that's not good booking at this point. No need to be cheap on the favorites."

      Comment


      • #4
        World Series betting: Red Sox Game 1, series faves

        The Boston Red Sox head into the 2013 World Series as -145 (Bet365) favorites over the St. Louis Cardinals.

        The Sox will play for their first World Series trophy since 2007 when they swept the Colorado Rockies.

        The Cardinals, priced at +125, were the 2011 champions after outlasting the Texas Rangers in seven games.

        The two clubs did not face one another this season - and haven't since 2008 - but the Sox have the edge in Interleague matchups this season.

        Boston posted a 14-6 record against National League opponents and outscored them at a 118-54 clip.

        St. Louis was 10-10 against American League teams and had the upper hand in runs as well, outscoring AL opponents 100-75.

        It looks as if the series will open with staff aces toeing the rubber at Fenway Park Wednesday evening.

        Adam Wainwright is probable to get the call for St. Louis and Jon Lester is the probable starter for the Red Sox.

        The Red Sox are Game 1 faves at -125 and the total is currently 7.

        Comment


        • #5
          NHL
          Dunkel


          San Jose at Detroit
          The Red Wings look to take advantage of a San Jose team that is 11-23-1 in its last 35 games in Detroit. Detroit is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100). Here are all of today's picks.

          MONDAY, OCTOBER 21

          Game 1-2: San Jose at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.861; Detroit 12.704
          Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 5
          Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-120); 5 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100); Under

          Game 3-4: Colorado at Pittsburgh (8:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.913; Pittsburgh 13.541
          Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6
          Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-165); 5 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-165); Over

          Game 5-6: Calgary at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.082; Los Angeles 12.756
          Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 5
          Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-220); 5 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-220); Under




          NHL
          Long Sheet

          Monday, October 21


          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


          SAN JOSE (7-0-0-1, 15 pts.) at DETROIT (6-3-0-0, 12 pts.) - 10/21/2013, 7:35 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          DETROIT is 111-45 ATS (+4.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
          SAN JOSE is 159-130 ATS (+22.8 Units) in road games first half of the season since 1996.
          SAN JOSE is 81-44 ATS (+22.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
          SAN JOSE is 165-177 ATS (+379.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
          SAN JOSE is 148-110 ATS (+29.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season since 1996.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          SAN JOSE is 5-2 (+2.3 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
          SAN JOSE is 5-2-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
          3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.6 Units)

          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


          COLORADO (7-1-0-0, 14 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (7-1-0-0, 14 pts.) - 10/21/2013, 7:35 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          COLORADO is 7-1 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
          COLORADO is 7-1 ATS (+5.8 Units) first half of the season this season.
          COLORADO is 17-5 ATS (+22.5 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
          COLORADO is 17-6 ATS (+23.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
          COLORADO is 142-109 ATS (+23.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season since 1996.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          PITTSBURGH is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
          PITTSBURGH is 2-0-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
          2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.1 Units)

          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


          CALGARY (3-2-0-2, 8 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (6-3-0-0, 12 pts.) - 10/21/2013, 10:35 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          LOS ANGELES is 124-142 ATS (+267.2 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          LOS ANGELES is 5-2 (+1.5 Units) against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
          LOS ANGELES is 5-2-0 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
          5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.4 Units)

          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




          NHL
          Armadillo's Write-Up

          Monday, October 21


          Hot teams
          -- Sharks won seven of their first eight games. Detroit won four of last five.
          -- Colorado/Pittsburgh both won seven of their first eight games.
          -- Kings won five of their last six games.

          Cold teams
          -- Flames lost three of their four road games this season.

          Series records
          -- Sharks won six of last eight games with Detroit.
          -- Penguins won their last three games with Colorado.
          -- Kings won their last four games with Calgary.

          Totals
          -- Last three San Jose games went over the total.
          -- Three of last four Colorado games went over the total.
          -- 14 of last 17 LA-Calgary games stayed under the total.




          NHL

          Monday, October 21


          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Trend Report
          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          7:30 PM
          COLORADO vs. PITTSBURGH
          Colorado is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games on the road
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
          Pittsburgh is 3-9-1 SU in its last 13 games ,when playing at home against Colorado
          Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Colorado

          7:30 PM
          SAN JOSE vs. DETROIT
          San Jose is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
          San Jose is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Detroit
          The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games when playing at home against San Jose
          Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Jose

          10:30 PM
          CALGARY vs. LOS ANGELES
          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Calgary's last 7 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
          Calgary is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
          Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games when playing Calgary


          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




          NHL

          Monday, October 21


          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Pucking the trends: This week's best NHL bets
          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          For the week of Oct. 14-20

          Hot team

          Anaheim Ducks (3-0 SU)

          Following Sunday night's 6-3 win over the Dallas Stars, the red-hot Anaheim Ducks have now won seven-straight hockey games and posted three victories over the course of the week. The Ducks embark on a tough eight-game road trip with stops this week at Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa and Columbus. If they come out on top, we'll find out if the Bruce Boudreau's Ducks are for real.

          Cold team

          Philadelphia Flyers (0-2 SU)

          Philly is in a bad spot. Plain and simple. They handed Peter Laviolette his walking papers on Oct. 7 due to a poor start and promptly won Craig Berube's first game as boss on Oct. 8. Since then, the Flyers have dropped four-straight games. Just the two losses for the dismal Flyers this past week, and the Broad Street Bullies are off until Thursday when they host the equally poor New York Rangers and then have an away game at the New York Islanders Saturday.

          Best Over play

          San Jose Sharks (3-0 Over/Under)

          Not only are the Sharks one of the hottest teams in the league, but they have been lighting the lamp at a frenetic pace. The Sharks lead the NHL with 4.9 goals per game and posted two games where they scored six goals this past week, and of course the nine-goal outburst versus the Rangers back on Oct. 8. The Sharks upped their O/U record to 4-3-1 on the season after going 3-0 this past week. San Jose heads out to the east coast for a busy week which includes games at Detroit, Boston, Montreal and Ottawa.

          Best Under play

          Chicago Blackhawks (0-3 Over/Under)

          The defending Stanley Cup champions have played eight games thus far and five of them have finished 3-2. They have a record of 1-7 O/U and played under the total in all three matchups this past week. The Hawks are fifth in the league in goals against (2.1) and score a middle-of-the-pack 2.8 goals per game. The Hawks head to Sunshine State for tilts at Florida and Tampa Bay before closing the week at home against the Minnesota Wild Saturday night.

          Surveying the schedule:

          - The Vancouver Canucks are in the midst of an extended road trip out east. They started the seven-game tour with a 2-1 SU record through the first three games with the fourth in Columbus Sunday night. They'll conclude the road tour at the New York Islanders, New Jersey Devils and in St. Louis Friday.

          - The Colorado Avalanche have had an amazing start to the season and are an excellent 4-1-0 against Eastern Conference foes. Their success against the other conference will once again be put to the test as the Avs are in Pittsburgh Monday and host the Carolina Hurricanes Thursday.


          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          Comment


          • #6
            thanks U Dog....I just posted a HIASIGO (5 POD) play for Sat 10-26

            #172 San Jose St -5 1/2


            Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

            Comment


            • #7
              College football line watch: Keep tabs on Baylor total

              Spread to bet now

              Utah Utes (+7) @ USC Trojans

              The season is not progressing quite as planned for either of these Pac-12 entries, both of which are no guarantee to get to the required number of wins for bowl eligibility (in SC’s case, that means seven wins this season due to the extra game at Hawaii).

              But on the disappointment meter, the Trojans score higher, already enduring a coaching dismissal and dealing with a roster shorn of depth thanks to recent NCAA penalties.

              More illuminating is the fact that the normally voracious SC support base has gone into seclusion and is not moving numbers in Las Vegas as it did when the Trojans were riding high a few years ago. And for good reason, as Troy is now 5-15 vs. the line since last season.

              In addition, sources report that the last possible indicator of an SC turnaround was squandered last week in an unsightly 14-10 loss at Notre Dame, a game in which the Trojans couldn’t capitalize upon a KO of Irish QB Tommy Rees.

              And now, with star WR Marqise Lee reinjuring his knee at South Bend, the SC offense could once again be minus its most field-stretching component.

              Further, the loss at Notre Dame effectively condemns interim HC Ed Orgeron to caretaker status. Sources report that the only way Orgeron could have emerged as a potential candidate to retain the job on full-time basis would have been to run the table after Lane Kiffin’s late-September dismissal. Now, that’s not going to happen.

              In fact, many Pac-12 observers believe SC’s season could possibly go up in a mushroom cloud, with uncertainties about a new regime causing assistants to plan their escape route and many players on scholarship to worry about their place in the upcoming new order. History suggests those sorts can be expected to send out transfer feelers, adding more potential distractions in the last half of this season.

              It’s no box of chocolates in Salt Lake City, either, with Utah blowing a fourth quarter lead at Arizona last Saturday and perhaps minus QB Travis Wilson, who was pulled after suffering a hand injury at Tucson. Backup Adam Schulz, however, was serviceable in relief, and if Wilson can’t make the post this week, the effective drop-off at QB for the Utes should be minimal.

              We suspect that because of those aforementioned Trojan pointspread shortcomings, there will be some anti-SC money showing up as Saturday approaches. Early in the week, however, several seven's were still available throughout Nevada.

              We suggest Utah backers to grab the full seven ASAP, because the price likely drops below that key number as the week progresses, especially with the usual Trojan support base now staying away from the sports book windows in droves.

              Spread to wait on

              Texas Tech Red Raiders (+7) at Oklahoma Sooners

              Not a lot of early movement either way in the sports book action for this key Big 12 battle Saturday at Norman.

              But given the parameters and recent history in this series, we suspect the money will be mostly drifting in Oklahoma’s direction at some point during the week.

              Specifically, this is a price that we believe the public is likely to move (perhaps unwisely) toward the Sooners as we proceed to the Saturday kickoff.

              Though unbeaten, Texas Tech remains a bit of a mystery, having taken advantage of a favorable schedule in the first half of the season.

              Fueled by the football media, and aware of past late-season fades in Lubbock, many college football followers are understandably a bit wary of the Red Raiders and new HC Kliff Kingsbury. Popular opinion is that Texas Tech will soon get its comeuppance against a backloaded schedule that begins to toughen considerably this week with the trip to Norman.

              And Oklahoma is still, well, Oklahoma, even though Bob Stoops’ troops have burned their backers with recent non-covers vs. Texas and Kansas.

              Back home in Norman this week, however, the masses will likely be swayed by the trends in this back-and-forth series in which home field edge has proven a huge benefit.

              In fact, the home team has won the last nine meetings between these teams, and covered the spread in seven in a row. That sort of angle is not to be lost on the masses, who could be expected to support the Sooners in greater numbers as the week progresses.

              The fact there was no sharp money movement towards the Red Raiders at the onset of wagering suggests that any sharp money interested in Texas Tech is probably waiting until later in the week to make a move. And with the current price mostly sitting at OU -7, any Red Raider-inclined backers would probably rather sit tight and wait for the spread to float higher as we get closer to Saturday.

              No reason for Texas Tech supporters to bite on this price as long as it rests on a key number. We’d advise Red Raider money to idle for the moment, as this spread likely moves above that key seven later in the week.

              Total to watch

              Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks

              We remain fascinated by the machinations involving totals on Baylor games, which continue to distort normal oddsmaker etiquette.

              Once again last week against Iowa State, there was buy pressure on the Over involving the Bears, even with the oddsmakers hanging an initial total in the mid-to-high 70s for the game against the Cyclones.

              Indeed, most books had the first total price at a sky-high 75 or 76 for Cyclones-Bears last week at Waco, but there was still considerable appetite for the Over as there were mostly 78.5s posted around Las Vegas at kickoff time.

              The game landed on 78, with Art Briles’ team once again doing almost all of the scoring with 71 points. The Over was the winner on most of the tickets, moving the Waco bunch to 5-1 O/U this season.

              As mentioned earlier, oddsmakers are making pre-emptive moves on totals involving video-football teams like Baylor and Oregon, posting heretofore unthinkable totals into the stratosphere from the outset. We suspect another initial total in the 70s for Bears-Jayhawks, with totals perhaps into the 80s for upcoming games vs. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

              We’ll be interested to see if there is a bit more caution on the part of the wagering public regarding another Baylor Over this week, simply because the Bears are on the road. That’s because in their one game away from Waco, against Kansas State, Baylor was held to “only” 35 points, a far cry from the 71 ppg it is scoring at home. (The Wildcats were also the stiffest test to date the Bears have faced this season.)

              If nothing else, it will be fascinating to see if the public continues to play the Over on Baylor games no matter how high the oddsmakers set the totals price.

              Comment


              • #8
                NFL odds: Week 8 opening line report: Rams big dogs without Bradford

                Quarterbacks seem to be dropping like flies these days, and you can add St. Louis Rams passer Sam Bradford to that growing list.

                The Rams, who fell 30-15 to Carolina Sunday, announced that Bradford would miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL, leaving the offense in the hands of backup Kellen Clemens.

                Oddsmakers opened St. Louis as a 10-point home underdog hosting the Seattle Seahawks Monday night and quickly took action on the road team, jumping up as high as St. Louis +11.

                “One of the bigger moves so far,” Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag tells Covers. “Bradford is done for the season, but we’re not sure how much of a downgrade Kellen Clemens is. Definitely worth a point less.”

                Stewart says sharps love double-digit NFL underdogs – especially at home – and does expect some action to come back on the Rams as this spread gets higher and higher. The public has been in love with Seattle all season and will keep betting the Seahawks right until kickoff.

                “It's a brutal Monday Night Football game for us to book because parlays, teasers and pretty much 75 percent of the straight action is going to be on the Seahawks,” says Stewart. “Needing this Rams team in this stand alone game is already giving me an ulcer.”

                Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5)

                The Patriots are coming off a crushing overtime loss to the rival Jets Sunday, giving up an extra crack at the game-winning field goal due to a controversial call - Rule 9, Section 1, Article 3. New England opened as a 6.5-point home favorite, hosting Miami Sunday.

                “We were debating 6.5 and seven, and instead of opening on that key number -7, we opened at -6.5 and put some added juice on the favorite,” says Stewart. “(New England head coach Bill) Belichick is great SU and ATS off a loss, but this Patriots team isn't as good as years past. Lots of holes on defense.”

                Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3)

                The Cowboys continue to be the big breadwinner this season, boosting their ATS mark to 6-1 after a solid performance against Philadelphia Sunday. However, books have their eye on Dallas heading into Week 8, and have tabbed the Lions as 3-point home chalk. Detroit is 1-2 in its last three games, coming off a loss to Cincinnati in Week 7.

                “The Lions opened -3 because the spot for Cowboys is awful,” says Stewart. “They're off two key divisional wins as well as playing the second of back-to-back road games. Throw in all their injury issues and I believe the sharps will back the Lions here. But the public is already pounding ‘America's Team’."

                Comment

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