Announcement

**Udog** · 10-16-2013, 10:02 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Six of the more intriguing NFL games this week:

-- Seattle (-6) @ Arizona-- Seahawks won last meeting 58-0, but lost six of last seven visits to the desert. .

-- Chargers (-7.5) @ Jaguars-- Major trap game for San Diego.

-- Bengals @ Lions (-2.5)-- Sleeper Super Bowl preview?

-- Cowboys @ Eagles (-2.5)-- Finally, one of QBs on my fantasy team gets a shot at the Dallas defense.

-- Ravens @ Steelers (-1.5)-- Not sure what to make of either team.

-- Broncos (-6.5) @ Colts-- I am told Denver's QB used to play for Indy; anybody know anything about this?

*****

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.......

13) In three of Justin Verlander's last four starts, Detroit lost 1-0. Not what you expect from a Tiger team with that good a lineup.

12) New England has averaged 5.2 or less yards/pass attempt every game but one this season; LY, they were under 5.6 ypa once all season.

11) Apparently Mike Tomlin, or someone higher than Tomlin in the Steelers’ hierarchy, wasn’t thrilled with Emmanuel Sanders’ somersault into the end zone Sunday. Hey at least he got in the end zone. With the ball.

10) Tuesday night’s UL-Lafayette-Western Kentucky football game shows you how desperate some of these smaller schools are for TV exposure. Seriously, they’d play at 3am if ESPN asked; just look at the college hoop tipoff in November, when teams play games at 6am and 8am local time in order to get on national TV.

9) In case there was a human left on this planet who doubted that football is more popular than baseball, Sunday night’s Redskin-Cowboy game drew 13.8M more viewers than Game 2 of the ALCS.

8) Seahawks play at Arizona this week, in St Louis next week, which will end a stretch of four road games in five weeks, with all four of the road games in domed stadiums.

7) 6-9 Wanaah Bail became eligible for UCLA, a good addition for Steve Alford's frontcourt- he gives them some depth off the bench.

6) Chargers are 1-7-1 vs spread in game following their last nine wins.

5) Jets signed former college QB Josh Cribbs, who used to be a damn good kick returner for the Browns; wonder if they’ll use him in some Wildcat packages or just as a returner?

4) Brandon Jennings will miss the first week of the NBA season because of a hairline fracture of his jaw and an impacted wisdom tooth; neither of those sounds like much fun. He’ll probably lose weight during all that too, so it’ll take a while for him to get back to maximum strength.

3) If I own the Dodgers, a team with the highest payroll in baseball history, I want the team managed by a better manager than Don Mattingly.

2) There are 14 unbeaten teams left in major college football; we’ll be ranking them in this space tomorrow.

1) I’m thinking that our election ballots should have incumbents marked on them, so we know who to vote against next month. This shutdown stuff is annoying enough that I might actually research it in the newspapers and bring a cheat sheet into the voting booth so I know who not to vote for.

**Udog** · 10-16-2013, 10:02 AM

NFL line watch: Hold off on betting Big D at Philadelphia

Spread to bet now

San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans (+4.5)

This line opened at 5. There are still some 4.5s out there, but a few 4s are creeping onto the board now as well. Don't wait to jump on this one if you're planning on backing the home side this week.

When the Titans take the field Sunday, they'll be looking to improve upon their 2-1 home record. Tennessee's defense surrendered just 30 combined points in the two home victories. The Jags are a writeoff and the Texans are plummeting. With a date vs. the Broncos next week, the Colts are likely going to be sitting at 4-3 on Monday morning. If that scenario occurs, an outright victory Sunday would move the Titans into a tie for the AFC South lead.

The 49ers have bounced back after a dismal start, but there's no question their Achilles’ heel has been their play on the road this year, where they’re just 1-1. Tennessee has a similar smashmouth style of defense that the Seattle Seahawks do, a team which held San Francisco to just three points in Week 2. The Titans were in the Pacific Northwest last week and took those same Seahawks down to the wire in the eventual 20-13 setback.

With the sharps and the public jumping on the underrated home side, don't wait any longer if you plan on backing the Titans this weekend.

Spread to wait on

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

Cowboys backers should wait closer to kickoff before getting down on this one. This line would open as a pick but the home side has seen considerable action already. The Eagles now sit as 2.5-point favorites across the board, with a couple of 3's starting to make an appearance as well.

The Cowboys have shown marked improvement over the last two weeks, taking the Broncos down to the wire and having their way in a 31-16 victory over Washington last week. Dallas, though, is 0-2 on the road this year, losing 17-16 at Kansas City and 30-21 at San Diego, and has a ton of injuries on defense along with RB DeMarco Murray.

The Cowboys and Eagles are now tied atop the NFC East, making this week's contest crucial. Both the sharps and the public know that division games are always the most important and almost always it's more important for the home side.

Total to watch

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (56)

This line is already dropping. Sunday night games have paid big dividends for Over bettors this season, but both teams are coming off offensive duds.

While the Broncos pulled away with a convincing 35-19 victory over the lowly Jaguars last week, they were unable to cover the sky-high 28-point spread and were up just two points (14-12) at half-time.

Indianapolis came into its Monday night game in San Diego with a lot of momentum but got caught looking ahead and laid an egg in a 19-9 setback.

There will be many storylines to consider in this matchup, but it's clear that both the sharps and the public are thinking that Peyton Manning's return to the stadium that he helped build will be more of a defensive battle once the smoke settles.

**Udog** · 10-16-2013, 10:05 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Boston at Detroit
The Red Sox look to follow up yesterday's 1-0 win and take advantage of a Detroit team that is 3-10 in Doug Fister's last 13 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Boston is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 16

Game 915-916: St. Louis at LA Dodgers (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Kelly) 15.588; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 16.984
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 917-918: Boston at Detroit (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Peavy) 16.728; Detroit (Fister) 16.047
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+110); Over

MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 16

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ST LOUIS (103 - 68) at LA DODGERS (96 - 74) - 4:05 PM
JOE KELLY (R) vs. ZACK GREINKE (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 6-5 (+0.8 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.9 Units)

JOE KELLY vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
KELLY is 1-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.22 and a WHIP of 1.299.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.5 units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
GREINKE is 8-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.43 and a WHIP of 1.202.
His team's record is 8-5 (+3.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-8. (-3.8 units)

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BOSTON (102 - 67) at DETROIT (97 - 73) - 8:05 PM
JAKE PEAVY (R) vs. DOUG FISTER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 102-67 (+21.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 46-38 (+7.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
BOSTON is 11-2 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Wednesday this season.
BOSTON is 90-59 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BOSTON is 72-52 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BOSTON is 67-45 (+13.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
DETROIT is 97-73 (-12.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 4-8 (-10.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Wednesday this season.
DETROIT is 93-70 (-13.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 119-97 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-5 (-0.2 Units) against BOSTON this season
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.5 Units, Under=-0.9 Units)

JAKE PEAVY vs. DETROIT since 1997
PEAVY is 4-5 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.83 and a WHIP of 1.205.
His team's record is 4-8 (-4.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-7. (-5.0 units)

DOUG FISTER vs. BOSTON since 1997
FISTER is 2-4 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 4.36 and a WHIP of 1.569.
His team's record is 4-4 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-4. (-1.4 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 16

Tigers-Red Sox
Peavy is 1-0, 4.70 in his last five starts, with three of last four staying under the total. He allowed four runs in seven IP in 7-4 win over Detroit July 25, in his last start for the White Sox.

Fister is 2-0, 4.05 in his last three starts, with four of his last six staying under the total. He started against Boston twice this year; June 21 he gave up 11 hits, six runs in 3.1 IP in a 10-6, then he blanked Red Sox for seven innings in a 3-0 win Spetember 2.

Boston rallied from down 5-1 in 8th inning to even series with 6-5 walkoff win Sunday, and now lead series after 1-0 win Tuesday; nine of their last twelve games went over total. Red Sox are 5-5 vs Detroit this season, with the home team 6-4 in those games. Boston lost four of their last seven road games.

Detroit is 6-9 in its last 15 games; nine of their last twelve stayed under the total. Tigers won seven of their last eleven home games.

Dodgers-Cardinals
Kelly is 1-0, 2.70 in his last three starts; Cardinals are 7-3 in his last 10 starts, with over 5-2-1 in his last eight. He is 1-0, 2.38 in two starts against LA.

Kershaw is 3-1, 1.13 in his last five starts, with three of last four going over the total. He is 0-2, 3.32 in three starts against LA this season.

Dodgers are 5-6 against St Louis this year, with eight of 11 games going under the total. LA is 4-4 in playoffs but 10-14 in last 24 games overall; all four games in this series stayed under the total-- they've scored seven runs in 40 innings in this series so far.

Cardinals won 14 of their last 18 games, but lost three of last five road games; they allowed seven runs in first four games of this series- five of their last six games stayed under total.

MLB

Wednesday, October 16

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Trend Report
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4:07 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. LA DODGERS
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis

8:07 PM
BOSTON vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Boston is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing at home against Boston

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MLB

Wednesday, October 16

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Cardinals at Dodgers: What bettors need to know
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St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers (N/A)

St. Louis leads series 3-1.

The St. Louis Cardinals are one win away from their 19th trip to the World Series. The Cardinals will attempt to lock up the National League pennant behind Joe Kelly when they visit the Los Angeles Dodgers for Game 5 of the NL Championship Series on Wednesday. St. Louis is riding its excellent pitching in the series and finally got something out of Matt Carpenter and Matt Holliday in the 4-2 triumph in Game 4.

Carpenter and Holliday were a combined 2-for-23 in the first three games but totaled three hits and combined for three RBIs to help the Cardinals take a commanding 3-1 lead. The Dodgers are getting their own solid pitching but are lacking something on offense, where Andre Ethier and Hanley Ramirez are playing through pain. Ramirez (fractured rib) went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts and was in noticeable pain before being removed on Tuesday.

TV: 4:07 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 70s with clear skies and winds blow SW at 5 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Joe Kelly (10-5, 2.69 ERA) vs. Dodgers RH Zack Greinke (15-4, 2.63)

Kelly went up against Greinke in Game 1 and held his own, allowing two runs on six hits while striking out five in six innings. The 25-year-old owns a power sinker that helped him generate 11 ground balls in Game 1 and 19 in two postseason outings. Kelly was a better pitcher on the road during the regular season, going 5-1 with a 2.07 ERA in 19 games - seven starts.

Greinke surrendered a total of eight hits in 14 innings during his two postseason starts and was at his best against the Cardinals in Game 1, striking out 10 while allowing two runs on four hits in eight innings. The Dodgers’ struggling offense is the only thing keeping the former Cy Young Award winner from a win in the playoffs. Greinke went 8-2 with a 2.11 ERA in 14 starts at home during the regular season.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Los Angeles.
* Dodgers are 12-2 in Greinke's last 14 home starts.
* Over is 5-1-1 in Kelly's last 7 starts overall.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Ramirez did not take a pain-killing injection before Game 4 and will be a game-time decision Wednesday.

2. St. Louis held a 3-1 lead in the NLCS over the San Francisco Giants last season before dropping three straight.

3. Los Angeles suffered 4-1 losses in each of its last two trips to the NLCS (2008 and 2009) and is looking for its first trip to the World Series since 1988.

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**Udog** · 10-16-2013, 10:10 AM

NHL
Dunkel

NY Rangers at Washington
The Capitals look to take advantage of a New York team that is 1-7 in its last 8 road games. Washington is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Capitals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-150). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 16

Game 51-52: NY Rangers at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 10.514; Washington 11.915
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-150); Under

Game 53-54: Calgary at Anaheim (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.265; Anaheim 11.061
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+165); Over

NHL
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 16

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NY RANGERS (1-4-0-0, 2 pts.) at WASHINGTON (2-4-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/16/2013, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY RANGERS are 46-70 ATS (-33.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 22-34 ATS (-34.0 Units) in home games after playing 3 consecutive home games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 12-9 (+1.3 Units) against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 12-9-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
10 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+6.4 Units)

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CALGARY (3-0-0-2, 8 pts.) at ANAHEIM (4-1-0-0, 8 pts.) - 10/16/2013, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ANAHEIM is 154-130 ATS (+284.1 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 4-2 (+2.0 Units) against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
ANAHEIM is 4-2-0 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.7 Units)

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NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 16

Hot teams
-- Anaheim won its last four games, allowing six goals. Flames won three of their last four.

Cold teams
-- Rangers lost last three games by combined score of 20-5. Washington lost three of its last four games.

Series records
-- Rangers won four of last five games vs Washington after Caps had taken 2-0 series lead in LY's playoffs, shutting them out in last two games.
-- Ducks are 8-3 in their last eleven games with Calgary.

Totals
-- Last three Ranger games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Anaheim-Calgary games stayed under the total.

NHL

Wednesday, October 16

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
NY RANGERS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of the NY Rangers last 24 games when playing on the road against Washington
NY Rangers are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Washington's last 24 games when playing at home against NY Rangers
Washington is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against NY Rangers

10:00 PM
CALGARY vs. ANAHEIM
Calgary is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games on the road
Calgary is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Anaheim
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Anaheim's last 7 games when playing Calgary
Anaheim is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

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**Udog** · 10-16-2013, 05:32 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Wednesday, October 16

St Louis at LA Dodgers, 4:05 ET - Game 5 - STL leads 3-1
Kelly: ST Louis 18-6 SU with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games
Greinke: LA Dodgers SU revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite

Boston at Detroit, 8:05 ET - Game 4 - BOS leads 2-1
Peavy: Boston 11-2 SU in road games when playing on Wednesday
Fister: Detroit 4-8 SU in home games when playing on Wednesday

**Udog** · 10-16-2013, 05:33 PM

NHL
Short Sheet

Wednesday, October 16

NY Rangers at Washington, 8:05 ET
NY Rangers: 95-126 SU after playing a game where 8 or more total goals were scored
Washington: 32-16 SU after one or more consecutive overs

Calgary at Anaheim, 10:05 ET
Calgary: 28-17 SU in road games off a close home win by 1 goal
Anaheim: 7-0 UNDER after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games

Announcement

Wednesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/16 (MLB, CFL, NHL, Misc.)

Wednesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/16 (MLB, CFL, NHL, Misc.)

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