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**Udog** · 10-15-2013, 09:58 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Six of the more intriguing college football games this week:

-- Florida State (-3) @ Clemson-- Top spot in ACC up for grabs.

-- South Carolina (-7.5) @ Tennessee-- Another road test for Spurrier.

-- Washington @ Arizona State (-3)-- Big game for bowl position.

-- Florida (-3) @ Missouri-- Both teams now playing their #2 QB.

-- UCLA @ Stanford (-5)-- Cardinal coming off upset loss at Utah.

-- USC (+3) @ Notre Dame-- Interesting test for depleted Trojans.

*****

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.......

13) Our condolences to family of major league umpire Wally Bell, who died this weekend at age 48; he worked the Cardinal-Pirate series last week.

12) Wonder if there is tension between Tioger manager Jim Leyland and GM Dave Dombrowski; Detroit added lefty Phil Coke to the roster for the Boston series, I'm guessing because David Ortiz is 1-15 in his career vs Coke. But Sunday, when Ortiz was up with bases loaded and Coke was out in the bullpen, he stayed there while Ortiz hit a grand slam. Whoops.

What is the point of activating Coke if he isn't used there?

\11) NFL home underdogs in divisional games are 5-2 vs spread- they are 14-9 in non-divisional games.

\10) NFL home favorites in divisional games are 13-5 against spread; they are 18-19-1 in non-divisional tilts.

9) AFC West teams are 13-4 vs spread in non-divisional games; teams from AFC South are 6-13 vs spread outside their division. .

8) Kudos to the honorable humans at Jiffy Lube, who wouldn't change the oil in my car Monday because I hadn't driven enough miles since my last oil change. Would've been easy enough to make the change and take my cash.

7) Broncos get star LB Von Miller back this week, just in time for Peyton Manning's return to Indianapolis. Colts are on short rest this week.

\6) Chicago is 4-2 despite allowing 21+ points in every game; five of the six games went over the total. There have been seven TDs scored by defense or special teams in their games this season. Bears have had 3+ takeaways in five of their six games- they lost 26-18 to the Saints in the other game.

In Chicago's four wins, their field position was: +14/+15/+14/+12. In their two losses, it was -18/-15. Very unusual to have six games with none of them having even close to similar average field position.

5) Carolina is 2-3, despite outscoring opponents 50-12 in the first half; they still haven't allowed a first half TD this year.

4) Last three Raven games were decided by total of 8 points; four of their last five games stayed under the total. Baltimore is 11 for its last 46 on third down conversions- they were 24-54 in their first three games.

3) Cowboys scored 31+ points in their four wins, all at home; they've been held to 16-21 points in their two road games, both losses- they've dropped back to throw 111 times in their last three games, run ball only 49 times and now Ware/Murray are out for this week and probably next week too, games at Philadelphia/Detroit.

2) Houston was outscored 67-10 in second half of their last four games; no word yet on which QB they're starting at Arrowhead this week, but there could be major changes coming for the Texans, with their bye in Week 8.

1) How about the Chargers playing at Jacksonville Sunday, in an ultimate trap game? Emotional Monday night win, cross country flight and playing the worst team in the NFL? Try handicapping that game.

**Udog** · 10-15-2013, 09:59 AM

NBA Central Division betting preview: Bulls, Pacers to fight for crown

The Chicago Bulls and the Indiana Pacers are the definitive leaders of the NBA's Central Division and with a healthy Derrick Rose, the Bulls look primed to approach 60 wins in 2013-14. A pair of young, up and coming teams - the Cleveland Cavs and Detroit Pistons - could compete for playoff positions. The Milwaukee Bucks, on the other hand, could be in store for a rough campaign.

Chicago Bulls (2012-13: 45-37 SU, 36-46 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: -150
Season Win Total: 56.5

Why Bet The Bulls: This team won 45 games a year ago and a playoff series, then were able to remain largely competitive with Miami despite being incredibly short-handed. Now, they get Derrick Rose back and promise to be even more formidable. Two years ago with Rose in the lineup, Chicago won 50 games (more than Miami), tying for a league-high in a lockout-shortened season. They won 62 games (most in the league) in 2010-11. Tom Thibodeau could be the best coach in the league.

Why Not To Bet The Bulls: Maybe Rose won't be the same player he was before? The division is tough. But seriously, I just don't see many reasons why this team won't be better in 2013-14 compared to last season, provided Rose is healthy. The win total is the third highest in the league though, and taking the Over would require nearly 60 wins, which is hard to do.

Season Win Total Pick: Over 56.5 wins.

Cleveland Cavaliers (2012-13: 24-58 SU, 39-41-2 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: +1400
Season Win Total: 40.5

Why Bet The Cavs: This is expected to be one of the league's most improved teams and I tend to agree. From a numbers perspective, they underperformed their Pythagorean win expectation a year ago. They also went out and signed Andrew Bynum, who if he plays will be a nice addition in the middle to go along side young Tristan Thompson. They also now have two No. 1 overall draft choices on the roster with Kyrie Irving (one of the league's 15 best players) and rookie Anthony Bennett. High-energy forward Anderson Varejao is also now healthy after missing much of last year with a blood clot. Hopefully, he can now return to being an active player off the bench.

Why Not To Bet The Cavs: Health. What if, like in Philadelphia last year, Bynum doesn't play? He is low-risk, high-reward on a one-year deal, but is currently projected to play only half the season. Irving has not been able to stay healthy in his two years in the league, missing a total of 38 out of a possible 146 games. I already mentioned Varejao, who also has had a problem staying healthy consistently, including missing 56 games last year. Though a defensive mastermind, I have my concerns over Mike Brown returning as the head coach.

Season Win Total Pick: Over 40.5 wins.

Detroit Pistons (2012-13: 29-53 SU, 40-41-1 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: +1800
Season Win Total: 41.0

Why Bet The Pistons: After the top five playoff spots in the Eastern Conference figure to go: Heat-Bulls-Pacers-Nets-Knicks, the final three spots are up for grabs. From my Cavs' season win total pick, you'd figure I have them grabbing one (and you'd be right!). I'll call for the Pistons to grab another as they too should be one of the most improved teams in the league. They will have one of the better front courts in the entire league (seriously!) with Andre Drummond, Josh Smith, Greg Monroe and Josh Harrellson. This is going to be a very trendy pick to go Over the season win total.

Why Not To Bet The Pistons: This team is young and has mostly unproven commodities. I'm not convinced they are going to shoot the ball very well as the free agent acquisitions of Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings could bring improvement, but a lot of headaches too. Smith was never able to make "the quantum leap" in Atlanta and this team reminds me a lot of those Hawks, which means good and not great.

Season Win Total Pick: Over 41 wins.

Indiana Pacers (2012-13: 49-32 SU, 42-39 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: +140
Season Win Total: 53.5

Why Bet The Pacers: Despite what looks like a very tough battle to repeat as Central Division Champs, the Pacers are a lock to finish in the Top 3 in the Eastern Conference from where I sit. Last year, they took Miami to a deciding 7th game in the Eastern Conference Finals and should only get better this season with a fine young nucleus of Roy Hibbert-George Hill-David West-Lance Stephenson-Paul George. George, in particular, appears to be ready to take the next step. Oh yeah, they also get a healthy Danny Granger back.

Why Not To Bet The Pacers: Honestly, the only reason is a lack of depth, though the return of a healthy Granger should help alleviate that. Last year saw five Pacers players start at least 72 games and that quintet was largely responsible for the bulk of the team's production on both ends of the floor. Their best reserve from last year, Tyler Hansbrough, is now in Toronto. Indiana's reserves were outscored by an average of 21.8 points per 48 minutes by the Heat in last year's Eastern Conference Finals

Season Win Total Pick: Over 53.5 wins

Milwaukee Bucks (2012-13: 38-44 SU, 37-45 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: +6600
Season Win Total: 28.5

Why Bet The Bucks: Searching...for....reasons. Well, I didn't really like their starting back court of Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings last year. They do have some depth (no star) and a good front court. I'm a big fan of shot-blocking machine Larry Sanders in particular.

Why Not To Bet the Bucks: With the Bulls and Pacers likely to battle for the Central Division crown and ending up around 60 wins, and the Cavs and Pistons figuring to be two of the more improved teams in the entire league, somebody has to lose games in this division and that figures to be the Bucks. They were a lucky playoff participant last year with only 38 wins and figure to be a lot worse this year minus their starting back court of Ellis and Jennings.

Season Win Total Pick: Under 28.5 wins.

**Udog** · 10-15-2013, 09:59 AM

NCAAB betting: Top 3 darkhorse contenders

[B]With a new NCAA basketball season on the horizon, several teams have been installed as the preseason favorites to reach the Final Four next March. Kentucky leads the way at 4-1 thanks to the presence of draft lottery locks Julius Randle and Willie Cauley-Stein, while Duke (7-1) and Kansas (8-1) are next in line.

Here's a look at three teams that come into the season as darkhorses for the NCAA championship (odds courtesy LVH):

Oklahoma State Cowboys (40-1)

Led by standout point guard Marcus Smart, the Cowboys could potentially boast one of the deepest and most dangerous lineups in the Big 12. Smart was sensational as a freshman with Oklahoma State, averaging 15.4 points to go along with 4.2 assists and three steals. He, along with guard Markel Brown and swingman Le'Bryan Nash, make up one of the top backcourt units in the nation. Shooting was an issue for Oklahoma State last season, but if Smart and others can improve on last year's totals, the Cowboys could make a run at the Final Four.

VCU Rams (40-1)

Virginia Commonwealth is in good shape heading into the season despite being without standout seniors Darius Theus and Troy Daniels. The Rams' decision to implement a press-at-all-times defence (appropriately named "HAVOC") has met its share of detractors - and moments of defensive collapse - but with a team full of young, athletic players at all positions, VCU is in its best shape ever to force turnovers by the boatload. If the Rams can figure out how to adjust HAVOC to suit all adversaries - particularly those with speedy guards - it could be a long season for opposing teams.

Iowa Hawkeyes (100-1)

The Hawkeyes find themselves in a loaded Big Ten, matched up against powerhouses Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan. But Iowa may find itself right in the mix thanks to a nationally renowned defense. The Hawkeyes played seven games against ranked opponents a season ago and lost five of them by single digits - a key run here or there, and Iowa may have found itself marching to a Final Four appearance rather than settling for a loss to Baylor in the NIT title game. With a softer schedule and a year of seasoning for the team's core players, things should be different this year.

**Udog** · 10-15-2013, 10:00 AM

NFL betting: Three cold teams to avoid in Week 7

Whether it's a spate of injuries, a stretch of inconsistency or a little bit of both, several teams face daunting tasks in Week 7 of the NFL season. Bettors should be wary of putting their faith in these clubs, at least while they remain cold.

Here are three teams to avoid in Week 7:

Buffalo Bills (2-4, at Miami)

The Bills dropped a 27-24 overtime decision to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday despite erasing a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit. Buffalo could be 5-1 at this point - having lost three of four games by fewer than seven points - yet could just as easily be 0-6 following a one-point win over Carolina and a three-point triumph over Baltimore. Adding journeyman Matt Flynn to the quarterback mess isn't going to help a team that ranks 28th in average passing yards per game, squandering what has been a robust rush attack (148.8 ypg).

Houston Texans (2-4, at Kansas City)

Things have gone from very bad to much, much worse for the Texans, who were manhandled from start to finish in a one-sided loss to the St. Louis Rams. Despite strong showings from pre-injury Matt Schaub and a rejuvenated Arian Foster, Houston had all sorts of problems containing all facets of the St. Louis offense. The Texans also surrendered an interception-return touchdown for the fifth straight week, which certainly didn't help matters - nor will a Week 7 matchup with a Chiefs team that has yet to lose while boasting a plus-87 point differential.

New York Jets (3-3, vs. New England)

The Geno Smith honeymoon may be over after the rookie quarterback struggled throughout Sunday's 19-6 loss to the previously winless Pittsburgh Steelers. Smith finished with just 201 passing yards while throwing a pair of interceptions in the Jets' second terrible showing in a three-week span. The defense will keep this team in most games, but the Smith-led offense has managed just 29 points in its three losses - and will be in tough next Sunday against a Patriots team that has allowed just six passing touchdowns through six games.

**Udog** · 10-15-2013, 10:00 AM

NCAAF line watch: Florida State backers sit tight

Each week during the college football season, renowned Las Vegas wiseguy and Covers Expert Bruce Marshall looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Connecticut Huskies at Cincinnati Bearcats (-14)

There are a handful of games each week in which the only moves in one particular direction are going to come at the outset. Such as last week’s Hawaii-UNLV game, when the “sharps” moved the initial price in the Rebels’ direction, then watched as the public gradually shoved the line the other way the rest of the week.

This week’s example of a team “only the sharps could love” is troubled and winless UConn, which surprisingly generated enough early action at +16 for this Saturday’s American clash at Cincinnati that the price quickly dipped as low as 14 at many Nevada wagering outlets.

In truth, however, the burst of early Huskies’ money was probably more of a reaction to perceived overvalue on the part of Tommy Tuberville’s Cincy, which has dropped four of its last five against the spread after opening with a lopsided win over Purdue, a result that in retrospect perhaps distorted the perception of the Bearcats.

But Cincy’s failure to cover in three straight versus teams all winless at the time (Miami-Ohio, South Florida, and Temple) has understandably soured the marketplace (and, apparently, the sharp money) on the Bearcats.

We suspect the early move on this Saturday’s game was almost completely due to the growing anti-Cincinnati sentiment among the sharps.

The public money, however, might not share the same degree of misgiving about the Bearcats, and is instead more likely to react to the negative news surrounding UConn, which has not only changed coaches in midstream (Paul Pasqualoni out, o.c. T.J. Weist promoted to interim HC), but has also switched QBs.

Indeed, Weist’s first move was benching incumbent starter Chandler Whitmer and replacing him with true frosh Tim Boyle, who proceeded to complete only 15 of his 43 pass attempts in his first start last Saturday against USF.

Series trends between these sides also heavily favor the home team, which has covered seven of the last eight meetings.

The bottom line is that we foresee no further money moves in UConn’s direction. There are enough 14s currently posted at Las Vegas books for Cincy-inclined backers to take advantage ASAP at the current reduced price before the spread inevitably moves above that key number later in the week.

Spread to wait on

Florida State Seminoles (-3) at Clemson Tigers

It has been a while since the nation has been as transfixed upon an ACC gridiron battle as it will for this Saturday’s FSU at Clemson tussle. Expect action to be brisk at the Las Vegas sports books for this clash with not only ACC, but BCS and even Heisman Trophy ramifications.

Early movement in this price was hard to detect, but it’s what we didn’t see that caught our attention. Specifically, there was not enough appetite for the Seminoles among the sharps or the first wave of public money to move the price above the key number of FSU -3. In fact, for a short while there were a few stray 2.5s popping up in the marketplace, but for the most part there has been no early movement off of the key number of 3.

All of this is illuminating, suggesting the Tigers have earned a degree of respect in the marketplace. While Clemson’s spread form has been indifferent in recent weeks, and the Tigers were involved in an unexpected scrap last Saturday vs. Boston College, most of the public money will be recalling Clemson’s rousing opener against SEC rep Georgia, a game in which the Tigers prevailed in exciting fashion. Along with the Chick-fil-A Bowl win over LSU last New Year’s Eve, Dabo Swinney’s squad has been making a positive impression in recent high-profile games.

Indicators are that Seminole backers probably don’t have to worry about the price at Death Valley to rise above the key number of 3. But there figures to be ample opportunity to lay less than 3 as the week progresses, so we suggest that FSU backers ought to sit tight and wait for opportunities to play this game beneath a very key number later in the week.

Total to watch

Central Florida Knights at Louisville Cardinals

Though the totals market is generally a bit thinner than the straight-bet board, oddsmakers are nonetheless sensitive to those Over and Under trends as well. Most definitely, the books do not want to continue getting beat by the same totals trends, which the sharp money can ruthlessly capitalize upon.

Which is why the oddsmakers no longer waste any time with “soft totals” that can be moved quickly in one direction. The books usually have an idea in which direction the totals money is likely to flow, so they will adjust the prices almost from the outset.

Posting Oregon and Baylor totals into the stratosphere from the outset are examples this season of the books proactively protecting themselves from too much exposure on one side of the total wagers which are more likely to be exploited by sharp money.

Along that line of thought, oddsmakers know totals results patterns as well as pointspread result trends, and while we have not seen as many pronounced totals trends yet this season, a couple of the primo Under teams do get together on Friday night at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium as Louisville plays host to UCF in an American showdown.

No one needs to remind the books that the Cardinals are Under 5-1 this season, and the Knights are 4-1 to the Under as well.

Knowing that such trends can develop a quick following, don’t be surprised if the first total you see on ‘Ville-UCF is a bit lower than might be expected.

**Udog** · 10-15-2013, 10:04 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Boston at Detroit
The Red Sox look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is 1-10 in Justin Verlander's last 11 starts when the total is set from 7 to 8 1/2. Boston is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+140). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15

Game 913-914: Boston at Detroit (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 16.683; Detroit 10.092
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+140); Over

Game 911-912: St. Louis at LA Dodgers (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 16.389; LA Dodgers (Nolasco) 17.783
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 15

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ST LOUIS (102 - 67) at LA DODGERS (95 - 73) - 8:05 PM
LANCE LYNN (R) vs. RICKY NOLASCO (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 5-4 (+0.7 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.7 Units)

LANCE LYNN vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
LYNN is 2-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.50 and a WHIP of 1.167.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.0 units)

RICKY NOLASCO vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
NOLASCO is 3-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.99 and a WHIP of 1.466.
His team's record is 4-6 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-3. (+3.7 units)

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BOSTON (101 - 67) at DETROIT (97 - 72) - 4:05 PM
JOHN LACKEY (R) vs. JUSTIN VERLANDER (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-4 (+1.3 Units) against BOSTON this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)

JOHN LACKEY vs. DETROIT since 1997
LACKEY is 6-3 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.322.
His team's record is 7-5 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-7. (-3.7 units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. BOSTON since 1997
VERLANDER is 3-4 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 3.63 and a WHIP of 1.197.
His team's record is 5-6 (-1.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.5 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 15

Tigers-Red Sox

Lackey is 3-1, 5.57 in his last five starts, four of which went over total; Boston scored 34 runs in the five games. He is 0-1, 3.14 in two starts against the Tigers this season- Red Sox scored three runs in those two games.

Verlander is 1-0, 0.00 in his last four starts, throwing 27 scoreless innings in a row; all four starts stayed under total, with Detroit scoring six runs in the four games (losing 1-0 twice). He allowed four runs in five IP in his only '13 start vs Boston, a game Detroit's bullpen later won 7-5.

Boston rallied from down 5-1 in 8th inning to even series with 6-5 walkoff win Sunday; nine of their last eleven games went over total. Red Sox are 4-5 vs Detroit this season, with the home team 6-3 in those games. Boston lost four of their last six road games.

Detroit won three of its last four games, allowing 12 runs, after losing seven of previous 10 games; eight of their last eleven stayed under the total. Tigers won seven of their last ten home games.

Dodgers-Cardinals

Lynn is 3-2, 2.79 in his last five starts and also threw two scoreless innings in relief in Friday's Game 1 win; over is 4-1-1 in his last six road starts. Lynn also blanked LA for six innings in a 7-0 win May 24.

Nolasco had rough end of September, going 0-2, 14.25 in his last three starts; he is 2-0, 3.00 in two starts (12 IP) against St Louis this season. Nolasco's last five starts all went over the total. This is his first start since September 29.

Dodgers are 5-5 against St Louis this year, with seven of ten games going under the total. LA is 4-3 in playoffs but 10-13 in last 23 games overall; all three games in this series stayed under the total-- they've scored five runs in 31 innings in this series so far.

Cardinals won 13 of their last 17 games, but lost three of last four road games; they allowed five runs in first three games of this series- four of their last five games stayed under total.

MLB

Tuesday, October 15

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Trend Report
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4:07 PM
BOSTON vs. DETROIT
Boston is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Boston's last 18 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against Boston

8:07 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. LA DODGERS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games when playing St. Louis
LA Dodgers are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games when playing at home against St. Louis

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MLB

Tuesday, October 15

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Red Sox at Tigers: What bettors need to know
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Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers

Series is tied 1-1.

David Ortiz added to his playoff lore in Game 2 with the big blow of a memorable comeback and the Boston Red Sox seek to take a 2-1 lead in the American League Championship Series when the scene moves to Detroit for Game 3 on Tuesday. Boston recovered from a five-run deficit with Ortiz hitting a game-tying grand slam in the eighth and Jarrod Saltalamacchia driving in the winning run an inning later. The Tigers attempt to recover behind red-hot Justin Verlander.

Verlander hasn’t allowed a run in 15 postseason innings this October and Boston hitters have struggled against Detroit starters in the series, totaling one run and two hits while striking out 25 times in 13 innings against Anibal Sanchez and Max Scherzer. The Tigers appeared headed to a 2-0 series lead prior to the bullpen meltdown that saw Ortiz belt the 15th postseason homer of his career, a blast off Joaquin Benoit that Detroit right fielder Torii Hunter was unable to grab and flipped over the low wall and into the Boston bullpen. “Postseason is something that can work both ways for you,” Ortiz said of his playoff success. “It can go well if you stay calm. Or it can go bad if you try to overdo things.”

TV: 4:07 p.m. ET, Fox

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with wind blowing in from CF at 11 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox RH John Lackey (10-13, 3.52 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Justin Verlander (13-12, 3.46)

Lackey defeated Tampa Bay in the AL Division Series when he gave up four runs and seven hits in 5 1/3 innings. He went 0-1 with a 3.14 ERA in two starts against Detroit this season and his career mark is 6-3 with a 3.89 ERA in 12 outings. Lackey went 3-7 with a 4.35 ERA after the All-Star break, a huge drop from a 2.78 mark beforehand.

Verlander struck out 21 while allowing six hits and two walks against Oakland in the ALDS. He allowed four runs and seven hits in five innings in a no-decision against Boston on June 23 and his career record is 3-4 with a 3.65 ERA in 11 starts. Verlander was 6-7 with a 3.73 ERA in 17 regular-season home starts.

TRENDS:

* Red Sox are 1-7 in the last eight meetings in Detroit.
* Over is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.
* Red Sox are 4-1 in Lackey's last five starts.
* Tigers are 2-10 in Verlander's last 12 starts.

UMP TRENDS - Ron Kulpa:

* Tigers are 1-4 in Verlander's last five road starts with Kulpa behind home plate.
* Under is 5-0 in Verlander's last five home with Kulpa behind home plate.
* Home team is 5-1 in Kulpa's last six games behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Tigers 3B Miguel Cabrera has two homers in his last three games after a power drought that began on Sept. 18 due to groin and abdominal injuries.

2. Ortiz is batting .370 with two homers in 27 career at-bats against Verlander.

3. Hunter injured his head, neck and shoulder with his tumble into the bullpen but said he will play in Game 3.

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**Udog** · 10-15-2013, 10:07 AM

NHL
Dunkel

San Jose at St. Louis
The Blues look to build on their 7-1 record in their last 8 games against the Sharks. St. Louis is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Blues favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15

Game 1-2: Buffalo at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.498; NY Islanders 10.312
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 3-4: Minnesota at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.356; Toronto 12.760
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-150); Over

Game 5-6: Vancouver at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.690; Philadelphia 10.160
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-115); Under

Game 7-8: Edmonton at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.735; Pittsburgh 10.868
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-240); 6
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+200); Over

Game 9-10: Chicago at Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 10.511; Carolina 11.549
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+135); Under

Game 11-12: Columbus at Detroit (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.563; Detroit 12.909
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 13-14: Los Angeles at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.565; Tampa Bay 12.578
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 15-16: San Jose at St. Louis (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.047; St. Louis 12. 563
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130); Under

Game 17-18: Florida at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 10.422; Nashville 11.908
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-160); 5
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-160); Under

Game 19-20: Montreal at Winnipeg (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 10.722; Winnipeg 11.969
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+100); Over

Game 21-22: Dallas at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.402; Colorado 12.741
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 23-24: Ottawa at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.497; Phoenix 10.531
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+120); Under

**Udog** · 10-15-2013, 10:07 AM

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 15

Hot teams
-- Maple Leafs won five of their first six games. Minnesota won its last three games, giving up one goal in each game.
-- Penguins won four of their first five games.
-- Chicago is 3-2 in first five games, with last four decided by one goal.
-- Kings won last three games, allowing four goals. Lightning won three of last four games.
-- San Jose won its first five games, outscoring opponents 24-7. Blues won their last four games, outscoring foes 19-7.
-- Canadiens won three of their last four games.
-- Red Wings won four of their first six games. Blue Jackets won their first two games on foreign ice, allowing three goals.
-- Colorado won its first five games, allowing four goals.
-- Coyotes won last three games, allowing six goals.

Cold teams
-- Buffalo is 0-7 this season, outscored 18-7. Islanders lost three of their last four games.
-- Flyers lost five of their first six games. Vancouver lost its last two games, both 4-1.
-- Edmonton lost five of its first five games.
-- Hurricanes lost three of their last four games.
-- Panthers losrt four of their last five games. Nashville is 2-3 in its first five games.
-- Winnipeg lost three of its last four games.
-- Dallas split its first four games, scoring nine goals.
-- Senators lost their last four games, allowing 16 goals.

Series records
-- Maple Leafs won their last two games with Minnesota, 3-0/4-1.
-- Islanders lost four of last five games with Buffalo.
-- Road team won four of last six Vancouver-Philly games (3-3 overall).
-- Penguins won four of its last five games with Edmonton.
-- Blackhawks won three of last four games with Carolina.
-- Kings won last two games with Tampa Bay, allowing one goal.
-- Blues won six of last seven games with San Jose.
-- Predators won four of last five games with Florida.
-- Jets lost five in row, eight of last nine games with Montreal.
-- Columbus won four of last five games with the Red Wings.
-- Stars won six of last nine games with Colorado.
-- Home side won five of last six Ottawa-Phoenix games.

Totals
-- Last two Minnesota-Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Islander-Sabre games stayed under the total.
-- Five of six Philly games stayed under the total.
-- Five of six Oiler games, last three Pittsburgh games went over the total.
-- Last four Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Los Angeles games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four St Louis games went over the total.
-- Under is 3-1-2 in last six Nashville games.
-- Last four Winnipeg games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Columbus-Detroit games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Phoenix games went over the total.

**Udog** · 10-15-2013, 10:08 AM

NHL

Tuesday, October 15

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NY ISLANDERS
Buffalo is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
NY Islanders are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Buffalo
NY Islanders are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games

7:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. CAROLINA
Chicago is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Chicago's last 17 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina9-2-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Chicago

7:00 PM
EDMONTON vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games on the road
Edmonton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Pittsburgh's last 24 games at home
Pittsburgh is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home

7:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. TORONTO
Minnesota is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Toronto
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Toronto's last 13 games at home

7:00 PM
VANCOUVER vs. PHILADELPHIA
Vancouver is 5-16-1 SU in its last 22 games ,when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Vancouver's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games when playing Vancouver

7:30 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home

8:00 PM
COLUMBUS vs. DETROIT
Columbus is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Columbus is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Detroit is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
Detroit is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Columbus

8:00 PM
FLORIDA vs. NASHVILLE
Florida is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nashville's last 6 games when playing at home against Florida
Nashville5-0-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Florida

8:00 PM
MONTREAL vs. WINNIPEG
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games on the road
Montreal is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
Winnipeg is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Winnipeg's last 25 games at home

8:00 PM
SAN JOSE vs. ST. LOUIS
San Jose is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Jose's last 10 games
St. Louis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Jose
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of St. Louis's last 19 games at home

9:00 PM
DALLAS vs. COLORADO
Dallas is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Dallas's last 18 games on the road
Colorado is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Colorado's last 11 games when playing at home against Dallas

10:00 PM
OTTAWA vs. PHOENIX
Ottawa is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Ottawa is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Phoenix is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Ottawa

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**Udog** · 10-15-2013, 10:56 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 15

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BUFFALO (0-6-0-1, 1 pts.) at NY ISLANDERS (2-2-0-1, 5 pts.) - 10/15/2013, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY ISLANDERS is 3-3 (+0.1 Units) against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NY ISLANDERS is 3-3-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.5 Units)

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MINNESOTA (3-1-0-2, 8 pts.) at TORONTO (5-1-0-0, 10 pts.) - 10/15/2013, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 130-135 ATS (-19.9 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
TORONTO is 6-16 ATS (+22.5 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 59-75 ATS (-52.6 Units) in home games after a non-conference game since 1996.
TORONTO is 95-118 ATS (-68.8 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 1-0-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.0 Units)

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VANCOUVER (3-3-0-0, 6 pts.) at PHILADELPHIA (1-5-0-0, 2 pts.) - 10/15/2013, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANCOUVER is 56-75 ATS (-33.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 134-84 ATS (+25.7 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 66-43 ATS (+21.3 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 59-63 ATS (-57.6 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.0 Units)

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EDMONTON (1-4-0-1, 3 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (4-1-0-0, 8 pts.) - 10/15/2013, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 161-122 ATS (+19.4 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 1-0 (+1.1 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 1-0-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.0 Units)

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CHICAGO (3-1-0-1, 7 pts.) at CAROLINA (2-2-0-2, 6 pts.) - 10/15/2013, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 247-278 ATS (-114.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
CHICAGO is 126-145 ATS (-60.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 (+1.2 Units) against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.0 Units)

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COLUMBUS (2-2-0-0, 4 pts.) at DETROIT (4-2-0-0, 8 pts.) - 10/15/2013, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBUS is 6-5 (+4.1 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
COLUMBUS is 6-5-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.9 Units)

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LOS ANGELES (4-2-0-0, 8 pts.) at TAMPA BAY (3-2-0-0, 6 pts.) - 10/15/2013, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 1-0-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.1 Units)

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SAN JOSE (5-0-0-0, 10 pts.) at ST LOUIS (4-0-0-0, 8 pts.) - 10/15/2013, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 12-4 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 158-129 ATS (+23.1 Units) in road games first half of the season since 1996.
SAN JOSE is 147-110 ATS (+28.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 10-2 (+7.6 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 10-2-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.6 Units)

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FLORIDA (2-4-0-0, 4 pts.) at NASHVILLE (2-3-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/15/2013, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 262-302 ATS (-94.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NASHVILLE is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
NASHVILLE is 1-0-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.2 Units)

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MONTREAL (3-2-0-0, 6 pts.) at WINNIPEG (3-3-0-0, 6 pts.) - 10/15/2013, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 34-57 ATS (+92.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 3-11 ATS (-10.0 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 7-18 ATS (+25.2 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 5-1 (+4.0 Units) against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 5-1-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.0 Units)

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DALLAS (2-2-0-0, 4 pts.) at COLORADO (5-0-0-0, 10 pts.) - 10/15/2013, 9:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 4-3 (+0.8 Units) against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-3-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.1 Units)

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OTTAWA (1-2-0-2, 4 pts.) at PHOENIX (4-2-0-0, 8 pts.) - 10/15/2013, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 131-151 ATS (-55.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
PHOENIX is 292-262 ATS (-57.5 Units) first half of the season since 1996.
PHOENIX is 192-165 ATS (+23.2 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 1-0-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.0 Units)

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**Udog** · 10-15-2013, 11:13 AM

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that has proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Letdown spot

Missouri shook up the SEC landscape with a 41-26 beating of Georgia Saturday. The Tigers capitalized on two interceptions and two fumbles against the Bulldogs, picking up the program’s biggest victory since moving to the SEC. That notable win has the Tigers primed for a letdown in Week 8.

Mizzou is back in Columbia this weekend, hosting the Florida Gators as a slight home underdog. The Gators are off a tight loss to LSU and come into Saturday with bad intentions. Florida boasts one of the best defenses in the land and could feast on an offense missing its key cog, with Tigers QB James Franklin out with a separated shoulder.

Lookahead spot

Earlier this NFL season, before Pittsburgh and Minnesota made the trip to London, England, we pointed out that the last 12 teams to play in London (2007-2012) were a combined 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS in the week previous to making the trip to England. The Steelers and Vikings followed suit and failed to cover in the week before jumping the pond, both losing SU and ATS in Week 3.

Now, with the last 14 teams combining for a 4-10 ATS mark the week before leaving for London – 28.5 winning percentage – eyes are on the San Francisco 49ers and Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6 of the season. The Niners and Jags, who tangle in Wembley Stadium on Oct. 27, are in lookahead mode this Sunday. San Francisco is a 4-point road favorite in Tennessee while Jacksonville is getting 9.5 points at home to San Diego in Week 7.

Schedule spot

The Vancouver Canucks hit the bricks for the majority of the month, starting in Philadelphia Tuesday night. The Canucks are on a seven-game road run which has them playing four games this week to open this chunk of schedule.

Vancouver has split its first two road games of the season, losing at San Jose and squeaking out an overtime win at Calgary. The Canucks travel across the country for games against the Flyers, Sabres, Penguins, Blue Jackets, Islanders, Devils and Blues. That’s a tough test for a team still finding its form under a new head coach.

**Udog** · 10-15-2013, 12:39 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Tuesday, October 15

Boston at Detroit, 4:05 ET - Game 3 - Tied 1-1
Lackey: BOSTON is 28-40 SU after a win by 2 runs or less
Verlander: 36-10 TSR at home when the total is 7.5 or less

Announcement

Tuesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/15 (MLB, CFL, NHL, Misc.)

Tuesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/15 (MLB, CFL, NHL, Misc.)

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